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[S] Shadowed Mini Mafia: The Reboot - Page 7

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
February 09 2014 01:37 GMT
#930
Can you try to explain your Suki feeling? I'm getting the complete opposite feeling. Her interactions with jonny look bad but I think she's playing really well and seriously trying to helping town a LOT.
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
February 09 2014 02:39 GMT
#936
we're not settled on anything. what do you think about the thread?
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
February 09 2014 02:42 GMT
#938
On February 09 2014 11:40 Coagulation wrote:
I think its a pretty pro town atmosphere going on and that usually indicates scum that are lurking.


Interesting, who do you classify in the lurking category then. Which of them do you see being more likely scum?
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
February 09 2014 02:53 GMT
#943
On February 09 2014 11:46 Coagulation wrote:
oats / lonemeow / aqua / sprang
somewhere in there
oats or lonemeow are most likely imo but thats not based on much


Aquanim? Why do you consider aquanim to be a lurker.

If it's not based on much then what is it based on, even if it's not much.

On February 09 2014 11:46 suki wrote:
Just for all you suki haters out there, having a different opinion about people and strongly pushing my scum read and trying to get people to see what I see are all not scummy.

There's no reason to start playing paranoid town lets-lynch-the-most-active-person-in-the-game at this point. Like seriously. I can't believe you guys are even considering this.


Nobody's lynching you, we're discussing you. That should be good right? I mean suki you basically hard defended Jonny by pushing jay so hard over him. That's a hard thing to gulp when jonny flips scum. There's reason for it, you can prove whether or not it's true or not.

But please, we know what you think about jaybrundage. Let's see something about others now. You have to admit it is a pretty hard tunnel, even if he does turn out to be scum, it's anti-town at the very least since it makes it harder to read you since your opinions on others aren't known as much.
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
February 09 2014 02:58 GMT
#948
On February 09 2014 11:54 Coagulation wrote:
its based on the warm and fuzzys I get from having played in over 500 mafia games.


Which you obviously can vocalize from such a great wealth of experience? Maybe? ^_^

On February 09 2014 11:56 suki wrote:
It's not like I just tunneled the hell out of Jay and ignored everyone else and you have nothing in my filter except stuff about Jay.


I know this, I'm not saying you didn't post anything about anything else, but you didn't push anybody else. I don't know who else you think is scum basically.
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
February 09 2014 05:17 GMT
#973
WIFOM at best. Not thinking about it.

I've been wrestling with suki's alignment for the past like 4 hours. I think this is where the term "Svengali" applies or whatever Slam loves to use. She's way too good at manipulating me. She's way too good at scum. There's so much in her filter that is sooooooooo townie, but there's so much that's making me think back to the scum game she had and saying... wow... that's really similar.

I've probably written and erased like 3 of my long posts about her now... maybe I should just post both the town version and the scum version.
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
February 09 2014 05:56 GMT
#976
Heh jay.. this made me smile so much. You'll see why.
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
February 09 2014 05:56 GMT
#977
FUCK I WANTED TO USE MY 1.5k POST ON IT.
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
February 09 2014 06:12 GMT
#982
Alright fuck it, Suki is probably mafia trying to climb in my window: reading music:


Based on my vote analysis earlier, I stated that I think at least 1 mafia is in the Jonnylaw vote because

- I doubt the 2 other mafia would both stay off the vote, when it was looking fucking dire all day for jonny.
- (new point) Suki/Jay cannot be mafia together. There's no way they do that stupid OMGUS crap and suki pushes jay that hard when they are already losing 1 of their teammates.

It is possible that neither of them are mafia and that both mafia are in the vote. I think we can come to this conclusion later. For now, out of the 2: I think it is Suki.

Before we go any further I'd like for you guys to reference these recent games if you'd like to look at her meta:

Newbie Mini Mafia LI - Mafia
Normal Mini Mafia Episode 1 - Town
Shadowed Mini Mafia - Town

In her mafia game. She went HAM on her teammates, bussed them all game. Never followed through and lynched them (she didn't need to). My first thought here is: in this game, she would have followed through on Jonnylaw since it was so dire for him. But no, I've never seen a situation for her where her teammate actually gets lynched, so this is new territory when it comes to meta. I think she's smart enough to know that she would probably get more town cred by NOT pushing jonny, just lightly bussing him and pushing someone else hard.

There's a few general things that are shooting off red flags in her play for me:

- Her care level and activity level have SKYROCKETED since her last 2 games. It's huge. 9 page filter on day 1? That's insane compared to her what 4.5 page per day filter in the other games. As mafia she was fitting the activity level of the game, when Jonny and I were alive in Newbie LI, she was active as hell, as soon as we started dropping off, so did her activity level, since the game started falling off when we died. This game I feel is VERY VERY active, which results in her large filter. Check the previous game to see what i'm saying, it's tiny compared to mine, here she's eclipsing me.

