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On March 31 2013 01:55 Oatsmaster wrote:
Thoughts on Rayn everybody?
Considering he flipped scum in Newbie XXXIX
One scum game does not a meta make (have you read the postgame comments in The Game thread?)
I don't think it should have much impact on how we evaluate his play this game, unless there are specific things people were seeing from him which they thought "this specific thing wouldn't come from a scummer," and he did those specific things in that other game.
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On March 31 2013 01:59 Keirathi wrote:
Yes yes, we already have a majority on Smurf.
Who would you lynch beside him if we don't lynch Smurf+Acro.
I haven't been persuaded by the defenses of obviousone, I still believe he could be scum for the reasons I described during the night phase, so he would be my next choice.
For a second lynch, I guess I would have to say sinani? I've found the cases on him from both sides to be just sort-of persuasive, so I feel like he's kind of a coinflip but my other choice would be marv and I don't think I'm ready to actually lynch him just yet.
I haven't looked at oatsmaster yet though, he's another possibility in that I haven't seen anything from him that makes me go "oh he's town", but it seems like no one has very strong scum reads on him that I've noticed so maybe people who've played with him more have done some analysis.
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On March 31 2013 02:03 Oatsmaster wrote:Show nested quote +On March 31 2013 02:00 strongandbig wrote:On March 31 2013 01:55 Oatsmaster wrote:
Thoughts on Rayn everybody?
Considering he flipped scum in Newbie XXXIX One scum game does not a meta make (have you read the postgame comments in The Game thread?) I don't think it should have much impact on how we evaluate his play this game, unless there are specific things people were seeing from him which they thought "this specific thing wouldn't come from a scummer," and he did those specific things in that other game. Not considering that he flipped scum in Newbie XXXIX. Are you deliberately ignoring the question?
Lol no, I'm deliberately saying I don't think it's a good question. I think unless someone was predicting a town read on him on certain things that they thought were "town tells" but that he did as scum, then his alignment in that game shouldn't have a big effect on analysis of him in this one.
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if he's a scum vote rigger and he can "rig the votes" however he wants, wouldn't that mean he could just force a no-lynch?
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i'm gonna vote for acro but i'll listen if he shows up to defend himself.
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i dont think that will work
but i will do it anyway, i guess it cant hurt
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On March 31 2013 07:01 Hapahauli wrote:
rofl
what a retardedly imba role
yeah its a pretty dumb role specifically in this game, it completely annuls the double lynch that palmar had
like we didn't even get anything in the thread saying that it was acro that used it.
at least now we know marv is town lol
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sinani206
Grackaroni
Nisani201
marvellosity
Oatsmaster
Acrofales
Dandel Ion
Keirathi
raynpelikoneet
strongandbig
Palmar
cDgCorazon
Hapahauli
prplhz
ObviousOne
InsertSmurfHere
So if there are 4 scum, either two out of the group (sinani, oats, prp, ryan) are scum, or else keirathi/corazon are scum.
