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Ready for some insane theories?
Obzy just claimed medic, before I go to bed I want to look at motives for doing so.
We don't know the number of power roles in the game.
Claiming from a scum perspective:
These are the outcomes:
a) There is no medic in the game - no one counter claim - situation has improved drastically.
b) There is a medic in the game - real medic counter claims during the night. Random townie gets killed - there will be word against word the next day. And real medic might get lynched next day. (If real medic gets lynched situation will eventually be 4 against 3 - without a medic. If the fake claimer has lots of town creds. this is the likely scenario)
c) There is a real medic in the game- real medic does not counter claim during the night. IF the real medic gets NKed - fake claimer will be lynched next day. Otherwise real medic counterclaims the next day see b.
d) There is a real medic in the game who doesn't counterclaim. See a)
e) No one dies. Fake medic claims to have saved fake vigi. Everyone believes them and we are dead.
Why e? How long can they argue that mafia has good reasons for keeping a claimed vigi alive?
Obzy has hinted multiple times that he will die tonight implying he is not going to save himself, who do you think he will "save"? I think its a setup for the "save".
Holy shit, that's a good plan, I'm impressed! Or did I miss some possible outcomes? (obviously me pointing this out drastically reduces the likelihood for this to happen, yet if I had waited i could either be dead or it would sound much more like a conspiracy theory)
Claiming from the town perspective?
Most already had town reads on Obzy. He said it himself few posts later.
Rain:
You know if anyone else is blue, they can claim because 3 blues in a game is super rare. cop/doc/vig is stupid op.
if you're a doc/jk you can claim and then lynch me? never even thougt of thaat.
This is the explanation given
Obzy:
If Rainbows was town, he would know that he was a proper vigilante, and there are two confirmed blues. Saying that there can't be three is flat-out-incorrect, obviously, and he wouldn't say it unless he believed it.
If Rainbows was scum, he would know by now there IS no proper vigilante, and there is no roleblocker - as there were no roleblocks claimed, or roleblockings claimed. So there is no roleblocker. As such, he KNOWS there is a doctor. Saying that there can't be three blues is absolute suicide if he fakeclaimed. He would KNOW there's another blue. So I feel like it's a fact that Rainbows is blue, and he only made that statement because he was so certain there were only two blues, as it was his past experience.
We don't know the number of power roles, I'm lost. I don't see any good motives for a doc to claim during the night. Obzys' own explanation boils down to "I don't want to play anymore". Well... I don't buy it and it might even be borderline against the rules - play to win. If the claim is true  .
This claim is motivated from a scum perspective, I'm actually quit surprised myself by this conclusion. Slight gamble should they kill the real medic, but if the intention is to not kill anyone and claim a save on rainbow - shit makes sense.
Me pointing this out might change the course of action do - tomorrow we will be wiser. And perhaps I'm just very good at conspiracy theories.
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Well, I'm now much happier lynching Warent. ^_^
Also - Can I can save myself? I didn't think I could lol
I wrote up some things about why your theory is stupid, but I don't actually think there's any reason to poke holes in it - it's just bad and I think you're scum for it.
Also: You say that I would claim to protect fake-Rainbows - what, you think that there was one blue? >.> Obviously you do not think there was just one blue.
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hmm, ebwop, to be a little less direct -
Could a medic theoretically protect themselves?
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Nothing in the rules that says you can't. But then again, my PM never states at night so I could theoretically shoot during the day.
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No matter what happens tonight, we (myself included) really just need to focus one or two things. I think in Day 1 and Day 2 I was definitely way too "all over the place".
Currently I see three topics and I suggest we focus on only 2 of them during the course of tonight, and Day3. Lets narrow our focus.
Here are the topics I see:
1) The Raven vs Rainbows discourse.
2) The vote counts for D1 and D2
3) Obzys Medic Claim
Please can we just agree that all of us will focus down on at most 2 of these topics?
"The town ideally wants an atmosphere where people can focus on one or two things at a time to get real information. This means there needs to be a fair number of posts: too little and the town can't get enough information; too many and the town can't sort through all the irrelevant junk to find the good stuff."
