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Forum Index > TL Mafia
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chinstrap
Profile Joined April 2011
United Kingdom253 Posts
January 07 2014 22:11 GMT
#763
If i get shot I still survive till the end of the night correct?
chinstrap
Profile Joined April 2011
United Kingdom253 Posts
January 07 2014 22:13 GMT
#766
To be honest, that day kicked up such a shitstorm we have to be able to find something in there.
chinstrap
Profile Joined April 2011
United Kingdom253 Posts
January 07 2014 22:14 GMT
#769
On January 08 2014 06:58 Balla24 wrote:
NO FUCK OFF YOU GUYS


Balla if you are mafia and you made this post in the heat of the moment with ~30s left you deserve to win.
chinstrap
Profile Joined April 2011
United Kingdom253 Posts
January 07 2014 22:15 GMT
#772
On January 08 2014 07:14 Balla24 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 08 2014 07:11 onlywonderboy wrote:
On January 08 2014 07:09 chinstrap wrote:
I didnt necessarily agree with the dnyarri lynch but theDragonn was 110% town after his final post

I'm pretty much in this camp as well. Was putting a lot of faith in Jonny's word but it was the only chance of getting the vote off of Dragoon.


I'm not in this camp... wtf? Posts right before you get lynched are totally WIFOM... mafia always does that, so does town clearly... the only thing thats different is he listed in order people from scummy to least scummy. But beyond that? Nah cmon...


Reread his filter after the martyr
chinstrap
Profile Joined April 2011
United Kingdom253 Posts
January 07 2014 22:30 GMT
#782
On January 08 2014 07:25 JonnyLaw wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 08 2014 07:14 chinstrap wrote:
On January 08 2014 06:58 Balla24 wrote:
NO FUCK OFF YOU GUYS


Balla if you are mafia and you made this post in the heat of the moment with ~30s left you deserve to win.



That's only true if dnyarri and balla are both town.

If they're both scum you realize balla controlled the last vote needed to lynch dnyarri right?

If dnyarri's scum it doesn't necessarily mean balla is scum, he could be mistaken but it points in that direction.


My point is that if they are both scum that is the most retarded post I have ever seen in my life. There were 30 seconds left, so you are risking dnyarri flipping scum and making you like like nailed on scum for the MINUTE CHANCE that shouting

On January 08 2014 06:58 Balla24 wrote:
NO FUCK OFF YOU GUYS


Swings a vote that scum will win in 30 seconds anyway.


chinstrap
Profile Joined April 2011
United Kingdom253 Posts
January 07 2014 22:43 GMT
#783
Ok.

I am going to try my best to give you guys a confirmed town perspective on this clusterfuck before my inevitable death tonight.

I will be keeping my opinions and comment to myself until ~ the deadline however as I talk too much and would like to hear all of our opinions on what just went down and why.

Just to reiterate in bold - IF YOU HAVE ANY BULLETS SHOOT THE LURKERS

If you don't want to take a hit fro a gat like your man chinstrap, don't lurk!
chinstrap
Profile Joined April 2011
United Kingdom253 Posts
January 08 2014 11:45 GMT
#797
The current lack of analysis and activity is creating and alarmingly easy situation for scum to hide in.

I want to hear everyone's in depth analysis of what went down day 1. No constructive input by the end of the night = scummy as fuck.

We it is highly unlikely town has enough kp to shoot the ~5 lurkers we have. Prove your townyness and help the town by posting your day 1 summary and reads PLEASE
chinstrap
Profile Joined April 2011
United Kingdom253 Posts
January 08 2014 13:39 GMT
#799
Reread the possible roles
chinstrap
Profile Joined April 2011
United Kingdom253 Posts
January 08 2014 16:43 GMT
#809
On January 09 2014 01:40 Balla24 wrote:
Last thing on the vote switch: I agree with suki, it looks townie... but I think it ends up being pretty non-indicative of alignment until we get a flip on dynyarri and he flips scum. If he flips scum then it is totally town-indicative, if not then it's totally non-indicative.


This is correct
chinstrap
Profile Joined April 2011
United Kingdom253 Posts
January 08 2014 16:49 GMT
#810
@Day_Walker Can you please give me some detail on your rationale towards theDragoon before the vote and also your opinions towards what happened with the attempted switch PLUS the remaining people who stayed on theDragoon and got him lynched?

I also an answer to the why dnyarri was your #1 scum (which you never gave) would be appreciated.
chinstrap
Profile Joined April 2011
United Kingdom253 Posts
January 08 2014 16:52 GMT
#813
Awesome. I'll post something large before the deadline
chinstrap
Profile Joined April 2011
United Kingdom253 Posts
January 08 2014 17:06 GMT
#817
I sincerely see nothing wrong with that post at all.

However, a discussion around personal attacks is pointless and distracting. Take it up out of thread if you want to.
chinstrap
Profile Joined April 2011
United Kingdom253 Posts
January 08 2014 19:04 GMT
#832
Ok I made a massive (and I really mean massive) post in notepad but after reading it back I'm just going to put a few separate posts out there.

