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TL Mafia LXIV: A Game of Intrigue - Page 3

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Aquanim
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia2849 Posts
January 12 2014 23:17 GMT
#1463
EBWOP: the PMs are in this post.
Aquanim
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia2849 Posts
January 12 2014 23:23 GMT
#1469
On January 13 2014 08:17 marvellosity wrote:
When was that Aqua? In relation to mason incident + when VE voted me mayor?

It was... after the mason incident and before VE voted you mayor (in the vote thread anyway, since that happened just a couple of hours ago. If he made a "vote" in this thread I haven't seen it.)
Aquanim
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia2849 Posts
January 12 2014 23:31 GMT
#1479
On January 13 2014 08:20 marvellosity wrote:
There is something so off between WoS and VE.

WoS said to me that VE and him agreed on "practically everything"

but if VE's reads were me/mocsta, then Wave didn't mention being suspicious of either when he spoke to me.

It's all very weird

In that case I'd be interested to know which reads VE gave to WoS.
Aquanim
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia2849 Posts
January 12 2014 23:36 GMT
#1483
On January 13 2014 08:30 Alakaslam wrote:
Wait...


I asked him, and he hasn't replied.


K.

Guess what VE? You have some pm stuff to do.

Alak, is there a message you sent him at the end left out of that chain?
Aquanim
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia2849 Posts
January 13 2014 00:00 GMT
#1512
I'm less okay with Xatalos than VE but I certainly wouldn't lynch Marv for either.
Aquanim
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia2849 Posts
January 13 2014 00:08 GMT
#1525
looks like you made the right call, despite my reservations
Aquanim
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia2849 Posts
January 13 2014 00:14 GMT
#1533
On January 13 2014 09:10 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
who went off defending xatalos, im busy on mobile but ill comb those filters tonight and see what i come up with.

I raised some issues I had with the xatalos lynch privately with marv, namely:

1) the original meta read about Xatalos second-guessing his reads as scum applied equally well to his town games
2) on glancing over his meta he seemed more aggressive in his scumreads than here

I can post the logs if you like, or you can get them from marv or myself privately
Aquanim
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia2849 Posts
January 13 2014 00:15 GMT
#1534
EBWOP: "on glancing over his meta he seemed more aggressive in his scumgames than here"
Aquanim
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia2849 Posts
January 13 2014 00:22 GMT
#1541
On January 13 2014 09:18 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 13 2014 09:14 Aquanim wrote:
On January 13 2014 09:10 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
who went off defending xatalos, im busy on mobile but ill comb those filters tonight and see what i come up with.

I raised some issues I had with the xatalos lynch privately with marv, namely:

1) the original meta read about Xatalos second-guessing his reads as scum applied equally well to his town games
2) on glancing over his meta he seemed more aggressive in his scumreads than here

I can post the logs if you like, or you can get them from marv or myself privately

those weren't the main points to me i think the way he went down attacking me over pm logs that happened a day before he said anything was the worst bit

Like I said I wasn't against the Xatalos lynch overall, just dubious about a couple of the points raised - which made me more dubious overall about it than the VE lynch, which seemed like a slam-dunk. Hell, it still is.
Aquanim
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia2849 Posts
January 13 2014 09:00 GMT
#1639
On January 13 2014 17:51 suchdoge wrote:
I would bet a lot of money that neither Mig nor thrawn are scum, Yamato.

I err on the side of bum not being scum too.

VE is almost unequivocally scum, and WoS is probably scum with him. Of the remaining players it's likely that a newer player is also scum. Chinstrap fits. (I personally want to give the LSB banking guy a bit to come forth with more reads that aren't from his pre-replacement notes).

The only other players that are worth a look are BC, gumshoe, and potentially JAT mocsta Coag.

The last three I put at unlikely but without having really talked with them or having heard of them through PMs I'm not anywhere near as confident on them being town as some others.