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On March 31 2013 15:34 Oatsmaster wrote:Acro is dead, right. Hmm. Something to think about is why Acro/scumteam chose OO and dandel ion instead of Kier or Cora or marv or hapa, who I would definetely consider first before those two. Rayn, explain your role fully please. Also possibly when Acro switched the 2 lynches, that meant that he instantly died. Which means Rayn is bullshitting and is scum. Honestly the weird stuff he posted after he 'killed' Acro is just really weird from a town point of view. He wasnt happy he killed scum, he was happy he shot? And kept asking for people to counterclaim him. That just does not come from a townie. SnB didnt do it. List of posts following the Acro shot [spoiler] Show nested quote +On March 31 2013 10:25 raynpelikoneet wrote:On March 31 2013 10:19 Hapahauli wrote:
Soooo, you're not a mason-cop? I am. I can also kill ppl. Cora / Keir 100% confirmed, as i checked them Coron n1. And yea, i killed acro <3 Come on and cc me. [spoiler] Clear emphasis on someone counterclaiming him. So fucking weird Show nested quote +On March 31 2013 10:28 raynpelikoneet wrote:On March 31 2013 10:22 Hapahauli wrote:On March 31 2013 10:20 raynpelikoneet wrote:
go on and cc... 112
BLFG
03-28-2013
06:22 PM ET (US)
Okay whatever. My power is that i can check if someone is in a mason circle. Keir and Cora are legit. That makes them town. Period. Why'd you fake-claim? Because there was the anti-ton fucker.... Acro? ::D why not=? Ok. Look at his 'fake claim' timing. That was ~3 days before the shot. Show nested quote +On March 30 2013 10:21 raynpelikoneet wrote:On March 30 2013 10:17 ObviousOne wrote:
Acro is also on the campaign against me that SNB was running from - that my word choice somehow espouses a mafia mindset. The only point regarding me I felt had any value at all was that I was putting in a lot of effort and he gave me the null stamp. I have to agree with Acro on this. A lot of your reads (even your case on me from D1) is full of "might or might not be". I don't like that, because as mafia you are already giving yourself an out by saying "i might be wrong but...". What I did not like about Acro's action N1 was questioning why/what was to be gained from looking at how the D1 lynch wagon came about. Funny that he wouldn't want that to be discussed when he was 100% absolutely no-question certain that Nisani was mafia for most of D1. How better to shut down that conversation than to discredit the only person willing to put in the work to do it? I agree with Acro on this also. I think most of your N1 "plan" was based on that sinani is mafia (which town can't know). That would be a lot of discussion worth nothing (or needed to be revisited) if sinani in fact is town. This is like 2 days after his 'fakeclaim' right? Reading this I would think that Rayn had a townread on Acro. The first mention of his scumread on him is Show nested quote +On March 30 2013 23:54 raynpelikoneet wrote:EBWOP: fail formatting. On March 30 2013 22:10 Oatsmaster wrote:
Rayn, get useful fast.
Response to Acro and Keir's case and my case and relationship with sinani please.
I went through Acro's filter. I could definitely see him being scum. I noticed the same thing that Keirathi bases his case on (saying we're not lynching marv -> making a case on marv). I missed it earlier because i thought i only argued with DI (and Oats?) about the "accusing marv will cause a shitfest, therefore he can't be lynched on D1" thing. Anothir thing i find out that points towards him being scum is that i notice a lot of similarities in his play that i do when i am scum. That is carefully pointing fingers all over the place. He comments on like everything that's happening on thread, but in most of the cases this doesn't seem to be leading him anywhere. I don't know how to explain it better.. And the "you can't lynch me anyways" is really really weird thing. If he is claiming a power i can't see that being a town power at all. So yes, i can definitely see Acro being scum. I do not think Acro and sinani are scum together. So high high suspicion on Rayn at the moment.
This kind of rings true to me. Why the emphasis on counterclaiming? And what is the explanation for the grack shot?
(Unless someone thinks we have two different town dayvigs). And why didn't he shoot acro before he could kill two townies?
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So this implies that mafia only have one factional KP. In that case, they most likely have a vig. This vig is most likely prplhz. Using prplhz's power as claimed makes little to no sense on palmar - he didn't give any indication that he was a VT. It makes a ton of sense for scum.
Alternate possibility: scum KP is 2 until one member dies, so when acro died their KP went down to 1.
Prplhz, why did you use your power for a non-confirmed only-sort-of check on scum instead of to give town a gun? Marv and I have both claimed that we are vanilla townies, did you ask kurumi what would happen if our role claims are correct and you target us?
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I assume that a power which refers to "vanilla townie" would count "vanilla townie who is also a one-shot medic" (or roleblocker, apparently)
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Okay two things
First, prplhz if your role works as claimed then how were you "unsure" whether you killed palmar? After the flip you should have known that your power would've delivered a bullet to the head not a gun. At that point, I'm pretty sure the logical thing to say is not "maybe I killed him".
Second, I don't buy the explanation for choosing palmar. You're saying you chose someone who you had no read on, just to see what would happen? And that to do this you chose palmar? That makes much less sense to me than the alternative, scum explanation.
Third, if we hypothesize that marv's and my roles were phrased the way they are because of the interaction with prplhz's role, what seems more likely - that it was done to make a town prplhz more powerful or to make a scum prplhz less powerful?
