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On June 29 2013 04:49 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Public Service Announcement:
Reminder to all Town: a mislynch is not the end of the world here. It's important that we to follow through on this plan and not fall into despair or go rage afk. A mislynch is a real possibility, but if 'Slam does flip town, we have a lot of clear evidence (and the names of two mafia members) to actually help us make up ground. Lynching those two will get us to the endgame with a nice 2-on-1 shot of winning this thing.
Did you write this before or after my above post?
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On June 29 2013 04:49 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Public Service Announcement:
Reminder to all Town: a mislynch is not the end of the world here. It's important that we to follow through on this plan and not fall into despair or go rage afk. A mislynch is a real possibility, but if 'Slam does flip town, we have a lot of clear evidence (and the names of two mafia members) to actually help us make up ground. Lynching those two will get us to the endgame with a nice 2-on-1 shot of winning this thing.
Don't tell me who your reads are, but if Alakaslam flips town, do you have 2 or 3 reads that you are nearly certain will flip scum?
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Two scum, and also of importance, a new town read.
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Let's not assume that Alakaslam will flip green.
At the end of the day, Aqua (and to a lesser extent Spicy) have made respectable cases on Alakaslam. The case on Onegu feels better, but when you actually think about it it boils down to pre-flip associations + strange timing on the claim.
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Also, I spent a lot of time thinking about it and the result I got was that based on night actions and claims it is more likely that Alakaslam is scum.
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I would also like to say that all town members should bounce their actions and reads off a town coach. I've found it pretty helpful personally and I think many of you could benefit as well.
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If we're looking for upside to the possible successful lynches (something I find less helpful to discuss, but others seem to think it's valuable), another point is that it'd be fantastic if Onegu weren't lying, because it means we'd have a Watcher (a significantly more powerful tool for town than a Tracker at this time). This fact shouldn't make any difference in your decision-making, but if it does, there it is.
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99% chance that I will be back in a couple of hours. But just in case.
##Vote:hzflank
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Going through the filters, I now think I have figured out who the entire scum team is if 'Slam mislynches. I will vet it properly before I post it, but it will be ready for posting once Night Time hits.
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Busy Votecount (without the picture)
Onegu (2): Hurricane Sponge, FirmTofu, Alakaslam, Hurricane Sponge, hzflank
StiMaDDict (0): Aquanim, hzflank,
FirmTofu (0): Onegu
Alakaslam (5): LoneMeow, Aquanim, Onegu, hzflank,Spicydinosaur, Hurricane Sponge, LoneMeow
hzflank (1): hzflank
Not Voting:
StiMaDDict
Alakaslam is set to be relegated to guest roles on other TV shows for all eternity!
If there are any mistakes, blame Geript. (But also let us know!) + Show Spoiler +Yes I am accepting hzflank's vote despite the lack of unvote
Day 2 ends in [unparsable timestamp format]
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Stepping out for a while, possibly past the deadline. I'll try to get a ninja post in right before the flip, if for nothing else than to make my 3-man Scum Team theory public in case the game ends at the flip for posterity.
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On June 29 2013 05:15 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Going through the filters, I now think I have figured out who the entire scum team is if 'Slam mislynches. I will vet it properly before I post it, but it will be ready for posting once Night Time hits.
Got a list as well, though i have a feeling its not going to line up with yours. I'm still hoping that 'slam is scum and that the vote was overwhelming because of bussing. Would make this figuring out a lot easier.
As for stim, im more looking forward to his explanation of the vote rather than the vote itself. Town or scum can easily be seen on either side, especially with the votes the way they are.
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Jesus, my head is about to fucking explode..A headache for days..
I don't know how I am not dead yet. I played terrible for both town and scum.
Hard to get back into the game at this point to be honest.
On June 28 2013 15:04 FirmTofu wrote:
Alakaslam claims Onegu visited Hurricane.
Onegu claims his "strongest town read" visited Alakaslam.
These actions are incompatible. Onegu claims he visited Alakaslam and Alakaslam claims Onegu visited Hurricane.
We can deduce that Alakaslam and Onegu are NOT of the same alignment.
So this is what Day2 discussion has been based upon? That two people claimed contradicting things?
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I've seen a couple of arguments raised (mostly by FirmTofu):
On June 29 2013 04:01 FirmTofu wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2013 03:47 Spicydinosaur wrote:On June 29 2013 03:33 FirmTofu wrote:
There are too many people on the Alakaslam bandwagon, meaning that scum has to be on it.
Q: Why would scum vote out their own man?
A: They wouldn't. They are voting for someone they know to be town.
