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Handslaps and Fisticuff: A PYP Mini [M][T] - Page 14

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
March 08 2014 11:49 GMT
#2152
Also PGO wouldn't survive bullets (probably).
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
March 08 2014 11:51 GMT
#2153
Maybe, but he needs to die in any case. And we can afford him to die even if he is town. Palmar, shoot!
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
March 08 2014 11:53 GMT
#2155
Don't worry so much. It'll be fine. I would be very surprised if we lost from this position even if we mislynched/shot a couple of players.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
March 08 2014 11:57 GMT
#2158
Tbh I was prepared for that. I already facepalmed in the pre-game.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
March 08 2014 11:58 GMT
#2159
Oh wow I gained a new portrait!
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
March 08 2014 12:03 GMT
#2161
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
March 08 2014 12:03 GMT
#2162
##Vote Shoot Hopeless
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
March 08 2014 13:54 GMT
#2170
I wouldn't say it's completely impossible since this many power roles are otherwise quite town-favored.

But of course I know I'm town and Oats is 100% confirmed town to me (he has no role so he couldn't possibly be immune to my check).
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
March 08 2014 14:13 GMT
#2173
Let's see... Here are the remaining players (the roles are almost all confirmed, the colors are at least semi-certain):

LSB - joat
Xatalos - dt
Palmar - ass
Artanis[Xp] - jk
gumshoe - vet
Hopeless1der - vigi
prplhz - day vigi
Oatsmaster - vanilla

That leaves 4 sensible suspects for the last remaining Mafia:

LSB - joat
gumshoe - vet
Hopeless1der - vigi
prplhz - day vigi

gusmhoe hasn't really done anything, but sadly I can't expect more from him as town. Null.

LSB claims to have greenchecked me. It would be risky to do as scum, since he would have no way to defend himself if I redchecked him. Slightly town.

prplhz claims to have shot gumshoe, but gumshoe still lives.

Hopeless also claims to have shot gumshoe.

The most likely explanation is that one of them is lying. It's probably Hopeless. They both also have the most dangerous roles in the hands of scum.

So what I propose is:

Palmar shoots Hopeless
If the game still continues, we lynch prplhz
If the game still continues (which I find very unlikely), we kill gumshoe and LSB

I find it very unlikely that we lose this way.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
March 08 2014 14:30 GMT
#2176
I think Artanis should roll a 50/50 RNG between jailing Oats or me. Scum will otherwise almost certainly shoot one of us, but in that case they might shoot Artanis. And if we kill Hopeless and he's town there should be no more than 1 KP at night anyway.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
March 08 2014 14:30 GMT
#2177
Palmar you shooting Hopeless? Remember that there's a time limit on your ability.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
March 08 2014 14:32 GMT
#2179
The more I think about it, it almost has to be Hopeless. I just want to see him flipped :/
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
March 08 2014 15:37 GMT
#2188
For Oats to be scum these conditions would have to be met:

- gumshoe didn't pick a role
- Oats picked a role (Veteran) and lied about it despite the lie being easily verifiable after gumshoe flips
- Veteran transformed into a super role that is immune to Cop checks, can KP, bypass protection etc.

Yeah... no.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
March 08 2014 16:00 GMT
#2196
If gumshoe is Veteran, how could Oats have a role?
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
March 08 2014 17:15 GMT
#2214
Yeah, one reason I want to shoot Hopeless ASAP is that as scum he could end the game faster than other players like gumshoe or LSB.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
March 08 2014 17:17 GMT
#2216
The additional 1 KP would come from roles like yours.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
March 08 2014 18:49 GMT
#2231
Well, that took out the easiest explanation. I didn't really think more thinking would need to be done, but here you go...

Now we know that Hopeless shot gumshoe once. This means that either A) prplhz was lying when he said he used his day-vig on gumshoe or B) gumshoe could somehow survive 2 KP or C) Artanis jailed gumshoe / Hopeless or D) someone bus drived gumshoe and marv.

C seems very, very unlikely. Artanis would need to have RB/save + KP. I heavily doubt that there would be bonus KP through any modifications to a role - it's just too big of a change. Artanis -> very likely town.

