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strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
September 28 2013 17:41 GMT
#1198
On September 29 2013 02:29 raynpelikoneet wrote:
SnB can you be useful?

Phone posting is allw
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
September 28 2013 17:44 GMT
#1204
Also palmar is still scum. Basically it looks like he jumped on the random lynch wagon instead of pushing his scum read because it was easier and because he's been captain random lynvh in past town games. But the thing is, he has been captain random lunch because it gives valuable analysis, never just for the purpose of circumventing analysis I on say one. But here we have all the positions to analyze but instead of doing that or pushing his scum read he is down with random lunching. Put that with my earlier case and we should be voting pmar.

Did anyone ever actually disagree with or counter my case? Cause I will argue with them if so. We should be voting palmar ibaread of koshi.
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
September 28 2013 17:46 GMT
#1211
On September 29 2013 02:43 WaveofShadow wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 29 2013 02:40 strongandbig wrote:
Here's what I conclude:
1. Chairman Ray, ShiaoPi and Grack are likely scum. They all joined in the randomlynch on koshi but were all reluctant or afraid to own it. The entire point of a random lunch is that if you are doing it you lunch it's target regardless of analysis.
- ray's long post analyzing koshi but not mentioning the rng lynch just really strikes me as scummy. The point of a random lynch is to circumvent analysis on your first target, giving better odds of hitting scum, and make analysis easier on your second target because of how people reacted to the peoposed random lunch.
- grack is also super scummy from the way he shifted from "I'm pro random lunc" before it was targeted to "koshi is scum" after if was targeted without still defending random lynch. Unwilling to stick up for / defend his views when it comes down to it.
- shiaopi - little harder to analyze because he posted so little before his vote. However the whole concept of "I'm against rng lunch but pro koshi lynch" is not necessarily scummy I guess if you have a strong read on the player (strong enough that you want townies who don't agree with your scum read to vote him anyway because you're so sure you're right and they're wrong. I don't see any evidence in shiaopi's filter that his scum read is strong or even exists on koshi before he voted for him. So voting for him after/becaus he was random lynch targeted but saying you don't suppose the random lynch but having a randomly showing up scum read seems really scummy to me.

Not alignment indicative for CR. He's meganoob and as such doesn't understand that what he did looks scummy.

Can't say much regarding grack/Shiao 'cause shiao basically hasn't been around all game and I got burned on grack before so I'm not confident in my ability to read him. Mebbe I should look tho anyway.

Why does not understanding that something is scummy mean that doing it doesn't make you scum? That makes no sends.
Otoh I guess he has been mislynched twice so we should b careful about doing that again; but that can only go so far or we risk just leaving him alive and losing if he is actually scum this time.
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
September 29 2013 17:43 GMT
#1477
Ok I sti think palmar is scum, my case still stands. Fracks case contributes additional evidence to my argument that palmar is putting a lot of energy into "pattern finding" but doesn't ever use it to actually find scum. It seems like no one really disagrees, and palmar hasn't really been arguing with me directly.

That said, grack also has a pretty good chance of being scum. There's his reasoning around voting koshi, which really strikes me as trying to push the koshi lynch without being connected to the random lynch itself in case it goes belly up. If he's telling the truth about his koshi read, he's spent a lot more of the thread talking about why koshi is scum than Yamato. He has much more well developed read on koshi than on Yamato, and yet once Yamato is leading on votes he doesn't try to persuade people, he just pops over to Yamato with a lol. Like, his most recent post about yamato before voting him was
On September 28 2013 07:39 Grackaroni wrote:
Quit reaching. I was going to switch regardless because Yamato came back and started doing things.

"It's the torso" "only more so!"
strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
September 29 2013 17:45 GMT
#1478
On September 30 2013 02:34 Grackaroni wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 30 2013 02:31 Pandain wrote:
Hey grack you seem pretty active, give me a summary of where we are now?

We are in the night phase

Not really sure where we are at right now. I think the day 1 lynch was likely between 2 townies so it's hard to get much information from it. You can read what I think of Palmar; Mr. CC would also be an useful filter to analyze because I haven't gotten a good feel from him and he has not been discussed at all.

