Also I think you should lower the possible blue power that town has... I do think it's op. Maybe 1 max blue role or something like that. Or no blue roles, that'd be nice too!
[S] Shadowed Mini Mafia: The Reboot
Forum Index > TL Mafia |
Balla24
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Also I think you should lower the possible blue power that town has... I do think it's op. Maybe 1 max blue role or something like that. Or no blue roles, that'd be nice too! | ||
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On February 06 2014 08:40 jaybrundage wrote: Don't be scum Balla I don't wanna have to lynch my clone D: Holy shit though we literally are clones like wtf... it's gonna be so stupid if one of us rolls scum.... It'll just be like: "Man wtf Balla you didn't think exactly like me you're probably scum ##vote Balla24" | ||
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On February 06 2014 08:42 Hopeless1der wrote: You say that now, but I do that as town as well. LXIV most recently. EDIT: whoops ur not in the current game | ||
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On February 06 2014 08:34 JonnyLaw wrote: Man I felt so vindicated when LM flipped doc. The let down. I can't imagine what you were thinking during that whole ordeal: - Man i'm gaining steam, JB is so fucking scum. - GOD DAMNIT i just outted the doctor - OH SICK FUCKING 100% CONFIRMED MAFIA! - (lonemeow flips) FUCKING KNEW IT YOU LITTLE PIECE OF SHIT - (artanis) god fucking damnit | ||
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On February 06 2014 09:01 Koshi wrote: - (koshi) trolololololol koshi's just like: "uh what? ok? LOL" | ||
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- fuck jb is totally scum - god damnit now i have to cc or i get lynched and i probably will still anywyas cause I always get lynched as doctor - (gets lynched) fuck this im out. | ||
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On February 06 2014 09:03 Blazinghand wrote: Little known fact, JB and I started playing mafia basically in the same game, hosted by my all-time favorite host, Zona. It was a newbie game with a couple of vets, notably Palmar smurfing in as Electricblack. Before then JB had played in MM X, and we had both taken part in the massive clusterfuck that was TL Mafia XLVII. Suki is pretty ancient too. In her newbie games she has like... sandroba and sciberbia IIRC. | ||
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I claim Harry Potter. EDIT: LOL I JUST HEARD SIDESPRANG'S COACH WAS HOLYFLARE FUCK I CAN'T STOP LAUGHING. | ||
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On February 06 2014 09:11 Toadesstern wrote: Everytime you say that I remember that game were you fakeclaimed Doctor as a VT despite town having a real doctor and told everyone that noone needs to worry about Syllo (I think it was Syllo?) because you're going to protect him and the real Doctor ended up protecting someone else because of that. Obviously Syllo (or whoever it was, it was a strong VET though) died that night. Was that the legendary annul game? I mean you're not that bad... but you're weird and always have these weird, very complex plans that in 99% of the cases will fail horribly. HAH! That's fucking awesome! It's so good because this game. I was going to claim vig and hope that everybody joined me and claimed vig with me so that vig gets a guaranteed shot on jaybrundage without RB. But foolishness told me not to | ||
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On February 06 2014 09:22 suki wrote: Like I would have been like.. Great. Now we have a fake doctor claim AND a fake vig claim. I'd probably shoot Jay and then push for your lynch day 2 haha. Haha yeah, it'd be too hard to coordinate for everybody to claim vig so it wasn't worth it. Maybe it would have been worth it for me to just say "EVERYBODY CLAIM VIG", then there's some wifom already for mafia. I would have retracted as soon as day 2 started, would be pretty easy to explain myself. | ||
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Especially you jonny i think you'd be funny here. | ||
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Exactly. You'd be great for voice! | ||
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On February 06 2014 15:37 LoneMeow wrote: You'd just mislynch me on D1, I'm terrible at this game. Also my spoken English isn't anywhere near as good as my written (which admittedly isn't perfect either). Meh. In hindsight my read on you was mad weak. I wanted to pressure you myslf, but JB took the honors. My hopeless read was much stronger which is why I was hesitant to switch in the first place. Its just that it was also heavily based on the fact that he was afk, and people weren't biting on that. | ||
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Here's what I think is going on this game. Using your last 3 games, I have calculated everybody on the playerlist's chances of rolling mafia this game using basic math. I did not use games that you replaced into, as there is a possibility of it being likelier to replace into one alignment rather than the other, nor did I use ongoing games unless you have already flipped and thus everybody knows your alignment already and could not affect the game. I did use information from the last game, since it totally counts, unless you replaced into the game. Let's start: For each player, I found their last 3 games, and in each of those games I calculated the probability for each alignment and wrote down your alignment in that game. The probably incorrect mathematical theory is within the spoiler below: + Show Spoiler [The Theory] + In this game, every player has a 72% chance to roll town and a 28% chance to roll mafia. To calculate the chances of rolling mafia in this game if you have rolled town 3 times out of 3: P(town% game 1) * P(town% game 2) * P(town% game3) *P(mafia) = P(of a TTTM situation) To calculate the chances of rolling mafia in this game if you have rolled town 2 times out of 3: P(town% game 1) * P(town% game 2) * P(mafia% game1) * P(mafia) = P(of a TTMM situation) To calculate the chances of rolling mafia in this game if you have rolled town 1 times out of 3: P(town%game1) * P(mafia% game1) * P(mafia% game2) * P(mafia) = P(of a TMMM situation) And so on and so forth. If you have rolled mafia at ALL then the chances of any situation goes down significantly. + Show Spoiler + Note: that these are all independent events and in reality your chances of rolling mafia are completely independent of your previous games, therefore this is all bullshit anyways, but its fun! Also, fuck you jonny!!! Based on that theory: + Show Spoiler + Aquanim: T(.75) * T(.75) * T(.8) * M(.28) * 100% = 12.6% of rolling mafia Alakaslam: T(.8) * T(.76) * T(.72) * M(.28) * 100% = 12.2% chance to roll mafia Sidesprang: T(.76) * M(.28) * T(.76) * M(.28) * 100% = 4.52% chance to roll mafia LoneMeow: T(.72) * M(.25) * T(.8) * M(.28) * 100% = 4.03% chance to roll mafia Jaybrundage: T(.72) * T(.76) * M(.25) * M(.28) * 100% = 3.83% chance to roll mafia Hopeless: M(.28) * T(.75)* T(.76) * M(.28) * 100% = 4.46% chance to roll mafia Oatsmaster: T(.72) * T(.76) * M(.23) * M(.28) * 100% = 3.52% chance to roll mafia JonnyLaw: T(.76) * T(.76) * T(.72) * M(.28) * 100% = 11.64% chance to roll mafia Suki: T(.72) * T(.76) * M(.23) * M(.28) * 100% = 3.52% chance to roll mafia Koshi: M(.27) * T(.8) * M(.23) * M(.28) * 100% = 1.39% chance to roll mafia Me: T(.72) * M(.23) * M(.22) * M(.28) * 100% = 1.02% chance to roll mafia The conclusions: The town Koshi and I are mathematically literally and figuratively confirmed town. You cannot get more confirmed town than this except with mod-confirmation, regardless of how incredibly anti-town this whole thing is. Koshi with the 1.39% chance to roll mafia. Me with the 1.02% chance to roll mafia. Fight me on this, I dare you! Questionable players Oats Suki Jaybrundage LoneMeow Hopeless Sidesprang This is roughly in order of most to least town. None of you had a chance to post yet, so you all have had weak appearances. I'm okay with them right now since they clearly don't have a very high chance to roll mafia, and it is also obvious that others are probably way more mafia so they are likely to be town. Mafia Aquanim Alakaslam Jonnylaw I will go into a little more detail here: Actually I can't cause there's nothing to go into detail about With 12.6%, 12.2% and 11.64% chance to roll mafia respectively. These guys are PROBABLY mafia. This game is solved. QED. ##Vote Aquanim + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + Disclaimer: huehueuhehuehuehueuheuheuhuhe this is all so useless because in reality everybody who has rolled less times as mafia also has a much higher chance to roll town and basically all I did was prove that every game was independent from each other huehuehueuheuheuheuhehuehueuhe... like jonny has a 39% chance to roll town town town town whereas I have a a 3% chance to roll town mafia mafia town and this is all for the lulz huehuehueuheuhehueuheuheuh and also i probably should have used some time of conditional probability formulas like bayern's theorem but i was too lazy to re-learn that so i just made stuff up | ||
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On February 07 2014 07:04 JonnyLaw wrote: You can never go wrong lynching Balla. The odds our in our favor. I told you that you hate everything I post. My post literally, figuratively and mathematically shows that the odds are NOT in our favor to lynch me and lynching you, aquanim and Slam = odds in our favor. | ||
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Really Small Mafia (replaced into a doc spot, useless game to look at since the game ended pretty much right after he replaced in) TL Mafia LXIV: A game of intrigue (the non restart) TOWN Back To Basics (not really recent) | ||
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On February 07 2014 07:16 JonnyLaw wrote: Balla the only thing that would have made me happier than jayb being scum last game is if you had also been his mightaswellhavebeenmasoned scum buddies. Then I could have gone 2/2 on lynches and wrapped everything up into a neat and tidy bundle with Koshi as last scum. Except you thought I was really town last game. | ||
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@suki, that implies that you think jaybrundage is town, even though I am clearly 2.5% less likely to be scum than he is. | ||
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On February 07 2014 07:25 JonnyLaw wrote: I appreciate the effort you put into that post man. It's funny but you're trying to force it into being more distracting than Koshi's post last game. What the fuck? I'm not distracting anything. In fact if you take away the 2.5% part the point still stands. If jaybrundage is thinking different than me, that implies that we are different alignment and suki votes me, which implies she thinks jaybrundage is town. So why is that? | ||
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On February 07 2014 07:26 JonnyLaw wrote: Oh, you're mad that you're scum again and hate the science you developed. I see. In fact I am so confirmed town that I am willing to declare myself as King Balla Whenever you refer to me you must now refer to me as "my king" and must protect me at all costs from assassins. | ||
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On February 07 2014 07:26 Koshi wrote: Koshi is indeed town so I am going to beleive Balla his theory. Balla let's get a town circle going. Koshi, since you are also confirmed town, will you be my Queen? | ||
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On February 07 2014 07:36 jaybrundage wrote: It might be a rough game. I tryharded the shit out of last game. And jonny wanted to lynch me cause I was "acting" like town. I guess the first thing would be too not give as much advice this game. 1. Because I said it last game. 2. Because now I can just policy lynch lurkers cause they have been warned :D I want to just say scum hunt more. But its not easy too early day 1. Maybe more pressure less advice for the early day. This game just got a whole lot easier. ##Vote jaybrundage | ||
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##vote jaybrundage | ||
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On February 07 2014 07:40 suki wrote: King Balla, my King, why dost thou voteth Jaybrundage? In due time, my subject, in due time. | ||
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On February 07 2014 07:46 jaybrundage wrote: Why would I comment they aren't real votes. Oh but aren't they? | ||
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On February 07 2014 07:36 jaybrundage wrote: It might be a rough game. I tryharded the shit out of last game. I guess the first thing would be too not give as much advice this game. 1. Because I said it last game. 2. Because now I can just policy lynch lurkers cause they have been warned :D I want to just say scum hunt more. But its not easy too early day 1. Maybe more pressure less advice for the early day. You're making so many excuses for no reason. Why would you tryharding last game have anything to do with this game or how tough it's going to be? In fact, what are you trying to say when you say you "tryharded the shit out of last game"? What, are you implying you're not going to tryhard the shit out of this game, why not? Scumhunting is scumhunting. Sure there's not much to talk about on day1 but that's where you make stuff to talk about and then scumhunt from there. There has been no effort to do that. Instead, all you have done is called my first post "icky", which was 100% totally intended to do just that, get people to start talking and scumhunting from the get go which should be pretty obvious to everybody, but for some reason you decided it was icky and then make excuses for what I can only assume is going to be bad scumhunting on day 1. On February 07 2014 07:32 jaybrundage wrote: That first post. Ugh I'm still feeling icky from it. | ||
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On February 07 2014 07:51 jaybrundage wrote: I feel off. What a non committal post. After you say your vote is real. You make a terrible comment like that. I think what you mean to say. Is that you think I'm scum. BUT your scum so you know that not to be true and your waffling like crazy. Because even when you say the vote is real. Your very next line shows you have no conviction about it. Koshi is scum. I caught one :D In fact, this post is so very scummy. If you are town, your reaction to these "fake votes" would be completely different. You would be confused and curious as to what they find scummy about what you said, or you would just think that it's totally trolly and ignore it. Here you find it is scummy? What cause he thinks you feel off? Your response should have been "what feels off about me then oh wise one koshi" and not "you're scum". | ||
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On February 07 2014 07:59 jaybrundage wrote: You should catch up on the thread. This post is already outdated. No it's not, it is completely irrelevant to what you said. What did you say that changes anything I said within my post? Did you even read my post? | ||
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On February 07 2014 08:02 Koshi wrote: Balla, let's give jayb a break for a sec. What do you think about Jonny? Why is he gone? He wanted to talk, but there is nothing from him atm. He's also scum. Last game he called my early unexplained vote shit, this game he says: On February 07 2014 07:41 JonnyLaw wrote: Votes are like assholes in this game. Give the man a minute. It's day1 lets sit around and chat a while. He also completely dismissed my first post without even giving it a a real thought, similar to what jaybrundage did, and has been spewing irrelevant things like commentary about post-game which is completely off-topic unless he wants to make a point about this game with it. Also the aqua stuff is pretty irrelevant, and actually anti-town. What's the point of talking about Aqua's meta if he hasn't even posted anything yet? Sure I guess it's interesting to see if anybody has played with him, but you can 1. do that research yourself. 2. wait to see if anybody brings any meta arguments and information to the table themselves. Knowing whether someone has played with someone or not doesn't do anything. | ||
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On February 07 2014 08:13 jaybrundage wrote: Pray tell what should people post about your first post. Just compare your reaction to Suki's: On February 07 2014 07:02 suki wrote: I actually prefer to lynch JonnyLaw. Why the hell is a giant post that balla OBVIOUSLY wrote before the roles were revealed, make him scum? ##vote JonnyLaw Here she puts actual thought into what I did, whereas Jonny immediately thinks oh because I posted that i'm scum. On February 07 2014 07:28 suki wrote: Legitimate question. Jay, since you're 0.29% more likely to be scum than me, and since you were the top 2 Day 1 lynch in the previous game, how do you plan to play differently in order to avoid being targeted for lynch this game? Then she jokes about it here, which goes along with the light-hearted tone about the entire thing. Your response is more null though, because I can't tell if you actually thought about it or not (and then decided it was bad), whereas Jonny immediately jumps to "scum" because of it. | ||
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On February 07 2014 08:14 JonnyLaw wrote: There's nothing to discuss in your first post. It's not good. Are you trying to manipulate what I said? Huh? There's four of you tossing around votes. This is not what I said. I didn't say there was something to discuss, I said you didn't give it a real thought. | ||
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On February 07 2014 08:25 JonnyLaw wrote: There is nothing to think about in that post. At all. Ever. It's 100% worthless aside from humor. Still missing the point. That's fine. We can move on. Why do you not see what I'm seeing in regards to Jaybrundage? Can you respond to the two posts I have about him. | ||
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On February 07 2014 08:33 JonnyLaw wrote: Your first post was obviously pre-written. It's not "icky" but it's not alignment indicative. You'd post the same thing as scum or town. The sections you highlighted in his posts make me feel wary. They're scummy sure. Does that make him scum? I actually agree with Jay here. I don't give a shit about votes an hour into the game. 1. That's interesting to me because that's literally what you always jump on as town is people making excuses for their play. But at least you are wary. 2. That's not the point. Think about your reaction if someone just random votes you without explaining anything. You either think it's trolly or you think "wtf". If it's trolly you basically ignore it, which jb started to do. If you think wtf, you become curious and try to understand wtf they are thinking, and SPECIFICALLY if they have actually think they see something or not. After he thinks their real, he basically goes "WTF" and goes HAM on koshi for being non-commital. NOWHERE does he show a curious, townie, scum-hunting mindset but instead just straight up attacks him. He doesn't ask what is that "feels off", he just says that saying that is scummy. I would seriously expect him to think harder about what Koshi is doing. | ||
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On February 07 2014 07:11 sidesprang wrote: No, i've not played with him before. He said in his last game that he never had rolled scum I think. So will be hard to use meta on him I guess. Unless his game greatly differs from his previous ones. Sidesprang where did you go? Stuff started happening 5 minutes after this post and you have no opinions? | ||
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On February 07 2014 08:48 jaybrundage wrote: These are contradictions. I am not attacking him. I even called him my scum friend. I did ask what feels off. Your wrong here. This last bit is a contradiction again. I am thinking real hard about what Koshi is doing. That's why I analyzed it and wrote a case up about it. My conclusion is that he is scum. Why are you chainsaw defending Koshi instead of reading up on my post and seeing if I have any valid thoughts in it. What makes you so convinced that Koshi is town, that you are hard defending him so much? You're not attacking him? Really? You did not ask what feels off, please quote. I'd be happy to be wrong about it, but I just skimmed that section. I'm not talking about your case on Koshi, that's ok I guess, it's pretty silly to use pre-game stuff at all but that's fine since at least it's somewhat relevant. I don't like that the whole thing is built on the fact that he would be "happier" though. I'm not defending koshi at all, where do you get that? I don't like your case on him, that doesn't mean i'm defending him. Chainsaw defense though? I'm the one who brought up real points about this whole situation in the first place. Just because you reacted to him instead of me doesn't make this a chainsaw defense. I think Koshi is town atm though, yes. Same thing as last game, he's thinking like me just like you were thinking like me. He saw what I saw. We shall see if this continues. | ||
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On February 07 2014 08:54 JonnyLaw wrote: That's the most important part of your post. Anyone who calls jay scum must be scum. Easy defense. Jay looks scummy. So does Koshi. Honestly you've done nothing to show otherwise either. I don't understand what you're saying, sorry. The bold says "anyone who calls jay scum must be scum?". I'm not seeing the flow here, could you re-state or something? | ||
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On February 07 2014 08:59 jaybrundage wrote: You claim I'm scummy but your not even reading my posts That's because this isn't at all what I was speaking about, and it happens AFTER the fact. This is the post i'm talking about: On February 07 2014 07:51 jaybrundage wrote: I feel off. What a non committal post. After you say your vote is real. You make a terrible comment like that. I think what you mean to say. Is that you think I'm scum. BUT your scum so you know that not to be true and your waffling like crazy. Because even when you say the vote is real. Your very next line shows you have no conviction about it. Koshi is scum. I caught one :D | ||
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Got it, so you changed your mind and agree with me? ^_^ Also, jay, I don't want to tunnel you any longer but please, if you are going to accuse me of not reading your posts then at least read mine fully. I get the impression that you didn't even read what I wrote about you at the start of this whole mess. On February 07 2014 07:59 jaybrundage wrote: You should catch up on the thread. This post is already outdated. | ||
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On February 07 2014 09:03 jaybrundage wrote: Please can you give me a case on why you have a town read on Koshi. Explain it. If you can explain your thinking then maybe I can see it from your perspective and my read on Koshi can change. I do think both of you are scum. However I do not plan on becoming tunneled on it and exclude all other reasonings (cough cough jonny last game ) Also you are defending Koshi... Hard. I can go back and point it out. However I am not going to waste my time go read your own filter and look at it and see if you can find any posts that can be construed as you defending Koshi. I'm not going to post a "case", it's a feeling. It's not like I read his filter and say wow this guy is town. It's based on how the thread was moving. I can give you examples of what makes me feel good about him though if that's what you want. On February 07 2014 07:33 Koshi wrote: Jonny. Come on. It was a joke post. No need to exaggerate. Heads up for you: When I am town, I post like a fucking madman. You are allowed to stop me if it is too much. Because I think you are special. Instead you are never allowed to call me scum. Deal? Taking responsibility for his actions later on. If he doesn't post like a madman, we lynch him. On February 07 2014 08:24 Koshi wrote: The kid with the lollipop is when I roll scum. It goes like this: I see scum PM, I am very angry --> I pretend to be really happy in the thread. But this game it went like this: I AM FUCKING TOWN HELL FUCKING YEAH --> I don't have to pretend shit and I simply scumhunt. Currently I am looking at Jonny and JayB. Why am I not looking at Balla atm? Because isn't it more likely Balla is scum and I am being blindfolded? Good question but no! Balla posts about current topics, his posts influence how I think and are well thought out and he posts carefree and townylike. I just like everything about him. And I really dislike you 2 atm. JayB is shaking in his boots and Jonny you just left the thread as soon as JayB got attention. ##unvote ##vote: JonnyLaw Let it be known. This is essentially what I was thinking about you two as well, + points for him. Things I don't like: - I don't like how antagonistic he's being towards you. - I don't like how he never explains what "feels off" about you. Koshi, please explain, what felt off? | ||
