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Newbie Mini Mafia XLIV - Page 12

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
July 19 2013 00:02 GMT
#2060
lol oops
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
July 19 2013 00:04 GMT
#2062
I was kinda freaking out because my giant post was too long, but I guess you can just ignore that now...
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
July 19 2013 00:27 GMT
#2075
I'm not sure if I should be happy that I didn't actually hard defend scum D1, or sad because I was off on everything else...
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
July 19 2013 01:23 GMT
#2095
On July 18 2013 04:18 Xzavier wrote:

However gotard does look scummy, i see him as a serious lynch candidate, but who the fuck is running against him to die? Nobody? isnt that strange in and of itself. When there are mutliple scummy people in the game and only one of them is getting votes? shouldnt scum buddies be atleast SEMI-attempting to defend him? It seems to me like scum are okay with this lynch, and that is worrysome. there was no resistance to his case (basically) and i cant imagine people full-bussing when all they would have to do is ask/answer harmless questions and make pro-town moves to do it.


I'm at either Onegu or Xzavier now, but this is a point in favor of Xzav as it stands. This originally looked bad because he's basically soft defending Gotard, but hz voted for Gotard much earlier. If the scumteam was going to bus by that point, there would be no reason for Xzav to make himself look bad by soft defending Gotard and holding off voting for as long as possible, if he knows that Gotard will flip scum anyway.

I'm planning on taking a break for the night to clear my head. In the morning I'll read filters yet again, and read my Onegu case and post it if I still find it convincing.
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
July 19 2013 19:00 GMT
#2110
Onegu and Xzav, who do you want to lynch today and why?
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
July 19 2013 22:15 GMT
#2114
I'd like to hold my thoughts on pretty much everything until after Xzav and Onegu post.
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
July 20 2013 03:35 GMT
#2117
I was planning on waiting until Xzav or Onegu posted, but I'm just going to post my case as soon as I have time to write it.
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
July 20 2013 03:42 GMT
#2120
What about the whole "hz was going to get Super lynched D1" thing, does that play a factor in your thinking at all?
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
July 20 2013 04:39 GMT
#2127
Yeah, but he doesn't ever interact with Onegu and only talked about Stim once.

What I find very interesting is that hz never pressures Xzav even though he would be an easy mislynch, and actually would have tried to get Umasi lynched over Xzav. Xzav would have been an easy target for mafia to push, but they never did.
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
July 20 2013 05:10 GMT
#2130
The worst part about Xzav is that his reads are literally a transcription of town sentiment.

Here's his original read on Kirby:
On July 14 2013 02:35 Xzavier wrote:
jrkirby: claims he has a null read on stim- after doing sensible things when you have a null read, like trying to calm him down to remove emotion from his posts (because an angry poster is a bad poster), his entire take on stim can be summed up by his last post:
Show nested quote +
On July 13 2013 13:42 jrkirby wrote:
I don't think he's thinking through what he's saying. His actions don't seem town because they're foolish from every way you look at them. But that doesn't make him clearly scum.

But on the road to getting there he seemed to tunnel him the least of all and keep his options around on everybody, i like how he didnt just total tunnel vision him like chrom, because he helps the town far more by simply looking at others. I like that. he pressured hurricane and has spoken to half the thread, that much i like. He may be hedging as stim just said, but i think its early enough that it might not be the worst of things to do early day1, but if he keeps it up it will look might suspicious. Right now i feel like hes town still. i am happy that somebody brought up the hedging point, because before i saw that i had him pegged as one of my stronger town reads, now i can see a smart ruse that i might have totally fallen for.

A stronger town read, but when Kirby comes under more pressure and becomes a serious lynch target:

On July 15 2013 05:13 Xzavier wrote:
honestly, between jkirby and super im kinda stunned. I see them both as scummy as shit. Right now i dont even feel the need to OMGUS super because his vote on my was without a case and the only case he made wasnt even on me.

No reasoning given, just a plain 180 based on town sentiment.

On July 16 2013 07:03 Xzavier wrote:
i remember asking people to check the Tribunal after it was just the three of them, what i mostly wanted to know was who tried to join them, nobody came out and directly said as such, but when the list of votes they controlled came out somebody knew was on the list:

Nightcat, a hardcore lurker at the time.

now he was not invited to join this team, i dont recall him asking to either, i just remember him following the wishes of it.(However indirectly as it may be) This blinks scummy on my scumdar.

Show nested quote +
On July 15 2013 08:19 Nightcat99 wrote:
can you make a case defending why you would not vote for JrKirby at this time?

Can you tell me why you think Superfluous is the better lynch target?


no i cannot make a case to not vote for jrkirby because i stated that i want to make sure to have 1 person lynch, when i came back it seem super was the more likely target but since you guys disagree.

##UNVOTE
##VOTE JRKIRBY


being given the option of switching his vote for a simple reason of "since you guys disagree" and not making a case or updating any reads is bad, because its a super easy for scum to hide without drawing any attention to himself. his entire reason for voting is "the person whos more likely to be lynched" thats a roundabout way of describing a scums voting pattern. they want to blend in and not stick out. So throwing his vote early and the person more likely to be lynched is a great way to lurk successfully.

My scumdar says Scum on nightcat right now

______
now im happy with how hurricane reacted to me saying keep your circle small and that further solidifies my stupidly massive town read on him(sponge) (scum would want to try to control as many votes as possible, they would already control the "holes" in there town circle) so the people saying that one of the three is scum, its not him: The points brought up against rainbow has totally shattered the confidence of my town read on him, his actions are nonsensical. I think that Usami is town still as he has played a far more pro-town game and has cut out almost all of his spam (from games iv previously played with him) while i know meta is bad to use for a case in newbie games, but i feel like a scum wouldnt try so hard to improve his town play as they would replicate it. This is another reason for my Umasi read after all of that.

if we are assuming scum tried to get one player onto the "tribunal" they were either succesful and got Rainbows on it, or used it as an excuse for nightcat to sheep his vote.

