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Newbie Mini Mafia LI - Page 6

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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chinstrap
Profile Joined April 2011
United Kingdom253 Posts
January 08 2014 19:57 GMT
#841
ps. The scumminess of Asuna and sidesprang does not depend on Dnyarri or Derrida. I find the way both voted suspicious in a vacuum
chinstrap
Profile Joined April 2011
United Kingdom253 Posts
January 08 2014 22:00 GMT
#844
The silence is deafening
chinstrap
Profile Joined April 2011
United Kingdom253 Posts
January 08 2014 22:03 GMT
#847
you mean SK
chinstrap
Profile Joined April 2011
United Kingdom253 Posts
January 08 2014 22:03 GMT
#848
Good shot OWB
chinstrap
Profile Joined April 2011
United Kingdom253 Posts
January 08 2014 22:04 GMT
#849
I jest
chinstrap
Profile Joined April 2011
United Kingdom253 Posts
January 08 2014 22:49 GMT
#862
Or just read my posts from right before the end of the night.

We have our trifecta
chinstrap
Profile Joined April 2011
United Kingdom253 Posts
January 08 2014 22:50 GMT
#863
Also jonny died for a reason, that reason is important.

Find the motive behind his death = find some scum
chinstrap
Profile Joined April 2011
United Kingdom253 Posts
January 08 2014 22:53 GMT
#865
Also please note that these are the only remaining possible setups:

TTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)
TTTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker
TTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)
TT = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather
T = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)

Due to the presence of (confirmed) 1xVT, 1xIC, and 1xballa
chinstrap
Profile Joined April 2011
United Kingdom253 Posts
January 08 2014 22:55 GMT
#867
For the reasons covered here:

On January 09 2014 04:13 chinstrap wrote:
Also, remember then ominous Asuna missing from the early Derrida list? Keep that in mind while we bring up...

Derrida

Show nested quote +
On January 09 2014 02:08 Derrida wrote:
Wow, what an end to day 1. Here's my initial reaction to what went down in the last hours of day 1, will reply to the comments raised by Suki and Balla in a separate post later tonight.

If I was around I would have definitely changed my vote after reading this:

+ Show Spoiler +
I have to go soon, so here's my last word.

I can't tell you guys how to think or how to use the information gained from me dying but I want to ask you guys to question your analysis. You will all be wrong in thinking I am scum, some of you, I feel, tried too hard to make something out of nothing. What I'm mostly referring to here is "scum buddy", defending Asuna, and "scum slip".

I don't think you should target those who made cases against me because I feel like they were just making something out of nothing. My opinion is probably meaningless at this point but here is my scum ranking from most to least scummy:

onlywonderboy, dnyarri, Day_Walker, Balla24, sidesprang, BigDad, Derrida, TheChyz, suki, JonnyLaw, Asuna, chinstrap

This is my first game, really sad that I will die so early. I made mistakes which eventually led to my downfall, it doesn't help the fact that people overanalyzed my posts and made something out of nothing. I may seem scummy to some of you, but that's because you are actively looking for scum and trying to find anything you can use to get someone. I hope you reread my filter from a townie perspective and see that I was just really new to this.

ggwp, gl town I hope you get it right next time.


This just SHOUTS townie no matter how last minute, I wouldn't believe that the Dragoon could fake this act if he was scum given his previous level of reads. The foundation of my vote on him was that it was a "win-win situation," but reading his filter, it is clear that his analyses are improving as the game develops. I would probably unvote Dragoon, so I'm curious why more people who were present at the time of the deadline did not back down? Going through the final hour, it seems only Balla was actively there who didn't switch his vote, which is suspicious on its own, but his reaction to the switch is just odd, and he later apologizes for his "heated" reaction, which is odd once again because I mean come on, it wasn't that heated of a moment, was it? Day_Walker has came to Balla's aid by claiming that

"I think suki and Balla look better after this, unconditionally. If I'm scum and I'm watching a vote swing away from a townie, I don't think I would impulsively blurt out an "Argh what the hell" or a "NO FUCK OFF YOU GUYS", regardless of the new target's alignment.


But, for me, if someone was to do this, it would be Balla who has been consistently spearheading discussion, pressuring people, and doing in-depth analysis. It just seems that he is the most experienced and/or better player here, which means that such a move would may only be expected of him if he was scum, now he is guaranteed townie in everyones eyes. I mean how does that switch hurt Balla, and why does he just react that way? Which brings me to my next point; why did Jonny switch his vote? Seems as if the only thing that came out of his switch was Balla's reaction, which confirmed him townie in people's eyes. It seems as if this was a coordinated play by two good players to anchor themselves as townies and drag the town into mayhem.

Now, even though I would unvote Dragoon, I don't see the point of jumping on the Dnyarri bandwagon just to policy lynch lurkers. It is true that he did not bring much to the table, but the fact that he was the first to vote on Dragoon (pointed raised by Jonny), doesn't say much about him to lynch. It is something to lynch him for lurking, but I mean switching your vote because he was the first to vote for Dragoon is something completely different. In his vote for Dragoon, Dnyarri says:

Actually I have changed my primary target of suspicion from TheChyz to TheDragoon mainly because of this post:

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=434723&currentpage=16#316

TheDragoon stated that Day_Walker seemed like innocent even though Day_Walker had only posted one list and nothing else. Day_Walker's only vote is against TheChyz which doesn't mean much since TheChyz is easy bandwagoning target. TheDragoon's post give me the impression that he wants to slow voting down by defending (random) people while going to TheChyz-bandwagon and attacking nobody else.

