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cakemanofdoom
Profile Joined September 2009
336 Posts
October 31 2013 18:56 GMT
#460
And whoa, votes for E00e. I'm a bit worried since I don't trust owb or nyx right now, but E00e's still lurky and not posting except when directly called out does look bad enough that I'm okay with lynching him. Guess I'll be switch to vote him soon, unless some other wagon gets going?
cakemanofdoom
Profile Joined September 2009
336 Posts
October 31 2013 19:23 GMT
#469
July would still need to say No lynch rather than no vote I think.

But no lynch would be a bad idea. I want a town directed kill/flip.
cakemanofdoom
Profile Joined September 2009
336 Posts
October 31 2013 20:00 GMT
#488
A scum might push for a no lynch if he doesn't think any towns looks scummier than him enough to get lynched. Or maybe he doesn't want to look bad after his proposed target flips town. Either way, I don't think it's that implausible for a scum to want no lynch.

Right now the fact that owb and nyx both voted for E00e within 5 minutes of each other is making me worry about that vote. I'd still prefer July to die. E00e's flip can still be helpful though, which is why I'm not completely against that lynch.


On November 01 2013 04:41 Balla24 wrote:
Alright, I'd really like people to consider a JonnyLaw lynch. I don't really like the July/E00e lynches and the only reason i'd be willing to lynch them is because they are mostly lurking.

As far as Jonnylaw, it's clear he's not going to get the votes on Odin yet he continues to push for him and doesn't switch his votes to the targets he says he's ok with lynching which would be the most pro-town thing to do since we're in majority lynch.

I'm very confused as to why he wasn't ok with lynching Storr, when storr was lurking just as much as July/E00e/Nyx etc.. just because he thought "storr would post before deadline".


I'm not sure how much people suspect Jonny right now, and I won't switch my vote to him except as a last resort to prevent a no lynch. And actually, I can somewhat understand Jonny's thoughts on Storr (unlees that post happened earlier than I thought). Storr had been posting semi-useful filler, and promised real content, so it makes sense to expect more from him than other lurkers.
cakemanofdoom
Profile Joined September 2009
336 Posts
October 31 2013 20:16 GMT
#498
I don't like how July suddenly picked poofter (who had 0 votes beforehand) out of the lurky people to vote for. It can only cause confusion at this point. I wanna keep my vote on July atm.

I guess I'm suspicious of odin enough to vote for him if it comes down to him. I don't have a lot of trust for the current voters, but I'm not trusting a lot people in the game period so I guess there's no way around that.
cakemanofdoom
Profile Joined September 2009
336 Posts
October 31 2013 20:30 GMT
#507
At first, I didn't want to lynch odin before he had more chances to read and talk. And others seemed more scummy to me at the moment. Odin was suspicious to me, but it didn't seem like it would be possible to get him lynched.

July's posts are erratic, but I can see mafia motivations behind his most recent one so I like the lynch. Odin's chaos wasn't that close to voting deadline, and I think conversation starting was still a good idea at the time.


cakemanofdoom
Profile Joined September 2009
336 Posts
October 31 2013 20:33 GMT
#509
Lynching purely on inactivity isn't as good as lynching someone scummy. First priority right now, I think, is to consolidate votes on someone we agree is suspicious/useless, and voting someone who had 0 votes is very counterproductive to that.

Storr, July's voting/pushing poofter not me.
cakemanofdoom
Profile Joined September 2009
336 Posts
October 31 2013 20:36 GMT
#511
The earlier no lynch vote or the current poofter vote?
No lynch would prevent town from getting information from a town-directed flip, while giving mafia a free kill and the ability to try the same thing the next day.
Voting for someone with 0 votes makes it less likely for any vote to pass, leading to the same result. Plus, if anyone jumps on poofter with him (maybe he was hoping me since I've suspected poofter pretty heavily) that just divides town's votes even more.
cakemanofdoom
Profile Joined September 2009
336 Posts
October 31 2013 20:44 GMT
#514
Hmm, I was on track to keeping my vote on July, which would be right if he's scum and splitting votes.
I think split votes also confuses town, and makes them more desperate for any bandwagon to prevent a no vote. Might make it easier for scum to lead a vote on a target of their choice, even if town normally wouldn't consider that target a top lynch candidate. There are 3 hours till voting deadline, which is still enough for mafia to try and pull something.
cakemanofdoom
Profile Joined September 2009
336 Posts
October 31 2013 21:48 GMT
#536
What do we learn if Odin flips town?
cakemanofdoom
Profile Joined September 2009
336 Posts
November 01 2013 03:14 GMT
#673
I don't really know what to think of the Jonny vs. Odin. Jonny's cases were usually pretty bad, while Odin's first case doesn't seem to reference anything past the early game (or say anything new as far as I can tell). Then they started jumping on each other, even before night. Both look kinda suspicious. I don't think I can get much out of their arguing at each other.
cakemanofdoom
Profile Joined September 2009
336 Posts
November 01 2013 03:21 GMT
#674
I've thought poofter was scummy for a while, can we talk about him?

