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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
as per my diagram: when who you would lynch based on scum reads coincides with who you would lynch based on policy, it's not hard to become stuck or tunneled on the player in question. I chose not to interact with him because he was spamming the thread and came off unwilling to listen to reason. anyone who confronted him HAD to be scum (see JJD, Mocsta). if you look back around page 30 or so (sorry I'm on my phone) when he jumps on me for having bad priorities, I try to engage and talk with him, but he just peaces out and goes to bed. whatever, it's 6am in Finland, I'm annoyed but willing to let that slide...but when he comes back the next day, there's no attempt to analyze anything I've said or have a dialogue with me. he rides in on his high horse, calls everything bullshit, and insults/points his finger everywhere, clogging up the thread with what appears to be no more than 5 second long analysis. IF(PLAYER THINKS IM SCUM, THEN HE'S SCUM, ELSE TOWN). it's like when you see a dangerous and crazy looking person in the street shouting at passerbys and you veer off course to walk around them. do you find it hard to see why I had no intention of interacting with him? in my mind, it was a good and fair lynch up till about 8pm EST (2 hours before the deadline) when my town reads came back into the thread and voiced misgivings about the lynch choice and it became clear Rean was lurking and Onegu, Jampi were all absent. in retrospect, I should've stepped back and worked with them to find a better 2nd candidate, but (and this is where the 3rd circle of that Venn diagram comes into play) when it's close to the deadline and the person I'm tunneled on getting lynched is within grasp, it's hard to take a step back and rethink my stance. its like dangling something a toddler wants within arm's reach - it was hard for me to look away and reevaluate whether there was a better option further away across the room, and to change course so last minute seemed to put heavily risk a no lunch and put our consolidation into jeopardy. with hindsight obviously I don't think it was a good lynch. but I do not think that it was an unfair lynch given the information available. I think the fact that you did not need to be persuaded to vote rayn implies that you agree, no? as a final point, yours and scib's defense rested purely on "rayn could do this as town". I'm fine with analysis without meta or analysis with meta, but the defense of rayn read to me as pure meta without analysis, which I found weak. maybe that's not how you guys intended it, but with the clock ticking down and rushed posting, that's how I read it. let me know if you need me to explain any further. | ||
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
On November 23 2013 02:30 Holyflare wrote: Yes, rayn pushes any target he has forever, wrong or right. If he's alive he can screw up the thread in that respect (as you guys saw). If his reads were wrong a scum team that knows him would keep him alive. So most likely his reads were right and he got lynched ("policy lynched") for it. Cora, Holyflare: if you think I (or JJD or Mocsta for that matter) are scum, come at me bro. let me know what specifically you find scummy about me and what issues you take with my play and I'll do my best to explain my thought process to you as I did with thrawn. don't FOS me on the basis that "rayn was town and since he was lynched his scum reads are probably right". that's a flimsy argument to make - being town does not make you infallible. do you honestly think JJD, mocsta, and I are the mafia trifecta, in your own independent assessments? if yes, tell me why, because I'm inclined to think rayn is 0 out of 3 on this one. | ||
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
yeah that was more directed at HF than you. wasn't quite following your line of reasoning but thought you were insinuating the same thing (due to the part JJD bolded). I see what you're trying to say now though. I haven't really thought about it, but hypothesizing like that by itself will be an unproductive mind fuck for me. I think it's possible there was scum on rayn's wagon only by virtue of the fact that I have some suspicions of 1-2 people on that list. | ||
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
naturally I find the afkers suspicious, esp onegu and rean, but I haven't had a chance to reread filters. probably won't have a chance to go through them till later tonight or tomorrow though. aqua is actually coming off as fairly town to me right now, but I suspect that while maybe 2 scum are in the obviously sketchy lurker group, 1 is hiding in plain sight among my proactive, townie reads. the town read I plan to reevaluate is aqua. | ||
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
