|
I'm starting to doubt my initial read on Rayn. His continued followup and focus on OO looks good and addresses a bulk of my case indirectly. It throws me off that he misses my huge posts but that could be an innocent mistake. I'm most thrown off by how many people have echoed agreement but no one was willing to put votes on him, you know, to actually get him lynched.
And that's the general atmosphere of how I'm reading Day 1. Many people voicing suspicions and pointing fingers, but very few people actually pushing / consolidating / willing to get people lynched. That leads me to believe that we have a more lurky / timid type scum team that is joining on what is available rather than actively working to push lynches. The difficulty is that we have a bunch of lurky town who are doing the exact same thing and letting scum hide amongst them.
My stance upon OO is dependent on if he can back his words with proof - if he can mount a meta case on Vayne and therefore justify his actions and stances, then he doesn't look that bad, given that I don't really find Prom's "scumslip" thing that big, as indicated by my earlier question to him.
People I want to lynch will reveal themselves early tomorrow. If they don't / can't push the cases / suspicions that they voiced in day 1, then we know they were full of fluff and just pretending to look good.
|
On May 16 2013 03:31 ObviousOne wrote:Show nested quote +On May 16 2013 01:59 slOosh wrote:
I'm starting to doubt my initial read on Rayn. His continued followup and focus on OO looks good and addresses a bulk of my case indirectly. It throws me off that he misses my huge posts but that could be an innocent mistake. I'm most thrown off by how many people have echoed agreement but no one was willing to put votes on him, you know, to actually get him lynched.
And that's the general atmosphere of how I'm reading Day 1. Many people voicing suspicions and pointing fingers, but very few people actually pushing / consolidating / willing to get people lynched. That leads me to believe that we have a more lurky / timid type scum team that is joining on what is available rather than actively working to push lynches. The difficulty is that we have a bunch of lurky town who are doing the exact same thing and letting scum hide amongst them.
My stance upon OO is dependent on if he can back his words with proof - if he can mount a meta case on Vayne and therefore justify his actions and stances, then he doesn't look that bad, given that I don't really find Prom's "scumslip" thing that big, as indicated by my earlier question to him.
People I want to lynch will reveal themselves early tomorrow. If they don't / can't push the cases / suspicions that they voiced in day 1, then we know they were full of fluff and just pretending to look good. You might be waiting a few games to get a full fledged meta case on Vayne. You know, considering this is game 2 for him on this forum here on this account as far as I am aware. If you call me saying him reacting emotionally to Prom when he said that's what he does as town in this very game (and a far as I'm aware that is where this concept originates, that he will get emotional as town when he is headed for a mislynch), why should I believe it? So I take his last game and his explanation from his play there and extend it to here and I'm left with conflicting ideas brought up by his own design that he essentially is authoring his own meta on a game by game basis. All I have to go on is his own word regarding this and that's why I don't trust it as it makes me wonder why it is that you DO. If I precluded my own play this game with "I only get demotivated about the game as town" and then did what I did, would you honestly take my word for it they I pre-emotes my actions with reasoning? Besides all that, meta is icing on the cake and not a sole basis for my case. His points regarding Prp were null, not scummy, and I wanted to hang him for lynching Prp for basically manufactured reasons. His emotional response at 3 votes is absolutely out of this world incongruent with the game state.
I'm sorry, where do I do the bolded?
I never claimed meta was a sole basis for your case. And I addressed the other points of your case:
On May 15 2013 13:00 slOosh wrote:Show nested quote +On May 15 2013 08:09 ObviousOne wrote:
I don't like it and I think I'll vote to lynch you now that I've reviewed your filter. Nothing in Prplhz filter says scum to me right now. Your point about Kita interaction means precisely nothing. Saying you suck to slOosh is null. Two null points do not a scum read make. This is a staggering fabrication while you yourself remain distanced and full of "logic" but your logic is faulty and a such you are either willfully pushing a bad lynch or you are simply not aware that most players here are friendly with each other and that basic interactions are useful not only to determine alignment but to greet each other when they haven't played together in some time.
##unvote Sinani
##vote VayneAuthority No mention at all about Vayne's meta. These are all points that existed before, and there isn't actually stuff in there that is used to prove he is scum as much as it is used to prove that he is a "bad player". Therefore the original meta use is total fluff.