- She is SO MUCH MORE CONFIDENT in her reads and reasoning when she is mafia. She will push and push and push till she gets what she wants. In her town games, she flip flops a lot and swaps votes tons. She reacts to people's defenses and gets swayed. There's none of that here. Here's something interesting that I found:
+ Show Spoiler [Bleeding] +

On January 07 2014 15:42 suki wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 07 2014 15:10 Balla24 wrote:
I can't believe how some of you guys are so confident about how dragoon will flip scum. Suki, Jonny specifically..


I think I was pretty clear in my posts as to why I think Dragoon is scum.

I feel that his defense of Asuna is a major scum slip and the more he tries to justify it the more I believe it.

Dragoon has also not played a pro-town game at all. His only scum reads have been on those who are attacking him, and he hasn't even taken the time to properly form a case. Like, I still don't know why he thinks I'm scummy

Show nested quote +

suki: "Okay then, lets get back to scumhunting :D". A bit too eager to go scumhunting there, don't ya think? Not really a good reason to call him mafia.


I think that's the only reason he's given as to why I'm scum. Here is his defense post on me:

Show nested quote +

@Suki

theDragoon's knee jerk reaction to vote OWB because of an incorrect timeline.
- Attacking his attacker for a slight inconsistency.


I reacted to that inconsistency because he was trying to frame his argument based on the fact that I "changed my mind" about Day_Walker. He said something along the lines of me saying I changed my mind THEN... Day_Walker mentioned something. The only reason why I even mentioned Day_Walker at all is because Balla24 asked me what I thought, then people started putting words in my mouth saying I trusted him.

His flip-flopping on Derrida, first saying his suspicion is 'low' and then on his very next post saying Derrida is higher up.


New information pops up, you reread things you change your opinions. How's that scummy at all?

Suki to me sounds like a scum trying to take advantage of this situation, to get a townie a guaranteed lynch.

there's no way he's not mafia here.


Everyone watch out for Suki, her true nature as a scum will be revealed when I get flipped.



Where is the analysis? He's just blindly attacking me because hey, I straight up said he's the scummiest person in the game. Same with the other people he's called out.

I'd be very surprised if he bleeds green because his play has not been pro-town at all.

On February 08 2014 13:03 suki wrote:
Hmm..

If you are town Jay I deeply apologize. However I think the only thing that will convince me of that is seeing you bleed green.

All my points against you aside, when I ask you for a scum read I expect a scum read. Not some flaky excuse that you don't want to do it.

I don't see any analysis going on here. Just excuses and OMGUS.

This type of confidence and use of the "i want to see your blood" phrase is COMPLETELY absent from her town games.

- She's not being convinced by anything really. Everything she does is based on her reasoning and her logic. This is in complete contrast to her 2 recent town games, where almost every time she attacked somebody, she read their defense (even weak defenses) and would say "ok, that's nice" and switch targets (often time to the target of her target). I honestly would have expected that to happen with Jay here. It didn't.

Let's look at some of the flip flopping she does and some of the confidence she exudes in her mafia play:
+ Show Spoiler [Flip/Flopping town] +

On January 21 2014 09:52 suki wrote:
You know what, I agree with you Barristan.

I think Zarepath's case on VE is just a list of points that tries to squeeze out any sort of scumminess. It's weak, but he sounds like he's trying so hard to make it work. His follow up posts are all trying to keep up the pressure on VE.

Compared to the filter linked by Barristan, Zarepath's tone has changed completely. In his previous game filter he had no problem listing off a bunch of people who he thought were scummy, and doing a bunch of analysis. In this game he's only talked about VE and no one else, and VE is not the only suspicious person in this game.

##unvote
##vote Zarepath

I'm going to lay off VE for a bit. Pressuring him is going nowhere and I think he's defended well.

On January 22 2014 02:21 suki wrote:
Yeah ok.

Show nested quote +
On January 21 2014 06:31 zarepath wrote:
On January 21 2014 06:02 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Nobody is lynching you VE.


Could you care to explain why VE is town despite him obsessing with everyone's opinions of him and blatant sheeping?

I made a whole case about him which everyone has completely ignored in the middle of your penis-measuring contest with Artanis.


Re-reading again, this post reads townie to me. Particularly the part where he points out that his case was ignored, I think for scum it doesn't matter if people listen to their arguments as long as a townie is getting lynched, so pointing out his post reads more town.

Tunneling can be done by town, stretching cases too far is also possible for a really tryhard town.

Zarepath's switch to bum doesn't make sense if both of them are scum. And I agree that bum looks scummy.

##unvote
##vote bumatlarge

On January 22 2014 06:00 suki wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 22 2014 05:52 bumatlarge wrote:
I was giving zarepath a free place to put his vote as long as I was intent on lynching VE. His reaction to my unvote has alot of motivation behind it.

At the time, Crossfire was gaining some traction, for an iffy post. Zare could have hopped on him, which I think is worth noting if one of them flips scum. Kush seems somewhat similar, but that was older votes.

