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On May 15 2013 10:53 Promethelax wrote:
Hiro, I appreciate your defense but I honestly don't care about it. if you think your accuser is town what do you gain by taking three paragraphs to tell me he is a lazy idiot?
Let it go and tell me about your scum reads. Why OO? Why a NL over OO?
because there are actually people who want to lynch me?
I've already explained exactly why I want to lynch obvious if you read my filter. I never said that I favored a no-lynch over lynching obvious, i said that i would rather no lynch than lynch vayne or waveofshadow.
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vivax, blazinghand isn't a player with strong reads. his claim to fame is that every single person who he threatens to eat his hat over has flipped town. he's loud, bold, and will trumpet his greatness at every given opportunity but isn't really known for his ability to find mafia. quite frankly, I'm not sure why you have so much confidence in him. would you mind explaining?
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On May 16 2013 07:47 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On May 16 2013 07:32 HiroPro wrote:
vivax, blazinghand isn't a player with strong reads. his claim to fame is that every single person who he threatens to eat his hat over has flipped town. he's loud, bold, and will trumpet his greatness at every given opportunity but isn't really known for his ability to find mafia. quite frankly, I'm not sure why you have so much confidence in him. would you mind explaining? I have to say that you bother me somewhat, too, upon reading. You talked a lot about coming to the conclusion that prplhz is probably town and what he does is so bad but I hardly see you pushing cases on people since the one on OO. Your whole push against OO looks like a calculated tunnel, your other reads are weird and don't include much reasoning. You don't inquire as much as I would want you to. You don't seem to give updates based on OO's newer play, but keep pointing to an old case. There seems to be very few doubt in your filter. I initially saw your firm opinions as town tell, but since they're becoming too firm on the timeline, they are actually looking like agenda now. I didn't check how my other reads treated you, but you sure are a good candidate for scum just based on that.
Answer the question. Where does your confidence in blazinghand come from?
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What reasons are there for a town player to outright follow another player just based on who they are? The most common are that they have a strong town read on that player and a reasonably good opinion of their ability or that they have such a high view of that person's ability that they'll blindly follow them, enamored by the thought that this player will solve the game for them and make everything right (a la prplhz/Mattchew).
In Vivax's posts, I don't see a single reason for thinking that Blazinghand is town. In fact, the only time Vivax ever mentions an opinion on Blazinhand's alignment (before following him) is when he says that BH reminds him more of his mafia play than his play as detective. After that there's never any indication of a reason for thinking BH is town that doesn't have to do with the push on WaveOfShadow. At the same time, when asked why he values BH's ability highly, Vivax can't (or won't) offer up a single reason or example.
There is a good reason for mafia to do this kind of play though: avoiding responsibility. The reasons that Vivax gives for WaveOfShadow being mafia are always balanced out by the explanation that he's mostly doing it because BH is so confident and gave a '10'. Mafia are often concerned about negative backlash from a mislynch and Vivax appears to use BH's presence as a way to avoid this danger and instead pin the blame on someone else.
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I'm not interested in killing ObviousOne right now. i'll decide who to lynch later when I have time to read. probably viscera, but we'll see.
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On May 17 2013 03:20 strongandbig wrote:Show nested quote +On May 17 2013 00:04 Promethelax wrote:
I want to see this SnB/OO tiff play out. SnB, what do you think about the oats vote steal and what did occur if he is scum. I doubt a townie would use votesteal d1 since d1 wagons are a big part of how one analyses the game and taking away a vote from scum is awful.
Both OO and SnB want more from Shiro, don't we all.
SnB bringing up Chaoser is +1 in my book, where the hell is that guy? VE never followed up on me asking about him (though neither did I). VE, BH, prp and SnB (and maaaaybe hiro?)you guys have been around long enough to know Chaoser, I'd love some insight.
okay so this is the first thing that makes me really wonder about oatsmaster being scum. Let me break it down for you guys: there are three possibilities here:- oatsmaster's vote was stolen by some terrible townie who should be shot
- oatsmaster is scum
- OO is scum
I consider the first of these options extremely unlikely; much less likely than either of the other two. First, votesteal is almost a useless power for townies; and it's very weird that someone would've used it D1. So let's say that oats's vote was stolen by scum; why didn't they use it to hammer OO? If he's town, it's free KP for them. Conclusion: he's scum. On the other hand, we have the case where oat's vote wasn't stolen by scum or town. Well, clearly his vote didn't count yesterday? If his vote wasn't stolen, then that would have to mean that his vote was canceled for some other reason. By far the most likely case where that happens is the case where he's scum - there's a clear scum motivation for having your vote not count. You can jump on your teammates' bandwagons all you want; you can ignore attacks on your voting record by just saying "oh my vote was stolen"; and it makes you look townie if you can persuade people that your vote was stolen by the scum team. So, I think we have a pretty good choice here. Between OO and Oats, I think we have a scum.
there's nothing about the politician that says they have to be mafia. it's entirely possible that they're town - i can think of at least two games that I've played in with a town politician. second, the deadline is at such a unusual time that even if the politician was mafia and obviousone was town, they simply might not have been around to move it from me to obvious. then there are some people in this game who seem to believe that it's better to lynch someone that's town than to have a no-lynch on d1, a mafia politician like that might even think it's a good idea to leave a town player alive.
