[T] Nuclear Winter Mafia

On July 10 2013 05:46 MajuGarzett wrote:
I would also be down for a lynch on VA for the reasons I gave earlier as well austin's case. I don't suspect FirmToufu so that's not a problem for me. FirmTofu may have been against DI's lynch but that lynch did move pretty fast so I think that action is caution rather than trying to save his scum buddy. FT has also done a good amount of analysis.

Rayn asked me for some specific reads so here:

WoS nuke redirect I don't find scummy because if he was scum the only reason for a redirect would be to gain credit which could only be done by redirecting the nuke to scum.Also, I really doubt that he would save a scum buddy like that as if one of them dies the other is sure to be caught. WoS was also accepted that Rayn's nuke claim didn't make sense for scum quite early. I think if WoS was scum he would have tried to pressure Rayn a bit more. So WoS is probably town.

MZ is town, I don't have any evidence to the contrary and neither does anyone else I've seen.

I still suspect Onegu. Looking at his filter the only read he's given is repeating Xata is 100% town. He's said this 3 times so far and uses it as an excuse to sheep.

Rayn's claim doesn't make sense for scum so I don't suspect him.

Best lynch targets are VA, Onegu, and DI.

On July 08 2013 16:40 FirmTofu wrote:
Sorry I took so long. I got burned out from reading the thread and having to update my reads based on incoming information so I took a long break from the thread.

I've completed nearly all my player profiles and am ready to give geript my top three scumreads.

VayneAuthority:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=418049&currentpage=17#329
Unjustified reason to vote someone. It could be a poke, but it remains unclear.

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=418049&currentpage=25#495
Advocates lynching for information. Acknowledges that he could flip town. A town would push their lynch under the assumption that they were scum.
Starting to focus on what will happen post-flip indicating that he doesn't want to take the heat on a town flip.

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=418049&currentpage=28#554
Highlighting play that strikes him as PR. Why would town do this?

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=418049&currentpage=29#568
Accuses Caucasian, who seems like an easy target considering he only has one post and was drunk.

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=418049&currentpage=34#669
Adds Dandel to the list of lynch targets.

WaveOfShadow:
His fluff extends a bit too far into the day. Most of his posts are non-contributing/restating what has already been said.

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=418049&currentpage=19#375
Refers to "town players" as an entity that he is not a part of. Very scummy.

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=418049&currentpage=20#383
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=418049&currentpage=20#392
Voices his opinion of Johnny based on a misinterpretation of his post, then waits for someone else to vote him before hopping on the wagon.

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=418049&currentpage=24#464
Defensive post. Why is he so worried about a wagon on him if the people voting him have a bad case against him? He should be pursuing his reads, not wasting time defending himself from a "weak" wagon.

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=418049&currentpage=25#482
Seems to understand scum methodology and could be trying to WIFOM us with his play.

I haven't read many of his newer posts, so I will update my read of him as I continue reading.

Nirvana.Gabo:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=418049&currentpage=29#566
Idiotic reason to vote Onegu. Looking for reasons to vote, instead of looking for actual scumslips. Could be a scumbuddy defense of a teammate in Chez. We will need to see the flip to know for sure.

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=418049&currentpage=29#576
Mistaking newbieness for scum play. Seems to be a deliberate ploy to accuse Onegu of something that isn't there.

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=418049&currentpage=31#619
Has a town read on Ace. Convenient. Reiterating what many others have already stated.

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I would like to pursue either a Vayne or Nirvana lynch, but would be willing to defer to a lynch of WoS. First, I need to read further into the thread to see whether he has redeemed himself or not.

For now,
Vote ##: VayneAuthority

On July 08 2013 17:38 FirmTofu wrote:

Holy banana-butthole, did anyone catch this?

Why would Vayne...
1) ...automatically believe Chez when Chez explains what his role is.
2) ...confirm Chez as a town-read because Chez explained his role mechanics.
3) ...consider an "interesting mechanic" to be "content"

We need to lynch this guy ASAP.