Firstly Asuna

On January 07 2014 12:41 Asuna wrote:
I don't feel any purpose in bandwagoning a vote(as opposed to casting more suspicion) when there's so many already, as it wouldn't contribute anything to the debate. Right now I'm waiting on his apparently big post thing. That said, if the deadline were now I'd vote for him, but since we have 18 hours I don't really feel the need to add another drop into the bucket of vote lynch.


I find this reluctance to vote (specifically reluctance to appear to be bandwagoning) as worrying. Especially when followed by this vote post.

On January 08 2014 06:24 Asuna wrote:
Back just in time. So no point talking about Dragoon, he pretty much has the noose around him. I do feel rather iffy about DW like others have said before, concerning how he started off sort of as a narrator, and then the timing of his defense. But the odd thing is what actually made me start to view him as scummy was how Jonny saw him, namely jonny didn't pursue DW for semi-lurking like he did OWB, even after it was pointed out to him, but to be fair DW did say he might be disappearing... and besides the popular opinion now is that Jonny is town so...

Dragoon doesn't need another vote. He's pretty well dead. I'm going to throw my vote on DW just to keep it in the record that I think he's fishy.

##Vote: Day_Walker


This is post is really strange to me. I don’t buy the analysis at all. It feels like a contrived way to avoid the bandwagon and move your suspicion to what I think is the easiest town target in the game at this point (This being after I went ape on DW)

I just don’t like it.

I think Asuna has a fair amount of explaining to do. She talks about saving her vote to ‘casting more suspicion’ but then follows me onto Day_Walker with some shady looking read. Asuna has flown under the radar thus far, and hasn't stuck her neck out at all.
chinstrap
Profile Joined April 2011
United Kingdom253 Posts
January 08 2014 19:13 GMT
#833
Also, remember then ominous Asuna missing from the early Derrida list? Keep that in mind while we bring up...

Derrida

On January 09 2014 02:08 Derrida wrote:
Wow, what an end to day 1. Here's my initial reaction to what went down in the last hours of day 1, will reply to the comments raised by Suki and Balla in a separate post later tonight.

If I was around I would have definitely changed my vote after reading this:

+ Show Spoiler +
I have to go soon, so here's my last word.

I can't tell you guys how to think or how to use the information gained from me dying but I want to ask you guys to question your analysis. You will all be wrong in thinking I am scum, some of you, I feel, tried too hard to make something out of nothing. What I'm mostly referring to here is "scum buddy", defending Asuna, and "scum slip".

I don't think you should target those who made cases against me because I feel like they were just making something out of nothing. My opinion is probably meaningless at this point but here is my scum ranking from most to least scummy:

onlywonderboy, dnyarri, Day_Walker, Balla24, sidesprang, BigDad, Derrida, TheChyz, suki, JonnyLaw, Asuna, chinstrap

This is my first game, really sad that I will die so early. I made mistakes which eventually led to my downfall, it doesn't help the fact that people overanalyzed my posts and made something out of nothing. I may seem scummy to some of you, but that's because you are actively looking for scum and trying to find anything you can use to get someone. I hope you reread my filter from a townie perspective and see that I was just really new to this.

ggwp, gl town I hope you get it right next time.


This just SHOUTS townie no matter how last minute, I wouldn't believe that the Dragoon could fake this act if he was scum given his previous level of reads. The foundation of my vote on him was that it was a "win-win situation," but reading his filter, it is clear that his analyses are improving as the game develops. I would probably unvote Dragoon, so I'm curious why more people who were present at the time of the deadline did not back down? Going through the final hour, it seems only Balla was actively there who didn't switch his vote, which is suspicious on its own, but his reaction to the switch is just odd, and he later apologizes for his "heated" reaction, which is odd once again because I mean come on, it wasn't that heated of a moment, was it? Day_Walker has came to Balla's aid by claiming that

Show nested quote +
"I think suki and Balla look better after this, unconditionally. If I'm scum and I'm watching a vote swing away from a townie, I don't think I would impulsively blurt out an "Argh what the hell" or a "NO FUCK OFF YOU GUYS", regardless of the new target's alignment.


But, for me, if someone was to do this, it would be Balla who has been consistently spearheading discussion, pressuring people, and doing in-depth analysis. It just seems that he is the most experienced and/or better player here, which means that such a move would may only be expected of him if he was scum, now he is guaranteed townie in everyones eyes. I mean how does that switch hurt Balla, and why does he just react that way? Which brings me to my next point; why did Jonny switch his vote? Seems as if the only thing that came out of his switch was Balla's reaction, which confirmed him townie in people's eyes. It seems as if this was a coordinated play by two good players to anchor themselves as townies and drag the town into mayhem.

Now, even though I would unvote Dragoon, I don't see the point of jumping on the Dnyarri bandwagon just to policy lynch lurkers. It is true that he did not bring much to the table, but the fact that he was the first to vote on Dragoon (pointed raised by Jonny), doesn't say much about him to lynch. It is something to lynch him for lurking, but I mean switching your vote because he was the first to vote for Dragoon is something completely different. In his vote for Dragoon, Dnyarri says:

Show nested quote +
Actually I have changed my primary target of suspicion from TheChyz to TheDragoon mainly because of this post:

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=434723&currentpage=16#316

TheDragoon stated that Day_Walker seemed like innocent even though Day_Walker had only posted one list and nothing else. Day_Walker's only vote is against TheChyz which doesn't mean much since TheChyz is easy bandwagoning target. TheDragoon's post give me the impression that he wants to slow voting down by defending (random) people while going to TheChyz-bandwagon and attacking nobody else.

