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[T] Nuclear Winter Mafia - Page 16

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Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
July 11 2013 21:30 GMT
#2432
On July 12 2013 06:27 jampidampi wrote:
scumreads already mentioned, Xatalos, geript, Ace, Onegu and CaucasianAsian (weak read) are town. haven't have time to check austin, can't make sense from johnny, vayne or chezinu, rest pretty much null


Any reasonings behind any of your reads? It's not hard for scum to just pull some "reads" out of thin air.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
July 11 2013 21:37 GMT
#2442
One point in favor of lynching jampidampi is that I like the people on jampidampi's wagon a lot more (not confident in Z-Boson but the rest feel townish). MajuGarzett's wagon has a lot of shady people (VA, Sentinel (Abenson), Jampidampi, Ace...).
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
July 11 2013 21:39 GMT
#2445
Nevermind, VA voted for jampidampi. Hmm..
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
July 11 2013 21:41 GMT
#2450
VA, how were you suddenly convinced on jampidampi? Seems like some meta reason but.... It's just sudden.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
July 11 2013 21:42 GMT
#2451
On July 12 2013 06:40 FirmTofu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 12 2013 06:39 Xatalos wrote:
Nevermind, VA voted for jampidampi. Hmm..

What do you think our best course of action would be if jampi flips town?


Then I'm feeling a nuke on MajuGarzett.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
July 11 2013 21:52 GMT
#2467
On July 12 2013 06:51 Ace wrote:
ok now activity picks up


Your vote is on MajuGarzett. Do you think he's more likely scum than jampidampi?
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
July 11 2013 21:57 GMT
#2478
On July 12 2013 06:55 Ace wrote:
yes, and this recent activity has me suspicious. However, this same thing happened during the DI/ON lynch and DI escaped. So I'll switch. Besides, I always have the option to nuke MG.

##unvote


If jampidampi flips town, please do nuke MajuGarzett (at night preferably). If jampidampi flips scum, nuke someone else.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
July 11 2013 21:57 GMT
#2479
Lol what the hell Stutters695?
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
July 11 2013 21:59 GMT
#2485
On July 12 2013 06:58 geript wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 12 2013 06:58 FirmTofu wrote:
On July 12 2013 06:57 Xatalos wrote:
On July 12 2013 06:55 Ace wrote:
yes, and this recent activity has me suspicious. However, this same thing happened during the DI/ON lynch and DI escaped. So I'll switch. Besides, I always have the option to nuke MG.

##unvote


If jampidampi flips town, please do nuke MajuGarzett (at night preferably). If jampidampi flips scum, nuke someone else.

But don't nuke someone else without consulting us first. (looks at geript)

Hey, I haven't nuked anyone without consulting anyone...


Haha.......
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
July 11 2013 22:03 GMT
#2492
Hmmm. Well, luckily DI/XigXag was scum. Ace, you should nuke at night if you're town or scum will kill you certainly. MajuGarzett is the prime option.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
July 11 2013 22:05 GMT
#2496
Btw XigXag was just about to produce his first nuke so luckily he died. This makes me feel better about Sentinel.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
July 11 2013 22:11 GMT
#2505
On July 12 2013 07:04 FirmTofu wrote:
This implicates me heavily. I expect a lot of heat from town. Bring it. I'm glad we finally found some scum, phew.


Not necessarily. I'm in the same boat as you, pushing jampidampi until the ugly truth. I'm more suspicious of those who just voted somewhere without being truly involved in it all.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
July 11 2013 22:14 GMT
#2509
On July 12 2013 07:12 VayneAuthority wrote:
OriginalName (11): austinmcc, Chezinu, raynpelikoneet, Dandel Ion, Xatalos, FirmTofu,
Alakaslam, geript, ghost_403, Chezinu, geript, TanGeng, gumshoe, johnnywup, Onegu

nuke into that.


[image loading]
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
July 11 2013 22:17 GMT
#2514
On July 12 2013 07:09 Ace wrote:
Yea I'll nuke tonight. Also drop something before I possibly die.

@vayne: not for the DI lynch, but people grouping you with maju and jampi. They could easily be wrong so we'll see how this plays out.


I'm not too sure on VayneAuthority atm. Anyways it would be best to nuke MajuGarzett for much the same reasons as DI/XigXag was a good nuke: everyone sees him as scummy, yet he's very inactive, so D3 might turn out as just everyone voting for MajuGarzett (reducing the overall activity and interesting events during the day).
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
July 11 2013 22:20 GMT
#2521
I also think that strongandbig is the most likely fakeclaimer among us Immune Ones at the moment.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
July 11 2013 22:30 GMT
#2532
I'm going to sleep now but final words for Ace:

Just nuke MajuGarzett. It's not just the fact of him being scummy (especially after jampidampi's flip), but maybe equally important is how productive D3 will be. If MajuGarzett lives, (most) everyone will just vote for him and D3's activity, quality contributions, arguments, effort put in by various players..... Everything pro-town will be severy reduced. The same might have well happened during D2 if XigXag hadn't been nuked by Sentinel. We might have just all agreed to vote for XigXag in the end, destroying all the great activity we had with the jampidampi/MajuGarzett/VayneAuthority arguments. If there isn't one scummy player on whom everyone agrees on, it becomes much, much harder for scum to sheep/bus and townies will be more easily distinguished from scum.

Just do it!
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
July 12 2013 06:07 GMT
#2579
Hihi everyone.

