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On October 07 2013 04:16 austinmcc wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2013 04:15 VisceraEyes wrote:On October 07 2013 04:12 WaveofShadow wrote:On October 07 2013 04:12 VisceraEyes wrote:
Okay hold on hold on.
Would not a scum s0L have to have sacrificed KP to payphone Cheese? That doesn't make any sense at all does it? Think about it - that means that they're trading one of their members (if they're wrong about Cheese being scum) while at the same time losing out on KP, in exchange for what? If payphone is 0.5 then no. He could have had 1.5 KP. How? Both teams have 1KP, which doesn't round up. If he sac'd KP then he couldn't have shot. The N2 shots on hiro and snb gave 1-2 scum teams a bonus .5 KP. We don't know item costs, but it's possible that pay phone is a <=.5 KP item and that was what scumteam chose. Why a scumteam chooses the payphone over a roleblock if they're not going after koshi is......
Don't know scumprices.
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On October 07 2013 04:16 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2013 04:13 WaveofShadow wrote:On October 07 2013 04:13 raynpelikoneet wrote:On October 07 2013 04:08 WaveofShadow wrote:
Rayn can you explain to me why you didn't bother playing the game until your butt buddy Koshi came under fire? I have tried to lynch Palmar every single day in this game. If you guys do not listen to me, then i can't do anything about it. After the Palmar lynch where were you? What do you mean? Why should i be here on night phase? I put on vest and that's it. I live unless double stacked. I also told i think Pandain is scum and should be lynched next. Obviously that changed after the sol claim.
To fucking help us find scum.
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On October 07 2013 04:17 austinmcc wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2013 04:17 WaveofShadow wrote:On October 07 2013 04:16 austinmcc wrote:On October 07 2013 04:15 VisceraEyes wrote:On October 07 2013 04:12 WaveofShadow wrote:On October 07 2013 04:12 VisceraEyes wrote:
Okay hold on hold on.
Would not a scum s0L have to have sacrificed KP to payphone Cheese? That doesn't make any sense at all does it? Think about it - that means that they're trading one of their members (if they're wrong about Cheese being scum) while at the same time losing out on KP, in exchange for what? If payphone is 0.5 then no. He could have had 1.5 KP. How? Both teams have 1KP, which doesn't round up. If he sac'd KP then he couldn't have shot. The N2 shots on hiro and snb gave 1-2 scum teams a bonus .5 KP. We don't know item costs, but it's possible that pay phone is a <=.5 KP item and that was what scumteam chose. Why a scumteam chooses the payphone over a roleblock if they're not going after koshi is...... Don't know scumprices. Troof. BUT THAT DOESN'T MAKE THINGS BETTERRRRRRRRRRRRRRR
Was just answering VE's question with what I think is a likely scenario.
Austin.
Do you honestly think the 'right' play here is to lynch Koshi?
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On October 07 2013 04:26 Pandain wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2013 04:08 WaveofShadow wrote:
Rayn can you explain to me why you didn't bother playing the game until your butt buddy Koshi came under fire? I don't get your insinuation here. If you believe Koshi is town, that means Rayn is 100% town.
I do.
I'm just mad at Rayn for fucking off after he got confirmed.
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On October 07 2013 04:39 austinmcc wrote:Like...read this post: Show nested quote +On September 06 2013 06:00 Chairman Ray wrote:
I'm not afk, and here. Since there's pressure on me now, I'm going to have to reveal some of my intentions.
Not all of my posts thus far have been genuine to my feelings, but rather baits to get certain reactions. After thorough analysis, I have concluded that HolyFlare and Umasi are both town, and I am about 95% sure of it. I will post a very long analysis during the nighttime since there's only 1 hour left.
I didn't vote Lord Velocity because I wanted him lynched. I voted him to pressure him into giving information. When Umasi pressured him early on, he paniced a lot. I pressured him again in case he would give out something incriminating, but he didn't. The reason I kept my vote on him was a bait for mafia. Since there's many votes on myRZeft, I needed to but a little buffer on someone else just so that mafia still thinks they have a chance at saving him by triple voting on someone. They have not fallen for that and it's 1 hour remaining. MyRZeft himself is not even joining a bandwagon and just voting on his own. This leads me to believe that myRZeft is not mafia.