On November 23 2013 15:44 thrawn2112 wrote: Most of it reaffirms the points I brought up. The rest of it is along the lines of "in hindsight I should have done this" which is not any kind of explanation at all. Anyone can tell you what they should have done in hindsight to avoid telling you why they did what they did. thrawn, i specifically wrote that breakdown of my thought process because i'm pretty confident you are town and i don't want you to get derailed on me. i'm not sure how i can break it down further since there are only so many ways i can explain how when your top scum read = your policy lynch, it's a no-brainer. i included that bit about 'in hindsight' only because i'm not so proud to think that even though i was wrong, it was the smart or right lynch. but i do stand with the belief that it was a fair lynch. is it not clear to you from my post history why rayn was my top lynch yesterday? anyhow, moving on: @Holyflare Holyflare, do you have any actual intention of responding to this post? since you're willing to state you believe rayn was lynched, it's not reaching to believe you think moc, JJD, and myself are scum, correct? so where are your cases? On November 23 2013 03:34 Bereft wrote: Cora, Holyflare: if you think I (or JJD or Mocsta for that matter) are scum, come at me bro. let me know what specifically you find scummy about me and what issues you take with my play and I'll do my best to explain my thought process to you as I did with thrawn. don't FOS me on the basis that "rayn was town and since he was lynched his scum reads are probably right". that's a flimsy argument to make - being town does not make you infallible. do you honestly think JJD, mocsta, and I are the mafia trifecta, in your own independent assessments? if yes, tell me why, because I'm inclined to think rayn is 0 out of 3 on this one. i would like you to give your real thought process behind your claim, because i'm not buying this at all: On November 23 2013 12:06 Holyflare wrote: Like i said earlier "i think thrawn is very towny" so he was my most likely save, if i get vigd and flip doctor you then knew who my heal was on and so it stops any attempted shenanigans that scum can pull. He should get free town cred by way of this. If it gets to night 2 however and a double shot happens then seriously reconsider etc etc. That was my line of thought anyway considering you didn't respond to scib asking who your real save was, i'm inclined to think it was really thrawn. if so, what exactly was the strategy for claiming? you say it's so that if you were vig'd, town would know who you saved and by way of default thrawn is automatically cleared as town --> i don't believe this. aqua brought up a really good point: you would say this only if you were REALLY CONVINCED there's a doc AND a vig this game, because you know there's about a 0.0001% chance scum is going to hit you. also, thrawn is doing a decent enough job of getting town reads on his own, so how does you saving him PROVE he's town? this is equivalent to your "rayn's reads are right because he's town" argument, and i'll repeat: being town does not make you infallible. i also notice you don't say anything about what you think scum did or how you think they reacted to your claim. this is just weird to me, because surely you must've been going through it in your head and strategizing about whether to make a claim like that -- otherwise, what's the point? do you think they just left their vote on thrawn and let their KP go to waste? or do you think they had their vote on thrawn and instead of placing it on someone else, they decided to save their KP for tomorrow night instead? or do you think that there are other blue roles at play? (RB/vet/etc) | ||
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
On November 23 2013 18:09 thrawn2112 wrote: While I'm on the topic of Aquanim posts that seem contrived... Does this remind anyone of anything? no, what is it supposed to remind me of? if Aqua is scum, what's his motivation for taking the time to defend me? obviously if i'm scum the motivation is clear as day. but i know i am town, and say for a moment you accept this as fact too -- what's his motivation then? because i'm genuinely curious. | ||
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
real talk yo (i don't know how to add headers in spoiler) + Show Spoiler + i'm pretty new to mafia so maybe i misunderstand the connotations behind the phrase "policy lynch" because i do not mean to imply i didn't give a shit about mislynching. i didn't lynch rayn because i was angry and i didn't care what he would flip. whenever i vote for a lynch candidate, i'm never 100% confident. what i've been trying to say is that with rayn, i had a high confidence level he was scum (placing numbers on this is a bit arbitrary, but let's say 85%). with every lynch you have to think about the risk/reward involved. so in my head, it was like i had an 85% chance of hitting scum and a 15% chance of hitting town. but IF i was wrong and i did hit town, it was not a total waste of a lynch because i believed a town rayn would hinder the town win con. i did read your rant to Mocsta, and i will admit it influenced the very hindsight analysis you criticized. i wanted to analyze my actions without being proud, and to discern whether i subconsciously lost sight of the correct objective, or correct line of reasoning, if you will. | ||
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
