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[T] Nuclear Winter Mafia - Page 15

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Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
July 11 2013 19:44 GMT
#2342
On July 12 2013 04:41 geript wrote:
@Xatalos... so you're trying to say that I'm bad for shooting down the nuke that saves Maju because it forced us to vote for Jampi instead of Maju? You agree that both aren't likely scum correct?


Read this:

On July 12 2013 03:44 Xatalos wrote:
I just had a great idea.

Let's see the situation again:

Option 1
MajuGarzett
VayneAuthority
jampidampi

Option 2
MajuGarzett
VayneAuthority
jampidampi

Option 3
MajuGarzett
VayneAuthority
jampidampi

Option 4
MajuGarzett
VayneAuthority
jampidampi

If we kill MajuGarzett and jampidampi, VayneAuthority is still somewhat likely a question mark after the flips. If MajuGarzett flips green and jampidampi flips red, it's pretty hard to say if VayneAuthority is town or scum. I think both of them flipping green is pretty unlikely, so likely only if MajuGarzett flips red and jampidampi flips green do we know that VayneAuthority is likely town.

There's an easy solution to this however. If we lynch VayneAuthority and let the nuke on jampidampi land, we will almost certainly know MajuGarzett's alignment. If there are 1-2 scum among VayneAuthority and jampidampi, MajuGarzett is most likely town. If there are no scum among VayneAuthority and jampidampi, MajuGarzett is most likely scum. Then Ace (or someone else) can just nuke the crap out of him after the daypost.

I'm starting to get pretty confident that there is at least one scum among VayneAuthority and jampidampi though. Especially jampidampi is looking suspicious with randomly claiming the already-revealed Immune One role PM after he was nuked. There are tons of that particular role around, it seems, and jampidampi is the most scummy of these claims (-> the most likely one to have fakeclaimed - or just be a scum Immune One).

So basically:
1) There's most likely at least 1 scum among VayneAuthority and jampidampi.
2) If that's the case, then MajuGarzett is most likely town.
3) Even if both VayneAuthority and jampidampi are town (unlikely), we can just nuke MajuGarzett since he's most likely scum in that case.
4) If we lynch MajuGarzett instead of VayneAuthority, we will likely have no idea about VayneAuthority's alignment after the flips and worse still, we have a higher risk of mislynching.

With that said:

##Unvote
##Vote VayneAuthority


We should have killed VA+jampidampi (getting at least 1 scum very likely, and as a bonus we would know MajuGarzett's alignment with good probability).
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
July 11 2013 19:48 GMT
#2344
Now we should lynch jampidampi IMO. Seems like our best bet to lynch scum out of these 3 (and his red flip would somewhat clear MajuGarzett to make our jobs easier). I also want to see if jampidampi's claim was true or not.
1) To get a better read on strongandbig
2) there's a small chance that jampidampi and MG are scum together and MG shot a Radiation nuke at jampidampi, if the claim was true then that's a possibility
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
July 11 2013 20:14 GMT
#2361
On July 12 2013 05:12 geript wrote:
Ok. So Maju's filter actually has some bits of trying to analyze and stuff. Jampi's only analysis is pretty much confined to the Rayn stuff which is pretty worthless. Jampi's response to the nuke is definitely not towny, but it's about as much as I would expect from a player like Jampi or IamP. The point is though that Maju literally was at no point trying to decide who to nuke. There's nothing there which even points to that. He doesn't even want to "take credit" for his nuke in getting others opinions almost at the last second. That doesn't add up.


This post is a bit confusing. What's your conclusion? Lynch MajuGarzett or jampidampi?
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
July 11 2013 20:15 GMT
#2364
On July 12 2013 05:12 Z-BosoN wrote:
snb what is your current opinion on austin?


Wtf has austin to do this impending lynch?
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
July 11 2013 20:15 GMT
#2365
EBWOP *with
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
July 11 2013 20:18 GMT
#2367
Z-Boson why are you even discussing austin's alignment now? Who do you want to lynch atm (jampidampi, VA, MG)?
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
July 11 2013 20:22 GMT
#2369
On July 12 2013 05:21 geript wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 12 2013 05:18 geript wrote:
On July 12 2013 05:15 austinmcc wrote:
On July 12 2013 05:12 geript wrote:
Ok. So Maju's filter actually has some bits of trying to analyze and stuff. Jampi's only analysis is pretty much confined to the Rayn stuff which is pretty worthless. Jampi's response to the nuke is definitely not towny, but it's about as much as I would expect from a player like Jampi or IamP. The point is though that Maju literally was at no point trying to decide who to nuke. There's nothing there which even points to that. He doesn't even want to "take credit" for his nuke in getting others opinions almost at the last second. That doesn't add up.
The timing is butt. But...he was the leading lynch candidate, and had picked up 3 votes within the last chunk.