Xzav never mentions Nightcat before this, but as soon as pressure starts building onto Nightcat, Xzav randomly makes a case on him that he NEVER pushes at all.

This part is even weirder given the whole top 3 thing, where Nightcat was apparently not even in Xzav's top 3 scumreads. But, for some reason, Xzav felt it was better for him to make a case on Nightcat as opposed to, say, Super, his top scumread.

He also totally 180s on Rainbows because of "the points brought up against him", no explanation given. Rainbows was apparently in his "top 3 town" earlier, but the few things that people said about him were good enough to switch that read to "top 3 scum" (when the points were really not that convincing).

Other stuff:

On July 16 2013 10:00 Xzavier wrote:
well shit 2 of my 3 top scumreads just died, leaving 1 alone at the top:

sup super.

##VOTE SUPERFLUOUS

this will be removed once you start some LIGIT scumhunting none of that "vote for one guy, make a case on another guy" bullshits okay?

if i dont think youve done an adequate job/you look more scummy as the day goes on expect this to stay, and a case to be made along with it.

This actually doesn't make sense at all. Apparently Super is his top scumread, so Xzav is convinced that Super is scum. Then why would you EVER tell your scumread how to get them to stop voting you? That defeats the whole purpose.

On July 18 2013 04:18 Xzavier wrote:
However gotard does look scummy, i see him as a serious lynch candidate, but who the fuck is running against him to die? Nobody? isnt that strange in and of itself. When there are mutliple scummy people in the game and only one of them is getting votes? shouldnt scum buddies be atleast SEMI-attempting to defend him? It seems to me like scum are okay with this lynch, and that is worrysome. there was no resistance to his case (basically) and i cant imagine people full-bussing when all they would have to do is ask/answer harmless questions and make pro-town moves to do it.

I said earlier that this didn't make sense from scum because they were already bussing, but that was wrong. This is more likely just scum fishing to see if anyone would switch to Super so that they can push that instead.

The rest of his filter is fluff, he does some coaching which is really easy to do as scum.

And trying to get Super lynched today is just a stupid move that shows that he's not honestly thinking as town, Super is clearly a really bad lynch today to anyone trying to find scum at all.

##Vote: Xzavier
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
July 20 2013 17:44 GMT
#2142
So we should lynch Super over you because he's a lurker? Even though his chances of being a good lynch are halved because he's not scum?
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
July 20 2013 18:51 GMT
#2147
I cannot believe that Xzav honestly thinks we should lurker lynch, on D3, while assuming a D1 bus.

If he's town, he doesn't give a shit about winning.
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
July 20 2013 21:19 GMT
#2156
Maybe that was a bit harsh, but here's the deal:

I'm not saying that Super is a shining paragon of towniness, because he's clearly not. But he's a suboptimal lynch for today because he's not scum. The chances that he was actually bussed D1 are so minuscule that we have to ignore at this point. Tomorrow, maybe, today we need a for sure lynch.

The reasons for lynching Super that Xzav has brought are just that he's lurking, which is clearly not good enough at this point.

At least Super has had some original opinions and reads.
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
July 20 2013 21:21 GMT
#2157
Nightcat, what is the slipup that you think that you caught? I didn't understand that post.
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
July 20 2013 21:25 GMT
#2160
He meant that he will post a case tonight, which he did...

How is that a scumslip in any case?
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
July 20 2013 21:34 GMT
#2163
I agree that his Gotard vote looks bad, if that's what you're saying. I don't understand what you don't like about that one sentence, still.

There are a lot of things I don't like about Onegu, but not as many as I don't like about Xzav.
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
July 20 2013 21:55 GMT
#2167
Another thing about Onegu is that hz was the first person to hop on to Onegu's pressure on Sponge. I feel like scum would avoid openly associating like that, and especially avoid drawing attention to the both of them in such a big way.


On July 16 2013 11:14 hzflank wrote:
Also, remember that Onegu is the new Stim. Stim was never fully cleared.

Onegu should be in the: No way in hell we are lynching him today category, but that does not make him likely town.

There's also this post which just throws dirt onto Onegu for no reason, and I don't see a point to posting this as scum.

hz gave a full-on scumread to Gotard, but he only did that when Gotard was under pressure and it would look really wierd if he didn't. This post here didn't give him any towncred, so the only purpose was to put some suspicion on Onegu.
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
July 21 2013 00:01 GMT
#2171
On July 14 2013 02:35 Xzavier wrote:
Chromatically: Tunnels the fuck out of him quite uncharacteristically

lynch all liars
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
July 21 2013 04:54 GMT
#2178
This is actually just a 100% win for town.

Jailkeeper should claim now along with who they're going to jail tonight (either Alaka, Nightcat, or Super).

Reasoning:

Umasi and I are confirmed town because we were roleblocked on nights where there were 2 kills. Neither of us are the JK.

This means that JK and SK are both in the group of: Alaka, Nightcat, and Super.

JK claims now and says which of the other 2 they'll RB.

If a kill occurs:
We lynch the one who was not roleblocked, 100% SK.

If no kill occurs:
We get an extra mislynch (4-1 > 2-1), so we can lynch both of the nonconfirmed town and win.
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
July 21 2013 05:28 GMT
#2181
I was thinking that I was both jailed and RBd, but someone might have just screwed up and not claimed.

Might have made things a little less complicated, but doesn't really matter at this point.
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