EPTDo you think shiaopi was really mafia and just sort of super soft bussing tube despite tube being under no real pressure?
TL Mafia LXI - Page 4
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Sharrant
Canada543 Posts
Do you think shiaopi was really mafia and just sort of super soft bussing tube despite tube being under no real pressure? | ||
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Sharrant
Canada543 Posts
On April 25 2013 20:29 ShiaoPi wrote: Can we kill tube? He does fucking nothing and ninjavotes as well.... Fucking sad This post makes me fairly uninterested in going after ShiaoPi today. On Palmar: He should not be lynched today, it doesn't matter how scummy you think he is. There's like a 1% chance he's actually scum, and if he is he has to reveal it in the next couple of days. The possible play for mafia of Roleblocking him, and withholding a shot to kill him is so weak that I don't think it needs to be considered. Him and Vivax were both considered very town by the thread, neither gave any reason to think they might be a veteran. There were only a few people that had done a very good job of making themselves look like town: Kush, Vivax, and BM Of the people who had done a good job of making themselves look town, Palmar was the strongest player. BM is such a volatile player that he could easily switch and become a majorly scummy looking player, and Kush is probably the weakest analyzer of the group. Palmar and Vivax make great shots (assuming Palmar is town). That's an incredibly likely situation to me. Now if he's mafia, the play doesn't make any sense. They sacrifice one KP on night one, and they most likely sacrifice a role block that could potentially stop a check, to give some town cred. This is already a decently big sacrifice, but it's also the worst possible player to do it on. Are you going to believe that a town Palmar makes it to LyLo? Hell, if Palmar is alive on Day 4 would any of you think anything but insta-lynch him? This plan becomes even worse then, when you consider that if he was RB'ed and shot tonight, then almost certainly he would be shot again or double stacked the next night. So every night they have to withhold one KP either by double stacking or just not firing. The amount they have to sacrifice to make the situation plausible is too much. However, since BC also claimed roleblock, it is entirely possible that scum shot BC and not Palmar. This seems very unlikely to me because BC seems almost destined to be mislynched because of how much everyone (mistakenly or not) seems to mistrust him. So yes, Palmar could be mafia, but it's very unlikely, and it will be very obvious after a day or two if he is. | ||
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Sharrant
Canada543 Posts
Person that needs to die after: Stutters695 If you believe at all in hosts balancing the game, then you should want Stutters dead. I have all 3 real "veteran" players that are in the game marked as slightly townie or higher for each of them. However, people seem to forget we have 4 veterans. DrHelvetica started off in this game before being replaced by Stutters. When we hit night phase he needs to be shot ASAP. It seems to me that this game is coming together nicely for town, which either means some very townie people are mafia, or the mafia are in a very weak position. If their team started off with Tube (impossibly lurky), Clarity (incredibly lurky), DrH (needed to be replaced, replacement only has 2 posts) then this would make a lot of sense. DrH/Stutters deserves a bullet, not a noose. Someone make it happen when we hit night. | ||
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Sharrant
Canada543 Posts
On April 26 2013 13:49 raynpelikoneet wrote: One thing i don't agree with your analysis Sharrant. If Palmar was mafia and BC town i would find it likely that mafia would shoot BC over anyone but maybe Ace in addition to Vivax. No matter how right or wrong he is on D1 he is capable of destroying scumteams if they let him live. I'm not sure I follow, that just sounds like another point as to why Palmar isn't mafia. If you believe a mafia Palmar would shoot BC over anyone (with Ace a close second) but the only shot was Vivax, then does that not say you believe Palmar is not mafia? I think we may have our wires crossed again, help me out here. | ||
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Sharrant
Canada543 Posts
On April 26 2013 13:56 raynpelikoneet wrote: As BC claimed roleblocked there is a possibility that scum shot him right? If Palmar is mafia, scum probably shot BC if he is town. Ah, I get you know. That is a possibility, but I still find it quite unlikely, I will however keep it in mind. At any rate, I don't think you can disagree that if Palmar is mafia trying to pull the wool over town's eyes with this one, it is doomed to fail because he's not a player that will benefit from the plan as he either dies quickly or will get lynched. | ||
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Sharrant
Canada543 Posts
