EPTCan you share your thoughts on Dragoon/BigDad for me as well?
Newbie Mini Mafia LI - Page 2
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
suki
Canada1159 Posts
Can you share your thoughts on Dragoon/BigDad for me as well? | ||
|
suki
Canada1159 Posts
| ||
|
suki
Canada1159 Posts
| ||
|
suki
Canada1159 Posts
| ||
|
suki
Canada1159 Posts
First and foremost I think it's prudent to address the person that strikes me as the number one scum in the game: theDragoon On January 06 2014 15:49 theDragoon wrote: That's enough of a reason to lynch Asuna? I don't see that as good enough to suspect Asuna of being mafia, unless you know more than what you've said there. Those 3 things you listed there is just a sign of an inexperienced player, it has nothing to do with being a scum. I said that because his reasoning to lynch Asuna was basically due to Asuna's inexperience, which I think is not a good enough reason to be lynched when there are a lot more suspicious people out there. I don't know if Jonny knows more about Asuna, I only thought that because I was not buying his reason to lynch Asuna. The more I read these posts the more I dislike them. He's basically stating that he knows Asuna's "excuses, bandwagoning and self doubt" are due to her inexperience, and he's not leaving any room to interpret them as scummy. How would a town Dragoon be so sure? I'm more and more confident that the 'knows more about Asuna' line really is a scum slip. Other things that scream scum to me: theDragoon's knee jerk reaction to vote OWB because of an incorrect timeline. - Attacking his attacker for a slight inconsistency. His statement that Balla is rising up on his suspicions list with Balla's 'immediate' jump to lynch him. - More of the same His flip-flopping on Derrida, first saying his suspicion is 'low' and then on his very next post saying Derrida is higher up. - Scummy enough, and he even admits that he's flip-flopping His top scum reads are Day_Walker because he doesn't like that Day_Walker has a town read on him (???), and me, because he thinks I'm too eager to scumhunt (also ???). And aside from his knee-jerk suspicions thrown at OWB, Balla and now Derrida he hasn't contributed any other reads. + Show Spoiler + His top 2 scum read post: I'm not good enough at this game to get scum reads from forum posts. If you REALLY want me to give my top 2 most suspicious people are: Day_Walker: If I don't buy his town read on me, why should I believe his other reads. I've got the most votes on me right now and I want to see if Day_Walker still thinks I'm a townie. suki: "Okay then, lets get back to scumhunting :D". A bit too eager to go scumhunting there, don't ya think? Not really a good reason to call him mafia. And finally under all this pressure then he says his play is due to him being new to the game and self-destructs. I feel a lot of frustration in Dragoon's most recent posts, and I kind of feel bad for him since he is new to Mafia and this is a really gut-wrenching game, but I really do think his inexperience is his downfall and that there's no way he's not mafia here. ##vote theDragoon More analysis on its way. If there's anything you want me to answer post it; I'll be here for a bit. | ||
|
suki
Canada1159 Posts
On January 06 2014 20:30 BigDad wrote: Day_Walker is a different story, he comes across as a narrator rather than a contributor. I read his filter out of context of the overall thread and it becomes apparent that his posts are very cautious. After re-reading Day_Walker's filter multiple times, I did come to the conclusion that his posts are really cautious.. But I'm not sure if I would say that anything is particularly scummy. I looked for past games to reference but it seems this is his first game. To DayWalker: Your filter is pretty short, and on the whole you seem to be agreeing with people a lot without posting your own suspicions. I definitely want to hear who you think is scum and why, the next time you're in the thread. BigDad: Before I left I asked BigDad to elaborate on Day_Walker and his response to me was: + Show Spoiler + On January 07 2014 07:46 BigDad wrote: @Suki Here's my analysis of Day_Walkers game so far which makes me mistrustful. He opens with a list of character reads (a common theme in this thread) which appears to contain a lot of content however if you strip out all the quoting he has done and put it in the context of his following posts it shows Day_Walker as a player