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Let's play a game... |
Dammit smcc stop stealing my thunder. Seriously this is just getting ridiculous. I feel like I'm not even needed here 
That Davison quote is what clued me on to looking at votes more carefully from yesterday. I think it's a good point, and reflects well on him that he pointed it out. I do actually think it reflects well on HW as well, as I will explain soon. I also have a few other reasons to think Davison is town, which I'll get to after all the other shit I have to say.
Have a couple mostly-finished posts still need to finish up. Expect them soon. I'm interested to see your response especially concerning Eccleston and HW.
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Voting Analysis of D1
Let's take a closer look at the race between DrT and Trout.
Start of DrT wagon- smcc started the wagon with the original case here.
- Baker sheeps here
- MS1 (me) sheeps here
I feel pretty strongly all three of us are town. Nothing to see here. The score is 3-0 in favor of DrT.
Now the wagon stalls for a bit.- AMG likes the case but wants to hold onto his vote here
- Trout votes for H3.
- H3 dismisses the case
- Eccleston thinks there is a decent chance DrT is scum here but does not cast his vote
- Davis votes H3.
Score is still 3-0. But now starts the wagon on Trout- TB4 starts it off as essentially a policy lynch here
- JP states a 70% scumread on DrT and a 100% scumread on Trout, and subsequently votes Trout.
- DrT sheeps
- H3 sheeps
Trout is now leading with 4 votes to 3. If Trout is town (likely IMO), then scum must have been thinking at this point that they could get a mislynch. Let's see at what a few critical players do over the next few hours.
Ecc makes one post where he expresses hesitancy towards joining the Trout wagon, but then starts to change his mind. He then goes MIA for a few hours while other people decide the fate of the lynch.
H3 unvotes after actually reading Trout's filter. He was really under no obligation at all to do this, and further supports my idea that H3 is town.
With the score at 3 to 3, HW makes his first actual post of the thread and chooses to join the DrT wagon. link. He states that he would not be surprised if Trout were also scum. This would be a pretty baffling move if HW were scum with DrT, and gives me good reason to suspect that HW is town despite his lack of contributions. Think about it this way. HW could have written essentially the exact same post but voted for Trout instead of DrT, and nobody would have thought anything of it. But he didn't. He chose to vote for the scum. When the score was 3 to 3.
The score is now 4 to 3. Eccleston expresses his displeasure at H3's recent play, but he has still not made up his mind about which wagon he will join.
40 minutes later, smcc demands that Eccleston make up his mind.
AMG joins the DrT wagon, which obviously reflects well on him. 5 to 3.
A couple hours later, Eccleston finally votes for DrT.
H3 votes DrT, making the score 7-3-2, and at this point everybody has voted, and it looks clear that DrT will be the lynch.
Davis votes for TB4, but I think it was pretty clear that TB4 was never going to be a serious wagon or get lynched.
conclusions/summary
smcc, Baker, MS1, H3, and AMG all look pretty towny for both votes and general posting, and are probably all town.
HW has a townie-looking vote (if Trout is town).
Eccleston looks pretty bad IMO. He starts off by agreeing with the DrT case, but gives himself the option to vote Trout. He never finishes his analysis but instead disappears from the thread. He pops back in to scold H3 for his unvote of Trout. Only after being prompted by smcc and after the votecount is 5 to 3 does he finally put his vote down on DrT.
The extended pause in between him agreeing with the case on DrT, and actually putting his vote down, looks quite suspicious to me. It looks like he was weighing his options, hoping to be able to bury Trout, and only bussed DrT when he had to. The natural thing for a townie to do would have been finish his analysis and put down a vote, instead of disappear from the thread with everything up in the air.
Davis's vote on TB4 doesn't look scum-motivated to me. I don't think Davis could have had any expectation of actually lynching TB4 yesterday, after the votecount was 7-0. It would be a pretty fucking ballsy play as scum to try to start a lynch on a townie knowing that in all likeliness your scumbuddy is about to get lynched, flip red, and make you look bad. Between the two explanations, I think it's more plausible that he actually believes in that "two wagons are better than one" theory (and therefore was genuinely trying to help town) than that he is an exceptionally ballsy scum player.
JP was the second member of the Trout bandwaggon, and really helped to make it a contender. He took TB4's policy lynch idea and started throwing in scum points as well. And for someone who thought DrT was 70% scum he never consolidated onto DrT. Looks bad.
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holy shite this is the most amazing town I've ever seen.
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I'm seriously suspicious of Ecclestion.
As a reminder, here are a few things I found suspicious at the start of the game:
+ Show Spoiler [MS1] +On May 30 2013 09:03 MSmith1 wrote:
As I already said, he seemed unnecessarily hostile towards me at the start of the game. Most people are in a joyous mood after reading a town role PM so that leads me to think he is not town.