I found his vote on me a bit backwards, considering that it was just for not pushing VE some more. I think it would it would be a poor choice for him to make as mafia. But I don't think he seems like he has a lot of experience as mafia.

The second scenario where I am scum and he is town is much more unlikely, because he has been on par with my thoughts the whole game, and he changes his mind to me when I stop pursuing both of our top scum reads. That is much more illogical coming from a townie, rather then what I think would be bad reasoning for him to do that as mafia.


I actually really really like everything here. Many of these things I didn't consider previously.

One other thing I was eyeing was Crossfire's soft defense of Zarepath earlier in the game. Couple this with Zarepath including Crossfire into his list just now (alongside a really stupid desire to lynch WileE)... I think there's a good chance of them being scumbuddies.

##unvote
##vote Zarepath

On January 22 2014 06:56 suki wrote:
##unvote

Zarepath obviously did not have a fakeclaim, his reaction was genuine.

On February 05 2014 02:24 suki wrote:
So right now Oats is super scummy to me.

His "case" against Koshi is bad, and yet he continues to push it. He's also not consistent with his views:

Show nested quote +
On February 04 2014 15:32 Oatsmaster wrote:
suki nullish, dunno why she is attacking you though, bad reasons but not inherently scummy.

Cakeman also null. Same with johnny. i mean, nobody is really pushing shit and its hard to figure out if they are posting for the sake of it or posting to find scum. Literally throughout the whole 7-8 pages there is no concerted effort to push someone by anyone.

Koshi scum for suggesting a really bad policy about post counts and nothing else. It feels like bait for scum to jump on but there is no followup.


Show nested quote +
On February 05 2014 00:49 Balla24 wrote:
On February 04 2014 15:47 Oatsmaster wrote:
Its so bad, so if its town koshi, I assume he doesnt mean it seriously and has some reason for posting it. But no signs of that so far.


Can you explain a bit more?

1. How does Koshi posting something "bad" make it bait for scum to jump on? Basically: what will scum do with it?
2. Did anybody jump on it?
3. Was this your first thought when you read it?



Show nested quote +
On February 05 2014 00:57 Oatsmaster wrote:
1. Scum will go and shit on Koshi for it because its bad and scummy.
2. yeah suki and some other dudes.
3. My first thought was why is koshi proposing such a useless policy.

mannnn Koshi's shitposting is AFTER his first post.


This is almost a scum claim right here. Oats is doing the exact thing that he says scum would do, and yet he's calling other people out for it.

Who is Oats willing to lynch today?

Show nested quote +
On February 05 2014 01:39 Oatsmaster wrote:
Yeah Im not telling you my conclusions because I want to hear what you think without my conclusions coloring your analysis.
I really null on cake, what he posts when he comes back is really important and will probably decided my read. Hopeless is a useless piece of shit that we should lynch.


(... On a side note, I don't approve of the personal attack calling Hopeless a 'useless piece of shit'.)

Anyways. He suddenly thinks Hopeless is super scummy, without any reasoning. This is after LoneMeow has stated suspicions on Hopeless so it feels like a bandwagon. Hopeless was one of the people who didn't shit on Koshi's policy, and said that the policy makes him feel motivated. So this big scum tell that Oats has been pushing the entire game doesn't apply to his choice of lynches?

He reads cake as null and yet it's cake and hopeless who he wants to discuss. Why not me, who you said was scummy for 'jumping on Koshi's policy' or those 'other dudes' that you so specifically called out?

Why is LoneMeow town even though he was the most vocal about probably not meeting Koshi's 40 post policy?

Hm. Also this exchange just leaves a bad taste in my mouth:
Show nested quote +
On February 04 2014 12:10 Oatsmaster wrote:
Hi guys, [jay] probably town

Show nested quote +
On February 04 2014 12:30 Oatsmaster wrote:
On February 04 2014 12:17 suki wrote:
On February 04 2014 12:15 Oatsmaster wrote:
On February 04 2014 12:13 suki wrote:
And what reasons do you have for saying Jay is town?

he's trying to advance the game to find scum duhhhh.


Sorry I must be a bit slow. Can you provide a few examples where you feel that he is advancing the game to find scum?

asking all those questions


Also, why does Oats avoid Balla's question here? He's not being transparent, and if he thinks Balla is town then why throw the question back at him?

Show nested quote +
On February 05 2014 01:55 Oatsmaster wrote:
On February 05 2014 01:53 Balla24 wrote:
Before I answer that can you answer me this:

Am I leaning town or scum? Same for LM.

I thought you disapproved of the asking questions before giving your own answers?




In summary, Oats is calling people scummy for something that he himself is actively doing. His reads on people seem random, rather than thought out. There's no logical progression on why he thinks Hopeless is super scummy and worth lynching (it feels like bandwagoning to try to push an easy lurker lynch). There's no explanation on why LoneMeow is town to him despite the dissonance with his 'Koshi policy' case.