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If so then you may be my Queen. | ||
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On February 07 2014 09:17 jaybrundage wrote: Bleh I can't analyze your first post Balla gotta go soon. I believe you were defending koshi before he posted the second thing tho but thats just what I remember from the top of my head could be wrong. That's fine you probably just saw it wrong based on how the thread developed that seems like what you did. Understandable since this thread has accrued what... 12 pages in the time we got 2 pages last game? | ||
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On February 07 2014 09:22 jaybrundage wrote: Noooo Im pretty sure I remember it right. I am just lacking for time right now. Let me remind you how this all went down: 1. I vote you without explaining 2. Koshi votes you without explaining seconds later. 3. You say our votes aren't real. 4. I immediately say, "oh but aren't they" (paraphrased from memory) 5. Koshi follows up seconds later with "my vote is real, you feel off" (paraphrased from memory) 6. You go ham on Koshi for saying "you feel off"' 7. Koshi antagonizes you a lot 8. I explain why my vote was real and why I was voting. 9. You say I should catch up with the thread because what I wrote is outdated (even though it wasn't at all) 10. I reply and say why I think the way you did 6 was scummy, and then how wrong you are on 9. and the rest is history. | ||
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On February 07 2014 09:26 suki wrote: I will be honored to be your queen, my King. However, I find Jay's desire to scum hunt forced and contrived. I can't believe that he's seriously saying that you and Koshi are a scum team. I find his self-consciousness (that you pointed out) to be a scum tell on him because, as per my meta-read in Shadowed mafia, that was one of the features which I found in his scum play. I don't want to come to any hard conclusions on him yet because his tunnel on Koshi is stupid both as town and scum, and 'tryhard town' does seem like something he would do, however my vote on him is serious. Then you my queen you shall be. I like your point that the tunnel on Koshi is stupid as both town and scum. I don't see this huge tunnel on us from a scum player. This is a very very good point indeed. | ||
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On February 07 2014 10:22 Hopeless1der wrote: I'm a little miffed that people are so hung up about talking about the old game. It is better than policy, so there's that... Like who? Is there any particular instance you feel is scummy or are you just miffed? | ||
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On February 07 2014 10:32 Hopeless1der wrote: This is the kind of thing Im talking about Balla. Then there's you harping on how your confirmed town when you know thats false. I know your joking, it doesnt make you scum etc etc. That's why I threatened you with assassination. Well saying i'm confirmed town doesn't really have anything to do with last game, but moving on since I know it's annoying ^_^. I know the kind of thing you are talking about, I can give you plenty of instances of it, but I want you to take a stance. Do you see any of those kind of references that are scummy? If not, why did you bring it up in the first place? | ||
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On February 07 2014 10:40 Hopeless1der wrote: They aren't scummy yet. But its similar to how people who drone on incessantly about policy or setup speculation are more likely to be scum. Continuing to talk about the previous game without drawing conclusions about what it means in this game is scummy. Agree/Disagree? i.e. I brought it up because I saw it becoming a circlejerk Agreed. One of the things I brought up against Jonny. | ||
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There's really nothing new. Everybody knows he's made some scummy decisions. He's been pressured to no end, no reason to keep pushing him now because we know almost everything about him. Let him play the game, watch him to see if he redeems himself, but there's no reason to keep pushing him unless there is NEW information. Let him play unpressed, see what happens. | ||
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On February 07 2014 11:54 jaybrundage wrote: Balla talk to me why do you think my push on Koshi is scummy. I think while it isn't the most amazing case. It is after all an early day 1 case. And I think alot of things I said are completely true. If you are referring to the big "case", I never said that was scummy. I said that it was ok, but I don't really like the fact that it's built off of koshi not being happy. It's new information, which is good, but the information isn't that great, you know? I don't think that case is scummy at all. What I think was possibly scummy was your initial reaction to koshi's "fake vote". I explained multiple times so I don't really want to type it all out again, but it was based on the fact that your initial reaction was more scum like than town like in the fact that you weren't really trying to figure out what koshi was doing, and were just attacking him. You weren't curious, as I expect a townie who is having a WTF moment would be having. After your initial reaction, you calmed down and started displaying more townie traits, but still, the initial reaction is what my read on you is based off of. Everything after that is "meh" to me. Does that not make sense? | ||
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On February 07 2014 11:53 Oatsmaster wrote: What are you doing to push someone? Nothing. This is a really silly post Oats, like you have barely read the thread. I've done plenty. In fact your reads are mostly just sheeps off of what I created in the thread. I have something for you: On February 07 2014 11:20 Oatsmaster wrote: Aqua is being very very guiding without actually hunting scum. Guiding as in more similar last game's jaybrundage, or he's being more similar to LoneMeow? To me Aquanim is being very similar to LoneMeow atm, but there's no real loaded questions like he had and he seems to be making conclusions about stuff in the thread. His questions seemed more to try to generate discussions, and he seems very eager to do so, but he's not really accomplishing it in my opinion. Can you elaborate on aqua's "guidiness" and how he's not trying to hunt scum? | ||
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On February 07 2014 12:16 jaybrundage wrote: Hmm So rereading it. I responded to your vote. Cause it was like a foolishness cameo. I had voted you semi-jokingly before. So I didn't take it seriously. I didn't respond to Koshi's vote because it just seemed like a throwaway/joke vote. Then I posted my thing about him not being excited enough in his first post. Then you posted your thing about me not commentating on them. But I actually had commentated on one of them. Which was yours. But I didn't feel a reason to comment on them indepth because they didn't seem like real votes in the first place from what I thought. Does that make sense? First off you didn't reply to everything I said in there haha, does that make sense what I said? Like I don't want you to misunderstand where I think you are scummy and where you're not. Ah but that wasn't me who said you didn't comment on them, that was Koshi. Interesting. So actually, I think your initial reaction to my vote was super town. I wasn't expecting it to go any further than that after that response until you blew up at Koshi which set off red flags everywhere for me. Turns out, Koshi here is the catalyst for everything. And his antagonizing behavior led to all this. Koshi: i know you're asleep but I want you to answer this so i'm asking it again, what was it that "felt off" about the post we voted jaybrundage for? | ||
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On February 07 2014 12:22 jaybrundage wrote: Yea I didn't like her play so much as I mentioned in my response to her earlier. I hesitated on calling her scum tho lol. I had already been pretty ambitious with calling people scum this game. I found it odd that she ignored my correction of her post where she is trolling me. But is completely wrong on it because she mixed up which post came first. I would of expected an opps or oh my thing. But she didn't even comment on it. That just seemed odd to me. As suki is usually first to make amends when she makes a mistake. I'd just like to note that I think suki's point about jayb's case on Koshi being early or whatever is pretty bad. There's no reason to think that jaybrundage posting a case on koshi because it's early is scummy. That's just wrong. It's coming from a position where you KNOW jaybrundage is scum, which nobody knows except his possible scum buddies, thus he is OBVIOUSLY trying to fit in as town by posting a case early. On February 07 2014 12:22 Oatsmaster wrote: The part where he doesnt ask anyone questions that are hard to answer, but mainly asking them to clarify and phrase their points better. The point I was making is that you asked us to stop harping abotu JayB but you arent doing anything away from that. Which is totally true. Ah. That makes very much sense, I thought you were accusing me for doing nothing the entire game. Eh, I don't mind that then but I still kinda disagree considering I just sat down at my computer again and see you guys pushing jayb ^_^. All i'm doing now is having a conversation with him to clear things up. On Aqua: That's good. I do think he's trying to come up with conclusions about people though which is good. And since you brought it up, he has brought new information to the thread with the suki stuff. So we'll see. | ||
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On February 07 2014 12:30 Aquanim wrote: It's a kind of half-meta case, in that her play so far does not seem to be directed towards scumhunting, and I can verify that she is capable and willing to direct her play towards scumhunting by checking a previous town game. The argument holds without any need to refer to her scumgames, though I would take a look at it if I were to start seriously pushing for her lynch. For now I want to discuss her play so far. Putting aside your opinion of my methods, what's your read on suki so far? Just from memory, she scum hunts as scum and her scumgame resembles her towngame. Neither of which resemble this game at all. I've never seen her this trolly and happy, but that just be because of the way the game opened, how I opened etc. We know each other somewhat out of mafia, so it totally fits with her personality, but I can't compare this game to any of her previous games. Essentially, her scumgame doesn't resemble this at all, so your meta argument I don't believe holds true. We'll see how she follows up. | ||
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On February 07 2014 12:31 jaybrundage wrote: What didn't I reply on? Yea misread again it was Koshi. I never really responded to Koshi's vote vote tho. Can you quote the post your talking about? Also I am sorry my clone I think i misread you D: The post you were quoting where I replied to you. It was about how you had the impression that I was calling your push on Koshi scummy. I just want to know if we're clear now and on the same page. I don't know what you're talking about in regards to responding to koshi's vote vote though haha. I don't care that you didn't reply to his vote post where he called you awkward or whatever. There was no reason to. | ||
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On February 07 2014 12:42 jaybrundage wrote: Ok this is what I don't know what your talking about. Ok. Here is what I said in regards to your reaction, I even quoted the post I was talking about (i think i'm getting pretty good at quoting heuheu). I said more about it in multiple other posts, but this is what I said at first. This is ONLY in response to the initial reaction to koshi, which is quoted within. On February 07 2014 08:01 Balla24 wrote: In fact, this post is so very scummy. If you are town, your reaction to these "fake votes" would be completely different. You would be confused and curious as to what they find scummy about what you said, or you would just think that it's totally trolly and ignore it. Here you find it is scummy? What cause he thinks you feel off? Your response should have been "what feels off about me then oh wise one koshi" and not "you're scum". The explanation for why I voted for you in the first place is here, they are relatively separate (not relevant to your reaction to koshi): + Show Spoiler + On February 07 2014 07:58 Balla24 wrote: You're making so many excuses for no reason. Why would you tryharding last game have anything to do with this game or how tough it's going to be? In fact, what are you trying to say when you say you "tryharded the shit out of last game"? What, are you implying you're not going to tryhard the shit out of this game, why not? Scumhunting is scumhunting. Sure there's not much to talk about on day1 but that's where you make stuff to talk about and then scumhunt from there. There has been no effort to do that. Instead, all you have done is called my first post "icky", which was 100% totally intended to do just that, get people to start talking and scumhunting from the get go which should be pretty obvious to everybody, but for some reason you decided it was icky and then make excuses for what I can only assume is going to be bad scumhunting on day 1. | ||
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On February 07 2014 12:57 Oatsmaster wrote: So why did you ask the thread to stop? Because you guys WERE pressuring him. The guy doesn't even have a clear head yet. I'm not pressuring, do you see any questions? All i'm doing is answering his questions about what I was doing and making sure he's clear on what i'm saying. It's a one way road basically. | ||
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I'm very weary on him. On February 07 2014 07:25 JonnyLaw wrote: I appreciate the effort you put into that post man. It's funny but you're trying to force it into being more distracting than Koshi's post last game. What the fuck? The post he quotes here is completely irrelevant to my probability mafia post. This was literally the first time I was not being trolly in this game. I know the things I was referring to were trolly and joky, but I wanted to start the game at that point, and they were interesting enough initial thoughts to question their motives behind it. Why does he think i'm forcing anything and distracting anything. That was literally the start of the first discussion of the game yet he doesn't even really read it. He even moves into quoting one of my more trolly posts afterwards ("I declare myself king") and calls it funny, even though it was way more distracting than anything else I did. Moving on: On February 07 2014 07:40 JonnyLaw wrote: Overall you had a good game. You had one comment early that tripped my scum radar. I think along the lines of "in newer games people need motivation to post." Then you proceeded to try and take over the town. I felt like you were scum trying to take over the town. Bah, you should have been scum. There were plenty moments where jonny talks about something irrelevant and not helpful to the game with the facade that it is "getting the game started" and "not talking about policy". This post here could have literally happened in post-game and pre-game, I wouldn't be able to tell the difference. There is absolutely NO relevance to jay's alignment in this game. In fact, all it does is help jay if he's scum. There's more moments like this, specifically the Aqua stuff. On February 07 2014 08:33 JonnyLaw wrote: Your first post was obviously pre-written. It's not "icky" but it's not alignment indicative. You'd post the same thing as scum or town. The sections you highlighted in his posts make me feel wary. They're scummy sure. Does that make him scum? I actually agree with Jay here. I don't give a shit about votes an hour into the game. Here he says that he finds Jay's excuse-making and self-doubt "weary" but doesn't think it makes him scum (or at least that's what I gather from him asking "does that make him scum?" after literally saying "it's scummy sure", which is really weird in itself). This is in direct contrast to what I know of town jonny. The guy LOVES to pick at this stuff. + Show Spoiler [Quotes from jonny town games] + On January 20 2014 11:40 JonnyLaw wrote: Ve's full of shit. He was this active last game. Making excuses for his posting now. ##vote visceral eyes On January 06 2014 15:21 JonnyLaw wrote: You're not saying anything with authority. You're hesitant and making excuses throughout that post. What are your opinions so far? I don't care how other people feel about you or if it's your first game. That doesn't matter. On January 06 2014 15:30 JonnyLaw wrote: I'll be on tomorrow at a more reasonable time. At this point we have three players who've posted nothing. Fine, we have 30+ hours till day ends. I hate this post and generally everything in Asuna's filter. Excuses, bandwagoning and self doubt in one line. I'm down to lynch Asuna or OWB at this point. Dragoon and Chyz read more as if they're trying but misguided. + Show Spoiler [PYP: LoL, where Jonny is Mafia] + On December 03 2013 07:24 JonnyLaw wrote: Rean - Votes yorick, claims vt and roleplays liftlift. Could be scum lurking. Austin talks about champ abilities and not wanting town to role claim. I'm not certain role claiming is the best policy either. Maybe I'm missing something but these two are lurking harder than gtrs. Mocsta is making a lot of excuses. Busy, in mylo etc... I generally agree with Roffles and Mocsta about gtrs. + Show Spoiler + On December 02 2013 15:08 Roffles wrote: I think gtrsrs just doesn't give a fuck anymore because he didn't get his champ of choice and is stuck as a vanilla townie. To me it all makes sense cause I know he probably just picked a champ he likes playing in the actual game (Khazix) and seemed cool in terms of skills here (he announced he was doing this too), but wasn't able to grab him and now just starts screwing around cause he's got nothing better to do. MZ wants gtrs lynched and then spends the rest of his posts defending himself. If this is a popular sentiment and he was a proponent of it early why is he getting so much flak? Are mocsta and MZ arguing for some personal reasons? Why did you want me to read these filters. The first two say nothing and the second two are just arguing. Rayn thinks MZ's contradicting himself but the first couple days I thought Rayn posted okay for the most part. I'm more confused about them at this point than anything. tldr Rean and Austin are useless right now because they're doing nothing. Mocsta's making excuses without them being asked. Could be scummy. MZ's spending all his time on defense. This is the opposite of how soniv approached aggression directed his way. That's why I liked soniv for town earlier. On February 07 2014 09:13 JonnyLaw wrote: Koshi went to sleep. Are you reading this thread Balla? Then this. This is just blatantly not reading the thread. I was asked by jaybrundage to make a "town case" on koshi, so I did so. I even quoted what I was responding to. Yet he tells me I'M not reading the thread. This ticks me off ^_^. | ||
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On February 07 2014 13:50 jaybrundage wrote: Does what I said make sense to you from a town perspective now? Ehh.. not so much still. I think the point still stands. I still would lump the initial vote reaction with the "my vote is real" reaction. But for now: ##unvote | ||
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On February 07 2014 13:57 Aquanim wrote: @Balla's thoughts on JonnyLaw: Your first point I'm not sold on, since the post of yours which he quoted did contain some reference to the probability stuff: "...I am clearly 2.5% less likely to be scum than he is". Sure, there may have been actual content in your post too, but calling out your continuing usage of your mathematical mumbo-jumbo isn't too bad from him. I don't see how finding one of your later trolly posts to be funny is too inconsistent with that, either. Jonny indeed has a lot of irrelevant posts, that's true. I'm not entirely sure what you're getting at regarding Jonny "picking" at things, could you elaborate on this some more? As for him not reading the thread, people make mistakes sometimes. Conclusion: some interesting points raised but nothing which draws me much away from null on jonny. also weary is not the same thing as wary The thing is completely ignoring it just because it has a joke about it is silly. Saying it's distracting is also silly, considering it was again, the first scum-hunty post of the game. I find it very inconsistent, but we will agree to disagree here haha. Jonny LOVES LOVES LOVES to pick at people making excuses for their play. Did you look at the quotes in the spoilers. Those are from his 2 recent town games. He picks at VE for "making excuses already" and goes as far as to vote for it super super super early. In the other game, he picks at 2 different people for making excuses like that. Goes so far as to say he would kill one of them for it. In his scumgame, he says Mocsta (his scummate) is making excuses, but only says it "could be scummy". Pretty much the same thing he did here in regards to jay "it's scummy but does that make him scum?". This is pretty big to me. | ||
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The second, it's not an association case. I'm not saying jaybrundage + jonnylaw are scum. I'm saying jonnylaw is scum on his own. | ||
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On February 07 2014 14:34 Oatsmaster wrote: How is this scummy in the slightest? The first quote is serious until the end, dunno what exactly makes you confused. The second quote is also questionably humorous but johnny did just post pretty much exactly what jay posted. My definition of contrived is faked. None of the quotes look faked. They look awkward when you say them sure, but they arent fake. Vote for suki2014 Agreed. I remember plenty of times where town jay from last game said things like the second quote too. I'm pretty surprised you don't remember these: + Show Spoiler + On February 04 2014 16:28 jaybrundage wrote: Oats im going to bed its your shift to keep the conversation flowing. MAKE ME PROUD! On February 05 2014 02:35 jaybrundage wrote: SUKI GONNA RUSTLE SOME JIMMIES I like your case seems well thought out and pretty straight forward logic. The first big case of the thread :D On February 05 2014 10:51 jaybrundage wrote: Fine Jonny ill start playing the game gosh... On February 05 2014 11:53 jaybrundage wrote: WATCH IT BUDDY I DID ELABORATE | ||
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On February 07 2014 14:55 suki wrote: Regardless I think Jay's under too much pressure and he needs space to contribute so we can evaluate him when he's not inside a pressure cooker. hehe | ||
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On February 07 2014 15:11 Oatsmaster wrote: what. I think you dont understand the meaning of 'objectively' scummy. You havent explained anything about his tryhardness making him scum or why his case was bad, or why his stuff is forced. Like half this shit is subjective. ##VOTE SUKI WAGON OF JUSTICE All aboard the justice train!!!! Chugga chugga Chugga chugga Chugga chugga Chugga chugga Chugga chugga Chugga chugga CHOOOOOO CHOOOOO ##vote suki + Show Spoiler + Getting in the sleeper car and going to sleep. Gotta see where this train goes! | ||
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On February 07 2014 15:18 suki wrote: My King, for what reason would you turn against your own Queen? The knot has not yet been tied. It takes not just one eve to plan such a sacred event as matrimony. The evidence you have brought forth has led me and my people (who all are regarded as relatively trustworthy advisers) to believe that you are acting in a manner that is not beneficial to this fine and beautiful kingdom. We will discuss this on the morrow, as I shall retreat to the confines and safety of my chambers ALONE. In the meantime, if you feel so inclined, could you share your thoughts on our friendly jester Jonnylaw. Is he one of our more loyal fools? | ||