I'm starting to feel that I die tonight, with everyone chanting my über-townishness. The only reason I see for my survival is that my power is relatively useless. But if there are 2 NK's again, the situation looks grim for me.

Currently I'm mostly angry at myself for already pushing two mislynches (worse still, one away from a confirmed scum and one away from a likely scum). I never believed I'd say this, but maybe people should listen to Ace more. He's been likely correct about two lynches already and I doubt he'd be bussing this ruthlessly as scum. Also, his posts after being nuked were pretty townish.

With that said, I have reached a new conclusion on who the remaining 4 scum probably are (if it's a normal setup and around 20% of the players are scum). I also have an idea on who might be the 3rd party (likely an SK-type role but with nukes instead of NK's). And I'm pretty confident in my townreads at the moment. I'm considering if I should
A) save everything for right before the nightpost to make scum's targeting harder
B) post before that to encourage more discussion and help polish my reads / answer questions (since I'm likely dead now anyways)

I can't really post for a bit (just typing on my phone hastily atm), but I think I could finish my "last will" several hours before the deadline. Opinions?
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
July 12 2013 08:41 GMT
#2584
Just a quick note that I received a nuke from someone (appears to be a regular nuke). Thanks to whoever gave it. I'll comment more a bit later.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
July 12 2013 09:59 GMT
#2586
SHIT. Apparently one of the cohosts messed up and I didn't get the nuke yet. Now I'm 100% dead, but had to say this (so that Ace wouldn't nuke someone else than MajuGarzett). Be back later.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
July 12 2013 11:36 GMT
#2594
On July 12 2013 20:05 Onegu wrote:
Xata visit someone tonight dont forget, I am leaning toward geript, firm tofu, MG or WoS.


I doubt it's gonna achieve anything, but I think I'm gonna visit Stutters695 just in case (under the assumption that Ace nukes MajuGarzett). Stutters is the kind of player that has a decent chance of flipping scum, but even if he's town, he's a super-easy mislynch wagon that scum would gladly see happen. It would also be a waste of a day to lynch someone like him (zero info to be gained and a whole day wasted). Thus he is an optimal KP target even while a sub-optimal lynch target.


On July 12 2013 16:19 FirmTofu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 12 2013 15:07 Xatalos wrote:
Hihi everyone.

I'm starting to feel that I die tonight, with everyone chanting my über-townishness. The only reason I see for my survival is that my power is relatively useless. But if there are 2 NK's again, the situation looks grim for me.

Currently I'm mostly angry at myself for already pushing two mislynches (worse still, one away from a confirmed scum and one away from a likely scum). I never believed I'd say this, but maybe people should listen to Ace more. He's been likely correct about two lynches already and I doubt he'd be bussing this ruthlessly as scum. Also, his posts after being nuked were pretty townish.

With that said, I have reached a new conclusion on who the remaining 4 scum probably are (if it's a normal setup and around 20% of the players are scum). I also have an idea on who might be the 3rd party (likely an SK-type role but with nukes instead of NK's). And I'm pretty confident in my townreads at the moment. I'm considering if I should
A) save everything for right before the nightpost to make scum's targeting harder
B) post before that to encourage more discussion and help polish my reads / answer questions (since I'm likely dead now anyways)

I can't really post for a bit (just typing on my phone hastily atm), but I think I could finish my "last will" several hours before the deadline. Opinions?

I am in the same position as you Xatalos(except I backed off the ON lynch at the last second).

I don't know why everyone thinks you and me are town, honestly. I think you are town because you mirror my behavior and you probably think the same of me for the same reason. There is little reason why any rational observer should think the same.

As for the decision you need to make...
I want you to save your scumreads for the time right before the nightpost, HOWEVER, I don't think we should stop discussing reads altogether. That would only serve to help scum.

Therefore, I have a few questions for you.

1) We currently have Alakaslam claiming Russian Technician. We have lost a town sided North-Korean Technician and we have killed a scum sided North-Korean Technician. Do you doubt the veracity of Alakaslam's claim at all based on this new information?

2) We have Onegu/SnB/You all claiming The Immune One. You are in a very unique position to handle this issue because you are 100% certain about your own alignment. Therefore, your opinion on the matter is on critical importance. You have already stated that you think SnB is the most likely to be scum in the group claim. However, Onegu has voted on both mislynches and SnB voted to lynch Dandel who flipped scum. Are you willing to hold your stance based on this contradictory information?

3) Who would be your best vigi target if you had a nuke?


1) It certainly puts some new doubt on Alakaslam, but he still reads town to me. Just his carefree and spontaneous posting style alone screams town at me. His role breadcrumbing is now closer to null, although still slightly townish (basically limiting his own options to lie in the future to benefit town).

2) Onegu's roleclaim felt very sincere and "breadcrumbed" in a natural way that's not easy to fake. He still might be a scum Immune One though. S&b voting for DI looks good for him, but remember that DI has begged to be bussed in the past as scum. I'd still say Onegu is town and s&b scum. Onegu's actions (especially considering his role) haven't felt planned while s&b's posts have felt more constructed and his claim came at an unnatural timing (just buying some towncred with incoming nukes in mind?).

3) MajuGarzett. Then Stutters695 probably, if MajuGarzett was already nuked.

Also LOL @ "Xatalos has been wrong about everything" :D At least I was right about rayn while Ace claimed he was a liar and a scum... And we'll see if I'm right or wrong about my latest reads.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
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