Resistance 3 - Page 5

raynpelikoneet

Finland43269 Posts

January 02 2014 20:25 GMT

#538

Koshi. This post:

On January 01 2014 05:15 Koshi wrote:
Hmm. Looks like rayn/Hopeless/Koshi has already passed with 5 votes if we got Sentinel vote of approval.

Who are the 5 people who will pass the mission and why at this point?

raynpelikoneet

Finland43269 Posts

January 02 2014 21:05 GMT

#541

VE what do you think of what i talked with Koshi earlier? Also who would you send right now if you were the leader?

raynpelikoneet

Finland43269 Posts

January 02 2014 21:11 GMT

#544

Hey Coag, if you're town we'd need 3 more townies for town victory. Who'd they be?

raynpelikoneet

Finland43269 Posts

January 02 2014 21:20 GMT

#547

Oh shit i totally forgot CR. I could not ffs find the fifth person that you were talking about and thought it could be scum communication.

I was trying to find something that makes sense from the thread after you made the case on VE and we talked about it and other stuff. I still can't understand why the hell suddenly after that, everyone just yay-votes the team with zero discussion. Even VE, who had you as a scumread and really the only thing you talked about was your case on him.

raynpelikoneet

Finland43269 Posts

January 02 2014 22:51 GMT

#564

Interesting. Please elaborate Grack.

raynpelikoneet

Finland43269 Posts

January 02 2014 23:01 GMT

#567

No that's not how the game works. If town passes mission 1 they have to only find 1 more townie in the next 2 missions to win, that's a pain in the ass for scum. Spies do not want to let the first mission go through at any cost if the have a slightest clue what they are doing.

raynpelikoneet

Finland43269 Posts

January 02 2014 23:15 GMT

#569

I honestly see no reason for CR to be town. The guy promised somehintg i thought was mindblowing on D2 based on his posts and all he came up with is "I am working on Cora & Hopeless scumteam".

raynpelikoneet

Finland43269 Posts

January 02 2014 23:45 GMT

#575

I have absolutely no idea how you come to that conclusion Grack.
Because Koshi voted yay on the first mission one of me/Hopeless is scum? What the fuck?

raynpelikoneet

Finland43269 Posts

January 03 2014 00:46 GMT

#580

On January 03 2014 09:06 Grackaroni wrote:

Show nested quote +

No what I am saying is that the first mission would have been sabotaged. There could easily be an Adam/Koshi scum team as well.

Basically one of you/hopeless/koshi has to be scum, and if it's not one of you/hopeless then Koshi is scum and he reversed his read on hopeless to upvote a team. Koshi wouldn't go out of his way as scum to help an all town team pass because, as you have previously stated, that is not how this game works.

Ahh okay, i get it now. Yes, i think it's a fair assumption. So what does that tell you?

raynpelikoneet

Finland43269 Posts

January 03 2014 09:21 GMT

#590

Right now i have a feeling that at least Hopeless is scum from the 1st mission. Here's my reasoning:

Hopeless' read on Koshi and Corazon and it's evolvement:

On December 30 2013 06:19 Hopeless1der wrote:

Show nested quote +

Yes, and I don't remember exactly why. Something about how he's trying to convert mafia knowledge to resistance knowledge and his appealing to veterans to guide the way for us made me think he had an idea of a plan that would push town in the right direction, even if he had nothing to do with finding that right direction.

Show nested quote +

There were points against koshi about how he wasnt trying to discern alignments. Cora is doing the same thing with Koshi, but worse, he's actively discrediting him. Koshi was assuming I just wouldnt post much and that sending me on a mission was a losing endeavor because even if we succeed you get little benefit from having me "confirmed" since I wouldn't do much with it. Cora is telling people to ignore Koshi because he's trolling too much and wont allow him a word in edgewise.

Show nested quote +

I think koshi is more likely to be town for thinking its a scumslip though, regardless of if there really is one.

@Rayn's question from list post

Show nested quote +

Probably a similar reason that Koshi was willing to consider Yay'ing VE's team if he commited to a townread on you: It was worth risking a failed mission to "confirm" a spy.