More recently, his votepost on July sounded too defensive to me. He harped on his own activity compared to July, which seems silly since you don't really have to defend inactivity claims when you can just start posting more consistently.
cakemanofdoom
Profile Joined September 2009
336 Posts
November 01 2013 03:50 GMT
#676
I don't like how little content owb is bringing. His first read post consists of nudging people away from nyx and July, while calling me scummy but not super scummy. As I said earlier, this sounds like a fake attempt at contribution. From there he bandwagons onto storr, which was pretty easy at that point.
He votes on E00e, which was just the largest bandwagon at the time. In other words, an easy lynch. It seems like the whole game he didn't contribute much.
It's mainly his early game posts about meta stuff, followed by a rather indecisive reads post, that makes me think him a scum trying to fake helpfulness. Then his later posts don't make him seem better, since he just follows trends.


nyx hasn't really posted anything I liked all game. He has retracted all his scum reads (on me, van, and e00e), while his vote on Odin sounded like he was just trying to not kill E00e rather than actually have an opinion on who's scum.


And just as I'm about to post this I reread your post. Van, were you asking me about poofter rather than my opinions on other people?
cakemanofdoom
Profile Joined September 2009
336 Posts
November 01 2013 04:04 GMT
#679
First thing about poofter was that he began attacking me by talking about the fact that I didn't address Balla. I think that's a really weak reason to attack, since Balla didn't bring up anything unique that would guarantee my lynch if I didn't address him. I think he posted that to sound like he's coming up with new stuff while just copying other people's opinions on me, the reasonable/easy target.

He talks more about real life than anyone else, as far as I can tell. I don't know why he felt that need, and I think such posts do little but excuse lurking.

Then, he mostly posts when people call him out, which sounded defensive to me. He never really volunteered his own reads, and in fact he primarily attacked people who had attacked him (me, Jonny, later July).


His latest defense/case against me, I really didn't like. His summary was, "So your end claim is that you think I'm scummy and am a reasonable lynch because I'm being logical, and pointing out your admittedly bad posts and I have talked about rl things early on. I think that line of logic I can't agree with. "
which obviously isn't what I said. I thought his posts weren't helpful despite being logical, and I didn't like the thing about Balla that he added to his attack on my bad posts. Seems like he's ignoring my actual points and attacking me like my concessions were the only thing I posted.

cakemanofdoom
Profile Joined September 2009
336 Posts
November 01 2013 19:52 GMT
#755
I've avoided talking about Jonny because he confuses the crap out of me. His cases were on van, poofter, and odin, who were the main people attacking me. He was the first to call me noob town rather than mafia, and he seems to have been defending me pretty consistently throughout.

I don't know why he'd do this as town. He gave a terrible case on van, as well as cases on poofter and odin. The odin case seems to focus on the reading thing way too much (I was personally wondering about that, but I wouldn't have called odin scum just for that. The poofter case was mostly thing I agreed with, actually, though I don't remember if I posted Jonny's points first. The formatting confused me at first, so I didn't care much for it before.
If he's town, it's probably just a weird coincidence that just about all of his targets have been on me, and bad cases are just bad towniness. I'd also think that he was just applying pressure to his targets (or at least van) since I'm not sure he'd even convince himself with his van argument. I don't wanna just chalk it up to coincidence, though, and his case on van was flat out terrible (I didn't agree with a single thing he said) and calling that van case a way to pressure poofter is sketchy.

I don't know why he'd do this as mafia. Suspicion was on me, and I think mafia would have preferred to keep it on me rather than be the first to defend me. Maybe he thought I looked town and wanted to clear himself after I flipped town somehow, but it seems like there would be better people to do that on, like someone who's more likely to get lynched. Maybe he wanted to implicate me, but he implicates himself just as hard, and I don't think that's a worthwhile trade for mafia. Just looks like weird/bad mafia play to me.


So yeah, if I didn't have my role pm I'd think there's a good chance that we're both mafia (or maybe he knew we were both town, like we were masons or something. Didn't think too hard into this possibility since it's minor and not true). The alternatives don't make much sense.

But since I know I'm vanilla town, if he was mafia I don't think linking himself to me would be helpful to mafia.


