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Everyone was on Jonny so it's hard to draw conclusions.
Coag went on Jonny at the last minute with no explanation. The no explanation is scummy. It's hard to fault him on being last to vote Jonny because he replaced in late. Sidesprang scum also is easy to explain as he jumped on Jonny when there was already a strong wagon forming.
I think it's just WIFOM trying to figure out Jay keeping his vote on me.
@Jay : My read on you is that I'm not sure. Confirmation bias says you're less likely to be scum because Jonny flipped scum. However that's WIFOM. I want to see how you play out Day 2 and then draw conclusions off of that.
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The fact that slam was buddying with me on Jay might indicate a scum plan to be on both the Jay and Jonny lynches. They might have expected the lynch to be a lot less one-sided.
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It' not really scummy. Scummers always love to give 2 lines of dumb explanation.
It's pretty null.
The best part of the case is that Alakaslam was not playing at all. We should check that mini mafia game I guess in which he didn't post much.
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Coag Where are ya bud?
COME OUT TO PLAY :D
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Also Lonemeow we haven't seen you for a while. Ditto for you bud. Get in here and try to make an effort to be more active.
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There's a big problem here in that out of Jaybrundage/Suki, both had very similar non logical progressions on Jonny. Both wanted to see "more" from him, both saw him as scummy later in the day but didn't switch to him.
I feel that Suki's progression makes more sense. She was pushing jaybrundage hard because she thought he was scum.
Jay's doesn't really follow. It was clear that Jonny was going to get lynched, and he doesn't really share his opinions, he OMGUS vs suki and then his thread presence during the lynch was non-existent. There was no thoughts on the lynch DURING the lynch which I find really surprising for jay. He kind of accepted it and stuck on a useless suki vote, didn't try to push it on anybody else etc etc. He wasn't doing anything even though he should have been doing something, as though it was a lost cause.
I really do feel like we have a scum within suki/jay though, so if we lynch within them we have 50% chance on either. Whereas out of the jonny voters I think we are getting more to a 25% chance or so to hit the scum.
Although if I'm wrong about this. There's actually 2 scum in the jonny vote and therefore we have closer to a 50% chance of hitting scum in there. I can't decide whether I'd like to lynch within the jonny voters or within jay/suki.
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Don't think we will need to use % like that for tomorrow.
Balla and Koshi looking supersexy.
Aquanim needs to keep posting smart things, but is in no danger.
Hopeless and Oats need to keep posting even more smart things.
If they do that we got 4 guys left.
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5 even. jayb, LM, Coag, suki and sidesprang.
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Probability has not failed me yet ^_^
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On February 09 2014 07:02 Toadesstern wrote:Night 1 *here be fluff* It is now Night 1! Mafia and Town has until Sunday, Feb 09 8:59pm GMT (GMT+00:00) to send in night actions. Please send information to both host and co-host! Day 2 will begin at Sunday, Feb 09 9:59pm GMT (GMT+00:00).
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In response to + Show Spoiler +On February 10 2014 03:17 Balla24 wrote:
There's a big problem here in that out of Jaybrundage/Suki, both had very similar non logical progressions on Jonny. Both wanted to see "more" from him, both saw him as scummy later in the day but didn't switch to him.
I feel that Suki's progression makes more sense. She was pushing jaybrundage hard because she thought he was scum.
Jay's doesn't really follow. It was clear that Jonny was going to get lynched, and he doesn't really share his opinions, he OMGUS vs suki and then his thread presence during the lynch was non-existent. There was no thoughts on the lynch DURING the lynch which I find really surprising for jay. He kind of accepted it and stuck on a useless suki vote, didn't try to push it on anybody else etc etc. He wasn't doing anything even though he should have been doing something, as though it was a lost cause.
I really do feel like we have a scum within suki/jay though, so if we lynch within them we have 50% chance on either. Whereas out of the jonny voters I think we are getting more to a 25% chance or so to hit the scum.
Although if I'm wrong about this. There's actually 2 scum in the jonny vote and therefore we have closer to a 50% chance of hitting scum in there. I can't decide whether I'd like to lynch within the jonny voters or within jay/suki.
Yea I was a bit of a mess later on in day 1. I didn't feel convicted with jonny being scum. I had an early town read on him. I thought you and Koshi were scum and when jonny was agreeing with my thinking it made me think he was town. I was using the heuristic that people who think similarly to me were more likely to be the same alignment as me. However I was wrong with ya'll being scum and similarly with Jonny being town.
So yea my reads were all pretty bad early day 1. I began to see jonny as nuller as the day went on. But I never felt that he was sure scum or anything. Then when I got too the thread in the near end of the day. I felt scared to contribute as I didn't want to attract unwanted attention by saying the wrong thing and getting mislynched. I had had a pretty shitty day 1 so I was being pretty cautious. This is a bit of a scummy mind set but I didn't really have much conviction on jonny. I was still pretty null on him. I felt going to the thread and waffling would look bad. So in the end when I commented I didn't mention him at all. As I had nothing of use to add. Instead I commented on other people of interest.