When asked to explain himself he's extremely reluctant. He tries to deflect attention from himself. This all reads as scum to me.

##vote Oatsmaster

On February 05 2014 14:54 suki wrote:
I think Oatsmaster's defense addresses my case sufficiently, and I like the direction he's taken after defending himself. That is, his tunnel on Hopeless.

I've noted that previously as town he correctly called out hopeless for being scum in TL Mafia XLIII: Time to Die, basically for lurking and not contributing. He is doing the same here in his pressure on Hopeless.

I'm still waiting on Hopeless to contribute something to the thread. Most of his posts are defense posts and fluff, he keeps promising content but hasn't delivered.

##unvote
##vote Hopeless1der


At this point I also would be happy to lynch LoneMeow. He's done absolutely nothing this game. I think sidesprang's contributed more to this game in his one big post than LoneMeow has in his entire filter.

On February 06 2014 01:31 suki wrote:
##unvote
##vote cakemanofdoom

Hopeless is making sense.

cake has been wishy washy all game. He bandwagons onto Hopeless, even though he thinks Koshi is mafia. He's ok with voting LoneMeow because LM is lurking.

Like, he's taking the easy path. I read through his filter and I learn absolutely nothing. Like, it seems like he's contributing but when you really look closely he's not really saying anything that progresses towards a lynch. Even his case against Koshi feels non-enthusiastic.


+ Show Spoiler [Confident Scum Suki] +

On January 07 2014 09:49 suki wrote:
Hey guys, I'm back.

First and foremost I think it's prudent to address the person that strikes me as the number one scum in the game:

theDragoon

Show nested quote +
On January 06 2014 15:49 theDragoon wrote:
On January 06 2014 15:30 JonnyLaw wrote:


Excuses, bandwagoning and self doubt in one line.

I'm down to lynch Asuna or OWB at this point.

Dragoon and Chyz read more as if they're trying but misguided.


That's enough of a reason to lynch Asuna? I don't see that as good enough to suspect Asuna of being mafia, unless you know more than what you've said there. Those 3 things you listed there is just a sign of an inexperienced player, it has nothing to do with being a scum.


Show nested quote +
I said that because his reasoning to lynch Asuna was basically due to Asuna's inexperience, which I think is not a good enough reason to be lynched when there are a lot more suspicious people out there. I don't know if Jonny knows more about Asuna, I only thought that because I was not buying his reason to lynch Asuna.


The more I read these posts the more I dislike them. He's basically stating that he knows Asuna's "excuses, bandwagoning and self doubt" are due to her inexperience, and he's not leaving any room to interpret them as scummy. How would a town Dragoon be so sure? I'm more and more confident that the 'knows more about Asuna' line really is a scum slip.

Other things that scream scum to me:
theDragoon's knee jerk reaction to vote OWB because of an incorrect timeline.
- Attacking his attacker for a slight inconsistency.
His statement that Balla is rising up on his suspicions list with Balla's 'immediate' jump to lynch him.
- More of the same
His flip-flopping on Derrida, first saying his suspicion is 'low' and then on his very next post saying Derrida is higher up.
- Scummy enough, and he even admits that he's flip-flopping

His top scum reads are Day_Walker because he doesn't like that Day_Walker has a town read on him (???), and me, because he thinks I'm too eager to scumhunt (also ???). And aside from his knee-jerk suspicions thrown at OWB, Balla and now Derrida he hasn't contributed any other reads.

+ Show Spoiler +

His top 2 scum read post:


I'm not good enough at this game to get scum reads from forum posts. If you REALLY want me to give my top 2 most suspicious people are:

Day_Walker: If I don't buy his town read on me, why should I believe his other reads. I've got the most votes on me right now and I want to see if Day_Walker still thinks I'm a townie.

suki: "Okay then, lets get back to scumhunting :D". A bit too eager to go scumhunting there, don't ya think? Not really a good reason to call him mafia.



And finally under all this pressure then he says his play is due to him being new to the game and self-destructs.

I feel a lot of frustration in Dragoon's most recent posts, and I kind of feel bad for him since he is new to Mafia and this is a really gut-wrenching game, but I really do think his inexperience is his downfall and that there's no way he's not mafia here.

##vote theDragoon

More analysis on its way. If there's anything you want me to answer post it; I'll be here for a bit.

On January 07 2014 15:33 suki wrote:
Mmm.. I'm not biting.

Show nested quote +
From that, your reason to lynch Asuna was basically due to his inexperience. Not a good enough reason to warrant being lynched. It was also something I can relate with as I myself am prone to making excuses, bandwagoning and having self doubt, if I don't want to be lynched because I have those traits, I certainly don't want others to be as well.


This isn't good townie logic. Excuses, bandwagoning and self-doubt may be signs of newbie town, but they are also signs of mafia. You can't excuse someone for displaying mafia traits just because you display them. Again, it feels like you know that Asuna is a newbie town and that's what's suspicious here.