Hurricane, I am deeply disappointed in you. You need to consider what the mafia team could possibly be at this point if Alakaslam is mafia. Or they could be bussing and trying to get ahead of the wagon. you ever consider scum splitting up the votes? Also suprising you didnt apply this logic to the xzavier vote. 7 people were on him and you didnt go "oh shit this guy has to be town," no you kept your vote on him and lied to get others to join. You cant use this logic when you completely ignored it in the past. I did consider it, but have since ruled it out as a possibility. We have already established that either Onegu or Alakaslam MUST be mafia. This puts mafia in an awkward position. They need to save their teammate because a lynch on them would spiral out of control and likely end up with multiple mafia lynches through consecutive days. If Alakaslam is mafia, StiM will likely get lynched the following day. If Onegu is mafia, we get (basically) get another confirmed mafia the next day. Thus, I do not think that mafia, in this circumstance, would be willing to give up two of their members just to split the vote and appear innocent. They must choose the same wagon to prevent a snowball effect no matter which one flips mafia.
Whichever one we lynch, we end up with the same information - one is town, one is scum, and whatever corrolaries that one being mafia has. I don't even think this argument makes sense.
Again, I want to reiterate that I am not voting Onegu because he is 100% scum. I believe the evidence against Onegu outweighs anything placed on Alakaslam. I also cannot see how or why a scum team would tell the flustering and bumbling Alakaslam to claim.
Alakaslam genuinely looks like he is acting independently of any external input(aside from maybe a town coach).
After Onegu's claim Alakaslam was the next likely lynch. I can't see why a scum team wouldn't tell Alakaslam to make a claim that contradicted Onegu's, on the grounds that they might at least trade a town PR for his death.
I think Alakaslam is less bumbling and incompetent than he'd have us believe.
If Alakaslam is scum there are probably scum voting for him - why would they do that?
If all the scum in this game voted for Onegu at this point they'd stick out like a sore thumb. Furthermore, I don't even think it would save Alakaslam at this point (there are enough townies that even if the entire scum team votes with you on Onegu, Alakaslam may still be the lynch).
They would have voted Onegu if it looked certain that he would be lynched with a clear majority (which would make them look less suspicious). If they would be strongly culpable for lynching him, it probably wouldn't be worth it to them.
Lynching Onegu gives us more information than lynching Alakaslam.
This argument is almost completely irrelevant, even if it's true. Lynching the scum, rather than the town PR, is much, much more important than whatever "information" we would gain either way.
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Oh, and even if Hurricane doesn't know where he visited, that does not contradict Onegu's claim in any way. In fact, I don't think it affects its likelihood at all. One way or another, Onegu correctly knows where Hurricane visited. (Scum would not have fakeclaimed seeing Hurricane visit somewhere he didn't on the offchance he might be Nosy Neighbour and not know.)
I agree that unless it is necessary to decide the lynch one way or another there is no need for Hurricane to claim.
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On June 29 2013 09:13 Aquanim wrote:
Oh, and even if Hurricane doesn't know where he visited, that does not contradict Onegu's claim in any way. In fact, I don't think it affects its likelihood at all. One way or another, Onegu correctly knows where Hurricane visited. (Scum would not have fakeclaimed seeing Hurricane visit somewhere he didn't on the offchance he might be Nosy Neighbour and not know.)
I agree that unless it is necessary to decide the lynch one way or another there is no need for Hurricane to claim.
Explain this to me? I thought Alak claimed Onegu visited Hurricane and that he himself visited Alak. Since we are lynching Alak, I'm assuming that he is most likely telling a lie, therefore it is correct that Onegu visited Alak. How is it that Onegu knows where Hurricane visited? Still trying to catch up. What am I missing?
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Edit: when I said he himself, I meant Onegu claimed that he visited Alak.
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On June 29 2013 09:18 StiMaDDict wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2013 09:13 Aquanim wrote:
Oh, and even if Hurricane doesn't know where he visited, that does not contradict Onegu's claim in any way. In fact, I don't think it affects its likelihood at all. One way or another, Onegu correctly knows where Hurricane visited. (Scum would not have fakeclaimed seeing Hurricane visit somewhere he didn't on the offchance he might be Nosy Neighbour and not know.)
I agree that unless it is necessary to decide the lynch one way or another there is no need for Hurricane to claim. Explain this to me? I thought Alak claimed Onegu visited Hurricane and that he himself visited Alak. Since we are lynching Alak, I'm assuming that he is most likely telling a lie, therefore it is correct that Onegu visited Alak. How is it that Onegu knows where Hurricane visited? Still trying to catch up. What am I missing?
Onegu has claimed Watcher. He claims to have watched Alakaslam, and to have seen Hurricane visit Alakaslam.
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And Alak didn't get roleblocked? I'm guessing he said he tracked Onegu?
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On June 29 2013 09:39 StiMaDDict wrote:
And Alak didn't get roleblocked? I'm guessing he said he tracked Onegu?
How did you get to anything about Alak being roleblocked?
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EPT
