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On August 03 2013 07:57 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On August 03 2013 07:56 Clarity_nl wrote:
I think if xrz flips town we can figure the game out d4.
They'll probably kill rayn, or I suppose they might just roleblock him when xrz flips town.
Best scenario is if xrz flips roleblocker.
Like, are you assuming that scum cannot have a roleblocker and GF hz? Could you explain your reasoning? Clarity, there is one cop and one vet (which can´t be blocked). The setup is already hard as it´s 10 vs 4. Do you think there is a godfather + roleblocker vs one cop?
How many PR does scum have normally?
It does make sense that they might have used janitor on Rayn this night. That's why he is alive!
But then they would use janitor on Vayne. Mehhhhh
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On August 03 2013 07:57 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On August 03 2013 07:56 Clarity_nl wrote:
I think if xrz flips town we can figure the game out d4.
They'll probably kill rayn, or I suppose they might just roleblock him when xrz flips town.
Best scenario is if xrz flips roleblocker.
Like, are you assuming that scum cannot have a roleblocker and GF hz? Could you explain your reasoning? Clarity, there is one cop and one vet (which can´t be blocked). The setup is already hard as it´s 10 vs 4. Do you think there is a godfather + roleblocker vs one cop?
I see it as a possibility, but yes it's unlikely. That's why if xrz flips red I really don't wanna lynch cjs
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20 pages in 12 hours what is this
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On August 03 2013 08:00 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:
20 pages in 12 hours what is this
rayn happened. :D
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On August 03 2013 08:00 Clarity_nl wrote:Show nested quote +On August 03 2013 07:57 raynpelikoneet wrote:On August 03 2013 07:56 Clarity_nl wrote:
I think if xrz flips town we can figure the game out d4.
They'll probably kill rayn, or I suppose they might just roleblock him when xrz flips town.
Best scenario is if xrz flips roleblocker.
Like, are you assuming that scum cannot have a roleblocker and GF hz? Could you explain your reasoning? Clarity, there is one cop and one vet (which can´t be blocked). The setup is already hard as it´s 10 vs 4. Do you think there is a godfather + roleblocker vs one cop? I see it as a possibility, but yes it's unlikely. That's why if xrz flips red I really don't wanna lynch cjs
You probably know more about the setup than me. Assuming that Xrz flips scum goon and scum do not have both anti-cop PRs, then the percentage play is actually to lynch FT day 4, because even if he flips town we still win (just lynch Cora and Clarity). If FT flips scum we are 6-1.
Now, that is all assuming that Xrz flips scum. If Xrz flips town then we are 5-3, but with 3 confirmed town.
I think we are getting really good odds from an xrz lynch even if you think that the chance of him being scum is not super high.
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On August 03 2013 07:59 Koshi wrote:Show nested quote +On August 03 2013 07:57 raynpelikoneet wrote:On August 03 2013 07:56 Clarity_nl wrote:
I think if xrz flips town we can figure the game out d4.
They'll probably kill rayn, or I suppose they might just roleblock him when xrz flips town.
Best scenario is if xrz flips roleblocker.
Like, are you assuming that scum cannot have a roleblocker and GF hz? Could you explain your reasoning? Clarity, there is one cop and one vet (which can´t be blocked). The setup is already hard as it´s 10 vs 4. Do you think there is a godfather + roleblocker vs one cop? How many PR does scum have normally? It does make sense that they might have used janitor on Rayn this night. That's why he is alive! But then they would use janitor on Vayne. Mehhhhh
But then they would use janitor on Vayne. Mehhhhh
Ok this is the 3rd time I edited this game. I don't know what is wrong with me.
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I know I will get shit for posting this, but if scum cannot have both RB and GF...
Clarity, I be a gentleman and make this clear: If you are scum and we lynch Exar today, you cannot possibly win as long as town sticks to a set of pre-determined lynches, so you and I do not even need to argue about it! 
If Exar flips red today and you are town we will end up 6-1 on day 5, again as long as town agree to stick to a plan based on there not being both a godfather and roleblocker.
If Exar flips green then we are 5-3 on day 4 but with 3 confirmed town (hzflank, Clarity and Cora).