Okay that was three things I guess.
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Okay wait idea brain
If we assume that five scum in this setup is unlikely, then that means oats and prp are likely to not be scum together. So we can test both their role claims at the same time by having prp target oats. If prp is lying and oats is telling the truth, oats won't get the gun.get the gun. If oats is lying and prp is telling the truth, then oats will die. If both are telling the truth, then we have oats with a gun and we can tell him who to shoot with it.
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On April 01 2013 17:19 Oatsmaster wrote:Prp. GIVE ME A GUN. PLEASE. I WANT A GUN. To shoot marv. Hehe. Hapa, apparently he targeted smurf day 2 and smurf didnt die. So im assuming that a goon is the same as not having powers. Ok. Marv thinking that I am scum/not defending me, is a scumtell for him. In themed, I got mislynched by BH cause marv didnt defend me and I was asleep. In every single game where marv is town, IE personality/MTG, he defends me and such. Here he doesnt seem to care. Dude.  So at this point I want to shoot marv. Or sinani.
Scum claim?
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Hapa could be scum if he and I are scum together. That is unlikely for numbers reasons, as well as because Hapa has been playing townie as fuck.
Hapa could be scum without me on his team if he saw my post "Hapa did you take a hit?", immediately guessed that I was a medic and had protected him, and either guessed or found out really quickly that medic save targets get notifications but the medics don't, and then fakeclaimed that he'd been shot and saved. That is unlikely because (A) I find it hard to believe that mafia targeted 100% of their KP at Palmar, and (B) Hapa has been playing townie as fuck.
I could be scum without Hapa if scum decided to shoot Hapa and simultaneously medic save him so I could claim the save and get town cred. Tell me how likely you think that is.
So Hapa and I are extremely likely town.
Keirathi and Corazon literally have to be the same alignment. They claim their role PMs tell each of them that the other one is town. Since it is unlikely that there are 5 scum IMO, they are probably town. Additionally, while I haven't found Corazon's behavior particularly townie, Keirathi's has been quite town-looking since he was almost lynched imo.
Marv is confirmed town. OO's role says he 'gets extra information about the setup' but that he can't reveal that he has extra information or else he will be modkilled. He told us he knew marv is town, but couldn't tell us why or he would be modkilled. Seems quite clear to me. Also, marv claimed the roleblock on a night when there was no scum KP, and no one claimed to have taken a hit.
However, Prplhz and Ryan both have unconfirmed claims. Additionally, their claims are roleclaims rather than actionclaims that confirm their alignment (like my medic save and marv's roleblock).
Ryan's claim to have shot Acro would confirm his alignment, except kurumi won't answer this question from Keirathi:
On April 01 2013 01:14 Keirathi wrote:Maybe we can clear this up: @Kurumi:
On March 31 2013 07:22 Kurumi wrote:
Obviously, you are going to use that only once, because people are pretty angry that they are getting killed and rigging them more than once would result in your inevitable death
Does this mean that Acro *could* use his power twice, but that would kill him? On first read through, I assumed you were just saying it was a 1-shot power because using it twice would be suicide, but please clarify your wording.
We will find out more information about prplhz's claim when we see insertsmurfhere's flip. If he flips something other than VT or mafia goon, we'll know prp is lying; if he flips one of those things, we will know no more than we know now.
But oats, what makes that post a "scum claim" is the part where you say you want to shoot marv, the actual confirmed townie, rather than sinani, the confirmed scum. It basically means you aren't actually thinking about the claims and are instead just trying to throw out anyone you can as a possible alternative suspect to yourself.
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also just so i dont forget i'm throwing my vote on insertsmurfhere as well.
##vote: insertsmurfhere
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hypothetically, if a player's role description referred to "vanilla townies", would that mean "players whose role name is "vanilla townie"" or "player who doesn't have any powers"
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im here for about 20 minutes then i gotta go teach section
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you're the mason shooter right? did you check with kurumi that oats should get a pm informing him that you targeted him?
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Sinani. You are confirmed mafia. Thoughts?
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EPT
