EPTTL Mafia LX - Page 190
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glurio
Germany597 Posts
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
On March 07 2013 20:43 glurio wrote: Look at randombums case it's quite good. I have some issues with randombum's case. + Show Spoiler + On March 07 2013 12:33 randombum wrote: I don't think glurio is scum. Or at least I don't think he's scummier than a lot of people here. I've left this alone for a while because there's been a clear consensus on who to lynch and I didn't want to divert the thread, but I think it's time we lynched jcarl. He's been riding as scummy looking in the back of a lot of people's mind, but nobody has come out super strongly against him. His filter is short enough that everybody can go read it right now. Here are the things out of his filter that I would like you to notice and reach the same conclusion as me. That he is scum. Utter lack of commitment to reads. I've pointed this out before but, starts with a case on vayesh/vivax and drops them with minimal explanation. He then tries to push JJ because everybody thought JJ looked scummy, but now that JJ looks good his response is: + Show Spoiler + On March 04 2013 09:18 jcarlsoniv wrote: Yeah, I no longer believe JJ to be scum. After the RB claim and the subsequent RO flip, JJ looks pretty good. I'm not sure about aqua, but I'm somewhat inclined to listen to WF this go around. Jcarl reads will follow wherever the town is leaning. He will also drop down his "reads" with no backing whatsoever. Dropping a scumread on an un-counterclaimed power role (JungleJorge) IS NOT SCUMMY. This point from randombum is really sloppy. Dropping a scumread on Vayesh given additional information (and the advent of actual useful play from Vayesh, as I recall) IS NOT SCUMMY. And I don't think he ever had a serious case on Vivax in the first place. + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + On March 06 2013 11:30 jcarlsoniv wrote: Not quite sure at the moment. I was fairly sure that either geript or hassy would flip scum. I feel like there's one (if not both) in the following list: WoS, DrH, WF, randombum, Macho Man Need to relook though. He throws down 5 names in a game of 15 remaining players. One of whom has since flipped town. More importantly he doesn't say why. He says he will relook, but it's been over a day since he claimed he would re-look and hasn't come back with anything. Maybe because everybody keeps ignoring me and goes after people not named jcarl. It's even more damning because literally 2 posts after he puts + Show Spoiler + On March 06 2013 14:26 jcarlsoniv wrote: DrH himself (the one you've been so keen to buddy up to most of the thread) said earlier this game: Someone who says they are going to do something and never does it is probably scum (I may be paraphrasing). But he hasn't come back to do what he said he would do. Not actually making the reads he said he would is bad, I agree. By comparison, TestSubject hasn't even promised to give reads. TS has done nothing. This thread is pretty damn long and I can understand if it's taken jcarlsoniv more time than he thought to come to a conclusion (it certainly did for me). That being said I would really like to see jcarlsoniv's reads. + Show Spoiler + Hard defense of chezniu. It's self evident in his filter, but he clearly defended chezniu and hard. He claims hard defending scum is a town tell because only an idiot mafia wouldn't bus his teammate when chez was clearly next to be lynched. But chez's lynch wasn't truly set in stone. If you look at the final vote-counts http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=400335¤tpage=6#105 Chez only had 13 votes. And RO (known scum) could switch at any time. Furthermore if they somehow manage to cause a no-lynch then they get an extra night kill. If they are super lucky they somehow get people to forget chez and lynch geript the next day giving them another night with 2 kills. Point being, he tried really hard to save his scum mate, but the plan backfired so he goes: "Oh, that's not a scum tell its actually a town tell to try to push a lynch off a mafia and into a townie." I don't buy it. I don't quite know what to make of his hard defence of chezinu. He does have a point that chezinu was clearly going to be the lynch (geript wagon never really took off D2, despite the number of votes it ended up with - BH would have squashed it with fire if it got really threatening). WIFOM at best here. TestSubject on the other hand voted Chezinu and then contributed to swinging the lynch onto Geript, without unvoting Chezinu. All the votes were on one or the other, one of them was going to get a majority - why not just vote Geript? Answer: Doesn't want to look too scummy when it doesn't work. Or if it does, for that matter. + Show Spoiler + Contradictory It starts with: Willing to sheep BH on a geript vote. Then says after geript and hassy die Bold mine. Into He is now trying to make Wade look bad, when he has been willing to sheep him and stated that he felt wades reads were correct? I'm gonna be honest, I badly wanted to rub Wade's nose in the fact that he'd mislynched Geript too. I see no reason to think jcarlsoniv is scum simply because he has less self-control than I do. I believe I've shown that for every point in randombum's case, either it doesn't make jcarlsoniv scummy or TestSubject looks worse on the same metric. Understand: This is not a town read on jcarlsoniv. This is a statement that TestSubject is much more likely to flip scum than jcarlsoniv. | ||