TheChyz is confusing but I'm not sure if it's carelessness or risk taking. My logic for calling him scum was somewhat faulted too I think.

##unvote
##vote: TheDragoon


In my opinion this is just bad play and faulty analysis on the part of Dnyarri made just to have said something. Furthermore, noone jumps on this bandwagon by quoting Dnyarri so it is further irrelevant that Dnyarri was the one to vote first on Dragoon, which makes Jonny's switch even more suspicious.


I read this in disbelief.

'If I was around I would have definitely changed my vote after reading this:' What?

Like has been mentioned I just don't follow the rationale at all. Its bizarre to the point of ridiculousness. This is either town naivety or an actual scum claim imo. Either way based on this post scum Derrida = scum Dnyarri. Add into the fishy Asuna and the Asunaless list? Trifecta? Maybe, I call it a 50 / 50 scum / naive town.


and here:

On January 09 2014 04:21 chinstrap wrote:
So what about

Dnyarri

Now there isn't really a lot on Dnyarri apart from he started the theDragoon lynch and a FEW strange posts (in fact almost all his posts because he has so few).

Therefore Dnyarri could easily be a semi afk town or a lurking mafia (he has given no indication as to why he would be a semi afk town)

However if he is town I would be VERY VERY confident that Derrida is also. Derrida's analysis of day 1 is a massive lurch to defend Dnyarri. If Derrida were mafia (and hence knew Dnyarri's alignment) he would have 0 incentive to protect him at this point at all. Like none. The only rationale that makes sense if Dnyarri flips town is that Derrida's day 1 analysis falls into the naive town 50 percentile.



##Vote: Dnyarri
chinstrap
Profile Joined April 2011
United Kingdom253 Posts
January 08 2014 23:03 GMT
#871
On January 09 2014 07:58 Balla24 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 09 2014 07:53 chinstrap wrote:
Also please note that these are the only remaining possible setups:

TTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)
TTTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker
TTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)
TT = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather
T = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)

Due to the presence of (confirmed) 1xVT, 1xIC, and 1xballa


Well we can't rule out 0Ts. Just cause we have VTs flip doesn't mean that. But ruling out 6T and 7T yeah


I am terribly sorry. Correction:

TTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)
TTTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker
TTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)
TT = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather
T = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)
0 Ts = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather
chinstrap
Profile Joined April 2011
United Kingdom253 Posts
January 08 2014 23:05 GMT
#873
After skimming jonnys filter his biggest beef was with BigDad. I'm not sure it means anything but I shall look into it in the morning.

I'm just glad to be alive!

Apologies for getting you killed with all my 'I'm getting shot talk' jonny. Hopefully we will learn more from your death than we would have from mine. RIP
chinstrap
Profile Joined April 2011
United Kingdom253 Posts
January 09 2014 09:08 GMT
#905
I'm at work so I can't really do too much until this evening.

A huge amount has happened in the last 24 hours. Lots to think about. I don't understand how we had so much talk about nothing Day 1 and so much silence now when there is bucket loads to analyse!
chinstrap
Profile Joined April 2011
United Kingdom253 Posts
January 09 2014 09:11 GMT
#906
Also I would not put too much faith in the Asuna roleblock claim.
chinstrap
Profile Joined April 2011
United Kingdom253 Posts
January 09 2014 09:25 GMT
#907
By that I mean:

1: Theres isn't 100% a roleblocker
2: Roleblocker may have not used his action
chinstrap
Profile Joined April 2011
United Kingdom253 Posts
January 09 2014 09:26 GMT
#908
While there are issues with both of those points, it is enough to keep asuna off a confirmed town list imo
chinstrap
Profile Joined April 2011
United Kingdom253 Posts
January 09 2014 11:43 GMT
#911
If asuna was SK and tried to shoot someone would the RB have been notified he tried to shoot?
chinstrap
Profile Joined April 2011
United Kingdom253 Posts
January 09 2014 12:21 GMT
#913
So DW Summed up my initial feelings about the role claim right there.

However, after giving it more thought:

'TTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)'

Is the only remaining scenario without a roleblocker.

This would mean Asuna had to be the godfather and dnyarri has to be TWON for DW scenario 2 to be true. I find that highly unlikly
chinstrap
Profile Joined April 2011
United Kingdom253 Posts
January 09 2014 12:23 GMT
#914
So the only scenario is the one DW missed.

There IS a mafia role blocker, but they didnt roleblock anyone. Allowing Asuna a free roleblock claim to apear confirmed town. Again, pretty convoluted but within the relms of posisbility.
chinstrap
Profile Joined April 2011
United Kingdom253 Posts
January 09 2014 12:25 GMT
#915
Either way. It is what it is. Scenarios exist where this is a fake roleclaim, discussing it further is just going to be pointless speculation.
chinstrap
Profile Joined April 2011
United Kingdom253 Posts
January 09 2014 12:48 GMT
#917
IC is a blue role
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