You are merely using points that VE (iirc) already brought up against Vayne, just with more flourish. Your case on Vayne boils down to him being a poor player rather than scum, and you still have failed to provide any meaningful meta on him, saying that it can't be done but still using it as justification for lynching him. So 0 contribution on that end.
Your two previous votes are on yourself and on a total lurker, and this all when thread sentiment was focusing on you and a wagon was building on you:
On May 15 2013 05:51 ObviousOne wrote:
I changed my mind. Rayn is not smart. Other than that I really have nothing to add to the conversation. I got asked a question or three along the way but I CBF to answer them. I have zero passion for this game today. You can take that as you will. The fact that I was trying to get people to talk N0 and honey badgered my way up through the first flips apparently holds no weight with anyone and drained my motivation when I now see that people who were not or just barely participating are still not or just barely participating and I have no response to that except to help remove myself from this situation.
##vote ObviousOne On May 15 2013 06:47 ObviousOne wrote:Show nested quote +On May 15 2013 06:39 WaveofShadow wrote:On May 15 2013 06:30 ObviousOne wrote:
You offered to listen. Why say that nobody is listening to you in a conversation with me? I already read the thread once yes. I simply can't be useful today. Maybe I will have some insight later when I get my brain back and this headache is gone.
Someone was talking about preflip associations. The cure is to flip someone. Not hard. IML is so good. Well listening when someone is feeling down usually comes with an offer advice or assistance; if you didn't want that then I apologize. I said no one was listening to me because you said "If you feel I could redeem myself." It doesn't matter what I personally feel since no one is listening to me anyway. That's what I was getting at. Anywho, do you have any thoughts at all about the game currently or you're going to wait for a flip first? Okay. That makes some sense. FWIW I don't think you are mafia and I do plan to re-read tonight despite my condition. So let's do this and vote Sinani. BM is easy enough to figure out when he posts. Let's vote Sinani off the ship. ##unvote ObviousOne
##vote SinaniResistance will be met with aggression and hostility. If you are counting on a mod kill, shut your hole. If you think you can read into him with zero posts, you're deranged. Take out the trash. First lynch is a gift.
And you say I'm farting into the wind?
|
Also, if you choose to use [REDACTED], whatever that means, please support it with something else within the thread.
|
Gah, information overload ....
Ok one post at a time:
On May 17 2013 00:36 Promethelax wrote:
It's time for a new wagon, wake up town there is a vet looking at the noose:
##vote: VE
Go read my mega post for why, but TL:DR his play regarding OO is all kinds of not VE, if he had a strong town read on one of his favourite players he'd fight against that lynch not limp dick his way onto the wagon citing me as the reason for his vote.
I assume you are referring to the following quote here:
On May 15 2013 10:12 VisceraEyes wrote:
Let me put it out there that I'm willing to consolidate on OO if he's really lost the will to play. Prom is right, the fact that I have martyred as town doesn't make it a standard townie thing, and my read of OO might be biased because I like the guy.
I will move to OO to secure a lynch when the time comes.
Do you know of games where VE fights lynches even though it may threaten a no-lynch? It seems like he was willing to consolidate on a town read's scum read given that his wagon was [L-7], and a majority didn't look secured so close to deadline.
I'm torn with VE because I know he is a confident scum player who doesn't fear the spotlight and generally does whatever the heck he wants. Day 1 was full of many suspicions and then concluded with a scramble to consolidate. During that time VE pushed the Vayne wagon. As scum, the only reason why you would bother adding another lynch suspect is to indirectly aid a scumbuddy in trouble, and that probably wasn't the case as votes came in very late and threats were difficult to detect. He backs off as the deadline approached to consolidate, which would be counter to achieving a no-lynch day, which is ideal for scum as it leaves people an extra cycle without information and fosters suspicions and doubts.
I also agree with his lynch choice of HiroPro. He fits the Day 1 heuristic very tightly. The core of his day 1 play revolved around ObviousOne, but totally drops it with no explanation, and picks up the new thread sentiment of VE, and the rest of his posts seemed more concerned with mechanics explanations, but not with the intent of finding scum.