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
I want one of two things from everyone who posts before I come back: 1) A vote for TestSubject OR 2) An explanation for why they're not voting for TestSubject (issues with my case, or reasons why they think their case is stronger Oh, and Layabout: "Aqua is scum LYNCH HIM" is not sufficient reason for you not to be voting TestSubject. I've explained why I think the cases on jcarlsoniv and glurio are not strong enough for my vote. As for the other mentioned targets today: Aquanim - I'm not scum WaveofShadow - I'd prefer not to lynch someone based solely on an association case, even with a flipped scum. MS I believe you've expressed the opinion that WoS is town-y. You're going to need more than some tenuous association with Restraining Order to lynch WoS. | ||
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JungleJorge
Uganda104 Posts
1) Mafia somehow thinks it's a good idea to RB vivax night 1. He posted he was shooting hassy near the deadline. Even if mafia somehow saw that Hassy was town. RB makes no sense. NO FUCKING SENSE. WHY ON EARTH WOULD MAFIA RB VIVAX N1. 2) Mafia shot VE who wanted to kill vivax. And Vayesh who wanted to kill chez. 3) N2 Mafia doesn't roleblock me. Doesn't roleblock the claimed vig. Instead roleblocks Aquanim. Shoots nobody. HOW CAN WE EXPLAIN THESE EVENTS YOU ASK? Mafia is being fucked up the ass. Vivax is being suspected by a lot of people. Me plus someone else I forget bust out a case on RO. Vivax never said he was suspicious of RO. So why mafia don't RB the claimed jailer nor the vig, and refrains from shooting anyone when they are getting roflstomped? Only explanation that would ever make any resemblance of sense is that they planned to fake a vig. For that they needed not to RB me so they could blame the missing KP on the jailer protect. Now how to justify the lack of roleblock on the CLAIMED VIG? Well vivax pulls of this ridiculous charade: On March 04 2013 08:17 Vivax wrote: Helvetica, Wade and you are obvious scum by now. Scumgame of your life but I uncovered your nasty plans. On March 04 2013 08:25 Vivax wrote: I've changed my mind actually, I won't shoot the Macho Man for not posting. If you are still not convinced take a look at what vivax says about prom and RO day 1: On February 27 2013 00:27 Vivax wrote: Let's get down to business then. First of all I would like to give you my opinion about the mayoral election: I didn't give it much importance. One lynch, two votes, that's it. A townie looking guy gets elected, either a townie looking guy gets confirmed if he hits scum or townie looking scum rides the wave to a mislynch and can shake off responsibility for it. My major interest laid in creating a nice atmosphere where we can have fun together and catch butterflies all day so that people who are scum actually feel safe to play like scum. What I've learned in past games is that people I read as scum got a valid reason to not answer questions when I actually read them as scum and called them like that. "Oh what you call me scum you idiot fine I'll ignore you" fuck that shit. To catch scum you have to let them feel cosy, when they think they didn't have the pressure to post for two days, then you will struck them with holy might knowing that they actually had the confidence to really play like lurky scum. When they don't know you will push for their lynch at deadline they will post more information, closer to their agenda than to the one made visible by townies. Since town doesn't seem to want to adopt such an innovative strategy, let's move on with standard play. Wish washy thoughts on flipped scum number one Purely based on these early game interactions I've become wary of restraining order/marv given his early dead serious tone despite the comparatively low interest into the mayor candidates. He subtly shovelled shit at MS for that awesome post and fucked off ignoring most of the early opinions. However, given his later contributions to the pardoner talk, dissuading town from following Toad's terrible plan, my read switched back to a more townie one, especially when he suggested that WoS should be elected, which I agree with. I am curious to see what else he will contribute. ObviousOne first serious post was when he spat out his geript scumread that made me suspicious of him, I actually liked his answer, very townie cause bold along with his lighthearted early posts. aquanim I have a slight scumread on, his early contributions consist of asking MS a pointless question and then saying there's a voting thread. He likes to pick on people like WoS and OO, who I have townreads on and are at best guilty of lighthearted and at worst