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On June 13 2013 10:04 Xzavier wrote:Show nested quote +On June 13 2013 08:59 Spicydinosaur wrote:
I'm looking at Umasi right now. Both Stim and Onegu had similar play styles by tunneling one person and not really looking anywhere else. They are so similar so its hard to choose one of them atm.
Umasi on the other hand, has changed the most from the beginning of the game. His posts in the beginning were sheeping but he emphasized logic a lot more. Now look at his posts... just pure chaos. He's either having a mental breakdown or he's going 100% crazy in an effort to look towny. On the other hand, Yavanna said she would lynch him or firere D1. Im not sure how much stock can be put in this comment because she never actually voted and fell off the face of the game. Perhaps scum had a plan.. who knows. What we do know is that Umasi voted for two townies.
I really want to hear what he and everyone else who's been absent from the thread. So right not were thinking Umasi, and i think thats the smart lynch for today. It makes the town far more effective. and he has taken a massive shift in gameplay, going form logical and reasonable to panicking. Also depending on the flips, we should mass claim day3. just a thought, you can tell me its bad and explain why its bad, but i think we can end the game on the day3 lynch. (if it doesnt end today) thoughts?
TODAY IS DAY 3
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As scum, I would not hesitate to bus a scum partner. If I thought the wagon was going to go through, I would get on it before it was a foregone conclusion.
I have literally done this minutes before the town pile-on started and looked like I was in front and leading the way. More than once.
If I were scum, I most likelly would have been on the Firere wagon. I would have gotten on it a little bit later than when I did, but early enough not to look like I"d given up on the wagon fading away.
This stuff about nobody bussing Firere is not surefire.
Not
at
all
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On June 13 2013 11:17 Spicydinosaur wrote:Show nested quote +On June 13 2013 11:07 fferyllt wrote:
As scum, I would not hesitate to bus a scum partner. If I thought the wagon was going to go through, I would get on it before it was a foregone conclusion.
I have literally done this minutes before the town pile-on started and looked like I was in front and leading the way. More than once.
If I were scum, I most likelly would have been on the Firere wagon. I would have gotten on it a little bit later than when I did, but early enough not to look like I"d given up on the wagon fading away.
This stuff about nobody bussing Firere is not surefire.
Not
at
all
So where are your thoughts on iVlosk?
Extremely mixed.
I have been exploring a lot of paranoid possibilities today, and I can see a paranoid-as-fuck case for iV being scum. It's not the only paranoid case I'm mulling over.
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On June 13 2013 11:46 Spicydinosaur wrote:Show nested quote +On June 13 2013 11:32 fferyllt wrote:
Extremely mixed.
I have been exploring a lot of paranoid possibilities today, and I can see a paranoid-as-fuck case for iV being scum. It's not the only paranoid case I'm mulling over. Whats the other case?
Onegu
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On June 13 2013 11:52 Xzavier wrote:Show nested quote +On June 13 2013 11:50 fferyllt wrote:On June 13 2013 11:46 Spicydinosaur wrote:On June 13 2013 11:32 fferyllt wrote:
Extremely mixed.
I have been exploring a lot of paranoid possibilities today, and I can see a paranoid-as-fuck case for iV being scum. It's not the only paranoid case I'm mulling over. Whats the other case? Onegu That would explain his misquoting me in attempt to fuel a bandwagon? (or abusing open thought)
No, I was mulling over the case much earlier. Night 2 and early Day 3.
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On June 13 2013 12:14 Onegu wrote:
Am I alone here? The reason this looks so bad to me is the only way I can see scum winning is killing the jailer.
We have 7 players left. Most likely 6 town and 1 scum. Possibly 6 town and an SK but I doubt it. Scum win if there are two more mislynches provided there are no more no-kill nights. With another no kill, then it will take 3 mislynches.
This is why I want to PoE some of the nulls and eliminate them from the lynch pool.
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Yes she is.
The Yavanna interactions are why I don't want to lynch Xzav.
