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Well Xfire, it's actually very simple:
So, imagine the chances of kita being 3P survivor are X%.
If we lynch kita, we have a 50% chance of winning (by blocking austin's KP tonight).
If we lynch austin, we either win with X% chance (kita 3P), or lose with 100-X% (kita scum)
So, the question you should ask yourself is: Are the chances of kita being 3P and telling the truth more than 50% or less than 50%?
Depending on which chance you take, which action we should choose.
The other (very important) factor...is shame lol
If we lynch kita and he's 3P, you can just say "Oh well, let's move on" and that's it. You could even blame it on kita for being so scummy and playing against town
But if we lynch austin and kita is scum and we lose, then I'll never forgive myself for "falling" for that lol
So in that sense lynching kita is "safer" (regardless of the chances of him being scum or 3P)
To be honest, right now I think it's a little bit higher than 50%. Like 65% or 70% so.
I dunno...I guess some of the stuff he says makes sense and if he was scum would not make much sense.
Some of the stuff he says is kind of null though.
I'll just respond to this shit I guess and see where it goes:
On July 01 2013 12:05 kitaman27 wrote:
When I shot S0l on day one, austin, Meapak, and geript were all outed based on my action.
This...kind of makes sense. Town sentiment was against austin so scum would have figured out he would be a potential counterlynch to avoid NL on D1. Him or Zepphird.
However, if they planned that with scum kita, wouldn't scum be...like there doing shit? Not a single scum is doing anything after the shot.
You would try to think they would either:
-Try to get the lynch onto Zepphird
-Try to get people to NL
It doesn't make sense to just leave ALL townies in direct control of the counter lynch and not do a single thing (like, not a single scum made a single post until after deadline passed).
The fact not a single scum made a post does make it seem unplanned, and if kita is scum then by definition it can't be unplanned (unless he did it on his own for the lulz).
This gives more points to 3P kita than scum kita.
When geript day vig'd me, there was no reason to implicate myself in killing dandel. As scum buddies, he could have challenged sk8r, and the bus could have been done in secret.
Here....it "seems" like it makes sense but not so much.
Okay, imagine scum geript and scum kita decide to use geript's day vig to shoot a townie, but they don't want to basically claim scum in-thread; how would you do it?
Make scum kita (who's getting wagoned) claim 3P, have scum geript MK him, and have them use TARDIS to kill townie of their choice.
Things in favor of scum kita:
I still can't believe scum geript would just randomly use his day vig on the 3P instead of saving it, or use it on a townie he FoSed earlier or something.
Like...no it doesn't make sense other than a senseless "gain town cred" action.
This is the reason I kind of thought of geript as "confirmed town" before, because this action as scum if kita is not scum with him doesn't make sense
Only thing that makes sense is it was planned to kill a townie...if not why waste the bullet like that? Just don't use it and that's it, lynch kita, who is the guy that MADE YOUR ROLE, and after he dies keep the shit hidden until you need it later to kill a townie (granted not used as a vig shot per se because townies have to vote, but you can use it later when you want a scummy townie killed)...
...hmm, although since people have to vote it's more of a minilynch. I guess using it on a super townie is impossible (basically they can't use it on someone they WANT to kill), so they have to use it on kita or on a scummy townie (like sk8, etc).
In that case geript might even "lose" the fight and not get the dude lynched. Even if he does he will be held accountable for a direct town flip, and he can't push that guy anymore.
Using it on a confirmed anti-town could give him free town points I guess...
....still....doesn't make much sense to not just keep hold of it for a while longer
Thinks in favor of 3p kita:
The Dandel kill mostly.
If scum kita and scum geript use the TARDIS shit, they can anonymously kill anybody they want. They can kill BC who IS A DT and was basically confirmed town by then. They could kill me who was pretty townie back then and they didn't know my role.
They could have killed a townie they thought had a good role, like Kurumi (he outed himself as inventor-er by then I believe).
Yet they choose Dandel, who wasn't really the "confirmed town" force, nor seemed to have a known good role by then.
Like, the blame would have been on kita as well. After the Dandel "kill" everybody thought kita was scum anyways, why not just put that blame on him and keep going on? geript would have 0 blame basically unless people figured that shit out (if he tried to appear pro-town a little bit more people might have not figured that out).
If they are scum and made this super plan....just to kill Dandel...it feels pointless as well.
Kita killing Dandel to "avoid getting lynched" isn't very convincing...but makes more sense than the above
Scum had no knowledge of the TARDIS role, yet I did.
