[M][N] "SMB" Mini Mafia

On January 16 2014 09:54 Toadesstern wrote:

you literally made the best post I've ever seen someone make on p1 of a game and end up making it by accident and it wasn't even intentionally, so sad.

On January 17 2014 05:40 Sn0_Man wrote:

If this is that fucking "the first person to accuse me is scum" thing again...

That game was so painful T_T

On January 17 2014 08:14 thrawn2112 wrote:


rayn I think toad is scum if he is actually serious about this

On January 17 2014 11:36 kushm4sta wrote:
you dont think sno is scum, vayne?

On January 17 2014 11:44 thrawn2112 wrote:


kush+sn0, two people i'm town reading, seem to be the top lynch candidates. I can't just ignore that. not pushing my own lynch is just a failure on my part. i have tried though... i've voted grack, oats attacked me for it and i tried to get him to comment on my grack post. all he said was "grack isn't scum for the reasons he gave for voting koshi." i guess that's a failure on my part too because I should know by now that I can't expect Oats to cooperate

also i've stated this repeatedly, some of my reads are subject to change based on future posts from others. obviously i can't explain that until it happens. really vayne, you yourself are doing the exact same thing (not showing all your cards) so i expect some understanding. if D1 goes by and I ended up not trying to push a lynch then we can resume this conversation

On January 17 2014 12:21 kushm4sta wrote:
lynch vayne because he's a slimy mofo who refuses to give reads on people?

On January 17 2014 15:20 kushm4sta wrote:
Cephiro
Koshi
raynpelikoneet

early scumteam prediction

On January 17 2014 15:48 thrawn2112 wrote:


yeah, could be. but that requires a lot of extra thought on koshi's part to make a post (a post which doesntt seem all that thought out)

speaking of who rayn choses to talk to I'm a little surprised at how little effort he's put into reading me.. we do have a history of town rayn accusing town thrawn

On January 17 2014 16:02 kushm4sta wrote:
actually it's probably vayne because his reads are lame as fuck.
These are the two people vayne wants to lynch:

On January 17 2014 16:04 kushm4sta wrote:


why don't your reads matter?

On January 17 2014 16:08 kushm4sta wrote:
i have no idea but it sounds like you are claiming blue for some reason?

On January 18 2014 02:13 kushm4sta wrote:
Vayne why don't you like the hopeless lynch? There is much more evidence supporting hopeless being scum than grack

On January 18 2014 02:16 Toadesstern wrote:
because the issue I'm having with you is still that one post I quoted yesterday, that everyone else ignored despite my quote:

This is right after the I want millers to claim post you did.


So here's the thing. I thought about this for the past 24 hours and tried to come up with scenarios in which you could say that.
And here's what I got:

1) You're a DT
2) You're a VT/VET trying to absorb hits at night
3) You're some kind of weird guy who has some kind of weird, convoluted plan, probably including some kind of mass claim that could totally, according to you, screw mafia
4) You're mafia that tries to look like any of the above

We can already say that 1 isn't true because no DT would be stupid enough to say that.
We can also conclude that 2 isn't the case because:

Now you just said 3) isn't the case either.

So wtf?

On January 18 2014 02:19 kushm4sta wrote:
Vayne, hopeless filter is inflated because he has been under pressure, which understandably has induced him to try hard.

On January 18 2014 02:29 Hopeless1der wrote:

at what point do you believe kush when he says I have been under pressure?

On January 18 2014 02:45 Grackaroni wrote:
You liked Koshi's recent posting Vayne?

On January 18 2014 08:44 Grackaroni wrote:
Im out. Kush may be the smartest mafia player on TL.

On January 18 2014 08:43 VayneAuthority wrote:
Did anyone notice the contradiction where Grack says that "picking a random read" is a scum trait and he himself is doing the same thing right now?

wanna explain that one before I vote?

On January 18 2014 16:48 thrawn2112 wrote:




Night Post, grack dies.



vayne do you care to explain how you went from thinking grack is scum, to knowing he's going to flip green, to being surprised that he flipped green?

I don't know how you can possibly post "if none of those ppl are night killed then I will believe grack rofL" before his flip, while you're currently scumreading and voting him.

On January 18 2014 16:51 thrawn2112 wrote:
"at least grack's cum tastes real sweet eh?"