On November 22 2013 14:10 Aquanim wrote: I'm inclined to think that after pushing my wagon hard at the start of the day and being a pretty strong townread for most people it's entirely understandable that a town Thrawn would decide to step back a little. If one apes the spotlight for the entire day then that doesn't give you as much opportunity to learn about other people. I agree that if he does not maintain a high thread presence going forward I will be reassessing Thrawn. what was the point behind this? it comes off as fluff. or is it meant to be a soft defense of thrawn with the caveat that he needs more activity? that being said, i think Aqua would be a horrible lynch for today given the other candidates out there. unless he shoots himself in the foot / something in the thread drastically changes, i can pretty safely say i won't be voting for him today. | ||
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
On November 23 2013 19:05 Onegu wrote: @bereft Serious question how new are you? This drasticly influeances my read on you. Im going to make my case on you anyway because its halfway done and alot of is still relevant for you to answer so... what you're saying is your case which you've spent hours upon hours writing rests largely on me being a newb? ...i look forward to reading it. if you are so convinced i'm scum, and my "meta" (i'm using the word "meta" loosely -- here my "meta" would be being a noob) can "drastically influence" your read on me, do you not think it worth your time to glance over a previous scum game of mine? versus say, spending a million hours writing up a case. here, have one: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=432880&user=Bereft the filter is only 2 pages. it should only take about 15 minutes, then you can go back to spending another 4 hours writing the 2nd half of your case. | ||
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
On November 23 2013 19:33 Onegu wrote: No it has to do with my ability to read newbies, and stop I have already said Im not at home and playing this game isnt my top priority at the moment, but I here I responding to people and makeing the case, you will get it. And basicly I was asking if this was the only site you have played on, but your really agressive answer to a simple question is telling. what do you guys make of this exchange? Onegu I don't understand why you would spend so much time writing up a case without exploring all the facts if a simple piece of information would "drastically influence" your read. if you're as confident as you seem to be with your read, why wouldn't you question or think about my characteristics as a player? did you even read the filter I gave you? it comes off to me as if you feel obligated to go through mine, JJD, and Moc's filters without an open mind, trying to find as many scummy things as possible to be consistent. in answer to your previous question, yes, i've only played on TL and i played a game or 2 in 2010/early 2011, and since then i've played in 3 Newbies as town and White Flag as scum (which I linked you to). how would you reevaluate your reads based on this? (to the other players, i'm in no means trying to play the newb card right now -- i'd like to see Onegu's follow through and how his reads change based on this since he claims it does) | ||
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
On November 23 2013 23:34 JarJarDrinks wrote: Want to repoint this out because aqua picked up on it and didn't really follow up: Not quite a scumslip, but pretty close I think. Cora posted quite a bit about how Onegu was likley scum because of how he voted. He made a post right before the flip where he wrote his name in red caps 3 times and then he made several posts after about how scummy he was. So how exactly can someone who believes that say "I think if there was a scum OFF the Rayn lynch, it is very likely to be [Jampi]." His brain shouldn't even be able to process that sentence. He tries to cover it up when questioned by saying: Yeah I meant BESIDES Onegu. But you would think that he wouldn't forget his top scum read. why don't you expand on what exactly you were thinking? I know you were theory crafting before about what reasons scum would have to keep Rayn alive versus lynching him. what were your conclusions? why are you so certain scum held their kill and how does this tie in with HF's claim? | ||
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
you were debating before whether scum would rather have rayn alive or dead. what did you conclude and how does conclusion tie in with your reads? i was under the impression you thought they would like to keep him alive so they would almost all be off the rayn train. do you really think JJD is scum or are you just pissed off with him? i take it currently your scum reads are HF, onegu, and...? if the scum team is HF, onegu, and X, why would they hold back their NK and be confident enough of a mislynch as you stated earlier? onegu is 1 of the front runners for d2 lynch and HF for d3 (in my head at least). | ||
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