If he thinks he's actually going to die, and has a nuke, the TOWNIE thing to do is to go "holy balls I have 2 hours town who should I fire this at." The SCUMMY thing to do is fire at whoever he'd like, a strong townie, given that he thinks he's going to die.

Except I think all of this is kind of blown apart by the fact we had multiple missile defense claims so scum can't obvi-nuke someone with time left in day and expect it to work just fine.

I dunno, gut read is that asking frigging town for where to send a nuke is NOT scummy behavior. Not saying he had a nuke earlier is, but...town controlling things is generally in town's favor.

Go look at his filter. He claimed that it was unstable and that's why he fired it.

NM I can't fucking read


That's become clear in the recent hours.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
July 11 2013 20:27 GMT
#2374
On July 12 2013 05:25 Z-BosoN wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 12 2013 05:15 Xatalos wrote:
On July 12 2013 05:12 Z-BosoN wrote:
snb what is your current opinion on austin?


Wtf has austin to do this impending lynch?


Oh, didn't realize deadline was so soon, I'm still @ page 92 and something interested me between SnB and austin. Gimme a sec


Vote for jampidampi, you'll get cookies.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
July 11 2013 20:32 GMT
#2377
On July 12 2013 05:29 austinmcc wrote:
Or maybe we just get people to vote for legitimate reasons and then analyze their votes and reasons.

geript, icons next to names are just...e-peen. They denote length and girth.


You live in a utopia, my friend.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
July 11 2013 20:37 GMT
#2381
On July 12 2013 05:34 Koshi wrote:
Ok this is something really stupid that I just read, but maybe it is genius.
Did the host make an English mistake by saying a Immune target?

Xatalos, you claim to also be immune. Is it spelled correctly in your role pm?

Show nested quote +
On July 11 2013 20:33 jampidampi wrote:
Why the fuck was I nuked? Just for not being here? Have yet to read the thread, but I'm not sure if catching up at this point is even worth it. Might as well claim right now.

You are a Immune One! You have no special powers other than that Radiation nukes do not harm you, but do infect you. Each night, you may choose to visit a player. If you are infected with radiation, it will spread to them. You will not be informed if you are infected. Once infected, your infection will last the entire game.

So you better hope that Maju's nuke was a radiation nuke.


Lol no. Someone messed up.

You are a Immune One! You have no special powers other than that Radiation nukes do not harm you, but do infect you. Each night, you may choose to visit a player. If you are infected with radiation, it will spread to them. You will not be informed if you are infected. Once infected, your infection will last the entire game.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
July 11 2013 20:40 GMT
#2384
Right now it's 7-4 in favor of MajuGarzett I think. Just need a couple to switch over and jampidampi is done for.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
July 11 2013 21:03 GMT
#2393
On July 12 2013 05:41 geript wrote:
ok so Xat, let's talk about maju vs jampi.

Maju:
1. Both town/scum reasoning for launching nuke neutral
2. Both town/scum reasoning for nuke target (seeking approval for if it will land vs confirming for a solid target) neutral
3. Original points for voting Onegu are super weak scummy
4. Continues to attack Onegu for thinking Chezinu scum based on reasoning that quite possibly makes Chezinue scum -- makes no sense as town scummy
5. continued tunneling without any sort of progression on the read scummy
6. Out of the nowhere suspicion on Jampi scummy

Xat would you agree with this analysis of his filter?


2. Not sure what you mean here (?)
3. True, but I can't say that my original points against johnnywup were good either (pretty null IMO, slightly scummy at most)
4. I agree his stance on Onegu/Chezinu seems weird - first votes Onegu for pressure voting Chezinu, then starts saying that Chezinu hasn't yet given real answers (weird, maybe scummy)
5. Yeah can't say that he feels like figuring new stuff out this game (scummy)
6. Actually he never said he suspected jampidampi, he just obeyed what people (FT, me etc.) said - where did you get that he suddenly suspected jampidampi? (?)
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
July 11 2013 21:04 GMT
#2395
Sigh, both feel like scum. But only one can be scum.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
July 11 2013 21:05 GMT
#2400
On July 12 2013 06:00 Z-BosoN wrote:
Allrighty, cookie it is
##vote jampidampi


Here you go.

