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On June 25 2013 10:04 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 25 2013 09:56 gonzaw wrote:
3)2 players that so far (since D1 ended) that have been very under the radar are Zepphird and Kurumi. Maybe we could kill one of those as well. Kurumi in particular. Zeph less so based on his interaction with Meapak.
I plan on rereading the Zeph wagon. From what I remember he had lots of votes as well (6 at some point, right?), and MZ was very active (or so I remember) trying to get him lynched.
Unless sk8 was also scum or something, that makes it unlikely Zeph is scumbuddies with MZ.
I'll have to read it again though
Show nested quote +On June 25 2013 09:56 gonzaw wrote:
4)Vig shot on snb anyone? Or I guess he'll get replaced now since he's not showing up...in which case...vig shot on snb's replacement anyone? Why not call a vig on the player you think is most likely to be scum, rather than a random shot in the dark?
You mean, why not call vig on a random player I'm not sure is scum yet (austin? or Xfire? or Kurumi?), rather than an anti-town dude that was inactive since 48 hours ago (or more) and will either vote and do shit or be replaced by someone on N2 (so we have 0 info on that guy)?
Read guides, vig shots are not just an ego-boost to shoot people you think are scum
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Okay, D1 analysis time, I think Zepphird is town after all, based on D1:
On June 24 2013 04:28 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:
votecount
Votes:
BC (0) - Sk8rguy, Dandel Ion
WoS (0) - geript, Xatalos, Meapak
Dandel Ion (1) - Kurumi, Zephirdd, geript
Kurumi (0) - geript
SnB (0) - Acrofales
Acrofales (0) - WoS
austin (0) - kitaman, Dandel Ion
geript (0) - Dandel Ion
s0lstice (3) - Xatalos, WoS, Dandel Ion, Zephirdd
Zephirdd (4) - austinmcc, s0lstice, Dandel Ion, Sk8rguy, Meapak
Sk8rguy (6) - Acrofales, Kurumi, ???, BloodyCoobler, Zephirdd, kitaman
Bubbas not voting: strongandbig, Crossfire99, gonzaw
Sk8rguy is the leading bubba with 6 votes. 9 votes are needed to lynch a bubba.
Tell me if I missed anyone. Only votes in the voting thread count!
Almost ONE HOUR before deadline, this was the voting count.
But it's "worse" than that, in the sense that I voted Zepphird by that time as well, so Zeph had 5 votes, while sk8 had 6.
At this point there were NO OTHER COUNTERWAGONs,
Then this happens:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=18985299
Zepphird UNVOTES SK8.
This puts Zepphird at 5 votes tied with sk8.
It is some time later (with no other votes changing), that Dandel initiates the snb counterwagon.
Not Meapak, not Zepphird, not any other shifty character (i.e shody scum), but Dandel.
Dandel's push of snb was mostly about not killing sk8, not really about Zepphird.
So, if Zepphird is scum....wtf are scum doing? Zepph unvotes the main lynch candidate to put him in even more peril? Unless ALL scum were on sk8, no other scum could do anything? Not even Meapak?
Zepphird just casually goes along, posting about sk8, then about solstice. Doesn't look like a nervous scum that knows could get wagoned and die in any minute.
There is one "weird" thing though, Meapak votes Zepphird when Zeph had 3 votes, then disappears, but comes back exactly 1 hour later after the snb push (not before). If they were scumbuddies, and they were confident Zepphird would NOT get lynched (if they analyzed town sentiment correctly), maybe they just let MZ bus him, but one he gathered votes wait until he loses votes to come again and "push" him.
But...are they that "smart" to do that?
On June 24 2013 05:29 Zephirdd wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2013 05:27 Crossfire99 wrote:On June 24 2013 05:25 gonzaw wrote:On June 24 2013 05:24 kitaman27 wrote:On June 24 2013 05:23 kitaman27 wrote:On June 24 2013 05:18 s0Lstice wrote:
yea let's do SnB. that's not a bad lynch at all.
/vote and unvote
You are swapping to s&B because you want to avoid a no-lynch, yet your number one super duper scum read Zeph already has five votes? What happened? Why aren't you pushing his lynch anymore instead of swapping to the "lets lynch s&b because its better than nothing" wagon? Furthermore, your super dupper scum read is vote WITH YOU, to get s&b lynched. You don't find that strange? Holy shit this makes sense Yeah, I'm down for a s0lstice lynch just because of this. ##Vote s0Lstice things like this makes me less wanting to lynch sols. He was being sarcarstic what the fuck.
On June 24 2013 05:30 Zephirdd wrote:
oh wait nvm, he actually voted snb
This is something else that makes me think he may be town.
Would scum Zepphird do that "mistake", regarding the guy he's pushing RIGHT BEFORE THE DEADLINE?
This seems like a mistake of just not reading correctly things that have happened, but still wanting to post your thoughts on the matter because you are keeping up with the thread.