WoS posted a bunch of PM logs he has with VE into the thread, what about them makes you think they're fabricated between two scum? Is there anything besides the "I could probably get Helvetica lynched with this PM"?
Aquanim
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia2849 Posts
January 13 2014 09:21 GMT
#1643
Hmph. Well, most of my reads this game have had the addenum (spoken or not) of "this person might be playing in PMs instead" which introduces uncertainty - hence why I haven't been as confident in my reads in this game as I've been in the past. Also, simply by reason of there being so many more people to look at in a large game compared to a mini my effort per player has necessarily been less.

And as to why I haven't posted in the thread for two hours - I didn't have anything which I felt needed to be said. It's night-phase, what do you expect?
Aquanim
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia2849 Posts
January 13 2014 09:39 GMT
#1647
On January 13 2014 18:25 suchdoge wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 13 2014 18:21 Aquanim wrote:
Hmph. Well, most of my reads this game have had the addenum (spoken or not) of "this person might be playing in PMs instead" which introduces uncertainty - hence why I haven't been as confident in my reads in this game as I've been in the past. Also, simply by reason of there being so many more people to look at in a large game compared to a mini my effort per player has necessarily been less.

And as to why I haven't posted in the thread for two hours - I didn't have anything which I felt needed to be said. It's night-phase, what do you expect?

Can you get on Skype? I want to chat.

Make a new account if you have to please.

No, sorry. I could make a QT and send it to you though (not sure what the delays on you getting PMs are but I hope you get them eventually?).
Aquanim
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia2849 Posts
January 13 2014 10:10 GMT
#1662
Well, besides asserting that I'm town and I wrote that PM, I don't think I have anything to contribute to that argument.

@JAT: Do you think I'm the best lynch tomorrow? If not, who do you think is? Give your reasons too, please.
Aquanim
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia2849 Posts
January 13 2014 10:36 GMT
#1667
On January 13 2014 19:23 justanothertownie wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 13 2014 18:06 thrawn2112 wrote:
Aquanim

+ Show Spoiler [thread] +
On January 12 2014 11:16 Aquanim wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 12 2014 11:08 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
let's talk about how derrida is scum

Yeah, OK.

Reasons to think he's scum:
list post, but that's a heuristic in which I have only limited confidence
bases his mayoral preferences first on "enjoying reading their filter because it is srs" and second his read on them

Reasons to think he's town:
I got nuffin, but I do have...

Reasons I'm not certain yet:
he has like 2 posts and being a newbie his thinking about "is this relevant to whether they should be mayor or not" probably isn't expected to be entirely accurate whatever his alignment

tl;dr I'm not certain he's scum but he's a reasonable guess

P.S. will go meta him now re. Marv's statement



On January 12 2014 11:35 Aquanim wrote:

All I see in justanothertownie's two-page filter is kinda pointless oneliners in which he commits to almost nothing. For all I know he's doing work in PMs, but based on his thread presence so far he's another possible scum for me.


On January 12 2014 19:36 Aquanim wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 12 2014 19:20 raynpelikoneet wrote:
On January 12 2014 19:05 Aquanim wrote:
On January 12 2014 18:59 raynpelikoneet wrote:
So do you think this is unreasonable? This is about your reads post i talked about earlier:
<VisceraEyes> I don't really like it - his problem with Obvious is something obvious, and his problem with justanothertownie is that he's acting like justanother townie. And he complains about lurkers.
<VisceraEyes> But what I really don't like about it is that he later asks me what I think of it...as if I should already be aware of his stance on justanothertownie, when he states quite literally that those reads are about as firm as his null read of someone else.

Well. I gave my problems with Captain Obvious the thread space they deserved, which was about a sentence. It's not like I'm screaming for a policy lynch of him - just gave my opinion of him.

And why shouldn't VE be aware of my stance on justanothertownie? The conclusion of my clash with JAT is literally on the same page as where I asked him that question. Is he not reading the thread or something?

For that matter, why shouldn't I ask VE for his opinion on a read I'm pushing?

I question the purpose of VE raising any of those points.