[image loading]
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
July 11 2013 21:10 GMT
#2408
On July 12 2013 06:05 Z-BosoN wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 12 2013 06:04 Xatalos wrote:
Sigh, both feel like scum. But only one can be scum.


Why can only one be scum??


Anything is possible in the end, but I doubt scum MajuGarzett would have nuked scum jampidampi or that scum jampidampi would go for the MajuGarzett lynch. The pretty even vote spread also improves the chances of one being scum.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
July 11 2013 21:12 GMT
#2412
On July 12 2013 06:10 geript wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 12 2013 06:03 Xatalos wrote:
On July 12 2013 05:41 geript wrote:
ok so Xat, let's talk about maju vs jampi.

Maju:
1. Both town/scum reasoning for launching nuke neutral
2. Both town/scum reasoning for nuke target (seeking approval for if it will land vs confirming for a solid target) neutral
3. Original points for voting Onegu are super weak scummy
4. Continues to attack Onegu for thinking Chezinu scum based on reasoning that quite possibly makes Chezinue scum -- makes no sense as town scummy
5. continued tunneling without any sort of progression on the read scummy
6. Out of the nowhere suspicion on Jampi scummy

Xat would you agree with this analysis of his filter?


2. Not sure what you mean here (?)
3. True, but I can't say that my original points against johnnywup were good either (pretty null IMO, slightly scummy at most)
4. I agree his stance on Onegu/Chezinu seems weird - first votes Onegu for pressure voting Chezinu, then starts saying that Chezinu hasn't yet given real answers (weird, maybe scummy)
5. Yeah can't say that he feels like figuring new stuff out this game (scummy)
6. Actually he never said he suspected jampidampi, he just obeyed what people (FT, me etc.) said - where did you get that he suddenly suspected jampidampi? (?)

@6 You don't fire a nuke at someone who you think is town.


Unless you're scum I guess
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
July 11 2013 21:16 GMT
#2414
On July 12 2013 06:14 FirmTofu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 12 2013 06:10 geript wrote:
On July 12 2013 06:03 Xatalos wrote:
On July 12 2013 05:41 geript wrote:
ok so Xat, let's talk about maju vs jampi.

Maju:
1. Both town/scum reasoning for launching nuke neutral
2. Both town/scum reasoning for nuke target (seeking approval for if it will land vs confirming for a solid target) neutral
3. Original points for voting Onegu are super weak scummy
4. Continues to attack Onegu for thinking Chezinu scum based on reasoning that quite possibly makes Chezinue scum -- makes no sense as town scummy
5. continued tunneling without any sort of progression on the read scummy
6. Out of the nowhere suspicion on Jampi scummy

Xat would you agree with this analysis of his filter?


2. Not sure what you mean here (?)
3. True, but I can't say that my original points against johnnywup were good either (pretty null IMO, slightly scummy at most)
4. I agree his stance on Onegu/Chezinu seems weird - first votes Onegu for pressure voting Chezinu, then starts saying that Chezinu hasn't yet given real answers (weird, maybe scummy)
5. Yeah can't say that he feels like figuring new stuff out this game (scummy)
6. Actually he never said he suspected jampidampi, he just obeyed what people (FT, me etc.) said - where did you get that he suddenly suspected jampidampi? (?)

@6 You don't fire a nuke at someone who you think is town.

Unless all nukes are radiation nukes and you are firing at an Immune One.

Haha jk geript


Lol
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
July 11 2013 21:23 GMT
#2422
So it's 7-6 and MajuGarzett is getting lynched. Honestly all I know is that almost certainly one of them is scum and one is not. Either one could be scum at this point. jampidampi, what are your scumreads? Townreads?
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
July 11 2013 21:25 GMT
#2423
If we end up lynching MajuGarzett and he flips town, I'm going to rage so hard at geript.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
July 11 2013 21:27 GMT
#2429
On July 12 2013 06:26 geript wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 12 2013 06:25 Xatalos wrote:
If we end up lynching MajuGarzett and he flips town, I'm going to rage so hard at geript.

What happens if we end up flipping Jampi and he's scum? Would you want to risk it with the claim?


Hm?
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
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