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So here's what I don't like about Asinine's analysis'.
I don't like how he's analyzing only a group of people. If he really wanted to leave town with a definite understanding of where he stood, then he'd be analyzing the thread in the whole, not just looking at specific people. So that's weird to me.
He finds several townie reads and then says lynch with fire. His only reasoning is that jack's vote on hz is suspicious. It is suspicious but there are possible justificatinos. He said he wanted to lynch someone to get information, HZ more then fuba who was afk would provide information. Furthermore, he could have simply made a bad choice as he voted like basically last second and was mainly afk.
In fact, only voting and not justifying it is something scum would very very very very very very very very much try to avoid.
Town should avoid it but don't always.
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Hi guys. I'm actually headed out shortly so I wont be caught up until tomorrow evening at the earliest. Thankfully its nighttime so I have some time. If you have anything you would like me to focus on when I go to read the thread (I haven't yet) please let me know. kthxbai.
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So he misreads Jack, then because of that misread says he deserves to be lynched with fire other then less definitive statements despite him showing town reads. Maybe Asinine just made a bad analysis, but it doesn't help his cause and I definitely feel like it is bad logic.
This is really why I want to know who Asinine is so I can compare his play.
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On November 03 2013 07:26 Hopeless1der wrote:
Hi guys. I'm actually headed out shortly so I wont be caught up until tomorrow evening at the earliest. Thankfully its nighttime so I have some time. If you have anything you would like me to focus on when I go to read the thread (I haven't yet) please let me know. kthxbai.
If you're a vig, me and Grack are confirmed town and please shoot Asinine.
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I don't think it's certain he's scum, but does anyone have any reasons why he might be town?
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Bereft you didn't answer my question.
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United States4714 Posts
Asinine you are definitely grasping at straws with your LJ analysis. Do you really think LJ is a better lynch than someone like Oats? What are your thoughts on Oats?
I am here now Pandain!
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i'm here, was reading JJD's filter
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United States4714 Posts
Asinine's analysis of tehpoofter is pretty bad as well. Tehpoofter and Stutters voted the same minute for fuba so they were essentially tied for the hammer vote on a scum. Definitely not someone that should be considered for lynch tomorrow.
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right now i'd say he's likely town. his first hz case coupled with his advocation of a lurker lynch close to the deadline when there's no vote consolidation speaks to either a pretty transparent mafia player or a townie who's not very cautious to how he's being perceived.
if he's a pretty transparent mafia player, the vote on fuba would not be in line with previous behavior.
not as confident with this read as i am with grackapack -- would like to hear his current reads. previously everyone was operating under the assumption he was an overwhelmed newbie, but he's actually played quite a few games so it's very possible i'm underestimating him.
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Ultimately, and this is I guess the last I'll post since I feel like I've been feeding off of old information and there's nothing really new, there are mainly only town reads on Grack and JarJar that we can gain from this. I don't think it's definitive that scum wouldn't have bussed fuba, so I don't think Stutters/Tehpoofter are clear(though should not be lynched tomorrow), but I don't think they would've helped brought him into the open like JarJar.
Anything else is ultimately speculative.
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On November 03 2013 07:22 Bereft wrote:asinine, what's with the self-sacrificial post volunteering to get vig'ed?? if you are town as you say and you are vig'ed, assuming no doctor saves, we now have 2 instead of 3 mislynches: Show nested quote +On November 03 2013 05:17 Pandain wrote:
9-3 DAY 2 STARTS
8-3 MISLYNCH
7-3 DAY 3 STARTS
6-3 MISLYNCH
5-3 DAY 4 STARTS
4-3 MISLYNCH
So we have at least three more lynches, unless a vig shoots a town. Last lynch will of course be trickiest if we don't lynch scum.
8-3 DAY 2 STARTS 7-3 MISLYNCH 6-3 DAY 3 STARTS 5-3 MISLYNCH
Yeah, but if I don't get vigged and you mislynch me on Day 2, we are in the same position except with one less Day to lynch scum with.