Because you don't really have a stance. You call JAT out for not posting reads. Why is JAT a scumread when about 80% of the game has not posted a single read?

JAT had clearly been present for a fair bit of the game but hadn't done anything which seemed like he was even interested in looking for scum.

If PM evidence is presented which shows he was looking for scum in that way I will reconsider my read. If ya'll reckon that JAT not looking for scum is his standard town meta I will (disgustedly) move him to null.


--note-- i don't believe aqua has followed up on this read at all

On January 12 2014 21:34 Aquanim wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 12 2014 21:23 marvellosity wrote:
On January 12 2014 18:36 Aquanim wrote:
On January 12 2014 18:28 raynpelikoneet wrote:
On January 12 2014 18:22 Aquanim wrote:
On January 12 2014 18:16 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I do, do you have any reason for calling people out for making general statements and then following it up with statements like:

"And then there's the eight or so other lurkers."
and
"Of the active players I reckon at least most are town."

??

Well for starters I'd appreciate it if you say where I "called people out for making general statements". I remember calling JAT out for "having no commitments regarding any reads at all in his entire filter" which is not at all the same thing.

Also, everybody makes some general statements, including me. I've also made some not-general statements. What exactly is your point?

I also can't help but notice that you haven't really answered my question. Would you care to correct that?

Interesting. I don't see a single clear read from you in thread. If there is some, could you point me out to one? All i see you say about other people is "they might be town or scum". And yes i answered your question. You asked me if i have a reason to think VE is town and i said i do.

Do you have a reason to think VE is mafia?

I think JAT is much more likely to be scum than town, for the reasons stated earlier - namely that he didn't seem to have any reads, even when I pushed him for it. I've seen the PMs Thrawn referenced here and I find JAT's reads there entirely unconvincing, just some lacklustre one-liners. Derrida moderately more likely to be scum than town, but that could change fast since his filter really doesn't have much to go on yet.

And yes, I have a reason to think VE is mafia. There, see? Two of us can play that game.

As a FYI, bugs kinda laid into jat in Quiet game for "having no reads" while he was alive, both in-game and post-game.

Surprised you didn't notice this given you hosted it? Or take this into account at all into your read...?

##vote: marvellosity

It would be an easy playstyle to replicate if he's scum. At worst, if he's town I have hopefully communicated to him that he should have reads and make them public to convince us all of his alignment. If he does that I am quite willing to be persuaded that I am incorrect in my present read, if that is in fact the case.


+ Show Spoiler [PMs] +
"As for WoS, my read is like I said - gut says town, can't find any actual reads he's made so I'm having difficulty substantiating it, and I don't know him well enough to guess whether this raging is characteristic of his town or scum game. I've PMd him to see if he actually has reads he was too mad to post or not - starting with exactly why he thinks VE is town."

"Also, about Gumshoe: putting himself forward as a mayoral candidate put him in the spotlight some so it'd be a ballsy scum move but he's done absolutely nothing since. The following post is a pretty half-assed way to support a Xata lynch. How seriously are you considering him? I'm currently at "if he does nothing significant tomorrow he's a decent lynch"."

"I don't really know a whole lot about Koshi except that I think he's usually more active and more proactive than this. On that basis I'm leaning scum, but I think what this should really mean is "I should go talk to Koshi and find out what he's actually thinking"."

"well he's not posted since I talked about him in the thread. In short, there's nothing about him I find towny and have no objections to seeing him hang, but due to the sheer shortness of his filter there's not enough material for me to be certain. "

"My recollection of what I've seen from justanothertownie in the past is that this isn't *quite* unbelieveable as his towngame, I don't remember him ever having much in the way of strong/accurate/confident reads and pushing them.

Reading those PMs it certainly doesn't feel like he's put a great deal of effort into his reads, but I'm not 100% certain that makes him scum - I've long since ceased to be amazed at the failure of townies to put effort into games. He's certainly jumped up to the top of my scummy list though."