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Oats is also confirmed if XRZ is town.
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On August 03 2013 08:04 hzflank wrote:Show nested quote +On August 03 2013 08:00 Clarity_nl wrote:On August 03 2013 07:57 raynpelikoneet wrote:On August 03 2013 07:56 Clarity_nl wrote:
I think if xrz flips town we can figure the game out d4.
They'll probably kill rayn, or I suppose they might just roleblock him when xrz flips town.
Best scenario is if xrz flips roleblocker.
Like, are you assuming that scum cannot have a roleblocker and GF hz? Could you explain your reasoning? Clarity, there is one cop and one vet (which can´t be blocked). The setup is already hard as it´s 10 vs 4. Do you think there is a godfather + roleblocker vs one cop? I see it as a possibility, but yes it's unlikely. That's why if xrz flips red I really don't wanna lynch cjs You probably know more about the setup than me. Assuming that Xrz flips scum goon and scum do not have both anti-cop PRs, then the percentage play is actually to lynch FT day 4, because even if he flips town we still win (just lynch Cora and Clarity). If FT flips scum we are 6-1. Now, that is all assuming that Xrz flips scum. If Xrz flips town then we are 5-3, but with 3 confirmed town. I think we are getting really good odds from an xrz lynch even if you think that the chance of him being scum is not super high.
Yep.
Isn't it great that despite you thinking I'm scum we still agree?
Anyway, I'm off to bed. Catch you all tomorrow.
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I take it you did not agree with my point on why Exar un-claimed cop, Rayn? 
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On August 03 2013 08:14 hzflank wrote:I take it you did not agree with my point on why Exar un-claimed cop, Rayn?
Yeah i don´t. That´s so far-fetched and Cora is right about that.
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I'm confused. How are CJS and Clarity confirmed scum if XRZ = scum and I = town?
This seems to be based purely on speculative associations and I see no reason to believe that this is even remotely likely.
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On August 03 2013 08:16 FirmTofu wrote:
I'm confused. How are CJS and Clarity confirmed scum if XRZ = scum and I = town?
This seems to be based purely on speculative associations and I see no reason to believe that this is even remotely likely.
Why would scum-xrz possibly of fake-claimed cop when he did? If he is scum he would have to of had a reason, no? Unless you think he did it just to mess with us?
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On August 03 2013 08:16 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On August 03 2013 08:14 hzflank wrote:I take it you did not agree with my point on why Exar un-claimed cop, Rayn? Yeah i don´t. That´s so far-fetched and Cora is right about that.
Meh, in my mind xrz had just been asked to justify why he cop checked Oats, so that whole paragraph was him justifying it.
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Right. Means CJS is scum but not necessarily clarity although possible.
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On August 03 2013 08:19 justanothertownie wrote:
Right. Means CJS is scum but not necessarily clarity although possible.
Rayn got a green check on CJS. He cannot be scum unless godfather. If CJS is godfather than Clarity was not roleblocked.
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If no one agrees with me then I need to look at it again tomorrow. I am very comfortable with this game as long as I know why xrz unclaimed. Otherwise I have no clue what is going on.
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You are pretty damn sure of your setup speculation. What if there actually is a doctor for example? Or the setup is just a bit different (I believe stutters said something about KPs)?
If you are right about the setup clarity is scum in this situation that's right.
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On August 03 2013 08:17 hzflank wrote:Show nested quote +On August 03 2013 08:16 FirmTofu wrote:
I'm confused. How are CJS and Clarity confirmed scum if XRZ = scum and I = town?
This seems to be based purely on speculative associations and I see no reason to believe that this is even remotely likely. Why would scum-xrz possibly of fake-claimed cop when he did? If he is scum he would have to of had a reason, no? Unless you think he did it just to mess with us?
There are two possible reasons
1) To get people off of CJS.
2) To make a big play by attempting to confirm (possibly) his entire team as town in the process.
Yes, CJS is a good candidate, but not because he's related to Clarity. He's a good candidate because he's XRZ could've made the play to make him look town and probably another teammate as well.
Sorry, I was more asking about how Clarity is scum, not CJS.
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EPT
