EPT/in
Thug Life Mini Mafia
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
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GLHF! | ||
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Chairman Ray
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I've lightly skimmed through posts so far, and I take it that Koshi is winning votes because of RNG? Filtering through his posts, it's pretty clear that he's aggravated by this decision by town. I'm gonna put myself in his shoes for a sec. If I was town, and everyone was gonna RNG lynch me, then I would just be like wtf... I definitely wouldn't be angry since it's not due to my own lack of skill or other people's misreads, but sheer luck instead. Once I flip town, then the townies will just feel really stupid for doing it and I'd be okay with that. Now what if I was in Koshi's shoes and I was mafia? I would probably be a bit aggravated to push town off me, and if I flip red, then people will probably celebrate at my expense. But the thing is that I am not Koshi, so I don't share his feelings or thought process, so this read might be off. To people that have played with Koshi before, would you expect this kind of behavior from town or mafia Koshi? I definitely think that by his behavior, he is more likely mafia. Another thing that's consistent with Koshi being mafia is that there are others trying to save him. If Koshi were town, then it could be possible that there is no effort to save him, light effort to save him, or heavy effort to save him. Anything is possible. If Koshi were mafia, I would bet that his mafia buddies wouldn't give up on him so easily, especially on D1. Since the RNG thing is so stupid, then his mafia buddies could easily make a case for it and not seem scummy in the process. So if Koshi were mafia, I would bet that there is some heavy effort to save him. Right now, we do see some heavy effort, in the form of the yamato train. Although this could happen if Koshi was either town or mafia, I suspect it is more likely if he were mafia. Because of these reasons, I think there's a good chance that Koshi is actually scum, and we got really lucky with the RNG. Just for now ##Vote: Koshi I will be up for a bit more reading through posts. I would like to think about it a bit more before leaving for the night with a read that came from RNG. | ||
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##Vote: yamato77 | ||
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On September 29 2013 04:44 WaveofShadow wrote: And why do you think that was, CR? Let's talk, good buddy. Did you get that coaching you needed since Noire? Haven't gotten coaching from Noire yet. Was gonna ask Yamato since we had the most interaction, but since we're in the same game right now, that would be inappropriate, so Ima ask him after this game is over. Would you be able to explain to me the whole RNG thing on Koshi, and the Yamato train? Was the RNG thing a setup to get a good scumread on people? | ||
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On September 29 2013 06:21 Koshi wrote: I would make a doc and vig list but meh. Does any1 know if we get noticed if shot with vest. Or can some1 ask host. Thx. 11 Civilians - all Civilians have a single one-use bulletproof vest which will protect them from 1 KP that night. If they are shot at and survive, they will be notified. | ||
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So I'm reading through the roles and stuff. I have a couple regarding the molotov cocktail. Does it frame someone or protect someone from actions? | ||
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As for killing BH, from reading the thread, I think BH was killed by someone who had some sort of relation to him. Most of BH's posts were about the whole RNG thing. If I was scum, I wouldn't shoot BH in hopes that he wastes more time on d2. This leads me to believe that the scum team that shot BH wasn't just 3 lurkers, and at least one of them had to have some strong interaction with BH. So I think there are three possible motives: 1. BH was shot because he was strongly pushing against FT and this kill was to protect FT. This kill also really puts the spotlight on FT, but at the same time that's also a reason scum could use to make FT seem innocent. In the end, it becomes an endless chain or circular logic that we can't really look into. The simplest solution is that this kill really benefited FT, and I think FT looks scummy because of it. 2. BH was shot so that a discussion can be made around FT, which creates a diversion from someone else who already looks kinda scummy. If this were true, it would also be consistent with my read that the scum team isn't 3 lurkers with no relation to BH. I would need to read more into the thread to see who could be scum in this case. 3. Near the end, BH was giving a strong townread on palmer. Palmer was active at this point. BH might have been killed so to give his townread on palmer more credibility. This gives Palmer an incentive to kill BH if he was scum. However, looking through his filter, I actually think Palmer is quite town, so I dunno here. One other thing I am willing to gamble on is that Palmer and FirmTofu cannot be in the same scum team. Killing BH would draw way too much unnecessary attention on them, and also it would be really weird for them to kill BH when he's giving a scumread on one of them and a townread on the other. I don't think they would kill BH even to be meta. Right now I'm going to be looking more into FT. However, I don't want to vote him this early on simply because he's the easiest target, and if he flips town, it will not put us in a good position. | ||
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On September 30 2013 07:44 VayneAuthority wrote: chairman ray at least read the OP please. BH was not shot by the police, it is actually impossible. What about lethal force? | ||
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On September 30 2013 07:48 VayneAuthority wrote: and who in the thread currently would use lethal force on a person that can be very useful as town when you can just precision shot him? Yeah, that's why I said I don't think police would have used it. I probably shouldn't have even bothered mentioning it since it was so obvious. | ||
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On September 30 2013 07:52 Pandain wrote: All the above is irrelevant anyway. Doesn't matter or indicate alignment if they know set-up or not. Ray why did you switch from Koshi to Yam when you thought Koshi was "a likely scum read". Are you all caught up with the thread? I am pretty caught up with the thread. The reason I switched from Koshi to Yamato was because at the time, Koshi was leading by a large margin. I swapped my vote so make the votes a lot closer. This would give others the opportunity to swap or people who voted a useless vote to all make a difference. I feel that later on if we figure out that Koshi is scum, then I will focus on looking at the people who swapped after me, and try to get reads on them. | ||