clumsy play. Most of his filter looks much artificial, his answers to reads look forced. I advise you to analyse him properly and I will support a mayor willing to lynch him. Layabout could be lurky scum. If he's town I'd like him to post more. I remember him being an aggressive pusher as town in fruity mafia. JJ is a good lynch candidate. His attack on me for playing casually is a scum trait, and he quit pursuing me asking me a weird question about what I think. Well, after the last refresh (23:40 TL time) I see he's actually back to get me. Saying I didn't follow up after calling him scummy for what he did, too bad that I went to sleep around 3 AM and I'm spending 2:30 hours with reading and writing this post, so his argument is again scummy and not thought out. The argument he's used didn't apply to me, but also to Toad and some other dudes. He seems to think people trying to guess smurf identities are scum, as pointed out in my earlier post. And Wish Washy thoughts on flipped scum number two! Last on in the chronology and hotly disputed in the thread: Prom. There's a lot to work on with him. What bothers me about Prom is his unusual lack of confidence. He came dead serious into the thread with his RNG lynch idea, but didn't actually RNG anyone at that point, and even said he would lynch himself, which is a retarded thing to do when you know you're town. When people criticized him for his behaviour regarding the RNG, he quickly switched to a WoS lynch preference. Then he votes VE, who wants to lynch him. Again, a point towards scumprom, who would probably not want to get lynched as town, it looks like a subtle buddying attempt. Then again, it confuses me that he's been interacting in a way with VE that suggests that he would rethink his townread on me if just VE convinced him. That was after VE said he thinks I'm scum based on association with Prom (stupid reason). Trying to see this from a scumprom perspective, this doesn't make sense to me. A scumprom would probably try to convince VE that there is an association and that he's null or town on me to frame me for later. Instead he expressed being content with changing his read on me if VE convinced him. I am null on Prom given how he's been handling his reads of me. Geript looked pretty scummy to me yesterday, but since he's a newbie that might just be a consequence of that. His attacks on me cause of me being casual made me pretty suspicious, and his blabber about an agenda linked to that as well, but I don't want to lynch a newbie this early, they can look scummy as either alignment. In retrospect I'm not really able to get proper reads out for the early behaviour since it seems that scummy people seem to be scattered across the categories, but I thought I'd make an on-the-go-attempt to use that type of analysis. This whole post is fucking terrible, I can't believe I let him get away with it the first time I read him. If you take a read at the rest of his filter it's pretty clear he was asking for many to be lynched instead of prom day 1, despite in the end voting going along with the lynch without even "being convinced that prom was scum" in his own words. There is only a brief mention of RO in his filter, and he quickly forgets about him and never follow up at all. He is way more suspicious of other people, yet he shoots RO which wasn't even the consensus of the majority at that time. For someone who was so little engaged on day 2 he would probably shoot geript if he was a town vig. But why didn't he then you ask? He was cornered. Let's say we see only geript's green flip on the day post. Do you have any doubt we would rush to lynch vivax without thinking twice? It all lines up. vivax behavior isn't anywhere near what he does as town and is very mafia oriented in the moments his buddies were on the line. I'M FUCKING POSITIVE THIS MAN IS SCUM AND IF YOU DON'T SEE IT AFTER THIS RETIRE FROM MAFIA. ##VOTE VIVAX | ||
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JungleJorge
Uganda104 Posts
Because I'm actually good at this game, despite dedicating very little of my time to it currently. So yeah lynch vivax and thank me later. | ||
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jcarlsoniv
United States27922 Posts
On March 07 2013 20:07 glurio wrote: I still like to highlight my earlier post: So i want to lynch jcarlsoniv today. ##Vote: jcarlsoniv I missed this the first time around, so I want to nip it in the butt now before people continue to speculate. The first post I made, which people saw as me threatening DrH: I haven't been that useful this game. So, in an attempt to present some value, I was soft claiming a blue role. "My dying would be a poor fate indeed" was meant to grab scum attention. I was hoping to draw fire from them to potentially spare someone who actually did have a blue role. The 2nd post, which made people think I'm bartender: I was actually just getting bored this day, and wanted to straight up challenge WF. He listed me under candidates he wanted to kill (me and geript on that list), and I wanted him to see I wasn't scum. Admittedly, it had the opposite affect that I intended. @JJ: I actually really like this case on Vivax. I've been avoiding him because (as I've mentioned in the past) I keep seeming to butt heads with him and it's not doing anything to help me read him. This is something I can actually get behind. I want to see his response first though. | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