What hanged your mind on koshi? Your last post about him was basically "shit koshi is town"
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
September 29 2013 19:57 GMT
#1505
On September 30 2013 04:54 Blazinghand wrote:
ohh shii forgot about this game


1) FT still an okay lynch
2) rayn probably scum if i'm alive i'll be going after him
3) palm town

why is palmar town
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
September 30 2013 14:30 GMT
#1751
Okay first question. Grack why aren't you voting palmar. I thought you were with me on that. You talked a lot more about him than about the other people you're voting for.

Nothing has changed to persuade me that palmar isn't our best lynch. I don't agree with bh's townread on him - anyone can point things out, and I don't get the same "town feeling" from palmar's later posts that bh did.

Second point. Between shiaopi and firmtofu I would much rather lynch shiaopi.
1. My personal experience is that shiaopi has done much more in past games to show he can contribute as town. This makes his lack of contribution this game scummier than tofu's. people who host games tend to care more about mafia than people who don't, in general.
2. The way shiaopi joined the koshi lynch. Like I said a while ago, I find this actively scummy. No indication prior to the vote that koshi is a scum read. First one to join the randomly generated lynch train, but distances himself from the whole idea of the random lynch, then doesn't talk about it again.
Also this post:
On September 29 2013 04:46 ShiaoPi wrote:
I must admit I am fine with yamato getting lynched instead of koshi, so I am just sitting here playing dota

When was Yamato his scumread? Why? I see him "in favor of" a Yamato lynch but I see no reasons and no thought process - nothing that can distinguish it from just voting with town sentiment.


Tofu, on the other hand, I just see as a mega lurker. He voted koshi for te random lynch and owned up to that, which I find to be a townie action.
That said, he did say
On September 28 2013 03:38 FirmTofu wrote:
Anyone who supports RNG, myself included, should still scumhunt and make full use of the day. There is still much to say and much to find. Anyone who stops scumhunting should be subject to lynch as well.

And then not do it. But I find shiaopi much more likely to flip scum.
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
September 30 2013 14:50 GMT
#1756
On September 30 2013 23:38 WaveofShadow wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 30 2013 23:30 strongandbig wrote:
Okay first question. Grack why aren't you voting palmar. I thought you were with me on that. You talked a lot more about him than about the other people you're voting for.

Nothing has changed to persuade me that palmar isn't our best lynch. I don't agree with bh's townread on him - anyone can point things out, and I don't get the same "town feeling" from palmar's later posts that bh did.

Second point. Between shiaopi and firmtofu I would much rather lynch shiaopi.
1. My personal experience is that shiaopi has done much more in past games to show he can contribute as town. This makes his lack of contribution this game scummier than tofu's. people who host games tend to care more about mafia than people who don't, in general.
2. The way shiaopi joined the koshi lynch. Like I said a while ago, I find this actively scummy. No indication prior to the vote that koshi is a scum read. First one to join the randomly generated lynch train, but distances himself from the whole idea of the random lynch, then doesn't talk about it again.
Also this post:
On September 29 2013 04:46 ShiaoPi wrote:
I must admit I am fine with yamato getting lynched instead of koshi, so I am just sitting here playing dota

When was Yamato his scumread? Why? I see him "in favor of" a Yamato lynch but I see no reasons and no thought process - nothing that can distinguish it from just voting with town sentiment.


Tofu, on the other hand, I just see as a mega lurker. He voted koshi for te random lynch and owned up to that, which I find to be a townie action.
That said, he did say
On September 28 2013 03:38 FirmTofu wrote:
Anyone who supports RNG, myself included, should still scumhunt and make full use of the day. There is still much to say and much to find. Anyone who stops scumhunting should be subject to lynch as well.

And then not do it. But I find shiaopi much more likely to flip scum.

So you say you'd rather vote SP over FT---but your second reason essentially puts them equally scummy, and your first reason is useless.
Shiao is capable of playing any way he'd like.
In LXI he lurked and shitposted and was scum.
In I Swear This Is Normal, he was super mega protown, posted a lot and 'scumhunted,' and was scum.
I feel like I played another game with him as well where he was actually town as well but i forget.
in conclusion, your reasons for voting SP over FT are shit---SP could still be scum but you're not going to catch him on weak meta. Vote FT because it's a surer lynch.