There's no way to prove this. Scum can feign ignorance of the TARDIS in-thread.
Unless there's a scum action (night kill, etc) regarding the TARDIS that proves that.
If so feel free to provide it.
Kurumi confirmed that I drained the TARDIS.
I don't see how this has to do with anything.
It is possible you drained the TARDIS by getting it. It's possible the TARDIS is drained by constant uses (like I stated earlier).
Like...not even you know why it was drained before and I doubt you 100% know why it was drained now.
I passed the TARDIS to a town player.
Hmm....kind of makes sense....
...although not so much.
Well, at that point kita was trying to seem pro-town...at least a little tiny bit.
But you shot of Dandel, and after N2 you went anti-town as hell.
Maybe as scum you passed the TARDIS to a townie YOU WOULD KILL THAT NIGHT so:
-You could get the TARDIS back after that guy died (just like scum got it on D3)
-You could reset the "mafia counter" restriction the TARDIS has by having it pass hands to a townie first
-Gain town cred and keep playing the "I'm survivor" slick, and not just be confirmed scum
So...this is rather null instead.
I have mason logs with a mafia player.
Yeah...those are kind of compelling. I'll have to reread them though.
Just a quick question: What is the TL Mafia history on fake chat logs?
I think some scum members at some other PM game faked chat logs between each other. Do you (Xfire+kita) have any idea which game, and how complex, etc it was? I.e if it faked timestamps and all that shit?
If kita was scum trying to pass himself as 3P survivor...and he and geript went through ALL that length to create those fake logs to basically never show them?
(I would assume he AND geript both faked them before geript died, and it wasn't just kita that faked the A FEW HOURS AGO all by himself. The dude there does sound like geript in a way, and it'd be more natural for both of them to "fake" discuss shit and post it as a "chat log")
Like...kita never even said he had those logs before either. He said he chatted with geript...but like once in a forgettable post.
If scum kita's plan was convincing us he was 3P survivor, then he could have shown those logs sooner (once geript was lynched for instance), or he could have tried harder.
Right now it does seem he just had those logs hidden somewhere and just quickly copy+pasted them to make his other post.
It's too much of an elaborate plan that doesn't make much sense otherwise.
I claimed survivor from the start of the game.
Yep, this is true and I don't remember a scum crumbing an ANTI-TOWN ROLE in their 1st post, specially the anti-town role they will base THEIR WHOLE GAME STRATEGY on.
This just....doesn't feel right for scum kita.
Like, if he crumbed veteran or hell maybe even survivor but in like his 10th post or some shit, something that nobody will notice, then I get it. But doing it right off the bat in his 1st post is.....well...possible I guess, but not really likely.
Xfire, can you confirm that if you shoot the guy with the TARDIS, you get the TARDIS yourself? Or is it distributed randomly?
Most importantly, kita, was it told to you anything about that?
You say that once sol claimed The Doctor (or WOS claimed for him anyways), you shot him to see if he had the TARDIS to get it.
But....how would you know if you could get the TARDIS by shooting him YOURSELF? Why couldn't you wait 10 minutes for him to get lynched instead (if the TARDIS just randomly goes to someone else no matter how the guy dies)?
Another thing that bothers me is kita's behaviour.
He seemed to be working for scum BEFORE geript was revealed as 3P. Like, back in D2 you made those cases on austin and sk8, you seemed "somewhat" pro-town.
But as soon as Dandel died, you played for scum right there. You made no cases, you shitted up the thread, trolled, said "guys im survivor dont lynch me lololo" which seemed like a scum's failed attempt at trolling and appearing like he cares about what people think about him.
At times you seemed like you didn't really care about your survival. Like people would say "okay I'll shoot kita tonight" or "okay we lynch kita tomorrow" or even in D3 when people wanted to lynch you...you didn't seem to give a shit.
If you were survivor, without any knowledge about what scum are doing (and from your POP alone in the game), then you WOULD give a shit
The only ways you wouldn't give a shit would be:
1)You had contacted scum previously, and they already told you they would protect you and had lynches worked out so you wouldn't have to worry
2)You are scum, thus you can just shit up the thread all you want, never give a shit, and you can even be lynched later and you don't care because your work for your scumteam was already made.
This last bit is the one that makes me doubt just believing you outright
If you have anything interesting to say about this kita then be my guest. Tomorrow I'll try rereading your filter from the Dandel shot (D2) to start of D3 to check the above stuff.