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On June 13 2013 12:40 fferyllt wrote:
Yes she is.
The Yavanna interactions are why I don't want to lynch Xzav.
Did I not count myself?
Then it's 3-1 and MYLO on day 5 if there is another missed NK.
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^^ If there is NOT another missed NK.
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On June 13 2013 12:42 Umasi wrote:
Ffer, how do you get xzav being anything but null out of the yavanna interactions?
The yavanna interactions eliminate him as a teammate in my mind. An experienced scum player with nerves of steel and ice in their veins will chat up their scumbuddies in a game thread but it goes against scum instinct to separate, distance, ignore and null-read each other. It boggles my mind that Yavanna would pull that off in her first ever mafia game or that Xzav would react without a ton of caution if he were her partner
Look at the Yavanna/Firere interactions to get a sense of how inexperienced scum behave with each other in the game thread.
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On June 13 2013 13:11 Umasi wrote:
Xzavier, what is off about my memory of day one?
Two things ffer:
One: WHY WOULD XZAV NOT FIND HER SUSPICIOUS AND CALL HER ON IT. I found her suspicious and I'm not even xzav. t.t
The way xzav has been playing would lead me to believe he would call someone on that kind of thing, that's just how I feel he has been this game. I don't know his meta, he doesn't have a meta. But, with my perception of him, he would call her on it if he were town.
Two: Firere/Yav hardly have interactions, I think it's entirely possible Yav was just being an idiot and xzav was like t.t go away, compared to calling her on it.
I admittedly don't know why he wouldn't correct her in the scum qt, but all of this talking, if memory serves, was kinda rapid. It would be awkward to switch between the scum thread and this thread, which may go quite a way.
The bolded is exactly right. The confirmed scum hardly interacted. And Yavanna even said she was willing to lynch Firere. THAT is how newb scum act.
Xzav was reveling in being townread and viewed as a town leader and not just by Yavanna. You were openly willing to sheep his vote. Sheeping his vote wasn't scummy, but it was kinda ill advised given that ALL of the more experienced players were on a different wagon.
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On June 13 2013 13:28 Umasi wrote:
hey, xzav, I read your quote
I did it
you were suspicious of her.
Why didn't you question her about it DIRECTLY WITHIN THE INTERACTIONS.
Have you played a perfect game?
No.
Nobody has played a perfect game.
Some things are mistakes. Some things are oversights. Some things are objectively scummy. And some things are not.
A player builds up a body of work in a game. Some of the stuff they do will look suspicious and some of the stuff won't look suspicious.
I look at the body of work a player produces, and whether they appear to be motivated by a town win condition.
I actually played a game where the host pulled a trick on town. We lynched the last scum and he gave the cardflip as town. He set up an endgame where three town players were looking for the final scum among them.
They went through the game thread with a fine tooth comb and were able to build semi-solid cases on each other. And they finally decided to lynch the player known to have the strongest scum game because they figured that he was the only one who could have played so pro-town all game long and be scum.
I guess what I am saying is look around, think about all the players. And decide what looks most scum-motivated.
And also realize you won't ever convince a town player that they are scum with a 1 on 1 argument with them. And if the player is scum, you won't ever convince them to admit it in a 1 on 1 argument with them.
Xzav isn't the person you need to convince.
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On June 13 2013 13:47 Umasi wrote:
Okay, thank you Ffer, for doing more to absolve xzav than he did.
Even overlooking the mass claim question and buddy question, which we can write off as mistakes/oversights
Why would scum bus day one instead of saving a scummate.
Think about it like this: If xzav is town, they could easily have hid behind his case
or hidden behind my case, because I'm super friggen scummy
and then gotten a mislynch out of it, unless gotard is scum, which I consider unlikely.
If scum thought Firere was going down, they would want to be on that wagon for the town cred. As scum, once you are on the leading bandwagon on your scumbuddy, it's really difficult to talk yourself into leaving the wagon because if it goes through and you jumped off then you're worried that town will want to lynch you next.