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On September 30 2013 08:03 Grackaroni wrote: lol ok but how did you think that would effect our reads on you? Yeah, I suppose it does make me look kinda scummy, which is something I really need to work on in my play. At the time, I wasn't under fire, so I figured my efforts would be best put trying to get a better read on others. Mafia have it bit easier in that they only have to focus on blending in. I find playing town a lot harder since I have to strike some balance between finding scum, and not making myself look scummy in the process. | ||
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On September 30 2013 08:18 Pandain wrote: The last sentence. The first time I played as town, most of my posts and votes were basically constructed methods to elicit reactions from people and I would try to read into these reactions and compare them to how they interact with others. Hopefully, this will enable me to find some inconsistencies to give me a better idea of scum teams. The result was that I got lynched on day 1. The last game I also got mislynched on d1. After feedback from coaches, I figured that I also needed to be a lot more transparent and vocal so that I can help town by not letting them mislynch me. Currently that's what I'm trying to improve upon. Anyways, I am open to any tips while the game is going on, but I don't want it to detract too much from the discussion at hand. | ||
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On September 30 2013 08:34 Pandain wrote: Ray, do you want to vote FT with me now to get pressure going? If he's scum, it will force them to make a move. Yeah, I'm okay with that ##Vote: FirmTofu | ||
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Chairman Ray
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I think it's safe to say that FirmTofu and ShiaoPi are not associated. I say this because FirmTofu is strongly going on ShiaoPi. If those two were of the same mafia faction, using bussing as a strategy is pointless since we have two mafia factions. All that's gonna happen is one being lynched tonight and the other the next night. Because of this, I'm going to assume they are not associated. Between FirmTofu and ShiaoPi, I like FirmTofu a lot more. Now that he's under a lot of pressure, instead of spending all his efforts explaining himself, he's trying to find better scum targets. He posted some good reads on ShiaoPi and myself. If FirmTofu goes after some of the really good players here, that would really show me he's town, because mafia would probably try to redirect the lynch onto the easiest targets. So I think there's still a good chance FirmTofu will flip scum, but overall, his last few pages still gave me better confidence. ##Unvote My strongest townread right now are on Koshi and austin. I think Koshi may be town because of the way he's playing. If he were mafia, after almost getting lynched the first day, the natural response would be to compensate by looking overly town. Looking through his filter, he's actually playing similarly to D1. I don't see any longposts, or tunneling, or strong reads on people. It's as if he doesn't need to prove that he's town. This reads pretty town to me. I think austin is town just because he's being very active right now without any obligation. Whoever the other replacement is still hasn't really been active yet, and there are a couple lurkers, so if he posts very little, he still wouldn't risk being lynched or shot. Additionally, he seems very caught up in the thread. If I were mafia, I would probably skim through pages at most, and tell people that I'm catching up, just so nobody expects me to do much. I think another person that looks kinda scummy to me is VayneAuthority. His last few posts were just complaining about lurkers and lack of contribution, and also a couple images. I think that if a town wanted more activity and information, he would start being more active himself, and pressure people to give information. Merely complaining about people lurking, or the general lack of activity in this thread doesn't actually make things better, plus, it also demoralizes townies. It really sets an alarm off for me when he says that he's "fine just chillin' until we lose". I think he's saying these things because he's mafia, and he's trying to give us an excuse to let him be passive. ##Vote VayneAuthority | ||
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On October 01 2013 14:13 VayneAuthority wrote: so who was the other person you thought was scum? You start off your paragraph with "I think another person" with there is no previous scumread that you gave. Was referring to FirmTofu and ShiaoPi. I didn't give any scumreads on them, but they're widely considered to be the most scummy right now. So I was basically saying "Besides the people who are already on our radar..." | ||
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Chairman Ray
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2. It's not just caring or not caring about the game that points me to believe you are mafia. I think everyone in this game should care about the game, otherwise why would they join it in the first place? You seemed to care on the first day, so why don't you care now? What made the difference to me wasn't whether you cared or not, but rather that you were vocal about it. This seems very mafialike to me. If Koshi were to come out and say that he doesn't care much anymore, and he's just going to chill the rest of the game, I would question him as well. 3. The reason I think austin is town is because he was a replacement. You aren't. You showed us you are here, and you are active. Austin had every excuse to continue to lurk. That's why I think he's town. I would definitely like to hear more if you have something in mind. | ||
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A few other things. Why did you say you could do more, but withhold all your other information? Do you not want to give me more reasons to trust you? Personally, I think that's a part of the ploy. Think of it as one gunner telling the enemy that he has plenty more bullets, so he should back down, but his holster is actually empty. Any and all information is quite useful to the town right now. If you have more information that paints you as town, I would love to hear it so I could trust you and go after people that are more likely to be mafia. Why was your first reply about who else I thought was mafia? Personally if someone had a scumread on me, the last thing I would worry about is whatever other people they have a read on. Seems like mismatched priorities to me. I think you were trying to get another person into the picture, or to see if I slip, so you can attack that and divert the attention off of you. So basically, I think your conversation with me thus far has been heavily masked and constructed, and that's because you are mafia. | ||
