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On July 05 2013 06:24 Lazermonkey wrote:
EBWOP: Like I really hope you understand that argument doesn't even make even the slightest sense. Have you never seen someone just lose hope when they think they are about to get lynched? Or just went AFK?
Oh, to answer you question, WOS claimed Rb because A) he had to, as his fake claim was vig anyways (probally no matter what) and for reasons I've gone on at length about he cant claim any other role because he risks pissing off scum or town directly, and makes his chances of losing 50 50, also he cant claim survivor because scum might kill him to make they're kps unblockable, or town might lynch him because they dont know whose scum. If you think scum or town wouldn't thats fine, WOS on the other hand decided to try and account for all possibilities seeing as he couldn't know what scum or town was going to do.
B) he was trying to insinuate the existence of a survivor by claiming a role block, meaning he was protected/roleblocked by actual Landa. Scum would have to assume Landa might exist, owned a fake claim seeing as they got some too, was still out there supposedly protecting blues and was in particular WOS's guardian angel. Even if scum still doesn't buy it they see that hes sowing descent among blues and realize hes no threat. The plan came appart when town wouldn't believe it, which is what happened because it was a plan tailored to appease scum above all.
Lastly allow me to make this clear, scums agenda is that of trying to survive the day with three members intact. Claiming survivor is ideal for this purpose because town needs to lynch scum. Alternatively 3rd p admitting himself is pretty much just him handing over the game. Doesn't matter to him if he dies today, tonight or tomorrow, if hes dead at all hes done. And If he wins it's not because of his own play.
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On July 05 2013 07:06 marvellosity wrote:
Dick-analysis theory confirmed (mostly).
Dont you go taking all the credit now : P.
Kk, so this effectively confirms Marv's innocence, by extension it confirms Lazer's probably as in why miller if no cop ect ect.
Also I really doubt Oats is scum, his actions today just did not fit if he is. Wos is third party, Vivax soaked up a shot. Cant comment on Gumshoe, biased about him. This leaves a pool of three players.
Jar Jar, who strongly opposed todays list, and whose claim (the only reasons we let him go day 1) now means nothing( I wanna kill him first in case you cant tell XD).
Stutters, who just went along with it. Just like hes done all game long.
and Solstice who flip flopped until it looked like town was gonna secure the lynch on scum.
I propose 2 out of the three of these players has to be scum. The only other player who really could be scum is Lazer, but I doubt it as I said before.
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Ebwop, kill on line 5, not list.
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On July 05 2013 07:15 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On July 05 2013 07:12 gumshoe wrote:On July 05 2013 07:06 marvellosity wrote:
Dick-analysis theory confirmed (mostly). Dont you go taking all the credit now : P. Kk, so this effectively confirms Marv's innocence, by extension it confirms Lazer's probably as in why miller if no cop ect ect. Also I really doubt Oats is scum, his actions today just did not fit if he is. Wos is third party, Vivax soaked up a shot. Cant comment on Gumshoe, biased about him. This leaves a pool of three players. Jar Jar, who strongly opposed todays list, and whose claim (the only reasons we let him go day 1) now means nothing( I wanna kill him first in case you cant tell XD). Stutters, who just went along with it. Just like hes done all game long. and Solstice who flip flopped until it looked like town was gonna secure the lynch on scum. I propose 2 out of the three of these players has to be scum. The only other player who really could be scum is Lazer, but I doubt it as I said before. Pretty sure I've been pretty effusive towards you already, you greedy bastard. I'm not willing to extend your veil of 'confirmedness' over nearly so many people. s0lstice and JJD are looking the worst to me now, just on feels. JJD completely disappeared after arguing at the lynch, and after I posed him the dick-move analysis question; he couldn't answer it, and he couldn't bullshit because he played mafia with WoS. s0lstice just hasn't been producing the level of effort and analysis that I expect from him (see Les Mis for comparison)
XD Sorry, couldn't have done it without ya : P
The two I'm extending a townie vibe out to are Lazer and Oats. Though they're are no guaranteed facts as to why, Oats really cant be scum. His agenda day 2 was utterly different from that of maintaining two kp. In fact if he was scum, when I proposed killing myself to get at WOS (forgive me, he was totally bullshiiting at the time and we didn't know survivor or fake roles were in game) he was totally off put by the idea. If he was scum he would have pushed it at least a little, seeing as it would've been gg for town. He also advocated no lynch... you yourself said that was ridic for scum and I agree. Plus we probably wouldn't have been able to lynch Fuba without him, and he was leaning WOS pretty much just a little while ago. Oats is def town.