I also dislike how he refused to give any opinion of my alignment. Like, it shouldn't be too hard to read 5 posts of another player and at least hazard a guess at their alignment, but he avoided the issue. Combined with the fact that I had just called him scum, it seems like he was just afraid of me and trying to avoid me.
I also just detailed why I think his voting behavior looks more like a scum trying to avoid bussing than a townie trying to solve the game and get scum lynched:
+ Show Spoiler [MS1] +On June 03 2013 06:42 MSmith1 wrote:
Eccleston looks pretty bad IMO. He starts off by agreeing with the DrT case, but gives himself the option to vote Trout. He never finishes his analysis but instead disappears from the thread. He pops back in to scold H3 for his unvote of Trout. Only after being prompted by smcc and after the votecount is 5 to 3 does he finally put his vote down on DrT.
The extended pause in between him agreeing with the case on DrT, and actually putting his vote down, looks quite suspicious to me. It looks like he was weighing his options, hoping to be able to bury Trout, and only bussed DrT when he had to. The natural thing for a townie to do would have been finish his analysis and put down a vote, instead of disappear from the thread with everything up in the air.
One final thing that I find suspicious about Eccleston is his attitude towards H3 towards the end of the day. As I detailed above, Trout was leading DrT in votes by a score of 4 to 3 when H3 decided he wasn't a fan of the Trout case.
On May 31 2013 04:54 Hurndall3 wrote:
ew wait trout only has 1 post?!
it kind of looks like he was trying to rp and got bored.
##unvote
On May 31 2013 05:06 Eccleston wrote:
What the fuck Hurndall, are you psychotic or just very confused?
Eccleston definitely seems to be put in a bad mood by H3 unvoting Trout. Eccleston asks if H3 is "psychotic or confused", which would both imply "bad" townie.
Then a couple hours late Eccleston posts this which I suspect was him giving up for the day and resigning to bus DrT:
On May 31 2013 07:31 Eccleston wrote:Show nested quote +On May 31 2013 05:55 SMcCoy wrote:
@ Eccleston
I need to know who you want to lynch, will you join the DrT wagon? Is there any specific conclusion you draw from your musings about PT2's motivations to write that post? Yes, I agree with the case on DrT and I am on board with lynching him. ##Vote: DrTennantI have my doubts about Hurndall too. I think there's a good chance of him flipping scum. I think the conclusion you can draw from it is that his play is anti-town (which was already pretty apparent). Looking back, my second post on PT2 was pretty useless. I just started thinking about what his motivations might be and wrote the post, thinking I was onto something. I just overanalyzed it, and my first post on him was more sound than the second one. I will post more in the morning.
He finally commits to voting DrT, but states a suspicion on H3, looking forward to the next day. It seems slightly inconsistent to me that he went from calling H3 psychotic/confused to calling him malicious scum.
Oh yea. Also he hasn't posted in like forever or been very active generally + Show Spoiler +I know I'm not really one to talk
Out to dinner. Be back in a bit. Will probably vote JP because JP lynch seems to have more support than Eccleston lynch. The more I think about it, the more I don't like a Davison lynch -- will explain more later.
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That's a baller post Smith. I have written some half-finished stuff about Eccleston atm, though I feel more sure about JP than about him.
I will however look especially into Eccleston tomorrow, I don't feel like discarding HW based on your analysis though, he always could have switched to Trout.
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Best town I don't have to do jack shit.
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ya ecc or td id lynch either of those
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On June 03 2013 07:15 SMcCoy wrote:
I have written some half-finished stuff about Eccleston atm, though I feel more sure about JP than about him.
I'm totally fine with a JP lynch today. I just wanted to get the Eccleston stuff off my chest.
On June 03 2013 07:15 SMcCoy wrote:
I don't feel like discarding HW based on your analysis though, he always could have switched to Trout.
Yea I'm not calling him confirmed town or anything. If he doesn't step it up we may well have to lynch him in the next few days. It would just be a very puzzling move to vote DrT when he did if he is scum and Trout is town. Completely unnecessary bus. He could easily have said that both were suspicious and voted Trout. Or even said that he thought Trout was more suspicious. So I guess I would consider him third priority after JP and Eccleston.
@TB4
I did read your large post and I see where you're coming from, but the two points you bring up in Eccleston's defense don't convince me.
1) I might be more impressed with his questioning of H3 if the same discussion about DrT's play not necessarily coming from a scum mindset hadn't already been brought up by yourself and JP. He basically just echoed what you had already said.
2) I concede that careful deliberation is one possible explanation of his posts concerning Trout, but I was able to come up with an alternate explanation for that series of posts which I think is also quite plausible -- that he was just trying not to bus for as long as possible.
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On June 03 2013 07:53 Hurndall3 wrote:
ya ecc or td id lynch either of those
why not JP?
