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Blazinghand
United States25558 Posts
On May 22 2014 05:13 Steveling wrote: BH since you know there have being games with core blue claims that turned out red after flip, why did you claim so early in the game? go do something anatomically surprising with yourself | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25558 Posts
On May 22 2014 05:14 Blazinghand wrote: go do something anatomically surprising with yourself To be more clear, because I don't want to be lynched, and my role still works fine as long as scum don't know the deets. You have to admit, it DID get people to unvote me, so it was a good move. Mid-D1 claim is imo a perfectly acceptable strat and use of a blue role. | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25558 Posts
On May 22 2014 05:16 geript wrote: I only unvoted you in order to vote for you scumbuddy Scumeling. And yet, here we are; I claimed midway through D1, I'm no longer being voted. It works every time. | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25558 Posts
On May 22 2014 04:56 austinmcc wrote: Kita later. BH I want to answer my dang question about what he thinks the use of RNG is. RNG is statistically speaking fairly likely to hit scum on D1, especially compared to your typical D1 lynch. In a 9-player game with 5 VT, 2 blues, 2 mafia, you've got a 2/7 chance of RNGing mafia (assuming you reroll on blues), which is like 30% chance of mafia lynch, compared with a 40% (i think it's probably lower than this but w/e) lynch rate for small minis. In a big game like this, it's very very hard to actually get a lynch together. Plurality is better than majority, but it has its own weaknesses. Scum can more subtly and easily push a counterwagon D1. Most D1 cases are kinda crappy anyways. I always have reads but never for like super clear reasons, only reasons I can compare to myself. An RNG lynch does a lot of stuff 1) it has a good chance of hitting scum 2) it guarantees discussion. 3) People think scum will just jump on the wagon, but historically scum don't jump on RNG wagons of townies so it's really not any more dangerous to town than it is to scum. 4) In this particular setup, with many factions, there are probably many more scum than there are usually. This means that RNG is even MORE likely to hit scum, and better, scum are less likely to actively oppose it if it's on scum (though they may opposite it anyway as an easy stance to take) since they aren't working together 5) also odinofpergo voted for me and didn't follow it up, didn't really try to get anyone to agree with him or lay out arguments, which makes it more likely he's scum (this is distinct from RNG) 6. Statistically speaking, it was bound to hit scum eventually, and it looks like this time it actually did. | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25558 Posts
On May 22 2014 05:26 austinmcc wrote: ninjaed (2) is why I ask, sorta. There's that stupid post somewhere from Palmar or Ace about why he's proposing RNG and what it's good for, and a bunch of the reason is that it can get people to take stances on the target ---> if RNG lands on mafia, who reacted weirdly, who is fighting RNG for bad reasons, blah blah. Along with just the general discussion. But in this game, even if there's more mafia TOTAL, which we don't know to be the case, there's less of any given team. Like...you're losing some value because it seems less likely you can DO something with the lynch. You think that purely spinning the wheel, even if we've lost some other value, is actually worthwhile? I'm not sure I understand what you mean by "value" but I "value" the fact that Odin is probably scum so we should lynch him | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25558 Posts
On May 22 2014 05:29 austinmcc wrote: The value of how A scumteam interacts with the RNG. We can lynch scum and have other possible scumteams be entirely on board here, less...associative value, less ability to read people as part of one team. This isn't QUITE spaghetti yet. No, I totally get that. People vastly underestimate the value of post-RNG lynch analysis. Think of it as a contrapositive to the zephirdd rule. It's got the same backbone of solid reasoning but the same honey-laced exterior that draws bad attacks. Wagon development for an RNG lynch doesn't need to be pure RNG. I'm sure there's plenty of people who want to lynch Odin now for reasons unrelated to RNG. When he gets lynched, some of them will mention or not mention RNG, and that gives us info. I'd go into more detail but I don't want to ruin it. Surely you can see what I see here, right? | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25558 Posts
The specific details of my blue claim I won't reveal until after N1 is over. I will tell you though, I am [blue]Isaac{/blue] | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25558 Posts
On May 22 2014 06:18 Alakaslam wrote: Oh an d BH before I am out if reception is there NK reason tambo is scum vs Odin or is it pure info for RNG? Sprint 1x three dot and expiring the loading circle is really slow I'm not voting for tambo, I'm voting for Odin. | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25558 Posts
On May 22 2014 06:28 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: Also BH, I need you to repeat after me "I am not as good at mafia as I think I am." MZ is not as good at mafia as he thinks he is. MZ is not as good at mafia as he thinks he is. MZ is not as good at mafia as he thinks he is.  | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25558 Posts
On May 22 2014 06:48 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: So I know out of game bets in order to advance an agenda are against the rules but can we have a bet on the outcome of an action in game? I'd like to have a sig bet, if you get Odin lynched (regardless of his alignment) I'll change my sig to whatever you want for a month but if you don't get Odin lynched you have to change your sig to "Vet status does not = god status: I am not as good at mafia as I think I am" for a month. Sound reasonable to you? It sounds reasonable if you vote Odin every day he's alive. | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25558 Posts
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Blazinghand
United States25558 Posts
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Blazinghand
United States25558 Posts
On May 22 2014 07:20 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: I can't be forced to vote for him, that'd break the rules of an outside bet influencing the game, but I agree to a draw if he's shot by the town. I will certainly vote him if I think he's scum which at the moment I think there are other people who I've previously discussed who are better choices. No deal then | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25558 Posts
Um, i'm fine with a draw if he's shot by scum btw but i'm not sure you understand how bets work. Like, how could you possibly win? 1. if he's lynched, I win 2. if he's shot by a vigi, draw 3. if he's shot by scum, also draw for some reason 4. ??? unless you really want to bet on him living to end game | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25558 Posts
I like it | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25558 Posts
On May 22 2014 07:52 Koshi wrote: I don't know why I am waiting on Layabout to explain his crazy talk. If it were meant to be explained, he would have already. | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25558 Posts
On May 22 2014 13:42 Cavalinho wrote: I believe it's a case of I couldn't be assed to do the research so take your townread and shut up. Whoa g man take a chill pill | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25558 Posts
On May 22 2014 13:45 BlueyD wrote: Here comes the master of rng... Willing to bet BH's blue claim is fake again. Steve I'd lynch you over both of these. Then vote me! It could be funnnnnn | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25558 Posts
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Blazinghand
United States25558 Posts
Glad u like it Brb dinner | ||
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