So you sit on the wagon and wonder what to do, and wait...and wait...and wait to see if someone else will accidentally say something scummy and cause some town votes to peel off.
That would be ideal, because 1) you're not on the wagon that lynched town and 2) when that player eventually flips you'll look great because you were on them early.
With town it's totally different. Town is not worrying about how they'll look if they move their vote. They're trying to find and lynch scum. Town players naturally move their vote around more than scum players do. Good scum players are able to duplicate a natural-looking fluid vote-change.
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I think it is possible.
And I don't think scum Xzav would have changed his vote and then changed it again five minutes later. All it did was call attention to him. He could have stayed on Gotard and been much less visible.
I think we are looking for scum in the minor wagons and on the Firere wagon. Not on the Gotard wagon.
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yeah, I saw that.
One vote is not a big deal.
To me the bigger issue is going through the process of elimination and removing players from the lynch pool based on good reasoning. Because, the bigger the lynch pool, the more likely the final scum will win.
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Yeah I don't want to lynch Umasi today.
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I think the same is true of Stimm.
I'm not going to worry about them for now. If there's nothing from them overnight then it's time to think about them.
The last scum is not going to go without voting today, I'm pretty sure.
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Case for iV being scum (some of these may be null)
- argued against the yavanna case
- hopped the Firere bandwagon as it started to gain steam and look inevitable. Had a list of 3 for the day 1 lynch
- Skanjab died after masoning him night 1
- Stayed off the Lonemeow wagon. Voted Xzav, then Umasi
- JK means he may have been the protected victim, may also mean he was the blocked killer
- Has floated a few names on day 3 and apparently has no plans to POE his list of 4 before wagonning.
- Is not leading, despite being perceived as town by p much all.
- warmed up to yavanna as potential scum only after day 1, when she was a modkill possibility.
- minimized possibility that kill went missing because he was blocked.*
Case against iV being scum
- Day 1 gambit got the game rolling in a good direction
- Good protown general advice on stuff not to do in mafia.
- Skanjab read him as town, masoned him, self-proclaimed track record of reading him correctly**
* could be a style thing. If I were JK'd I'd make sure that possibility was kept in mind.
** strongest reason to think he's town IMO.
I'm still working on my Onego case.
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Case for Onegu being scum
- 3 days of tunneling Umasi
- no effect on the day 1, 2 lynches due to voting Umasi
- Highly defensive post after day 1 flip
On June 08 2013 17:27 Onegu wrote:Show nested quote +On June 08 2013 15:41 iVLosK! wrote:On June 08 2013 13:44 Onegu wrote:On June 08 2013 13:10 Xzavier wrote:
I also think gotard may not be scum even more now, because i feel like firere was pushing for a mislynch. Like trying to fuel the fire after it was already dying down?
anybody else get that vibe? Yeah I got that also, but I didnt really get a gotard being scum feeling in the first place, but I had a null feel on fire also so I dont know where that leaves me. I would like lonemeow to respond some more before placing a strong read on him. I just dont like how skan just refused to give good answers to me. I still have a scum read on umasi at this point, but mybe my bandwagon thing without good reason is just off base. Explain why you made your vote useless today by voting for someone who was never in a million years going to be lynched and failing to even try to convince others to join you. A vote is a terrible thing to waste, Toss. I put my vote on someone I thought was scum, why is that a bad thing. I am not the only one either. I wanted to check back in before the deadline but I slept. I dont think me voteing for someone who may or maynot be lynched is such a bad thing, I didnt have strong feelings on either of the two main canidates for myself to justify puting a vote on them.
I wanted to give myself a break from the thread before writing this up. I've reread his iso again, and besides disagreeing with him on a lot of stuff, I'm really not finding much to call scummy in his posts, except possibly just how consistent he is.
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iV, based on your positions and opinons through night 2, who do you think would perceive you as the greatest danger to their win/survival?
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EPT