I also want to point out vayne's underlying delight at a townie death

On January 18 2014 17:21 thrawn2112 wrote:
Before someone says "vayne cant be scum because of meta" which is why I wrote him off early, I just looked at his play in sicilian and les (scum games) and found that he can be aggressive, or dickish, or whatever as scum, and he can post img macros as scum. So throw all of that meta out the window, it's a really dumb reason to never open his filter.

On January 18 2014 17:45 thrawn2112 wrote:
Vayne, what's this?





You point out that skan did a scummy thing, but no, it's a shit reason you don't really care about? But you are concered that he defended himself? But "whatever?"

On January 19 2014 08:14 Toadesstern wrote:

お前は何でも知ってるな

On January 19 2014 09:20 Toadesstern wrote:

rayn thinks you're blue. Sad thing I can't take this information for granted. Would be hilarious to lynch him off of that.

On January 19 2014 09:26 Toadesstern wrote:

I'd guess one of rayn/Mig, from you point of view you should probably include me as well, is SK. Mafia didn't shoot into any of that due to fear of protection and the SK didn't shoot that because I looked like a good lynch a couple hours ago, so no need to shoot that and one of rayn/Mig is SK himself, so he doesn't shoot himself either and the 3rd one is either mafia or most likely protected by a doc, assuming a doc is in the game.

On January 18 2014 14:14 Oatsmaster wrote:

Hey kush, who do you think is dying tonight?
I think probably thrawn or Mig.

On January 19 2014 05:27 thrawn2112 wrote:


seems like an ok list. third maybe mig or skan? no idea really. i don't want to even think about hopeless anymore but my heart tells me he's town

all i can say with any confidence is kush/rayn/sn0 = town

On January 20 2014 04:52 raynpelikoneet wrote:

Why would you say this if you believe his claim Vayne?

On January 20 2014 08:54 Skanjab1s wrote:
Hey, how about we don't kill the un-counterclaimed cop, and instead let mafia waste an nk on him if you want him dead so badly. If he doesn't die at night then we can kill him tomorrow.

On January 21 2014 07:26 Mig wrote:
All mafia really needs is 1 more mislynch and a missed shot by the sk(assuming there is one) and they virtually guarantee a win. Knowing this they just let Toad die for nothing? Toad doesn't try to help his team at all?

And I know that I am town and I am the only one still reconsidering 1.5 hours before lynch. What none of his teammates even try to save him?

On January 21 2014 07:41 Mig wrote:
How was he caught lol. He had 2 votes.

On January 22 2014 09:14 Cephiro wrote:
Those of you that are town, think about the situation for a second -_-

If I was scum, why on earth would I fakeclaim SK when I would have had absolutely no trouble not getting lynched today, hardly worth the risk. As you can see, there are people instantly doubting my claim. Do you really think I would have done this as scum when I was under no pressure at all? Come on...

On January 22 2014 10:41 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Good point Vayne.

On January 23 2014 02:02 Skanjab1s wrote:
Vayne who do you think the scumteam is?

On January 22 2014 08:59 Cephiro wrote:
Mig is scum.
Koshi is town.
Hope is town.
Vayne is town.

2 remaining scum are in Oats/rayn/skan/Sn0

Rayn is the least likely of those, I believe him to be more likely town.

On January 22 2014 11:17 Cephiro wrote:
As for my claim.. these are the 1% situations (Scum believes SK still exists, which was a possibility if SK had hit medic protection or vet, or become roleblocked):

1) They take my claim seriously
--> 1a) [We now know Mig is town] -> They shoot anyone but Me, Mig, or their own team and win. Optimal play.
--> 1b) [If Mig had been scum] -> Roleblock Cephiro -> Avoids their team member being shot, causes a 3-1-3 mafia win if their shot goes through on a townie. This scenario no shot on Hope (vet claim).
If Vayne was a real rb, would have been the most likely target. Optimal play.

2) They do not believe my claim -> I have to be a fakeclaiming town.
--> Optimal play to shoot Cephiro. SK would not shoot someone fakeclaiming to be them in this situation.
---> Guaranteed to hit another target than the SK = Instant win if SK does not hit scum.

As you can see, in the different scenarios if the SK had existed, after my claim most of the optimal plays for scum consist of wasting an action on me.
I am a VT, and a wasted action on me would have been a good thing for town. (Real SK would have lived, possible remaining town powerroles would have lived.)

