TL Mafia LX - Page 124

On March 01 2013 12:47 DoctorHelvetica wrote:


If Chezinu gets shot by a second dayvig and isn't scum then we have confirmed the other dayvig as scum. If Chezinu is the town dayvig, the mafia dayvig will never claim and can never use his KP and he'll be confirmed town in my eyes. Too big a risk to take as scum, since if he were the scum dayvig he would have the foresight to see that the town dayvig would just shoot him. Does that make sense? If he is the town dayvig he can do this to confirm his role and force the mafia dayvig into not using his shot because it would reveal scum.

Are we never going to talk about toadesstern today

On March 01 2013 12:45 jcarlsoniv wrote:
So wait...

DrH, if Chez flips town, would you be looking at grush to be scum dayvig?

It's something like this that would make it easy for grush to gain towncred cuz he can claim "I WAS JUST FOLLOWING ORDERS FROM DRH"

On March 01 2013 12:45 jcarlsoniv wrote:
So wait...

DrH, if Chez flips town, would you be looking at grush to be scum dayvig?

It's something like this that would make it easy for grush to gain towncred cuz he can claim "I WAS JUST FOLLOWING ORDERS FROM DRH"

On March 01 2013 12:47 DoctorHelvetica wrote:


If Chezinu gets shot by a second dayvig and isn't scum then we have confirmed the other dayvig as scum. If Chezinu is the town dayvig, the mafia dayvig will never claim and can never use his KP and he'll be confirmed town in my eyes. Too big a risk to take as scum, since if he were the scum dayvig he would have the foresight to see that the town dayvig would just shoot him. Does that make sense? If he is the town dayvig he can do this to confirm his role and force the mafia dayvig into not using his shot because it would reveal scum.

Are we never going to talk about toadesstern today

On March 01 2013 12:47 MilkSuckler wrote:

excellent observatoin

I am really surprised Dr.h was on the ball to try and clear Chezinu asap... was very well executed & clear visioned

im also surprsied Dr.H didnt post that reasoning before the kill went up....as it was generic and could have been issued at any point.

On March 01 2013 12:49 jcarlsoniv wrote:


Why are you necessarily making the assumption that there is 1 town dayvig and 1 scum dayvig?

Why couldn't there be 2 town dayvig?

On March 01 2013 12:51 DoctorHelvetica wrote:

I came home from 7-11 and it had already happened. I am not trying to clear Chezinu. I am asking that we withhold further discussion and wait for a countershot or counterclaim because then we have a 50/50 shot of killing scum and will at the worst case scenario have a 1:1 trade which is beneficial to town. but look at it this way, pro's and con's for that play from both sides:

Scum Dayvig Pros:
1. Confirms you are some form of dayvig
2. Derails productive discussion
Cons:
1. You get flak for shooting a townie
2. You are likely to get counterclaimed and confirmed as scum
3. If you are countershot, you die and the distraction will be pointless

Town Dayvig pros:
1. Confirm your role
2. Mafia Dayvig can't act because it would out him
Cons:
1. You might kill a townie


I think a scumdayvig also would be more likely to shoot his accuser than the target of his analysis.

That being said, I think it makes more sense as a town play. If I were a Dayvig I would have shot Toadesstern an hour ago.

On March 01 2013 12:53 jcarlsoniv wrote:


Again, why are you ruling out the possibility that there could be 2 town dayvigs?

Unless I missed something in the rules, that IS a possibility, it is not?

On March 01 2013 12:52 geript wrote:
Promethelax (5): geript, TestSubject893, Toadesstern, Vivax, Layabout
I wasn't arguing for town cred from the Prom pardoner push. My argument is that VE was in the lead (and VE ie honey badger does what he wants) wouldn't scum want to force Prome's bussing? Interesting that Toad shows up here too hunh?

On March 01 2013 12:47 Chezinu wrote:

That's was my point. And why I shot before being shot at. Its like Here mafia day vig shoot chez without any repercussions!

On March 01 2013 10:26 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
Having a bitch of a time on Toadesstern's filter.

A few things stand out to me which is that after his push on Prom (which was 2-3 posts that didn't go longer than a paragraph or two), he immediately started patting himself on the back and spending the rest of the day arguing with other people about himself. It was his idea to kill the Pardoner (a plan he admitted was bad when he thought about it pregame) but still wanted to discuss it and even push it at the end of the game.

What I don't get is why a scum Toades would vote for VE under any circumstance when he knew there was a chance VE would kill him.

Other than that, I see no reason to believe Toadesstern is really town in this game. He's quick to anoint himself as the star and most useful player in the thread but was absolutely useless for Day 1. Plenty of people came to the same conclusion on Prom without his help (I wasn't even aware of his case when I made mine) and he is more than willing to toot his own horn for it. Killing off the pardoner as well would only give him 2x the town cred. There are a few other little things, like his disinterest in being mayor I find curious.

He said essentially he'd only run for mayor if he could lynch a veteran, really strange thing to say. The fact that there are no bodyguards I now understand to be only relevant for scum because a well playing townie is a target regardless of whether they are elected or not. That kind of immediate survival instinct rubs me the wrong way.

On March 01 2013 10:33 DoctorHelvetica wrote:

Toades hasn't?