It doesn't seem like a deliberate "plan" from scum to....do something about it (maybe appear more townie by appearing to make dumb mistakes?), specially if he ends that with "this makes me less wanting to lynch sols".
I doubt a scum would make such "let's fake some town trait and rush to appear townie" saying he thinks his scum target is less scummy.
There are 2 options if he's scum:
1)He thought it was genuine (he really thought sol didn't vote snb):
In which case...then what? He, as scum, would honestly believe sol didn't vote snb, and he said out loud, in the thread, he thinks sol is less scum because of it. Half an hour before deadline. If he's scum.....what would he do next? Why would he "flip-flop" like that, which (in his scum eyes') would at best do nothing and at worst put more attention to him (for flip flopping on sol, his scumread), to then end up with a null read on his target? He'd have to push someone else in 30 minutes? Why? Why go through that unnecessary effort to expose himself even more? Doesn't make sense
2)He already knew sol voted snb:
This is what I was stating before. If this was a "plan" by scum Zepphird...for what purpose? For nothing basically, since it was done in the rush of a lynch and nobody paid notice to it (until I did just now).
If it was in the middle of the day, or with a "blunder" (like actually voting someone and "fucking up", to make us WIFOM, etc), then it'd be a different thing, but here, if it was planned, it makes no sense at all.
Look at, for instance, confirmed scum Meapak. He had a clear agenda the whole time before deadline: Push Zepphird and complain to other people in sporadic posts.
You can see that agenda every time he posts.
There's no such agenda with Zepphird's posts....he's just there...he's just existing in the thread keeping up with it, and making rushed comments like those, which end up being mistakes.
So yeah, Zepphird is most likely town, unless someone would like to refute all this and go the "MZ super bussed him knowing he wouldn't get lynched and Zepphird is just cool as hell as scum" route or something.
So...one less suspect, that leaves Kurumi, austin, snb, Xfire and maybe geript/kita to me
Should be easy finding 3 scum there, right? (although I kind of want to wait for sk8 to see wtf he's going to do)
Hmm, I also kind of want to reread Xatalos...just in case (the "anti-Xatalos" guys, solstice and Acro to an extent, are dead, so I want to be sure before he keeps living and he's either scum or we get paranoid as hell later. I invite people to do that as well.)
Xatalos, do you have links to previous games of yours please? I already asked before.
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On June 25 2013 11:05 Crossfire99 wrote:
Additionally, if the solstice shot was mafia, which I think makes the most sense, they probably thought the lynch would jump to one of the other prime suspects which were sk8r and zeph. They wouldn't do this if either of them were scum. To me this further says that zeph is town (along with sk8r who I've said so repeatedly).
First of all, damn you for ninja
Second, that's actually a good point. If we assume the shot came from scum (and not 3rd party), then it was possible for people to wagon on Zepphird after that shot (hmm, maybe scum realized town sentiment was more onto lynching austin....but would they risk scum Zepphird's life for that? Even after MZ conveniently disappears and doesn't try voting austin to save Zepph?).
However...I don't really find much reason for a scum to do that shot (solstice was already misslynch and at 8 votes, you just cruise and let the misslynch happen, and you keep the anonymous-asassin-shot for when it matters, like D3-D4, or at least shoot Acro/me and get rid of a strong townie).
I think it is very likely it's 3rd party shot. Either something that has to do with the Doctor which made him instantly shoot him to gain something (maybe gain the Tardis? Maybe his win con is "you should personally kill the Doctor"? I dunno), or he just had the chance, felt like trolling and watching chaos evolve, and did it for giggles.
Either that or there's a semi-rogue scum doing whatever he likes just randomly using his powers or something.
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^ I believe the above, mostly because we DO know the roles that there are, and nobody claimed they created a "shoot claimers" kind of role (unless it just so happens the receiver and creator are both scum). So we could safely assume there isn't one.
At worst, there is an additional scum power (like MZ's disguise thing maybe?) that does something like that....but meh, I doubt scum would gain KP as an additional power (on TOP of their own PTP role)
Speaking of which...who made MZ's role? (that "Rosy" thingy)
Kind of weird nobody claimed creating it...considering there's no downside to doing so basically
Maybe I just missed it.
Although I guess it won't be that hard to find out who he is:
This is my first PTP...
So if you are scum....you dun goofed lol
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Hmm, it sounds that maybe solstice most likely made MZ's role to be honest
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How about straight up stating the role?
If I get lynched a random dude that voted me dies
But here's the best part, each night I can visit someone and he gains the same ability (after I visit him, if he gets lynched a random dude that voted for him dies).
I have no use for it and there is no use in hiding it from scum or whatever because I'll never use it, so let's just get it over with (hopefully obs qt guys have pity on me or something)
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On June 25 2013 11:46 geript wrote:
Gonzaw, you created the Doctor's role right?