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United States4714 Posts
With nearly 1/3rd of the players in this game being mafia I think it is pretty optimistic to think that none of the mafia voted for Fuba (unless hermeane's replacement ends up being mafia).
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United States1302 Posts
On November 03 2013 02:14 Mig wrote:
Anyone who has any common sense whatsoever should realize pretty easily that I am town. I put legitimate effort into scum hunting all of yesterday, before I had to leave.
This post from Mig seems so disingenuous. I can understand him defending himself by pointing out that he was scum hunting. But does he really believe that someone thinking he's scum means that person has no common sense simply because he "put legitimate effort into scum hunting"? Where was Migs common sense when voting for hzflank, who put more effort into scum hunting than most did?
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On November 03 2013 07:51 Mig wrote:
With nearly 1/3rd of the players in this game being mafia I think it is pretty optimistic to think that none of the mafia voted for Fuba (unless hermeane's replacement ends up being mafia).
I would agree with this and I think the most likely person to be mafia on the lynch is poofter, (No real analysis yet this game, stutters looks pretty towny and Odin's vote was more important) but that doesn't mean it's not a good idea to focus on the people not on the lynch for tomorrow's lynch.
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On November 03 2013 07:25 Pandain wrote:
So here's what I don't like about Asinine's analysis'.
I don't like how he's analyzing only a group of people. If he really wanted to leave town with a definite understanding of where he stood, then he'd be analyzing the thread in the whole, not just looking at specific people. So that's weird to me.
He finds several townie reads and then says lynch with fire. His only reasoning is that jack's vote on hz is suspicious. It is suspicious but there are possible justificatinos. He said he wanted to lynch someone to get information, HZ more then fuba who was afk would provide information. Furthermore, he could have simply made a bad choice as he voted like basically last second and was mainly afk.
In fact, only voting and not justifying it is something scum would very very very very very very very very much try to avoid.
Town should avoid it but don't always.
I'm analyzing the people I think are scum. The purpose of these posts is not to convince anyone I am town, it is to post my reads in full honesty so you can refer to them as you progress through the game after my demise.
When I say I see some townie things about jack's filter, it is because I think that the first half of his Day 1 play looked townie. I am not going to omit information because it does help my argument. Honesty is the best policy.
LJ's vote and behavior post-lynch trumps any goodwill he earned from the townie mentality he seemed to have during the early part of Day 1.
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On November 03 2013 07:47 Bereft wrote:
right now i'd say he's likely town. his first hz case coupled with his advocation of a lurker lynch close to the deadline when there's no vote consolidation speaks to either a pretty transparent mafia player or a townie who's not very cautious to how he's being perceived.
if he's a pretty transparent mafia player, the vote on fuba would not be in line with previous behavior.
not as confident with this read as i am with grackapack -- would like to hear his current reads. previously everyone was operating under the assumption he was an overwhelmed newbie, but he's actually played quite a few games so it's very possible i'm underestimating him.
Who are you referring to in this post?
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On November 03 2013 07:52 JarJarDrinks wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2013 02:14 Mig wrote:
Anyone who has any common sense whatsoever should realize pretty easily that I am town. I put legitimate effort into scum hunting all of yesterday, before I had to leave. This post from Mig seems so disingenuous. I can understand him defending himself by pointing out that he was scum hunting. But does he really believe that someone thinking he's scum means that person has no common sense simply because he "put legitimate effort into scum hunting"? Where was Migs common sense when voting for hzflank, who put more effort into scum hunting than most did?
Mig comes from a different period of mafia play! I am convinced that 2 years ago for the most part townies were the only ones scumhunting.
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United States4714 Posts
I would challenge anyone to go and read hzflanks Titanic game and compare it to this one. His posting was 100x more confident and pro town in that game. I wasn't around for the 2 hours before lynch but to act like hzflank was ridiculously pro town before that is retarded.
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EPT
