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On October 21 2013 09:27 Mocsta wrote:
Palomar pm is not relevant because that is mod generated.
Whereas the message I got I am certain was written by cephiro now.
I received my pm about 5min after cycle post..so it suggests cephiro was aware of the phrase Dumbledore army.
He's prob a good option for sk...and fits into rayn theory of being in his house. Also explains why his emotion felt real.
You are aware that Sno gave an explanation for the night kills without a SK?
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United Kingdom30774 Posts
On October 21 2013 08:49 raynpelikonoshi wrote:Show nested quote +On October 21 2013 08:44 Mocsta wrote:On October 21 2013 08:34 StorrZerg wrote:
can syllo and mocasta name claim at this point? no I won't rayn I know what ceph meant. 6 of us know. but we are not allowed to talk about it. I don't know what the consequences are though. sorry. Ok cool. I think Mattchew and Storrzerg are both scum. And with that I go to bed. gn.
I do not think storr is scum. He has been asking way too many questions and throwing out ideas of what we shold do than anyone else. I do not think his house cop claim was a lie eithr.
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This really needs to get explained
im so lost
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United Kingdom30774 Posts
On October 21 2013 09:37 justanothertownie wrote:Show nested quote +On October 21 2013 09:27 Mocsta wrote:
Palomar pm is not relevant because that is mod generated.
Whereas the message I got I am certain was written by cephiro now.
I received my pm about 5min after cycle post..so it suggests cephiro was aware of the phrase Dumbledore army.
He's prob a good option for sk...and fits into rayn theory of being in his house. Also explains why his emotion felt real.
You are aware that Sno gave an explanation for the night kills without a SK?
He said he had an explanation, didn't say what it was
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On October 21 2013 09:39 Holyflare wrote:Show nested quote +On October 21 2013 09:37 justanothertownie wrote:On October 21 2013 09:27 Mocsta wrote:
Palomar pm is not relevant because that is mod generated.
Whereas the message I got I am certain was written by cephiro now.
I received my pm about 5min after cycle post..so it suggests cephiro was aware of the phrase Dumbledore army.
He's prob a good option for sk...and fits into rayn theory of being in his house. Also explains why his emotion felt real.
You are aware that Sno gave an explanation for the night kills without a SK? He said he had an explanation, didn't say what it was
That's what I meant.
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is it just best to kill ceph today since he stinks of dirty magic?
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On October 19 2013 05:21 Cephiro wrote:
I don't even.....
My newly-found lovers will understand why I don't know whether to laugh or cry, chances of this co-incidence happening is too small to be true.
The thing is, as charming as I am, this relationship is smart and works one-way only. And I will meet you all only once a day. I don't have time for more. This is why you must use the words of our secret love if you want to talk to me in public without others knowing. Or each other, if you want to surprise me with a menage-a-trois. Please do not be afraid to sacrifice yourselves for my love, as I will grow stronger for the sacrifices you make. ♥
As for a non-roleplay note: It's unfortunate that the lynch ended up like this, but I will redeem my play and ensure this won't happen again. On October 20 2013 05:12 Cephiro wrote:
Haha, that is absolutely amazing! 3 scum dead by the start of D2? And I just got more powerful too. Tis be great.
Blue ==> This is Cephiro stating that he is in the "Dumbledore Army" group and is the unspecified pm "captain"
Red ==> Cephiro suggests he becomes more powerful as the group diminishes... This is the re-stated post night-cycle where 3 of the 4 members die.
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As I stated, I have no idea what the outcome of "being stronger" is.
All I know is that the PM sent was manipulative (in that it asked us not to speak about it in the thread unless we use the codewords.. and that it would be all explained the next day).
I suppose technically it was explained via the posts that Cephiro made. I know in Personality2, we had a Sleeper Cell power where we could group 3 random people, and they had the power to group vote a KP. It was a scum power.
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In hindsight of the flips, Rayn is right.. Cephiro list post was really bad.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20011990
Note: Dumbledore Army: Pandain + LastArgument + Mocsta + Toad
From his notes:
3. Pandain - Probably Town
12. I-be-Pro - Seems ok, good points. Pro-town. Setup speculation.
Thinks his role is anti-town.