From all this information, I would urge you guys to not vote myRZeft. Also don't vote HolyFlare or Umasi, which I will explain later (I promise) And then look at the Koshi/Cheesecake/solstice situation. THIS IS EXACTLY THE KIND OF STUFF HE WAS TRYING TO PULL AS TOWN. I'M GOING TO DO X TO TRICK SCUM AND GET THEM TO REVEAL THEMSELVES. I know he's been told not to do it. I know he got lynched for it. But based on him DOING THIS PREVIOUSLY, RECENTLY, we know he LIKES this kind of stuff. I know I shouldn't be so paranoid, but it hits and I LIKE IT and I spam paranoid crap and I love it. Yum yum addictive. And then when ALL OF THIS COMES OUT TODAY, what does CR post? Show nested quote +On October 06 2013 11:03 Chairman Ray wrote:
Well, looks like an easy win for town lol. Do we think that solstice is the last banger or is he in the other mafia team? Show nested quote +On October 06 2013 11:14 Chairman Ray wrote:
##unvote
##vote: solstice
Looks pretty clear who our lynch should be. Show nested quote +On October 06 2013 11:21 Chairman Ray wrote:On October 06 2013 11:05 WaveofShadow wrote:On October 06 2013 11:03 Chairman Ray wrote:
Well, looks like an easy win for town lol. Do we think that solstice is the last banger or is he in the other mafia team? Does it matter? I would prefer to lynch the solo banger over the other team, but I think a confirmed scum is probably better than risking it. Show nested quote +On October 06 2013 11:34 Chairman Ray wrote:
Have we considered the scenario where CC is faking it and solstice is innocent? Show nested quote +On October 06 2013 11:38 Chairman Ray wrote:On October 06 2013 11:35 s0Lstice wrote:
let's start here. I did claim scum to CC, but I am not scum, I am the other cop
we'll get to Koshi in a lil bit If you were the other cop, you should have claimed it ages ago when Koshi first came out. He's not thinking about stuff. He's not INTERESTED in stuff. He goes "HAI HAS ANYONE CONSIDERED THIS OTHER SCENARIO?" And what does he do with that question? NOTHING. He doesn't seem to consider it. He doesn't post implications. He doesn't discuss with any other people the issues that we are all discussing, that he asked a question about and is supposedly interested in. CR is HOLY BALLS SO SCUMMY SO SCUMMY SO SCUMMY.
Yup now I agree.
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On October 07 2013 04:36 VisceraEyes wrote:
There's 1 guaranteed scum inside the cop claims and if we don't lynch scum today it's game over for town.
The right play in my opinion is lynching the one-man scumteam - deciding who we think that is, and lynching it with fire. In this way we remove 1 KP from the game and 1 player not aligned with town and even if scum hit two people tonight, we still have a chance tomorrow. If we hit town with the lynch the game is over.
If Koshi had come back and said the cop claim was a fakeclaim I probably would be agreeing to what Austin is suggesting, but VE absolutely has the right of it now.
One of Koshi or Solstice is guaranteed scum. You don't get better than a 50% shot.
I honestly don't even care if it turns out the scummer here is a member of the non-Bangers.
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On October 07 2013 04:44 VisceraEyes wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2013 04:43 WaveofShadow wrote:On October 07 2013 04:36 VisceraEyes wrote:
There's 1 guaranteed scum inside the cop claims and if we don't lynch scum today it's game over for town.
The right play in my opinion is lynching the one-man scumteam - deciding who we think that is, and lynching it with fire. In this way we remove 1 KP from the game and 1 player not aligned with town and even if scum hit two people tonight, we still have a chance tomorrow. If we hit town with the lynch the game is over. If Koshi had come back and said the cop claim was a fakeclaim I probably would be agreeing to what Austin is suggesting, but VE absolutely has the right of it now. One of Koshi or Solstice is guaranteed scum. You don't get better than a 50% shot. I honestly don't even care if it turns out the scummer here is a member of the non-Bangers. Then you're scum because if it hits anyone other than the Bangers town loses.
How so?
7-3-1 --->7-2-1
IF scum kill 3 of us:
4-2-1
How do we lose?