Show nested quote +
Suki to me sounds like a scum trying to take advantage of this situation, to get a townie a guaranteed lynch.

Show nested quote +
I'll have to warn the town about Suki, BigDad, Derrida and possibly Day_Walker (my so called scumbuddy).


The pro-town thing to do in your spot is to post the best analysis you can on the scummiest people you can find. This just feels like a last-ditch attempt to try to throw suspicion on everyone who voted you under the pretense of a "defense post" and see if someone bites.

On January 07 2014 15:42 suki wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 07 2014 15:10 Balla24 wrote:
I can't believe how some of you guys are so confident about how dragoon will flip scum. Suki, Jonny specifically..


I think I was pretty clear in my posts as to why I think Dragoon is scum.

I feel that his defense of Asuna is a major scum slip and the more he tries to justify it the more I believe it.

Dragoon has also not played a pro-town game at all. His only scum reads have been on those who are attacking him, and he hasn't even taken the time to properly form a case. Like, I still don't know why he thinks I'm scummy

Show nested quote +

suki: "Okay then, lets get back to scumhunting :D". A bit too eager to go scumhunting there, don't ya think? Not really a good reason to call him mafia.


I think that's the only reason he's given as to why I'm scum. Here is his defense post on me:

Show nested quote +

@Suki

theDragoon's knee jerk reaction to vote OWB because of an incorrect timeline.
- Attacking his attacker for a slight inconsistency.


I reacted to that inconsistency because he was trying to frame his argument based on the fact that I "changed my mind" about Day_Walker. He said something along the lines of me saying I changed my mind THEN... Day_Walker mentioned something. The only reason why I even mentioned Day_Walker at all is because Balla24 asked me what I thought, then people started putting words in my mouth saying I trusted him.

His flip-flopping on Derrida, first saying his suspicion is 'low' and then on his very next post saying Derrida is higher up.


New information pops up, you reread things you change your opinions. How's that scummy at all?

Suki to me sounds like a scum trying to take advantage of this situation, to get a townie a guaranteed lynch.

there's no way he's not mafia here.


Everyone watch out for Suki, her true nature as a scum will be revealed when I get flipped.



Where is the analysis? He's just blindly attacking me because hey, I straight up said he's the scummiest person in the game. Same with the other people he's called out.

I'd be very surprised if he bleeds green because his play has not been pro-town at all.

On January 08 2014 01:06 suki wrote:
Directed to Balla:

Several recent quotes from Balla:

+ Show Spoiler +

This is the most one sided lynch ever. I'm sorry but this should seriously be making you weary (suki/jonnylaw). The people who are not voting seem to also be tentatively saying that they are ok with the lynch if it were to happen now, besides Day_walker who probably is thinking along the same lines of this tbh.

I'm searching for a new target. I really don't like how hard you lurked today sidesprang, so I'd lynch you just based on that, but other than that, I find Derrida pretty scummy.


Ugh it's just so hard because I totally can see how scum would buss their teammate in this current situation. It's different than other one-sided lynches in the previous games because of how dragoon shut-down. Like I would totally buss him..

If I were scum, I would probably begin to buss him after he self-voted, so i'd look @ Derrida, suki and sidesprang (if im jsut looking at it chronologically, jonnylaw too)



I mean, let's be honest, there is 100% for sure scum in the people who already voted him. Having them have a forced hand on what they think about him might be a good thing. It's gonna be a weight on EVERYONE's back, not just towns.



I agree that the lynch on theDragoon is going smoothly, however that could just be mafia seeing the writing on the wall and deciding not to oppose. I agree that the smoothness of the lynch needs to be considered, however in the end we should still be lynching the scummiest person. Do you disagree?

Also, you were the second person to vote for theDragoon, and your vote hasn't changed since then. I just want to clarify, do you still find theDragoon to be the most scummy?

On January 13 2014 23:43 suki wrote:
Alright I'm here.

I had a reread through TheChyz's filter and I think he's been slipping hard since Day 2 ended.

Here is TheChyz's conversation with Balla during Night 2, bolded parts for emphasis:
+ Show Spoiler +

On January 12 2014 03:52 TheChyz wrote:
Anyways I still want to reread some peoples filters to make sure I didn't confuse things between people and I'll have my explanation before night ends, but can you post yours aswell Balla :
"Day 3 is going to be fun if what i'm thinking is happening. Will post about it later."

On January 12 2014 03:57 Balla24 wrote:
Also: there's 3 hours left, if I were going to post it I would have plenty of time to post it. I lost faith in the theory anyways.

On January 12 2014 04:03 TheChyz wrote:
And Balla, thats a bullshit reason not to make your post. You said "Day 3 is going to be fun if what i'm thinking is happening. Will post about it later" and since you keep pestering others to explain their thoughts, I expect you to do the same.

