| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
On September 30 2013 08:34 Pandain wrote: Ray, do you want to vote FT with me now to get pressure going? If he's scum, it will force them to make a move. Yeah, I'm okay with that ##Vote: FirmTofu | ||
|
Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
I think it's safe to say that FirmTofu and ShiaoPi are not associated. I say this because FirmTofu is strongly going on ShiaoPi. If those two were of the same mafia faction, using bussing as a strategy is pointless since we have two mafia factions. All that's gonna happen is one being lynched tonight and the other the next night. Because of this, I'm going to assume they are not associated. Between FirmTofu and ShiaoPi, I like FirmTofu a lot more. Now that he's under a lot of pressure, instead of spending all his efforts explaining himself, he's trying to find better scum targets. He posted some good reads on ShiaoPi and myself. If FirmTofu goes after some of the really good players here, that would really show me he's town, because mafia would probably try to redirect the lynch onto the easiest targets. So I think there's still a good chance FirmTofu will flip scum, but overall, his last few pages still gave me better confidence. ##Unvote My strongest townread right now are on Koshi and austin. I think Koshi may be town because of the way he's playing. If he were mafia, after almost getting lynched the first day, the natural response would be to compensate by looking overly town. Looking through his filter, he's actually playing similarly to D1. I don't see any longposts, or tunneling, or strong reads on people. It's as if he doesn't need to prove that he's town. This reads pretty town to me. I think austin is town just because he's being very active right now without any obligation. Whoever the other replacement is still hasn't really been active yet, and there are a couple lurkers, so if he posts very little, he still wouldn't risk being lynched or shot. Additionally, he seems very caught up in the thread. If I were mafia, I would probably skim through pages at most, and tell people that I'm catching up, just so nobody expects me to do much. I think another person that looks kinda scummy to me is VayneAuthority. His last few posts were just complaining about lurkers and lack of contribution, and also a couple images. I think that if a town wanted more activity and information, he would start being more active himself, and pressure people to give information. Merely complaining about people lurking, or the general lack of activity in this thread doesn't actually make things better, plus, it also demoralizes townies. It really sets an alarm off for me when he says that he's "fine just chillin' until we lose". I think he's saying these things because he's mafia, and he's trying to give us an excuse to let him be passive. ##Vote VayneAuthority | ||
|
Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
On October 01 2013 14:13 VayneAuthority wrote: so who was the other person you thought was scum? You start off your paragraph with "I think another person" with there is no previous scumread that you gave. Was referring to FirmTofu and ShiaoPi. I didn't give any scumreads on them, but they're widely considered to be the most scummy right now. So I was basically saying "Besides the people who are already on our radar..." | ||
|
Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
2. It's not just caring or not caring about the game that points me to believe you are mafia. I think everyone in this game should care about the game, otherwise why would they join it in the first place? You seemed to care on the first day, so why don't you care now? What made the difference to me wasn't whether you cared or not, but rather that you were vocal about it. This seems very mafialike to me. If Koshi were to come out and say that he doesn't care much anymore, and he's just going to chill the rest of the game, I would question him as well. 3. The reason I think austin is town is because he was a replacement. You aren't. You showed us you are here, and you are active. Austin had every excuse to continue to lurk. That's why I think he's town. I would definitely like to hear more if you have something in mind. | ||
|
Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
A few other things. Why did you say you could do more, but withhold all your other information? Do you not want to give me more reasons to trust you? Personally, I think that's a part of the ploy. Think of it as one gunner telling the enemy that he has plenty more bullets, so he should back down, but his holster is actually empty. Any and all information is quite useful to the town right now. If you have more information that paints you as town, I would love to hear it so I could trust you and go after people that are more likely to be mafia. Why was your first reply about who else I thought was mafia? Personally if someone had a scumread on me, the last thing I would worry about is whatever other people they have a read on. Seems like mismatched priorities to me. I think you were trying to get another person into the picture, or to see if I slip, so you can attack that and divert the attention off of you. So basically, I think your conversation with me thus far has been heavily masked and constructed, and that's because you are mafia. | ||
|
Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
| ||
|
Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
 .Anyways, my personal opinion, I think it's best to go after people that have a possibility to be on a scumteam with SnB. If we can get rid of one scumteam, then the KP goes down. Reading through the filters, I think the strongest disconnect with SnB is probably Palmer. For this reason, even though Palmer might be a good lynch candidate, I wouldn't vote him myself just because I want to get rid of SnB's scumteam first. After a quick analysis, I don't think that there's much of a chance that VA and FT are on the same scumteam, and Palmer and FT are on the same scumteam either. There's a weak disconnect between VA and palmer, but that can go either way. So using the four people - VA, SnB, FT, and Palm, I will try to see if I can map out their alliance. Scenario A Scumteam: SnB, VA FT and Palmer cannot occupy third spot, and they are also disconnected, so one must be other scumteam, one must be town Scenario B Scumteam: SnB, FT VA and Palmer cannot occupy third spot. They can both be other scumteam, or one of the is scum, one is town. Among the three people VA, FT, and Palmer, here's the information that we will get from lynching them: VA - If he flips scum with SnB, then either FT or Palmer must be town. If he flips opposite scum, then FT is likely scum, or else both FT and Palmer are town. If he flips town, then FT and Palmer can be scum on opposite teams, or one is scum, one is town. FT - If he flips scum with SnB, then out of VA and palmer, one or both is on the other scumteam. If he flips other scumteam, then, Palmer is town, and VA is can either be town or scum with SnB, more likely scum with SnB. If he flips town, then we don't know much about Palmer and VA. Palmer - I don't want to lynch him, but if he flips other scumteam, then it doesn't say much about VA and FT, and if he flips town, it doesn't say much either. There's also solstice, which some people are pushing to vote. I think the only disconnect that can even be drawn with him is with Palmer, but it's not a very strong one. I also doubt he's gonna be lynched today, so there isn't much of a point trying to piece him in. I will do that tomorrow. Right now, I think I'm gonna put my vote on FT since there isn't that big a benefit lynching VA over him, and plus, I wanna save Palmer. ##Vote: FirmTofu | ||