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On February 07 2014 15:18 suki wrote: My King, for what reason would you turn against your own Queen? It appears the train has stopped and the conductor stopped driving. It brought me absolutely nowhere. Thanks Wagon Conductor Oatsmaster. 3 reasons here: 1. The train choo choo opportunity was wayyyyy to good to pass up. 2. I didn't really like ANY of the content you were bringing up to that point. Since then, it's been a teeny itsy bit better. Let's go into detail. At the point of the following quote, we already know your that you think jay is scum, your vote is on him, you hated his case on koshi, too early etc etc, you already know how I felt about that at the time so no need to talk about it: On February 07 2014 09:26 suki wrote: I will be honored to be your queen, my King. However, I find Jay's desire to scum hunt forced and contrived. I can't believe that he's seriously saying that you and Koshi are a scum team. I find his self-consciousness (that you pointed out) to be a scum tell on him because, as per my meta-read in Shadowed mafia, that was one of the features which I found in his scum play. I don't want to come to any hard conclusions on him yet because his tunnel on Koshi is stupid both as town and scum, and 'tryhard town' does seem like something he would do, however my vote on him is serious. Here you say you find his "self-consciousness to be a scum tell because of your meta read". Why dost thou not share quotes from his scum play where you have noticed this? It's quite important to proving your point don't you think? You follow by saying you don't want to come to any hard conclusions but your vote is serious. I'm of the opinion that if your vote is serious then you HAVE come to a hard conclusion. That's a matter of semantics, I just think it's weird to say it like that and I would say it differently. I do really like that point though as I said earlier. Here is your case on sidesprang: + Show Spoiler + On February 07 2014 14:50 suki wrote: I've had a skim through most of the people in this thread and I want to bring people's attention to one person in particular: Sidesprang Sidesprang is not a high-quantity player. This is true throughout all his games. I noticed something when I was reading his posts while catching up, and this notion became stronger when I reread his filter. With this notion in mind, I then looked up his game history. I found 3 town games and 1 mafia game. Meta analysis in spoiler: + Show Spoiler + In all his games he has a very short filter. In his town games, Sidesprang uses his posts the ask difficult questions and hunt scum. He does this in all three games (Although TL Mafia XX is not a good example I feel as he mostly spends his time apologizing for not being there, but he does post his opinions and stays away from policy talk etc). http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=436388&user=sidesprang http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=434723&user=sidesprang http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=115243&user=sidesprang In the one scum game I found (If there are more let me know), sidesprang does not scum hunt but rather wastes a lot of time talking about policy, discussing setup, etc. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=111913&user=sidesprang Now my point with this case is not to say that sidesprang is totes scum, but rather to point out some observations that I've made that make it seem that he is in a different mindset this game, and that this mindset makes him more likely scum. sidesprang's attitude this game feels different from his town games. He asks 'Are you basing your scum read on Suki just off meta atm?' then spends two large posts talking about how my meta is different and basically soft-defending me. I'm used to sidesprang asking tough questions, questions whose answers have meaning. It's kind of subtle but I feel like if sidesprang really cared about Aquanim's answer he would have waited for Aqua's reply. The other thing I noticed is that when he talked about Jay, he talked directly to Jay 'Regarding your Koshi case.. you better get more meat on it ... I think it's too early to call you scum...' In all of his town games he has always referred to other players as 'this guy' and spoke about them in the third person. Not once did he ever directly write an analysis against someone as if he was talking to them. A weak point but just something that caught my eye. - This is admittedly a lot of words to describe a few subtle things. However there was just something different about sidesprang this game, and I wanted to explore it. Now that I have I want to share this information and just keep a closer eye on him. The fact that so much has happened in the thread and sidesprang has only called Jay scummy is something that is different than his previous town games. The fact that he spends a lot of time discussing my meta feels like he's playing this game with a different mindset, one that's not so focused on scum hunting and more focused on looking like he's contributing. In fact, in the previous three town games that I skimmed I didn't see one instance of him defending a player. All his efforts were on scum hunting. So. Conclusion: Sidesprang is scummy because his approach to this game is different, which can be seen as scummy for the reasons expressed above. We should keep a close eye on him and see how he chooses to continue the game. Again, the first thing that stands out to me is that there are no quotes at all in here. In a meta case like this it's impossible to see your point without quotes. The bolded are things that I believe to be completely false. Either because I don't see it in this game, you have your facts wrong or I don't see it in his previous games. I don't believe his discussion of your meta was defending you at all. Rather, I see it more as bringing new relevant information to the thread. He has that knowledge because he's played with you, he believes that meta argument on you to be false. I thought the same thing. Plus, I find it really hard to believe that he has not defended anybody in any of his town games, but looking through I can see what you're saying. However, if I were him that's 100% something I would want to change. Developing and defending your town reads is an important facet to a town player. On February 08 2014 01:32 suki wrote: What do people think about lynching slam or LoneMeow for pulling the same 24 hour disappearance trick that Hopeless did in the previous game? I know that slam can check the game from his phone and has no qualms about posting from his phone. This behaviour is not typical of either of them. I am absolutely 100% down to lynch slam. Not LoneMeow, because he has already displayed huge tendencies to do this in the last game. I'm very surprised that slam has not posted a single thing and is not doing any shenanigans at all, it's quite unlike him. I do believe that it is waaaaaaaay harder to enter a crazy thread like this as scum compared to as town, so we shall see what they both do when they enter the thread. | ||
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On February 08 2014 02:29 jaybrundage wrote: @Balla Slam kind of slipped my mind but your right about him not posting is weird. But I wouldn't say lonemeow wasn't posting yesterday. He seemed to have some posts in the thread at least. Yep and that's totally understandable. My point is is that I wouldn't lynch lonemeow because he has displayed super lurker tendencies already. I'd lynch slam regardless of his return to the thread unless it's amazing because I think it is very against his meta. Though it's not as strong as hopeless last game because I don't have a scum game where he does it. | ||
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On February 08 2014 01:29 Hopeless1der wrote: At a skim, he goes from JayB->JonnyLaw->me->Suki->sidesprang. Can't sit still, pursuing everything he sees for the most part. He completely glances over JonnyLaw and me, but volunteered reads/reasons for the other 3. I think he's town. This is a really easily given townread here hopeless. Why does him jumping around make him more likely to be town then scum? I think I know what you're getting at but i'd like to see if it matches. | ||
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On February 08 2014 03:04 Hopeless1der wrote: if its so easy to give then why do you know what I'm getting at balla? Either I'm full of shit or you think I can be trusted. Exactly this. Either you are full of shit or you have good reasoning behind it and it makes you more townie. This response makes me think you are full of shit and it was just a random town read though, because it's super easy to explain what I think you are getting at. | ||
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On February 08 2014 03:12 Hopeless1der wrote: because he's not randomly jumping around, there is a trigger, there is a process involved in moving from one person to another to pressure them and he follows through long enough to get a response without getting stuck in a tunnel. He doesn't worry about needing to drop his read, and yeah he's kind of called a lot of people scum so there are lots of options but its bring information to town and presenting new viewpoints without bringing in clutter or being a distraction. Interesting. Not what I was thinking you were thinking ^_^. I was getting at the fact that Oats was doing this last game, albeit here it is a LOT more faster paced and rapid fire, which we can attribute to the game being much faster paced. IIRC, he jumped from Koshi -> you -> cake. So there are similarities already to his town game. | ||
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On February 08 2014 03:29 suki wrote: Jay's play in previous games: + Show Spoiler + Scum in Roulette Mini Mafia On June 04 2013 09:13 jaybrundage wrote: So im down with the whole claim role thing. But if the scum can also get the roles it doesnt really lead us to any lynches. But i guess the point of it would be transparency and all that jazz. I hate playing with people i never played with before I cant rely on previous experiences Also if anyone has not played with me I would suggest reading a previous game or two I play rather..... unorthodox (I occasionally be hardcore lynchbait D:) Kinda all over the place but I always feel like day 1 is just typing shit until someone says something questionable. Then the Rage-arguments take place :D self-consciousness. On June 05 2013 05:55 jaybrundage wrote: Maybe you missed the post where i said to go look at previous games. I said that im often lynch bait because its true. As town i often get mislynched. I prefer for people to know this and take at look at my play rather then straight up die as town for my play. Me poking someone with a stick is not pressure. The fact that you have that in your case shows how weak it is. Besides the fact that your just piggy backing of someone elses post. The fact that you think a joke post is the scummiest post as of yet just shows your lack of a real case. #Vote S0lstice self-consciousness. On June 05 2013 10:59 jaybrundage wrote: Well how would you start day 1. I stuggle day one because there is no content to go off of. And the whole purpose is to create content. excuses. Scum in British Empire Mini Mafia II On March 05 2013 19:31 jaybrundage wrote: Meh, don't like that we already have an outed blue already. But whatever, no reason crying over spilled claims. Not sure what I think about the early votes. Its prolly people fooling around OR SCUM TRYING TO GET AN EASY LYNCH o.o Buuuuut prolly za jokes. Also scum Yamato did this last game. And he got away with it D: YOU KNOW THIS AND STILL VOTE ME QQ joking attitude with mislynch comment. On March 06 2013 11:01 jaybrundage wrote: I saw this coming. People would comment on how i wanted to lynch Dandel but now my votes on thrawn. I wanted to vote dandel because of his complete lack of content in his posts. He (finally) started putting in at least some effort with going for Vivax. Which is a plus. He isn't a townie read my any means. But I completly forgot about thrawn. When you mentioned him I remembered Lamp and his meta case on Thrawn as scum super lurking. That is exactly the case here. Once thrawn found out his role pm he legit stopped posting. He lurked super hard and attributed it to life reasons. Ill be damned if thrawn doesnt come back and give the same excuse. Also if you recall Hapa I was going after DP and then you had a read on him so i backed down eventually I didn't want to do a 180 then because i was worried about how it would look. But if you have a town read on Vivax I respect that and wouldn't want to go against your reads regardless. On March 06 2013 11:25 jaybrundage wrote: I wasn't confident in my reads. I wanted to act like i was to try to put more pressure on them (dandel, vivax) Never have been big on questioning my scum reads tbh. Thats more your forte. My reckoning is if someone is scum they wont give any satisfactory answers anyway. But ill try it out. As for going with the flow. Your right. I prefer to go with people's reads I have a town read on. I have done this to death palmar and even you at points in games. I hate day 1 for a reason. There is no concrete information to go on. self-consciousness. Town in Nomination Mafia On February 08 2013 13:52 jaybrundage wrote: In regards to the bold isnt that what everyone does? In all seriousness there isn't much to say about JX. JX was lurking hard and didn't contribute anything till some pressure was on him and even then he didn't produce much. I was having second thoughts about him per palmars post but no one wanted to lynch prplhz. I dont care if i bring your comments on Oats back to the limelight. If I think something you did was questionable I will call it out. You stated something I didn't agree with so I said as much. And are you fucking kidding me with this consolidation bit. Ofc we have to consolidate as town. If we don't it gives mafia more leeway to swing the vote. Also you your self were asking people to consolidate on JX so how is what you say even make sense. Also why do you ask if im a bad townie. Why not just ask if people think I'm scum? Notice how he doesn't really defend himself, he just shoots back a question. On February 08 2013 14:35 jaybrundage wrote: I fail to see anything in your response that indicates im scum. The mislynch occurred cause JX was lurking hard till pressure was applied to him. And he didn't respond in a townie way. I once heard a good town player say. That for the day one lynch the only thing you need to do as town is to make sure you aren't the jackass that gets lynched. You usually have to play badly for it to happen. Also yes I prefered JX to die over Palmar wasn't that clear. Your issue with consolidation isn't a real issue. It was the end of the day and I asked people to consolidate. Again, he doesn't excuse his play he re-iterates his reasoning. On February 08 2013 23:46 jaybrundage wrote: To give you some quick context. I am the best mislynch na. I used to get lynched about 90 percent of my games, though I have improved a bit cause people were getting used to my meta aka being scummy as fuck as town. I usually lurk hard as scum and get spammy as town. But this game I don't wanna get overly spammy as it makes me look scummy lol. Questions? He is best mislynch NA. But it's not in the joking manner as before. His tone is more serious. Town in Normal Mini Mafia IV On January 30 2013 09:16 jaybrundage wrote: This is your pressure vote are you fucking srs? Or do you actually think im scum Questions when he's pressure voted rather than defensive or instant counter attack. On January 30 2013 10:24 jaybrundage wrote: What the hell are you talking about. God forbid I have more then one scum read. Sharrant and JX are both scummy. Yes JX voted thrawn early but it doesn't make all his scummy actions irrelevant. Also Iamp also had JX as a scummy read. I have Lamp as a town read and i give his opinion some weight in my decisions. That is primarily why I started rereading filters and such to see if i could see what he said about Sharrant and JX. Note the confident attitude. Town (Fake doctor? XD) in our previous Shadowed Mini Mafia On February 04 2014 12:24 jaybrundage wrote: Oh I answered all those questions in my Google spreadsheet already. I ll post what I got on you guys so far. Its not all up to date on the recent things that happened. 1. Balla24 Town I like him so far very aggressive and making discussion and seems like a real player in this game 2. Sidesprang Bleh One post so far I knew he would be a candidate for a policy lynch and hes confirming that. 3. Alakaslam Posted 2 things with no content so far 4. cakemanofdoom no content There is quite a bit of things in the game atm and he chooses to comment on suki saying thats nice. Pretty lackluster choice 5. LoneMeow slightly scummy His first post sucked I don't like it at all and might be down to vote him just based on that. He followed up with basic policy stuff. I dont like him so far 6. Jaybrundage The towniest town that ever towned 7. Hopeless1der Meh we argued a bit over nothing hasn't posted any content tho so much is going on in the thread where did he go? 8. Oatsmaster Hasn't posted yet. I think at the start of the game is pretty late for him tho 9. JonnyLaw Pretty waffly at the start. He is posting but he doesn't seem to have firm convictions. He didn't liike Balla early but he has played with baller 3-2 times with him being scum so his suspicion is warrented. He hasn't produced much content tho he just seems like going with the flow 10. Suki scummy I don't like suki so far she just seems like she has no real motivation behind her posting. Her poke at jonnys waffleing was ok but then when balla inquired about it she said she never said she implied hes scum or anything LIke wtf? Why poke at someone but have no real reason behind it. It would seem that she didn't understand him but then she didn't say that she got very defensive. Said she didn't see anything with LM posting slight defending I dont like her atm 11. Koshi Posted some generic lets post alot then disappeared No waffling here, no excuses on 'I can't get reads easy in D1' On February 05 2014 02:15 jaybrundage wrote: I understood them in the sense that you think im scummy and don't like some of my posts. However why you thought they were scummy is a mystery to me. I would love to hear your thinking. I still adhere to the fact that if you can't see someone's username and see who is posting what. That your reads are going to be terrible. I hope you can read the game knowing who is posting what. Confidence. No heavy defense, no excuses. On February 05 2014 12:13 jaybrundage wrote: I have no need to defend oats. Oats can do that himself. I liked the case in general. Why should I nitpick when I have no need too. Can I not agree with a case? I liked the case. Its that simple. I agree with the case. I dont see how you don't get it. Yes I changed my read on suki. I'm trying to figure out the game. She made a good case so more likely to be town. More confidence. Jay's play this game: + Show Spoiler + On February 07 2014 07:36 jaybrundage wrote: It might be a rough game. I tryharded the shit out of last game. And jonny wanted to lynch me cause I was "acting" like town. I guess the first thing would be too not give as much advice this game. 1. Because I said it last game. 2. Because now I can just policy lynch lurkers cause they have been warned :D I want to just say scum hunt more. But its not easy too early day 1. Maybe more pressure less advice for the early day. excuses. On February 07 2014 07:51 jaybrundage wrote: I feel off. What a non committal post. After you say your vote is real. You make a terrible comment like that. I think what you mean to say. Is that you think I'm scum. BUT your scum so you know that not to be true and your waffling like crazy. Because even when you say the vote is real. Your very next line shows you have no conviction about it. Koshi is scum. I caught one :D Immediate counter attack. Something tells me town Jay would be more likely to say "Can you explain why I feel off?" and prod with questions. In other words, his townie confidence is missing. On February 07 2014 08:55 jaybrundage wrote: Suki. Being aggressive does not =! equal scum. I am scum hunting. Why are you voting me. Instead of reading up on my case and seeing if it has merit. You asked me how I was going to change my approach this game. I said it was going to try to do more pressuring and scum hunting. I am doing that. Should I not want to lynch scum this game. Your question doesn't make sense. It is not that they are in the first four people in the game that I have targeted them. I have targeted balla and Koshi because I find them the most likely to be scum. I think Jonny on the other hand is hella townie atm. Self consciousness. Defensive, trying to provide reasons for the way he is playing. On February 07 2014 11:44 jaybrundage wrote: I can't win with this town. If I give advice and try to make well thought out posts. Then I'm giving advice and I'm not scum hunting enough. If I actively try to scum hunt and push things I think are scummy. Then I'm scummy for unknown reasons. Pretty frustrating. This is new. I don't think I've seen frustration in his previous games so I don't have a meta read on what this means. The thing that comes to mind is if he was confident townie he probably wouldn't care that people are calling him scummy and would question them right back in their faces. Joking tone that's present in his scum games when he mentions he's #1 mislynch. On February 07 2014 11:54 jaybrundage wrote: Balla talk to me why do you think my push on Koshi is scummy. I think while it isn't the most amazing case. It is after all an early day 1 case. And I think alot of things I said are completely true. Self-conscious. This sort of thing doesn't show up in his town games. + Show Spoiler + just look at this quote from the previous game: On February 05 2014 11:49 jaybrundage wrote: Yes I thought suki was scummy before. Her thing about not calling Jonny scum but interesting or what ever word she used did bother me. She just seemed to have no point to your posts. However with her case on Oats it showed that she wasn't just trying to appear to be posting. She actually was analyzing the game and looking for scum. So my read turned on her. Is it possible she's scum that noticed she was getting heat and decided to post a case? Sure possible. But I think the most likely possibility at this point is town. I don't remember Oats too well in my previous games. He was never someone I really suspected. He can be hard to draw a bead on sometimes. Not a huge poster mostly short clip comments. I even had to go back and look briefly at the LoL PYP game. I think the case made good points I hadn't noticed before. Oats was not on my lynch list before Suki posted her case. And she made a good enough case for me to consider lynching him. Also I felt the reason to make my own case because I want to contribute to the town. I didn't plan to just sheep Suki's read and just say yea I like all this Ill join. Because I wanted to post my own analysis I got's me an ego you know. Also by posting other scummy people we can choose as a town who we want to go for based on the information we have. Notice how his reasons for finding me scummy were weak, however he doesn't say 'Oh yeah my reasons for thinking suki was scummy weren't that great.' he simply states what he thought. Ie. Confidence. On February 07 2014 13:50 jaybrundage wrote: Does what I said make sense to you from a town perspective now? Why does he care that other people think he's town? Again, self-conscious, lack of confidence. On February 08 2014 02:24 jaybrundage wrote: Yea Balla is leaning town for me atm. I still think Koshi could be scum but everyone shitting on my push on him, means that the push wasn't not as good as I thought it was. So I won't be pushing him now and will try to get reads on other people. excuses. Huh. I think I've just convinced myself Jay is pretty damn scummy. Also I noticed how in the town examples above, Jay has no problem asking people why they think he's scum, or confirming that they their read on him is that he's scum. In this game he'd rather defend himself than confirm someone's scum read or call them out on it. This is a beautiful meta case, and how it should be done. Don't forget to see if you can do the same thing with the sidesprang stuff. ##unvote I really like the fact that you actually have thought this through and you have a real followup. On February 08 2014 03:28 Hopeless1der wrote: Thats basically the same thing I said balla..I just didnt say it was his normal town play. Instead I explained why his play was townie to me. Eh, I disagree here lol. Like, I don't really like the way oats plays from a town perspective, so what you said about him is pretty meh to me. The fact that he is consistent from last game is the more important part for me. It's good for you because you have a followup, but I don't really think it makes him super town the way he does what you're saying it's more null. | ||