TheChyz is confusing but I'm not sure if it's carelessness or risk taking. My logic for calling him scum was somewhat faulted too I think.

##unvote
##vote: TheDragoon


In my opinion this is just bad play and faulty analysis on the part of Dnyarri made just to have said something. Furthermore, noone jumps on this bandwagon by quoting Dnyarri so it is further irrelevant that Dnyarri was the one to vote first on Dragoon, which makes Jonny's switch even more suspicious.


I read this in disbelief.

'If I was around I would have definitely changed my vote after reading this:' What?

Like has been mentioned I just don't follow the rationale at all. Its bizarre to the point of ridiculousness. This is either town naivety or an actual scum claim imo. Either way based on this post scum Derrida = scum Dnyarri. Add into the fishy Asuna and the Asunaless list? Trifecta? Maybe, I call it a 50 / 50 scum / naive town.
chinstrap
Profile Joined April 2011
United Kingdom253 Posts
January 08 2014 19:21 GMT
#835
So what about

Dnyarri

Now there isn't really a lot on Dnyarri apart from he started the theDragoon lynch and a FEW strange posts (in fact almost all his posts because he has so few).

Therefore Dnyarri could easily be a semi afk town or a lurking mafia (he has given no indication as to why he would be a semi afk town)

However if he is town I would be VERY VERY confident that Derrida is also. Derrida's analysis of day 1 is a massive lurch to defend Dnyarri. If Derrida were mafia (and hence knew Dnyarri's alignment) he would have 0 incentive to protect him at this point at all. Like none. The only rationale that makes sense if Dnyarri flips town is that Derrida's day 1 analysis falls into the naive town 50 percentile.

chinstrap
Profile Joined April 2011
United Kingdom253 Posts
January 08 2014 19:24 GMT
#836
Now if one of them flips town I start buying into some of the conspiracy theories.
chinstrap
Profile Joined April 2011
United Kingdom253 Posts
January 08 2014 19:31 GMT
#837
If one of them flips scum the other is. Then I move my attention towards Asuna or...

sidesprang

His filter is very neutral. He discourages the Dnyarri (and in this scenario Dnyarri has flipped scum) vote here:

On January 07 2014 21:55 sidesprang wrote:
Regarding dnyarri i'm not sold on him being mafia, and not on him being a better lynch either. His first two post were questionable at best, but his third one I really liked.

There are only two reasons to lynch a lurker as I see it.

1. There are no clear active mafia candidate
2. You will never be able to read the lurker.

I think when he posts some more we will be able to get a read on him, its not like he is posting one liners.


And his vote here is somewhat meaningless:

On January 07 2014 10:44 sidesprang wrote:
Been away most of the day sry. Skimming through the thread now. Came to this. Voting for yourself make it an autovote for me. If you are town please fight for your life, we have everything to gain. If town we will hopefully see it, if scum we will hopefully be more sure you are scum after your defence.

##Vote theDragoon

Show nested quote +
On January 07 2014 07:21 theDragoon wrote:
On January 07 2014 07:11 Balla24 wrote:
Eh, you are misjudging us if you think we're experienced players... we are just experienced with noob games

But rest assured, if you're new we are and SHOULD be taking it into account... but explicitly stating "I AM NEW PLS DONT LYNCH ME MY READS MIGHT BE BAD" is NOT helpful whatsoever. Catch my drift?


/offtopic:Yea i get it. I just felt like a lot of people look into my posts too much thinking there's some sort of link or slip or whatever when in reality i just don't know WTF I'm doing.

/ontopic: I'm gonna ##Unvote onlywonderboy and ##Vote theDragoon. There's no way to get out of this mess, you're all really looking at the wrong guy. I guess without me fucking things up for the town, you'd be better off but this is going to be 2 down for mafia after the first night. I have to head out, I'll be on later.




I'll be catching up for a bit, if anyone have any questions feel free to ask I'll be around for a bit. But gonna use some time catching up as a lot have been posted.



Hes my second pick for scum #3
chinstrap
Profile Joined April 2011
United Kingdom253 Posts
January 08 2014 19:32 GMT
#838
If it turns out we are believing conspiracy theories then you have an easy life. Lynch balla for information and follow the breadcrumbs home
chinstrap
Profile Joined April 2011
United Kingdom253 Posts
January 08 2014 19:36 GMT
#839
QED
chinstrap
Profile Joined April 2011
United Kingdom253 Posts
January 08 2014 19:49 GMT
#840
Also. The more people do this sort of analysis the easier it is to confirm people as town. So if you are town: put some time in, do some analysis and put your cards on the table.

This FORCES scum to do the same. You can then pick them apart later in the game. We have like 4 semi lurking town which make this the easiest scum game ever
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