On May 17 2013 03:03 HiroPro wrote:
I'm not interested in killing ObviousOne right now. i'll decide who to lynch later when I have time to read. probably viscera, but we'll see.
On May 17 2013 03:31 HiroPro wrote:
there's nothing about the politician that says they have to be mafia. it's entirely possible that they're town - i can think of at least two games that I've played in with a town politician. second, the deadline is at such a unusual time that even if the politician was mafia and obviousone was town, they simply might not have been around to move it from me to obvious. then there are some people in this game who seem to believe that it's better to lynch someone that's town than to have a no-lynch on d1, a mafia politician like that might even think it's a good idea to leave a town player alive.
Another player that fits the bill is Oatsmaster. His voting patterns always parrot someone else's and give off the impression that he just wants to see people flip rather than finding scum. The day 1 vote thing is a red flag as it 1) easily aids the goal of no-lynch, and more importantly 2) let's him escape the responsibility and stance taking that a vote forces. There is no reason to think that this was a town votestealer, since the only use would be to take a suspected scum's vote and make him vote himself. Rather the vote was tossed away. A scum votestealer in a day 1 environment would have used the role defensively, since there is no point in stealing a town vote (no fear in consolidation on scumbuddy) and there could be the potential backlash of making the target look more town for it.
|
On May 17 2013 15:02 Oatsmaster wrote:Show nested quote +Another player that fits the bill is Oatsmaster. His voting patterns always parrot someone else's and give off the impression that he just wants to see people flip rather than finding scum. The day 1 vote thing is a red flag as it 1) easily aids the goal of no-lynch, and more importantly 2) let's him escape the responsibility and stance taking that a vote forces. There is no reason to think that this was a town votestealer, since the only use would be to take a suspected scum's vote and make him vote himself. Rather the vote was tossed away. A scum votestealer in a day 1 environment would have used the role defensively, since there is no point in stealing a town vote (no fear in consolidation on scumbuddy) and there could be the potential backlash of making the target look more town for it.
You played with me in nomination. Did you get the same feel here as in there? Or since you think im scum, whats different? Also why steal my vote if Im scum? Im pretty sure I took plenty of obvious stands that wouldve been accompanied by a vote if I had one. Im pretty sure I did actually vote for people even if It didnt count. Can you quote the portions where you think I am more interested in the flip than scumhunting?
Nomination was far from a normal game. All I remember from that game is that you couldn't trust me and toward the end I had to kill myself for you to trust me. None of my points are meta.
I explain in the post you quote why there is ample reason for scum to steal their own vote. Your day 1 stances don't mean much since you move on to a totally new batch of new suspects day 2.
As for the last point, I don't know how to quote attitude and tone. I think you are lackadaisical in your approach to lynches and NKs, which is at total odds with the current condition that we are in.
So Oats, can you provide original content on any of your day 1 suspects, or even the current day 2 suspects?
|
On May 17 2013 16:40 VisceraEyes wrote:Shiro is literally just following along with town sentiment. He hasn't done ANYTHING today - literally nothing but vote. But something about it. Like look at this post: Show nested quote +On May 16 2013 13:40 shirokami wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On May 16 2013 10:06 WaveofShadow wrote:
How the fuck does this make any sense at all?
Is this an association tell based on me as well?
The fact that Vivax afked the latter half of yesterday and left his vote on me is enough for you because BH changed it, even though BH was the main and aggressive proponent of my lynch all yesterday?
Fuck this is stupid. I just lost my hope on BH and vivax seems like a good guy, and I also want to see you hang buddy. Im like a the tramp dog from dat disney movie, on monday I eat at this italian who gives me pizza, next day I eat at donnie's who gives me some chicken. Im not a genius, I dont make posts that are hard to read because they are too long and full of emotional or useless bullshit, I dont say someone is scum because of his meta. I just like to agree with the towniest guy there is. BUT I will tell my OWN opinion when I seem it is necessary. but now, it is N1 and thx to some stupid people there were no-lynch. The NK will tell us something, And If I have an opinion about it, I will post it. My filter is short, and rayn and vivax can already tell that im town based on it, do you know why? IT IS EASY TO READ. Would scum SAY THIS? Like, let's remove all variables from the equation - don't factor in that he has a team - don't factor in that he's a "newbie" - just think of this from a scum-aligned standpoint. Can you think of a reason to EVER just come out and say "I just like to agree with the towniest guy there is." UGH but his filter is SOOOOO BAD.  ##Summon: Promethelax
##Summon: Blazinghand
##Summon: slOoshYou three. You three will immediately give me your opinion of shirokami. You will do this thing or you will NEVER regain your honor! Based on the observation I just made, I think town. I think new town in over his head. But I want backup on this one.