Balla24
2322 Posts
I quoted stuff from it last night guys... | ||
Balla24
2322 Posts
On February 07 2014 11:39 Oatsmaster wrote: Jay is scummy scum scum. Although he seems to really believe in this. The thing with his case on Koshi is that you cant make the case 3 hours into day 1. It doesnt work, not enough evidence. But is it too bad to be scum? Still making up my mind on that. Wafflingggg About jay's case on koshi, but after I point out this about you suki: On February 07 2014 12:29 Balla24 wrote: I'd just like to note that I think suki's point about jayb's case on Koshi being early or whatever is pretty bad. There's no reason to think that jaybrundage posting a case on koshi because it's early is scummy. That's just wrong. It's coming from a position where you KNOW jaybrundage is scum, which nobody knows except his possible scum buddies, thus he is OBVIOUSLY trying to fit in as town by posting a case early. He goes: On February 07 2014 12:31 Oatsmaster wrote: yeah oh shit Suki does nothing about the case JayB posted, she never comments on it at all, just says its too tryhard and therefore scummy. Oh thats bad. She literally says nothing on whether the case was good/bad or why and whether koshi is town/scum or why. Just shits on it because its early in the game? ##vote Suki Which is interesting because you made a similar point to one that Oats made in the first quote here about jay's "sad koshi' case. + Show Spoiler [Suki's comments] + On February 07 2014 08:49 suki wrote: ##unvote King Balla ##vote Jaybrundage What the hell are you seriously posting a super-serious-scum-hunt long ass post with quotes and reasoning two hours into the game? Take a CHILL PILL man. Holy shit. Why the hell are you in such a rush to find scum out of the first four people who have entered the thread. This attitude is completely different from last game and I don't mean that in a good way. On February 07 2014 08:58 suki wrote: It's not the action but the motives. Posting a long ass scum case this early just screams try-hard scum look at me I'm hunting scum! Why do you have to prove yourself this early as town, forcing a pure meta "koshi should be happy but he's not" argument to say that Koshi is definitely scum? | ||
Balla24
2322 Posts
On February 08 2014 09:57 Aquanim wrote: @JayB: So far as I can see, Jonny hasn't pushed any reads so far and I don't think he's trying to learn more about other players through his posts. Why do you think Alakaslam is a better lynch than him? To add to this: why does Koshi not "being on the menu" mean you don't want to lynch him? On February 08 2014 10:03 Alakaslam wrote: I have work folks. Yes I would be unhappy if I was lynched. That being said @suki: you appear to have "gotten better" as has Balla24 but it just doesn't strike me as the best entrance. I may be biased through being tired and a time crunch. I am kind of fighting a pregame bias that Jaybrundage is scum because last game I was CONVINCED he was scum and !what! He was almost made innocent child. Going to try some filters now. I would lynch the shit out of slam. He's harping on suki and I being trolly and having fun. This is coming from the guy who enters almost every single game i've seen him like that, trolly, whimsical, trying to push people's buttons etc. I just can't really believe that out of the entire thread this is all he's commenting on, considering who it's coming from. Interested to see what your filter diving spits out, other then the fact that Suki and I are having waaaay to much fun ^_^. I've been waiting on Jonny to post all day, even though I know he works during the day. Been kind of disregarding what he posted last night while drunk or whatever, so I really want to know if the stuff he said last night should be taken seriously. Specifically his defense against me, how my "filter looks terrible" etc etc. | ||
Balla24
2322 Posts
On February 08 2014 10:30 Oatsmaster wrote: Its a bit hard to type on my phone but LM is pretty scummy for defending hopeless off nothing. Not that im saying hopeless is scum but that scum have unjustifiable town reads. On February 08 2014 06:59 LoneMeow wrote: I'm thinking Hopeless1der is town. Kind of a gut read, but he seems to be posting pretty freely. See for example these: You are referring to this right? I had exactly the same thought. I like how he is self-conscious about how weak it is though. But those quotes he posted are just completely not alignment indicative for me and beyond that I don't agree that he is posting "freely". | ||
Balla24
2322 Posts
On February 08 2014 11:22 jaybrundage wrote: Guys I don't wanna go thru this again we shouldn't be trying to lynch me. I'm a true-blue townie. This better not be a real blue claim. It's too obvious for me to just ignore and hope that scum doesn't see it like I would normally do with a soft-claim. | ||
Balla24
2322 Posts
The probable mafia for me today are Jonnylaw and Alakaslam. Unfortunately they are both relatively lurky, thus hard to read. However this is in direct contrast to the previous game where they were both spammy and somewhat active for a period during every section of day 1. Alakaslam has so little content. I get the impression that he doesn't really know what to talk about in this game. I've expected to see a lot of posts on the verge of being spammy when he is here, related to what he is reading at the current moment. He started to do that earlier but didn't really follow through. The things he HAS chosen to talk about are just not helpful to town: On February 08 2014 04:55 Alakaslam wrote: I have been working both days and nights with little rest periods. Has been really bad. I did some reading though, and fwiw the start of the game had me really suspicious of the big change in Suki and Balla24's play. Can that stuff be explained? Things like a joke probabilities post about an RNG situation and kingship stuff, I really don't get it. Time wasting and whatnot, why did you do it? This is his first post. The first thing he decides to talk about is the change in suki and I's play. Mind you, I buckled down pretty quickly and got to business within the first 2 pages of the thread and this post is coming today LONG after everything has settled and there is plenty of real content to talk about. I don't understand the reasoning behind this post. What conclusion is he trying to draw? I don't see any attempt to draw a conclusion about our alignment. He leaves it open-ended for us to guess at what he's trying to get at. As if he wanted us to look back at it and say "Wow! These two really were trolly! That must mean they are scum. There had already been discussion on suki about it too. Same thing here, I don't understand the intent: + Show Spoiler + On February 08 2014 10:03 Alakaslam wrote: I have work folks. Yes I would be unhappy if I was lynched. That being said @suki: you appear to have "gotten better" as has Balla24 but it just doesn't strike me as the best entrance. I may be biased through being tired and a time crunch. I am kind of fighting a pregame bias that Jaybrundage is scum because last game I was CONVINCED he was scum and !what! He was almost made innocent child. Going to try some filters now. On his second return to the thread, he becomes more Alakaslam like. Starts posting inquiries on what he is currently reading. This is good. However it abruptly ends before he even gets to anywhere good within the thread, with him posting some self-meta analysis that he posted last game. I would have expected some conclusions from his read through. Does my vote that he commented on make me scummy? Is suki trolling more scummy? There are no conclusions. Slam makes conclusions regardless of how far-fetched they are. Is JB scummy for suggesting that he will policy lurkers and not having his vote on you? These are the questions I would expect him to be asking himself and posting the conclusions to. Instead he just makes broad statements and questions about the posts he finds interesting. The posts I am referencing are in the spoilers below, but it's basically just the rest of his posts. + Show Spoiler [The rest of slams posts] + On February 08 2014 10:17 Alakaslam wrote: Am I? Jay had better be leading that with any who agree on lynchig lurkers. Back to his. On February 08 2014 10:21 Alakaslam wrote: Open the nested quotes. What is with Balla's vote here? Yes I don't like the post much but if jay follows through then it is a policy we don't do often enough according to everyone, so why not? Indeed I anyone lurks harder than me tell me who and I will vote them until I find a filter as strikes me more scummy. On February 08 2014 12:19 Alakaslam wrote: After more irl and deciding I have to skim stuff I see a ploy of sorts. Jaybrundage did little but call out Suki and Balla early for trolling and stuff. They have said that is all in the interest of fun which I can understand. I too am someone who enjoys trolling... ... And rolling scum. Look, if you read TL mafia LXIII you will see the context for a quote I am about to copy in here. The point of this game is getting better, not more comfortable with trolling or believe me, there would be YouTube in my filter by now. On February 08 2014 12:19 Alakaslam wrote: After more irl and deciding I have to skim stuff I see a ploy of sorts. Jaybrundage did little but call out Suki and Balla early for trolling and stuff. They have said that is all in the interest of fun which I can understand. I too am someone who enjoys trolling... ... And rolling scum. Look, if you read TL mafia LXIII you will see the context for a quote I am about to copy in here. The point of this game is getting better, not more comfortable with trolling or believe me, there would be YouTube in my filter by now. One more thing: On February 08 2014 12:19 Alakaslam wrote: After more irl and deciding I have to skim stuff I see a ploy of sorts. Jaybrundage did little but call out Suki and Balla early for trolling and stuff. First off, I don't recall Jaybrundage calling out me and suki for trolling and stuff. Maybe he's talking about Jonnylaw? Regardless of who it is, this is a strange statement because that's literally all he's done himself, and if he's calling JB scummy for that then that's pretty sketchy... Moving on, Jonnylaw. I feel bad here because of his drunk posting last night and how I said I wanted to ignore it while waiting for Jonny to come back and tell me if they were serious or not. But it's been a while now... his activity level is making me very wary(did I use the right word?) on top of all the other stuff I've already posted about. So actually, mid-writing this I decide I don't really have anything more to say about Jonny. I'd appreciate if he would try again to refute the points I brought up against him last night, because all drunk jonny did was mis-interpret what I was saying and ignore other stuff then call me scum for my filter which has still not been followed up on. Actually he also did this while he was sober too: On February 07 2014 08:23 Balla24 wrote: This is not what I said. I didn't say there was something to discuss, I said you didn't give it a real thought. It's actually giving me flashbacks to Normal Mini Mafia 1 vibes where I was scum and I was called scum early by multiple people because of my activity, and unfortunately I wasn't able to re-establish myself in the thread like I would have liked. I'm not sure if that's what's happening here obviously until Jonny gives me some sense that this is not what's happening. Another thing that makes me feel worse about him is that when we are both town, we tend to work very well together, regardless of how clashy our personalities are. We're not working well together. I don't know who he thinks is scum, all I know is he read my filter and thought it smelled bad. Maybe that will change. The townies Suki, Aquanim, Hopeless1der all seem to be pushing pro-town things. Hopeless1der's game is much much different than last and i'm not getting any super bad vibes from him. The things he is doing he seems to have reason for it and anything that is unexplained he seems to have a followup and explanation for it. The things that stuck out to me last game are not apparent here. He is not content to sit around and talk about early game shennanigans, he is not super afk lurky like last time. Here's where I get the impression he doesn't want to be talking about policy, whereas like I made the case on last game, he is content to do so as scum: On February 07 2014 10:22 Hopeless1der wrote: I'm a little miffed that people are so hung up about talking about the old game. It is better than policy, so there's that... Then there are multiple points where I feel he is asking the right questions, these are things that I want to ask too and there seems to be reasoning behind them. + Show Spoiler + On February 07 2014 10:36 Hopeless1der wrote: How is Balla's first post indicative of alignment? On February 07 2014 11:21 Hopeless1der wrote: was koshi scum before or after his super serious vote on you jay? On February 08 2014 03:12 Hopeless1der wrote: because he's not randomly jumping around, there is a trigger, there is a process involved in moving from one person to another to pressure them and he follows through long enough to get a response without getting stuck in a tunnel. He doesn't worry about needing to drop his read, and yeah he's kind of called a lot of people scum so there are lots of options but its bring information to town and presenting new viewpoints without bringing in clutter or being a distraction. Here is an example of where he follows up on something. This was in reference to me asking him about his read on oats, sure it took a little for me to get it out of him but he got it out quickly in response to me. There's logical thinking here, and the desire to learn oats' alignment (and mine, in a previous post). The trolliness you guys can see on your own in his filter, I think that is more of a town trait for hopeless. Aquanim is more of the same. He has a natural inquisitive nature that I think is clear in his posting. He's trying to learn people's alignments. A lot of the questions he's asking are questions I would have asked myself, though there are also a lot of easy questions that have obvious answers as well. He's also trying to bring new information to the thread. + Show Spoiler + On February 07 2014 09:35 Aquanim wrote: @suki: What is your read on jayB and koshi, in the light of their little contretemps? On February 07 2014 13:16 Aquanim wrote: @jayb: Do you think it's impossible or unlikely that a town Koshi would have a gut read on you which he is unwilling or unable to state more precisely than that he thinks you feel "off"? I know in previous games I've had gut reads on people's posts where I had difficulty saying exactly what I didn't like about them, but was certain there was something weird. On February 08 2014 11:30 Aquanim wrote: Why don't you want to lynch alak "right now" if you don't think he's town? In the first quote is an example of something he does a lot: where he clearly thinks suki is scummy with his followup case on her, so he wants to force her to take a stance on the other possible other people he may or may not think are scummy for obvious reasons. He does this multiple times towards multiple people. The other two are examples of good questions that are attempting to learn more about the person and understand their alignment. Even though the last one is an easy question, it's something that Oats really has to address because it's just a weird thing to say. Everything seems to indicate that Aquanim is very curious, attempting to learn everybody's alignment. I said earlier that his attempts at starting conversation seemed awkward and he wasn't really getting that done. That's changed drastically and I think he's really getting what he wants from the thread now. The main thing for Suki is that, while I didn't like her initial cases on people. She defends them as if she really thought what she was saying was true. The koshi case was pretty bad, but she never really backed down from it. The jaybrundage meta case was unexplained, but she followed up with a great case on what she saw. The sidesprang case is one of the few where she does somewhat backdown: On February 08 2014 06:02 suki wrote: Sidesprang's meta: + Show Spoiler + Cop in II Titanic On December 10 2013 09:42 sidesprang wrote: Ok, so a lot of things going on. I agree we should not let lurkers stay silent, and should poke anyone that stays silent for to long. But there is a lot of value in not spamming down the thread if you are town, that will only make the scummy post harder to see. I'm mainly looking at you Xatalos, as you are on your third page in filter with like half of the post being oneliners. Even if town you will be detrimental to the town if you keep this up! There are others aswell, just used you as an example. -------- About Cora there are a few things I did not like and caught my eye. His opening post is not good, and if he's mafia hes basically just buying himself an excuse to lurk for day 1 and then come out day 2 and bring chaos onto the town. He also deflected a lot in his defence and basically just said "look at X he's scummier than me". And lastly he asked for people to vote for him if they found him scummy, which is very Anti-Town. I do not feel cora is mafia yet at least, but definetly worth to look at. ------- @Kish, can anyone that have played with him earlier say something about how he plays. He is deffo playing the most anti town atm, but he's also doing it on purpose which is frustrating. This is pretty much his first post in the game. Notice he writes a short thing about policy and then starts scum hunting. Most of his posts in this game are scum hunting, but I didn't find many difficult questions in this one. Town in Newbie Mini Mafia LI On January 06 2014 08:10 sidesprang wrote: You don't see a reason why people should help Bella with creating a "tough environment for mafia to hide in and lynch some mafia" ? Starts the game off with a pointed question trying to find TheChyz's motives. On January 06 2014 08:59 sidesprang wrote: @ onlywonderboy atm he is just null for me. from his PoV he has only stated obvious things so far. It not really contributing atm, but its to early to fault him for that. And he does say he is going to more active and contribute with meaningfull analysis, so as long as he atleast tries to do this we should be able to read him in the future. @ thechyz, I don't like him atm. In his first post he says he agrees with you and dont mind lynching lurkers to discourage lurking. But then in his second post he says he see no reason to why people should help you achivieving that same agenda he just agreed with. Feels very much like a contradiction to me. This is his third post in the game and he's pointing out contradictions. On January 07 2014 15:33 sidesprang wrote: @theDragoon Who would you vote for now and why ? Also, why did you change your mind and wanted to defend yourself afterall ? Questioning TheDragoon who was the top lynch candidate of the day. sidesprang was wary that the lynch on theDragoon was going to smoothly and tried getting information from theDragoon before the lynch. Miller in TL Mafia XX He spends most of the game apologizing for his low post quantity. scum in TL Mafia XVIII Like sidesprang pointed out, this scum game is from 4 years ago, something that I didn't think about as I was just looking through past games and not noticing the date. Regardless, I'll include some posts here to show where my line of thought came from in my case that I wrote up. On February 14 2010 12:00 sidesprang wrote: I definatly agree that we should not lynch someone based on day one clues, unless someone can make a foolproof case. But they should definatly be discussed and looked through, cause they could help us put the pieces toghter at a later day. And it also gives us something to talk about, and im pretty sure the more posts there are the more information one could gather from this game and put it togheter. policy talk to start the game On February 15 2010 00:30 sidesprang wrote: L's point about beeing 20 mafia and that it will take a long time before we get two different clues on a single mafia i dont really think is true. Last game i was in there was 8 mafia and they had 3kp. meaning at day 3 we in the worst case scenario had 1 mafia with double clues. In this game there is 20 mafia and 6 KP, meaning in the worst case we would have 4 double clues at day 4. But you with there beeing possible 12 mafia kills and 2 lynces one should think/hope that some mafia would die, and we get double clues at day 3 again. Two posts later, setup talk. On February 16 2010 08:05 sidesprang wrote: Man your so wrong about the overlapping clues thing. If we dont see overlapping clues before day 6, it is because the mafia only hits the town. And that is not realistic. The mafia hitting 1/3 each lynch seems realistic if not to low to me. Then we have 6 dead by day 3. And already overlapping clues. Altho the mafia would prolly have overlapping hits. But my point still stands. We will see overlapping hits WAY before day 6, and if we dont we're allready doomed cause we've lost half our town The next post, more setup talk. On February 21 2010 12:10 sidesprang wrote: i changed my vote to quickstriker, but i dont see why we should not double lynch tomorrow. Since i feel we have alot of good clues to work of, and we will get more. So you're gonna have to give more reasons for me to take away my double lynch vote. No reason for his vote. On February 26 2010 16:59 sidesprang wrote: First, my votes are not set in stone. If so i would not have voted so early. But its the weekend coming up and i know im definatly going out on saturday(and the voting closes 1AM(or something like that) in norway. So i had to vote something in case i wont have the time later, ofc i could have abstained but i think scamp is mafia and that L might be and he voting scamp, because of the cluelink towards you. voting L, because he has lead this town on so many wrong turns. And i don't see any real proof of him beeing non mafia, and if he is mafia he has gotten away with far to much allready. reasons for not voting johnnyspaz who i think is definatly mafia, let the other mafia team kill him. And to the clue link from malongo, im not really sure what aristocracy of money means but for the rest of the first bold sentence i feel that is a huge strech. And im not decafchickens friend And the bold part number two. That has to be a clue to johhnyspaz, i mean he gets turn into a pincushion. And he has a picture of sonic the hedgehog. Basically this is his only scum hunting effort in the game. Again, his filter was super short, but the thing that I noticed is the lack of scumhunting compared to his other town games. But I missed something big in my meta analysis.. That is, sidesprang was scum in the original Shadowed game. Scum in Shadowed Mafia On February 04 2014 10:14 sidesprang wrote: Lol wtf game started today afterall. Anyhow regarding policy shit, not much to say, think it's covered allready. But yeh, look for content instead not postcount. We do NOT want ppl spamming useless shit. Why did you want Jonny to out Ballas scumtells in the thread this early before Balla even had a chance to play into them ? On February 04 2014 12:29 sidesprang wrote: Firstly its Sidesprang, not sidesprung or whatever else ppl think it is. I don't mind Balla voting for LM, because I think if he keeps on playing like this he will hopefully be easy to read. As for why he voted I dont really agree with. LM's stance on koshi's "plan" is kinda like mine. Judge people based on content not number of posts, and also only reason to lynch lurkers is if there are no better options available. I liked your response, you had a reason for asking it and you had logic backing it up. Answer felt honest. Tho I do not agree with your logic. It's nice and all generating discussion, but I dont think going over ppl's meta this early is wise. As I think it would be harder to use meta against players if it's been discussed in thread first. The whole suki / jonny deal requires more thought if I wanna read something out of it. Aka atm I don't really know, and I will read more up on that tomorrow when I got better time. I got some people whom I feel are playing protown atm, but I see no reason sharing townreads at this point. I don't have scumreads atm, tho I got a bit interested in Suki since she disliked your post. A post I liked cause you are doing what I think you should be doing with lurkers (get them to post, so you can read them, not lynch them blindly). People should post enough to be readable and enough to get their scumreads out. I don't belive in a set number. his first two posts in the game. Basically... He doesn't spend time on policy talk and he starts hunting right away. So yeah. Taking this into account my case on sidesprang doesn't hold any water. Based on the games that I linked in my original post, I think that my conclusions were reasonable - policy talk in his scum game and scum hunting in his town games. But taking into account the previous Shadowed game where he was scum it's obvious he's changed (read improved) his scum game quite a bit. Anyways, I suppose I'm null on sidesprang for now. I'll take a closer look at him later. But the way she does it is humble, she doesn't try to stick up for it at all when she realizes how off it is, and actually gives reasoning why it was bad. In contrast, if you remember Koshi's case from last game, when he realized it was bad it was more like "shit yeah this was bad sorry guys peace!" trying to sweep it under the rug. I'm probably one of the few, but I think that suki's trolling and roleplaying and all that is actually more indicative of a town player. They are more likely to be happy and care-free and attempt to have fun. Now i'm not saying this couldn't come from a scum player who is good at the game (like suki is), but I believe a scum player would be much more serious in attempting to fit in right away with the town, trying to scum hunt, trying to be pro-town etc. Beyond that I see real attempts at trying to figure out other's alignments, and a curiosity, almost more fierce then anybody else in this game. She has 7 pages of filter already for crying out loud. It's reminiscent of a town koshi, town rayn type player. Questionables Everybody else is rather questionable. I'm getting tired of sidesprang's dissapearing acts. He does this way too much. From the little he has posted he leans town-null. He wants to dispell attacks on him. Hes sharing his opinions on people more freely then last game. It's good. Lonemeow is playing similar to last game, where I thought he was scum, but he was town... sooooo...... we'll see about him. He posted a lot today, which is good in comparison to last game and the games i've read of him. That means he is somewhat motivated to play this game. We've seen him shut down in a scum game, and he's expressed his hatred for playing scum, so that bodes well for him. Jaybrundage started off bad pretty bad and since then he hasn't been amazing, but when he explained what was going through his head at the time of the shitstorm in the beginning, it kind of makes sense from a town perspective like others were saying. Lots of OMGUS which is annoying, but maybe it's because all the scum are picking on him so he can't even get anything else out before he is attacked again. And in all seriousness, he isn't actually thinking like me at all. So we'll see what that means at the end I guess lol. Finally.... ##vote Jonnylaw | ||