Then there are the 99% situations where scum goes with Occam's Razor, no SK in game.

1) They know my claim is fake

With information that we NOW have:

Scum has a vigilante.
There is no reason why town vigilante should not have claimed their action before N2 resolution period at latest.
Since there is no SK, this is the only possibility.

This means that scum also knew there is no SK.
The only exception for this would have been if the SK had shot a veteran, or a player under medic protection.
It is very reasonable for scum to assume no SK after N1 results.

--> This means scum knew my claim to be fake. They also know me to be town.
There is absolutely no reason to shoot a player people are already uncertain of.
How does an fake SK claim make from a town perspective?
Logical conclusion: It doesn't.
--> Absolutely no reason to NK Cephiro as town, if anything he looks like a likely mislynch after this.

Spicing it up: Whom of the remaining targets could they shoot to cause a most likely mislynch on D3?
Let's go through all assumptions as town. I tried to look at these from an unknown scumteam perspective.
Note that if any of these players is scum, they obviously would shoot their own, so it's not a possibility worth analysing.

Mig [Town]: Makes Cephiro look even worse. *Good shot*
Hope [Town]: Veteran claim, no reason to risk it and take a shot. *Bad shot*
Vayne [Town]: Roleblocking the same person again is a bad play, it would essentially confirm as town.
Unless try to force a mislynch with the scum rb's their own WIFOM. *Good shot*
Skan/Sno [Town]: Easy mislynch targets, both not very active and have been pressured before. *Bad shots*
Koshi/rayn [Town]: Both players that are considered fairly town. Would require a lot of effort to push for mislynch. *Good shots*

Mig ended up shot. A good play.
Why Mig over other good shots? There are a few conditions that raise the Mig shot value.
1) Other good shots are actually scum players.
2) Other good shots are not on track of real scum.
3) Maximize one target for mislynch.

We know for sure that 3) is true.
Now let's think about it.. why was Koshi/Rayn/Vayne not shot?
Remember that there are also no roleblock claims for D3 yet, which means the mafia probably withheld it for maximum wifom.

Vayne: Looks definitely worst, a previously claimed roleblock, and is still alive.
Koshi/Rayn: Koshi has not been very active, and rayn has been on wrong tracks fairly well so far.

If the choices for good shots were all town, scumteam would be Skan/Sno/Hope.
This is very unlikely however, and it is more likely at least one of the good shots did not get done because there is scum in there.
Vayne is the person I am most surprised of. Given the earlier roleblock, it would have made sense to shoot him if he was town.
Since they shot Mig, it is clear that I am their mislynch target of the day. They hardly could push a mislynch on a roleblocked townie,
counting on the wifom. Thus in my opinion it is very likely that Vayne is mafia.

1) Why would I fakeclaim SK as scum, knowing the situation I am about to claim is impossible.
2) Why would I do this without telling my teammates what I am about to do?
3) Why would they let me carry on with a horrible fakeclaim when I was in no danger of being lynched?

Any remaining town players will know I am town after reading this post. This is a free +1 confirmed townie for you remaining townies out there.
Now you have an easier time of deciding today's lynch when I am outruled as an option.
I also give you an extremely likely mafia in Vayne.

There is absolutely no townie that should be pushing for me after reading this post, which means you can consider anyone wanting to lynch me after this post to be scum.

On January 23 2014 02:09 raynpelikoneet wrote:

There is nothing to address.

Cephiro makes sense from town pov when he explained it. You have yourself claimed fucking scum as town t oWIFOM and you "can't believe" someone does that. You of all the people vayne, it sounds so hilarious.

On January 23 2014 01:56 VayneAuthority wrote:


believes cephiro's conspiracy theory when he comes back into the thread

nuff said

he can't explain that one as town, and it is obvious I'm town. remember that it is mylo today so scum are going to be desperate and make mistakes.

On January 23 2014 02:13 raynpelikoneet wrote:
How about Vayne you talk about why your read on me and Koshi is pure bullshit, and why don't you comment on the Koshi case at the same time?

On January 23 2014 02:16 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Reminds me of Golden Sun.

On January 23 2014 02:20 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Noone is saying so.

I am saying you are mafia because you can't possibly believe Cephiro is mafia as town because that's EXACTLY what he does as town. Do you think Cephiro as mafia (when he is not under any pressure at all) goes through all that effort and makes some "townie plan" when he can just... not do it? HE WAS UNDER NO PRESSURE VAYNE!