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On October 07 2013 04:50 austinmcc wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2013 04:48 VisceraEyes wrote:
Actually it doesn't now that I'm thinking about it. We're at
7-1-3 right now I think. If we lynch the scum in the cop claims it's either
7-0-3 or 7-1-2
Assuming worst case (7-1-2) then tonight we could be looking at 3KP if DriveBy was used...making
4-1-2
So the game isn't OVER, per se, but we're definitely in a bad situation assuming scum kill the real cop and 2 of the confirmed town (Me/rayn/Oats if Koshi is cop, Me/Wave if s0L is cop) If we lynch NEITHER cop claimer today, the math is actually better for us tonight. Again, scum is either dealing with having to protect solstice OR dealing with an extra protect FROM solstice onto town
The only way this is better for us is if scum removes some uncertainty by killing some townies the rest of town is unsure about. As is VE is likely dead since no vest and confirmed town by 'either' cop. They could probably kill Rayn too who people thought was town before being confirmed by Koshi.
I'm not so sure it does help us and I don't know if that's worth the risk honestly.
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On October 07 2013 04:52 VisceraEyes wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2013 04:50 Pandain wrote:
I have to go unfortunately but these were my reasons:
1. I had a town read on Koshi up until the s0lstice claim. I would have at least been suspicious of him, but he played exactly like a cop even denying that he's cop and then eventually acknowledging it.
2. He's been slowly confirming townies which is what a cop should do . Furthermore all his confirmations in VE, Rayn, and Oats(less on Oats) I have town reads on.
That logic makes sense if he's town. On the other side of the coin we have s0Lstice, who is letting a confirmed liar confirm people as town and letting town lynch based on these confirmations. In the name of some plan to claim scum, hoping that town believes him and doesn't lynch the shit out of him. This is not how I expect a cop to act. Ever.
This.
THIIIIIIS
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Austin.
The right play today is absolutely to lynch Solstice. No bones about it.
Again, the fact that basically everything you have said this game as been so antithetical to my thought processes this game is so fucking odd to me.
In which game were we both town together?
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SEE VE?
We agree on so much and have been thinking the same way on this.
Y u still gotta think I'm scum?
Alphonse.
Brother.
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On October 07 2013 04:58 VisceraEyes wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2013 04:57 WaveofShadow wrote:
SEE VE?
We agree on so much and have been thinking the same way on this.
Y u still gotta think I'm scum?
Alphonse.
Brother. You've been saying I'm going to lose all game. You've been saying my team isn't good enough to win ALL GAME LONG. You're going to have to excuse my defensiveness against this sentiment.
You cut me deep.
It's my team too, but you've had more faith than me from the start. Excuse me if the monstrosity that was last game shattered my dreams a little. You know for somebody who is so harsh with me about my attitude at the start of this game, remember that I didn't modkill myself out of rage.
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On October 07 2013 05:02 austinmcc wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2013 04:54 WaveofShadow wrote:
Austin.
The right play today is absolutely to lynch Solstice. No bones about it.
Again, the fact that basically everything you have said this game as been so antithetical to my thought processes this game is so fucking odd to me.
In which game were we both town together? I assume some. Nuclear. Possibly older games like ... Liquid City? GSL 2 or the GSL 3 game? Pokemon PTP? Rockband? Apart from nuclear I don't remember any specific.
Probably just Nuclear then.
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On October 07 2013 05:03 cakepie wrote:VOTE COUNT: s0Lstice (9) : Mr. Cheesecake, WaveofShadow, VayneAuthority, Chairman Ray, raynpelikoneet, Pandain, Koshi, Oatsmaster, VisceraEyesKoshi (1) : s0Lstice, Oatsmaster (X), austinmcc (X)Chairman Ray (0) : austinmcc (X), WaveofShadow (X)Mr. Cheesecake (0) : Oatsmaster (X)Pandain (0) : Koshi (X), VayneAuthority (X)VayneAuthority (0) : Chairman Ray (X)WaveofShadow (0) : Pandain (X)Not voting (1) : austinmcc + Show Spoiler [Details] +Lynch is in 24 hours. Voting is mandatory.
Currently s0lstice is set to be lynched!
If you see any votes out of place please inform me or someone else on the hosting team so that we can correct it.
Just looking at the votecount makes me feel really good.
I can't really think of a time Town lynched town when the voting was almost unanimous like this.