1. Okay so he can play well as scum if he wants to. Do you have evidence that he can play like this as town? If not, you've said nothing that relates to my argument.
Plus, one example is not enough to convince me. I'm talking about what I generally expect as town out of shiaopi vs what I expect as town out of firmtofu.
2. How does my second reason put them equally scummy? Shiaopi pushed koshi's wagon after the rng selection while trying to avoid responsibility for the random lynch if koshi flipped town. Ft was honest and owned up to what he was doing. Those are in no way equivalent.
3. Shiaopi's Yamato switch was also scummy.
4. What reasoning could you possibly have for why firmtofu is a surer lynch than shiaopi? Please explain. They are both equally lurky but there are plenty of reasons why shiaopi's filter is worse.
5. Why so aggro bro?
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
September 30 2013 15:58 GMT
#1785
On September 30 2013 23:56 Palmar wrote:
SnB you said chairman ray was scum, do you still think he is?

I have no idea. I honestly am not sure how to deal with someone with a proven track record of looking really really scummy as town for reasons other than just being inactive (ie, he actually makes extremely scummy posts). I don't want to lynch him today, in the hopes that either the cops will take care of him one way or the other, or that he will post things which make his alignment clearer. We have plenty of better lynch options today. Like you or shiaopi.




tldr of the following: BH's case on FT applies more to shiaopi than to ft. palmar's case on ft is not very good cause it only points out bad/shitty/irrational play, not why it's alignment indicative. wos's case is actually decent though and makes me feel willing to kill ft. but i still think shiaopi is more likely scum.


On October 01 2013 00:23 Palmar wrote:
For those that are not paying attention, this is the reason you should be lynching FT

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=19852553

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=19850842



everything in bh's post applies more to shiao than to tofu.
On September 27 2013 15:35 FirmTofu wrote:
Okay, so my best scum read right now is ShiaoPi. He's been around, but hasn't contributed. His filter is all one liners with basically no substance. Now, I know ShiaoPi is a lot better than how he's playing right now. I want to know why he is playing below is full potential.
Filter: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=429897&user=ShiaoPi

On September 30 2013 16:42 FirmTofu wrote:
I'm sorry for my long absence. I'll try to make myself available in the coming days.

I want to talk about ShiaoPi again. Here are the facts.

1) ShiaoPi was pretty useless in the early game. He showed up for about an hour with a few one liners and promptly left the thread.

2) After I accused him, he immediately changed his posting style. You can see the transition in his filter.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=429897&user=ShiaoPi

3) His first "contributory post" was one that basically buddied BH's sentiment that I was somewhat scummy.

4) Then, he posts about Grack in a detached manner. Stating random facts that do more to appear useful instead of actually being useful.

5) The rest of his filter is just random accusations thrown at Koshi and more one liners.

The key takeaway here is that ShiaoPi is content to go back to shitposting as long as no one is accusing him directly. He doesn't care to scumhunt in this game. All of his posts have been defensive. His read on Koshi is unsubstantiated and useless. There is nothing in his filter that is redeeming in the slightest. Scum.

##vote: ShiaoPi

tofu has reasoning. it's not well fleshed out. It could very well be coming from scum. but at least it's a thought process.

On the other hand, before voting koshi shiaopi has said exactly this about him:
On September 27 2013 06:49 ShiaoPi wrote:
so koshi what changed in regards to grack.
afraid we cannot be bros if you keep this up

after he voted, he posted this:
On September 28 2013 02:57 ShiaoPi wrote:
koshi is not that rapid fire style townie I would expect from him. Also I really do not agree with the reasoning he offered when I asked him about the Grack read

which i consider equally or less descriptive than what ft posted about his shiaopi vote.

the palmar post you link essentially boils down to:
1. ft posted about grack, then didnt vote him, why
2. other people fit ft's reasons for voting shiao

these are decent points and ft could very well be scum, but i don't see the scum motivation for the things you call him out for. like, they could also be coming from a bad townie. i definitely don't think they make up for any of the reasons i already cited for killing shiaopi over ft.

actually, i think that if ft was trying to establish separation between himself and his scumbuddy grack (which I assume is the scenario you're proposing here, or else why would point 1 be scummy) he would have better reasoning about grack being scum. but as you say yourself, he has equally shitty reasoning for voting both of them.

like, both of these points only point to scum if there's a connection involved or if you can explain how they fit a scum agenda, and you don't explain that.