As for Lazer, your miller man, you have no reason to doubt his claim XD It would also mean role blockers would only be able to roleblock each others role blocks... well know better after Lazer's night 2 read but pretty sure Igrock wouldn't only put reactionary blue roles into the game and have half the blues be fake. Plus his overall scumminess is meh in contrast with Jar Jar.
So yeah, back to the three.
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On July 05 2013 07:43 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On July 05 2013 07:33 marvellosity wrote:
Your theory is already debunked because fuba wasn't one of your 3 and he just flipped.
Gonna start playing yet, Vivax? Why did you bus him though. Gotta take a better look at it. Lazer + marv is still entirely possible.
He bussed him because I convinced him. Or do you feel that you and Marv are the only people in this game capable of affecting it's outcome? Why are you stretching so godamm far? Why overcomplicate the narrative? Scum would try and keep 2kp and not buss one of they're own unless absolutely necessary. Period.
Stop trying to make scum Marv happen, it's not going to happen.
Also as a note to everyone, I'm pretty darn set on Jar Jar, he was my strongest early read and you all know how one can be about they're first true love, but I really dont want to be Vivax, so I'll try and look at everyone else including Lazer and I'm still open to a case in Jar Jar's defence. Unless it's comes from him : P.
That said I'm confident that between Solstice and Jar Jar, one has to be scum.
Btw we are still effectively in Lylo T_T .
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In response to Vivax.
On July 04 2013 10:21 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On July 04 2013 10:15 gumshoe wrote:Oh on the note of fakeclaims, scum absolutely received fakeclaims, likely around the same time as I did. THIS is why I believe Lazer is town, by the way, and probably JJD too, unless I was an oversight on the part of iGrok. (If you guys believe 3 blues is balanced then Vivax and gumshoe are town as well. If not, well then you guys have another problem on your hands. ) This is why there was no counterclaiming of any roles; as I stated before, there are just enough green/blue roles for everyone (including scum/3p) to claim. The order of people claiming means exactly DICK ALL for this reason, so those of you who said solstice is town 'cause he claimed early? Yeah, no. Note the bolded, this right here is appeasement of scum. The big wtf change to the game occurred at 08:38 on July 1st Jar Jars claim occurred on July 1st 23:47 Jar Jar Lazer happened on July second at 05:56. Both after. No one is clear except Marv, whose claim happened at the very start of the game. Course this begs the question, why did Fuba claim survivor if he had a fake? We can only assume he was given the other miller role, which really really sucks for him. Technically scum would have been able to share whatever fakeclaims they got; I'd assume fuba really did get back and that was all that was left to him so they decided outing me by fakeclaiming 3P was the best thing to do since miller claiming would probably get him lynched anyway. Yeah as for Lazer/JJD claims I don't know. I wasn't even around at that point and didn't bother to check the timestamps lol. Meh. 
So I press him here on what Jar Jars talking about, he ends up coming off somewhere in the middle by the end. My honest opinion is that hes trying to cover for scum so that they dont shoot him. Again, why make things easy on any paticular side? He only helped us today because it's his ass on the line.
They'res only one thing pretty much for certain. The fake claims were a result of the pause. Nothing else would warrant a pause. Night 2 began 24 hours after the pause. WOS claims he got his role later in the day, not a day later. Also Jar Jar's claim occurred a while before night 2. Jar Jar would have us believe Igrock, survivor and scum did not foresee the issue of mass claims. I find that requires me to believe extraordinarily unflattering things about my fellow players and our majestic overlord.
Also WOS is probably lying to cover his own ass, the dude doesn't want to help us. Above all take away the fake claims, just judge Jar Jar on his own merit. Do not rely on a flip flopping scum teasing survivor.
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On July 05 2013 08:49 JarJarDrinks wrote:Show nested quote +On July 05 2013 08:45 gumshoe wrote:
Also WOS is probably lying to cover his own ass, the dude doesn't want to help us. Above all take away the fake claims, just judge Jar Jar on his own merit. Do not rely on a flip flopping scum teasing survivor.
Sounds like a good plan. So when you took your vote off of me originally, I assume it's because you believed my claim. So why don't you believe it now? Did something change your mind?
................I took my vote off you because you claimed before we knew they're were fake claims in the game........................
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Thats literally the only reason why.
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On July 05 2013 08:54 marvellosity wrote:
Seems reasonably likely to me scum got their fakeclaims at the start to be honest.
"But marv!" I hear you say. "You have no basis for saying that! Why scum and not survivor?"