On January 12 2014 04:06 Balla24 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 12 2014 04:03 TheChyz wrote:
And Balla, thats a bullshit reason not to make your post. You said "Day 3 is going to be fun if what i'm thinking is happening. Will post about it later" and since you keep pestering others to explain their thoughts, I expect you to do the same.


NO fuck that that's so scummy. It's pretty obvious what I had to say was due to night actions. You're pretty silly if you can't see that. So why would I post it 3 HOURS before the night is over and let mafia plan around that.

MOST IMPORTANTLY THOUGH: Why are you pushing me so hard for it? I'm clearly active. This is SO fricking scummy from you Chyz. Do you need it to make a decision on what to do with your scum buddy?


On January 12 2014 04:22 TheChyz wrote:
@Balla
What is so scummy about it, your doing the exact same thing from everybody else and forcing them to explain things, what makes you such a special case that whenever you say something we should just let you pass cause your active? Jonny (i think) said that you are active both scum and town so I find no reason why you felt that posting that you will post your thoughts later and then now not wanting to is scummy from me. Seems like your being very defensive. And you don't have to post now, just before night ends (even if its 1 sec before)

On January 12 2014 04:40 Balla24 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 12 2014 03:14 Balla24 wrote:
On January 11 2014 07:06 TheChyz wrote:
Gotta go for a few hours, will be back afterwards. This vote kinda sucks but I think there is quite a wealth of information that can be garnered from it.


What info can be garnered from it? Want your analysis before night ends!


Chyz you skipped this too.

On January 12 2014 05:00 TheChyz wrote:
I didn't skip it, it will be done before the night ends. still got time.



First off, I feel that TheChyz's pressure on Balla is really off. He pressures Balla for not providing his reads, and Balla replies there's still three hours before the night is over. TheChyz calls bullshit on Balla's reasoning. Following that, Balla asks TheChyz for analysis, and TheChyz simply replies there's still time. This inconsistency stands out to me, and I think there's a very good reason for it if you assume TheChyz is mafia - He wants to know what Balla's reads are before he posts his own analysis.

There is no reason to assume Balla is not 1-shot vig as he claimed, and yet TheChyz seems to be getting ready to throw suspicion at Balla. Perhaps if Balla had his reads completely wrong and had posted them early enough, scum may have kept Balla alive. TheChyz posts his analysis at 2:58, 2 minutes before the deadline. Balla posts his at 2:59. The day post is posted at 3:02.

Asuna has also made a strong case against TheChyz, the most striking of which is:
Show nested quote +
Would be pretty funny if that inconsistent choice of tense in your most recent statement was actually a slipup lol.
"when I am scum the easiest thing for me to do was to lurk"


Looking at his 'setup analysis' where he wrongly concludes that there is a SK, it may just have been a ploy to root out the remaining blue role, which he was successful at doing now that Asuna has role claimed.

TheChyz tries to reason his way out by saying it was intentional or that it was due to his english, however I think there's enough evidence to strongly say that he screwed up in Night 2 and Day 3 and revealed himself through his actions and words.

##unvote
##vote TheChyz

On January 14 2014 06:09 suki wrote:
Just popping in to say that if theChyz flips scum in an hour, and I'm pretty sure he will, then BigDad is definitely his scumbuddy. TheChyz has been defending BigDad all game while not being under any pressure himself due to his Day 1 antics. It makes sense for a scum who is treated like a townie to back up his buddy who is under suspicion.

At the beginning of the game BigDad stated a soft defense of TheChyz ("I'm leaning toward Balla and TheChyz being townie"), when TheChyz was under pressure for his antics, but ever since that post BigDad has put mild pressure against TheChyz until his full on bus today. The fact that BigDad has never closely analyzed TheChyz I think makes sense if both of them are scum.

I think we've solved the game guys :D I'm getting jitters anticipating the flip.

Unfortunately I have a dinner with my family so I'll miss the deadline but I'll pop back on as soon as I can.



We're not seeing any of that flipfloppiness really this game.

- She tends to do this thing where whenever she gives an opinion on someone, she bolds their name up front first and then writes about them as mafia. I don't see that in her town games at all and she started doing it here but stopped. Pretty weak point, but meh whatever.

- She's been buddying up to me hella hard. It's been making me nervous all game and it hasn't stopped now. Like I really enjoyed the fun we were having but...it just scares me.

Those are the general trends i'm noticing that are conflicting with this game. Beyond that, everything is pretty townie, her reasoning and followups are very solid. There are no serious contradictions or flaws in her logic or misrepresentations of what people are saying. Amazingly enough, I've come to expect this from a scum suki. She's really good.




TL;DR: Scum suki is scary. Fuck im scared. Somebody hold me. Post more guards or some shit cause they raping everybody out here.
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
February 09 2014 06:16 GMT
#983
+ Show Spoiler +
On February 09 2014 14:45 jaybrundage wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 09 2014 14:17 Balla24 wrote:
WIFOM at best. Not thinking about it.