On July 09 2013 04:47 FirmTofu wrote:
Can we look at Vayne please? He still has not responded to my accusations.

Link 1
Link 2

On July 09 2013 05:36 FirmTofu wrote:
I just voted ON because the case against him is far better than the one against Dandel and unfortunately, no one is looking at VA seriously.

On July 09 2013 06:42 FirmTofu wrote:

I'd rather stick to my guns this time around. Let's have a discussion and maybe you can convince me in the next 20 minutes.

On July 10 2013 07:44 FirmTofu wrote:
Alright, I'm back and rearing to post. My top 3 scum reads are:
jampidampi
Ace
VayneAuthority

Gonna make a post explaining why in just a bit.

On July 10 2013 09:58 FirmTofu wrote:

Ace and Vayne. I've already talked in length about VA, so I won't bore you again.

As for Ace, I might make a post on him somewhere down the line, but for now, I would like to focus on jampidampi whom I consider to be the best lynch target today.

On July 11 2013 12:25 FirmTofu wrote:

Before I get back to reading the thread, I would like to address this scummy post.

I have numbered and bolded the relevant statements so it is easier for you to see.
(1) He claims I am null to him.
(2) He says that I somehow look bad if maju flips scum, implying that his death would tell something about me.
(3) In his explanation of why, he fails to speak about anything that relates Maju to me and says I am scummy based on points that should have been addressed in (1) itself.

He effectively contradicted himself within his own post while simultaneously failing to justify why I would appear scummy if maju flips scum.

Thank you Vayne, for further justifying my scum read on you.

On July 11 2013 18:08 Koshi wrote:

I don't really understand this post FirmTofu. You have been targeting Vayne the entire game, you even bickered with him to the point that Vayne doesn't want to talk to you, and now you want to target jampi over Vayne? That's kinda strange. Also, nobody is suspecting jampi at all, it's just an inactive kill. Which is never bad but meh...

That being said, I became a Vayne fan over night. He had a clean fight with FirmTofu. I don't think that they are both on scumteam. I did like the read that FirmTofu did on Vayne though, that was indeed a contradicting post from Vayne. But I don't understand why FirmTofu is so against Vayne, but then strongarms a guy that is probably going to get lynched into shooting his nuke on Jampi...


Then about my lynch target. I don't really have a target yet, I think that if both XigXag (who hasn't posted yet?) and Maju turn out to be town, then [UoN]Sentinel is 100% scum that just decided to yolo his way in this game and shoot 2 people. Kinda obvious but I don't got anything else concrete. I am just going to wait till 2 hours before deadline and then decide between the 2 players with the highest vote count and vote on one of them and give my reasoning.

On July 12 2013 03:58 geript wrote:

Because I'm going to shoot it down. Here's the full situation with Jampi:

1. He's town and the nuke lands. Yay he's town!!! However, we have an infinite vig or something akin to it, but it's in the hands of a lurky bad player. That's bad news bears.
2. He's town and I shoot the nuke down. Yay he's town!!! But we don't have to deal with him gaining powers.
3. He's scum and the nuke lands. YAY he fake claimed and got shot in the face!!!!
4. He's scum and the nuke lands but makes him awesome. BOOOOH we've just superpowered scum.
5. He's scum and the gets shot down. We don't know he's scum, but he's easily lynchable and don't superpower him.

Of the situations where the nuke lands, only 1 is good for us and I don't think Jampi was fake claiming. Of the situations where the nuke doesn't land, all of them are better for us. Pretty simple really.

And yes, I'm assuming all nukes are radiation nukes.

As a matter of fact:
##defend jampidampi

Let's get a lynch contest going.