I'm left wondering what town should do about Jonny and me... Killing Jonny seems to be the best choice. If he flips town then his actions no longer implicate me so unless I'm missing something we'd have to rely on other details in suspecting me. If he flips scum, I guess I'd be dead soon too, but 1 vanilla town for one scum seems like a good tradeoff for town. Killing me first... Jonny would seem scummy if I flipped scum, but I'd flip town which doesn't give much info about Jonny.

Well, we have time until the lynch. We can get more information from night actions and the posts until lynchtime, so I think it would be best to look for and kill even more suspicious people in case we're both town.




For what it's worth, I generally liked how Jonny pushed the town (like being aggressive at lurkers to make them talk and contribute). However, I don't like his pushing Odin so hard at the vote; his ultimatum sounded more sure of himself than he had any right to be:
On November 01 2013 02:03 JonnyLaw wrote:
We have 5-6 people here. Read what I just posted and tell me how Odin's posting helped or why you think it will help the town to win this game?

If you cannot then vote odin.

Plenty of other people made posts that weren't helpful to town, like our mislynch July. Also, he complains that the July lynch wouldn't get us information if July flipped town, but I don't really see how Odin flipping town would give information either.
So to summarize: aside from that confusing stuff about him and me, I think Jonny's tone and direction were good and towny, but his particular choice of actions and cases are questionable.

Pointing out decent directions that town should go in seems like it would be easier for mafia than making good cases, though, so Jonny would normally appear scummy to me if I don't consider that connection between us.
cakemanofdoom
Profile Joined September 2009
336 Posts
November 02 2013 00:17 GMT
#771
Think the kill makes sense. Van's been extremely towny, and compared to Balla I think van did more scumhunting and less town guiding (or maybe Balla's scumhunting was just less noticeable amidst the town guidance). I'd imagine scumhunting is scarier.

...and Van's last post called me and Jonny scum together. Oh boy.
I think the mafia would have had time to discuss things and avoid a knee-jerk kill. They might have wanted to make a wrong belief of Van's more believable, or they could just be killing a strong town player.
cakemanofdoom
Profile Joined September 2009
336 Posts
November 02 2013 03:15 GMT
#805
I never saw anyone who actually liked July's posting at that point. I personally didn't, and it felt like several people had called him out/mentioned suspicion of him at some point or another. I remembered van had mentioned preferring to vote for July over E00e. A few people had opposed a nyx lynch, and I personally didn't like the idea of a lynch on E00e since his posts weren't that bad. Sure, Balla wanted you dead Jonny, but I didn't see support coming for that since I thought some people had town reads on you.

I'm not sure we should be looking too deeply into Van's death. He's strong enough of a town player that mafia might just want him dead even if it incriminates them imo. Also, exact opposite interpretations can be made of his death: either van's suspects are mafia and wanted to kill their accuser, or those suspects are innocent since they would never incriminate themselves by killing a vocal accuser like that. But of course, if the mafia knew the latter, they might feel safe killing their accusers and expecting town to think that they'd never do that...


So vonthin, do you think owb is mafia?
cakemanofdoom
Profile Joined September 2009
336 Posts
November 02 2013 03:27 GMT
#806
I don't mean disregard Van's opinions, of course. But I think it's better to just take his reads based on the arguments he provides rather than the fact that he died.

For example, anyone else have opinions on the Jonny/me connection he brings up? That's confusing me and one of the reasons I don't know what to think of Jonny.
cakemanofdoom
Profile Joined September 2009
336 Posts
November 02 2013 04:01 GMT
#811
I'm wondering why you voted after I asked you... you didn't decide to vote with your case, and not much should have changed after I asked.

Balla, can you clarify your reasoning as to why you think there's a mafia who's experienced in an active town?
cakemanofdoom
Profile Joined September 2009
336 Posts
November 02 2013 04:55 GMT
#817
poor tl server...

I agree that Storr doesn't look very good atm. I don't know quite what to think about the comfort with activity argument because I've never read anything like it before, but Storr really hasn't been posting opinions on a lot of people. Even now, he's had far more posts talking about how town should be acting than about who he thinks is scum. Since his reads on me and July he's only talked about Nyx.

I feel like if he actually wanted something town-favored done, he could have been finding scum rather than just directing town around.
cakemanofdoom
Profile Joined September 2009
336 Posts
November 02 2013 05:32 GMT
#821
Somewhat minor thing Vonthin, I would have preferred to see that big paragraph broken up into smaller ones.

and all those posts that you say make you feel better about E00e come before your list calling him scum. What's up with that? At the time of the list you didn't say 50/50 or anything, you call him scum. He has made zero posts since then and now you call him 50/50?
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