(crediting himself solely while discrediting the people who are helping push and pressure prom, interesting)




RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT









After the bus the next brilliant bit of analysis (grush although he provides absolutely no reasoning for it) is that we should shoot a random vet just cause mafia probably has a vet on their team.

Also the way he jumped all over MilkSuckler at the beginning of the thread is laughable. Look how he left the Prom lynch completely alone. He started it and everyone else did all the work pressuring Prom and Prom never responded to it. The really scummy thing that Prom did happened many many hours after Toades original accusation (I hesitate to call it a case simply by formatting). In it, Prom avoids attacking Toades or any of his accusers instead pointing a random finger at JJ before signing out.

On March 01 2013 10:37 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
notice also toades is not willing to give me ve or layabout an ounce of credit for the lynch, calling us sheep and patting himself on the back (read his filter) then after the flip he gives us some credit, that's a bit odd

also why would in his mind that confirm any of us? has he never heard of a bus before or is he trying to deliberately avoid that kind of thinking altogether

On March 01 2013 10:39 DoctorHelvetica wrote:


I more or less agreed with this sentiment from the beginning of the game but it's actually quite curious. As town, if you're playing very well you're just as much of a target whether you're mayor or not. From a scum perspective, the extra attention from mayor is unhelpful and it might be hard to explain why you survive multiple nights as the mayor. The bodyguards mean no protection from night investigations or vigilante hits. This is a minor + for Toades leaning scum, but on its own it isn't enough to really classify him as scum.

what better way to push his lynch and pardoner plan then to run for mayor anyway? nothings really adding up for me here

On March 01 2013 11:38 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
Look at Toades initial attack on MilkSuckler. It was of course complete bullshit and he later rescinded his vote but he immediately jumped on MilkSuckler for saying he wouldn't lynch a vet Day 1, an opinion that plenty of people have and is a very common stance that any TL Mafia player would pick up on. He jumps on him for "sheeping", an easy Day 1 vote for a highly aggressive player. For someone who played so aggressively in the first few hours of the game, it makes no sense for him to disappear from the rest of Day 1 and stop putting pressure on everybody despite the fact that he was present. He was clearly just waiting for the Prom flip to confirm him, he has more posts talking about how Prom would eventually confirm him scum rather than speculating on who else might be scum or trying to nail anybody else. Wasted his time.

The fact that he didn't even consider the fact that it could have been a bus is odd. Toades is logical. If he was town, of course he would credit himself but why would this confirm me or layabout or visceraeyes? If Toadesstern really thinks mafia would never attack their own player or let them be lynched then he is sorely mistaken and I can't honestly believe he would ignore the possibility so starkly unless he was deliberately trying to avoid bringing it up.

On March 01 2013 11:42 DoctorHelvetica wrote:


Not your posts but I did think that through (I'm leaving in a minute), he admitted that he considered the plan pregame and determined it was bad but felt it was important enough to discuss at length anyway. He ignores it for the rest of the game until the last few hours then pushes for it. It is a pro-town idea in theory but it would just be another reason for him to credit himself as the best townie of all time, I don't think it's consequential at all.

But if I personally decided a plan of mine was shitty (and I've had several) I wouldn't even bring it up, it would be a less productive discussion that talking about who I think is scum and I can't believe that Toades would just stop at Prom. No one else did, but he calls them the sheep? Heh.

On March 01 2013 11:46 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
This logical leap should make it clear

Toad before lynch - Layabout/VE don't get any town cred for supporting the Prom lynch because they just sheeped me
Toad after lynch - Layabout/VE/DrH are all confirmed town because they supported the Prom lynch

On March 01 2013 12:53 DoctorHelvetica wrote:

Quite possible. But because scum has no prior knowledge of the setup I don't think they would use this shot in response to early Day 2 pressure because fear of counterclaim.

If there is no other claim, I'm inclined to let Chezinu live for now but for balance reasons I think scum having 1 dayvig and town having none is incredibly unlikely. It is probably either 2 in favor of town or 1:1. Either way it would be a more productive way of dealing with Chezinu right now.

I'm not sure I can be accused of defending him when I'm asking for him to be shot.

On March 01 2013 12:57 jcarlsoniv wrote:


Ok...I think I'm following.

I'm not disagreeing with ridding of Chez. What I'm disagreeing with is the thought process that if Chez flips green, that automatically makes grush red.

It makes him look worse, sure. But it is just as likely that grush could be green and trying to jump on the opportunity to rid of Chez thinking he's scum.

Hypothetical:
Wouldn't a scum dayvig know that Chez is green, and shooting him would reveal that? This makes it seem, in my mind at least, that grush is town just knowing that he wouldn't out himself as a vig if he were scum.

...I think my train of thought it followable

On March 01 2013 12:57 jcarlsoniv wrote:


Ok...I think I'm following.

I'm not disagreeing with ridding of Chez. What I'm disagreeing with is the thought process that if Chez flips green, that automatically makes grush red.

It makes him look worse, sure. But it is just as likely that grush could be green and trying to jump on the opportunity to rid of Chez thinking he's scum.

Hypothetical:
Wouldn't a scum dayvig know that Chez is green, and shooting him would reveal that? This makes it seem, in my mind at least, that grush is town just knowing that he wouldn't out himself as a vig if he were scum.

...I think my train of thought it followable