WoS's case is better.
On September 28 2013 04:10 WaveofShadow wrote:
You didn't shut everyone down in that game either. You yelled at people to vote for me but you did allow the conversation to go to other places at times.

I dunno I'm kinda disappointed I was expecting more.
Anyway FT read:

His entire 1-page filter reads like a scum manual.
Show nested quote +
On September 27 2013 15:18 FirmTofu wrote:
Ok, my first impressions are that Yamato, WoS, and VE look super town. Grack is probably scum. His posting is terrible.

I've never played a legit game with BH or Palmar, so I can't read them yet.

1) Give strong players townreads, throw out a couple others just to keep people honest, and be honest regarding unknowns, you don't want anyone on your ass you can't handle.

Show nested quote +
On September 27 2013 15:35 FirmTofu wrote:
Okay, so my best scum read right now is ShiaoPi. He's been around, but hasn't contributed. His filter is all one liners with basically no substance. Now, I know ShiaoPi is a lot better than how he's playing right now. I want to know why he is playing below is full potential.
Filter: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=429897&user=ShiaoPi


RNG debate.

Statistically, it is a great idea to randomly choose a day one lynch. There are 6 scum between us. 6/20= .3
I don't think the best scumhunters among us can lynch with greater accuracy on Day 1 than 30%. However, I also don't think there is any method by which we can decide a fair way to choose a random kill. We would need an unbiased party to use random.org or something. We don't have any confirmed town, so discussing this topic is pointless.

Lynching randomly is impractical and unfeasible. Stop wasting time discussing this pointless topic.

2) RNG is BAD. No town will ever go for this so make sure to shut it down to look as towny as possible. Just in case this game actually is different though (considering the statistics) make it look like you'll consider it to appease people.

Show nested quote +
On September 27 2013 15:38 FirmTofu wrote:
On September 27 2013 15:36 Grackaroni wrote:
On September 27 2013 15:18 FirmTofu wrote:
Ok, my first impressions are that Yamato, WoS, and VE look super town. Grack is probably scum. His posting is terrible.

I've never played a legit game with BH or Palmar, so I can't read them yet.

Thanks for the detailed explanations. Care to explain?

We've already discussed you quite enough. There are at least 5 other scummers out there. I'm interested in discussing as many people as possible. I'll discuss you if you end up being the #1 or #2 candidate later in the day.

3) Oh yeah, I gave this guy a scumread based on nothing huh? I'll delay this as long as I can and maybe people will forget.

Show nested quote +
On September 28 2013 03:30 FirmTofu wrote:
##vote: Koshi
I'm keeping my word here. BH's solution to the RNG problem is quite inventive. I will double check if it was truly random, but if it was I'm sticking with Koshi.

30% are pretty good odds.

BH, why aren't you voting Koshi?

Show nested quote +
On September 28 2013 03:38 FirmTofu wrote:
Anyone who supports RNG, myself included, should still scumhunt and make full use of the day. There is still much to say and much to find. Anyone who stops scumhunting should be subject to lynch as well.

Show nested quote +
On September 28 2013 03:43 FirmTofu wrote:
Blazinghand is town. He's actively pushing the thread forward and his read on on me seems genuine. Forcing people to take sides on the RNG debate was a brilliant idea. Helps us out a great deal by holding people accountable for their empty stances. He's completely wrong about me, but his sincerity is clearly apparent.

4) Shit, strong town player is on to me! Better appease him too and I have to stick with my RNG stance now that the bluff has been called!


The only issue I have with this narrative is it almost seems...too obvious? Also regarding what I said about BH's progression of the RNG discussion by actually RNGing someone----would scum really get caught by that? I'm not going to use 'too scummy to be scum' here because I hate that heuristic, but this would be a very good place for it. Overall i'd have to lean scum simply based on the narrative but also based on what I know about my thoughts towards RNG and how I acted about it vs how FT did. If we're 'Keeping it Simple, Stupid,' FT must be scum.

