RED Team's Prize - Page 16

On April 03 2013 08:58 marvellosity wrote:
Fine, but if he kills you and he flips town then we'll lynch him anyways, and fingers crossed they don't have silly KP.

Because if they have silly KP there's nothing at all we can do about it anyway.

On April 03 2013 09:04 Keirathi wrote:
rayn:

Do you have any penalty for using you insta-kill shot on someone who isn't in your QT?

On April 03 2013 09:03 marvellosity wrote:
prplhz didn't out his role until day 3. When could we have done anything about anything?

On April 03 2013 09:52 Keirathi wrote:

Fine, lets talk about this point (for the sake of argument, we're going to assume that

Lets say we tell prplhz to give a gun to marv.

If he's scum (which if you are town, you should know that he's scum), he just uses the scum factional KP on marv. Marv never gets the gun, marv dies. How does this prove that prplhz is scum or town? You, prplhz, and sinani would all still be alive tomorrow.

Or lets say he is town. He gives the gun to marv, and the scum *STILL* shoot marv. How do we know if prplhz is town or scum?

So that idea doesn't work.

Lets say we tell prplhz to give the gun to sinani:

First off, there are 3 possible scum teams here: 1) sinani + prplhz 2) sinani + you 3) you + prplhz

Now, in team 1, you have 3 possibilities: First possibility is that sinani is a vanilla goon, and prplhz does give him a gun. In whcih case, nothing happens, and all 3 of you are still alive tomorrow. How do we know if prplhz is scum or town? In this case, we would lynch sinani tomorrow to get rid of the gun, which leaves you and prplhz still alive, but only 1 lynch left How does the town know which of you is scum? LYLO with rayn and prplhz still alive.

Second possibility is that sinani is a power role, so prplhz doesn't give him a gun. Prplhz holds his power but says he gave a gun to sinani, and all 3 of you are still alive tomorrow. We lynch sinani and he flips a power role, so we know that prplhz is lying.

Third possibility is that sinani is a power role and prplz still gives him a gun. Sinani flips scum, and you and prplhz are still alive. We can't know which one of you us scum, but we can lynch both of you so it doesn't matter.

Team 2) 2 possibilities. Lets say sinani is a vanilla goon, and prplhz gives him a gun. All 3 of you are alive tomorrow, and we lynch sinani. He flips goon. We don't know which one of the two of you are scum. In the meantime, you have 2 nights to go using all of your KP powers on town.

Second possibility is that sinani is a power role. He flips power role tomorrow. Same situation as possibility 3 earlier, except you're scum this time, so you either have tonight to kill off all the masons, or you talk prplhz into getting lynched before you, then you kill off all the masons tomorrow night and win because of all your KP.

Team 3) There's really only 1 possibility here. You insta-kill Hapa, You shoot one of me/Cora. Prplhz shoots the other, and you use faction KP to kill one of the remaining townies. 4 people dead, Game over.

So out of 6 scenarios, 1 of them proves that prplhz is scum, 1 of them lets us kill all 3 of you, and 3 of them mean town loses. The last one comes down to LYLO with 2 un-confirmeds. ~40% chance for town to win.

Now, for a little extra fun, lets say we tell prplhz to give the gun to you, and you die:

Team 1) Confirms them both as scum. We hope there isn't a fuckton of KP, and lynch both of them to win.

Team 2) Confirms sinani as mafia.

Team 3) You and him would just go on a rampage. Exact same as the team 3 scenario up top.

So in one scenario, town loses. In one of them, scum is confirmed, but the game comes down to night actions. In one of them town wins 100%. I would say...~60% chance for town to win, here.

And lastly, lets say we tell prplhz to give the gun to you, and he doesn't:

Team 1) This is the confirmed scumteam

Team 2) Makes no sense for a town prplhz to not give you the gun if we tell him to. Discard.

Team 3) Same as all the other Team 3 scenarios.

So what do we learn from this little experiment?