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 .Anyways, my personal opinion, I think it's best to go after people that have a possibility to be on a scumteam with SnB. If we can get rid of one scumteam, then the KP goes down. Reading through the filters, I think the strongest disconnect with SnB is probably Palmer. For this reason, even though Palmer might be a good lynch candidate, I wouldn't vote him myself just because I want to get rid of SnB's scumteam first. After a quick analysis, I don't think that there's much of a chance that VA and FT are on the same scumteam, and Palmer and FT are on the same scumteam either. There's a weak disconnect between VA and palmer, but that can go either way. So using the four people - VA, SnB, FT, and Palm, I will try to see if I can map out their alliance. Scenario A Scumteam: SnB, VA FT and Palmer cannot occupy third spot, and they are also disconnected, so one must be other scumteam, one must be town Scenario B Scumteam: SnB, FT VA and Palmer cannot occupy third spot. They can both be other scumteam, or one of the is scum, one is town. Among the three people VA, FT, and Palmer, here's the information that we will get from lynching them: VA - If he flips scum with SnB, then either FT or Palmer must be town. If he flips opposite scum, then FT is likely scum, or else both FT and Palmer are town. If he flips town, then FT and Palmer can be scum on opposite teams, or one is scum, one is town. FT - If he flips scum with SnB, then out of VA and palmer, one or both is on the other scumteam. If he flips other scumteam, then, Palmer is town, and VA is can either be town or scum with SnB, more likely scum with SnB. If he flips town, then we don't know much about Palmer and VA. Palmer - I don't want to lynch him, but if he flips other scumteam, then it doesn't say much about VA and FT, and if he flips town, it doesn't say much either. There's also solstice, which some people are pushing to vote. I think the only disconnect that can even be drawn with him is with Palmer, but it's not a very strong one. I also doubt he's gonna be lynched today, so there isn't much of a point trying to piece him in. I will do that tomorrow. Right now, I think I'm gonna put my vote on FT since there isn't that big a benefit lynching VA over him, and plus, I wanna save Palmer. ##Vote: FirmTofu | ||
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On October 04 2013 12:36 Pandain wrote: Ray you're relying on associative tells too much when scum busses each other all the time. Hell I could be busing Vayne and "Know" that he won't get lynched because people are set on FT/Palmar, and that's something I would reasonably do. I haven't played a multi-scum game before, but just thinking about it, I think that scum may try to poke at each other, or throw votes on each other, but they won't strongly bus each other. The reason is because if one of them flips scum, there still isn't a lot of safety for the other player. | ||
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However there is still the possibility that VA is town though, and everything we've seen so far is exactly how he plays. But even in this scenario, we should still lynch VA. The reason is because we should not allow town to intentionally play very scummy and very unproductive. What if VA gets scum in a future game? What if nobody lynches him just because they can't read him? What is he going to contribute to town? We probably shouldn't let his playstyle be allowed to foster, so I'm gonna put my vote on him instead of FT. ##unvote ##Vote: VayneAuthority | ||
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Anyways, I'm gonna be catching up through the last 200+ posts that I missed, and post some reads. | ||
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Out of the surviving players, we still have: Koshi VisceraEyes Mr. Cheesecake Oatsmaster raynpelikoneet Chairman Ray WaveofShadow VayneAuthority austinmcc Pandain s0lstice With Koshi, rayn, VE, and Oats confirmed town, that leaves myself, CC, WoS, austin, Pandain, and solstice to be in the other mafia. I know I'm town, and I think that WoS and austin are town, so that leaves CC, Pandain and solstice. Anyways, I think that solstice strikes to be the most scum to me out of the bunch. His filter is mostly him questioning other people for reads and just saying certain people are a bit scummy or suspicious. He hasn't done any in depth reads or pushed strongly on anyone. This is something I find particularly scummy just because it makes you look town without helping town a whole lot. He was onto me at some point, but defended me at the end. I appreciate it, but I still can't take it as a bribe, because it's still fits within mafia agenda. I think that the best strategy for the second scum team to do right now is get a lot of town influence so they can have a mislynch the next day. Today we're obviously just lynching the last banger. Tomorrow we'll be looking for the second scumteam. With thee votepower on their side, it's really easy to get a mislynch. Solstice seems to be slowly pushing onto CC and austin, and I want to bring this up now before it happens in case one or both are town. If CC is town, then maybe I'm wrong on my WoS or austin read and one of them is actually mafia. It definitely makes sense for mafia to defend me and push for stronger targets, because tbh I don't think I'm a threat to mafia, but both CC and austin are, and a mislynch on them could be gamechanging. I think I'm going to be dissolving my trust on anyone except for the confirmed townies because the dominant strategy right now for mafia is to just gain influence. If a single townie is influences, then we might lose this. I don't wanna be that towny that votes wrong. So my recommendation is to lynch VA today, and then solstice tomorrow. ##Vote: VayneAuthority | ||
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Chairman Ray
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On October 06 2013 07:14 austinmcc wrote: Chairman, why am I town? Do you think my attacks on you are legitimate? You think I'm town despite some of the folks thinking I'm mafia? What do you make of the above post? The cheesecake post. I think you are town because of the way you entered the game. A town can have the mindset to finding one particular scum and getting that scum lynched, taking it one day at a time, or a town can have the mindset of looking at the entire game in general and trying to decipher where everyone stands. A mafia can have the mindset of trying to push scum status onto one town and getting him mislynched, or a mafia can have the mindset to trying to make a fellow mafia look town, or even both. I think your playstyle fits best with the town that's looking at the entire game. You bring up a lot of reads onto people who are not currently under attack and a lot of it is pretty legitimate, even on me. This tells me that you are probably town. Just to address some of the criticisms on my activity, when I signed up for this mafia I thought I would have a lot more time, but then some irl commitments came up, and I'm trying to squeeze in sessions. I don't like to casually post a lot of one liners because whenever I come check the mafia thread, and there's like 8 new pages, I get a headache. I think it's best for town if they are not fishing in a sea of red herrings. As for the CC post, it gives me some reads on both CC and Oats. I think that even though Oats super defended Palmer, Palmer's team showed they are capable of anything since his show with SnB was really convincing that they were not both scum together. Looking for possible alliances isn't that effective against the Bangers. So I disagree with CC on that one. CC posting that however doesn't really indicate his alignment to me since that's a legitimate thing for both scum and town to do. Right now I'm giving him a slight town read just because I think solstice is mafia. Question, have we absolutely determined if Oats is town based on the cop shot? If not, I might take a look at him. | ||