19. Mocsta - Self-aware Miller claim. Seems like town. Would fit within theme.
(Good guy Slytherin looks bad because Slytherin?) Plays pro-town. Coin?
17. LastArgument - Valid point, I like. Coin?
All these people are town reads, yet are required to die to progress Cephiro.
On one hand you could argue he expected these people to be shot/lynched, thus was trying to rush to maximising the strength of his power.. however; realistically, I only expect LastArgument to satisfy that criteria (possibly myself as well).
I dont think anyone expected pandain to be shot/lynched; nor Toad.
On the other hand, I would have expected town to diversify the role requirements (i.e. 1 or 2 townies expected to die Night 1 + an obvious scum read + an obvious lynch candidate). Without knowing his role PM, I believe this is how I would have gone about it?
Then note that he appears obsessed with this "coin."
21. Hopeless1der - A bit more careful in the G+2H discussion. Town?
Interesting ability speculation. Reasonable in his opinions. Coin?
Maybe not very tricky?
So why is Pandain/Toad (coinless reference) in the group instead of Hopeless1der
So in summary
I dont see much risk in a mislynch this cycle, as we already downed 3 scum so are relatively ahead. (Obviously I would prefer to avoid this and clean sweep from here out)
So the main risk I see in lynching Cephiro is: he is close to maxing out his power (pending my death) and he could be a super town role?
The opposite also applies: he could be scum close to maxing out a super anti-town role.
Note: Scum already have lost a very powerful wizard role in Pandain + we have a JOAT claim from a townie looking person. Thus even if Cephiro is town, I dont think we necessarily need that power to compensate for a town deficiency.
Hence, I think the risk/reward points towards a Cephiro lynch.
##Unvote
##Vote: Cephiro
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On October 21 2013 09:37 justanothertownie wrote:Show nested quote +On October 21 2013 09:27 Mocsta wrote:
Palomar pm is not relevant because that is mod generated.
Whereas the message I got I am certain was written by cephiro now.
I received my pm about 5min after cycle post..so it suggests cephiro was aware of the phrase Dumbledore army.
He's prob a good option for sk...and fits into rayn theory of being in his house. Also explains why his emotion felt real.
You are aware that Sno gave an explanation for the night kills without a SK?
Yeah I did read it, but was on phone so haven't had a chance to mull it over.
We can safely assume that ET knew he was linked to Toad.
So it does seem likely ET was killed due to this power from Sn0 and him using the 0.5KP. This would then also apply to Pandain.
The other option is that a SK took out Pandain & a town vig took out ET, thus taking out Toad.
Due to the quantity of NKs; Sn0's "power" seems more plausible.
So: LoneMeow/LastArgument/Supersoft.
Now: If 3 scum are dead, I would expect KP to be 1 as per OP (but depends on how hosts resolve night actions). Lets say KP is still 2.. we still require that 2 KP to be delivered by members that were not dead (probably same resolution process as above). So assume 2 KP; LastArgument makes a lot of sense. With Syllo a likely medic save, Supersoft also makes sense. So OK, then a vig of some sort on LoneMeow.
Thats A LOT of KP though; and its also interesting to note that Cephiro wrote nothing about LoneMeow in his list post.
So we come back to whether
LoneMeow was taken out by town vig power; or SK.
I don't think Cephiro can be easily dismissed as an SK (and I would prefer a town vig not to claim the kill, as they probably not 1-shot).
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On October 20 2013 05:12 Cephiro wrote:
Haha, that is absolutely amazing! 3 scum dead by the start of D2? And I just got more powerful too. Tis be great. I wanted to add that this statement is *VERY* misleading.
The assertion is that: 3 scum are dead & I am more powerful.
For those that do not know about his "Dumbledore Army" it is easy to 'gap analyse' this as... AWESOME, cephiro is town because 3 scum are dead and now he is more powerful.
This is not the case at all; rather.. 3 members of his group died, thus, he became more powerful.
Very misleading; and again, not a comment/assertion I would expect from a town player.
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Has Cephiro been posting in the QT?
if so is it possible Cephiro cannot post unless he has votes on himself? maybe being the vote leader?