In my case, Adam was a statistical tossup as first leader. I looked at his suggesting-a-team post and thought it was more likely he was town than scum, but in the same breath second guessed myself into calling him null. I think I have a good read on you. If we failed our mission, I'd be convinced Adam was the spy. That information is worth the failed early mission to me.

This is when VE proposes his team. Hopeless reads Koshi as town for "some reason he does not remember". He also says Corazon is playing quite similarly to Koshi but that Cora is trying to discredit Koshi. This in itself is not alignment indicative (at least on scummy side) but watch on what happens next:

On December 30 2013 06:26 Hopeless1der wrote:
I didn't actually state my read of Cora: I'd call him a spy at the moment.

Show nested quote +

This felt way too easy of a +1 without any critical thought behind it. I didn't like this post. Combined with associative I think Koshi is town -> Therefore Cora scum.

Associative read that makes no sense this way. You can make associative reads (and in Resistance you have to) but they work another way around, if someone is scum you can deduce someone else must be town (is some cases). You however can't say someone is town - therefore someone is scum, as townies accuse each other all the time.

This is also a clarification on Hopeless' read on Koshi/Cora, and it gives him a reason to nay-vote VE's team.

Later on Hopeless calls VE scum (that's something i don't find relevant in this case though, but worth mentioning) and again says he found Cora scummy for other reasons than association with Koshi. He never explains those reasons fully.

Then there is some back and forth with Hopeless/Corazon where they call each other scum for stupid reasons. Nothing alignment indicative there imo.

Team VE fails, and Koshi becomes a leader and starts discussing his team. Now here is an important post:

On January 01 2014 07:00 Hopeless1der wrote:
So guys...rayn/cora/hopeless

Who needs convincing?

This is BEFORE Koshi has chosen his team. Hopeless has already taken a stance where Cora is town and Koshi is (apparently?) not. Or both Koshi and Cora are town? I really don't know what to think. The important piece of information to be drawn is Hopeless already knows where this is going (most likely to a team him/rayn/Koshi), it's quite evident he is already playing the next phase in case the team goes through, and when a sabotage happens.

Think about it. On D3 (in case Koshi's educatedly guessed team Koshi/Hopeless/rayn goes on a mission) Hopeless needs someone to be scum. That someone needs to be rayn/Koshi. I think it's obvious he is pre-emptively trying to cover all bases and his future thought process, otherwise this sudden change of mind on Koshi<->Cora read makes no sense as Cora's posting hasn't changed one bit from what it has been all game. Cora's reads have not changed, Cora's posting style has not chaged, there is no reason Hopeless should consider him any townier than before at this point.

On January 01 2014 07:39 Hopeless1der wrote:
Cora's brain can't seem to handle the possibility that someone considers him scum. But he's probably town. And a self-centered drama queen.

And again, before the mission. Why?

This is during the voting phase:

On January 02 2014 08:47 Hopeless1der wrote:
add cora for flawless victory grack

Both Koshi and Corazon are town. I can only ask why? Hopeless has never explained this change of heart in his reads on these fellas and in the first place the read was moslty based on association. When this association no longer benefits him ti's completely dropped.

After the mission fails Hopeless posts (as assumed) this:

On January 03 2014 06:21 Hopeless1der wrote:

Show nested quote +

I conclude Koshi is the spy.

He has concluded Koshi is spy. Why? There is no explanation, just a quote of my post. Does he have a stronger town read on me? If so, why?