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##vote: solstice Looks pretty clear who our lynch should be. | ||
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I would prefer to lynch the solo banger over the other team, but I think a confirmed scum is probably better than risking it. | ||
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On October 06 2013 11:35 s0Lstice wrote: let's start here. I did claim scum to CC, but I am not scum, I am the other cop we'll get to Koshi in a lil bit If you were the other cop, you should have claimed it ages ago when Koshi first came out. | ||
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Chairman Ray
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It is clear through solstice's filter, and if he was scum, then this was all planned out very well. He gave a legitimate excuse for everything, even when he's on the spot and not given a lot of time to respond. This tells me that everything was preconstructed and thought over. Other alternative would be that he's genuinely the cop, but I wouldn't say that. There could be two scenarios in this, solstice is the last banger, or solstice is the a part of the three man team. If solstice is the last banger, then he intent may be to coordinate some sort of attack with the other scumteam. The only one I can think of would be to roleblock Koshi and then KP him. That would avoid Koshi's actions stopping or redirecting the kill. But what doesn't make sense is why that would be a better alternative than to use driveby and do it yourself the next night? Maybe he was just being very cautious and didn't want the worst case scenario where Koshi gets double weeded and double KPed by both teams. I think overall it is very unlikely that solstice is the last banger. If solstice is a part of the three man team, then this was all planned out. We must see some sort of strategy that's being coordinated between 3 people. There are three ways that the scumteam can benefit from this. The first strategy is to bus solstice for it so they look town, so when solstice flips, the obvious targets would be those who tried to defend him. Many of us fit this right now. The second strategy is to actually try and get a mislynch on Koshi. If this were the case, one of the mafia would be someone who's asking the right questions to solstice in order to get the information out there that solstice may likely be town. I think WoS and austincc are most guilty of this right now. The last strategy is to prevent solstice from being lynched today by saying that it is a bad idea to lynch either solstice or koshi, and try to push for a mislynch. Austin fits this strategy. I would say that overall, it is quite likely that austin may actually be in a scumteam with solstice, even though my reads on him thus far have been town. I would also like to bring up another scenario that hasn't been considered yet, and I think may be likely. I think that it could be the case that both solstice and cc are in the same mafia team and this is all a ploy. After the last banger and Koshi dies, the only thing the scumteam has to do to win is to get one person trusted, so that it will eventually be down to one mafia one town, and then mafia wins. Doing this kinda plan after Koshi and the last banger dies would be too suspicious, so they are doing it now, because Koshi and the last banger will die fairly soon. It's the perfect timing. So this ploy is basically to get CC confirmed as town. Then there's the question of who the last mafia member is. As I already stated, I think this was all preplanned and thought over. So if all mafia is trying to do is to make CC look town, they don't actually need an elaborate plan. Solstice can just flop and ragequit and it would accomplish the same thing. So who's taking advantage of the fact that Solstice is explaining everything very well? I think that person is austincc. He's asking the right questions to make solstice flesh out the plan, and then he's also pushing that we don't lynch solstice this turn and try to push the lynch onto another person. This tells me that the most likely three would be solstice/cc/ausintcc. Either way, we have to lynch solstice today, since if he turns out to be the last banger, or even the cop, it would give us all the information we need to know exactly who to lynch the next day. | ||
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On October 07 2013 05:06 WaveofShadow wrote: Jesus. Why don't you post more often again? I did some casual posting when the fakeclaim first started happening, but then it occurred to me that there's a good chance the other scum is a part of the discussion. The best read I could give is if I don't pollute the discussion. | ||
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On October 08 2013 10:43 austinmcc wrote: Okay. Amend that statement to "the reasons why I think WoS could be scum," and, afaik, "the reasons why VE thinks WoS could be scum." Like, I don't mind that his CR read changed somewhat. It now matches mine, which I don't find scummy, and I would HOPE that people are slowly realizing CR has just not contributed for more than a WEEK of play. The no time/busy excuse doesn't hold up for that period of time, and his lack of motivation/care/whatever contrasts heavily with his play in his other two games. I don't mind that he says you/VA. I'm not sure if he's putting you together, or options (pick one from each set of /s), or what. There have been boatloads of lazy scumteams crafted by people in this game, he's not the first. His post about me being scummy, but not for "this" makes sense in whatever context he wrote it. Someone called me scummy for something, and WoS dropped that. I don't think there's much to go on with him being scum, apart from Palmar. We may disagree there. But even if there's SOME scummy stuff in his filter, we're now moving to D5. We're gonna have scummy stuff in filters. And whatever there may be that makes him look scummy, I don't think it looks scummier than CC/VA. I haven't posted much recently, but I have actually been following the thread very closely today and yesterday. I will definitely being around tomorrow as well. I have been shying away from casual posting since everyone else has been doing a good job of it and I'm really not sure how to contribute in that regard. I have a lot of new reads, and I divided it into different scenarios of who dies tonight. Hopefully it will may be of some help if I am killed tonight. I have it typed up and it's pretty lengthy, and I will be posting it right before the night ends. Right now I have a lot of time so I can actively participate more if you like. | ||
