Themed Game Mafia - Page 63

On February 17 2013 10:10 Mr. Cheesecake wrote:
Lol Iamp mad. Sup guys I'm town. What should I do besides read like 40 pages of stuff?+

On December 11 2012 18:34 Sylencia wrote:
At work, decided to check in on what Oats had said before he got lynched, and now this is where I find yamato to be rather suspicious.

A lot of posts made by Oats always ask about people's opinion on yamato. Why is he so intent on getting that information?






(Why does he feel the need to explain what yamato does when he is clearly capable of doing it himself)



The following posts after that are the ones where people begin to wonder - why did he say yamato was suspicious, then complete 180 and say he was town?

Naturally, Oats also did mention Kickstart a lot, but that's because he was pushing for a mislynch to happen so that is only natural that the majority of the time Kick was being talked about by him.

So here I wonder, was the plan on day 1 something like this, or did it eventually lead to this:

- Everyone starts the game, and off the bat people are suspicious of yamato.
- To help draw attention away, yamato stops posting and oats gets to work on a case against Kickstart instead, while also defending people suspecting yamato.
- During all this, opinions on yamato are given when asked as this obviously helps the scum work out who they should take out first.
- Oats continues his case against Kickstart, but at this point does the 180, and it really seems like he's now subtly putting it out there that yamato is innocent.
- Case goes against oats now and he is lynched.

In each of the days including the first, yamato has never changed his vote. A smart move, if he was scum because on the first day, going with the crowd would leave him with explaining to do, day 2 ended up with a no lynch, meaning there was a free kill for the scum in any case, and then finally we have day 3 - where him, Arn and I are the most suspicious ones of the group. Within the first few hours of the day he decides to target Arn, and we're left where we are.

The majority of this case is based behind the actions of Oats, and I think that he has left enough clues to find the other member of the mafia team. This is the way I decided to look at it this time, and it is the way I am going to vote today.

##vote Yamato

On December 21 2012 22:39 Sylencia wrote:
Alright, I've caught up to an extent, and I am pretty surprised to see so many people change their votes to Spag in the final 12 hours of the first day. At the present moment, I'm simply going through the possible ways in which we can use the vote count in our favour for finding the scum, since it's extremely unlikely that the mafia could cruise control to a free mislynch, there had to be some sort of bandwagoning happening.

Also note that this doesn't mean I'm implicating Corazon as scum, as what Omni says does make sense, but I'm not going as far as to say he is 100% town.

For the previous day, we have ourselves 7/13 (or 12 if you exclude Spag himself) people voting for Spag. Along the way, what we can take away from this is that there are scum scattered around this vote. The exact number is of course unknown, but to get the ball rolling it wouldn't be unreasonable to say there was at least 2 members voting for Spag here.

Spaghetticus (7): Aquanim, OmniEulogy, Mocsta, cakepie, Kickstart, Chromatically, shz

I've split the votes into 3 groups, the first 3, the next 2 and the final 2.

To start with the final 2 votes:

These final 2 votes were essentially making the lynch guaranteed, they could have stayed with their original vote, but decided to move over for their own reasons.

shz: Very willingly bandwagoned both his votes on cora and Spag, very little analysis behind the reasoning other than not liking spag's defense, a little shady in my eyes, since Cora has quite a high chance of being town, and Spag being confirmed town.

Chrom: Listed out his suspicions, but then also bandwagons onto Spag, only saying that the points were already raised by others, though there is a small explanation after. Still keeping my eye out, but isn't so bad.

From the middle 2, the fact this area is where the balance of the votes changes, it's likely that at least one of the three could be scum.

Kickstart: Hard to say, since it's a complete opposite to last game where he posted a lot and was very active, he did make a case, but it didn't really cover too much new information it was the same as what Aqua already said, just reflavoured.

Cake: Reasonable points raised, only concern is the really weird part in the middle:


Being the fourth vote, having Chrom move to Spag would pretty much call for a death sentence, since I was not around and Spag won't vote for himself meaning it would be a 5/11 vote count. Other than that, looks quite constructive and open with information.