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I'll give some updated thoughts on Koshi though, since while my opinion of him might not have changed, it's been a while since I commented and he has posted plenty. Essentially Koshi is posting a lot, but there isn't really much. When I try to think about what Koshi has done beyond the early game, I don't remember anything, so that's bad. But looking at him, I don't really know much about what he's thinking beyond the fact that he really really thinks JL & JB are scum. That kind of conviction is ok, but it's also important to know more about what you think of the rest of the town. Oh and one more note about suki: the only real thing that i'm wary about is the fact that she is so eager to have fun when it comes to me. It scares me because there's always the possibility that she is trying to play to my emotions and pocket me. The obvious answer however, is that she's just having fun like me, so I'll go with that for now. Just know that I AM thinking about it. | ||
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On February 08 2014 15:03 Oatsmaster wrote: man meta isnt so cut and dry IMO. Where is johnny's case. What are you referring to in the first sentence? At this point I don't even care about the case, i'm more worried about where jonny is in general T_T | ||
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On February 08 2014 15:13 Oatsmaster wrote: Sidesprang actually. Care to explain then? I really don't know what you're talking about. | ||
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On February 08 2014 17:27 JonnyLaw wrote: Hi guys. We had a new implementation explode as I was supposed to leave. Eight hours later I'm coming to make a case. Fielding questions. Otherwise reading filters. Sounds rough, welcome back. Unfortunately I'm going to sleep. I just have one question: Do you stand by everything drunk Jonny said last night? Goodnight y'all! | ||
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On February 09 2014 00:16 suki wrote: Does it bother you that EVERYONE is suspicious of Jonny Koshi? No. Enough time has passed with the cases out there where Jonny has not responded adequately that I would seriously expect some bussing at this point. If Jonny has been as inactive with his mafia mates as he has been in the thread then It's totally reasonable. On February 08 2014 17:49 JonnyLaw wrote: Uhh I called you scum? that's about it. No but I'm still not convinced. I don't have any clear town votes yet. koshi, slam and lm for scum. koshi for content and lm slam for lurking. rest neutral. i'm bad at finding town. i can find scum though. This isn't all that I was talking about. I was talking about your "defense" against me, your accusation that JayB is scum, your response to suki on something. Because if that's really your defense against my early case then we still have problems. On February 09 2014 03:00 Coagulation wrote: I dont give a shit. after having hosts trying to ban me for using it in tlmafia ban thread then you guys dont deserve it. you dont like it then I cant wait to see you explain in tlbanlist that i should be banned for not playing to my win condition cause I wouldnt post a fucking image macro when im town. Hi Coag welcome to the game. A note that your spot is suspected to be scum already. Therefore, what do you make of Jonnylaw, Koshi and Jaybrundage, the top 3 lynch candidates today. + Show Spoiler + I will not be using the seal for my reads for any reason | ||
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On February 09 2014 03:24 Coagulation wrote: mang I dunno i got a ton of reading to catch up on. Im not even sure I fully understand the whole 2 game setup significance. can you explain it to me like im 5? The two games are unrelated beyond the initial players in the first game. Everybody on this game shadowed them, so we just watched what they were doing and asked questions about what they were doing. After that, the players in the first game became our coaches in this game. So you should be assigned Slam's coach and have a QT with him. Beyond that, the 2 games are independent. Alignments were rerolled etc. This game should be treated as any other normal game (just know that most people here have an emphasis on learning), just that you have a coach too like a newbie game. | ||
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On February 09 2014 03:27 Koshi wrote: I am not a lynch candidate for today. seriously... Welcome Coag. You should post the seal in a scumgame and get it over with. You are too. Just because scummy people want you to be lynched does not mean that you will not be pushed. Therefore, it is important to give his opinion on you, a lynch candidate. He may also choose to bring up a new candidate if he wishes, but I doubt he has time to read all that and make a case and push it. | ||
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On February 09 2014 03:36 Hopeless1der wrote: + Show Spoiler + On February 09 2014 01:57 Toadesstern wrote: Votecount: JonnyLaw ( 6 ) : jaybrundage ( 2 ) : suki ( 1 ) : Koshi ( 1 ) : Balla24 ( 0 ) : Aquanim ( 0 ) : Alakaslam ( 0 ) : Sidesprang ( 0 ) : 1 people who haven't voted yet: Sidesprang With 6 votes JonnyLaw is set to be lynched Deadline on Saturday, Feb 08 9:59pm GMT (GMT+00:00) if you happen to find any mistakes in the above, please inform us/me about it immediatly, thanks. I should teach my excel sheet some grammar... "1 people" sounds awkward suki's a lynch candidate too right balla? If you guys want her to be, then post a case. I think she's town and I already shared why. I am not making any associative connections until Jonny flips scum though which I would assume is what you are getting at. On February 09 2014 03:35 Koshi wrote: The big post on how we should lynch the blueclaim from suki. Did we like it? The thing about the blue claim is that... it's a terrible claim, unfortunately. But you're right, suki not taking into account that it might be true and thus the implications of lynching jayb is bad. Honestly, when I first read the "claim", my thought that it was an attempt to breadcrumb being blue so that he could use it later on when he actually claims something. There was no reason to claim blue at all for him at that point, and if you're breadcrumbing then you should be bread-crumbing your role IMO. Plus breadcrumbs should be impossible to find without explanation. | ||
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On February 09 2014 03:57 suki wrote: First off, I don't see it as a claim. What are you going to do if Jay comes back later and says 'It wasn't a claim, it was a figure of speech and I didn't realize that it was a soft blue claim when I posted it'? Also like I said, I'm certain that Jay is scum, and I'm willing to give Jonny a second chance. Blue claims aren't a free get out of jail ticket. Everyone just brushes over all my posts about Jay's contradictions with a magic 'oh he kinda blue claimed' sweeper when the evidence is right there laid out in front of you. Just like you guys don't see Jay as completely scummy as I do, I don't see Jonny as completely scummy the way you do. What if Jonny claimed blue right now? Would you be like omg we can't lynch him today? If your answer is you'd still lynch him then you see where I'm coming from. This is why I asked already. The fact that he ignored it makes me think what I was thinking already. Don't get me wrong here Suki. I'm lynching Jonny because I think he's the better lynch then Jay. NOT because jay claimed blue. I'm not giving jonny a second chance because he has already had one and he blue it (hueuhehue). On the other hand, I don't like your initial post about Jonny V Jay for a few reasons: On February 09 2014 00:11 suki wrote: I just can't get over my read on Jay. He's scum to me through and through. Even before he started blowing up at me his attitude just didn't make sense and didn't fit with his town play. People give him the pass for 'making changes' but they never explain why these changes make it more likely that he's town. If it's between Jonny and Jay, then I'll push Jay. Jonny's case on Koshi based on the early gameis so bad. His continued use of the previous game to provide examples is stupid. However if I give him the benefit of the doubt and believe that he was working and he's short on time, then it's easier to accept that his cases are bad. At least he's pushing cases, giving reads freely, being upfront. Contrast it with Jay's behavior. Yes, I am tunneling Jay. I'm just so damn sure of him. I don't buy his blue 'claim' at all (true-blue townie? what kind of stupid claim is that). How is it that Jay's been here so much more than Jonny and yet he's the one that has less scum-hunting activity? Remember how we were like when Koshi came into this game and claimed he was going to be super active, that if he didn't hold up to it then he's an easy lynch? Jay came into this game with an over the top IM GONNA HUNT SCUM attitude and he HAS NOT DELIVERED. Fuck. I am willing to give Jonny a second chance. His cases that he made are bad but that's no reason to fault him, at least he made cases, posted opinions and pushed the person he thought was scummy. What is Jay doing? Jonny came in and had no problems making a shitty case on Koshi just now yet I ask Jay why he thinks Koshi is scum and he dodges hard and later says 'Koshi is null'. Jay can't even stick to his own guns. Look at the votes in the thread. EVERYONE is on Jonny. Everyone. But there's so much hesitation with Jay. Face it, Jonny's the easy (mis)lynch target and not because he's been playing scummy, but because he has a few tweaks to his game that are suspicious (such as not flaming people for excuses, not commenting on Jay), because he's been away and because his cases are horrible. BUT he is OBJECTIVELY (yes Oats, Objectively) doing more pro-town things than Jay. Arrghghghghgh. 1. Because you don't consider the blue claim hard. I like that you have a followup and have actually thought about it though, but that should have been important in this post. 2. Because you're calling Jonny more townie for stuff that you called Jay scummy for earlier. 3. I don't agree at all with the fact that Jonny is "pushing cases" and "sharing reads freely". Why do you think jonny is doing this better than jay? I think they are both doing a pretty terrible job of both. 4. Jonny and jay have had multiple chances to redeem themselves. Jonny has failed MUCH harder than jay has. MUCH MUCH MUCH harder. There's just so much stuff in here that I just straight up disagree with. On February 09 2014 04:10 Coagulation wrote: ##vote JonnyLaw Why? You can't just say nothing. On February 09 2014 04:13 suki wrote: It's so frustrating. Even Balla said my meta case was good but won't address my points specifically. I get focusing on your most scummy target... So whatever. I guess I'll just wait until after the lynch and see what everyone says then when Jonny is out of the picture. I thought your meta case was good, but I also have a meta case on Jonny that you thought was good as well, so you're really going to fault me for that? I think Jonny is scummier than jay. Simple as that. Go back to my huge post to see exactly what my logic is. | ||
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On February 09 2014 04:28 suki wrote: Explain to me the townie mindset for Jay's non-deliverance of his super scum hunting attitude at the beginning of the game. I don't disagree. But I also see ANY versions of jaybrundage becoming super demotivated in this game from starting at like the very beginning of day1 being called scum and there being relentless aggression. So I believe it to be a null point. Suki can you share your unbiased thoughts on Jonnylaw WITHOUT comparison to Jaybrundage? | ||
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On February 09 2014 05:45 suki wrote: I dont oppose this lynch, I just provided this because Balla asked for it. I tried to be unbiased in my conclusions, looking at Jonny's actions from both a scum and town viewpoint. I think a short-on-time scum Jonny can play a game exactly like this. But I also think a short-on-time town Jonny can also play a game like this. The reason i'm using the activity thing as a point against Jonny and NOT jaybrundage is simply because of the fact that I have soooooo much more exp with Jonny then jaybrundage. You were in NMM1: so you I'm sure you can see the similarities here, although I believe I am pushing Jonny MUCH harder then he was pushing me. I am very active as town, jonny calls me out when i'm scum for being inactive, i try to brush it off as RL but I can never really get back into it. Here it's similar, though he had a much better thread presence early on, probably due to stuff happening at a much faster rate this game. I don't have the same situation/game to look at. | ||
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On February 09 2014 05:45 suki wrote: I dont oppose this lynch, I just provided this because Balla asked for it. I tried to be unbiased in my conclusions, looking at Jonny's actions from both a scum and town viewpoint. I think a short-on-time scum Jonny can play a game exactly like this. But I also think a short-on-time town Jonny can also play a game like this. and I don't oppose a straight up oppose a jayB lynch. We're arguing over nothing really, it's not like either of us see our targets as town. | ||
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On February 09 2014 06:17 Koshi wrote: I feel it can come from town knowing he was under a shitton of pressure last game and it wasn't looking better this game. As scum it is pretty ballsy. I'm on suki's side here. I think his claim was scummy. Like I said before, no reason to do it, looked like he wanted to take credit for "claiming" it earlier when he might have actually got lynched. That's the only reasonable scenario I see for it. | ||
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On February 08 2014 11:22 jaybrundage wrote: Guys I don't wanna go thru this again we shouldn't be trying to lynch me. I'm a true-blue townie. I'm sorry but it was pretty clearly intended to be a claim. He ignored when I asked about it and then says this. On February 08 2014 13:13 jaybrundage wrote: Suki I'll make this clear I'm not getting lyncyhed. So move on. If that's not saying: I'm going to claim if I even get close to being lynched. Then I don't know what it is. | ||
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Coagagaslam, Oatsmaster, Hopeless1der. | ||
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Recall: On February 08 2014 09:39 jaybrundage wrote: Well doesn't look like your on the menu. Sooooooooooooo perhaps start up the barbie and roast some alakaslam tonite This was before that post. | ||
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On February 09 2014 06:51 jaybrundage wrote: Balla what do you think of Coag's entrance to the thread. I think he could be scum. From what I understand about this badge people were talking about. Its some tell that he posts to show that hes town. His hesitation to do so is interesting. Also the fact that if this third sub out turns out too be scum that would be pretty lulz. I find it interesting that scum have more of an obligation to there teammates so they feel more inclined to sub out if they aren't posting to a certain standard. Also its interesting Alakaslam said he probably wouldn't be subbing out and then did. I am on the fence on Suki. This post talking about me and jonny was really bad. However the post where she goes in-depth on jonny was pretty good. She put alot of work into it and looks like she actually try to reason it out. I won't go talk about her read on me because shes not being logical in that respect. Did you not read what I said? I will not use the badge to read coag at ALL. | ||
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In this game, every player has a 72% chance to roll town and a 28% chance to roll mafia. To calculate the chances of rolling mafia in this game if you have rolled town 3 times out of 3: P(town% game 1) * P(town% game 2) * P(town% game3) *P(mafia) = P(of a TTTM situation) To calculate the chances of rolling mafia in this game if you have rolled town 2 times out of 3: P(town% game 1) * P(town% game 2) * P(mafia% game1) * P(mafia) = P(of a TTMM situation) To calculate the chances of rolling mafia in this game if you have rolled town 1 times out of 3: P(town%game1) * P(mafia% game1) * P(mafia% game2) * P(mafia) = P(of a TMMM situation) And so on and so forth. If you have rolled mafia at ALL then the chances of any situation goes down significantly. Note: that these are all independent events and in reality your chances of rolling mafia are completely independent of your previous games, therefore this is all bullshit anyways, but its fun! Also, fuck you jonny!!! Just saying. | ||
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On February 09 2014 06:28 Toadesstern wrote: Votecount: JonnyLaw ( 8 ) : suki ( 1 ) : Koshi ( 1 ) : jaybrundage ( 1 ) : Balla24 ( 0 ) : Aquanim ( 0 ) : Coagulation ( 0 ) : Sidesprang ( 0 ) : Everyone has voted, noone to be modkilled as of now, good kids! With 8 votes JonnyLaw is set to be lynched Deadline on Saturday, Feb 08 9:59pm GMT (GMT+00:00). You have left to vote! if you happen to find any mistakes in the above, please inform us/me about it immediatly, thanks. With 8 votes, it's highly likely that there is at least one scum on that bandwagon, because the other 2 people off the vote are suki and jaybrundage and I find it very unlikely that they are both scum. There was plenty of opportunity to bus, and it should have happened when they realized Jonny was not going to be able to get back in the game. From here, we should look at the reasoning that people had to be where they are. There are some people in that list of votes on Jonnylaw who do did not provide good reasoning for being there, that would be the following: Oatsmaster, Hopeless1der, Coagulation. They just tagged along for the ride. I consider this sketchy. @Coagulation, I asked you to provide reasoning for your vote on Jonnylaw and you just said placeholder. What did your read through of the thread lead to? Out of suki and jaybrundage, the 2 non-JL voters, Suki provided good reasoning for following through with her jaybrundage lynch. Whereas jaybrundage did not provide good reasoning whatsoever. @Jaybrundage, why did you leave your vote on suki? This looks really bad considering you never had a real good case on her AND you asked me about coagagulaslam before the end as if you thought that he was scummy but never voted on them. Your vote was useless this cycle. You didn't push anything. Please explain. There's not much else to say about this vote from what I can tell unfortunately. People who provided reasoning for being on the Jonnylaw lynch obviously look better, Koshi, Aquanim, Sidesprang, Lonemeow. We have a resolution period. There should be no talk of the night kills until then or night actions until then. Just talk about your reads. Night action talk gets way too wifomy. | ||
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On February 09 2014 08:56 Koshi wrote: It doesn't hurt anybody. And I think jayB is doc and he will get RB so who cares really. And here is exactly what I wanted to avoid. Just cause you're town doesn't mean you shouldn't think about what you are doing. Jesus dude. No more. PLEASE. | ||