I've been wrestling with suki's alignment for the past like 4 hours. I think this is where the term "Svengali" applies or whatever Slam loves to use. She's way too good at manipulating me. She's way too good at scum. There's so much in her filter that is sooooooooo townie, but there's so much that's making me think back to the scum game she had and saying... wow... that's really similar.

I've probably written and erased like 3 of my long posts about her now... maybe I should just post both the town version and the scum version.

Ask yourself why would a townie would be using WIFOM?

In regards to Suki, Balla this is you.
[image loading]

This is what the town needs you to be.
[image loading]


Did I make it to Theoden Horsemaster status?
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
February 09 2014 06:33 GMT
#985
Offtopic: I'd just like to state that even if I'm wrong on everything from here on out, this has already been the funnest game of mafia i've ever played. You guys are great. There's really no bad blood compared to normal games or anything like that we're just a bunch of carebears having fun calling each other mafia. Good times, good times.
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
February 09 2014 06:38 GMT
#988
On February 09 2014 15:35 jaybrundage wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 09 2014 15:33 Balla24 wrote:
Offtopic: I'd just like to state that even if I'm wrong on everything from here on out, this has already been the funnest game of mafia i've ever played. You guys are great. There's really no bad blood compared to normal games or anything like that we're just a bunch of carebears having fun calling each other mafia. Good times, good times.

I resent this.

Goodnight you fucking shitty.
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
February 09 2014 16:30 GMT
#1012
More pls.. Theres 2 maf left
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
February 09 2014 16:30 GMT
#1013
Still jayb?
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
February 09 2014 16:33 GMT
#1015
Missed it. Thats a lot of townreads.
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
February 09 2014 16:42 GMT
#1019
On February 10 2014 01:36 Hopeless1der wrote:
it's about the right number of townreads though.


On February 10 2014 01:36 suki wrote:
Do you disagree with any of my reasons? Are you suspicious of any of the people who I am calling likely town at this point?


Yeah it's the perfect amount. Just wanted to see reaction. No I don't disagree with any of them.

Suki what do you make of the votes?
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
February 09 2014 18:17 GMT
#1026
There's a big problem here in that out of Jaybrundage/Suki, both had very similar non logical progressions on Jonny. Both wanted to see "more" from him, both saw him as scummy later in the day but didn't switch to him.

I feel that Suki's progression makes more sense. She was pushing jaybrundage hard because she thought he was scum.

Jay's doesn't really follow. It was clear that Jonny was going to get lynched, and he doesn't really share his opinions, he OMGUS vs suki and then his thread presence during the lynch was non-existent. There was no thoughts on the lynch DURING the lynch which I find really surprising for jay. He kind of accepted it and stuck on a useless suki vote, didn't try to push it on anybody else etc etc. He wasn't doing anything even though he should have been doing something, as though it was a lost cause.

I really do feel like we have a scum within suki/jay though, so if we lynch within them we have 50% chance on either. Whereas out of the jonny voters I think we are getting more to a 25% chance or so to hit the scum.

Although if I'm wrong about this. There's actually 2 scum in the jonny vote and therefore we have closer to a 50% chance of hitting scum in there. I can't decide whether I'd like to lynch within the jonny voters or within jay/suki.
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
February 09 2014 18:27 GMT
#1029
Probability has not failed me yet ^_^
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
February 09 2014 21:22 GMT
#1035
Alright before the night ends I want to let you all know what my plan for the day is:

As I keep saying, there is at most 1 scum in the suki/jaybrundage pair. There could be 0. There is without a doubt 1 scum in the jonnylaw lynch from day1. That's where we should lynch today. They need to be pressured as they have mostly just slid by without doing anything at all. On the other hand, the suki/jaybrundage pair has been pushed to all hell.

One thing we do know 100% is that at least 1 of Suki & Jaybrundage are town.

From everyone, I want to know which one of them is most likelier to be town with good reasoning. This is especially important for Coag/Hopeless/Oats and the rest of the crew who had very weak/non-existant reasoning for voting Jonnylaw. Why? These relationships will be important later on to determine who the scum is out of not only them, but also out of suki/jaybrundage.

After that, we should move into determining which one of them is the scum and moving on with the day.

It is very important that you guys share your opinions on which one of Suki & Jay is town. If you think they are both town, that's fine too, share your reasoning




One of the things that is interesting is that Coag said "town is in a great place and the atmosphere is good, its likely that the mafia is lurking" (paraphrased). This is actually a really good point. Some people's activity during this night was actually really bad or different, these people are:

Aquanim, Oats, Coag, Sidesprang, Lonemeow

What's with the change of activity on night 1? There was plenty to talk about.

Town

After all I wrote about Suki last night, I feel she is actually town. Gonna go with Occam's razor for now. Like I said, beyond the things that feel "off" about her that I talked about, she's playing super pro-town. There's nothing in her filter that's scummy. There's no contradictions, there's no misrepresentations, her cases are not fake. It's really really good. We'll see if this continues or not. It will be hard for her to continue this without playing against her team's best interests.