On top of that your reads on me, Koshi and Skanjabs are really fucking shitty, because your read on me is not a read and your read on Koshi is a total misconstruction of his meta. You read on Skan is "he is mafia because he is accusing mafia" which is bullshit.

That's why i think you are mafia. So if you are town start reading the fucking thread and comment on other people besides your tunnelteam.

On January 21 2014 10:48 raynpelikoneet wrote:
If someone does anti-town stuff they should be lynched. I'd rather lynch 100 townies that do anti-town stuff than lose once to a mafia who gets away with that kinda stuff because people "just believe tooscummytobescum".

On January 23 2014 02:32 raynpelikoneet wrote:

Hogwarts mafia:
Cephiro fakeclims idk, about 10 different roles and has some fukcing plan that in the end gets him lynched.
Aperture mafia:
Cephiro makes a plan "hey let's not lynch scum but instead make him shoot another scum during the night" - ending up town losing becase we lynched town and scum endgamed the town during the night

On January 23 2014 02:38 raynpelikoneet wrote:
That is a scumteam that makes literally the least sense in this game.

On January 23 2014 02:45 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I don't understand how you can possibly think Koshi is possibly not mafia.
All he has done is yell Mig is scum. At the end of N2 he says "okay i have no reads". His top scumread dies and suddenly he knows all the scum instantly. Does that make sense to you? Then he votes for the dude who is in his opinion scum only by association. Does that make sense to you?

On January 23 2014 02:56 raynpelikoneet wrote:

No the case says:
"Koshi does not know which one of Vayne/Sn0 is mafia, but Koshi assumes Vayne is town and Sn0 is mafia and therefore wants to lynch Cephiro - which is bullshit".

I even said later on it's possible Sn0 and Koshi are both mafia and that's WHY Koshi wants to lynch Cephiro and not Sn0.

On January 23 2014 02:58 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I am not calling you mafia because of any fucking "did not die" or "association" bullshit.
Why are you saying so Vayne?

On January 24 2014 01:45 Sn0_Man wrote:
Assuming ceph is town which seems much safer to me, we 3 can get on oats now and I don't see a circumstance where scum can force through a mislynch...

Unless oats is somehow town but gimme a break. He dropped his scumread on me for no reason at LYLO because the lynch didn't gain traction. Then he just takes the safe vote and disappears again. Still no logic, still no contribution, no desire to solve the game at lylo for crying out loud.

Although I suppose we could do the same for koshi. Keep in mind that scum!oats can move off Koshi whenever to reduce his votes to 3 again, in the event that koshi is scum. I think it makes more sense to vote oats though, because I could see an Oats/Skanjab/Vayne scumteam where skanjab plans to last-second swap and oats just needed a safe place to rest his vote.

On January 24 2014 02:08 Cephiro wrote:
Fairly sure Koshi/Vayne/Oats is the scumteam, but if I had to replace one it would probably be Oats with either Skan or Sn0

Rayn and hope and me I am sure are town.

Need to re-read the actions after the night after I've ate. I am fairly sure the initial reactions most close to my fakeclaim and after the nightflip give us the best information.

On January 24 2014 08:12 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I have a REALLY hard time believing mafia faked a roleblock on Vayne.
Vayne is quite clear in my eyes IF mafia has indeed a roleblocker.

On January 24 2014 08:13 Cephiro wrote:
Remaining 2 scum are in Skan/Vayne/Oats.

I don't see Sn0 being scum based on interactions and flips so far, even if his play hasn't been the greatest.

The question is... whom out of those is town? Me or rayn will get shot the following night for sure.

On January 24 2014 08:17 raynpelikoneet wrote:

I am not saying you are scum if not, i am considering you confirmed town if Koshi flips roleblocker.

On January 24 2014 08:30 Cephiro wrote:


Why not? Chances of hitting a town powerrole on N1 is fairly small. I was scum in my first game of mafia ever (a newbie game on here), and we roleblocked our own team member. There are two ways that can be used well in my opinion:

1) Try and get town cred for the roleblocked one
2) Gather even more town cred for another teammate that makes a case on the roleblocked member of the mafia

On January 17 2014 00:28 Sn0_Man wrote:

1) I generally enjoyed my town games more than my singular replacement into a maf game
2) dafuq would I know?
3) Depends is a horrible cop-out answer everybody puts forth. I usually just OMGUS cuz omgus. Or whine a lot.
4) Tears, tears everywhere

Aaaaand in other news I certainly hope you aren't counting on this or your romp through my filter as "contributions".