who is appearing to contribute without saying too much. To back my doubt in Day_walker have a look here.. ..maybe im being an overly suspicious townie but I hate when people create an alibi for their style of play early in the game; it may be an attempt to misdirect any doubt on him. Also, scum tend to spend alot of time apologising for their actions and not trying to get anyones bad side. Suki, can you have a look at Day_Walkers feed and tell me if you can see where I am coming from? ##Vote Day_Walker I'd also like to hear JonnyLaws opinion on Day_Walker after the recent activity. Again, he's describing Day_Walker's cautious play, but I don't see it as particularly scummy. Also I don't agree that Day_Walker has been particularly apologetic. Jonny pointed out how BigDad has been asking towny people for their opinions, and yeah I got a weird vibe when I read 'Suki, can you have a look at Day_Walker's feed', as well as asking Jonny for his opinion. He explained that he was just trying to create conversation which is a meh answer for me. Next his comment on theDragoon: [B]On January 07 2014 08:58 BigDad wrote: @Balla24 I've already outlined several times that I think theDragoon is an easy scum pick. Look at his posts (and my previous posts on him). I'll state it again he tends to dodge questions and post fluff that we cannot use to hunt scum. His self-vote is confusing; it's either a desperate, last-ditch attempt by a scum player to make us doubt our actions. Or it's a newbie town that can't deal with the pressure on himself and he [b]needs to post more content to get the bandwagon off him. My position at the moment is that even a valiant fight on his behalf wont stop this bandwagon, this means that whatever he flips tomorrow we may be able to see his relationships with other players - unfortunately he seems to have given up the ghost and stopped posting. This means that should he flip Town he isn't helping us a whole bunch. Again with the wishy-washiness. He can't seem to decide if theDragoon is 'an easy scum slip' or 'a newbie town that can't deal with the pressure on himself'. I still don't get a really townie vibe from BigDad like some other people in the thread. He's just too much on the fence about things that he shouldn't be. | ||
|
suki
Canada1159 Posts
On January 07 2014 10:56 Day_Walker wrote: @Jonny Right now it sounds like you have both BigDad and theDragoon pegged as scum. I read BigDad's filter, his first four content posts all point suspicion at theDragoon. Based on that, I have a hard time believing they are both scum. Hmm... That's a good point, although BigDad's initial reasoning on why theDragoon was suspicious was really weak. I'd hardly call it a bus. | ||
|
suki
Canada1159 Posts
dnyarri Ugghh his instant switch of target from TheChyz to theDragoon as soon as he was pressured is really really bad. Also I really don't like this comment he made: My opinions about suki are based on the simple reason that suki has suspected the same players as I have, TheChyz and TheDragoon. Suki also unvoted TheChyz, like I did. First, he didn't actually state what his opinion of my was, but I'm assuming it's positive because he just really seems like he's trying to buddy up with me. So he thinks I'm town just because we've voted on the same people? Derrida I have mixed feelings on his intro post. On the one hand, I don't agree with his reads and don't understand the reasoning behind them. On the other hand, I get the feeling he's trying to contribute. I can definitely tell that it's his first game, particularly the discussion around voting to punctuate one's reads. Balla's put him under a lot of pressure and he seems to be frank and open about his thoughts. I can't say whether he's overall town or scum. His suspicions are all over the place and it's hard to make a read, so I'm gonna put him at null right now and evaluate again when he's contributed more. - - - That's all I have for now. I'll be off and on for a few more hours. | ||
|
suki
Canada1159 Posts
