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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 28 2013 15:15 hzflank wrote: If his strongest read is scum and we mislynch Alakaslam, then we have 2 100% confirmed scum reads. Are you suggesting we risk a mislynch to confirm 2 mafia? I'm not entirely sure if you're being serious. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 28 2013 15:18 Onegu wrote: I agree read shouldnt reveal as we dont want them to know all of our blue roles. ##VOTE:ALAKASLAM Just a heads up, but I think you have to unvote me in order to vote again. I'm not entirely sure though. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 28 2013 15:22 hzflank wrote: Not risk. If someone claims to have visited Alakaslam last night then either the claimer + Onegu are scum or Alaka is scum. It would be stupid for a scum to make this claim. That would mean we mislych today but then get back to back scum lynches, leaving the town in a very very strong position. It is worth sacrificing 1 town to get 2 scum, if it comes to it. Yeah, but we don't have to sacrifice the townie at all. Lynching Onegu gives us more information than lynching Alakaslam. If Onegu flips town, we lynch Alakaslam. If Onegu flips scum, we lynch his "best town read" If Alakaslam flips town, we lynch Onegu. If Alakaslam flips scum, we are back to square 1. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 28 2013 15:28 Alakaslam wrote: Hz, which town do you want to info lynch, assuming the impossible that we both are? If you do not answer people will know you are scum. Hzflank has not said anything that implicates him as scum. Please do not antagonize him further because it will only hurt your case on Onegu. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
Lynching Onegu gives us more information than lynching Alakaslam. If Onegu flips town, we lynch Alakaslam. If Onegu flips scum, we lynch his "best town read" If Alakaslam flips town, we lynch Onegu. If Alakaslam flips scum, we are back to square 1. Assuming each event has equal probability, we can rank these outcomes from most preferable to least preferable. (1) Onegu Flips Scum -> We get a strong lead to work with for a lynch on Day 3. By the end of Day 3 we will have 2 scum dead. (2) Alakaslam Flips Scum -> We are back to square one. By the end of Day 2 we will have 1 scum dead (3) Alakaslam Flips Town -> We get confirmed scum Onegu lynched on Day 3. By the end of Day 4 we will have 2 scum dead, but will have lost one town member. (4) Onegu Flips Town -> We get confirmed scum Alakaslam lynched on Day 3. By the end of Day 3, we will have 1 scum dead but will have lost one town member. Our choices are to either choose the set (1,4) or to choose the set (2,3) As mentioned before, the set (1,4) gives us more information in the long run, so would be a more optimal decision. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 28 2013 15:36 jrkirby wrote:  God this game is getting so interesting! I envy you and all the observers >< ESPECIALLY CHROMATICALLY!!!! | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
Your argument seems to be that a blue claim may come out to save Onegu from a lynch today. I respectfully disagree. Based on current information, a scumbuddy of Onegu's would never come out and guarantee his own demise the following 2 days(along with Onegu's). It is completely irrational. Scum should cut their losses at Onegu and force us to scumhunt to find the last few of them. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 28 2013 15:43 FirmTofu wrote: @hzflank Your argument seems to be that a blue claim may come out to save Onegu from a lynch today. I respectfully disagree. Based on current information, a scumbuddy of Onegu's would never come out and guarantee his own demise the following 2 days(along with Onegu's). It is completely irrational. Scum should cut their losses at Onegu and force us to scumhunt to find the last few of them. In the event that a blue claim actually occurs to save Onegu, I will consider it an actual blue and will switch my vote to Alakaslam. Barring that, my vote stays on Onegu. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 28 2013 15:45 hzflank wrote: Exactly, therefore the blue claim is more likely to be scum than town. Your above scenarios are correct if it is 50/50. If there is a blue claim I see it as >50% town. Agreed. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 28 2013 15:47 hzflank wrote: And if there is no blue claim then Onegu is 100% scum, agreed? I would deem it necessary, yes. Unless the greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 28 2013 15:51 Alakaslam wrote: Town, this is really important. Listen to tofu and hz. Onegu lynch will (somehow, you still haven't answered how we know who his strongest town read is so that we lynch him when Onegu flips red) lead to info anyway, and stun and meow have lurked so much that surviving a Lylo looks too hard for me to be willing to see town risk it. Man I wish I could put some strength behind my word! Look, if I explained (again- rolleyes) how I broke down into a small little fluffy man, would that help anyone? I believe his "strongest town read" is SpicyDinosaur due to the process of elimination I mentioned before. I will quote it for you if you would like. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 28 2013 15:50 Aquanim wrote: Parity Cop - is already dead, there won't be more than one Not true. The host has stated that there can be more than one of the same blue role. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 28 2013 15:56 Aquanim wrote: Yes, the hosts do state that. There never is in a normal mini. EVER. Trust me on this. Even if there is, I think that a parity cop check on Alakaslam is conceivably worth the claim at this point. I agree that the claim is worth it, but the fact remains that you are deliberately lying. If I recall correctly, I was crucified for this a few pages back. Just saying. (I don't actually think it's bad to lie as town) | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 28 2013 16:05 hzflank wrote: It's obvious so I will put this out there. If Onegu is town then I am confident of who his number 1 town read is. I want to see that player posting before any blue claims are made. Ignore this statement if it is irrelevant to yours. Remember that Hurricane pushed for Onegu's lynch. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 28 2013 16:06 Aquanim wrote: I am not lying. I have never seen a doubled power-role in a normal mini game, I think that they are a fundamentally bad idea, the play of experienced players in every normal mini I have ever seen implicitly assumes there is only one, I have seen a host laughed at in the Obs QT for saying to the newbies that there might be more than one of a role... I can tell you for a fact that there is at most one of any power role in this game. The past does not necessarily dictate the future. Who knows, geript may be the first revolutionary host who changes the norm so that newbies actually have to be afraid of this possibility in the future. Regardless, this is a rather pointless debate and I am going to drop it starting exactly now. Please do not reply to this post. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 28 2013 16:21 Alakaslam wrote: And I am out. It's 12:20, and I am driving a bunch of high schoolers to MLG tomorrow. I have to drop a dude off on LA, and then go down from Anaheim from there. This just went from a comfy phone check during a bath to a full blown phone in bed scenario. I don't want to die irl falling asleep at the wheel and get modkilled now do I? Remember irl everyone but stim, meow, what's the deal. Goodnight. Good night! Have fun at MLG!!! | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On June 28 2013 16:32 Aquanim wrote: No, for the same reason I can't imagine you'll unvote Onegu: because we're lynching one or the other and I think I'm voting for scum. Ok, fair enough. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
It seems I am going to have to convince hzflank because Aquanim doesn't look convincable at this point. | ||
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