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On October 07 2013 05:04 austinmcc wrote:
Look at those scenarios. Tell me why town is better off lynching into the cops today than tomorrow.
Because you're assuming we hit scum outside of the cops.
Again, bad assumptions.
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On October 07 2013 05:04 Chairman Ray wrote:
I have read through all the copclaim stuff a few times now and I think I have a good read on what has happened.
It is clear through solstice's filter, and if he was scum, then this was all planned out very well. He gave a legitimate excuse for everything, even when he's on the spot and not given a lot of time to respond. This tells me that everything was preconstructed and thought over. Other alternative would be that he's genuinely the cop, but I wouldn't say that.
There could be two scenarios in this, solstice is the last banger, or solstice is the a part of the three man team.
If solstice is the last banger, then he intent may be to coordinate some sort of attack with the other scumteam. The only one I can think of would be to roleblock Koshi and then KP him. That would avoid Koshi's actions stopping or redirecting the kill. But what doesn't make sense is why that would be a better alternative than to use driveby and do it yourself the next night? Maybe he was just being very cautious and didn't want the worst case scenario where Koshi gets double weeded and double KPed by both teams. I think overall it is very unlikely that solstice is the last banger.
If solstice is a part of the three man team, then this was all planned out. We must see some sort of strategy that's being coordinated between 3 people. There are three ways that the scumteam can benefit from this. The first strategy is to bus solstice for it so they look town, so when solstice flips, the obvious targets would be those who tried to defend him. Many of us fit this right now. The second strategy is to actually try and get a mislynch on Koshi. If this were the case, one of the mafia would be someone who's asking the right questions to solstice in order to get the information out there that solstice may likely be town. I think WoS and austincc are most guilty of this right now. The last strategy is to prevent solstice from being lynched today by saying that it is a bad idea to lynch either solstice or koshi, and try to push for a mislynch. Austin fits this strategy. I would say that overall, it is quite likely that austin may actually be in a scumteam with solstice, even though my reads on him thus far have been town.
I would also like to bring up another scenario that hasn't been considered yet, and I think may be likely. I think that it could be the case that both solstice and cc are in the same mafia team and this is all a ploy. After the last banger and Koshi dies, the only thing the scumteam has to do to win is to get one person trusted, so that it will eventually be down to one mafia one town, and then mafia wins. Doing this kinda plan after Koshi and the last banger dies would be too suspicious, so they are doing it now, because Koshi and the last banger will die fairly soon. It's the perfect timing. So this ploy is basically to get CC confirmed as town. Then there's the question of who the last mafia member is. As I already stated, I think this was all preplanned and thought over. So if all mafia is trying to do is to make CC look town, they don't actually need an elaborate plan. Solstice can just flop and ragequit and it would accomplish the same thing. So who's taking advantage of the fact that Solstice is explaining everything very well? I think that person is austincc. He's asking the right questions to make solstice flesh out the plan, and then he's also pushing that we don't lynch solstice this turn and try to push the lynch onto another person. This tells me that the most likely three would be solstice/cc/ausintcc.
Either way, we have to lynch solstice today, since if he turns out to be the last banger, or even the cop, it would give us all the information we need to know exactly who to lynch the next day.
Jesus.
Why don't you post more often again?
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On October 07 2013 05:17 Koshi wrote:
Just leave the votes where they are. Really. I am cop. It should be obvious. If it isn't. You suck.
If this is how you're going to post honestly, then just shut up.
You're making a mockery of the rest of town who are actually attempting to put in effort to solve this game.
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On October 07 2013 05:18 austinmcc wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2013 05:14 VisceraEyes wrote:
If we lynch outside of the cops we're looking at
6-1-3 or 7-0-3 or 7-1-2
We can't even begin to speculate on the night actions because A) we don't know if s0lstice or Koshi is lying STILL, so we don't know what cop actions are available and B) We still don't know what scum KP is available. So we're still looking for 3 KP tomorrow morning which would leave us:
3-1-3 or 4-0-3 or 4-1-2
Regardless of who is killed, it's safe to say that Koshi and s0L will still be alive tomorrow imo. I don't like these odds. Right. They're alive tomorrow, almost certainly. But we can kill not-them scum today, get a night that's PRETTY SOLID FOR TOWN, like either cop has pro-town stuff and we don't risk lynching the wrong one, and a flip today and flips tomorrow MAY tell us more about the situation.