His whole filter supports his playstyle mentality -> consistency.
|
On May 18 2013 04:50 VisceraEyes wrote:Show nested quote +On May 18 2013 04:48 slOosh wrote:On May 17 2013 16:40 VisceraEyes wrote:Shiro is literally just following along with town sentiment. He hasn't done ANYTHING today - literally nothing but vote. But something about it. Like look at this post: On May 16 2013 13:40 shirokami wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On May 16 2013 10:06 WaveofShadow wrote:
How the fuck does this make any sense at all?
Is this an association tell based on me as well?
The fact that Vivax afked the latter half of yesterday and left his vote on me is enough for you because BH changed it, even though BH was the main and aggressive proponent of my lynch all yesterday?
Fuck this is stupid. I just lost my hope on BH and vivax seems like a good guy, and I also want to see you hang buddy. Im like a the tramp dog from dat disney movie, on monday I eat at this italian who gives me pizza, next day I eat at donnie's who gives me some chicken. Im not a genius, I dont make posts that are hard to read because they are too long and full of emotional or useless bullshit, I dont say someone is scum because of his meta. I just like to agree with the towniest guy there is. BUT I will tell my OWN opinion when I seem it is necessary. but now, it is N1 and thx to some stupid people there were no-lynch. The NK will tell us something, And If I have an opinion about it, I will post it. My filter is short, and rayn and vivax can already tell that im town based on it, do you know why? IT IS EASY TO READ. Would scum SAY THIS? Like, let's remove all variables from the equation - don't factor in that he has a team - don't factor in that he's a "newbie" - just think of this from a scum-aligned standpoint. Can you think of a reason to EVER just come out and say "I just like to agree with the towniest guy there is." UGH but his filter is SOOOOO BAD. ##Summon: Promethelax
##Summon: Blazinghand
##Summon: slOoshYou three. You three will immediately give me your opinion of shirokami. You will do this thing or you will NEVER regain your honor! Based on the observation I just made, I think town. I think new town in over his head. But I want backup on this one. His whole filter supports his playstyle mentality -> consistency. That's not an opinion. That's an observation. WHAT DOES IT MEEEEEEEAN?!?!?
Scum are more likely to flip-flop and take disparate / contradictory stances over time as they have a personal interest in not bringing unwanted suspicion / attention on teammates. For him to be consistent and scum means that town is so lost that he can freely give his votes away without fear of it hitting a teammate from the start of the game - which I find to be on par with the "bus all my teammates, ride town cred into victory" strategy.
|
On May 18 2013 05:09 VisceraEyes wrote:Show nested quote +On May 18 2013 05:05 slOosh wrote:On May 18 2013 04:50 VisceraEyes wrote:On May 18 2013 04:48 slOosh wrote:On May 17 2013 16:40 VisceraEyes wrote:Shiro is literally just following along with town sentiment. He hasn't done ANYTHING today - literally nothing but vote. But something about it. Like look at this post: On May 16 2013 13:40 shirokami wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On May 16 2013 10:06 WaveofShadow wrote:
How the fuck does this make any sense at all?
Is this an association tell based on me as well?
The fact that Vivax afked the latter half of yesterday and left his vote on me is enough for you because BH changed it, even though BH was the main and aggressive proponent of my lynch all yesterday?