Point (1) is good. That is a good point. While a townie could make that post, it's more likely to come from scum.
Point (2), I believe, is completely undermined by ft's joining the random lynch wagon and owning that he was doing it just because of the random lynch.
Point (3) is okay. not as good as point (1). could be indicative of scum but I don't find it super convincing since it came pretty early in the game when no one had good reasoning for reads (IIRC).
Point (4) is also good. This is kind of a weird post to make as town.

specifically because of wos's points 1 and 4, i actually feel like ft also has a pretty good chance of flipping scum. i still think, however, that shiaopi is a better bet - look at blazinghand's case on ft and apply that logic to shiaopi, combined with my arguments about the rng lynch and also about the discrepancy between how shiao can play and how he is playing.
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
September 30 2013 20:54 GMT
#1817
hes not, ive been telling people that all day.

but rayn and ve: look at shiao and at ft, why do you think ft is more likely to flip scum than shiao?
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
September 30 2013 20:54 GMT
#1818
cause i still feel like shiao is more likely than ft to.
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
September 30 2013 21:35 GMT
#1824
alright between those two wagons, i really do think shiaopi is more likely to flip scum. i'ma drop my vote on him for a while.

##vote: shiaopi
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
October 01 2013 03:07 GMT
#1874
Austin what do you think about my palmar case (and grack's case which is extra evidence for my case)

Also I get that you don't think ft is scum but what about shiaopi? He's currently the second realistic lynch option.
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
October 01 2013 04:15 GMT
#1887
On October 01 2013 12:28 austinmcc wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 01 2013 12:07 strongandbig wrote:
Austin what do you think about my palmar case (and grack's case which is extra evidence for my case)

Also I get that you don't think ft is scum but what about shiaopi? He's currently the second realistic lynch option.
SP I didn't get much from D1, I got nothing in read-through notes on him and just remembered he was one of the folks making a Koshi comment.

As far as him being a lynch option today...will read through in the EST morning and respond more fully. I find myself almost never wanting to lynch ShiaoPi because his schedule is never synched with the thread's and it always feels like he's pushable as a mislynch in games he rolls town. Just...very very wary of any push to lynch ShiaoPi.

Strongandbig : Drazerk :: austinmcc : ShiaoPi


oh man drazerk

okay i can feel ya
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
October 01 2013 15:06 GMT
#1962
These vote counts are the best thing ever.

I don't like how the shiaopi wagon has just defused without anyone ever actually defending him. Wos and co have given legitimate reasons why they think ft is more likely to flip scum than shiaopi, so that's okay. Although I really don't like koshi's complete indifference to which one of the two gets lynched.
What I don't see is any evidence that the people voting for vayne have actually put any reasoning into why he's a better lynch than shiaopi. Or even than FT, in some cases.

ChairmanRay - you have explained why you don't want to lynch tofu, but why did you vote vayne instead of shiaopi? Why is vayne more likely to flip scum than shiaopi is?
Pandain - why are you voting VA over tofu? You said earlier you thought tofu was scum and have reasons for it.
Tofu - did you do that filter diving like you said you would? Why'd you unvote shiaopi and then vote vayne?

Right now I'd rather lynch tofu than vayne, and will vote accordingly if necessary. The tofu case from wos is just more persuasive to me than the mini cases on vayne from pandain and ray. That said, shiaopi is my preferred lynch over either of those, and I don't understand why or how this push went away, so I'm keeping my vote there for now.
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
October 01 2013 18:53 GMT
#2079
Austin are you really planning on going allin on a last-hour-before-deadline switch to solstice? You're gonna have to persuade me that none of ft, shiaopi, or va are scum, and I'm currently of the opinion that at least one of them and probably two is/are. Like, if you're serious this is gonna take an effort.

Or are you just trying to about taking a stance. You've said why you don't think ft is scum but you're gonna need to give us more than "I usually think shiaopi is town" and "no comment on va" before you can just abstain out of this lynch.
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
October 02 2013 20:52 GMT
#2421
SUCK IT TOWN YOU GONNA GET MOTOR CITY BANGED
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
October 04 2013 20:18 GMT
#3135
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
October 04 2013 20:29 GMT
#3147
BEST BUS 2013
and then i died
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
strongandbig
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4858 Posts
October 12 2013 23:05 GMT
#6138
I'm pissed and in my opinion this game should have been ended early or koshi should have been forcibly replaced after sentinel fucked up and modconfirmed pandain as scum to koshi. Sure we didn't have a huge chance after cheese shot me but we had a chance, koshi himself said he wasn't sure if he would have shot pandain without the fuckup from sentinel.

Mod confirming a scum team member and then doing nothing about it is just unacceptable.
"It's the torso" "only more so!"
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