Once again, you're assuming we hit scum tonight outside of the cops, which is a LOWER CHANCE THAN 50%.
Especially if we can't assume anymore that the confirmed people are truly confirmed (aside from VE).
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On October 07 2013 05:21 austinmcc wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2013 05:20 WaveofShadow wrote:On October 07 2013 05:18 austinmcc wrote:On October 07 2013 05:14 VisceraEyes wrote:
If we lynch outside of the cops we're looking at
6-1-3 or 7-0-3 or 7-1-2
We can't even begin to speculate on the night actions because A) we don't know if s0lstice or Koshi is lying STILL, so we don't know what cop actions are available and B) We still don't know what scum KP is available. So we're still looking for 3 KP tomorrow morning which would leave us:
3-1-3 or 4-0-3 or 4-1-2
Regardless of who is killed, it's safe to say that Koshi and s0L will still be alive tomorrow imo. I don't like these odds. Right. They're alive tomorrow, almost certainly. But we can kill not-them scum today, get a night that's PRETTY SOLID FOR TOWN, like either cop has pro-town stuff and we don't risk lynching the wrong one, and a flip today and flips tomorrow MAY tell us more about the situation. Once again, you're assuming we hit scum tonight outside of the cops, which is a LOWER CHANCE THAN 50%. Especially if we can't assume anymore that the confirmed people are truly confirmed (aside from VE). It's not lower than 50. If it's lower than 50 we're all awful and don't deserve to win anyway. Don't give me that. If you don't have a > 50% scumread on D4 outside of those 2.....
Sorry Austin, it doesn't work that way.
Just because you're 'sure' someone is scum doesn't actually make them so until they flip.
My experience this game only proves that further. I don't care how right you've been or how right you feel you still are. You are not the entirety of the rest of town. The chances are lower than 50%.
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On October 07 2013 05:26 s0Lstice wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2013 05:22 VisceraEyes wrote:On October 07 2013 05:10 s0Lstice wrote:On October 07 2013 04:52 VisceraEyes wrote:On October 07 2013 04:50 Pandain wrote:
I have to go unfortunately but these were my reasons:
1. I had a town read on Koshi up until the s0lstice claim. I would have at least been suspicious of him, but he played exactly like a cop even denying that he's cop and then eventually acknowledging it.
2. He's been slowly confirming townies which is what a cop should do . Furthermore all his confirmations in VE, Rayn, and Oats(less on Oats) I have town reads on.
That logic makes sense if he's town. On the other side of the coin we have s0Lstice, who is letting a confirmed liar confirm people as town and letting town lynch based on these confirmations. In the name of some plan to claim scum, hoping that town believes him and doesn't lynch the shit out of him. This is not how I expect a cop to act. Ever. Our night actions do not break the rules by which you are judging me. On my side of the coin, you and WoS are confirmed, except we also killed a scum s&b. I've already explained the thought processes behind why I chose to act the way i did in regards to Koshi. He 'confirmed' you, and then Rayn and oats. I didn't know what I thought of rayn, but I certainly didn't like Oats. This contributed to the change in opinion. I knew that if he indeed was going to be a townie acting as a cop to protect me he'd have to be fabricating night actions. Put yourself in my shoes for a second. Oh s0L. Oh s0L. You have no idea. I've BEEN in your shoes. I've BEEN in crazy fucking claim situations like this before. Did I ever tell you about the time I was a detective and tried to convince town that one of my redchecks that flipped green was actually a DEATHMILLER? If you're town, I can assure you - no one understands the position you're in than me. But what you have to understand is that this all looks terribly suspect, and if you were actually the cop, this is something you would have HAD to factor in. The timing is suspicious, the circumstances are suspicious, EVERYTHING is suspicious about this. Surely you realize this. Of course I realize it! Yet here I am fighting you. How ridiculous this is is a non-factor from my point of view because I. AM. RIGHT. I realize I set myself up to make this nearly impossible to tell the truth and have it look believable, but I'm gonna be climbing that mountain right up until lynch time because I owe it to the town to not just get frustrated and let you lynch the wrong guy. Do not close your mind yet. Do not lay out a final decision. There is plenty of time.
And it's shit like this that makes me really REALLY mad at Koshi if he is town.
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EPT