Fuck this is stupid. I just lost my hope on BH and vivax seems like a good guy, and I also want to see you hang buddy. Im like a the tramp dog from dat disney movie, on monday I eat at this italian who gives me pizza, next day I eat at donnie's who gives me some chicken. Im not a genius, I dont make posts that are hard to read because they are too long and full of emotional or useless bullshit, I dont say someone is scum because of his meta. I just like to agree with the towniest guy there is. BUT I will tell my OWN opinion when I seem it is necessary. but now, it is N1 and thx to some stupid people there were no-lynch. The NK will tell us something, And If I have an opinion about it, I will post it. My filter is short, and rayn and vivax can already tell that im town based on it, do you know why? IT IS EASY TO READ. Would scum SAY THIS? Like, let's remove all variables from the equation - don't factor in that he has a team - don't factor in that he's a "newbie" - just think of this from a scum-aligned standpoint. Can you think of a reason to EVER just come out and say "I just like to agree with the towniest guy there is." UGH but his filter is SOOOOO BAD. ##Summon: Promethelax
##Summon: Blazinghand
##Summon: slOoshYou three. You three will immediately give me your opinion of shirokami. You will do this thing or you will NEVER regain your honor! Based on the observation I just made, I think town. I think new town in over his head. But I want backup on this one. His whole filter supports his playstyle mentality -> consistency. That's not an opinion. That's an observation. WHAT DOES IT MEEEEEEEAN?!?!? Scum are more likely to flip-flop and take disparate / contradictory stances over time as they have a personal interest in not bringing unwanted suspicion / attention on teammates. For him to be consistent and scum means that town is so lost that he can freely give his votes away without fear of it hitting a teammate from the start of the game - which I find to be on par with the "bus all my teammates, ride town cred into victory" strategy. Okay - and again, we haven't flipped a scum yet. You just made more observations without giving a conclusion in the slightest. Do you think he's town based on his consistency? Or do you think he's scum based on the apparent direction town is heading? That I've had to ask you this three times now....well it'd be an understatement to say that it surprises me.
I think he is town and if he is scum he is playing for town. Is that clear enough?
|
What the crap is going on?
|
On May 18 2013 08:55 HiroPro wrote:
ahhhh, w/e. I don't even care, I haven't slept in ages and I don't even know what i'm doing anymore at this point honestly. kill him
##Unvote
##Vote Promethelax
The guy doesn't do anything for the whole game, makes a case when he is pressured and on the end of a noose, and then immediately drops the case when something with more prospects comes up, and you all decide to sheep someone even though he gave no reasoning and isn't going to be here to figure out the lynch?
Utter bull. We stay the course - there's an abnormal amount of backlash to this lynch compared to Day 1. It probably means we are right and scum are flailing about because they are trying for perfect game.
##Vote: HiroPro
|
|
|
VE I think you are going on tilt. Reread how Hiro joined whatever wagon was available, willingly sheeped HIS SCUM READ, and has disappeared as thread became a total mess. Take a step back. Lynch Hiro.
On May 18 2013 08:55 Blazinghand wrote:
I'm currently being flood-controlled but here are my thoughts: if Prom is really doing this and bailing without backup, no case, just a vote, and saying he's gone till deadline, that's a clear scum move. I suggest we vote him. His play this game has been bullshit.
##unvote
##vote promethelax
On May 18 2013 08:55 HiroPro wrote:
ahhhh, w/e. I don't even care, I haven't slept in ages and I don't even know what i'm doing anymore at this point honestly. kill him
##Unvote
##Vote Promethelax
|
BH there's like <2 hours in the day - just know your vote is wasted on Prome and a no-lynch could mean game here.
Whoever is sheeping whatever, go and reread how the focus was all set on HiroPro, and suddenly a giant mess came out of no where and the wagons was split and diverted, and Hiro went back to lurking again now the pressure is off. If you still think lynching BH is the best move, then we've lost this anyways. Going to sleep now, please don't mess this up - all we need is one good lynch to unravel scum.
|
And now that the pressure is on he is back again ...
|
No point in staying up if you guys still can't figure this one out. See you post-game.
|
On May 18 2013 19:52 Promethelax wrote:
Sloosh is scum, hasn't cared about a lynch before but now we're in what scum probably thought was mylo he chainsaw defends BH and pushes through hiro lynch. Sorry I wasn't here to make this lynch land on scum. Assuming the game doesn't end tonight lynch into bh/sloosh tomorrow. If I'm alive I'll lead you on this road.
Hey Prom, sick pre-flip association reads.