No, Susan (Acro) created it.
I have no idea who has my role lol (hopefully he's not fucking up)
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Back on track:
geript, sk8, thoughts on analysis of Zepphird?
If you disagree, state why
If you agree, cool let's find some scum (you can start with those guys I posted at the bottom of my post)
Hmm, random thoughts about scum austin:
So, would scum austin be this "submissive"?
I mean, for instance look back at Aperture 2. He was obviously trying there (as scum), he tried to appear town and play the game, he wanted to live long and survive.
He doesn't do that now. He's inactive as hell, and when he's here he just makes 1 illegible big post and leaves.
Okay, maybe he just thinks the scumteam is fine and he has little time so he doesn't even try....but that doesn't seem like it.
MZ was scum, he was lurky and didn't really put himself up to survive for a long time, or try to push town around, etc.
Some people, like Dandel/Xata/BC are town (let's assume that just for the sake of this argument), so the scumteam would be a bunch of lurkers doing little then?
If that's the case...would austin REALLY act like this? If I'm getting the correct sensation about this scumteam, then it seems to me scum austin would try to gain control of the situation. At the very least discussin and being that "tryhard townie" he was in previous games as scum (at least when he is active, he could still be mildly inactive due to IRL).
But he doesn't. So if he's scum....wtf is he doing? Did the scumteam resign already?
The other option is, there's another "leader" in the scumteam. By "leader" I mean guy that scum want to keep alive for long, or at least have an idea can manipulate some stuff around and maybe bail them out, etc, so austin feels free to not try so hard this game.
This would be a guy like Dandel, or Xatalos.
Hmm, maybe kita would fall on this regard as well.
So, if we set a (most likely false) dichotomy here, either austin is town, or Dandel/Xata/maybe kita/etc is scum.
Which one do you believe (just roll on for the sake of discussion)?
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Well, I said this a lot of times before and I'm saying it now as well: I just won't try finding 3P because I find it very hard to do, and when I try I miserably fail
So yeah, if Zepphird is not scum that's what matters to me in terms of analysis. In my ideal world we lynch all scum first in succession, and 3P dies/is found in between (gets caught by DT, etc).
Well, right now I'm not 100% sure on anybody so I can entertain the notion of scum Dandel if you would be so nice to show why.
He isn't acting like MTG2 Dandel I think (while Acro was acting like that for instance), but I get the feeling he posts too much effortlessly about stuff, ie without hesitation and stuff.
That makes me think of him as likely town.
Basically he's "everywhere", he's in every discussion, etc. Scum rarely do that, unless they are trolling or something, but Dandel seems to show original thoughts and contributions and shit in those cases (scum just usually tend to focus on few stuff, like MZ with sk8 and Zeph, etc)
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Yeah you guys are boring.
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have not read shit, but new info came to my passing about the super (shitty) gun
If I use it now, it'll kill someone that used an action on D1/N1
If I don't use it, as soon as D2 ends it'll kill someone that used an action on N1/D2
So, people that did an action on N1 are a constant so that doesn't matter (also there's scum so I guess it's good)
So the difference comes in D1/D2
People that used a power on D1:
Kurumi (create invention)
BC (shoot sk8 guy)
sk8 (prevent shot)
??? mystery shooter (shot solstice)
Meapak (make me mason buddy with Acro)
People that used a power on D2:
BC (pulverized MZ)
So yeah, I don't want to kill BC alone so I'll shoot RIGHT BEFORE the deadline (so it still counts as D2). Also I have a chance to kill our mystery scum shooter from D1 because fuck him.
I wouldn't mind Kurumi dying all things constant I guess, and well sk8 dying is not the end of the world either (serves him right for the role he made me > : ( )
What you say?
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No
On June 25 2013 23:59 austinmcc wrote:
Hey duders, stop lynching me. Gonzaw's onto something here:
...
Even more than Aperture, just look at Chrono Trigger. I replaced in, was super-duper-mega caught, fought my ass off to get phagga (i think) lynched late in the game and died next day. I'm not lurky scum.
Hmm....you have a point....
Okay, austin confirmed 3P
GG
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Oh kita claimed 3P no wonders he's getting lynched
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I kind of want to kill austin for his lazy-ass case on kita, and where he completely ignores other scumreads of his, for instance Xfire (apparently he was enough of a scumread that he melted his brain when he made those illegible posts previously)
But...oh well I guess I'll have to read his filter now (and previous games).
I hate this part of playing mafia 
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Hey kita, how about you claim your PTP role? And ability as well?
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On June 26 2013 04:33 austinmcc wrote:
Kita did not receive notification last night that he became a vet.
...so?
DAMN, the filter thing changed so now I try to use filters in other games and the links are broken ;_;
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I'm talking about the role that was created for him at the start of the game (I just want to make sure he doesn't have MY role lol)
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austin convince me you are town, come on
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EPT