|
Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
On October 04 2013 12:36 Pandain wrote: Ray you're relying on associative tells too much when scum busses each other all the time. Hell I could be busing Vayne and "Know" that he won't get lynched because people are set on FT/Palmar, and that's something I would reasonably do. I haven't played a multi-scum game before, but just thinking about it, I think that scum may try to poke at each other, or throw votes on each other, but they won't strongly bus each other. The reason is because if one of them flips scum, there still isn't a lot of safety for the other player. | ||
|
Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
| ||
|
Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
However there is still the possibility that VA is town though, and everything we've seen so far is exactly how he plays. But even in this scenario, we should still lynch VA. The reason is because we should not allow town to intentionally play very scummy and very unproductive. What if VA gets scum in a future game? What if nobody lynches him just because they can't read him? What is he going to contribute to town? We probably shouldn't let his playstyle be allowed to foster, so I'm gonna put my vote on him instead of FT. ##unvote ##Vote: VayneAuthority | ||
|
Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
| ||
|
Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
| ||
|
Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
Anyways, I'm gonna be catching up through the last 200+ posts that I missed, and post some reads. | ||
|
Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
| ||
|
Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
| ||
|
Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
Out of the surviving players, we still have: Koshi VisceraEyes Mr. Cheesecake Oatsmaster raynpelikoneet Chairman Ray WaveofShadow VayneAuthority austinmcc Pandain s0lstice With Koshi, rayn, VE, and Oats confirmed town, that leaves myself, CC, WoS, austin, Pandain, and solstice to be in the other mafia. I know I'm town, and I think that WoS and austin are town, so that leaves CC, Pandain and solstice. Anyways, I think that solstice strikes to be the most scum to me out of the bunch. His filter is mostly him questioning other people for reads and just saying certain people are a bit scummy or suspicious. He hasn't done any in depth reads or pushed strongly on anyone. This is something I find particularly scummy just because it makes you look town without helping town a whole lot. He was onto me at some point, but defended me at the end. I appreciate it, but I still can't take it as a bribe, because it's still fits within mafia agenda. I think that the best strategy for the second scum team to do right now is get a lot of town influence so they can have a mislynch the next day. Today we're obviously just lynching the last banger. Tomorrow we'll be looking for the second scumteam. With thee votepower on their side, it's really easy to get a mislynch. Solstice seems to be slowly pushing onto CC and austin, and I want to bring this up now before it happens in case one or both are town. If CC is town, then maybe I'm wrong on my WoS or austin read and one of them is actually mafia. It definitely makes sense for mafia to defend me and push for stronger targets, because tbh I don't think I'm a threat to mafia, but both CC and austin are, and a mislynch on them could be gamechanging. I think I'm going to be dissolving my trust on anyone except for the confirmed townies because the dominant strategy right now for mafia is to just gain influence. If a single townie is influences, then we might lose this. I don't wanna be that towny that votes wrong. So my recommendation is to lynch VA today, and then solstice tomorrow. ##Vote: VayneAuthority | ||
|
Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
On October 06 2013 07:14 austinmcc wrote: Chairman, why am I town? Do you think my attacks on you are legitimate? You think I'm town despite some of the folks thinking I'm mafia? What do you make of the above post? The cheesecake post. I think you are town because of the way you entered the game. A town can have the mindset to finding one particular scum and getting that scum lynched, taking it one day at a time, or a town can have the mindset of looking at the entire game in general and trying to decipher where everyone stands. A mafia can have the mindset of trying to push scum status onto one town and getting him mislynched, or a mafia can have the mindset to trying to make a fellow mafia look town, or even both. I think your playstyle fits best with the town that's looking at the entire game. You bring up a lot of reads onto people who are not currently under attack and a lot of it is pretty legitimate, even on me. This tells me that you are probably town. Just to address some of the criticisms on my activity, when I signed up for this mafia I thought I would have a lot more time, but then some irl commitments came up, and I'm trying to squeeze in sessions. I don't like to casually post a lot of one liners because whenever I come check the mafia thread, and there's like 8 new pages, I get a headache. I think it's best for town if they are not fishing in a sea of red herrings. As for the CC post, it gives me some reads on both CC and Oats. I think that even though Oats super defended Palmer, Palmer's team showed they are capable of anything since his show with SnB was really convincing that they were not both scum together. Looking for possible alliances isn't that effective against the Bangers. So I disagree with CC on that one. CC posting that however doesn't really indicate his alignment to me since that's a legitimate thing for both scum and town to do. Right now I'm giving him a slight town read just because I think solstice is mafia. Question, have we absolutely determined if Oats is town based on the cop shot? If not, I might take a look at him. | ||
|
Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
| ||
|
Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
##vote: solstice Looks pretty clear who our lynch should be. | ||
|
Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
I would prefer to lynch the solo banger over the other team, but I think a confirmed scum is probably better than risking it. | ||
| ||
|
|
OSC
uThermal 2v2 Circuit
The PondCast
Online Event
Korean StarCraft League
CranKy Ducklings
BSL20 Non-Korean Champi…
Mihu vs QiaoGege
Zhanhun vs Dewalt
Fengzi vs TBD
Online Event
Sparkling Tuna Cup
BSL20 Non-Korean Champi…
Bonyth vs TBD
[ Show More ] |
|
|
EPT