From that, your reason to lynch Asuna was basically due to his inexperience. Not a good enough reason to warrant being lynched. It was also something I can relate with as I myself am prone to making excuses, bandwagoning and having self doubt, if I don't want to be lynched because I have those traits, I certainly don't want others to be as well. This isn't good townie logic. Excuses, bandwagoning and self-doubt may be signs of newbie town, but they are also signs of mafia. You can't excuse someone for displaying mafia traits just because you display them. Again, it feels like you know that Asuna is a newbie town and that's what's suspicious here. Suki to me sounds like a scum trying to take advantage of this situation, to get a townie a guaranteed lynch. I'll have to warn the town about Suki, BigDad, Derrida and possibly Day_Walker (my so called scumbuddy). The pro-town thing to do in your spot is to post the best analysis you can on the scummiest people you can find. This just feels like a last-ditch attempt to try to throw suspicion on everyone who voted you under the pretense of a "defense post" and see if someone bites. | ||
|
suki
Canada1159 Posts
On January 07 2014 15:10 Balla24 wrote: I can't believe how some of you guys are so confident about how dragoon will flip scum. Suki, Jonny specifically.. I think I was pretty clear in my posts as to why I think Dragoon is scum. I feel that his defense of Asuna is a major scum slip and the more he tries to justify it the more I believe it. Dragoon has also not played a pro-town game at all. His only scum reads have been on those who are attacking him, and he hasn't even taken the time to properly form a case. Like, I still don't know why he thinks I'm scummy suki: "Okay then, lets get back to scumhunting :D". A bit too eager to go scumhunting there, don't ya think? Not really a good reason to call him mafia. I think that's the only reason he's given as to why I'm scum. Here is his defense post on me: @Suki I reacted to that inconsistency because he was trying to frame his argument based on the fact that I "changed my mind" about Day_Walker. He said something along the lines of me saying I changed my mind THEN... Day_Walker mentioned something. The only reason why I even mentioned Day_Walker at all is because Balla24 asked me what I thought, then people started putting words in my mouth saying I trusted him. New information pops up, you reread things you change your opinions. How's that scummy at all? Suki to me sounds like a scum trying to take advantage of this situation, to get a townie a guaranteed lynch. Everyone watch out for Suki, her true nature as a scum will be revealed when I get flipped. Where is the analysis? He's just blindly attacking me because hey, I straight up said he's the scummiest person in the game. Same with the other people he's called out. I'd be very surprised if he bleeds green because his play has not been pro-town at all. | ||
|
suki
Canada1159 Posts
| ||
|
suki
Canada1159 Posts
There is only one reason to lynch someone, and that is to catch scum. You do not lynch to get rid of lurkers. You do not lynch to "find information". You lynch to catch scum. I know Day_Walker has posted his reasons why he thinks dnyarri is his #1 scum pick. I'll be looking at that soon. Anyone else who has switched their vote to someone else at this stage of the game because they're scared of a 'mafia bandwagon' will also be looked at closely by me. Chinstrap I disagree with you that people who are defending theDragoon at this point are more likely to be innocent, because it could also be a mafia team going 'oh shit, this is getting serious'. The action of switching shouldn't be the issue, but rather the motivations of switching. Anyways, I'll read the thread and post some thoughts in a bit. This whole 'lynching for information' and thing is just so wrong I don't even know where to start. | ||
|
suki
Canada1159 Posts
I'm saying not saying the act of defending = innocence or guilt. I am saying that defending is a way to buy towncred at this point because it is inherently going against the tide Agreed. | ||
|
suki
Canada1159 Posts
There are only two things that stand out to me in his filter: if Dragoon is scum, we can get him later. As stated in my above post, I do not agree with this line of thought at all. If the Dragoon is scum, then we lynch him. That said, you're arguing that Dragoon is not scum, so your line of thought is consistent. I don't mean that the lurking mafia led the bandwagon by making cases, I mean that they did the bandwagoning I saw two people that I suspect as scum, dnyarri and OWB, contribute early on in the Dragoon lynch (votes 1 and 3) for reasons that didn't look strong to me (again my take is different here, since I'm the only town who knows OWB's accusation was completely untrue). The Town was already suspicious of Dragoon, the lynch took