You go AWOL last night, blame BH that he calls you out on it but then proceed to blame me for being late for day 1 lynch?
You call me desperate scum that went for a gambit on mylo, even though as scum I would know the KP formula and be able to do basic math?
You say I chainsaw defend BH even though the person pushing BH was VE and I didn't attack him, nor you in any way whatsoever?
Q: If HiroPro was the wrong lynch, why didn't Prome say anything about it?
A: He is scum that parked his vote somewhere else to avoid any responsibility, and now is trying to pin the blame of the flip based on the result, not on the analysis / justifications / reasoning.
GG. Your desire for a perfect game was your downfall.
|
Figured it out! Stinkin' elephant in the room, and barely anyone is thinking critically. This is a long post, and since I'll be busy majority / entirety of tomorrow, I will try to cover everything and predict some expected questions / whatnot.
This is an Ace game. He knows the game of mafia very well. He designs great setups that reward good play and punishes bad play. The games are balanced, and mechanics can be used, nay, should be used as a component of analysis. Let's consider last night - BH flipped scum. Good. But the greater observation to be made is that there was only one flip. Observe:
On May 13 2013 13:44 Ace wrote:
Night 0
kitaman27, the Ship Warden (Jailkeeper) has been thrown overboard!
DarthPunk, The Wall Street Investor (Vanilla Town/Self Aware Miller) has been found hung from the gallows!
On May 16 2013 14:05 Ace wrote:
Night 1
VayneAuthority, The Virgin Cruiser (Vanilla Town) has been killed
raynpelikoneet, Internet Contest Winner (Vanilla Town) has been killed
Vivax, The Crew Barber (Vigilante) has been killed
On May 19 2013 13:07 Ace wrote:
Night 2
BlazingHand, Thomas Jefferson (Framer) has been killed
What's going on here? We have 2 kills night 0, 3 kills night 1, 1 scum kill night 2. Think critically. Last night scum KP had no effect, and scum was shot. So we have missing KP, and unaccounted for KP.
What traditionally explains missing KP? Medics / jailors / veterans and ....?
What traditionally explains non-scum KP? Vigs and ...?
That's right. 3rd party SK. "Oh slOosh what are you stupid? Why would you come to that conclusion?"
Because look at it from a balance perspective. We had on our side a Jailkeeper, a 1 shot copy cat and an infinite shot vigi. Scum had 1 gimped framer, which suggests the presence of a cop-type role, and some sort of gimped vote-steal power, which wasn't even used the second day. For us to have another vig and a protective role doesn't make any sense. Furthermore, for 2KP to be removed, it means we have multiple protective roles, that failed all prior nights but simultaneously managed to block separate KP last night.
Ace is all about KISS - Keep It Simple Stupid.
There is a 3rd party SK. This is the only scenario that fits and is able to explain all three nights.
Ok - all this is nice, but for it to reach fruition requires more. That's where mechanics analysis meshes with behavioral analysis. Now that we know an SK exists, we find who matches the profile of the SK:
And it's pretty easy since I sniffed him out as scum already:
Promethelax is 3rd party Serial Killer
You can check my latest post for reasons why. His attitude and demeanor show that he doesn't truly care about town's interests. He comes in pointing fingers and blaming everyone even though he did nothing at all to help us hit the right lynch. The only reason people are wary of lynching him is that he initially voted BH (without any reasoning and justification), and BH happened to flip scum. There may not be that strong scum motivation for doing that, but there is strong 3rd party motivation. If you are right you look good, and if you are wrong you don't care.
On May 19 2013 09:18 slOosh wrote:Show nested quote +On May 18 2013 19:52 Promethelax wrote:
Sloosh is scum, hasn't cared about a lynch before but now we're in what scum probably thought was mylo he chainsaw defends BH and pushes through hiro lynch. Sorry I wasn't here to make this lynch land on scum. Assuming the game doesn't end tonight lynch into bh/sloosh tomorrow. If I'm alive I'll lead you on this road.