Another thing is that (while skimming your log with geript) you two don't really seem to talk about the protection geript apparently had on you (or I missed it), nor any protection from a lynch or whatever that is.
Again, I'd assume that if you were survivor you'd care more about.....surviving. EVERYBODY AND THEIR MOTHERS thought you were scum (they THOUGHT YOU WERE SCUM, and they thought that ever since N2 when you were playing for scum apparently, was that the play for 3P survivor you wanted to make?) and would kill you in a heartbeat with anything you got, weren't you worried about fulfilling your win-con by then?
Like, weren't you worried about town vig shots, or like the freaking lynch of D3?
I don't see you too worried nor try to get info from geript based on that.
If I missed a crucial bit in that log then point it out.
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woot
austin if kita had to be the last man standing as 3P...he'd have factional KP, that's like a fact.
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He also wouldn't have sided with scum like that
Like, imagine you guys didn't let geript get lynched last day and NLed or lynched a townie. Imagine it being 1v2v1 or 2v1 today (scum and kita).
What would "anti-scum" kita do? You guys outnumber him, he gets insta-lynched or insta-killed at night (if he doesn't have the tardis).
Well, he was outed by D2 and almost lynched maybe that was a risk he was going to take...
...but he played too pro-scum to do shit like that imo.
Oh well, didn't even read your posts lol might wanna do that
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Well, I feel that you HAVE to come up with something in order play to win today.
Kita would most likely lie about shit to avoid getting lynched today as well (even if he's 3P survivor or some shit I guess).
Meh, I'll reread and shit and reconsider, we have time.
Also, you guys could like vote each other or something, so it's easier for us to voteswitch and shit.
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On July 01 2013 22:58 kitaman27 wrote:
There is no way to prove this, but you're rarely going to get proof of something in a mafia game. You have to determine what is most likely. It is incredibly unlikely that a mafia player would have knowledge of a town role. Why would they?
I assume you "supposedly" didn't have full knowledge of the TARDIS other than "you win if you get this shit called TARDIS".
Why can't scum just know there exists a TARDIS in the game? It wouldn't give them any more info about it (that it makes you a vet/busdriver, etc).
It's possible.
I mean, until know I didn't believe ANYBODY ELSE would have a role or win con tied directly to some shit some player made up to create a role. First time I see that
"If you don't choose a new player to give the TARDIS to after having used it once or if a player dies while in possession of the TARDIS, it will be randomly distributed to some other player still alive in the game."
Killing Kurumi wouldn't guarantee it was returned to me. I gave a self-protect/busdrive ability to the town inventor when I didn't have to. Sk8r was town so there was no restriction on passing.
Hmm...Kurumi was indeed the town inventor-er, who apparently scum wanted dead so much.
But it is possible maybe, you as scum or SK or whatever knew the TARDIS would be drained after you got it and used it or whatever, so you would pass it to Kurumi and kill him at night (he wouldn't prot himself since TARDIS was deactivated then), and then get the TARDIS again later (either by chance, or by killing the townie that got it, etc etc).
Speaking of which, right now you don't have the TARDIS (austin has it). Arent' you like confirmed to lose now? The only way you can win is if we lynch austin and you get lucky (33% chance) that you get the TARDIS after he dies.
If not I or Xfire get the TARDIS, all scum are dead so we win, but you don't have the TARDIS so you lose.
On July 02 2013 00:40 austinmcc wrote:
Based on the other points, he's lying about some things and his role doesn't match up with him being a survivor.
Yeah how about you make it easier for us and point that shit out?
What exactly makes his story as survivor "reek" but makes sense as SK-ish?
You know, the lying "survivor" with a vigi shot and a "lovers" thing that is AWFUL for a survivor (see below).
You think hosts balance alignments of 3P based on the role he got?
So...what if they had my role then? Wtf would that 3P be? Jester/Town Idiot?
Or they looked at which role everybody got, and then decided "yes, the guy that gets THIS role gets to be 3P survivor, the guy that gets this other role will be 3P SK", etc?
That last one could have made sense I guess.
But why wouldn't they just give a SK a factional KP, ON TOP of his PTP role?
I mean, scum had factional KP and they had lots of PTP roles with abilities and shit, why can't a SK have that either? (of course it may not have been too balanced, but just increase some townies to 16 or 17 and that shit is good to go)
So what role would you say fits a survivor more than the one kita got?
Although now this 3rd alternative was presented yes (1- kita scum, 2-kita townie survivor, 3-kita antitown 3P)
Hmm, Xfire, do you think kita can still be scum now?