Well, first off, if the scum team is prplhz + rayn, the game is already over. But that would put the scum team with a multi-shot mason vig, a blue sniper, and a vote rigger. Insanely OP, and hardly logical.

So the only real possibilities (that matter in any way) are the Team 1 and Team 2 scenarios. 2 of the 3 possible Team2 scenarios, town just flat out loses. The only possible way for town to win with Team2 is for prplhz to kill rayn tonight.

Team1 scenarios get a little trickier. If we tell prplhz to shoot rayn, we 100% confirm prplhz's alignment based on what happens (if he kills rayn and rayn flips town, then prplhz has to be scum. If he refuses to shoot rayn, then prplhz has to be scum. If he kills rayn and rayn flips scum, then prplhz is town [because otherwise it would be a Team3 scenario, and he wouldn't have shot rayn and instead just won the game]).

TL;DR - Directing prplhz's shot can't guarantee us the win, no matter who the shot goes to. But town's chance of winning (if we can't all decide with 100% certainty which of prplhz or rayn is scum), improves drastically by having prplhz shoot rayn instead of sinani.

On April 03 2013 10:09 prplhz wrote:
i'm giving the gun to sinani because he's scum and he could have a power.

On April 03 2013 10:21 prplhz wrote:
if you're town you should be pretty okay with him i'm not killing you tonight.

On April 03 2013 10:24 prplhz wrote:

i just don't want it to backfire so i'm hitting sinani. if you're scum then the game is for town anwyay, doesn't even matter if i'm lynched first.

On April 03 2013 10:40 prplhz wrote:
rayn i get that you have to think that i'm scum and i have to think that you're scum so please quit the attitude because it's just boring.

On April 03 2013 10:51 Keirathi wrote:

Because we don't know that sinani has a power. If you are town, you can't know whether sinani will die or not.

Rayn has already proven that he has a role.


Honestly I'm tired of arguing the exact same thing over and over and over again, and I'm tired of thinking about this game.

On April 04 2013 01:41 Hapahauli wrote:


Uh yah, what about it?

On April 04 2013 01:18 Keirathi wrote:
Alright so I couldn't fall asleep last night because I couldn't quit running through this game in my head, and I came to a realization:

I honestly think we are in a 3 scum setup

I'm 99.99999% sure that all of our "confirmed townies" are actually town. I'm 99% sure that sinani is scum.

But what about rayn and prplhz?

I'm not going to lie, I could sit down and almost certainly write a solid case about why either of them could be scum. But, gods honest simple truth of the matter is that I have a town read on both of them. Rather large town reads, all truth be told. Because as much as I could nitpick at little things they've SAID, their ACTIONS all point to townie. If either of them are scum they're just playing the silliest scum game of all time. Everything they've done points towards town.

So what does that mean, Keir?

It means we have 2 options.

We can 99.9999% guarantee our chance to win by following my plan from earlier. Prplhz kills rayn, rayn shotchecks sinani. Then we lynch prplhz/sinani in order and win the game.

Second option, assuming I'm right about 3 player scum team, is prplhz and rayn both gun for sinani tonight. Either game over tonight, or we lynch sinani tomorrow and game over then. The obvious downside to this approach is that if I AM wrong about only 3 scum, then we probably lose.

It's up to you guys, really. But I figured I would throw it out there for people to think about, because this game is draining my sanity and I want to see it finished.

On April 04 2013 03:01 Hapahauli wrote:
It doesn't mean that prplhz has to do anything. It means that you should convince us you're telling the truth.

Floor is yours.

On April 04 2013 03:03 marvellosity wrote:
rayn must die. Immediately.

On April 04 2013 03:04 Hapahauli wrote:
But there are two things I take issue with:

1) One of your primary reasons for not claiming was because "Mafia could use the information to their benefit." However I don't see this at all. The only way this makes sense is if mafia was planning to NK Cora, and will all respect to him, there's no way he'd be getting shot over marv, Kei, or myself.

2) Your appeal to me makes very little sense. You claim you have a town-wincon, but propose screwing over the town because you want to fulfill your alternate win-con. It's not very coherent.