Hey Prom, sick pre-flip association reads. You go AWOL last night, blame BH that he calls you out on it but then proceed to blame me for being late for day 1 lynch? You call me desperate scum that went for a gambit on mylo, even though as scum I would know the KP formula and be able to do basic math? You say I chainsaw defend BH even though the person pushing BH was VE and I didn't attack him, nor you in any way whatsoever? Q: If HiroPro was the wrong lynch, why didn't Prome say anything about it? A: He is scum that parked his vote somewhere else to avoid any responsibility, and now is trying to pin the blame of the flip based on the result, not on the analysis / justifications / reasoning.GG. Your desire for a perfect game was your downfall.
ObviousOne also brings up a good point on meta: he isn't acting like townProm. It looks similar but there are some disparities. What fits the bill? 3rd party - play as if for town (why not?) but your true motives and intentions peek out.
On May 19 2013 18:43 ObviousOne wrote:Show nested quote +On May 19 2013 18:29 VisceraEyes wrote:
Suffice to say, I don't think LX is an even representation of Promethelax' scum play in the least. Yeah, okay, let's look at it this way: Prom has 2 scum games listed in his profile, one was a newbie game from ages ago and then there was LX which was random as fuck obviscummy. Take a gander at British Empire Mini II. He was town there, his early game features tons of short posts, very few large posts/mega-cases. Lots of willingness to discuss things. I don't get that bossy tone that we're seeing here in his posts from British; he's very handily demonstrating inquisitive/paranoid tendencies in British. Here he's assuming a commanding presence, but the counter-point to that is that his expected activity would not really support that playstyle for this particular game. I need to read his filter through-and-through here but that's one major difference I'm noticing that really can't be explained unless he's intentionally trying to be tough guy here and what's the town motivation for sounding like a bully? Here his posts feel less like a discussion and more like a dictatorship. He's driving but he's AFK. GHOST-RIDE THE WHIP!Does that jive with what you're feeling? Can't really do a meta analysis of his mafia play when he has two games ever and they are so far apart / different in nature. I can just point out what I see as not really feeling like his town play and guess as to whether or not that makes him scummy. Last thought for the moment, need to look at how he voted for BH, like that entire conversation in context of the thread, that's where the Swedish Fish are likely hiding.
Lastly, consider that Prom has a 3rd party mentality, look into his filter and observe how he talks about NKs.
On May 13 2013 16:35 Promethelax wrote:Show nested quote +On May 13 2013 14:29 ObviousOne wrote:On May 13 2013 14:24 VayneAuthority wrote:On May 13 2013 14:14 Blazinghand wrote:
The problem that like you and 90% of the TL Mafia community have is that you look for complex scenarios, for WTHTD, when really most of the time you should just assume things went relatively simply. This is a fairly large game with 5 scum. Games this size, scum tends to have 2 kp. Two people flipped.
Barring a vigi claim, or like a vet claim or something weird like that, the simplest thing to think, the thing that requires the fewest butt-retarded assumptions that literally everyone but me likes to make, is that scum used 2 kp and killed 2 people, who are the guys who just flipped. I'll update this view if new information emerges, but as it is I consider the matter closed. I'm right and you guys are wrong. the problem for me is the motive behind killing darth. zero way of confirming him as town and he was scheduled to be a high lynch priority this next day. Maybe mafia thought he was hiding a PR role behind his bogus claim? probably my top guess right now as that is something I would do. I also said he might be 3P and mafia would probably want to eliminate that. goddamn it. OO is scum. None of us had a reasonable explanation for a nk on DP. I've been trying to think about who has a high opinion of DP's town play in this game and the ones I know of are me and scum team from The Game (bh/kita/bugs/geript) so I was looking at bh but rather liked his posting so far. Somehow OO has an explanation for the nk that makes perfect sense if he were scum.##Vote: ObviousOne
If you recall, Prom tried pushing a poor case on OO and used this as one of the supporting reasons. It's complete nonsense. It actually makes 0 sense as people later point out, that mafia wouldn't shoot 3P. Yet Prom doesn't actually think this one through - instead he jumps on and screams scumslip. I question him later about this poor point:
On May 14 2013 01:28 Promethelax wrote:Show nested quote +On May 14 2013 01:17 slOosh wrote:
Hey Prom, why would OO as scum give out the NK explanation? because dumb. It would be bad scum play obviously but I have seen scum players do it in the past when trying to look as if they are contributing/paying attention. It is one of the things scum have the easiest time being involved in.