I kind of want austin to do some more shit to be sure he's not (he could start by voting kita).
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On July 02 2013 03:14 austinmcc wrote:
bee tee dubs, I don't have the TARDIS. It's either winked out of existence when Kurumi died (doesn't transfer again once drained?) or kita has it.
I don't think that matters, and you may not trust me, but...it wouldn't even do anything for me if I had it, so there's no reason to hide that. It wouldn't stop a lynch or help me kill you guys tonight, so...there's no real reason to lie here.
Actually there is.
On July 02 2013 00:42 austinmcc wrote:
He didn't tell Crossfire he had limited shots. Zephirdd didn't say anything about limited shots. Three is an odd number to be limited to. The likely conclusion? He's not actually limited on shots. He has some angle when he was talking to geript, and it slipped his mind when changing to crossfire and he didn't alter his PM.
I don't really care about him lying to confirmed scum (that is actually pro-town lol)
(wouldn't mind a thorough explanation of why he was stabbing scum in the back with it though)
Everybody and their mother knew he has unlimited shots.
Like...that's why we are even debating this shit. If we didn't figure out he could have unlimited shots we would have lynched you in a heartbeat and lynch him on D5 (since he wouldn't have any KP whatsoever to kill me or Xfire).
Also I dunno where you get the "three shot" thing. He shot solstice on D1, and Dandel on D3.
If he was indeed talking with geript before shooting Dandel on D3, then that would have been his 2nd shot, not 3rd.
Not that it matters though
On July 02 2013 00:43 austinmcc wrote:Kita told geript he was a mafia traitor. + Show Spoiler +
113
Geript
06-27-2013
06:31 PM ET (US)
Dude give me some credit. And not Traitor is comple bullshit on top of it.
112
austinmcc
06-27-2013
06:25 PM ET (US)
Uuuuuuurg. We should have considered traitor with only 3 mafia. I'd been thinking he'd be an assassin or some other 3rd party with KP to help drop numbers.
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austinmcc
06-27-2013
06:23 PM ET (US)
Don't overplay it.
Oh goddamn it. Figure out if there's a way to activate it or something I guess. Do NOT tell him I'm mafia, in case he's actually some other 3P.
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Geript
06-27-2013
06:19 PM ET (US)
FYI Kita claimed mafia traitor. Idk what to believe w/ him. In mason chat w/ him.
Pure copy paste from QT. Kita lied to us about his role. We didn't trust him, and any mention of that from his conversation with geript has been scrubbed away. If he's lying about his 3P role, he's not doing it for happy reasons. He's telling each side what they want to hear.
So...mind telling me in which part of that convo he posted he claims traitor? Because I don't see it.
Either he was in contact with geript via PMs, or one of you two is lying I suppose.
(2) Kita's lovers thing is 100% at odds with him being a survivor Show nested quote +You can pick someone to be your maid by PMing the hosts at any point in the game. You and your maid are able to communicate at any point in time, however you don't know his/her role/alignment and he/she doesnt know yours. If you and your maid survive for two straight cycles(day and night, or 144 real-life hours), you become lovers, which means that if one dies, the other suicides. Geript said he'd become "star-crossed lovers" if he stayed masoned with kita - + Show Spoiler +
117
Geript
06-27-2013
07:07 PM ET (US)
i'm quite sure he's some sort of 3p b/c if i stay masoned with him for so long then i become starcrossed lovers with him.
(We were trying to figure out what exactly kita was)
Geript did not know what that meant, or did not tell me. But look at the frigging language kita has claimed. He ties himself to another person, and if one dies, the other suicides? That's an AWFUL power for a survivor, and one you REALLY don't want to use. Not only do YOU have to survive, but now you have to make sure ANOTHER PERSON survives? You just doubled your chances of losing. And kita used his mason on geript, WHO WAS JUST CHECKED AS MAFIA (kita's version of his role says he can PM at any time to be someone's chat buddy). Geript is HIGHLY likely to die at that point, get lynched or something, but kita is planning to keep him alive overnight. Just look at that. Kita shoots geript, who fake dies on D3. He sits out a bit, then pops back into thread N3 or D4 because of his role. Kita KNOWS that, because kita created geript's role. After D3 and N3, kita becomes star-crossed lovers with RED-CHECKED GERIPT. Geript then gets lynched or killed somehow, probably, and KITA DIES BECAUSE OF HIS POWER. It's an AWFUL pairing to choose if you're kita, given the red check. And it's an AWFUL power to EVER use as a survivor, because it makes you more likely to die. But kita used it. Indicates he's NOT a survivor.