Well I have first-hand experience as a host with mucking up giving claims slightly. Newbie XXX I think. In any case, I gave scum the VT role PM at the start, but forgot to give it to the blues until halfway through Day 1 (sound familiar? xD). Precedent for scum getting things in a timely manner and other people not :p
Fine then, that still doesn't change Jar Jar's situation. Judge him based on his actions, not the claim, sadly I'm not gonna be the one to make the case. Scum will just scream confirmation bias and Wifom from the hills. I'll pick someone else(more than one scum after all) and present my findings before night ends. Though I doubt scum will waste role block and shot on me.
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On July 05 2013 08:59 WaveofShadow wrote:
iGrok should be counted as a player in this game for the amount he gets referenced.
##Vote: iGrok
I thought you were trying not to get mod killed. Also it's night time dummy, we can't vote yet : P
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On July 05 2013 09:08 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On July 05 2013 08:58 gumshoe wrote:On July 05 2013 08:54 marvellosity wrote:
Seems reasonably likely to me scum got their fakeclaims at the start to be honest.
"But marv!" I hear you say. "You have no basis for saying that! Why scum and not survivor?"
Well I have first-hand experience as a host with mucking up giving claims slightly. Newbie XXX I think. In any case, I gave scum the VT role PM at the start, but forgot to give it to the blues until halfway through Day 1 (sound familiar? xD). Precedent for scum getting things in a timely manner and other people not :p Fine then, that still doesn't change Jar Jar's situation. Judge him based on his actions, not the claim, sadly I'm not gonna be the one to make the case. Scum will just scream confirmation bias and Wifom from the hills. I'll pick someone else(more than one scum after all) and present my findings before night ends. Though I doubt scum will waste role block and shot on me. This is the silliest thing you've written so far this game, gumshoe. There's currently 2 scum and 7 not-scum, for starters. If you have a good case to make, then make it.
Still not as silly as half the things vixax has said : P besides, I'm confident I can find the other scum player and If one ignores the claim, it's extraordinarily easy for any town player to make a case against Jar Jar,you don't need me for that. You have my vote against him if you want it, aside from that I say his claim argument is utter bullshit, look strictly at his posting his accusations and his motives and you'll pretty much just see what I see, a scum version of Oats.
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I'm going off for awhile, later all, gl.
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On July 06 2013 05:38 marvellosity wrote:
##Vote: Zappadappa
Of course! It makes sense now! it was Roger all along!
Totally sheeping Marv on this one.
##:Vote Zappadappa
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On July 06 2013 05:38 kitaman27 wrote:
HI ROGER!
Wow Kita, just wow, do you know how rude it is to use a mafia game as your own personal chat? Apologize to us all. Right now. Except to Jar Jar, hes scum and probably benefited from your little distraction. In fact how much is he paying you? I'll double it if you promise to just stay out of thread.
Oh and you need to doubly make amends to Roger, he was making a brilliant case before you so rudely interrupted.
In fact
##Vote: Kitaman27
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On July 06 2013 05:53 marvellosity wrote:
gumshoe, do me a favour - go read the back and forth (or whatever it was) that Stutters and fuba had. It doesn't feel like mafia on mafia to me. Agree/disagree?
Already done. Agree. It's not. Comparatively Stutters is Jar Jars number one town read for 90 percent of the game. Why XD?
Stutters does not recicporcate. In fact Stutters is not scum period.
Well I would still be for JJD but Jesus Fuba either needs to explain or die. Why can't you get a read on me? Comparing me to someone with a different playstyle while softing I'm scummy but starting I'm town isn't going to cut it. Where's your usual good analysis?
Him condemning a confirmed scum player over a suspicious player? Yeah, not scum. All game long hes been suspicious of Fuba and JJd. Why is JJD so forgiving and unmentioning of him when he pretty much made me his number on target for attacking him? Stutters kept up his case long after I quit as well / :
JJD is sheeping Stutters cause he knows hes a likely to be lynched townie. He was just waiting for the flip to say I told you so.
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Stutters pretty much goes out of his way to advocate a Fuba lynch that almost happened. I'll reiterate, scum need to keep 2kp, thats they're only real goal in this setup.
Also this out of Jar Jar.
I'm assuming I die for sure. W/ the mass claim looming they can't leave me alive because I'm close to confirmed town as well as uncounterable @ this point.
not necesarily my order of scumminess (though close) but this is the order I think people should claim. Use it if I die:
gumshoe and marvellosity - get these out of the way first. Marv doesnt really need to @ this point but cant hurt.
s0Lstice - was one of my earliest suspects and has been so insanely quiet I almost forgot he was still playing
WaveofShadow -
raynpelikoneet - I do have a history of reading scum rayn as town. I'm really not sure about him anymore. I think this whole marv/lazor thing did make sense @ the time however I feel like he's trying to direct attention away from the whole mass claim which should be the first order of business tomorrow.
mkfuba07 -
Oatsmaster -
Stutters695 -
Vivax - First person to bring up a mass claim gets him lotsa townie points
I think that's everyone.