(maybe he can only post at night because of this)
Cause he only started posting when he got a lead in votes iirc
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No as I said earlier Cephiro posted only once after his post-lynch apologising spree. It was directly after the Daypost and he just said how happy he was about the result.
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hmmm
well is policy lynching him good then because he is failing to live up to his word on scum hunting?
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[QUOTE]On October 21 2013 10:15 StorrZerg wrote:
Has Cephiro been posting in the QT?
if so is it possible Cephiro cannot post unless he has votes on himself? maybe being the vote leader?
(maybe he can only post at night because of this)
Cause he only started posting when he got a lead in votes iirc
[QUOTE]On October 20 2013 05:12 Cephiro wrote:
Haha, that is absolutely amazing! 3 scum dead by the start of D2? And I just got more powerful too. Tis be great.[/QUOTE]
/QUOTE]
Was this not quoted at the start of Day2? He was not a vote leader.
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EBWOP
On October 21 2013 10:15 StorrZerg wrote:
Has Cephiro been posting in the QT?
if so is it possible Cephiro cannot post unless he has votes on himself? maybe being the vote leader?
(maybe he can only post at night because of this)
Cause he only started posting when he got a lead in votes iirc
On October 20 2013 05:12 Cephiro wrote:
Haha, that is absolutely amazing! 3 scum dead by the start of D2? And I just got more powerful too. Tis be great.
Was this not quoted at the start of Day2? He was not a vote leader.
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On October 21 2013 10:09 Mocsta wrote:Show nested quote +On October 21 2013 09:37 justanothertownie wrote:On October 21 2013 09:27 Mocsta wrote:
Palomar pm is not relevant because that is mod generated.
Whereas the message I got I am certain was written by cephiro now.
I received my pm about 5min after cycle post..so it suggests cephiro was aware of the phrase Dumbledore army.
He's prob a good option for sk...and fits into rayn theory of being in his house. Also explains why his emotion felt real.
You are aware that Sno gave an explanation for the night kills without a SK? Yeah I did read it, but was on phone so haven't had a chance to mull it over. We can safely assume that ET knew he was linked to Toad. So it does seem likely ET was killed due to this power from Sn0 and him using the 0.5KP. This would then also apply to Pandain. The other option is that a SK took out Pandain & a town vig took out ET, thus taking out Toad. Due to the quantity of NKs; Sn0's "power" seems more plausible. So: LoneMeow/LastArgument/Supersoft. Now: If 3 scum are dead, I would expect KP to be 1 as per OP (but depends on how hosts resolve night actions). Lets say KP is still 2.. we still require that 2 KP to be delivered by members that were not dead (probably same resolution process as above). So assume 2 KP; LastArgument makes a lot of sense. With Syllo a likely medic save, Supersoft also makes sense. So OK, then a vig of some sort on LoneMeow. Thats A LOT of KP though; and its also interesting to note that Cephiro wrote nothing about LoneMeow in his list post. So we come back to whether LoneMeow was taken out by town vig power; or SK. I don't think Cephiro can be easily dismissed as an SK (and I would prefer a town vig not to claim the kill, as they probably not 1-shot).
I agree with this analysis. If Cephiro is antitown he might need time (like Pandain)/dead people in his army to get the really powerful abilities which he probably did not have N1.
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sorry my bad...
was trying to look to see if there might be a reason why he isn't allowed to post that much
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On October 21 2013 10:20 StorrZerg wrote:
hmmm
well is policy lynching him good then because he is failing to live up to his word on scum hunting?
It probably comes down to
Cephiro
OR
Someone in Hufflepuff due to house check.
OR
Yamato
Im willing to give BH another cycle to man up
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On October 21 2013 10:20 StorrZerg wrote:
hmmm
well is policy lynching him good then because he is failing to live up to his word on scum hunting?
Well, if he doesn't at least show up and there is no explanation by him... he deserves to be lynched.
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JAT why did you say Palmar should be in Dumbledore's army?
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On October 21 2013 10:27 Grackaroni wrote:
JAT why did you say Palmar should be in Dumbledore's army?
Look at his rolepm.
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EPT