I also feel jaybrundage is town. While his progression on Jonny is kinda weird, it also kind of makes sense i guess, and he seems to be able to explain it with some good clarity

On February 10 2014 05:05 jaybrundage wrote:
In response to + Show Spoiler +
On February 10 2014 03:17 Balla24 wrote:
There's a big problem here in that out of Jaybrundage/Suki, both had very similar non logical progressions on Jonny. Both wanted to see "more" from him, both saw him as scummy later in the day but didn't switch to him.

I feel that Suki's progression makes more sense. She was pushing jaybrundage hard because she thought he was scum.

Jay's doesn't really follow. It was clear that Jonny was going to get lynched, and he doesn't really share his opinions, he OMGUS vs suki and then his thread presence during the lynch was non-existent. There was no thoughts on the lynch DURING the lynch which I find really surprising for jay. He kind of accepted it and stuck on a useless suki vote, didn't try to push it on anybody else etc etc. He wasn't doing anything even though he should have been doing something, as though it was a lost cause.

I really do feel like we have a scum within suki/jay though, so if we lynch within them we have 50% chance on either. Whereas out of the jonny voters I think we are getting more to a 25% chance or so to hit the scum.

Although if I'm wrong about this. There's actually 2 scum in the jonny vote and therefore we have closer to a 50% chance of hitting scum in there. I can't decide whether I'd like to lynch within the jonny voters or within jay/suki.


Yea I was a bit of a mess later on in day 1. I didn't feel convicted with jonny being scum. I had an early town read on him. I thought you and Koshi were scum and when jonny was agreeing with my thinking it made me think he was town. I was using the heuristic that people who think similarly to me were more likely to be the same alignment as me. However I was wrong with ya'll being scum and similarly with Jonny being town.

So yea my reads were all pretty bad early day 1. I began to see jonny as nuller as the day went on. But I never felt that he was sure scum or anything. Then when I got too the thread in the near end of the day. I felt scared to contribute as I didn't want to attract unwanted attention by saying the wrong thing and getting mislynched. I had had a pretty shitty day 1 so I was being pretty cautious. This is a bit of a scummy mind set but I didn't really have much conviction on jonny. I was still pretty null on him. I felt going to the thread and waffling would look bad. So in the end when I commented I didn't mention him at all. As I had nothing of use to add. Instead I commented on other people of interest.

I could of moved my vote to jonny. But it felt like it was an empty action. What would be the point of it. He was getting lynched and I had nothing to add or much of opinion that was worth voicing. Alot of this hesitancy stemmed from my bad day 1 and at that point in the game. I was fine with my strong town reads: Balla, Aqua having the reins to the lynch wagon.

My biggest concern after my botched start was not to get mislynched tho as opposed to trying to lead a lynch. I tried with who I thought was scum at the beginning. But after that went badly I just wanted to make sure town didn't get a mislynch on me. So that should explain my end of the day play I believe. If you have any questions feel free to ask. I might not be back respond till after the night is over tho.


Even though it's after the fact, so it's hard to tell whether it's genuine or not.

Also the more and more I look at the Jonny lynch, the more and more I see the fact that it looks so incredibly dire that it's pretty ballsy to not buss Jonny in this situation.

Mafia
Oatsmaster's progression on Jonny is like 100% times worse then either of jay or suki. Somebody already pointed this out but, he was townie on jonny then suddenly he has these 3 posts:

On February 08 2014 11:14 Oatsmaster wrote:
Hmm johnny says he is gonna post a case on balla. I wanna see how that goea but currently I could lynch
Hes like really angry. Angry people are scummy people


On February 08 2014 22:58 Oatsmaster wrote:
##unvote
bleh.
sheep time
##vote johnny


On February 08 2014 23:43 Oatsmaster wrote:
i havent read the hopeless read on me shit.

Im like 70-80% sure johnny has red blood


How do you go from, he's probably town to he's scum like that just because he's mad. Suki actually pointed out that he said "angry people are scummy people" even though some of the cases on him were that he's NOT angry and that angry jonny = townie jonny but that wasn't happening. It's just such a weak reasoning. Then 70-80% is pretty high but I guess that's arbitrary, It's pretty weird for someone to go mehprobablytownie to PROBABLY SCUM. I'd expect more something like mehprobablytownie to mehprobablyscum.

Everybody else still is the same and I haven't found anything that would change my opinion on them. There is still Aquanim though, who even though I had him on my town list, there's something about him that is rubbing me the wrong way that I can't quite put my finger on. For now he's town still but I want to keep an eye on him.

Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
February 09 2014 21:26 GMT
#1036
Oh also about the jayB blue claim stuff, I think I know what he was doing which is another thing that leans townie in my eyes. I don't really see scum jayB fake claiming there, but I do think I know what he was doing and I think it's townie to do so. Won't say more on this subject though, even in the resolution period.
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