"Leaning scum on Rayn since he hasn't claimed that Mocsta is scum for the clusterf*** between the two of them. Blatant OMGUS is basically all Rayn does as town, isn't it? (based on BttB anyway)

Then again the sheer derpiness which Rayn is exhibiting is a towny indication generally from him. "Talking about reads in PMs is anti-town"... is he drunk or something? Basically I don't want to try to read Rayn because either way reading his posts will pain me.

Mocsta's trolly play is bizarre and not really typical of him, but I think I'll have a chat with him privately. Either he's scum and just trying to shit up the thread or he has some motivation for inciting Rayn, I could believe either. Or maybe he's drunk too.

Kush seems moderately towny but not really enough to judge yet. "


Town Aquanim from BttB

The differences should be pretty obvious. Aquanim is clearly player who as town (which he's always rolled previously) likes to put a lot of thought into his reads and effort into his posts. He's doing neither of those this game. His explanations for reads only go surface deep, and many of his reads follow the pattern of "maybe this, maybe that, and here's an out for my future self." He doesn't screw around like that as town. He thinks through a problem, and comes to a conclusion which he clearly states. I've been having trouble getting firm reads out of him for much of the game, and when he considers a person's alignment he only takes small portions of their play into account. This is not the thoughtful town Aquanim that I've played with.

I also want to mention that I've been in PM contact with him since 15:40 KST, roughly two hours ago and he has not posted in the thread during that time. I'm fairly sure that I noticed this happening earlier in the game. His thread presence is non-existent, but since that is the case with so many likely-townies because of PMs I'd like to hear if any of you have PM'd him enough to get a read on him.

Am I the only one who has issues with some of those reads?
Even if I put his read on me aside there are problems here:
He states that the only things gumshoe has done were townie - is ok lynching him.
He states Koshi has done nothing townie - true. But Koshi did play like that in recent games and I somehow doubt he would play this blatantly scummy if he was indeed scum. Ok, maybe Aquanim didn't follow those games.
But the kicker is this rayn read. Holy shit.
No, OMGUS is not the thing rayn does at all. I basically fought with rayn for half of the PYP really hard and he still had a townread on me for almost the whole game as far as I know. And I totally agree that discussing reads in pm while maybe helping to figure the specific person out prevents other players from reaching conclusions and isn't that helpful for town as a whole. This seems like a really weak cop out to not have to face rayn and/or his reads.


Okay then. You've misrepresented my statement on Gumshoe - what I actually said was "what he's done so far is townie, but if what he's done so far is ALL he does then it won't be enough to stop me scum-reading him for being useless" (put more explicitly here to prevent misunderstanding).

As for rayn, if you think my view is groundless I guess you didn't read Back to the Basics, which is my only first-hand experience with him.

I'm going to recast my question to you very simply.

Do you think I am the best lynch tomorrow or not?
Aquanim
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia2849 Posts
January 13 2014 10:39 GMT
#1669
On January 13 2014 19:37 justanothertownie wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 13 2014 19:36 Aquanim wrote:
On January 13 2014 19:23 justanothertownie wrote:
On January 13 2014 18:06 thrawn2112 wrote:
Aquanim

+ Show Spoiler [thread] +
On January 12 2014 11:16 Aquanim wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 12 2014 11:08 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
let's talk about how derrida is scum

Yeah, OK.

Reasons to think he's scum:
list post, but that's a heuristic in which I have only limited confidence
bases his mayoral preferences first on "enjoying reading their filter because it is srs" and second his read on them

Reasons to think he's town:
I got nuffin, but I do have...

Reasons I'm not certain yet:
he has like 2 posts and being a newbie his thinking about "is this relevant to whether they should be mayor or not" probably isn't expected to be entirely accurate whatever his alignment

tl;dr I'm not certain he's scum but he's a reasonable guess

P.S. will go meta him now re. Marv's statement



On January 12 2014 11:35 Aquanim wrote:

All I see in justanothertownie's two-page filter is kinda pointless oneliners in which he commits to almost nothing. For all I know he's doing work in PMs, but based on his thread presence so far he's another possible scum for me.