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On October 07 2013 05:04 Chairman Ray wrote: I have read through all the copclaim stuff a few times now and I think I have a good read on what has happened. It is clear through solstice's filter, and if he was scum, then this was all planned out very well. He gave a legitimate excuse for everything, even when he's on the spot and not given a lot of time to respond. This tells me that everything was preconstructed and thought over. Other alternative would be that he's genuinely the cop, but I wouldn't say that. There could be two scenarios in this, solstice is the last banger, or solstice is the a part of the three man team. If solstice is the last banger, then he intent may be to coordinate some sort of attack with the other scumteam. The only one I can think of would be to roleblock Koshi and then KP him. That would avoid Koshi's actions stopping or redirecting the kill. But what doesn't make sense is why that would be a better alternative than to use driveby and do it yourself the next night? Maybe he was just being very cautious and didn't want the worst case scenario where Koshi gets double weeded and double KPed by both teams. I think overall it is very unlikely that solstice is the last banger. If solstice is a part of the three man team, then this was all planned out. We must see some sort of strategy that's being coordinated between 3 people. There are three ways that the scumteam can benefit from this. The first strategy is to bus solstice for it so they look town, so when solstice flips, the obvious targets would be those who tried to defend him. Many of us fit this right now. The second strategy is to actually try and get a mislynch on Koshi. If this were the case, one of the mafia would be someone who's asking the right questions to solstice in order to get the information out there that solstice may likely be town. I think WoS and austincc are most guilty of this right now. The last strategy is to prevent solstice from being lynched today by saying that it is a bad idea to lynch either solstice or koshi, and try to push for a mislynch. Austin fits this strategy. I would say that overall, it is quite likely that austin may actually be in a scumteam with solstice, even though my reads on him thus far have been town. I would also like to bring up another scenario that hasn't been considered yet, and I think may be likely. I think that it could be the case that both solstice and cc are in the same mafia team and this is all a ploy. After the last banger and Koshi dies, the only thing the scumteam has to do to win is to get one person trusted, so that it will eventually be down to one mafia one town, and then mafia wins. Doing this kinda plan after Koshi and the last banger dies would be too suspicious, so they are doing it now, because Koshi and the last banger will die fairly soon. It's the perfect timing. So this ploy is basically to get CC confirmed as town. Then there's the question of who the last mafia member is. As I already stated, I think this was all preplanned and thought over. So if all mafia is trying to do is to make CC look town, they don't actually need an elaborate plan. Solstice can just flop and ragequit and it would accomplish the same thing. So who's taking advantage of the fact that Solstice is explaining everything very well? I think that person is austincc. He's asking the right questions to make solstice flesh out the plan, and then he's also pushing that we don't lynch solstice this turn and try to push the lynch onto another person. This tells me that the most likely three would be solstice/cc/ausintcc. Either way, we have to lynch solstice today, since if he turns out to be the last banger, or even the cop, it would give us all the information we need to know exactly who to lynch the next day. Just a recap from my last read, I think that the whole solstice fake-cop claim was planned out, and it is a fair assumption that both other scum teammates are a part of the plan. There are two outcomes to the plan - solstice gets lynched, or someone random gets lynched. There's also the outcome that Koshi gets lynched, but at that point mafia has such a huge advantage, so no point analyzing that scenario. I think the motivation behind the whole fake cop-claim was that the scumteam believed there was a good chance that solstice would be lynched by the end of the day. This plan would enable a better chance of solstice's survival, or it would make austinmcc and CC look more town. They had to pull it off at the beginning of the day because if solstice gets voted heavily on and then they try to pull it off, then it may look suspicious. Firstly, the scenario where solstice does not get lynched, and the lynch gets pushed onto someone else. We have to go back and look at who has been pushing to lynch outside solstice/koshi, and who has been agreeing with it. Outside people who have already been confirmed as town, only austinmcc fits that bill. He was pushing pretty hard that the best case is for neither koshi nor solstice to be lynched. He posted a lot of math explaining why that's the best option, which ended up in this conclusion: On October 07 2013 04:50 austinmcc wrote: If we lynch NEITHER cop claimer today, the math is actually better for us tonight. Again, scum is either dealing with having to protect solstice OR dealing with an extra protect FROM solstice onto town If austinmcc were scum with solstice, I would totally expect that the math would be correct, otherwise why would they go for it in the first place? That makes sense if they were both scum. But what if austinmcc was town? Would he support lynching outside of solstice? Personally, after I read the entire argument of why solstice is cop, it was still fairly obvious to me that solstice is the mafia, and I think it was fairly obvious to everyone else as well. But what happens if we leave them both alive? That would mean Koshi would probably die. Koshi's choices are to block KP, shoot solstice, bus solstice, or bus a random. Scum can shoot Koshi, shoot someone else, or shoot solstice in anticipation of a bus. For Koshi, blocking KP would only stall one turn in favor of scum, so that shouldn't be an option. Shooting solstice would leave him vulnerable to the bangers. Bussing with solstice leaves him vulnerable to the scum shooting solstice. Bussing with a random person would be countered by the scum shooting someone at random. Koshi will probably have to bus himself no matter what. No matter what option Koshi does, it will either be a coinflip or it will be bad for town. In all scenarios, either Koshi dies, or a few town die. Just to sum that up, here's what I think the scum plan was: 1. Push for lynching someone other than Koshi and solstice 2. Since austinmcc is directing the vote, it will probably end up being a town, so 1 town lynched 3. During nighttime, either shoot solstice to gamble on a bus, or take the safe option and shoot VE, rayn, or oats. The other scumteam will probably shoot someone else. Since there may have been a driveby, someone else could die as well. As a result, that's up to 4 town dead at this point (one from lynch, and then 3 KP). Personally, if I was scum, I would take the safe option and shoot someone else. With VE's vest blown, and Koshi outed as cop, there's no reason for anyone else to use vest. Perfect night for a slaughter. 