off, and sidesprang capped it off with another scummy-feeling vote. Here you're saying that scum did the bandwagoning (getting on later in the votes), but you're also stipulating that since dnyarri and OWB contributed early on in Dragoon's lynch, that they started the bandwagon. My thoughts on this are that bandwagoning is a weak argument one way or another, and what's more important are the reasons for hopping on or off the bandwagon. TheChyz, I can't say I agree with your analysis of Day_Walker, and at the moment I read him as townie. I can see the argument for theDragoon being a frustrated townie, so I don't find his defense of theDragoon suspicious. I just really think theDragoon is going to flip scum, for all the reasons I mentioned in my previous posts. | ||
|
suki
Canada1159 Posts
On January 07 2014 17:49 Balla24 wrote: one thing about dynarri that i noticed in that big post: read suki as town because they were both doing a lot of the same stuff... feels weird that he specifically points out that last part... why does that matter...? FEELS ODD MAN I already pointed this out in a previous vote and mentioned that it looks like a possible attempt to buddy up with me. Day_Walker pointed something interesting out though: This most heavily rests on my scum read for dnyarri, and the fact that dnyarri placed the very first for Dragoon. Based on the vote, I think it unlikely that both dnyarri AND Dragoon are scum, and this turns my scum read for dnyarri into a town read for Dragoon. And for the reasons I just gave, this sounds a lot more plausible to me than to any other townie. This actually makes sense. At the time that dnyarri switched his vote, theDragoon was pretty much not under any pressure. An insta-switch to a bus on a mafia teammate seems highly highly unlikely. But that only means that it's extremely unlikely that both of them are scum. I really hate the fact that dnyarri only has three posts, and his play has been sending up red flags, but I just can't say he is more scummy to me than theDragoon. | ||
|
suki
Canada1159 Posts
On January 07 2014 18:36 BigDad wrote: My reads for suspicious player currently stand against Dnyarri and theDragoon with less doubt on Day_Walker for his pro-town stance on lynching those who aren't contributing. Lynch to catch scum. I think I've reiterated that enough. Also Day_Walker clearly stated he wanted to catch scummy lurkers, not just people who don't contribute. I'm going to have to go with either theDragoon or dnyarri. BigDad, given Day_Walker/my reasoning that dnyarri was the first to vote theDragoon, do you still think both of them are likely to be scum? If not, who do you think is more likely? | ||
|
suki
Canada1159 Posts
Several recent quotes from Balla: + Show Spoiler + This is the most one sided lynch ever. I'm sorry but this should seriously be making you weary (suki/jonnylaw). The people who are not voting seem to also be tentatively saying that they are ok with the lynch if it were to happen now, besides Day_walker who probably is thinking along the same lines of this tbh. I'm searching for a new target. I really don't like how hard you lurked today sidesprang, so I'd lynch you just based on that, but other than that, I find Derrida pretty scummy. Ugh it's just so hard because I totally can see how scum would buss their teammate in this current situation. It's different than other one-sided lynches in the previous games because of how dragoon shut-down. Like I would totally buss him.. If I were scum, I would probably begin to buss him after he self-voted, so i'd look @ Derrida, suki and sidesprang (if im jsut looking at it chronologically, jonnylaw too) I mean, let's be honest, there is 100% for sure scum in the people who already voted him. Having them have a forced hand on what they think about him might be a good thing. It's gonna be a weight on EVERYONE's back, not just towns. I agree that the lynch on theDragoon is going smoothly, however that could just be mafia seeing the writing on the wall and deciding not to oppose. I agree that the smoothness of the lynch needs to be considered, however in the end we should still be lynching the scummiest person. Do you disagree? Also, you were the second person to vote for theDragoon, and your vote hasn't changed since then. I just want to clarify, do you still find theDragoon to be the most scummy? | ||
|
suki
Canada1159 Posts
| ||
|
suki
Canada1159 Posts
| ||
|
suki
Canada1159 Posts
| ||
| ||
