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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
On May 23 2014 04:31 Cavalinho wrote: I'm getting the feeling that Odin is actually just afk and that we probably shouldn't be voting him. >.> He could very well be AFK right now, but my case on him isn't "he's afk at deadline" so I don't see how that's relevant | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
On May 23 2014 04:38 Steveling wrote: Read it and I'm pretty sure you made that case BH becuse he's your rng target. You would have made a case on anyone who was rng'd just to see it happening. I don't like where this is going. Do you or do you not objectively agree with the points raised in my case? | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
well time to see who was jumping on the wagon with shit/inconsistent reasons, and to use my sweet power(s) | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
On May 23 2014 05:05 Steveling wrote: Can I say that I called everything here? Veterans townies should support me, I mean if you guys don't go after him now well.... The fact that Odin happened to flip town doesn't change the fact that objectively speaking my case was solid. If you really are town and really think I'm scum, you should be quiet and try not to raise my ire, since I'm clearly capable of convincing 12 people to vote odin, why would I not be capable of convincing them to vote you? hue hue hue hue hueheuheuheuheuheuheuheuheuhuehuehuehue | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
On May 23 2014 05:09 sqrtofneg1 wrote: Last minute changes: kushm4sta, Xatalos, Koshi, OnceKing, marvellosity, Hapahauli, thrawn2112, bkqyrldp, Cavalinho, Valenius, Holyflare In that order. hmmmmmm | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
On May 23 2014 05:11 Steveling wrote: Facepalm. ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/mYehCEY.jpg) Haters gonna hate | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
On May 23 2014 05:21 Steveling wrote: I find BH's recent silence amusing. Haters gonna hate | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
On May 23 2014 05:27 Steveling wrote: Yeah claiming isaac 10 hours after the game started wasn't a reason good enough for that. Scum gonna scum I guess. You can't honestly believe you can actually find like, more than 2 people willing to lynch me, do you? I'm motherfuckin Blazinghand, the best player on TL Mafia, Claimer Extraordinary and Intelligent, He Who Doesn't Always Make Cases, But When He Does He Doesn't, The Catcher of the Three, The RNG Lyncher of Odin. Can you mess with those titles? I think we both know you can't mess. Back down. It's over. It's always been over. A guy like you can't touch a guy like me. | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
On May 23 2014 05:35 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: What about JAT? He's listed on the player list And BH if you don't die tonight I'm going to consider that the equivalent of a scum claim. no you won't | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
On May 23 2014 05:39 sqrtofneg1 wrote: Yes, you are a good mafia player, but I don't like your attitude. I'm willing to lynch you. OK tell you what I'll roll another RNG and we'll lynch that guy ok + Show Spoiler + jk | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
On May 23 2014 05:41 marvellosity wrote: the vets who sheeped the Odin case look the worst actually seriously this though like, there are a lot of people who weirdly flipflopped without real reasons or against their stated reads on the deadline. There's a ton of info this lynch generated and sifting through it is probably the best way for each of us to spend this night | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
On May 23 2014 05:48 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: Actually yes I will. If you are somehow town I'd advise you to do as much work as you can to ensure that scum shoot you tonight. what do they need more reason than the fact that I'm Isaac? Apparently also Slam has some kind of role that confirms me, so I'm even more likely to be shot In any case, even if I'm not shot I'm like super popular and well-liked by everyone because i'm so good-looking and charismatic, so I'm not too worried | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
On May 23 2014 05:55 27ninjabunnies wrote: Hey would you look at that flip. I think Tamburini prob would have given more info than odin tbh. But whatevs. "I think tamb would have flipped scum" is the only real objection you could make, because that's the only thing that matters, but ALSO take a look at all that voting activity in the last 3-4 hours of the day. Tons of info | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
On May 23 2014 06:15 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: I actually have something to say on this subject as well. For starters, in order to find scum in the last second vote switches one of the leading candidates has to be scum, so in our case that means Val or Mtam. Now in a game this size, there are usually going to be several scummers who have been lurking along and are going to need to make up bad reasons for why they're not voting for the actual scum. This is where voting analysis usually catches them. However for this game, teams are likely gonna be a lot smaller which means that there will be less scum who are out cold and have to manufacture a reason to vote for the townie. So why do I bring this up? Because it's dangerous to make cases based solely off of voting patterns in this game. While I'm not clearing any of the people who flipped at the end, I'm saying the case against them needs to encompass more than just their vote. Also another reason I'm bringing this up is that a lot of people who are now trying to do analysis had expressed doubts to the scummyness of Val and Mtam so I'd like to remind them that in order to give scum a reason to last second switch, one of those two has to be red. You're absolutely right in terms of looking for first-layer scum motivation. With Val and Mtam on the block, we could expect someone swapping from one of them to Odin to be scum if and only if one of them was scum, if the goal of the swap is to protect a scumbuddy. Typically we'd distinguish this kind of swap by looking to see if it's consistent with what that person thinks or how they think, but ultimately this is the kind of associative tell we could only make after lynching val or mtam (and mtam looks like he is going to be a solid lynch choice tomorrow). So what can we do now, if we don't want to draw associative tells between unflipped players? After all, it's a cardinal sin of mafia to draw associative tells between unflipped players since any time you say "If mtamb is scum, X is scum" you are never more sure X is scum than you are that mtamb is scum-- by definition, associative reads between unflipped players are faulty. So what we do is, we look for what this tells us regardless of the alignment of mtamb and/or val. There are other things to look for. Imagine, for example, there were two lynch candidates, mtamb and Odin. Now, if Odin was town and mtamb was scum, we could look at swaps and understand if there were scum protecting buddies. But what if mtamb is town? Can those swaps mean something to us? Yes, they can. If mtamb is town and Odin is town, and you're scum and you want to maximize mislynches, let's say your'e on mtamb. Now, Odin isn't a realistic possibility. BH has been pushing some kind of wacky RNG lynch all day and it has very little traction outside of a few devout followers. Then, a few hours out from the lynch, BH writes a real case. People start flocking to it. Suddenly, Odin, who didn't seem like a realistic lynch candidate before, seems like a possibility. You start to think: Will Odin even be lynchable tomorrow? Might this be our only chance to lynch Odin? Mtamb can always be lynched later. Then Mtamb comes back into the thread and is saying weird things and peopel hate him for it. Scum thinks to himself, "yes, mtamb as town would always be lynchable. This is my only chance to lynch odin" and he swaps. So, regardless of mtamb's alignment, I think we can find scum in the swaps from mtamb to odin, if and only if the underlying reasoning leading up to the swap was bad or inconsistent with how the player was playing and thinking before. If Mtamb is scum or town, scum has a reason to lynch Odin first. Mtamb as scum wants to be saved; mtamb as town is a safe mislynch and Odin might only be mislynchable once. So, we do what we always do. We look for bad reasoning that doesn't reflect a town mindset, and we lynch those people. | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
On May 23 2014 06:28 Holyflare wrote: that's what i was doing before the lynch actually happened and you decided to not say anything about it whatever man you get the idea. I was busy telling haters that haters gonna hate | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
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