On November 24 2013 11:50 sciberbia wrote: @Aquanim Desert Mini Mafia. Cases on sylencia and sn0_man at various points in the game iirc. Not as large as his case on bereft but imo they were stronger cases analytically. @Aquanim, Cora How likely do you think Mocsta is to be scum? I wasn't a big fan of his D1, and his D2 so far looks pretty troubling to me. + Show Spoiler + On November 24 2013 09:26 Mocsta wrote: I'm not happy with how this cycle has started. Theres been a couple cases - resulting in delurks to dismiss (e.g. Scibs to Onegu); but in my opinion, no one has seriously tried to drive the thread towards a lynch. Maybe the weekend is a valid excuse - heck I was busy as, yesterday; and somewhat today. However, I still expect town to make check-ins (much like I did yesterday). Its not hard, is it? This leads to be disappointed people like Rean/jampidampi are non-existent, and in particular, players like JJD/Bereft have barely posted. The game is not solved, everyone needs to step up and contribute more: query posts, build cases, push a scum target So he gives a lecture about how we all need to step it up and get a scum lynch today. But then what does he proceed to do? Do a massive post-by-post analysis 'proving' how Cora is TOWN. + Show Spoiler + On November 24 2013 09:31 Mocsta wrote: I obviously haven't had a chance to look into Scibs filter in detail (or at all) since i was consumed with Corazon. Things I remember from Scibs - Terrible case on Corazon - Came in and gave a town read on Rayn, and then semi-AFK'd, he stated he wanted Onegu lynched as a priority but it was clear he was happy playing second-fiddle - Gives a defense of Bereft; and if Onegu was his best scum read, *SHOULD* have followed through with why Onegu is intentionally misrepresenting play and why Onegu is the best lynch for today. Essentially 2 cycles in a row, Scibs is happy emailing everyone a bulletin of his intentions and doing nothing to campaign for them. ##Unvote ##Vote: Sciberbia If someone wants to filter dive him whilst I'm gone, and prove otherwise - go ahead. until that point in time, he is most definitely the best lynch for today. Then he puts about 10% of that effort into a bad, half-assed case on me in which he admits he has't even reread my filter, and votes for me. So as I see it, he's writing a bad case about me without any real effort and I don't know if he really has a reasonable expectation of getting me lynched today. How can he conclude that I'm 'most definitely' the best lynch without even reading my filter? His talking about Cora and myself just side-tracked us even further. Also I find it suspicious how his reads flip-flop so hard that he never really commits to anything at all. First rayn was a policy lynch. Then he says 80% of the reason for voting rayn is because he thinks rayn is scum. And then after rayn flips town he says that it was always just a policy lynch. He keeps flip-flopping on me, Cora, Aquanim, Onegu.. pretty much every read and it's really hindering our progress, especially when he brings up old stuff and reverses his previous opinion on it. In conclusion, I think Mocsta could very well be scum and want some outside opnions of his cases on me and recent play. Do you think his vote on me looks like a townie move? i realize this is not directed at me, but i agree with this. his play day 1 was acceptable to me, but since he's come back into the thread day 2, i think his town curtain is falling... that case and vote on you is absolutely ludicrous. previously i had a suspicion that one scum was hiding among my pro town reads. based on today's posting, i'm pretty confidant it's NOT aqua and quite suspicious that it's mocsta. | ||
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
i'm not saying this is damning, but this is quite interesting... mocsta to onegu: On November 23 2013 17:39 Mocsta wrote: You are hard tunneled, because I answered your question in my reply. I was stating that the same response in is my filter. You said scum will be pushing you this cycle. As far as I know, the only person with an agenda to come after you *solely* is Sciberbia. Do you have a updated opinion on Scibs? mocsta to artanis in marv's game: On November 18 2013 09:53 Mocsta wrote: Running behind schedule, works a bitch today and Im only up to p124. Things I want to say before deadline. (1) Artanis: You are tunneled. Your issues with me are because I do not play the game the same way you choose to. That is not an indicator of scum. Everyone that has played with me many times realises this is how I play town. Further, all your reads on other players hinge upon their thought process on me. You should know association reads are terribad. You are obsessed beyond reason. Unfortunately, the way you walk people through your mindset makes me lean town. You need to drop this; or if you can't, fine -- Accept there are other players in the game that *must* be scum and look there. | ||
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