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Here is his case on Koshi on his return to the thread: + Show Spoiler + On February 08 2014 17:46 JonnyLaw wrote: koshi is our scum #1 in this game. Sheeping Balla off the start. I pointed out that Jay did this last game and it bought Jay a lot of town points in balla's mind. Excuses. Excuses. Fucking Excuses. Why can no one call him scum and where is the posting like a madman? I hate this entire series of posts. Anyone who's not joking around is scum? Get the fuck outta here. Uhh where's the scum hunting? And another post threatening the power of town koshi. Unleash it already. This reminds Koshi of his "off feelings' about town jayb last game? I don't understand. Seriously this is getting worse and worse for me. I'll do the rest tomorrow. ##vote Koshi I'm around for a few minutes to chat. At this point in the game, there are a few lynch candidates. Alakaslam, Jonny, JayB and possibly Koshi. Out of these 3 for jonny, I believe that Alakaslam would have been the easiest to push. Koshi was reading town or just null to a bunch of people. So why does he decide to push for Koshi instead of for Alakaslam, or maybe even JayB who both already had a case or two on them and there was plenty of material to pick at. I see 3 options: 1) Alakaslam and/or Jayb are his scummates and thus he does not want to push them, so he pushes another target. 2) He did not want to push either of those two because he would have been criticized for easy pickings and an easy lynch. 3) Koshi is his scummate, jonny knows he's going to get lynched so he tries to make Koshi look as best as possible before that happens. Let's examine them: 1) holds credence mostly for Slam because Jonny never mentions Slam one bit except for this post, where he calls him scum, but doesn't push him. On February 08 2014 17:49 JonnyLaw wrote: Uhh I called you scum? that's about it. No but I'm still not convinced. I don't have any clear town votes yet. koshi, slam and lm for scum. koshi for content and lm slam for lurking. rest neutral. i'm bad at finding town. i can find scum though. If he thinks he's scum, then wouldn't Slam be a MUCH better target to try to deflect off of? On the other end of things. Alakaslam never got to mention jonny a single time before he replaced out, and his replacement Coag did not do much better. Although he did mention something that I think Jonny did, but he said Jay for some reason, can't really verify that though. For Jaybrundage, there's some connection in the early game, where Jonny says he thinks what he's done is scummy, but then doesn't really thinks he's scum. But they reacted much in the same way as each other during that early game, which I don't think two scummates would do that. And they talked about each other a LOT early on, which again, scummates tend to try to avoid on day1 if they can help it. 2) could be a possibility, but there were a variety of cases on alakaslam at that point (mine included), so I think it would have been worth it to try to push it and try to people to wagon onto alakaslam instead of him. Honestly I think that would have been one of his few chances to survive. 3) This is another good possibility with how fake some of the jonny-> koshi interactions look. However, if this were to be the case. I believe Jonny would have had less of a motivation to post more, and it would have made more sense if he just straight up disappeared completely but he actually looked like he had the intention to try to get koshi lynched. On the other side of this, we have Koshi calling him scum from literally the getgo of this game. I'm pretty sure Koshi put his vote on Jonny within like 2 hours of the game starting and left it there the entire day. That's pretty crazy for scummates, so I think this option is completely out the window for the most part. All these options are things I will be considering though, and I highly believe that #1 is the situation that occured. | ||
Balla24
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Balla24
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Balla24
2322 Posts
On February 09 2014 11:40 Coagulation wrote: I think its a pretty pro town atmosphere going on and that usually indicates scum that are lurking. Interesting, who do you classify in the lurking category then. Which of them do you see being more likely scum? | ||
Balla24
2322 Posts
On February 09 2014 11:46 Coagulation wrote: oats / lonemeow / aqua / sprang somewhere in there oats or lonemeow are most likely imo but thats not based on much Aquanim? Why do you consider aquanim to be a lurker. If it's not based on much then what is it based on, even if it's not much. On February 09 2014 11:46 suki wrote: Just for all you suki haters out there, having a different opinion about people and strongly pushing my scum read and trying to get people to see what I see are all not scummy. There's no reason to start playing paranoid town lets-lynch-the-most-active-person-in-the-game at this point. Like seriously. I can't believe you guys are even considering this. Nobody's lynching you, we're discussing you. That should be good right? I mean suki you basically hard defended Jonny by pushing jay so hard over him. That's a hard thing to gulp when jonny flips scum. There's reason for it, you can prove whether or not it's true or not. But please, we know what you think about jaybrundage. Let's see something about others now. You have to admit it is a pretty hard tunnel, even if he does turn out to be scum, it's anti-town at the very least since it makes it harder to read you since your opinions on others aren't known as much. | ||
Balla24
2322 Posts
On February 09 2014 11:54 Coagulation wrote: its based on the warm and fuzzys I get from having played in over 500 mafia games. Which you obviously can vocalize from such a great wealth of experience? Maybe? ^_^ On February 09 2014 11:56 suki wrote: It's not like I just tunneled the hell out of Jay and ignored everyone else and you have nothing in my filter except stuff about Jay. I know this, I'm not saying you didn't post anything about anything else, but you didn't push anybody else. I don't know who else you think is scum basically. | ||
Balla24
2322 Posts
I've been wrestling with suki's alignment for the past like 4 hours. I think this is where the term "Svengali" applies or whatever Slam loves to use. She's way too good at manipulating me. She's way too good at scum. There's so much in her filter that is sooooooooo townie, but there's so much that's making me think back to the scum game she had and saying... wow... that's really similar. I've probably written and erased like 3 of my long posts about her now... maybe I should just post both the town version and the scum version. | ||
Balla24
2322 Posts
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Balla24
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Balla24
2322 Posts
Based on my vote analysis earlier, I stated that I think at least 1 mafia is in the Jonnylaw vote because - I doubt the 2 other mafia would both stay off the vote, when it was looking fucking dire all day for jonny. - (new point) Suki/Jay cannot be mafia together. There's no way they do that stupid OMGUS crap and suki pushes jay that hard when they are already losing 1 of their teammates. It is possible that neither of them are mafia and that both mafia are in the vote. I think we can come to this conclusion later. For now, out of the 2: I think it is Suki. Before we go any further I'd like for you guys to reference these recent games if you'd like to look at her meta: Newbie Mini Mafia LI - Mafia Normal Mini Mafia Episode 1 - Town Shadowed Mini Mafia - Town In her mafia game. She went HAM on her teammates, bussed them all game. Never followed through and lynched them (she didn't need to). My first thought here is: in this game, she would have followed through on Jonnylaw since it was so dire for him. But no, I've never seen a situation for her where her teammate actually gets lynched, so this is new territory when it comes to meta. I think she's smart enough to know that she would probably get more town cred by NOT pushing jonny, just lightly bussing him and pushing someone else hard. There's a few general things that are shooting off red flags in her play for me: - Her care level and activity level have SKYROCKETED since her last 2 games. It's huge. 9 page filter on day 1? That's insane compared to her what 4.5 page per day filter in the other games. As mafia she was fitting the activity level of the game, when Jonny and I were alive in Newbie LI, she was active as hell, as soon as we started dropping off, so did her activity level, since the game started falling off when we died. This game I feel is VERY VERY active, which results in her large filter. Check the previous game to see what i'm saying, it's tiny compared to mine, here she's eclipsing me. - She is SO MUCH MORE CONFIDENT in her reads and reasoning when she is mafia. She will push and push and push till she gets what she wants. In her town games, she flip flops a lot and swaps votes tons. She reacts to people's defenses and gets swayed. There's none of that here. Here's something interesting that I found: + Show Spoiler [Bleeding] + On January 07 2014 15:42 suki wrote: I think I was pretty clear in my posts as to why I think Dragoon is scum. I feel that his defense of Asuna is a major scum slip and the more he tries to justify it the more I believe it. Dragoon has also not played a pro-town game at all. His only scum reads have been on those who are attacking him, and he hasn't even taken the time to properly form a case. Like, I still don't know why he thinks I'm scummy I think that's the only reason he's given as to why I'm scum. Here is his defense post on me: Where is the analysis? He's just blindly attacking me because hey, I straight up said he's the scummiest person in the game. Same with the other people he's called out. I'd be very surprised if he bleeds green because his play has not been pro-town at all. On February 08 2014 13:03 suki wrote: Hmm.. If you are town Jay I deeply apologize. However I think the only thing that will convince me of that is seeing you bleed green. All my points against you aside, when I ask you for a scum read I expect a scum read. Not some flaky excuse that you don't want to do it. I don't see any analysis going on here. Just excuses and OMGUS. This type of confidence and use of the "i want to see your blood" phrase is COMPLETELY absent from her town games. - She's not being convinced by anything really. Everything she does is based on her reasoning and her logic. This is in complete contrast to her 2 recent town games, where almost every time she attacked somebody, she read their defense (even weak defenses) and would say "ok, that's nice" and switch targets (often time to the target of her target). I honestly would have expected that to happen with Jay here. It didn't. Let's look at some of the flip flopping she does and some of the confidence she exudes in her mafia play: + Show Spoiler [Flip/Flopping town] + On January 21 2014 09:52 suki wrote: You know what, I agree with you Barristan. I think Zarepath's case on VE is just a list of points that tries to squeeze out any sort of scumminess. It's weak, but he sounds like he's trying so hard to make it work. His follow up posts are all trying to keep up the pressure on VE. Compared to the filter linked by Barristan, Zarepath's tone has changed completely. In his previous game filter he had no problem listing off a bunch of people who he thought were scummy, and doing a bunch of analysis. In this game he's only talked about VE and no one else, and VE is not the only suspicious person in this game. ##unvote ##vote Zarepath I'm going to lay off VE for a bit. Pressuring him is going nowhere and I think he's defended well. On January 22 2014 02:21 suki wrote: Yeah ok. Re-reading again, this post reads townie to me. Particularly the part where he points out that his case was ignored, I think for scum it doesn't matter if people listen to their arguments as long as a townie is getting lynched, so pointing out his post reads more town. Tunneling can be done by town, stretching cases too far is also possible for a really tryhard town. Zarepath's switch to bum doesn't make sense if both of them are scum. And I agree that bum looks scummy. ##unvote ##vote bumatlarge On January 22 2014 06:00 suki wrote: I actually really really like everything here. Many of these things I didn't consider previously. One other thing I was eyeing was Crossfire's soft defense of Zarepath earlier in the game. Couple this with Zarepath including Crossfire into his list just now (alongside a really stupid desire to lynch WileE)... I think there's a good chance of them being scumbuddies. ##unvote ##vote Zarepath On January 22 2014 06:56 suki wrote: ##unvote Zarepath obviously did not have a fakeclaim, his reaction was genuine. On February 05 2014 02:24 suki wrote: So right now Oats is super scummy to me. His "case" against Koshi is bad, and yet he continues to push it. He's also not consistent with his views: This is almost a scum claim right here. Oats is doing the exact thing that he says scum would do, and yet he's calling other people out for it. Who is Oats willing to lynch today? (... On a side note, I don't approve of the personal attack calling Hopeless a 'useless piece of shit'.) Anyways. He suddenly thinks Hopeless is super scummy, without any reasoning. This is after LoneMeow has stated suspicions on Hopeless so it feels like a bandwagon. Hopeless was one of the people who didn't shit on Koshi's policy, and said that the policy makes him feel motivated. So this big scum tell that Oats has been pushing the entire game doesn't apply to his choice of lynches? He reads cake as null and yet it's cake and hopeless who he wants to discuss. Why not me, who you said was scummy for 'jumping on Koshi's policy' or those 'other dudes' that you so specifically called out? Why is LoneMeow town even though he was the most vocal about probably not meeting Koshi's 40 post policy? Hm. Also this exchange just leaves a bad taste in my mouth: Also, why does Oats avoid Balla's question here? He's not being transparent, and if he thinks Balla is town then why throw the question back at him? In summary, Oats is calling people scummy for something that he himself is actively doing. His reads on people seem random, rather than thought out. There's no logical progression on why he thinks Hopeless is super scummy and worth lynching (it feels like bandwagoning to try to push an easy lurker lynch). There's no explanation on why LoneMeow is town to him despite the dissonance with his 'Koshi policy' case. When asked to explain himself he's extremely reluctant. He tries to deflect attention from himself. This all reads as scum to me. ##vote Oatsmaster On February 05 2014 14:54 suki wrote: I think Oatsmaster's defense addresses my case sufficiently, and I like the direction he's taken after defending himself. That is, his tunnel on Hopeless. I've noted that previously as town he correctly called out hopeless for being scum in TL Mafia XLIII: Time to Die, basically for lurking and not contributing. He is doing the same here in his pressure on Hopeless. I'm still waiting on Hopeless to contribute something to the thread. Most of his posts are defense posts and fluff, he keeps promising content but hasn't delivered. ##unvote ##vote Hopeless1der At this point I also would be happy to lynch LoneMeow. He's done absolutely nothing this game. I think sidesprang's contributed more to this game in his one big post than LoneMeow has in his entire filter. On February 06 2014 01:31 suki wrote: ##unvote ##vote cakemanofdoom Hopeless is making sense. cake has been wishy washy all game. He bandwagons onto Hopeless, even though he thinks Koshi is mafia. He's ok with voting LoneMeow because LM is lurking. Like, he's taking the easy path. I read through his filter and I learn absolutely nothing. Like, it seems like he's contributing but when you really look closely he's not really saying anything that progresses towards a lynch. Even his case against Koshi feels non-enthusiastic. + Show Spoiler [Confident Scum Suki] + On January 07 2014 09:49 suki wrote: Hey guys, I'm back. First and foremost I think it's prudent to address the person that strikes me as the number one scum in the game: theDragoon The more I read these posts the more I dislike them. He's basically stating that he knows Asuna's "excuses, bandwagoning and self doubt" are due to her inexperience, and he's not leaving any room to interpret them as scummy. How would a town Dragoon be so sure? I'm more and more confident that the 'knows more about Asuna' line really is a scum slip. Other things that scream scum to me: theDragoon's knee jerk reaction to vote OWB because of an incorrect timeline. - Attacking his attacker for a slight inconsistency. His statement that Balla is rising up on his suspicions list with Balla's 'immediate' jump to lynch him. - More of the same His flip-flopping on Derrida, first saying his suspicion is 'low' and then on his very next post saying Derrida is higher up. - Scummy enough, and he even admits that he's flip-flopping His top scum reads are Day_Walker because he doesn't like that Day_Walker has a town read on him (???), and me, because he thinks I'm too eager to scumhunt (also ???). And aside from his knee-jerk suspicions thrown at OWB, Balla and now Derrida he hasn't contributed any other reads. + Show Spoiler + His top 2 scum read post: I'm not good enough at this game to get scum reads from forum posts. If you REALLY want me to give my top 2 most suspicious people are: Day_Walker: If I don't buy his town read on me, why should I believe his other reads. I've got the most votes on me right now and I want to see if Day_Walker still thinks I'm a townie. suki: "Okay then, lets get back to scumhunting :D". A bit too eager to go scumhunting there, don't ya think? Not really a good reason to call him mafia. And finally under all this pressure then he says his play is due to him being new to the game and self-destructs. I feel a lot of frustration in Dragoon's most recent posts, and I kind of feel bad for him since he is new to Mafia and this is a really gut-wrenching game, but I really do think his inexperience is his downfall and that there's no way he's not mafia here. ##vote theDragoon More analysis on its way. If there's anything you want me to answer post it; I'll be here for a bit. On January 07 2014 15:33 suki wrote: Mmm.. I'm not biting. This isn't good townie logic. Excuses, bandwagoning and self-doubt may be signs of newbie town, but they are also signs of mafia. You can't excuse someone for displaying mafia traits just because you display them. Again, it feels like you know that Asuna is a newbie town and that's what's suspicious here. The pro-town thing to do in your spot is to post the best analysis you can on the scummiest people you can find. This just feels like a last-ditch attempt to try to throw suspicion on everyone who voted you under the pretense of a "defense post" and see if someone bites. On January 07 2014 15:42 suki wrote: I think I was pretty clear in my posts as to why I think Dragoon is scum. I feel that his defense of Asuna is a major scum slip and the more he tries to justify it the more I believe it. Dragoon has also not played a pro-town game at all. His only scum reads have been on those who are attacking him, and he hasn't even taken the time to properly form a case. Like, I still don't know why he thinks I'm scummy I think that's the only reason he's given as to why I'm scum. Here is his defense post on me: Where is the analysis? He's just blindly attacking me because hey, I straight up said he's the scummiest person in the game. Same with the other people he's called out. I'd be very surprised if he bleeds green because his play has not been pro-town at all. On January 08 2014 01:06 suki wrote: Directed to Balla: Several recent quotes from Balla: + Show Spoiler + This is the most one sided lynch ever. I'm sorry but this should seriously be making you weary (suki/jonnylaw). The people who are not voting seem to also be tentatively saying that they are ok with the lynch if it were to happen now, besides Day_walker who probably is thinking along the same lines of this tbh. I'm searching for a new target. I really don't like how hard you lurked today sidesprang, so I'd lynch you just based on that, but other than that, I find Derrida pretty scummy. Ugh it's just so hard because I totally can see how scum would buss their teammate in this current situation. It's different than other one-sided lynches in the previous games because of how dragoon shut-down. Like I would totally buss him.. If I were scum, I would probably begin to buss him after he self-voted, so i'd look @ Derrida, suki and sidesprang (if im jsut looking at it chronologically, jonnylaw too) I mean, let's be honest, there is 100% for sure scum in the people who already voted him. Having them have a forced hand on what they think about him might be a good thing. It's gonna be a weight on EVERYONE's back, not just towns. I agree that the lynch on theDragoon is going smoothly, however that could just be mafia seeing the writing on the wall and deciding not to oppose. I agree that the smoothness of the lynch needs to be considered, however in the end we should still be lynching the scummiest person. Do you disagree? Also, you were the second person to vote for theDragoon, and your vote hasn't changed since then. I just want to clarify, do you still find theDragoon to be the most scummy? On January 13 2014 23:43 suki wrote: Alright I'm here. I had a reread through TheChyz's filter and I think he's been slipping hard since Day 2 ended. Here is TheChyz's conversation with Balla during Night 2, bolded parts for emphasis: + Show Spoiler + On January 12 2014 03:52 TheChyz wrote: Anyways I still want to reread some peoples filters to make sure I didn't confuse things between people and I'll have my explanation before night ends, but can you post yours aswell Balla : "Day 3 is going to be fun if what i'm thinking is happening. Will post about it later." On January 12 2014 03:57 Balla24 wrote: Also: there's 3 hours left, if I were going to post it I would have plenty of time to post it. I lost faith in the theory anyways. On January 12 2014 04:03 TheChyz wrote: And Balla, thats a bullshit reason not to make your post. You said "Day 3 is going to be fun if what i'm thinking is happening. Will post about it later" and since you keep pestering others to explain their thoughts, I expect you to do the same. On January 12 2014 04:06 Balla24 wrote: NO fuck that that's so scummy. It's pretty obvious what I had to say was due to night actions. You're pretty silly if you can't see that. So why would I post it 3 HOURS before the night is over and let mafia plan around that. MOST IMPORTANTLY THOUGH: Why are you pushing me so hard for it? I'm clearly active. This is SO fricking scummy from you Chyz. Do you need it to make a decision on what to do with your scum buddy? On January 12 2014 04:22 TheChyz wrote: @Balla What is so scummy about it, your doing the exact same thing from everybody else and forcing them to explain things, what makes you such a special case that whenever you say something we should just let you pass cause your active? Jonny (i think) said that you are active both scum and town so I find no reason why you felt that posting that you will post your thoughts later and then now not wanting to is scummy from me. Seems like your being very defensive. And you don't have to post now, just before night ends (even if its 1 sec before) On January 12 2014 05:00 TheChyz wrote: I didn't skip it, it will be done before the night ends. still got time. First off, I feel that TheChyz's pressure on Balla is really off. He pressures Balla for not providing his reads, and Balla replies there's still three hours before the night is over. TheChyz calls bullshit on Balla's reasoning. Following that, Balla asks TheChyz for analysis, and TheChyz simply replies there's still time. This inconsistency stands out to me, and I think there's a very good reason for it if you assume TheChyz is mafia - He wants to know what Balla's reads are before he posts his own analysis. There is no reason to assume Balla is not 1-shot vig as he claimed, and yet TheChyz seems to be getting ready to throw suspicion at Balla. Perhaps if Balla had his reads completely wrong and had posted them early enough, scum may have kept Balla alive. TheChyz posts his analysis at 2:58, 2 minutes before the deadline. Balla posts his at 2:59. The day post is posted at 3:02. Asuna has also made a strong case against TheChyz, the most striking of which is: Looking at his 'setup analysis' where he wrongly concludes that there is a SK, it may just have been a ploy to root out the remaining blue role, which he was successful at doing now that Asuna has role claimed. TheChyz tries to reason his way out by saying it was intentional or that it was due to his english, however I think there's enough evidence to strongly say that he screwed up in Night 2 and Day 3 and revealed himself through his actions and words. ##unvote ##vote TheChyz On January 14 2014 06:09 suki wrote: Just popping in to say that if theChyz flips scum in an hour, and I'm pretty sure he will, then BigDad is definitely his scumbuddy. TheChyz has been defending BigDad all game while not being under any pressure himself due to his Day 1 antics. It makes sense for a scum who is treated like a townie to back up his buddy who is under suspicion. At the beginning of the game BigDad stated a soft defense of TheChyz ("I'm leaning toward Balla and TheChyz being townie"), when TheChyz was under pressure for his antics, but ever since that post BigDad has put mild pressure against TheChyz until his full on bus today. The fact that BigDad has never closely analyzed TheChyz I think makes sense if both of them are scum. I think we've solved the game guys :D I'm getting jitters anticipating the flip. Unfortunately I have a dinner with my family so I'll miss the deadline but I'll pop back on as soon as I can. We're not seeing any of that flipfloppiness really this game. - She tends to do this thing where whenever she gives an opinion on someone, she bolds their name up front first and then writes about them as mafia. I don't see that in her town games at all and she started doing it here but stopped. Pretty weak point, but meh whatever. - She's been buddying up to me hella hard. It's been making me nervous all game and it hasn't stopped now. Like I really enjoyed the fun we were having but...it just scares me. Those are the general trends i'm noticing that are conflicting with this game. Beyond that, everything is pretty townie, her reasoning and followups are very solid. There are no serious contradictions or flaws in her logic or misrepresentations of what people are saying. Amazingly enough, I've come to expect this from a scum suki. She's really good. TL;DR: Scum suki is scary. Fuck im scared. Somebody hold me. Post more guards or some shit cause they raping everybody out here. | ||