On January 12 2014 19:36 Aquanim wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 12 2014 19:20 raynpelikoneet wrote:
On January 12 2014 19:05 Aquanim wrote:
On January 12 2014 18:59 raynpelikoneet wrote:
So do you think this is unreasonable? This is about your reads post i talked about earlier:
<VisceraEyes> I don't really like it - his problem with Obvious is something obvious, and his problem with justanothertownie is that he's acting like justanother townie. And he complains about lurkers.
<VisceraEyes> But what I really don't like about it is that he later asks me what I think of it...as if I should already be aware of his stance on justanothertownie, when he states quite literally that those reads are about as firm as his null read of someone else.

Well. I gave my problems with Captain Obvious the thread space they deserved, which was about a sentence. It's not like I'm screaming for a policy lynch of him - just gave my opinion of him.

And why shouldn't VE be aware of my stance on justanothertownie? The conclusion of my clash with JAT is literally on the same page as where I asked him that question. Is he not reading the thread or something?

For that matter, why shouldn't I ask VE for his opinion on a read I'm pushing?

I question the purpose of VE raising any of those points.

Because you don't really have a stance. You call JAT out for not posting reads. Why is JAT a scumread when about 80% of the game has not posted a single read?

JAT had clearly been present for a fair bit of the game but hadn't done anything which seemed like he was even interested in looking for scum.

If PM evidence is presented which shows he was looking for scum in that way I will reconsider my read. If ya'll reckon that JAT not looking for scum is his standard town meta I will (disgustedly) move him to null.


--note-- i don't believe aqua has followed up on this read at all

On January 12 2014 21:34 Aquanim wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 12 2014 21:23 marvellosity wrote:
On January 12 2014 18:36 Aquanim wrote:
On January 12 2014 18:28 raynpelikoneet wrote:
On January 12 2014 18:22 Aquanim wrote:
On January 12 2014 18:16 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I do, do you have any reason for calling people out for making general statements and then following it up with statements like:

"And then there's the eight or so other lurkers."
and
"Of the active players I reckon at least most are town."

??

Well for starters I'd appreciate it if you say where I "called people out for making general statements". I remember calling JAT out for "having no commitments regarding any reads at all in his entire filter" which is not at all the same thing.

Also, everybody makes some general statements, including me. I've also made some not-general statements. What exactly is your point?

I also can't help but notice that you haven't really answered my question. Would you care to correct that?

Interesting. I don't see a single clear read from you in thread. If there is some, could you point me out to one? All i see you say about other people is "they might be town or scum". And yes i answered your question. You asked me if i have a reason to think VE is town and i said i do.

Do you have a reason to think VE is mafia?

I think JAT is much more likely to be scum than town, for the reasons stated earlier - namely that he didn't seem to have any reads, even when I pushed him for it. I've seen the PMs Thrawn referenced here and I find JAT's reads there entirely unconvincing, just some lacklustre one-liners. Derrida moderately more likely to be scum than town, but that could change fast since his filter really doesn't have much to go on yet.

And yes, I have a reason to think VE is mafia. There, see? Two of us can play that game.

As a FYI, bugs kinda laid into jat in Quiet game for "having no reads" while he was alive, both in-game and post-game.

Surprised you didn't notice this given you hosted it? Or take this into account at all into your read...?

##vote: marvellosity

It would be an easy playstyle to replicate if he's scum. At worst, if he's town I have hopefully communicated to him that he should have reads and make them public to convince us all of his alignment. If he does that I am quite willing to be persuaded that I am incorrect in my present read, if that is in fact the case.


+ Show Spoiler [PMs] +
"As for WoS, my read is like I said - gut says town, can't find any actual reads he's made so I'm having difficulty substantiating it, and I don't know him well enough to guess whether this raging is characteristic of his town or scum game. I've PMd him to see if he actually has reads he was too mad to post or not - starting with exactly why he thinks VE is town."