Ridiculous.
"Hey Prom, why wouldn't scum use their 2KP last night to shoot BH?"
"because dumb"
See how ridiculous the reasoning is? He calls out OO for a scumslip, and justifies his read when called out by me by saying that scum is dumb to resolve the logical fallacy. This is backwards thinking. Pick a stance on someone, then try to find evidence to push said stance. Furthermore, there is a good chance that Prom freaked out when OO pointed out the existance of 3rd party and wanted all such discussion snuffed out.
On May 17 2013 00:36 Promethelax wrote:
Oh lol, of course Rayn and Viv get hit.I wanted to talk to them about things. Bastards. 3 NK though. I will look back at Vivax re: shooting. If he did shoot oats is townier if he didn't I'm confused, unless chooser was hit n1? He claimed RB and Kita was JK. Or regular medic saves/vets.
Why does he even say this? He waffles around feigning confusion about what happened last night even though it was pretty clear what happened night 1. We were all operating under the assumption that scum had 2KP, they shot rayn and vivax and vivax shot vayne. We were keeping it simple.
Prom can't, because he knows that one of the shots was his. He feels the need to mention NK even though it is straightforward. He doesn't come to a conclusion, but wants to let everyone know that he is confused - implicitly suggesting that he doesn't know anything about KP. Well, he went overboard - he clearly knew everything, and underestimated what town knew.
Look at his gameplay this current cycle. Look how many people he calls scum. Look how he sets others up for future lynches if the current ones don't work out. He isn't figuring stuff out, he is trying to get everyone lynched.
tl;dr (but if you skipped down to this without properly reading this, you probably don't care about town, i.e. you are Prom or scum)
Mechanics analysis shows we have a 3rd party on board. Behavioral analysis shows that Prom is that 3rd party. Logical deduction dictates that we should kill him. K-I-S-S.
##Vote Promethelax
|
p.s.
Scum KP is probably fixed at 1. There are 4 scum left so even if we kill one we won't drop their KP.
Killing Prom today ensures that we drop anti-town KP by 1. It doesn't even matter if we lynch scum today, it isn't as good as lynching Prom.
|
On May 20 2013 14:42 Oatsmaster wrote:
I dont understand how you got to a conclusion of 3P from
2 NKs night 0.
3 NKs night 1.
1 NKs night 2.
Please elaborate.
Also about the caring about nk's, he called me confirmed town off of my thinking that the DP shot was a vig shot. Which was weird.
##Unvote
##Vote Prome
It is unlikely that Vivax was so compulsive to shoot night 0. So he shot night 1. Looking at his filter, it is most likely that he shot vayne. He died that night so he did not contribute to night 2 KP.
Night 2 had a BH scumflip. That means that there is non-scum KP still. This can either be from a town vig or 3P.
Night 2 only had a BH flip. That means that scum KP was stopped. This can either be a protective roll or 3P.
So you have 2 scenarios:
There is no 3p:
2 scum NK night 0 -> normal
2 scum NK, 1 town NK night 1 -> normal
0 scum NK, 1 town NK night 2 -> we have 2 protective roles that managed to block separate KP and we have another vig that saved their shot until now and then shot scum.
There is 3p:
1 scum NK, 1 3p NK -> normal
1 scum NK, 1 3p NK, 1 town NK -> normal
0 scum NK, 1 3p NK -> normal.
KISS. It is much much much much more likely that there is a 3p then we have 2 protective roles that both succeeded, independently and completely, and a vig saved their shot until now.
|
On May 20 2013 14:47 Oatsmaster wrote:Show nested quote +On May 20 2013 14:43 slOosh wrote:
p.s.
Scum KP is probably fixed at 1. There are 4 scum left so even if we kill one we won't drop their KP.
Killing Prom today ensures that we drop anti-town KP by 1. It doesn't even matter if we lynch scum today, it isn't as good as lynching Prom. so this is the Ace rule of always lynching 3P no matter what?
Not sure what Ace rule you are referring to, but I'm almost positive he would agree with me.
We lynch scum -> good. But scum still have 1KP (since OP suggests scum KP cannot be lowered).
We lynch Prom -> great. Anti-town KP drops by 1.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