Balla24
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Did I make it to Theoden Horsemaster status? | ||
Balla24
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Balla24
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Goodnight you fucking shitty. | ||
Balla24
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Balla24
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Balla24
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Balla24
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On February 10 2014 01:36 Hopeless1der wrote: it's about the right number of townreads though. On February 10 2014 01:36 suki wrote: Do you disagree with any of my reasons? Are you suspicious of any of the people who I am calling likely town at this point? Yeah it's the perfect amount. Just wanted to see reaction. No I don't disagree with any of them. Suki what do you make of the votes? | ||
Balla24
2322 Posts
I feel that Suki's progression makes more sense. She was pushing jaybrundage hard because she thought he was scum. Jay's doesn't really follow. It was clear that Jonny was going to get lynched, and he doesn't really share his opinions, he OMGUS vs suki and then his thread presence during the lynch was non-existent. There was no thoughts on the lynch DURING the lynch which I find really surprising for jay. He kind of accepted it and stuck on a useless suki vote, didn't try to push it on anybody else etc etc. He wasn't doing anything even though he should have been doing something, as though it was a lost cause. I really do feel like we have a scum within suki/jay though, so if we lynch within them we have 50% chance on either. Whereas out of the jonny voters I think we are getting more to a 25% chance or so to hit the scum. Although if I'm wrong about this. There's actually 2 scum in the jonny vote and therefore we have closer to a 50% chance of hitting scum in there. I can't decide whether I'd like to lynch within the jonny voters or within jay/suki. | ||
Balla24
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Balla24
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As I keep saying, there is at most 1 scum in the suki/jaybrundage pair. There could be 0. There is without a doubt 1 scum in the jonnylaw lynch from day1. That's where we should lynch today. They need to be pressured as they have mostly just slid by without doing anything at all. On the other hand, the suki/jaybrundage pair has been pushed to all hell. One thing we do know 100% is that at least 1 of Suki & Jaybrundage are town. From everyone, I want to know which one of them is most likelier to be town with good reasoning. This is especially important for Coag/Hopeless/Oats and the rest of the crew who had very weak/non-existant reasoning for voting Jonnylaw. Why? These relationships will be important later on to determine who the scum is out of not only them, but also out of suki/jaybrundage. After that, we should move into determining which one of them is the scum and moving on with the day. It is very important that you guys share your opinions on which one of Suki & Jay is town. If you think they are both town, that's fine too, share your reasoning One of the things that is interesting is that Coag said "town is in a great place and the atmosphere is good, its likely that the mafia is lurking" (paraphrased). This is actually a really good point. Some people's activity during this night was actually really bad or different, these people are: Aquanim, Oats, Coag, Sidesprang, Lonemeow What's with the change of activity on night 1? There was plenty to talk about. Town After all I wrote about Suki last night, I feel she is actually town. Gonna go with Occam's razor for now. Like I said, beyond the things that feel "off" about her that I talked about, she's playing super pro-town. There's nothing in her filter that's scummy. There's no contradictions, there's no misrepresentations, her cases are not fake. It's really really good. We'll see if this continues or not. It will be hard for her to continue this without playing against her team's best interests. I also feel jaybrundage is town. While his progression on Jonny is kinda weird, it also kind of makes sense i guess, and he seems to be able to explain it with some good clarity On February 10 2014 05:05 jaybrundage wrote: In response to + Show Spoiler + On February 10 2014 03:17 Balla24 wrote: There's a big problem here in that out of Jaybrundage/Suki, both had very similar non logical progressions on Jonny. Both wanted to see "more" from him, both saw him as scummy later in the day but didn't switch to him. I feel that Suki's progression makes more sense. She was pushing jaybrundage hard because she thought he was scum. Jay's doesn't really follow. It was clear that Jonny was going to get lynched, and he doesn't really share his opinions, he OMGUS vs suki and then his thread presence during the lynch was non-existent. There was no thoughts on the lynch DURING the lynch which I find really surprising for jay. He kind of accepted it and stuck on a useless suki vote, didn't try to push it on anybody else etc etc. He wasn't doing anything even though he should have been doing something, as though it was a lost cause. I really do feel like we have a scum within suki/jay though, so if we lynch within them we have 50% chance on either. Whereas out of the jonny voters I think we are getting more to a 25% chance or so to hit the scum. Although if I'm wrong about this. There's actually 2 scum in the jonny vote and therefore we have closer to a 50% chance of hitting scum in there. I can't decide whether I'd like to lynch within the jonny voters or within jay/suki. Yea I was a bit of a mess later on in day 1. I didn't feel convicted with jonny being scum. I had an early town read on him. I thought you and Koshi were scum and when jonny was agreeing with my thinking it made me think he was town. I was using the heuristic that people who think similarly to me were more likely to be the same alignment as me. However I was wrong with ya'll being scum and similarly with Jonny being town. So yea my reads were all pretty bad early day 1. I began to see jonny as nuller as the day went on. But I never felt that he was sure scum or anything. Then when I got too the thread in the near end of the day. I felt scared to contribute as I didn't want to attract unwanted attention by saying the wrong thing and getting mislynched. I had had a pretty shitty day 1 so I was being pretty cautious. This is a bit of a scummy mind set but I didn't really have much conviction on jonny. I was still pretty null on him. I felt going to the thread and waffling would look bad. So in the end when I commented I didn't mention him at all. As I had nothing of use to add. Instead I commented on other people of interest. I could of moved my vote to jonny. But it felt like it was an empty action. What would be the point of it. He was getting lynched and I had nothing to add or much of opinion that was worth voicing. Alot of this hesitancy stemmed from my bad day 1 and at that point in the game. I was fine with my strong town reads: Balla, Aqua having the reins to the lynch wagon. My biggest concern after my botched start was not to get mislynched tho as opposed to trying to lead a lynch. I tried with who I thought was scum at the beginning. But after that went badly I just wanted to make sure town didn't get a mislynch on me. So that should explain my end of the day play I believe. If you have any questions feel free to ask. I might not be back respond till after the night is over tho. Even though it's after the fact, so it's hard to tell whether it's genuine or not. Also the more and more I look at the Jonny lynch, the more and more I see the fact that it looks so incredibly dire that it's pretty ballsy to not buss Jonny in this situation. Mafia Oatsmaster's progression on Jonny is like 100% times worse then either of jay or suki. Somebody already pointed this out but, he was townie on jonny then suddenly he has these 3 posts: On February 08 2014 11:14 Oatsmaster wrote: Hmm johnny says he is gonna post a case on balla. I wanna see how that goea but currently I could lynch Hes like really angry. Angry people are scummy people On February 08 2014 22:58 Oatsmaster wrote: ##unvote bleh. sheep time ##vote johnny On February 08 2014 23:43 Oatsmaster wrote: i havent read the hopeless read on me shit. Im like 70-80% sure johnny has red blood How do you go from, he's probably town to he's scum like that just because he's mad. Suki actually pointed out that he said "angry people are scummy people" even though some of the cases on him were that he's NOT angry and that angry jonny = townie jonny but that wasn't happening. It's just such a weak reasoning. Then 70-80% is pretty high but I guess that's arbitrary, It's pretty weird for someone to go mehprobablytownie to PROBABLY SCUM. I'd expect more something like mehprobablytownie to mehprobablyscum. Everybody else still is the same and I haven't found anything that would change my opinion on them. There is still Aquanim though, who even though I had him on my town list, there's something about him that is rubbing me the wrong way that I can't quite put my finger on. For now he's town still but I want to keep an eye on him. | ||
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On February 10 2014 06:40 Hopeless1der wrote: Balla why is it more likely that me or oats is scum? Did you see Marv's godly bus on sandroba that was basically the point at which town lost the original game? "Oh scum wouldn't bus like that". Don't pull that shit. Koshi is town because jonny slipped. You're probably town because I like ya. I'm town because my pm told me so. In my eyes everyone else is a target. First off: the two situations are completely different. Marv swung from a townie/townie lynch situation to a lurking mafia because he saw correctly that the town sentiment was swinging in their favor. It was a last minute switch, split-second decision for marv. It 100% looked like it was lynch pushed by town. Completely different situation. What was it... 5/6 people on sandroba? Here it was 8 people on jonnylaw. Here jonny was #1 lynch target ALL DAY LONG. Secondly: I said it's far more likely for mafia TO bus. Therefore, it makes less sense for suki and jay to be mafia. Don't mis-understand me here. I'm not counting them out like the town in the first game did the people on the Sandroba lynch. I'm just looking at the situation and trying to figure out what happened. This was a really weird thing to misread and then say. | ||
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On February 10 2014 06:54 Hopeless1der wrote: You said A) only 1 of jayb and suki is scum. (They can absolutely both be scum so you're wrong on this one) B) oats/me/coag must be scum because our reasons for voting jonny were shit and uninspired. I'll eat my hat sir. If suki and jayb are scum together then LOL. I think it's impossible. So i'll leave it at that. | ||
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On February 10 2014 07:12 Hopeless1der wrote: More likely them than me/oats/coag. Coag is full null so the hat eating does not count for him. Oats can be included though. Why is jayb not town to you? Why is suki/jayb both being scum still possible to you, where for everybody else it's not? Why do you tell me that it's likely that scum bussed based on last game but then you say On February 10 2014 07:12 Hopeless1der wrote: More likely them than me/oats/coag. Coag is full null so the hat eating does not count for him. Oats can be included though. which means that you think mafia did NOT bus if you think suki/jayb are more likely mafia? | ||
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On February 10 2014 08:00 Aquanim wrote: Fair point. I haven't decided who I want to lynch today. If it ends up being Oats we'll revisit this. No it's not a fair point. I thought you and I were on the same wavelength here but apparently not lol. If another player thinks your town read of someone is not solid then you need to explain that town read. Having a town read that you can not convince others of being solid is scummy. Even if they might disagree on the reasoning, but as long as it is solid then that's where the conversation can end. Aquanim thinks your town read of Oats is no good, therefore you might be scummy for that, especially if you cant more in-depthly explain. | ||
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On February 10 2014 10:49 Aquanim wrote: I reckon they both are town. I'm not completely positive on either of them, though. Reasoning please. Oats, same question to you. | ||
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On February 10 2014 10:57 Oatsmaster wrote: jay town suki scum. They both arent scum. Jay town because I feel like he wouldnt really have such a long explanation for being afk. suki scum for pushing jay when she got no support the whole day. Uhh, you mean this post? On February 09 2014 08:57 jaybrundage wrote: @Balla the lynch was decided when I came back in the thread. I said I was ok with a jonny lynch as I have been using process of elimination recently. I could of moved my vote with 30 mins left in the day but why? The lynch was decided my vote was useless whether I would of changed to Jonny or not. I would of consolidated on Jonny if you guys needed as I think you and Agua are both town reads for me and I was fine with a jonny lynch. But the way it was I didn't see any reason to change my vote. That's your reason for thinking jay is town? A single pretty boring post? There was so much more than that for him that day and that's the only thing? | ||
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On February 10 2014 11:11 Oatsmaster wrote: Does it matter what thing I use?? Yes it matters what thing you use, because that is a pretty bad reason for a town read. You really think one post makes someone town? A single post will never ever ever convince me that someone is town. Especially not this one. It's the most generic explanation i've ever heard in my life: 1. Why does that post make him town? 2. What else is there to this read? | ||
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On February 10 2014 11:20 Oatsmaster wrote: So whats the point of this exactly? Bad reasoning for any reads = scummy. This is very scummy. | ||
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Why would you say you think its a town post if you can't even explain it? If you can explain it, fricking explain it! | ||
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On February 10 2014 10:57 Oatsmaster wrote: Jay town because I feel like he wouldnt really have such a long explanation for being afk. Does not = town. How does that mean he's town? Because he typed a paragraph? Seriously? | ||
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Can you comment on the other things he's done and why that makes him town? Or why anything scummy he has done is cancelled out by a single post explaining an afk? | ||
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On February 07 2014 11:39 Oatsmaster wrote: Jay is scummy scum scum. Although he seems to really believe in this. The thing with his case on Koshi is that you cant make the case 3 hours into day 1. It doesnt work, not enough evidence. But is it too bad to be scum? Still making up my mind on that. Wafflingggg On February 07 2014 11:40 Oatsmaster wrote: BUT HE WROTE IT PREGAME. LIKE YOU DONT TALK ABOUT PREGAME DURING THE GAME DO YOU? ##vote Jay On February 07 2014 12:53 Oatsmaster wrote: Jay are you gonna do something else day 1? I think we've heard enough about your case, dunno why Balla asks us to stop then he continues pressuring you. On February 07 2014 14:17 Oatsmaster wrote: so then this was a lie? So basically you think JayB is scum because he made a case longer than 2 sentences. Why is it more scummy if someone tunnels early? Didnt I tunnel early against koshi off pretty much nothing and I was town? You are doing the exact same thing as last game. I guess either you didnt learn anything or you are scum trying to play to your previous town meta. What about JayB's scumhunting was forced and contrived? The only defense of Jay I see is a chainsaw defense of him by attacking suki. On February 10 2014 11:33 Oatsmaster wrote: I dunno man, I really dont feel like putting in the effort to do something that doesnt lead to us lynching scum. How do you not get this? You're being scummy, I would lynch you over this. If you aren't helping me to understand why you give jay a free pass then you are NOT leading us to lynching scum if you are town. Because I would lynch you, and you would be town and you did nothing to make me think you were not scum. | ||
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Don't get me wrong here, I don't agree with your town read at all. I think jay is town, but your reasoning is non-existent to me. Seriously. What do you make of his vote at the deadline? What do you make of his reaction early? What do you make of his interactions with jonny? There's so much that you seem to just be ignoring because he had a decent post explaining an afk? What is that? | ||
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On February 10 2014 11:48 Oatsmaster wrote: you agree with my townread = you think jay is town too. Also this shit is so easy to fake. If Im scum right? So I know jay is town, so I can make up so much shit. If it's fake it's still something you have to take responsibility for. If a scum makes a town read up then they have to defend that and explain their reasoning, then they have to stand by it or explain reasoning for not standing by it. | ||
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##vote Oatsmaster + Show Spoiler + Yes I am acting purely out of anger, so infuriating that someone is just not going to put any effort into explaining what he's thinking. We'll see what I think when I come back. | ||
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On February 10 2014 12:03 Oatsmaster wrote: So you are aware you are tilted but still think that im scum? Look at my scumreads then, if you are so infuriated that Im not gonna copy paste your reasoning on why jay is town. Me tilting has nothing to do with whether you are actually scummy or not and everything to do with the fact that you were just straight up annoying me. Now (and this is for my own statisfaction and lulz), now that TL Mafia LXIV: The Restart has ended, I have the ability to use complete information about Oats. That makes 3 town games in a row and puts him right up there with Aquanim, Jonnylaw and Alakaslam as likely mafia. (I just think it will be really funny if I nail 2 mafia with this). Actually I think I might have messed this up in the first place and it should have been up there already. I used PYP even though he had rolled in shadowed, LXIV #1 and smb. I don't want to hard push Oats yet, but there is a case to be had in the near future, I want to see other people stuff first. Like hopeless' promised answers to my question, and stuff from coag and sidesprang. | ||
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On February 10 2014 12:43 Oatsmaster wrote: Johnny law is likely mafia? wow. Also aqua? wow. I'm referring to my first post of the game, silly ^_^ | ||
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On February 10 2014 12:53 Hopeless1der wrote: 1) jayb still has horrific cases on koshi in his filter and an overall uninspired day1. Just because Jonny did it too doesn't make jayb less scummy-looking. It does have the unfortunate side-effect of making it seem improbable that jayb will actually flip scum but I'll be damned if I say he looks like sunshine and rainbows. 2) Because everybody else consists of a herd of moo cows 3) My point is that ANYONE who voted Jonny is possible scum since an outspoken push on getting Jonny lynched could have been made with full knowledge of his alignment. The fact that I think jayb/suki are scummier than the group of me/oats/coag does not infer that jayb/suki are scummier than aqua/lonemeow/sidesprang/you (although you do look town king balla, so you've got that going for you) Ok for point 3 I think you just mis-read what I said then, cause I just never said that I don't think mafia bussed, and I wasn't assuming anything like "mafia wouldn't bus, or mafia would bus" I was just looking at likely situations. On February 10 2014 10:57 Oatsmaster wrote: jay town suki scum. They both arent scum. Jay town because I feel like he wouldnt really have such a long explanation for being afk. suki scum for pushing jay when she got no support the whole day. Oats who besides suki do you have as scum? | ||
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##unvote ##vote sidesprang | ||
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On February 12 2014 02:42 Hopeless1der wrote: This should apply to blue/setup hunting too... was a mistake ya dolt! There was good reason for asking until I realized not everyone gets a notification like I was expecting. | ||
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Starting with coagulation: There are simply put, only 3 reasons to be lynching Coag here: 1. Slam looked scummy. 2. He's didn't post any reasoning on JonnyLaw even when asked. 3. You don't like how coag plays. The only people who have posted meta about Coag have all been defending him. I will do more of that here with no real analysis cause the difference in Coag's town play vs mafia play is pretty pronounced at least when I read it. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=439578&user=Coagulation - Town http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=436388&user=Coagulation - Town http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=440856&user=Coagulation - Mafia http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=436086&user=Coagulation - Mafia In his mafia games he barely talks about the game and just posts random stuff. His town games he posts stuff that talk about people's alignments, he gives some reasoning for stuff. He's doing that here. Oats is right I think. Now sidesprang: His main contribution for n1/d2 has been how people how people interacted with Jonny. One of his major lynch points for Coag and Oats (the two people he has voted for today) has been that they had no reasoning for voting jonny: On February 10 2014 19:13 sidesprang wrote: I put Oats over Coag because I think its more likely that he will flip scum. Both Coag and Slam have a pretty unreadable play for me atleast. The only really scummy point is that Slam did not talk about Jonny at all even tho he was one of the two leading scum lynches when he entered the thread. But hey neither did Oats or Hopeless, they just did a cheap vote on him. Of course it dont make you scum, but it's clear scumpoints in my book atleast. I totally would not mind a Coag lynch either, because I think he will be an issue for the rest of the game. Untill he is dead we will always wonder, he wont do shit to clear himself. But he will do this as either allignment which is why I prefer to lynch oats. Just check Titanic II, there he gets replaced in, does jack shit, gets modkilled (from getting tl.net ban). However if you look at his reasoning, it's pretty freaking weak too. It's basically just a sheep of me/Aqua. He didn't really mention Jonny at all beforehand and it seems his thought process was actually similar to all 3 of them yet he's trying to call them out on it. Another thing I don't like, that I believe LoneMeow has said as well: On February 11 2014 17:18 sidesprang wrote: 1. Alakaslam did not look good. 2. Coag will be disruptive to the town for the rest of the game, just see page 63 3. Coag will be unreadable and dangerous as either alignment for town in LYLO. I don't plan to get to LYLO at all. It's really a cop-out reasoning for trying to kill lynchbait and actually a weird thing to say. Have you ever seen Coag play in LYLO? Also on #1: On February 09 2014 02:41 sidesprang wrote: Alakaslam: I buy that he has been busy with work and whatnot. As I don't think scum!slam would lurk in any way I dont see a reason for lying about it. That being said I dont think his enterance is very good. Starts by complaining about how Balla / Suki trolled early game, which has been pointed out is something he is very capable aswell. And it was obviously something that was prewritten before Balla got the roles. Why bring that shit up again, its a null tell. His points are just fluff. He then says he is going to try some filters, but looks like he only read JayB, maybe the easiest one to pick on at the time. @Slam Did you read up on the rest of the players? Do you got any other reads? What are your thoughts on Jonny? You defended Alakaslam here a bit, and then took a null stance on the rest. This doesn't look like you thought he looked bad. Also, why aren't you pushing for Suki at all, you've been calling her scummy all night and day yet now when lynch time comes you're gone onto Oats and Coag where you even put Suki in the middle of them. Anyways. This day still sucks | ||