It's plausible that gumshoe could somehow survive 2 KP, but not very likely. It'd also be pretty weird if gumshoe could survive 2 KP AND kill marv+rayn through protection at the same time. It's just way too much stuff in one role. I really don't think gumshoe is our remaining scum. gumshoe -> pretty likely town.

prplhz could have lied about his day-vig on gumshoe. Maybe his role changed from day-vig to some kind of a NK role? It doesn't make too much sense though... Day-vig would be fit for scum the way it is. And if his role is the regular day-vig, he would have no way to kill marv+rayn. Also prphlz would have at least semi-bussed both yamato and austin early on. prlhz -> null?

I guess LSB as a scum JOAT could have his DT check replaced with a bus driver ability or something (DT would be useless for scum). It's a bit far-fetched, but possible. It would explain everything perfectly and it wouldn't even be OP in any way. It's problematic that LSB took a heavy risk by claiming greencheck on me (he could do nothing but concede if I redchecked him), but the situation for scumteam is pretty dire, so maybe he just took the risk. LSB -> scum?

The LSB bus driver theory seems surprisingly like the best explanation. Artanis is very likely town, I don't believe gumshoe could both survive 2 KP and kill marv+rayn, and prplhz would need to have his day-vig transformed into some more powerful NK role.

What do you think Artanis?
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
March 08 2014 19:14 GMT
#2236
Basically every other mechanically possible option (Artanis, gumshoe, prplhz) doesn't make much sense one way or another. I'd argue that gumshoe isn't even really mechanically possible (he'd need to be a double Veteran + have KP that would pass through protection = mission impossible!).

But LSB having bus driver as one of his JOAT options would just... explain everything. It wouldn't actually even be OP in any way and it's not *that* far-fetched (austin did have a GF modification after all and nothing like that was mentioned in the original roles). And him having bus driver would explain everything neatly:

1) Artanis jailed marv
2) LSB bus drived marv-gumshoe
3) Hopeless shot gumshoe (-> marv died)
4) LSB used Mafia KP on rayn

There's nothing weird or odd in any of these events. It's not even very weird that JOAT would be modified for Mafia to replace DT with something like bus driver.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
March 08 2014 19:23 GMT
#2237
There's also something pretty weird in LSB's filter. Early on LSB posts this (distancing?):

On March 06 2014 15:46 LSB wrote:
As for alternative lynches who's name isn't LSB

I'm all for Austinmcc, mainly off of this.

Show nested quote +
On March 06 2014 10:07 austinmcc wrote:
Seems like everyone has chosen a nemesis this game.

Hopeless and prpl had their bit.

yamato and marv i guess

we'll let rayn and LSB square off

gumshoe and artanis?

OATSMASTER I CHALLENGE YOU TO BE MY NEMESIS. ALSO, WHY AM I RIGHT ABOUT EVERYTHING?

Tying peoples alignment together is pretty bad.

I also don't like hoplessder, he has been sheeping rayn so hard


BUT later on he has conveniently forgotten all about austin and brings forth a group of new suspects (although Hopeless remains - and he reluctantly calls yamato a "lurker lynch"):

On March 07 2014 04:15 LSB wrote:
Yamato - lurking hard. Day 1 lurker lynch isn't bad

Gumshoe - although wishy washy, I totes understand the point "How about lets not let people who propose plans take highly abusable roles?". Especially since it seemed like town would follow the plan, it would be a bad idea to sacrifice yourself to send yourself down the list. I'm gonna read him as town.

Hopleless1der - Has done nothing but sheep, has very little original thought, just setup talk. I have no idea what is going on this game, but compared to his last game in Shadowed, there is a huge discrepancy.

Marv-
Is this what town marv would say?
Show nested quote +
On March 06 2014 20:27 marvellosity wrote:
so no-one talked to me about things i should be choosing between :<

Most the rest of his filter seems fine.


Then he disappears until N1 and never talks about anything related to the lynch. He's clearly not very invested in how the lynch turned out (since, in hindsight, it was between 2 scum).
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
March 08 2014 19:27 GMT
#2239
I'm now personally sold on this LSB bus driver theory. It makes more sense than anything else.

##Vote LSB
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
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