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Vivax
22082 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + On March 07 2013 21:40 JungleJorge wrote: I see no other possibility other than vivax being scum. Let's take a look at the coincidences that happened so far. 1) Mafia somehow thinks it's a good idea to RB vivax night 1. He posted he was shooting hassy near the deadline. Even if mafia somehow saw that Hassy was town. RB makes no sense. NO FUCKING SENSE. WHY ON EARTH WOULD MAFIA RB VIVAX N1. 2) Mafia shot VE who wanted to kill vivax. And Vayesh who wanted to kill chez. *snipped* _______________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1) It actually makes sense since glurio had reason to be afraid by me implying I would see his flip soon. I said I would shoot Hassy in the last minute. There was no time for scum to change targets. 2) VE was the mayor and hit scum with Prom D1, mafia can use NK's for many purposes, but taking strong townies out is always one of the best. You being selective about VE wanting to kill me is proof of your bad play. Why don't you mention those who Wade wanted to kill last if you think that it's a valid way to say someone is scum? 3 to infinity and beyond) The rest doesn't matter and I'm too lazy to answer all your shit, it's a waste of time we have to actually find scum. I'm confirmed town. If I was scum saying to be vig like you say, I would have simply claimed a RB last night and shot a strong townie instead. I shot scum and your argument is invalid, so retire from mafia yourself kthxbai. For those who want to lynch scum: ##Vote jcarlsoniv Must be scum at this point. Considering MilkSuckler's latest play and the fact that glurio and jcarlson seem to exclude each other as scum unless they hard bussed each other early we lynch jcarl. If jcarl flips red, which seems very likely, we should consider lynching MilkSuckler tomorrow. | ||
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WaveofShadow
Canada31495 Posts
I've got a couple hours or so of class right now but I'll be back. MS and OO I'm not surprised at but DrH voting me without even posting in the thread about it? Shame on you. In any case I'm not getting lynched today but I'll address your worries about myself in due time; as it stands right now jcarl is so scummy I could swear he just lifted off a sewer cover and climbed up out of the sewer dripping in scum. I'm glad my case actually did something for once though. | ||
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MilkSuckler
Swaziland597 Posts
Aquanim, The case on TestSubject893 hasn't swayed me. Maybe my heuristics are flawed, but, I still see honesty and confusion in his posts; so my vote won't go there. (2) Aquanim, I am disappointed you think the case on WoS is based on tenuous associations. As far as I am concerned, WoS association with RO; in addition to his scripted post are enough to warrant a lynch. ========================= (3) All I think with the numbers advantage we need to remove the Vivax WIFOM out of the equation sooner than later. So I will support JJ with a Vivax lynch for this cycle. If he flips scum, great if he flips town, we can all move on. If he is vig, hes just a VT now anyways and has barely been contributing recently. The important thing is, we need a majority = 8 votes, otherwise no lynch ##Vote: Vivax Lets all get behind this. | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
JJ is pretty much confirmed town. We are not lynching testsubject since he looks town. We might lynch gulrio since he provided nothing new today other than speculating that somebody is 3rd party which mafia are more inclined to do than town since mafia know whether somebody is mafia or not but they do not know if somebody is 3rd party. Nobody has provided good reasons for us to not lynch aqua. Scum KP was missing but we are supposed to believe that scum didn't shoot and choose to block aquanim over the claimed vig or the claimed jailkeeper. The most likely scenario is that scum messed up their actions and aqua claimed a roleblock for towncred. It's also strange that he pointed out what in his filter is supposed to have drawn the roleblock since he has no need to attempt to drawn a roleblock and mafia would have no good reason to try to bluesnipe with their block when there are 2 claimed blue and 1 dead blue. | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
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jcarlsoniv
United States27922 Posts