On April 26 2013 14:05 Ace wrote: I forgot I had already switched my vote to Clarity earlier so its already on his wagon. Sharrant besides stutters, what do you think about lynching Clarity and then viging into the Oats' suspects I named? I would take Kush out of the list (both times), ShiaoPi. You have succeeded in sparking some suspicion on Yamato from me, but I'm not interested in having him vigged, nor am I sure that I want him flipped at any point. He still reads really headstrong, and that's enough to keep me satisfied for the moment. I've had a long day so I won't be able to give his filter a dive until tomorrow, I'll let you know what I think about him specifically when I get up. After that I think GiygaS is probably the best vigi shot, someone brought up some decent points about him earlier, and I remember reading through the thread on my phone gave me the impression that he just sort of ended up wherever there was more than 3 people that started sharing an opinion. The order in which I'd shoot them is: GiygaS > MrCC > WoS=Hopeless I'll let you know in the morning where Yamato fits into that list, or why he doesn't belong in that list. One of ObviousOne's last few posts just made me think he's probably going to end up in first or second on that list when I read through, if he was correct about what Yamato said. | ||
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Sharrant
Canada543 Posts
You posted later, and had four people you wanted to lynch, but Clarity was not among them and seems to have escaped your notice again. Do you still think Clarity is scummy, or have you moved him to null or townie? Why did you <insert whichever thing you did>? @Rayne: It's on my list to do when I wake up. Good night, everyone. | ||
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Sharrant
Canada543 Posts
As far as Yamato goes, I'm still thinking he's most likely town. I would not place him in the vig list. Also, anyone that thinks VE is scum shouldn't think that Yamato is too. Yamato pushed really hard for VE's lynch on day one. If there's anyone that has both VE and Yamato as strong scum reads, they should be looked into. I'll be reading from my phone for the next while. I won't be posting unless there's something particularly important I find, or if someone asks me something that only takes a small response. | ||
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On April 27 2013 00:24 VisceraEyes wrote: Yamato being absentee is fucking weird...he didn't give any indication that he'd be gone for so long and he's got a BC case to refute if he can. I want to lynch Palmar still. Nothing has changed since I left except BM posting a lot and Palmar continuing to be awful. You're not lynching palmar today, and that's final. Lynch clarity or with me. Or explain how other people jumped ahead of him in terms of scumminess. | ||
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Mafia are just not in a position where bussing is a particularly viable strategy. Read through the OP quickly. If we lynch a mafia right now they will have a single factional KP, and we most likely blocked a KP on night one. This means that a bus would make it 18 (minus whatever amount of third party, though only poisoner and survivor seem likely at this point) to 3. Mafia can have at most 3 vigis. So mafia can set town down to 14-3, at best, but then they will be stuck with 1 KP for the rest of the game, but most likely the roles only allow them to put it at 16-3, maybe even only 17-3 with good protections by town. (this doesn't include town vig shots which can make it better for mafia, or potentially wipe them out entirely at this point) If they can force a mislynch then they will have 2 kp tonight + vigis +another mislynched townie. Given that we can't know for how long the mafia knew in advance that Tube would be mod killed, I don't think it's likely that any of the mafia were bussing on Day 2 unless it was very soft bussing. Adding this on top of Ace's analysis of ShiaoPi from earlier actually makes me feel like ShiaoPi would be a very bad lynch for today. I don't really feel great about using a mod kill to flip Clarity. I'd rather lynch him if only to stay in the spirit of the game, but since we can take as long as we want, I'm willing to be flexible on this one. | ||
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Sharrant
Canada543 Posts
Ace, I'm in love with the analysis you posted while I was gone from the thread. Right now I want vigi shots on Stutters and Hopeless. I may change my mind about Hopeless, I'm going to do a long read of him later. Stutters is a lurker, taking over for a vet (when the other 3 vets look townie) and he soft defended clarity while voting ShiaoPi. | ||
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On April 28 2013 05:56 Mr. Cheesecake wrote: Shoot waveofshadow 100% Convince me on this one, I have some suspicions, let's figure out if they're the same. | ||
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On April 28 2013 06:01 WaveofShadow wrote: Oh and don't bother not vigging and trying to DT check me because I'm self-aware miller. You guys need to decide if you don't trust me and want me gone or not. On April 28 2013 06:04 Palmar wrote: oh actually that might be stupid enough for him not to be scum. changed my mind. Shoot VE for being wrong and bad. Palmar, our minds went the opposite directions on this one. I didn't think he should be shot, but maybe lynched in a day or two. This claim makes me think he has to be shot now. If he were self aware miller I think he would've shown more interest in the discussion about BM's possible miller claim, the discussion of miller policy, and done more about it than make one post that seemed really sarcastic and flippant of the whole situation. On April 22 2013 05:24 WaveofShadow wrote: Millers totes important, bro. Hey Marv/Geript, still looking for an answer to my question you've so conveniently ignored. Does that change your thoughts about his claim? | ||
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