So it's awful for 3P pro-town survivor....but it's not awful for 3P anti-town survivor?....lol?
Check the OP, 3P HAS TO SURVIVE to win.
If he's confirmed as 3P then him being lover has no bearing on whether he's an anti-town faction or town faction.
Yes, most likely hosts gave him a shitty role as 3P survivor (he IS a survivor, the only thing we have to determine is if town has to kill him or not to win). I think he said something about it before in N2 or something
On July 02 2013 01:17 austinmcc wrote:
Gonzaw, crossfire, put yourself in kita's mindset D3. He could have sided with town, killed mafia. You guys would have kept him alive then. Mafia would be so utterly screwed that we would need to focus on killing town for the rest of the game. He had an easy path as a survivor. Instead, he sided with mafia. The only purpose that serves is to drag the game out, reduce numbers, and make it so it's not a bunch of townies + kita and the townies scratching their heads wondering why they haven't won yet.
Okay, so far you haven't said this but I assume this is what you are getting at:
So you are saying kita is anti-town 3P survivor, which means he wins with the Church?
Because of what you have posted, then 3rd parties can either be "Town" or "Anti-town" right? So there is always one faction that wins with that 3rd party, and one that doesn't?
That means it's impossible for there to be a SK in this game? If he's "Anti-town" then town has to kill him, but scum can win with him right?
Isn't that a little weird? Or what.
Although if he can win with scum if he's "Anti-town"....it makes sense for him to...side with scum and not town lol
On July 02 2013 03:46 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 02 2013 03:29 gonzaw wrote:
Hmm, Xfire, do you think kita can still be scum now? You've got to be kidding me.
You kid yourself dude
Anyways this is entertaining at least. Having the key to kill dudes and have them fight to survive is fun.
Well..Xfire has the key since he has 2 votes...but still.
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Austin, I find it funny how you are trying to make contributions, cases, push a lynch, and shit now when you haven't all game long lol
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Hmm, okay, so much of the shit has been said (except the "kita claimed traitor" thing which is floating around, and some tiny stuff)
I'm going now and will be back later. Hopefully Xfire is active then to discuss this shit
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Well austin, you have to spout that if you want to win so its understandable.
You don't have to convince us there is a CHANCE kita is anti-town 3P, we already know that. You have to convince us he IS anti-town 3P.
If you figure out he isn't then you have to lie I guess.
I assume you are struggling to figure out if he is indeed or not and just spouting the same shit over and over
But it's okay you already said what you needed to say.
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On July 02 2013 04:24 austinmcc wrote:
Same thing as I've said to Gonzaw and keep repeating cuz I keep posting. I don't know what you are. But I don't like it. I just know that you're not church and that I don't trust your only-survivor claim.
Yeah kita! You are so so scummy. I mean, you are not from the Church! You can't be more scummy than that!
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Well, even if he lied, he lied to scum
....like...in any other case he'd be considered pro-town hero of the day or something because of that lol.
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Also kita, you plan voting austin anytime soon? No hurries though, if you don't you'll have a slow painful death at the gallows, nothing serious
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Damn this game man, this game, makes no sense
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THEN TAKE CONTROL OF YOUR VOTE
ITS YOUR LIFE MAN
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Damn, this game is bad for my health
It's a game where we may lynch someone because he lied to scum.
And we have confirmed scum making cases and discussing stuff like it's a normal Tuesday.
Wtf is going on? lol
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It's easy for you to say, if we lynch austin you win 100% (if you are scum, if you are pro-town 3P, if you are anti-town 3P).
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Yo Xfire, are you confident austin doesn't have a working TARDIS?
Our 50% chances of winning the "WIFOM roulette" may become 33% instead if we lynch kita.
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Well that makes sense..
Also I feel flattered that you and geript wanted to kill me so bad on D3 for some reason lol
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It is possible YOU have it though.
austin doesn't seem to counter your chat with geript though. If you had the TARDIS scum would have known by D3, thus your log with geript would be fake and austin would have known (and that's a little bit more dirt to throw on you to get you lynched today instead of him).
So...meh I guess it does make more sense austin still has it and wants to play that "pfff where could it be!?" line to make us think he doesn't have it.
If that's the case then most likely the TARDIS is operational. If not then I don't really get why he would lie lol
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EPT