4. At this point, there is a very high chance that scum will win Okay, onto the second scenario where solstice does get lynched, which is what happened. Soltice gets lynched, CC looks good from it because he outed a scum. Austin's alignment is still neutral, despite opposing the solstice lynch. Now let's look a bit more into CC and see why he's on the same scumteam as solstice. After he outed solstice, all his posts were very dismissive. A lot of other people were actively engaging information, but most of CC's posts were like this: On October 06 2013 11:40 Mr. Cheesecake wrote: I didn't bait because fuck that. Yolo kill this scum bastard. DID HE JUST CLAIM COP LEL On October 06 2013 11:43 Mr. Cheesecake wrote: You take your votes, and put them on s0lstice. On October 06 2013 13:29 Mr. Cheesecake wrote: Guys, I'd like to claim cop. S0lstice is mafia fakeclaiming and Koshi is town fakeclaiming it looks like. I'm cop seriously. If you read through his filter, it's like he's clearly certain that solstice is the mafia and he's unwilling to obtain more information to change his mind. It was actually other people directing the discussion on solstice. Let's look at things from CC's position for a second. If CC is actually town, the first thing I would do is to wait around to get more information. Solstice said to standby. The information coming up would be about what night actions they are going to do, and maybe it would reveal what scumteam that solstice is on. There are plenty of ways that waiting for more information can be more helpful to town. But CC outed solstice right away. This doesn't make sense from a strategic perspective. Let's also look at how he responded. If I was CC, I would totally be excited about the whole thing and lead the interrogation on solstice. However we see the opposite. CC was basically just standing on the sidelines pitching in heckles. That doesn't make sense to me if CC was town. Now let's look at it if CC was mafia. That could totally work, because the naturally behavior for CC would be to be purely dismissive of solstice, and limit involvement. That would be the most obvious way to try to distance yourself from solstice the most, and prevent the worst case scenario where you make yourself seem to friendly with solstice. So my behavioral analysis is that CC is on the same scumteam as solstice. My last read is on VA. I had thought all along that he's scum, but not sure on which scumteam. Tbh, back when I posted the few reads I had on VA, they might have been good indications on why VA is more likely scum than anyone else, but right now, 'more likely' is not good enough. But I can't really pull off my tunnel onto VA simply because his defense was that anyone who believes me is an idiot. It would be the incorrect play for me to let him come away as town with that kind of defense. Reading through his filter, he is still very scummy, and with the current information we have now, I don't feel comfortable lynching him yet, but I would definitely like to focus more on him after we see who dies during the night phase. | ||
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Chairman Ray
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On October 08 2013 12:28 WaveofShadow wrote: One hour later? Considering people asked you just to post whatever you had just to see IF there was anything? This is getting unacceptable. Sorry I should have stated that I'm not at home right now, so I just retyped what I could remember from memory. | ||
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On October 08 2013 12:42 Pandain wrote: Also why am I ignored in these posts? Because there are only room for 3 scum. Tbh I don't think you are the most likely scum. Anyways, I'll be here for a few more minutes answering whatever questions, then I'm gonna be heading home. | ||
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I am actually the last banger. SnB and palmer have given me permission to give up ages ago. I lost some motivation after they died since there was basically no way for us to win at that point. It was clearly either a town victory or the other scumteam's victory. I'll just vest it up every night and see how long I survive. Sorry for not being all that active.  Definitely won't be joining another mafia game until I have more free time. | ||
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Firstly, I would just like to tell you guys that I'm actually town, and the whole scum-claim thing was just a ploy. I am not a part of the remaining scumteam trying to claim the other scumteam. I am town. The reason why I did it was because at the time, WoS, austinmcc, Paindain, and VA were all onto me. Since everyone else besides CC is confirmed town, there 2 or 3 of you that are actually scum. This means that there's no point for me to convince you guys that I'm town when your objective is to get a mislynch on me. Due to my drastically lower skill level at mafia, there's a good chance that you will succeed in this, so I had to think of a crafty maneuver to avoid this, so this is it. By claiming banger and saying that I'm just gonna be vesting, it avoids the scenario where I get shot by cop. The last banger will think that I'm on the other scumteam fakeclaiming. The other scumteam may think I'm actually the last banger, and may alter their play. I'm the only one that knows I'm actually town. Due to this I can sit back and lurk and watch the thread to see if anyone gives an indication of scum. The other scumteam will try to play as if I am the last banger. The last banger will play as if I am in the other scumteam. Town will play as if I am the last banger. Nobody actually knows that I'm town, so this gives me a good reading advantage. For example, a member of the other scumteam may try to say that there's no point lynching me because I'm just going to be vesting. They benefit from having the extra KP so they may try to do this. To anyone who's town, it would be very obvious to lynch me simply because who the hell would believe what a scum says? If you are town and you are reading this, think about it. When you saw that I claimed to be the last banger, did you consider keeping my alive as a viable strategy? Probably not, because I sure wouldn't. Guess what happened: On October 08 2013 14:47 VayneAuthority wrote: what KP are we lowering exactly? he said he's just going to vest every night. If koshi kills scum tonight I will be gunning for the last scum on the other team, not CR. Add that to my list of Vayne suspicions. The reason I am outing this now is because the best case scenario happened - the last banger got killed. That was a good job from Koshi. Now before I continue posting my reads, I need to prove to you guys that I'm town, or else I'm gonna get mislynched and my reads are just going to be ignored. If I am on the other scumteam, it wouldn't make any sense for me