I said this yesterday: On November 23 2013 18:11 Bereft wrote: thrawn, i specifically wrote that breakdown of my thought process because i'm pretty confident you are town and i don't want you to get derailed on me. i'm not sure how i can break it down further since there are only so many ways i can explain how when your top scum read = your policy lynch, it's a no-brainer. i included that bit about 'in hindsight' only because i'm not so proud to think that even though i was wrong, it was the smart or right lynch. but i do stand with the belief that it was a fair lynch. is it not clear to you from my post history why rayn was my top lynch yesterday? anyhow, moving on: @Holyflare Holyflare, do you have any actual intention of responding to this post? since you're willing to state you believe rayn was lynched, it's not reaching to believe you think moc, JJD, and myself are scum, correct? so where are your cases? i would like you to give your real thought process behind your claim, because i'm not buying this at all: considering you didn't respond to scib asking who your real save was, i'm inclined to think it was really thrawn. if so, what exactly was the strategy for claiming? you say it's so that if you were vig'd, town would know who you saved and by way of default thrawn is automatically cleared as town --> i don't believe this. aqua brought up a really good point: you would say this only if you were REALLY CONVINCED there's a doc AND a vig this game, because you know there's about a 0.0001% chance scum is going to hit you. also, thrawn is doing a decent enough job of getting town reads on his own, so how does you saving him PROVE he's town? this is equivalent to your "rayn's reads are right because he's town" argument, and i'll repeat: being town does not make you infallible. i also notice you don't say anything about what you think scum did or how you think they reacted to your claim. this is just weird to me, because surely you must've been going through it in your head and strategizing about whether to make a claim like that -- otherwise, what's the point? do you think they just left their vote on thrawn and let their KP go to waste? or do you think they had their vote on thrawn and instead of placing it on someone else, they decided to save their KP for tomorrow night instead? or do you think that there are other blue roles at play? (RB/vet/etc) he hasn't come back to me at all, except to say this: On November 24 2013 09:59 Holyflare wrote: Also, some guy asked me to claim my flavour at some point, I think it was bereft? What is the point of that when scum get fake claims? if he thinks my post was asking me to post his flavor, that has GOT to be intentional misinterpretation. did anyone ask for his flavor prior to that post? he later comes back with this: On November 24 2013 10:09 Holyflare wrote: I've told you my reasons for claiming doctor and somebody implied they changed when quite clearly they didn't. I returned to the thread and didn't say much. Today was most likely to be an entire day of "oh HF is really scummy lets talk about his complete lack of posts and infer stuff about them when we have no idea" not only did revealing avoid that but I think thrawn was likely to get killed because I think mocsta is scum and he had a high buddy buddy association with thrawn. Mocsta is prime suspect number 1 coming out of this by the way. He calls cora town straight off the bat after the lynch and THEN does a filter dive to say that cora is town all over again. What would be the point in confirming someone he already has a read on? He wants credit from the town by way of appearing to contribute information. He get's called out for playing to an anti-town win con and then says oh "another high horse player, you don't even believe what you're writing" in order to poo-poo players off actual logic. this means there was zero real strategy behind his claim -- he didn't in fact think about what scum did or how they reacted to his claim. this is basically impossible unless he is scum himself. also if you take a look at his filter, he has done zero actual scum hunting. since the end of day 1, he has only talked about how the rayn lynch was dumb (funny how he has so much to say about it NOW, when on day 1 he didn't actually try to convince us why the rayn lynch was bad other than "guys i've played with him before and i'm SURE he's town"...then proceeded to vote for him anyway). he has not questioned anybody and seems to not care about sussing out scum -- he even has to be called out to come into the thread: On November 24 2013 09:57 Aquanim wrote: @Holyflare: just because you've claimed doctor doesn't mean you get to peace out and not contribute anything today. I think you're online at the moment, so why not come in and talk to us? On November 24 2013 09:57 Holyflare wrote: What's up? i've played with Holyflare before and i know for a fact Holyflare prides himself on being a good scum hunter. why then is his attitude so different this game? he also showed far more initiative in the game i played with him (where he was town). here, he has barely even addressed anyone and seems indifferent to picking at peoples' brains. i think this is a pretty strong characteristic for a first-time scummer, which I am quite sure HF is. i just crashed and burned in white flag mafia, and HF's filter is displaying everything my filter did in that game. ##Vote: Holyflare on a side note, as i've stated, i do have suspicions of mocsta, but after reading HF's filter, i'm more confident in this read than I am in mocsta. i think mocsta would only be a better lynch if i become more confident after going through his filter with a fine tooth comb. | ||
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
are you saying i stole your thunder?  | ||
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