On March 07 2013 23:19 Vivax wrote: My defense against JJ's points for those who are bad enough to care about them: + Show Spoiler + On March 07 2013 21:40 JungleJorge wrote: I see no other possibility other than vivax being scum. Let's take a look at the coincidences that happened so far. 1) Mafia somehow thinks it's a good idea to RB vivax night 1. He posted he was shooting hassy near the deadline. Even if mafia somehow saw that Hassy was town. RB makes no sense. NO FUCKING SENSE. WHY ON EARTH WOULD MAFIA RB VIVAX N1. 2) Mafia shot VE who wanted to kill vivax. And Vayesh who wanted to kill chez. *snipped* _______________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1) It actually makes sense since glurio had reason to be afraid by me implying I would see his flip soon. I said I would shoot Hassy in the last minute. There was no time for scum to change targets. 2) VE was the mayor and hit scum with Prom D1, mafia can use NK's for many purposes, but taking strong townies out is always one of the best. You being selective about VE wanting to kill me is proof of your bad play. Why don't you mention those who Wade wanted to kill last if you think that it's a valid way to say someone is scum? 3 to infinity and beyond) The rest doesn't matter and I'm too lazy to answer all your shit, it's a waste of time we have to actually find scum. I'm confirmed town. If I was scum saying to be vig like you say, I would have simply claimed a RB last night and shot a strong townie instead. I shot scum and your argument is invalid, so retire from mafia yourself kthxbai. For those who want to lynch scum: ##Vote jcarlsoniv Must be scum at this point. Considering MilkSuckler's latest play and the fact that glurio and jcarlson seem to exclude each other as scum unless they hard bussed each other early we lynch jcarl. If jcarl flips red, which seems very likely, we should consider lynching MilkSuckler tomorrow. And what happens when I flip town? 3 to infinity and beyond) The rest doesn't matter and I'm too lazy to answer all your shit, it's a waste of time we have to actually find scum. What the hell Vivax? Take the time to actually address a case on you. Everyone is so eager to jump onto this bandwagon on me. I'm going to laugh so hard when you guys are sitting there with green blood on your hands. | ||
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MilkSuckler
Swaziland597 Posts
On March 07 2013 23:19 Vivax wrote: Must be scum at this point. Considering MilkSuckler's latest play and the fact that glurio and jcarlson seem to exclude each other as scum unless they hard bussed each other early we lynch jcarl. If jcarl flips red, which seems very likely, we should consider lynching MilkSuckler tomorrow. Funny how the two people trying to get me lynched is: WoS & Vivax no one else, (Dr.H was more OMGUS) Funny, JJ has a solid scum read on Vivax and I have a solid scum read on WoS & there is 2 scum remaining. Yeah, my vote remains on you Vivax | ||
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MilkSuckler
Swaziland597 Posts
On March 07 2013 23:28 jcarlsoniv wrote: Everyone is so eager to jump onto this bandwagon on me. I'm going to laugh so hard when you guys are sitting there with green blood on your hands. Im not jumping there. sounds like layabout wont either. | ||
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jcarlsoniv
United States27922 Posts
On March 07 2013 23:25 WaveofShadow wrote: ##Vote: jcarlsoniv I've got a couple hours or so of class right now but I'll be back. MS and OO I'm not surprised at but DrH voting me without even posting in the thread about it? Shame on you. In any case I'm not getting lynched today but I'll address your worries about myself in due time; as it stands right now jcarl is so scummy I could swear he just lifted off a sewer cover and climbed up out of the sewer dripping in scum. I'm glad my case actually did something for once though. Case? Not much of a case, friend. You have been saying I'm scum for SO long. It's only NOW that you put your vote on me? Only once your suspicions have gained traction? You throw these seeds of scumminess on me for days, but you let everyone else do all your dirty work. It's easy for scum to shed find "scum" in bad townie play. This is what you've done the entire game, and never actually pushed me until other people were willing to do it for you. | ||
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Vivax
22082 Posts
Layabout why do you think jcarlson is town, post arguments. | ||
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The Macho Man
171 Posts
glurios one thing he contributed is to think he is going after third party it looks like to me he has no intrest in actually finding scum.... thats scummy He is by far the best lynch. | ||
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Vivax
22082 Posts
Iamp jcarlson isn't trying to find scum either, prove me wrong. | ||
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jcarlsoniv
United States27922 Posts
On March 07 2013 23:38 Vivax wrote: Jcarlson would you lynch Mocsta today? All I see in your filter lately are defences of yourself and talking badly about Wade, you aren't pushing anyone. Iamp jcarlson isn't trying to find scum either, prove me wrong. What? Why the fuck would I want to lynch Mocsta? He and layabout are the only ones with sense right now. | ||
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