to do this sort of play. I would not crumble under the pressure. Look at my other two games. I was under flak from everyone and I kept fighting. I wouldn't flop under this little pressure. Especially since I still have another player who's alive on my team, and the last banger is alive as well. There's a good chance to win, and I still have a partner to support me. If I am on the other scumteam, all I'm doing is throwing town a free kill. I would also be putting the last banger at risk. The last thing I want is for the last banger to die, because that lowers our chances to win more than myself dying. The least I would do is to at least try to fight it out. I wasn't a total scumread at the time, so it was really premature to give up. The other thing that wouldn't make sense is why I decided to give up before night ends and not after. The optimal play for the other scumteam would be to have me give up after night ends so that cop doesn't have a better read. Additionally, if I was scum, I would still have a partner left. Which one of you would let me do something like this? Anyways, I could probably muster up a lot more reasons why I am town, but if you guys have any more doubts, feel free to ask away. Now onto my reads. Today we just need to lynch one of the two remaining scum. My biggest read is currently still on VayneAuthority. I will continue where I left off from my previous reads. This is the last thing he said to me: On October 08 2013 12:44 VayneAuthority wrote: I dont really equate this to "everyone that believes you is an idiot" I pointed out plenty of contradictions in your thinking ray. His original reply to my reads was here: On October 01 2013 14:26 VayneAuthority wrote: alright now I get to tear you to shreds. Let me show you why you're making a grave error here. 1. You say FT looks town because he is going after "good players that aren't considered to be scummy by the majority." I have been doing the same thing by going after grackaroni, palmar, and pandain yet I am somehow scum to you. Contradiction #1 2. You are complaining about my personality and my playstyle, not mentioning things that make me scummy. If it was as simple as people that care are town and people that don't care are scum nobody would play mafia since it would be pointlessly easy. Koshi is a townread because he isn't even trying to look town yet I get flak for simply bullshitting with other players that are also bullshitting? Contradiction #2 3. I'm being active without any obligation. I could easily just lurk like half of this game right now but I'm not. Seems to make austin a town read but not me...Hm. Contradiction #3 I could do more but I think that is sufficient. If you need help from your scum team on not making easy posts to debunk then ask them in the QT. if you are town then stop bothering me. I already responded to it here: On October 01 2013 14:42 Chairman Ray wrote: 1. I said that if FT goes after the good players, he would look town, but he obviously isn't since he's going after ShiaoPi and myself. Sorry if my original post was confusing, I would edit it for clarity if I could. The reason is because has been the #1/#2 lynch candidate today and any effort to try to get a lynch on a strong, townish player would be wasted. This does not really apply to you right now. 2. It's not just caring or not caring about the game that points me to believe you are mafia. I think everyone in this game should care about the game, otherwise why would they join it in the first place? You seemed to care on the first day, so why don't you care now? What made the difference to me wasn't whether you cared or not, but rather that you were vocal about it. This seems very mafialike to me. If Koshi were to come out and say that he doesn't care much anymore, and he's just going to chill the rest of the game, I would question him as well. 3. The reason I think austin is town is because he was a replacement. You aren't. You showed us you are here, and you are active. Austin had every excuse to continue to lurk. That's why I think he's town. I would definitely like to hear more if you have something in mind. and here: On October 01 2013 15:08 Chairman Ray wrote: Another thing Vayne, I notice that you sound a bit defensive. I don't think I was being rude or condescending. All I did was post my read on you. That's sorta what we're supposed to do in a game of mafia, right? I don't understand why you need to "tear me to shreds", or say that my post is easy to debunk, or tell me to stop bothering you. Why would you want me to stop bothering you anyways? Is my trust not important? I think that you are not actually a big meanie. You are a very nice person who's sounding mean as a strategy. If I was in your position and I was town, I would probably want the trust of everybody, even lesser experienced players or players that post weaker reads. But if I was mafia, maybe I would construct a post to intimidate someone from giving any further reads on me. A few other things. Why did you say you could do more, but withhold all your other information? Do you not want to give me more reasons to trust you? Personally, I think that's a part of the ploy. Think of it as one gunner telling the enemy that he has plenty more bullets, so he should back down, but his holster is actually empty. Any and all information is quite useful to the town right now. If you have more information that paints you as town, I would love to hear it so I could trust you and go after people that are more likely to be mafia. Why was your first reply about who else I thought was mafia? Personally if someone had a scumread on me, the last thing I would worry about is whatever other people they have a read on. Seems like mismatched priorities to me. I think you were trying to get another person into the picture, or to see if I slip, so you can attack that and divert the attention off of you. So basically, I think your conversation with me thus far has been heavily masked and constructed, and that's because you are mafia. I still haven't gotten a reply for those two posts from VA yet. But just to add on, I notice that to defend himself from the first read, VA pointed out contradictions instead of why my reads are wrong. Pointing out contradictions are a way of discrediting someone, and doesn't actually attack their reads. This is a misdirection tactic. If It was town, then if someone had reads on me, I would try to give him any explanation that I am town. That's the most pro-town way to play. Now if I was mafia and someone had reads on me, I might start pointing out fallacies, contradictions or try to attack other things, because that's pseudo-defending myself without actually offering any tangible information. I mentioned a lot more examples of Vayne doing this in my quoted reads. The thing is that he's been doing a lot of this throughout the entire game. This is completely scum play. Also look at this: On October 09 2013 05:03 VayneAuthority wrote: ##unvote ##vote:Chairman ray he shot, he's lying Right here, Vayne believes that I shot somebody as the last banger instead of vesting up. Even though Pandain flipped banger, Vayne seemed to not have paid attention to it. Probably because in his mind he is absolutely certain I am the last banger, something that would only occur to scum. But that can go either way, so I have something even better. How did he know that I shot instead of vested? We already established that mafia had to up 3 KP. Only 2 town died. How did he know that a team had 2 KP and didn't shoot both of them? It's because one of the town flipped he doesn't recall shooting. I think this is a scumslip. | ||