On July 08 2013 14:09 geript wrote:
Ok so here's a few very important lists. Town if you have a nuke and you absolutely have to fire it, then you need to fire it at one of the following people (my personal preferences are in red):
Dandel Ion (if he doesn't post again)
ghost_403
Oatsmaster (if he continues to not do anything)
Stutters695
Z-Boson
Abenson
MajuGarzett
strongandbig
TanGeng
Caucasianasian
jampidampi
Nirvana.Gabo

If you're really daring, you can also fire it at these people, but I expect these guys to be given a day 1 pass:
Austinmcc
Dandel Ion (if he actually posts something worthwhile)
Oatsmaster (if he actually decides to play)
FirmTofu

As everyone will notice there are 14 fucking different names on this carpet bombing list out of 27 players and at least 6 of which are complete fucking lurkers. And then on top if it there's Chezinu who we need to figure out what we're going to do with as Ace has pointed out. So you guys need to get your asses in high gear to do your jobs as a townie because not all of those guys can be scum. I understand that this is a theme game and it's got nukes. Plus it's always fun to win with style, but it's WAAAY more fun to win than to lose with style. And it's even worse to lose because you played a game where half the players are dead weight.

On July 09 2013 04:20 Z-BosoN wrote:


wait wait, I can totally do austin

Anyone else?

On July 09 2013 04:22 Z-BosoN wrote:


It seems that people are willing to policy lynch. If it's a policy lynch, I would rather CA, because I think he's a better choice, because I agree with gerupt (see my filter, I commented on this earlier).

On July 13 2013 11:28 Z-BosoN wrote:
Geript is not getting lynched, WoS. Who else would you want to lynch?

On July 12 2013 09:44 Z-BosoN wrote:

Z-BosoN's Digest

All right, I'll take this time to go over some things that I feel are important.

First of all, I want to apologize for playing like shit. I was a bit busy the last few days and am a bit drowned by the amount of stuff I have to read here, so I was mostly posting lazily, going with gut feelings instead of actually doing any sort of analysis. I seek to correct that.

Secondly, I am completely unsatisfied with my reads. I feel like they are all shitty and wrong. My scumreads don't really make sense. This is just a vague outline of some of the players that I have notes on atm. I decided to post this anyways in the name of discussion.

Even though I hate this fucking text to my core, I hope you guys read it still.

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First of all, let me establish who I'm confident is town:


Xatalos - duh

Oatsmaster - I find it hard for him to claim and save MZ, being scum. Seems chill in his posts.

[Uon]Sentinel - Unless it's some ploy to nuke your afk buddy to gain towncred, I'm considering him town for now.

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People who I think may be townie, but not too sure:


FirmTofu - Seems to be trying to figure things out. Despite being wrong, made a fair case on jampidampi. Not worrying about him too much.

Onegu - his posts feel genuine. He posted somewhere that he "knows that Xatalos is 100% town". This is pretty scary for a beginner in mafia to post, I think.

WaveOfShadow - He claimed, but I dunno. His activity level kinda dropped later on once people started laying off of him, but some of his posts seem really genuine as well. Should be left alone for now I think.

johnnywup - Originally I thought him scummy, but after rereading his filter, his posts feel pretty genuine. Also, at one point, he posted "someone claim please" at a timing that would just feel awkward for scum. I dunno. Intuition and general feeling aside, judging from his contributions and his general posts, I would totally view him as scum, however, he has done very little in terms of scumhunting. Who knows.

Alakaslam - He picks on me to better the quality of my posting, yet his own quality of posting is crap. He is very irreverent and useless in his posts. However much I don't like his play, he doesn't seem as scummy as I thought earlier, upon rereading his filter. Ugh, again, my brain wants to paint him black.

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And now a more shady region, where I have as null:

Geript - Right now I have him as either town or a pretty good scum. As I was catching up to the thread and making my notes, he seemed to strike on some details in certain posts that were very fair. He started the game with a strong presence, looking quite townie. Later on, however, his play dived into a much weaker version of the initial geript.

The post he made right after day1 lynches caught my attention



This pretty much screams defense to me, and I view this post as pretty unnatural. Just like eminem in 8-mile, he's dissing himself so people won't use that against him later on. This has been amplified now that we know that Dandel was in fact scum.