TLDR;
Why i think Hopeless is a spy:

Throughout the game he has a lot of unexplained reads (mainly Koshi and Corazon)
His reasoning for his read on Corazon changes without real reasoning and pre-emptively in a manner that can only be explained from spy perspective
Him townreading me over Koshi is weird and does not really make sense as it seems like he hasn't never really given any thought on those reads. Before Koshi's mission Hopeless was pretty sure about Koshi being town and he just said "rayn needs to go on 1st mission" without really having a read on me at all, or explaining it. It seems like he's just having me as a strong townie to buddy with and therefore blame the sabotage on Koshi.

raynpelikoneet

Finland43269 Posts

January 03 2014 09:31 GMT

#591

Holy fucking shit.
This just struck me:

Team 2
Current Leader: VisceraEyes

Current Vote Count:
Koshi: Nay
Hopeless1der: Nay
Corazon: Yay
[UoN]Sentinel: Yay
Chairman Ray: Yay
Adam4167: Nay
VisceraEyes: Yay
Grackaroni: Nay
raynpelikoneet: Not voting *said he would nay*

Team: VisceraEyes, [UoN]Sentinel, Corazon

Can it be this easy?

raynpelikoneet

Finland43269 Posts

January 03 2014 09:33 GMT

#592

This would make perfect sense given Grackaroni is attacking me after Koshi's mission based on "gut feeling". After fail mission it's better for scum to attack different people, as you don't even care if one of your teammates get bussed as you wanna have eggs in every basket.

I have no idea why Grackaroni would attack me after Koshi's mission with literally no reasoning unless he is spy.

raynpelikoneet

Finland43269 Posts

January 03 2014 09:41 GMT

#594

Well why don't you tell then what makes more sense, preferrably with something to back that up..

raynpelikoneet

Finland43269 Posts

January 03 2014 09:51 GMT

#596

On January 03 2014 18:45 Grackaroni wrote:
I don't really get what you are saying in the first place. Sentinel is trying to get me off the mission and it makes sense for scum to spread their targets so he must be scum. Doesn't that make perfect sense?

For one thing you assume that the majority of townies are derps and upvoted the first mission which would have been a sabotage. You also assume that I forced Adam to down vote a passing mission for the fuck of it.

Having 2 scum on 1st mission has it's advantages and disadvantages. Having 1 scum however is easier to play off in case you do not know how to play it after that. I don't think up/down-voting the first (Adam's) mission has a lot to do with alignments in a sense that i don't think all scum were on the same side (as in voting yay or nay).

Or what exactly are you trying to say?

raynpelikoneet

Finland43269 Posts

January 03 2014 10:01 GMT

#598

There is a difference because i don't think Koshi's mission had 2 scum and Adam's had.

raynpelikoneet

Finland43269 Posts

January 03 2014 10:01 GMT

#599

Adam was basically forced to pick the team he picked in case he wanted to pick himself. That's quite obvious if you look at the thread at that time.

raynpelikoneet

Finland43269 Posts

January 03 2014 10:09 GMT

#601

On January 03 2014 19:05 Grackaroni wrote:

Show nested quote +

And I would have picked Hopeless/Koshi if Koshi's mission got passed over.

You mean rejected? It's irrelevant what you say you would have picked because it didn't happen. Anyone can say anything they "would do" if something that didn't happen would have happened. That's not really good reasoning.

raynpelikoneet

Finland43269 Posts

January 03 2014 10:18 GMT

#604

Well Mr.Grackaroni, explain this:

On December 27 2013 21:48 Grackaroni wrote:
Adam/Hopeless/Rayn sounds pretty good.

Nothing here suggests a change in your reads.

Grackaroni: Nay

raynpelikoneet

Finland43269 Posts

January 03 2014 10:22 GMT

#605

Because let's be honest here. I was easily the towniest person in thread when Adam chose his team. I pressured him to tell me what team he would pick in case he had to pick it instantly (before he picked the team). Nobody made good posts after that and at that moment he had a strong(?) townread on Hopeless.

What exactly were his chances of changing his mind after giving me his team proposition of him/me/Hopeless as noone posts townie stuff unless he wants to out himself in case he is scum?

raynpelikoneet

Finland43269 Posts

January 03 2014 10:29 GMT

#608

On January 03 2014 19:26 Grackaroni wrote:

Show nested quote +

Why was he giving a town read on hopeless in the first place if he is so strongly against putting 2 scum on the mission?

Because i pressured him to tell me who would he pick now in case he had to. Jesus, are you not reading at all?
Hopeless' posting was also really good during the time it was Adam's mission pick.

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