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On February 12 2014 05:32 LoneMeow wrote: Balla24, how does sidesprang's D1 posting fit with the idea that he's scum? There's nothing super convincing in your case, I'm not sold yet. His day1 is so null. In every way. Null in the fact that reading it doesn't give me a read one way or another. Null in the sense that all his reads were basically null except for town reads and eventually Jonny. If you look at it, you basically have no idea who he thinks is scum until he votes Jonny because whenever he calls someone scummy he's like "but then there's this that looks good and this -> so I don't know what to think". The fact that he can't stay consistent in day2 from his day1 is bad. That's the important part. Trying to lynch Coag for slam being scummy even though he never called Slam scum is pretty bad. | ||
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On February 12 2014 02:52 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Votecount: Coagulation ( 5 ) : LoneMeow, jaybrundage, Hopeless1der, sidesprang, Aquanim, Sidesprang ( 4 ) : Oatsmaster, Coagulation, suki, Balla24, Oatsmaster ( 0 ) : 0 people who haven't voted yet With 5 votes Coagulation is set to be lynched Deadline on Tuesday, Feb 11 9:59pm GMT (GMT+00:00) if you happen to find any mistakes in the above, please inform us/me about it immediatly, thanks. Coagulation is the townie obviously, sidesprang is the mafia. In this situation I think it's pretty crazy to bus, and actually, you're right I don't want to write off LoneMeow because maybe he saw thread sentiment shifting, but for Oatsmaster and Suki I would totally write them off. There's no way they buss halfway through day1 when nobody is really pushing their teammate. That leaves LoneMeow, Aquanim, Jaybrundage and Hopeless. Aquanim did some pretty pretty pretty serious defending of sidesprang early in that day. So that's my prime suspect for tomorrow. | ||
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On February 12 2014 07:14 Aquanim wrote: The reason I say it's conceivable that Balla's vote for Jonny was a bus (link) was that he left himself an out - he could have stopped voting Jonny plausibly after posting that, if Jonny had come and contributed more. I think it's highly unlikely - but more likely than Oats or Suki going all-in on Sidesprang like they did. I like that you're saying this stuff about me but you bussing Jonny is much much more conceivable. You defended him against my early case, then after my second large post about him you finally make your case. | ||
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On February 12 2014 09:30 suki wrote: I think this actually gives us a roadmap to the finish. I doubt Hopeless is scum because Sidesprang was trying to create suspicion against Hopeless. I also doubt LoneMeow is scum because both Jonny and Sidesprang have stated their suspicions on LoneMeow. No comment on his statements to me, you guys can figure that out for yourself. I did not come to the same conclusion about LoneMeow when reading Sidesprangs filter. Sidesprang mentioned him like... 2 or 3 times total. | ||
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On February 12 2014 10:11 Oatsmaster wrote: YESSSSSS WHEEEE YAY!!. Thanks Balla. I would say hopeless looks the worse from that, he played with Coag enough to know how he plays. Aqua felt really genuinely trying to understand why sidesprang was scum but his vote was not needed and felt like he just said stuff to avoid sheeping. I dunno, but dont lynch till like day 4-5 if he stops playing. I agree with this about Aqua. I don't have that knowledge about hopeless so I'll take your word for it. I'll post the usual analysis by the King tomorrow, for now I am le tired. | ||
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On February 13 2014 02:52 Hopeless1der wrote: Suki Day1 case is in my filter. Day2 she pushed coag all day and then meekly said Her filter is about 2/3 Day/Night 1 and 1/3 Day/Night 2 (I know Night2 isnt over yet, but the disparity is there) Based on general activity and the sudden and unexpected switch to sprang she's definitely my top choice for scum. Suki was once again seen defending the scum-lynch by saying they are contributing and deserve another day to prove themselves You think she didn't mean for sidesprang to get lynched but put her vote there because she was confident that coag was going to get lynched without her? It's possible but seems pretty ballsy. That's the only way I see suki being scum. | ||
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That's evening out the playing fields pretty bad, if I was scum in her position there's NO WAY i'm taking that risk, and I really don't think suki would take that risk either. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler [Sidesprang interactions] + Jay -> Sidesprang interactions ------------------------------------------------------------ -asks koshi about Suki/Sidesprang -null on sidesprang -asks oats about sidesprang -asks aquanim about sidesprang -asks LM about sidesprang -says he will policy lynch him and there's actually a decent chance he's scum (no case) -says he never intended to follow up with the policy lynch and just wanted to pressure him since he "doesn't have enough content in the thread" Sidesprang -> Jay interactions ------------------------------------------------------------ - weird Q -> jay about me and Koshi - says he was an easy townread last game but not getting the same feel - chainsaw defense of jayB/suki vs Oats... - "i'll give jayB a pass for now since he claimed blue" - another chainsaw defense of jayB vs alakaslam and then suki - asks Jay where the pressure is after jay threatens to policy him... - calls oats scummy for townreading jay (sheep of me) - calls suki scummy for dropping her jayB push - calls jayB town along with me and aqua for "blueclaim and N1 play..." wat Vote comparison ------------------------------------------------------------ Jay: D1 Balla -> Koshi -> Slam -> Suki D2 Sidesprang -> Coag -> Sidesprang SS: D1 Jonnylaw D2 Coagulation LM -> Sidesprang interactions ------------------------------------------------------------ - Asks Koshi about his conclusion about sidesprang - Chainsaw defense of sidesprang by attacking oats - Null on sidesprang in response to JB - if coag is town, sidesprang might be mafia, he thought he looked towny but now he's far less sure - asks suki about sidesprang's meta and thinks it looks similar to "titanic 2" where he was town cop - asks sidesprang to elaborate on everyone else - asks sidesprang to explain why JB is town. - asks me if sidesprangs D1 posting = scum and says my case is not super convincing, then when I explain he agrees and votes and says "he wishes he was more confident in this lynch" SS -> LM interactions ------------------------------------------------------------ - Says he will look into LM same time he gives jayB a free pass - needs to look at LM because he had a HUGE afk - doesn't see anything scummy but nothing townie either.. not worht looking at this late in the cycle? suddenly after saying he needs to look into him - null on lonemeow end of d2 Vote comparison ------------------------------------------------------------ LM: D1 Jonnylaw D2 Coagulation -> Sidesprang SS: D1 Jonnylaw D2 Coagulation Hopeless -> Sidesprang Interactions ------------------------------------------------------------ - explains why he had a townread on oats to sidesprang - chainsaw defense of sidesprang by attacking suki's meta analysis - calls sidesprang out for false facts and crushes his jayB town reasoning SS -> Hopeless interactions ------------------------------------------------------------ - Doesn't mind hopeless so far and says he made good points against jayb - nothing towny or scummy in his filter, doesn't like how he gives oats a townread - says hopeless didn't really mention jonny and because of that he might be scum - asks oats why is hopeless town and thinks its scummy for him to be townreading him - says hopeless is leaning scum after oats/suki/coag - says again that hope did a cheap vote on jonny - calls oats out for giving hopeless town cred just cause he voted with no reasoning on jonny - suddenly says he's null on hopeless because of big ass suki post (even though that was before he called hopeless slightly scummy) Vote comparison ------------------------------------------------------------ Hope: D1 Jaybrundage -> Jonnylaw D2 Coag SS: D1 Jonnylaw D2 Coag The most inconsistent thing I find out of these three is sidesprang's opinion of jay. Beyond that, I find hopeless' opinion of sidesprang pretty non-existent. He's been attacking suki's meta case of sidesprang but not really saying what he thinks about sidesprang. LoneMeow consistently looks like he's trying to find out sidesprang's alignment, whereas the other two don't. I think the last scum is between those two (jayB and hopeless) for now. Let's first look at what I'm talking about in regards to sidesprang's inconsitent opinion of jay. On February 10 2014 17:17 sidesprang wrote: I would prefer to lynch Oats, reasons being. He hardly mentioned jonny, had no reasons for voting him. Has two suspect townreads (hopeless / JayB). He is also not being very helpfull to town. People who is leaning scum to me is Oats, You, Coag, Hopeless. Pretty much in that order I think. Koshi and Balla lead the lynch, they were too me the two guys looking most towny. Koshi prolly died because of it. 3 guys have votes that they pretty much did not explain. You had Jonny as second lynch (I think), but for some reason was very reluctant to get JayB lynched instead. I feel usualy town when having two scumreads are happy lynching either atleast when its such a landslide in votes. The fact that you are no dropping him completly for the day while having gone that hard for him I don't understand. Anyhow, off too school. I'll check in when I got time. Here he says that Oats has a suspect townread of jayB (which was basically a sheep of me), doesn't explain why. He also says suki dropping him completely is confusing. Later on he says: On February 11 2014 15:11 sidesprang wrote: I guess it dont hurt to mention the rest of the reads as I think most of the players are on the same page. I'm town on Balla Aqua JayB JayB is town because his blueclaim and his N1 play. This is his ONLY reasoning for thinking jay is town, this is very alarming for jay because sidesprang has been acting like oats and suki are wrong for town-reading jay, but then he puts him up there with me and Aqua (who have consistently been put at the top of most others townreads). Sorry guys I actually can't be bothered to continue this analysis atm lol.... i have more kingly matters to attend to. Jay's probably scum. Better explain that blue shit tonight~~ I'll try to continue this during the resolution period. | ||
Balla24
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There were 2 plausible options that I had his blue claim under: 1. He was mafia and trying to gain cred in case he needed to claim a role when about to get lynched (to draw out the real blue role). 2. He was vanilla town and just fake claimed blue to draw a shot or an RB. There's no way he is actually blue, as as a real blue you would be WAY more careful with how you do that & you would have claimed during resolution period today to get you out of the running for tomorrow. Depending on his explanation, if he is not dead tomorrow or RB'ed then just lynch him. Personally as mafia I would have killed or RBed him D1, as he did a decent job selling the followup by not commenting on it and I wouldn't want to take the risk of it. Anyways, my 2cents about it. | ||
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On February 13 2014 06:58 Aquanim wrote: I don't intend to lynch Jay without thinking about it, but this claim of his is looking sketchier and sketchier. Yep. I didn't mean it to be the be all end all, but definitely something about, and I had to post now so it was kinda rushed. | ||
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dont you know magic is forbidden in this kingdom? you will hang! | ||
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JUST SAYING, MY 1st POST HAD 2/3 SCUM LOLOLOLOL. such shit post huh LOL cant believe it actually was correct... will have to try again sometime... | ||
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Artanis thanks for hosting. This game was super fun and I learned a lot. Toad thanks for being a beast vote count poster :D | ||
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On February 18 2014 07:06 Promethelax wrote: Agreed with this. And if all the lynches are terrible lynches that should be shooting off red flags everywhere... i fucked up pretty hard with my n2 play though as wellNo, there were a few bad lynches and one terrible lynch. The most active town player is a terrible lynch. | ||
Balla24
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Post-death game analysis by me: So I think my d1 was really really good. I felt confident throughout the entire thing, pressured a mafia right off the bat and actually forced him to crumble (me along with koshi and aquanim). The opening was really good and fun, and it's possible it actually caught 2/3 mafia so who knows how credible that kind of thing actually is, I was expecting 0/3. But most importantly I had a lot of fun on d1. I don't think I would do anything differently, except maybe explain why I was hoping on the "wagon of justice" on suki a bit earlier and not trusting oats to follow through with the pressure. My n1 felt ok, I still don't know what I could have done better in regards to jay's blue claim, I kind of just ignored it after we discussed it a bit. I didn't really pressure anyone hard here and I think my play started dropping off on that end. My reads were still good, but my questioning and pressuring dropped off pretty hard. I think had I been killed here instead of Koshi, I would have left town in a good position with what I wrote on n1 and I think that's probably the most important part. Maybe I should have let the night kill discussion go on a bit more and let things develop as they would. Starting with d2 I got demotivated, dealing with oats tilted me and i'm not sure it should have. I was able to come back with a clear head and lynch mafia which is good, but I was pretty absent on d2. No pressure, no questioning, just a case in the end based on what the rest of the town did. I was able to secure the lynch on mafia. However I'm not sure we got the best information out of this day and that'll lead into my n2 play. N2 I think I was too quick to clear people based on the d2 votes. My n1 vote analysis was much better than what I did on n2. I was too quick to assume that mafia wouldn't buss and I was too quick to assume that there's no way we were on 2 mafia in that situation. In the future I should go into the analysis with the mindset that anything is possible and end up writing things about each scenario and where each lynch candidate could be either alignment: I should have done the analysis like: - Scenario 1: Coag is town, Sidesprang is flipped mafia relevant analysis -Scenario 2: Coag is mafia, Sidesprang is flipped mafia relevant analysis That would have helped to show that while scenario 2 is unlikely, it is still very much possible. I did this in my d1 vote analysis so I don't know why I didn't do it on d2, I guess its cause I townread coag so hard. Beyond that, I already felt kind of burnt out of the game, so I don't think I gave my best analysis and best pre-death send off that I could have, and I think I botched the vote analysis so I don't think I left town in a good position. Especially in regards to jay's blue claim, again, I should have just left that alone I think. All in all though I think I played a great game, 2/2 mafia lynches is already something to be happy about. Just sad I didn't get to get the 3rd one myself ^_^ | ||
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If only we didn't rule out the possibility that we had BOTH scum on d2. It would have been the PERFECT game. | ||
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On February 18 2014 09:28 Toadesstern wrote: on the left and right: Everyone who isn't Prome or Gonzaw in the middle: Gonzaw and Prome Everyone has something with like 40 posts in their QT, maybe a little less (Sandro) or a tiny bit more (BH) but suddenly Gonzaw and Prome have 200+ posts hey foolishness and I talked a lot it just doesnt show in QT post # ^_^ | ||
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On February 18 2014 12:24 jaybrundage wrote: Suki lets talk about your tunnel. What convinced you I was scum so much. Like from your first day I thought you looked reallly scummy. Like you actively trying to discredit me and throwing things that weren't even true. Like that sheep post about Jonny really made me suspicious of you. I think this explains it: "Ah. My notes from my previous game say: "If I roll town, be more decisive. Push harder. Try not to be so wishy washy and careless." What that translates to for me is I will be tunneling people and really trying to push their buttons, even if my case isn't the best. In my previous game I also played a bit too careless because I wasn't worried about getting killed (since I was just a VT). I need to tighten up my game a bit more. " -suki | ||
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On February 18 2014 12:45 gonzaw wrote: lol Did you really spend all the time since the game ended until now reading my qt? I feel bad for you guys now lol ROFL no. I read all the short ones... made PORKCHOPS (actually just steak) and watched a few shows and NOW im reading the long ones :D | ||
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On February 18 2014 12:42 jaybrundage wrote: there is some amazing stuff in here PromethelaxPerson was signed in when posted 02-14-2014 03:07 AM ET (US) I am your personal cheerleader. Suki suki she's our (wo)man If she can't do it no one can Woooo Wooo [i did not sport well in school, I have no idea what cheerleaders actually say] Hehe I love that he posted what I was saying in the obs thread to suki during that time | ||
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On top of that you never really tried to see what it would be like from his perspective. Koshi and I both jumped on him over VERY little to garner a reaction, and koshi antagonized him A LOT. There was some serious emotional reactions within that time. Beyond that, I thought your push on him was good. It sure pressured him a lot. You clearly thought he was scum. It was good. Dunno why people gave you so much shit for it haha. | ||
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Jay wasn't helping his case. Honestly if I didn't have such a strong scumread on jonny I felt like hopping on at some points. The meta case was convincing etc and he was making me mad but jonny was pretty obv scum to me and there were even more scummy people above him like alakaslam. | ||
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On February 18 2014 13:05 suki wrote: Yeah see I don't care about people's defenses. I think scum can easily WIFOM their way out of bad situations. I was looking at jay's contributions to the thread and his attitude more than anything else. This is really untrue for you actually and really only true for this situation. Look at NMM1 and the last iteration of this. You DID care about people's defenses. Hell you jumped around like a crazy person. The difference here is jay never really DEFENDED himself against you, and never really provided a good scum read of his own for you to reason with. | ||
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i'd see you pressuring me and be like NAHHHHHHHHH | ||
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On February 18 2014 13:12 suki wrote: Would you be like NAHHHHHH I'm going to OMGUS that person and not provide any more reads and pretty much look like I don't care about the game? that's the attitude I felt. I mean... that was his attitude ^_^ so yeah its totally possible townies would do that. It might not be optimal but sometimes you can't put your heart into the game. Just look at your d3 here, we could all tell at some points you felt demotivated, it just happens, you were able to get right back into it but not everybody can right away. The optimal thing would obviously be for him to refute your points and provide his real scumread. But if the game could be broken down that way it wouldn't be fun. Mafia is fluid, emotions and opinions of people change things ALL the time. Anyways.. I would for sure like to hear what jay has to say about what he was up to during day 1. | ||
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On February 18 2014 13:17 suki wrote: Furthermore, his reason for not posting for the rest of day one 'Because I was scared of drawing attention to myself and being mislynched' ... I mean that explains it right? His attitude was one of survival and defense rather than scum hunting, which was pretty much the whole reason I was on his case to begin with. His survival attitude ended up not being because he was scum but it's something that I do find very scummy. I think thats scummy too BUT I think its totally consistent with what a townie would do if he was in jay's position. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + On February 07 2014 12:36 Balla24 wrote: The post you were quoting where I replied to you. It was about how you had the impression that I was calling your push on Koshi scummy. I just want to know if we're clear now and on the same page. I don't know what you're talking about in regards to responding to koshi's vote vote though haha. I don't care that you didn't reply to his vote post where he called you awkward or whatever. There was no reason to. | ||
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On February 18 2014 13:23 jaybrundage wrote: You and jonny. This guy wasn't scum. BUT HE SHOULD OF BEEN QQ LMAO. In all fairness I think Jonny's case on you was completely ridiculous last game. Like I can understand feeling weird about how townie you were playing, but pushing it as your day1 lynch seems unreasonable. Actually this game I felt really off about Aquanim the entire time but it ended up never really materializing. | ||
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On February 18 2014 13:24 suki wrote: Could you maybe summarize it to make it easier for me to digest? Yeah. So if you remember the events of the early game in which resulted in a lot of what you found jay scummy for, I early voted jay to see his reaction (cause I thought his post was somewhat scummy), koshi hops on etc etc. In that quote string, jay explains EXACTLY what he was thinking about each little thing. My vote, koshi's vote, koshi's followup etc etc... it's eye opening because I realized he was blowing up specifically because KOSHI was not providing reasoning and being antagonistic. | ||
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- really random opening post that actually pinged 2 mafia - Really stupid king stuff - WAGON OF JUSTICE - jay likening me to being king of rohan with regards to suki ah so good | ||
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For example: While I had a 1.02% chance to roll TMMM, it also follows that I had a 3.03% or something chance to roll TMMT. So its really amazing that I even rolled town OR mafia! I loved skewing that into exactly what I wanted. Which was Jonny being scum as the outcome. It took me awhile to figure out that the best way to make it so that Jonny is scum is to show the chances of rolling mafia rather than show the chances to roll town. While making this, I was really upset that Jonny had something like a 40% chance to roll a TTTT situation, whereas I had 3.03% to roll a TMMT situation so i just flipped it! :D | ||
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