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On October 09 2013 07:05 raynpelikoneet wrote: I do not even read what you wrote because if you fakeclaimed scum it's beyond stupid. You very well know what is wise and what is not as you have played in the clusterfuck Noire. I didn't really play Noire, I got lynched D1 and stopped following the thread. Sorry if fakeclaiming was a really bad idea. But the thing is that we got the last banger last night. Maybe if I didn't fakeclaim, I would have been shot, or someone else would have been shot. But this is the best thing that could happen. | ||
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On October 09 2013 07:11 raynpelikoneet wrote: Okay CharimanRay. Who is the last scum alive? CC. I'm reversing my read on austinmcc now. If he was scum, he would know that I'm not. He put so much effort into proving that he cannot be scum with me. It was looking like I was going to be the next lynch, so once I flip town, all his efforts would have gone to waste. His best move as scum would be to find other things to make him look town, because there's a 99% chance that I'm going to get lynched before he does. I have a lot more confidence in austinmcc now. I still think the whole solstice thing was planned out. VA obviously didn't play a big part of it or benefit much from it. So that means that the other person had to have either played a big role in the solstice interrogation trying to push the vote to someone else, or they had to have looked good as a result of it. CC shines here. | ||
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On October 09 2013 08:25 raynpelikoneet wrote: It does not work anymore because Pandain died. Scum are in a fucking bad spot. Especially how the discussion has gone at the start of tody. As soon as i saw Pandain being the last banger i knew Vayne is town. There is no other explanation. If you gun hard for other mafia team's people, they might kill you. You want to hold hands and stay silent and not disturb them because it helps you more (see Palmar for example) as you kill townies together, and when the time is right you win the game with one big blow. Since Vayne and Pandain are on different teams, Vayne would not have known 100% that Pandain was the scum. That is unless they somehow communicated. Looking at how the payphone thing went, it's pretty apparent that they didn't communicate, and their reads on who's mafia are quite unreliable. This makes it reasonable for Vayne to push onto Pandain. I am doing the exact same thing by pushing onto Vayne turn after turn. By using the same logic, if I think that he is the last banger and I am a part of the other scumteam, then I wouldn't try to push him. You can read all my pushes onto Vayne. Does it seem like I knew 100% that Pandain was the last mafia, so that I push onto Vayne, who I think is 100% town? | ||
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On October 09 2013 08:29 raynpelikoneet wrote: So you think it is more likely that Chariman Ray, the guy who plays his third game of mafia in teamliquid, decided the best action for the town in N4 is that he claims scum? Seriously? Like, what if Koshi shot him because scum? What? Good play right there? One of the reasons why I did it was because with 2-3 scum pushing onto me during the night, it was very possible that Koshi would have been convinced that I'm the scum instead of Pandain. I had to claim scum, and then say I'm just gonna vest it up, so that Koshi doesn't shoot me. It worked out in the end. | ||
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On October 09 2013 08:43 VisceraEyes wrote: Can you explain what you mean by the bolded? I might have to rethink that read actually, I posted too quickly. If my read that Vayne/CC are the two scum, then I can no longer claim that there was a payphone thing happening. What I meant when I posted that was that if Vayne/solstice/not-CC was the scumteam, then Vayne would not know that Pandain was scum. If they knew, they would have phoned Pandain and not CC. Basically, they shouldn't have much of an idea of who is the other scumteam. This would counter rayn's case for Vayne pushing onto Pandain indicating Vayne is town. | ||
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On October 09 2013 08:50 raynpelikoneet wrote: I may have fakeclaimed, but i do not claim fucking scum! If you claim scum it affects people's reads. Also nobody will ever trust you again in this game. That's all you get for claiming scum as town. There is no way anyone should ever claim scum as town "to not get shot" or "to get someone else shot". This is fucking bullshit. Sorry, I won't do it again. I realize now that you guys put a lot of thinking into cases where I'm mafia and I brought on a lot of inconvenience. | ||
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On October 09 2013 09:06 VisceraEyes wrote: Yeah in this light it seems ridiculous. If he were town planning to fake-claim, why not do so BEFORE posting the big ass post? Why not be like "Fuck okay this is too much you guys got me good job" and left it at that until today? Why go to the trouble of posting the reads, interact a bit, THEN go through with his fake-claim plan? ##Vote: ChairmanRay I fake claimed as a response to getting pressured by mafia so I could prevent myself from being shot by cop. I wouldn't need to if I didn't get the pressure. I had it planned to do it for a while now, but if I do it when there's no reason to, it just looks really stupid and I doubt anyone would fall for it. | ||
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On October 09 2013 10:02 WaveofShadow wrote: So here's a question. Why exactly would you not want to get shot by the cop? We had 10 people left. Mafia has up to 3KP. If 3 town dies, and I get shot by cop. That leaves 3-2-1. If town then gets lynched, town loses. If you lynch the one banger, then town loses at night since it goes down to 2-2-0 after the kill. If you lynch the other scum team, then it goes to 3-1-1, and after 2 KP, it goes to 1-1-1, and then town loses. I had to do something drastic to make sure that this doesn't happen. | ||
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GL finding last mafia. ^^ | ||
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On October 10 2013 03:14 WaveofShadow wrote: The proper way to do this is attach a picture of a baby seal. Bonus points if you draw it yourself in paint. Look at this everybody. This is a scum tactic. He's trying to keep me busy drawing baby seals. We have to lynch him now! | ||
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But that was a good game | ||
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