Before all that though see if lazer claims to have caught a red and have that person claim first. Though I'd be shocked if he says he came back w/ an unblocked check regardless of alignment.
man rayns last few posts are serious WTFs.
This is a list to determine reveal order so that towns suspicious suspects cant weasel into a leftover role. Why is Sutters, the source of much controversy to say the least, effectively the most townie person here aside from Vivax!? Or rather the person we would pretty much LEAST benefit from an earlier reveal of his role?
Also I feel this is important to note no matter how obvius, a major component of feeling someones towny is the that they agree with you. True I might feel that Vivax is town, but thats only because of his veteran block, or Oats is town even when we disagree, because hes just too godamm bullish at times to be scumXD(again, no hate, couldnt have done anything without your help before : P), but even then I dont find them as townie as Marv. Because competent players who agree with you for legitimate reasons that end up validating themselves (in the case of Fubas lynch) are the indication that you are on the right path.
Comparatively JJ's one sided love of Stutters bears no indications of this fundamental philosophy of a townie. He doesnt seem to care that his near number one town read has totally different views than him(going so far as to accuse him).
He repeats this odd trend at least one more here and probally more but meh.
Well, I did mention that I'm now leaning town on rayne based on his recent postings. I do happen to disagree w/ almost all of his reads though. Lazer I'm not sure of. I don't think that there'd be more than 1 scum piling on me and I have a strong scumread on gumshoe. I think you're town. I think you've made decent cases that have actual substance.
It's fine to find someone townie if you think theyre lynch bait or something, but to totally disregard they're views as well? Hes not looking for fellow townies or convincing theories, hes looking for a way to make himself look townie by association or via flip postmortem.
Also what ever happened to his Solstice read? He pushed it a bit at the start then kept in the rear view mirror all game long. Then never brought it up again after night ones end. He has not once voted for Solstice this game, and for the last half of it he has not even mentioned him. His supposed number two scum read...
Look, if nothing else think of it this way. Jar Jar has been wrong about everything and everyone all game long.
Rayne= flip flopped a bunch, final say was - I do have a history of reading scum rayn as town. I'm really not sure about him anymore. I think this whole marv/lazor thing did make sense @ the time however I feel like he's trying to direct attention away from the whole mass claim which should be the first order of business tomorrow.
scummy pretty much. He was wrong.
Fuba: wrong.
Wos: Wrong.
Me: Wrong.
Marv: Wrong.
If you have any faith in Jar Jar as a player, please please for the love of all that is good, give him your vote of confidence.
In fact on the off chance that I believed Jar Jar was town, I would totally vote for Stutters. Seeing as it would be a shame for Jar Jar to miss out on the chance for a"perfect" game.
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HAH beat you by 30 or so seconds stutters : P
Also Solstice has mentioned JJ once this game.
I'm very frustrated in regards to you JJ. I feel like the combination of you suspecting me for bad reasons and misreading you in Les Mis is really fucking with me. I think the wise thing is to wait and see a bit.
I definitely need to read gumshoe. I haven't had time to look hard at his filter after a feel based town read, so he's a bit of a blindspot for me.
Basicaly gives JJ the benefit of the doubt. Then pretty much agrees with him about me? Wierd.
Aside from Stutters, I'm getting suspicious of JarJar because meta.
In Les Mis, as scum, he has a laser focus on BH
In one of his newb games, as scum, he has a laser focus on jkirby.
In Roulette, as town, he pushes Oats, but also expresses suspicions towards WoS and Sentinel.
In another newb game, as town, he goes after TheRavensName, and also Frogron almost equally.
Links to these games are in this spoiler, have a look:
+ Show Spoiler +
I'm typically not a fan of including newb games in a meta argument, but it's definitely enough to make me nervous of JarJar.
I want to know who is scum outside of me, JarJar, and why.
Basically says the best argument here against Jar Jar is meta... Which is wrong.
AND THATS IT.
Solstice has not mentioned Jar Jar for the last 60 percent of the game.
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I have three suspects Marv. My goal now is to prove a connection between two of them. I pretty much have. Stutters is the odd man out.
Also brain exercice!
Jar Jar, why are Stutters and Solstice scum.
Solstice why are Jar and Stutters scum.
Stutters you made your point : P your free to go.
Where are Solstice and Jar Jar anyways / : hope they havent given up that easy.
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FUCK YEAH. I AM RIGHT ABOUT ALL THE THINGS ALL THE TIME.
sorry Lazer ) :
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EPT