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Oh, hi rainbows. thoughts on Warent being scum?
+ Show Spoiler +The question is stupid, I obviously can't protect myself at night, because that' #1 not how medics work and #2 how can I 'visit' myself and protect my own home - -; I just ask because the hosts will clear up a simple question very rapidly.
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United Kingdom36161 Posts
Medics cannot protect themselves
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Rainbows, just how many shots do you get?
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Obzy, It's far more likely that you are fakeclaiming medic trying to save a fakeclaiming vigi. Wouldn't you say?
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On April 11 2013 05:43 Obzy wrote:
Well, I'm now much happier lynching Warent. ^_^
Also - Can I can save myself? I didn't think I could lol
I wrote up some things about why your theory is stupid, but I don't actually think there's any reason to poke holes in it - it's just bad and I think you're scum for it.
Also: You say that I would claim to protect fake-Rainbows - what, you think that there was one blue? >.> Obviously you do not think there was just one blue.
Way to make an argument, very townie indeed (sarcasm). Not bothering about logic and arguments, that's weapons of the scummy.
Why did you claim? Enlighten us, how will it help town win?
Power rolls are being distributed in a random manner (you are allowed to correct me if I'm wrong). If your claim is fake and there is a real doc in the game the claim is still a good move from a scum perspective - I explained why.
Smancer, I think you've been manipulated by Obzy whole game... Take a look at your case against Jampi, where did you get that idea from?
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Scum, can you please just let me shoot Raven? It'll be awesome, just watch.
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So you couldn't shoot during the day... You said you used your shot Day 1.
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Read the role PM dude.
Also, you can't shoot during the day lol.
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Smancer - you quote that I should play to win. I rather believe I have actively been trying to help town win. You are pointing out my words, and ignoring my actions. I fail to see how my claim is remotely important as a topic of discussion, unless you think that my play before claiming looked scummy enough that the claim itself places suspicion on me.
I have already given my opinion on the Raven vs Rainbows discourse - several times, actually. And the vote counts from Warent, who accused me so now I'm fairly 100% certain that he is scum, are not necessarily something I think require discussion since they are a statement of facts rather than good insight as to why they matter, but I will indulge your curiosity, despite thinking you're likely a second scum.
My input on the vote counts:
Day one lynch:
TheRavensname (1) Rainbows
Rainbows (2) Warent, TheRavensName
jrkirby (2) JarJarDrinks, nobodywonder
jampidampi (4) Smancer, Obzy, Fishgle, Moloch
JarJarDrinks (3) Saraf, jrkirby, jampidampi
Specifically, I guess I'll note the thing I noticed but am not certain about: Jarjar had 3 votes here, and all three voters on him were town, while four voters were on other targets. This sort of makes me worry that Jarjar is more likely to be town, since mafia wouldn't've felt comfortable with the end of the lynch if he was scum. /shrug although he's still scummy.
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Wait, how are you going to shoot Raven
On April 08 2013 22:07 Rainbows wrote:
I shot him last night. Scum probably thought i would and RBd me. If Raven were town I'd probably have been allowed to shoot him and they just nk me instead. Or maybe they just want to push my lynch today.
You used your shot didn't you? Maybe I am confused:
If Vig is rollblocked and tries to shoot someone, does he still have a shot to use later?
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How convenient that you will survive and Rainbow as well.
@Smancer, I agree, but the night events must be considered as well.
Good night.
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On April 11 2013 05:59 Smancer wrote:Wait, how are you going to shoot Raven Show nested quote +On April 08 2013 22:07 Rainbows wrote:
I shot him last night. Scum probably thought i would and RBd me. If Raven were town I'd probably have been allowed to shoot him and they just nk me instead. Or maybe they just want to push my lynch today.
You used your shot didn't you? Maybe I am confused: If Vig is rollblocked and tries to shoot someone, does he still have a shot to use later?
Yes
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Ok I see the PM, yea my bad
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On April 11 2013 05:59 Warent wrote:
How convenient that you will survive and Rainbow as well
@Smancer, I agree, but the night events must be considered as well.
Good night.
Good to know you're scum, ty.
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EPT