Another thing that annoyed me is him shooting down jampidampi nuke. So unnatural.. and I didn't find his explanation the least bit reasonable. Nevertheless, the townie thing to do would be to verify if people agreed with the nuke and whatnot, but ended up saving us a lynch.

The change of attitude towards his lynch choice vs. the lynch choice of others in day two was pretty different from that same thing in day one. While in day one he thought DL was a mislynch, and tried as hard as he could to sway votes away from DL, in day two he decided to go to jampi fairly easily, not putting muhc of a fight.

However, his activity is fairly high and shooting the nuke down just like that is calling attention to himself as scum. So yea, townie, or good scum. I don't want to lynch him tomorrow, so let him be for now. Don't even know why I decided to share my feelings here.

austinmcc: Had a fairly bad start, and there are some things in his filter that would still make me suspicious like hell. I could go on about some of that, but his general activity seems to have me disinterested, for now. Rayne had a good point on him, though:



EDIT: now that I see that austin has high activity levels as scum as well, this prompts me to paint him red as well. More on him later I guess.

Ace: Spends a ton of time speculating. Most of his activity is rather useless and he doesn't seem to try to take a dominant spot amongst town. He loves to talk about peoples plans, and how this play and that play is stupid or not (here I refer to Rayne's play and Geript's play).

However, one thing in a scum-ace scenario kind of troubles me. Ace spent a bucketfuck of time discussing and arguing how rayne's plan was necessarily scum-favored and that he was scum because of it, etc. This seems like a tedious thing to pursue if you are scum, like seriously. Normally I'd paint him green because of it, but I've heard that his scum-play is pretty good, so I'll keep him here in this mosh pit.

-------------

I decided to go at length on these three players because I want to see if people agree with my say on them or not. I wanna still puzzle myself on the rest of the players to see if I can find anything else of value. The rest of the peoples I didn't add also go in this region.

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And now, towards my current shitlist.

VayneAuthority - this post immediately put him on my watch-list:



This seems to be a pointless post that ponders the different scenarios and draws no real conclusion from it.

The main argument I have against him is how he claims he was "pretty confident" that rayne was town. Vayne mentioend afterwards that rayne does that type of shit as town. Here is his post after rayne's flip:



Now, as we can easily deduce, Vayne was pretty damn confident that rayn was town. As you all remember, there was a huge shitfest discussing whether or not the rayn nuke claim made him scum or not. Now, I ask you, as a townie who feels strongly about a dude you've played with being townie, what do you do?

a) Defend him. Explain how this is something a town rayn would totally do (VA gave me this explanation later on).
b) Shove off the discussion expressing how you are fed up with it.

The difference is subtle, but if you look at the three posts VA made during the whole discussion:







Here you see a different, incompatible story. From the three posts above, he thinks rayn is town, and wants to stop the discussion because it is clogging up the thread. Not because he thinks rayn is town or whatever. He doesn't even mention that rayn normally does that type of stuff as town.

Please read the interaction which starts here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=418049&currentpage=116#2312

And let me know what you think (right now I'm not sure if I'm nitpicking or if I stumbled upon the holy grail of finding Vayne scum)

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Next guy I want to point out is Kosh. Not much to say on him, but he comes into the thread fairly well, with a list describing some of the players and not really drawing too many conclusions. He complains the thread is slowing down:



Letting us know that he likes action and shit. Goes on to describe some more of the players, putting his scum vote on tofu. He makes a rather weak case against tofu that's entirely based on the fact that tofu didn't approve VA getting shot down. Ok, he might be on to something, I still have to review tofu, but he doesn't seem to push his reads at all. Makes a weak non-committing statement:



When town is active on the maju vs jampi debate (thread = sped up), he makes spectator-like comments regarding the game, instead of jumping in on the discussion:





I dunno, I kinda feel he's scum.

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Anyways, give thoughts if you will.