"Also, about Gumshoe: putting himself forward as a mayoral candidate put him in the spotlight some so it'd be a ballsy scum move but he's done absolutely nothing since. The following post is a pretty half-assed way to support a Xata lynch. How seriously are you considering him? I'm currently at "if he does nothing significant tomorrow he's a decent lynch"."

"I don't really know a whole lot about Koshi except that I think he's usually more active and more proactive than this. On that basis I'm leaning scum, but I think what this should really mean is "I should go talk to Koshi and find out what he's actually thinking"."

"well he's not posted since I talked about him in the thread. In short, there's nothing about him I find towny and have no objections to seeing him hang, but due to the sheer shortness of his filter there's not enough material for me to be certain. "

"My recollection of what I've seen from justanothertownie in the past is that this isn't *quite* unbelieveable as his towngame, I don't remember him ever having much in the way of strong/accurate/confident reads and pushing them.

Reading those PMs it certainly doesn't feel like he's put a great deal of effort into his reads, but I'm not 100% certain that makes him scum - I've long since ceased to be amazed at the failure of townies to put effort into games. He's certainly jumped up to the top of my scummy list though."

"Leaning scum on Rayn since he hasn't claimed that Mocsta is scum for the clusterf*** between the two of them. Blatant OMGUS is basically all Rayn does as town, isn't it? (based on BttB anyway)

Then again the sheer derpiness which Rayn is exhibiting is a towny indication generally from him. "Talking about reads in PMs is anti-town"... is he drunk or something? Basically I don't want to try to read Rayn because either way reading his posts will pain me.

Mocsta's trolly play is bizarre and not really typical of him, but I think I'll have a chat with him privately. Either he's scum and just trying to shit up the thread or he has some motivation for inciting Rayn, I could believe either. Or maybe he's drunk too.

Kush seems moderately towny but not really enough to judge yet. "


Town Aquanim from BttB

The differences should be pretty obvious. Aquanim is clearly player who as town (which he's always rolled previously) likes to put a lot of thought into his reads and effort into his posts. He's doing neither of those this game. His explanations for reads only go surface deep, and many of his reads follow the pattern of "maybe this, maybe that, and here's an out for my future self." He doesn't screw around like that as town. He thinks through a problem, and comes to a conclusion which he clearly states. I've been having trouble getting firm reads out of him for much of the game, and when he considers a person's alignment he only takes small portions of their play into account. This is not the thoughtful town Aquanim that I've played with.

I also want to mention that I've been in PM contact with him since 15:40 KST, roughly two hours ago and he has not posted in the thread during that time. I'm fairly sure that I noticed this happening earlier in the game. His thread presence is non-existent, but since that is the case with so many likely-townies because of PMs I'd like to hear if any of you have PM'd him enough to get a read on him.

Am I the only one who has issues with some of those reads?
Even if I put his read on me aside there are problems here:
He states that the only things gumshoe has done were townie - is ok lynching him.
He states Koshi has done nothing townie - true. But Koshi did play like that in recent games and I somehow doubt he would play this blatantly scummy if he was indeed scum. Ok, maybe Aquanim didn't follow those games.
But the kicker is this rayn read. Holy shit.
No, OMGUS is not the thing rayn does at all. I basically fought with rayn for half of the PYP really hard and he still had a townread on me for almost the whole game as far as I know. And I totally agree that discussing reads in pm while maybe helping to figure the specific person out prevents other players from reaching conclusions and isn't that helpful for town as a whole. This seems like a really weak cop out to not have to face rayn and/or his reads.


Okay then. You've misrepresented my statement on Gumshoe - what I actually said was "what he's done so far is townie, but if what he's done so far is ALL he does then it won't be enough to stop me scum-reading him for being useless" (put more explicitly here to prevent misunderstanding).

As for rayn, if you think my view is groundless I guess you didn't read Back to the Basics, which is my only first-hand experience with him.

I'm going to recast my question to you very simply.