On January 17 2014 01:10 Sn0_Man wrote:

This sounds a lot like "I intentionally made a worthless case cuz its my town meta and I gotta match that".

Which sounds a lot like scum :/

On January 18 2014 04:06 Sn0_Man wrote:
Okay, but the whole thread is scummy how do i choose?

Toad is full of shit and being dumb
Grack outright refuses to do anything that might indicate towniness
Hopeless wont stop sniping from the sidelines and making accusations without substantiating cases or contributing
Vaynes all mysterious and awful
Mig still won't do anything other than call me scum
Koshis all Koshi

And thats without cephiro the utterly afk.

How do I choose who to lynch? I choose whoever I think isn't gonna become more readable and lynch the crap outta them. Today its grack.

On January 21 2014 00:38 Sn0_Man wrote:
After reading that little hate-fest and claim I understand toad even less than yesterday but I'm having a hard time calling him a good lynch. What kind of mafia fake-claims with like 2 votes on them and 12 hours to lynch?

Right now Oats and Skanjab are looking scummiest, I'd like to lynch one of them.

I promise this isn't pure OMGUS, but all Oats has done this last day is flame and discredit the shit outta rayn without actually trying to find scum. Then he's like "Lynch Sn0" without reasons simply cuz I'm not here to defend myself. Zero scumhunting or effort, just aiming for an easy target he can safely back off of once I'm back.

On January 21 2014 00:48 Sn0_Man wrote:

Because every time you pop in the thread its to be blendy and point out some irrelevancy without actually scumhunting.

Who is scum Skanjab? Oh right, its me the safe vote that your scumbuddy oats has already put on the table. Why? "Sheepiness pre vote" give me a break. If you want to accuse me, at least try to make a case. I wanted CONSOLIDATION in the lynch. Something that scum couldn't just pull whatever way they wanted.

Meanwhile the rest of your posts range from

to

So helpful in catching scum. Clearly that is your primary desire.

PS why did you drop your hopeless read? You were so certain he was scum post grack's flip. What changed?

None of that comes from town.

On January 21 2014 01:24 Sn0_Man wrote:

You guys have both spend the entire game posting 1-line snipes that are pretty much dedicated to starting flame-wars and self-defense. Zero scumhunting. There's nothing to quote from your filters because there's nothing in them. Skanjab's day 1 case is the only thing worth mentioning and it's ridiculous garbage built on nothing day 1. Doesn't count as scumhunting, does count as trying to look good.

You in particular oats, your main contributions were "huge flame war with thrawn" -> lurk "huge flame war with rayn". I fail to see how town!Oats does that exclusively instead of actually scumhunting. Your "lynch rayn" case boiled down to "he thinks i'm scum lol" no other reasons. Plus you dropped it in seconds as soon as I showed up.

Toad I still don't get but I don't want to lynch uncountered cop claim see above.
Hopeless does have a vet claim and his posts struck me as better going through the thread. If there's a serious push to lynch him as I mentioned I can go back and re-read his filter specifically. However, I don't feel the need to do that when you two are so clearly scum.

On January 21 2014 01:40 Sn0_Man wrote:

Couldn't decide who I thought was a better lynch, you or skanjab.

On January 26 2014 02:57 Cephiro wrote:
Hope, do you suddenly think Oats is not scum? Why are you changing your vote when we're quite certain to have a scum with 3 votes up for lynch, if all three of us are town (You, Me, Sn0), then it's a guaranteed lynch since he's the first to three votes.

On January 26 2014 07:23 Hopeless1der wrote:
worst case scenario its 3v2v1 and the SK is eating roleblocks. If the SK lynches against town sentiment (lynch skan), they also lose and there may not be much we can do about it other than complain that they are not playing to their win condition. If its 4v2 like most people believe, Skanjab1s is a dead man. Simple right?

On January 27 2014 01:59 Skanjab1s wrote:
WHY WONT YOU VOTE VAYNE, OATS

HE IS THE ONE GUY THAT IS ON EVERY PLAUSIBLE SCUMTEAM.

On January 27 2014 10:13 WaveofShadow wrote:
Vayne your bluehunting is still fucking nuts dood