I could of moved my vote to jonny. But it felt like it was an empty action. What would be the point of it. He was getting lynched and I had nothing to add or much of opinion that was worth voicing. Alot of this hesitancy stemmed from my bad day 1 and at that point in the game. I was fine with my strong town reads: Balla, Aqua having the reins to the lynch wagon.
My biggest concern after my botched start was not to get mislynched tho as opposed to trying to lead a lynch. I tried with who I thought was scum at the beginning. But after that went badly I just wanted to make sure town didn't get a mislynch on me. So that should explain my end of the day play I believe. If you have any questions feel free to ask. I might not be back respond till after the night is over tho.
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Resolution time has started. Night actions may no longer be changed. Players are still allowed to speak.
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jayB. Let's hear which blue claim.
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Alright before the night ends I want to let you all know what my plan for the day is:
As I keep saying, there is at most 1 scum in the suki/jaybrundage pair. There could be 0. There is without a doubt 1 scum in the jonnylaw lynch from day1. That's where we should lynch today. They need to be pressured as they have mostly just slid by without doing anything at all. On the other hand, the suki/jaybrundage pair has been pushed to all hell.
One thing we do know 100% is that at least 1 of Suki & Jaybrundage are town.
From everyone, I want to know which one of them is most likelier to be town with good reasoning. This is especially important for Coag/Hopeless/Oats and the rest of the crew who had very weak/non-existant reasoning for voting Jonnylaw. Why? These relationships will be important later on to determine who the scum is out of not only them, but also out of suki/jaybrundage.
After that, we should move into determining which one of them is the scum and moving on with the day.
It is very important that you guys share your opinions on which one of Suki & Jay is town. If you think they are both town, that's fine too, share your reasoning
One of the things that is interesting is that Coag said "town is in a great place and the atmosphere is good, its likely that the mafia is lurking" (paraphrased). This is actually a really good point. Some people's activity during this night was actually really bad or different, these people are:
Aquanim, Oats, Coag, Sidesprang, Lonemeow
What's with the change of activity on night 1? There was plenty to talk about.
Town
After all I wrote about Suki last night, I feel she is actually town. Gonna go with Occam's razor for now. Like I said, beyond the things that feel "off" about her that I talked about, she's playing super pro-town. There's nothing in her filter that's scummy. There's no contradictions, there's no misrepresentations, her cases are not fake. It's really really good. We'll see if this continues or not. It will be hard for her to continue this without playing against her team's best interests.
I also feel jaybrundage is town. While his progression on Jonny is kinda weird, it also kind of makes sense i guess, and he seems to be able to explain it with some good clarity
On February 10 2014 05:05 jaybrundage wrote:In response to + Show Spoiler +On February 10 2014 03:17 Balla24 wrote:
There's a big problem here in that out of Jaybrundage/Suki, both had very similar non logical progressions on Jonny. Both wanted to see "more" from him, both saw him as scummy later in the day but didn't switch to him.
I feel that Suki's progression makes more sense. She was pushing jaybrundage hard because she thought he was scum.
Jay's doesn't really follow. It was clear that Jonny was going to get lynched, and he doesn't really share his opinions, he OMGUS vs suki and then his thread presence during the lynch was non-existent. There was no thoughts on the lynch DURING the lynch which I find really surprising for jay. He kind of accepted it and stuck on a useless suki vote, didn't try to push it on anybody else etc etc. He wasn't doing anything even though he should have been doing something, as though it was a lost cause.
I really do feel like we have a scum within suki/jay though, so if we lynch within them we have 50% chance on either. Whereas out of the jonny voters I think we are getting more to a 25% chance or so to hit the scum.
Although if I'm wrong about this. There's actually 2 scum in the jonny vote and therefore we have closer to a 50% chance of hitting scum in there. I can't decide whether I'd like to lynch within the jonny voters or within jay/suki. Yea I was a bit of a mess later on in day 1. I didn't feel convicted with jonny being scum. I had an early town read on him. I thought you and Koshi were scum and when jonny was agreeing with my thinking it made me think he was town. I was using the heuristic that people who think similarly to me were more likely to be the same alignment as me. However I was wrong with ya'll being scum and similarly with Jonny being town. So yea my reads were all pretty bad early day 1. I began to see jonny as nuller as the day went on. But I never felt that he was sure scum or anything. Then when I got too the thread in the near end of the day. I felt scared to contribute as I didn't want to attract unwanted attention by saying the wrong thing and getting mislynched. I had had a pretty shitty day 1 so I was being pretty cautious. This is a bit of a scummy mind set but I didn't really have much conviction on jonny. I was still pretty null on him. I felt going to the thread and waffling would look bad. So in the end when I commented I didn't mention him at all. As I had nothing of use to add. Instead I commented on other people of interest. I could of moved my vote to jonny. But it felt like it was an empty action. What would be the point of it. He was getting lynched and I had nothing to add or much of opinion that was worth voicing. Alot of this hesitancy stemmed from my bad day 1 and at that point in the game. I was fine with my strong town reads: Balla, Aqua having the reins to the lynch wagon. My biggest concern after my botched start was not to get mislynched tho as opposed to trying to lead a lynch. I tried with who I thought was scum at the beginning. But after that went badly I just wanted to make sure town didn't get a mislynch on me. So that should explain my end of the day play I believe. If you have any questions feel free to ask. I might not be back respond till after the night is over tho.