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On June 03 2013 08:00 Baker1986 wrote:why not JP?
his recent post looks hella town.
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but why not just sheep mccoy? He's the president after all...
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I don't have a lot to add on JP. I think he is likely to be scum for the same reasons smcc does.
Firstly, at the beginning of the game, I don't like how he tries to mediate between DrT and smcc, saying he sympathizes with both of them, and later suddenly thinks DrT would be a good lynch in accordance with thread sentiment.
Trout 100% scum from one roleplaying post? Maybe a townie could actually think that, but it's a stretch. Also, it seems kinda ridiculous how much he insists on sticking to his Trout wagon even though he considers DrT 70% scum.
I also agree with smcc's observation that JP seems to be posting with an agenda. Since the flip of DrT, I've noticed that JP's only agenda seems to be to save himself from the noose. He's almost exclusively been defending himself. Has he been scumhunting? Not one bit. Who is he voting today? Davis. What has he said in his filter that indicates that Davis is scum?
On June 03 2013 05:04 JPertwee wrote:
I see Davison being the one most likely to round out this list of scum. While it's possible there were scum on the wagon, I think at this point it's more likely that both the scum were not on the wagon. Davison fits the bill for the last member of the scum team, especially once you factor in that the scum team seemed to have had very little pull on the lynch.
When he has only written three lines of scumhunting in a couple days, and those three lines don't even indicate that he has read Davis's filter, it doesn't look like he is a townie trying to solve the game. It looks like he is a scum going "Yea let's lynch that guy who isn't me."
##Vote: JPwertee
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@H3
Can you specifically point out what you think looks town about that post? I think it looks scummy because he writes three lines about Davison, 0 lines about anyone else, and then claims Davis is "without a doubt" the best lynch today.
He clearly isn't putting much effort into scumhunting.
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I'm phone posting so I can't quote well.
I don't want to lynch JP because take a look at the post after I ask him what happens if tennant is town and trout is scum, where does he look the next day. He in no certain terms says he's coming after me: Someone who added close to nothing to the dr.t lynch and who called the trout lynch a policy.
I was just showing signs of warming up to his way of thinking and then he dropped that post alienating me again. If he was seriously trying to save his scum friend with that wagon on Dr.T, I don't think he would have made that post. I think it more likely came from a townie that genuinely thought he was right and had every intention of coming after people that fit his criteria after the lynch proved him right.
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United States22154 Posts
TheDavison has been taken over by a new player
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welp that's interesting.
Trout and Eccleston haven't posted in about 72 hours. I assumed the replacement would be for one of them, but maybe they will end up being modkilled?
Anyway, welcome new player!
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Unofficial Votecount
JP (3): Baker, smcc, MS1
TD (5): TB4, AMG, HW, JP, H3
Not Voting (3): Trout, TD, Eccleston
6 votes needed to lynch.
Looks like we are between JP and TD. I'd strongly prefer JP. I think Davis has a much better chance of being town. Also, he just got replaced. I feel it only makes sense to give his replacement time to contribute and we can try to get a read on his replacement.
Reread filters of JP, TD, smcc, and please consider voting JP with me. Also, I'd be totally down with lynching Eccleston if you guys wanna do that.
Next I will try to explain to you guys why I think TD has a good chance of being town.
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On June 03 2013 08:37 GMarshal wrote:
TheDavison has been taken over by a new player
Guys, GM confirmed me on my non-smurf account, but HAS NOT confirmed me on this smurf yet.
I'm blurring the lines of what is acceptable as Davison appears to be the prime candidate for this lynch and almost 24hrs has expired - so there so is much work to be done to prove innocence.
Apologies GM for jumping the gun. Feel free to reprimand me if you want.
All: Below are the actions I plan to take over the next 24hrs.
Feel free to direct questions my way between now and then.
(1) Dissect the cases against Davison with my fresh perspective.
Note: I can not explain the "why" of Davison. However, as I know his alignment, I can try to understand the motive and give my take on what occurred.
(2) Determine a valid counter candidate to lynch
Note: I know I am town - yet I also understand that heeds no meaning until I establish my innocence.
Please be patient, I know everyone enjoys a passionate and robust defense.
However, I do like the post count of the game currently, therefore, do not wish to break away from that.
In short: I am going to start working on the two points above, and will make every effort to answer questions headed my way post-replacing.
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##unvote
For just having lynched mafia, and having a deathless night, I'm starting to think we're getting really off track today. I'm writing something up, I can't give a time table but I will post it tonight.
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@TheRealMcCoy aka TD2
I just have three questions- How much of the thread have you read already?
- Before you replaced in, were you in the Obs QT, casually obsing on your own, or not following at all?
- If you're the real mccoy, who the fuck did Baker just appoint president?
@JP
Can you give me a sneak peak at your big post? Who do you think is scum? Trout/TD2/Eccleston/HW/who?
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EPT