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On May 17 2013 03:59 strongandbig wrote:Show nested quote +On May 17 2013 03:31 HiroPro wrote:On May 17 2013 03:20 strongandbig wrote:On May 17 2013 00:04 Promethelax wrote:
I want to see this SnB/OO tiff play out. SnB, what do you think about the oats vote steal and what did occur if he is scum. I doubt a townie would use votesteal d1 since d1 wagons are a big part of how one analyses the game and taking away a vote from scum is awful.
Both OO and SnB want more from Shiro, don't we all.
SnB bringing up Chaoser is +1 in my book, where the hell is that guy? VE never followed up on me asking about him (though neither did I). VE, BH, prp and SnB (and maaaaybe hiro?)you guys have been around long enough to know Chaoser, I'd love some insight.
okay so this is the first thing that makes me really wonder about oatsmaster being scum. Let me break it down for you guys: there are three possibilities here:- oatsmaster's vote was stolen by some terrible townie who should be shot
- oatsmaster is scum
- OO is scum
I consider the first of these options extremely unlikely; much less likely than either of the other two. First, votesteal is almost a useless power for townies; and it's very weird that someone would've used it D1. So let's say that oats's vote was stolen by scum; why didn't they use it to hammer OO? If he's town, it's free KP for them. Conclusion: he's scum. On the other hand, we have the case where oat's vote wasn't stolen by scum or town. Well, clearly his vote didn't count yesterday? If his vote wasn't stolen, then that would have to mean that his vote was canceled for some other reason. By far the most likely case where that happens is the case where he's scum - there's a clear scum motivation for having your vote not count. You can jump on your teammates' bandwagons all you want; you can ignore attacks on your voting record by just saying "oh my vote was stolen"; and it makes you look townie if you can persuade people that your vote was stolen by the scum team. So, I think we have a pretty good choice here. Between OO and Oats, I think we have a scum. there's nothing about the politician that says they have to be mafia. it's entirely possible that they're town - i can think of at least two games that I've played in with a town politician. second, the deadline is at such a unusual time that even if the politician was mafia and obviousone was town, they simply might not have been around to move it from me to obvious. then there are some people in this game who seem to believe that it's better to lynch someone that's town than to have a no-lynch on d1, a mafia politician like that might even think it's a good idea to leave a town player alive. okay this then essay (1) yes its possible that there is a town politician, its also unlikely. then, if the politician is town, its also unlikely that they would use their power on D1, since that pretty much only hurts town. two unlikely situations -> yes it's possible but i'm comfortable discounting it unless someone claims compulsive town politician or something. (2) if mafia had a stolen vote, i think it's pretty likely that at least one of them would have been around for deadline, or that they would've sent a conditional pm to ace, or something. possible, but much less likely than that either oo or oats is scum. (3) i talked about the mafia maybe wanting a no lynch thing above, i also think that's improbable. you have to remember, we already have compelling reasons for thinking either or both of oo/oats are scum, the votesteal thing is just the icing on the cake
we'll see, but i'm not really convinced. also, ace would very likely not be ok with "(2)":
First and foremost if you signed up for this game, there was a clear warning to read Death Factory Mafia 1. You know this is a real time game. As with every game of Mafia if you aren't around there is nothing to be done. Tough shit. The nature of this game doesn't change that as games with Day kills and Majority Lynch work the same way.
There was also another issue I should mention. My name is not Ver. My name is not Incognito. I don't know what they did to allow Mafia players to send in PMs for their buddies and use their powers in other games. I don't give a shit. I'm Ace. I very rarely allow players to use INDIVIDUAL Scum Powers as a group. That's pretty ridiculous as in a real time game if any of the 5 Scum players are online they can just willy nilly screw shit up.
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to be honest, this game is kind of silly. i still haven't gone through viscera's posts but we literally cannot win (since we won't be able to get lynches) unless one of chaoser/bill/sinani is mafia.
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w/e, i'll just hope for some luck in that regard.
Voting for Viscera because:
- the early WaveOfShadow vote looks artificial ("Abnormally high ratio of gif/pics"), this has nothing to do with alignment
- he constantly emphasizes early on that Obvious is lurky and lacks skill as mafia and then somehow reaches the conclusion that it's entirely possible for obvious to be a good mafia player.
- The assertion that the townie thing for obvious to do was to self-vote and suicide is complete nonsense and seems made up.
##Vote VisceraEyes
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On May 17 2013 09:25 kushm4sta wrote:
But in regards to WoS, people need to realize he spams as scum. So spamming doesn't make him town.
What are you referring to?