Even though it's after the fact, so it's hard to tell whether it's genuine or not.
Also the more and more I look at the Jonny lynch, the more and more I see the fact that it looks so incredibly dire that it's pretty ballsy to not buss Jonny in this situation.
Mafia
Oatsmaster's progression on Jonny is like 100% times worse then either of jay or suki. Somebody already pointed this out but, he was townie on jonny then suddenly he has these 3 posts:
On February 08 2014 11:14 Oatsmaster wrote:Hmm johnny says he is gonna post a case on balla. I wanna see how that goea but currently I could lynch Hes like really angry. Angry people are scummy people 
On February 08 2014 22:58 Oatsmaster wrote:
##unvote
bleh.
sheep time
##vote johnny
On February 08 2014 23:43 Oatsmaster wrote:
i havent read the hopeless read on me shit.
Im like 70-80% sure johnny has red blood
How do you go from, he's probably town to he's scum like that just because he's mad. Suki actually pointed out that he said "angry people are scummy people" even though some of the cases on him were that he's NOT angry and that angry jonny = townie jonny but that wasn't happening. It's just such a weak reasoning. Then 70-80% is pretty high but I guess that's arbitrary, It's pretty weird for someone to go mehprobablytownie to PROBABLY SCUM. I'd expect more something like mehprobablytownie to mehprobablyscum.
Everybody else still is the same and I haven't found anything that would change my opinion on them. There is still Aquanim though, who even though I had him on my town list, there's something about him that is rubbing me the wrong way that I can't quite put my finger on. For now he's town still but I want to keep an eye on him.
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Oh also about the jayB blue claim stuff, I think I know what he was doing which is another thing that leans townie in my eyes. I don't really see scum jayB fake claiming there, but I do think I know what he was doing and I think it's townie to do so. Won't say more on this subject though, even in the resolution period.
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These aren't my best thought-out reads ever, but I have some faith that if I get shot here you guys will be fine anyway.
On Suki:
+ Show Spoiler +Points for town: - Pushed scumreads (Sidesprang, JayB) in the thread
- Seems to be trying to draw information into the thread e.g. here, here
Both of these she did as scum in LI I guess, but I'd be deeply suspicious if they weren't here. Moving on.
- Scumread on JayB was kind of reasonable, his cases on Koshi and Alak definitely looked incredibly sketchy
- Posts feel... well, natural. Suki seemed genuinely aggreived that the thread sentiment was against her point of view. (e.g. here, here)
Points for scum: - Pushed a different wagon to a scum lynch. Pretty basic one here.
- Didn't back off jayB even after the blue soft-claim.
Well, to be honest, those lists didn't help me much. Anyway... I don't feel like the blue-claim argument is a slam-dunk on Suki. In Newbie XXXI I remember pushing a lynch on Oatsmaster, and continuing to push it after he straight-up claimed doctor because I didn't believe him. I was mislynched there, for that among other reasons. Back to the point - I think it's a valid point against Suki but not conclusive.
Conclusion: Still not entirely convinced either way, though I have a nagging feeling that she's town. I certainly want to see lynches other than Suki at least considered tomorrow.
On Alakaslam/Coagulation:
+ Show Spoiler +Points for town: - Alak appeared to be putting some thought into the game: here, here
Points for scum: - Alak didn't push any cases or ask any questions really... not like he had the opportunity, though.
- Dodged discussion of the lynch, but if he was still reading... meh.
- I drank the wine in front of me re. Coag's plea to be vig-shot, and it tasted scummy. The post is weird, but it feels (marginally) more natural to me as a scum posting that to make a vigilante second-guess themselves. This is very marginal and your mileage may vary. Or, on the other hand, maybe he just wants out of the game and the post was sincere - also possible.
- This post. I have no idea what my name is doing next to Oats, LM and Sidesprang.
I would look for any more scum in Oatsmaster, Sidesprang and Hopeless, probably in that order. Maybe LoneMeow too, but I got some reasonable town-feels from him.
Everybody else I'm fairly confident is town. If JayB's blueclaim falls through maybe re-examine him.
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EBWOP: That's missing a conclusion on Coag.
Conclusion: It wouldn't suprise me if this slot flipped scum, though I am quite aware I can't read Coag to save my life and I'm hardly much better at reading Alak.
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Balla why is it more likely that me or oats is scum? Did you see Marv's godly bus on sandroba that was basically the point at which town lost the original game? "Oh scum wouldn't bus like that". Don't pull that shit. Koshi is town because jonny slipped. You're probably town because I like ya. I'm town because my pm told me so. In my eyes everyone else is a target.
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Wat... that's not what I said at all.
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EPT