Do you think I am the best lynch tomorrow or not?

You seem like a decent lynch, yes.

That wasn't the question I asked. "Decent" isn't the same thing as "best".

I want you to say, one way or the other, whether you think at this time there are NO other people in the game who are more likely to flip scum than me.
Aquanim
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia2849 Posts
January 13 2014 10:57 GMT
#1673
On January 13 2014 19:54 justanothertownie wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 13 2014 19:48 raynpelikoneet wrote:
On January 13 2014 19:33 justanothertownie wrote:
On January 13 2014 19:17 raynpelikoneet wrote:
On January 13 2014 19:04 Mocsta wrote:
The problem I have with Aquanim is he is suspicious to me (at times) in a "dont wear pants on head type of way"; nothing has struck me as promoting scum agenda.

It's the way he posts. He has really good posts. Especially lately.

For example?

Being suspicious of you, because you had a hard time getting reads cos everyone was in PM's. Now we have a scum flip and you are still not getting anything out of it.

How does being suspicious of me before the flip make him look good then? But you are actually right. I didn't really go back to what Xatalos said yet and should probably do that asap.

I (and everyone else, I imagine) would like to know what conclusions you draw from connections to Xatalos.
Aquanim
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia2849 Posts
January 13 2014 12:01 GMT
#1699
so, what I see looking over Xatalos' filter in terms of association:

comments about BH and gumshoe mayor campaigns aren't alignment-indicative.

jumping all over Alakaslam could be some scum plan because he knew Alak would have an answer, but I doubt it

In his first long post of reads he has a problem with BH (presumably town), me, mkfuba/Coag and suchdoge. I'm inclined to guess this points towards coag and doge being town. He didn't really commit hard to any of the four reads so he could have plausibly snuck a scumbuddy in as well, but I think it's less likely.

Regarding his disagreement with DrH about the PMs they sent between one another, I don't think it was prearranged. Either DocH is town and they had a misunderstanding, or DocH is scum and they goofed talking about the PMs they'd allegedly sent between one another then tried to cover it up. Definitely leaning towards the former explanation.

Doubt his vote for yamato as mayor is alignment-indicative on Yamato much, could see this happening whatever Yamato's alignment.

in the PM conversations the only people who seem to have actually replied to him are myself and Thrawn, both of whom I have confidence are town anyway. Nothing to see here.

He brought up the fact that VE didn't reply to PMs a couple of times but that could just as easily be distancing. Null.

tl;dr no smoking guns so I lost interest.
Aquanim
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia2849 Posts
January 13 2014 13:27 GMT
#1702
On January 13 2014 22:22 Koshi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 13 2014 21:01 Aquanim wrote:

In his first long post of reads he has a problem with BH (presumably town), me, mkfuba/Coag and suchdoge. I'm inclined to guess this points towards coag and doge being town. He didn't really commit hard to any of the four reads so he could have plausibly snuck a scumbuddy in as well, but I think it's less likely.

Why is it unlikely in theory?

On the simplest possible level, a mafia player is unlikely to put suspicion on other mafia players because he doesn't want them to be lynched, unless he has a reason to do so. Xatalos had no pressing reason to be bussing at that point in time.

It's possible that, knowing that, he would instead choose to publicly suspect his scumbuddies to exploit the above logic. This is a more complicated possibility and therefore somewhat less likely, but not by any means impossible.

This is a pretty simple answer to a pretty simple question.
Aquanim
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia2849 Posts
January 13 2014 13:32 GMT
#1705
On January 13 2014 22:28 marvellosity wrote:
Xatalos bussed like a mofo in his last two mafia games before this one

Hmm. Well in that case I suppose the balance of probability shifts towards one of them being mafia. Still though, it's nothing I'd choose as the basis as a read on either of them.
Aquanim
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia2849 Posts
January 13 2014 13:34 GMT
#1706
EBWOP: To rephrase: maybe one of the people on that list is scum but I'm not gonna work it out by staring at this post
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