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i'm not really going to defend myself beyond this as I have limited time and we need a correct lynch today, so I'd rather spend my time thinking about who to lynch.
the one-liners that viscera has a problem with: I pointed out shirokami because I thought he was going unnoticed, he was reasonably active but hadn't said a single thing that I would consider useful or particularly alignment-indicative and almost no one had mentioned his name. essentially, he was hiding in plain sight. viscera's push on vayne struck me as odd at that point since he hadn't really offered up much of a reason to vote for vayne and was the only person voting for vayne yet somehow still wasn't willing to change targets. I asked strongandbig what he thought about lynching obviousone since we needed more people in order to get a lynch and he hadn't said anything about him.
the point about town/scum brushing off points against them. I'm not talking about someone ignoring something said about them, I'm well aware that townies often do this. What struck me as odd about obviousone was that he seemed slightly nervous when people said things about him and made it a point to try to turn it into a joke (which I felt also seemed kind of forced), but didn't actually do anything to assuage those concerns. Generally speaking, I would expect most town players to either outright ignore something or try to respond meaningfully.
the post I made about vivax: I never said that I found vivax suspicious for "provided his own reasoning for being on WoS, and it's a perfectly townie response to think that people who agree with you are town.". What I found odd was that vivax's major reason for voting for WaveOfShadow wasn't that he came to the conclusion on his own: it was that BH was confident in WoS being mafia (and Vivax never indicated much of a town read on BH and instead seemed to imply that his read on BH would depend on what WoS flipped).
to be perfectly honest, I don't actually see why people think that Viscera is town all of a sudden. I don't think any of the posts he's made since are particularly townie; they just simply show that he's devoting a little more time into the game than before.
But I'm more interested in lynching someone else anyway, so it doesn't really matter too much. I'll try to explain in my next post why you should lynch this person.
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I think BH is mafia for 2 reasons: the first being that he has avoided any discussion of the major lynches of today and the second being that he seems very willing to overblow minor issues.
If you look at day 2, what have been the major lynches of the day? The first is the push onto VisceraEyes and the second is the lynch attempt on me. Almost every player has either made a vote onto one of these lynches or voiced their opinions about the two of us. Blazinghand though has been active during this time period, has been asked numerous times to comment on what he thinks of me, yet hasn't made a single comment on whether VisceraEyes or myself are mafia/town. I can't think of a single town reason to avoid this issue, yet I can think of several reasons that a mafia player might do this: he doesn't want to offer up opinions because he's afraid of being wrong or defending a teammate, he would rather see another no-lynch as people are unable to consolidate, he's waiting to see which person will be lynched and then jump on at the last second.
My next problem with Blazinghand is that he seems willing to ignore the major events that occur around him and instead focuses on relatively minor things. Discarding the "10/10" WaveOfShadow lynch for ObviousOne because he martyred and then later indicated that he was willing to live is a small example. The bigger one though is what has happened today between himself and prplhz. Depending on what the KP formula is, we're looking at a MYLO/LYLO situation here. Every town player should be trying to find the best possible lynch. Yet Blazinghand has seemingly decided to go after prplhz on psuedo-policy reasons. This comment in particular seems completely off: "Show me where he does this as scum OR tell me you have a red check on him OR tell me this is a policy lynch." Why on earth would prplhz saying that he's policy lynching kushm4sta make it an acceptable push when BH apparently feels that no case on kushm4sta is acceptable without showing that he does that behavior as mafia? This isn't day 1, we're not in a situation where policy lynches are feasible or good, so why would Blazinghand be ok with that as town? The simple answer is that Blazinghand has an easy reason to vote for someone as mafia. This isn't even considering the fact that declaring that someone can only be lynched if you can prove that they've done this exact same thing as mafia before is a completely ludicrous statement.
I think BH has the best chance of flipping mafia today, so everyone should vote for him.
##Unvote
##Vote Blazinghand
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"scum-in-the-death-throes" WIFOM bomb. like do you actually believe that this is a viable tactic? that the best play to make in this kind of situation as mafia is to make a case on another mafia player?
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like you realize that not a single person has really voiced any major suspicions of Blazinghand right? that barring a miracle I'm dead. And you think that the best play by a mafia player in this scenario is to throw suspicion on one of their teammates?
if you think that blazinghand is mafia, just vote for him.
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like do you think that I enjoy joining a game like this, finding out that I barely have any time to play and as a result playing awfully, and then watching people get modkilled left and right?
do you think I find it fun to read garbage like "I'm liking the Play from VE today and hiro scum slipped. Points to the first person to find it." and watch people actually follow those instructions.
I don't even have a clue what Promethelax's alignment is, since he posts a lot, but then just makes these posts that ramble on about every different thing in thread, makes these really unsubstantiated points using "meta", and pushes cases for no real discernible reason that I can see.
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grush, don't leave me hanging here man. you know this is a bad lynch, so stop it.
why did blazinghand come in to say that this is a hideously bad lynch but not actually make any effort to stop it? like he didn't even give a single reason.
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I'M DEAD UNLESS SOMEONE UNVOTES ME RIGHT NOW.
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/salute
understood sir, carry on.
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Another person unvoting would be nice, you know -_- That way I can't get instantly hammered.
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EPT