From the two in the middle, I would definitely say that Kick is on my watchlist, and while I'm not entirely sure on cake, I am inclined to say he is more likely to be town.

First 3 - set the ball in action:

Aqua - While I don't agree that posting rationally is scum, I think most of the points found were legitimate, and could've easily convinced me. In addition, Aqua is putting his neck on the line changing his vote from Cora to Spag. Only reasons to do this are:
a) Legitimately believed he found the right tells
b) Plan on voting Cora (implying he is also scum) but hoping the votes didn't roll in backfired - only considered because the vote was dropped so so early on.
Plan b would be a really radical move to do, and I would believe in option A more, and so I'm more inclined to believe he has a higher chance of being town.

Omni: So confused. If you were adamant about Cora being scum why would you go and change your vote? In my mind it makes little sense because the way you voted for Spag made it seem like you disregarded your strong thoughts on Cora and just moved straight onto Spag because he didn't rebound from Aqua's claims too well. Just stick to your reads because the reasons behind your vote on Spag were way too speculative compared to what you thought about Cora.

Mocsta: Well thought out arguments, and during the day was bringing up a lot of discussion points, I like to think of Moc as more of a townie than scum at the moment.

Now - naturally this list might not actually say too much but I am going to say that it is VERY unlikely for there to be (7+Spag)/9-10 townies vote for an innocent player. There had to be some manipulation going on in, it is just a matter of finding out who.

If I had to list my two suspicions from the list - I would say I am suspecting Kickstart and Omni. There is something extra about Omni which doesn't feel right, I'm not completely sure what it is but I feel like there's something there.

I'll post about the non-voters next, but this one took me a lot longer since I got distracted by 2 games of dota..

On December 20 2012 14:05 Sylencia wrote:
Ok, I read the last few pages and at first I was liking shz's idea with the posting of the 'conclusions' that could be made if X player was lynched but as I was typing up some of the reasoning behind my thoughts I realised that it doesn't really make sense to do that - which is what Chrom said...

Corazon: Remember that while most of us are newbies, there are players who have obs'd a few games before this, and seen the inner workings on how scum players play, what newbies do and general scum reads. Putting it into practice is of course a lot harder though. But don't be intimidated by all that, just play your best game and hope for the best.

Now, for who I am going to vote for - at the moment my thoughts are actually quite split multiple ways. First, I said I wanted to vote threesr, but I feel like the behaviour displayed shouldn't be considered TOO deeply (but still considered of course) because while it annoys a lot of people, the statements made were mostly just noise. However, the unvoting and voting of different targets makes me feel uneasy, as everyone who he has voted for has been in the firing line at some point during the day, and I can't tell if it's a way to try pressure others into following suit by way of numbers or not.

In the case of voting for Corazon - this is the easy path for me, I can simply sheep and jump onto the corazon train but I don't know if that's the right way either. He was targeted early, but this was due to the lack of reads at the time and I think that scum have jumped onto the opportunity to get someone out easy, and honestly to me the thing with Corazon is that while he is defensive, he is still clear with what he is saying and is direct in replying to things which are targetted at him.
Downside is he did make a slip, and it most definitely could've been subconciously done and I don't know if I should overlook that or not - since I learned from last game you should go with the most obvious pick from the most obvious reads. I chose to ignore it last time and I paid the price by losing us the game essentially.

Fatchunk I still have no idea about, I read his filter but I didn't get much from it.

I really hate this, but for now I am leaning towards Corazon, since I don't want to be ignoring 'obvious' tells like I did last game.

##Vote cDgCorazon

I can still change my vote for the next couple of hours before I leave but at the moment this is where I stand

On December 05 2012 19:03 Sylencia wrote:
So pretty much at the moment, while catching up with all this drama that has happened in the past 5 or so hours, I've really become a lot more confused and a lot less sure who is actually scum and who is not.

Axle: Originally, I thought his acts of 'treat me nicely, I'm new' were actually quite suspicious, followed by really confusing posts which initially I believed were just posts to clog up the conversation and keep things disjointed. However, seems like as time goes on I understand what Axle is talking about less and less and now I don't even read the posts because it actually hurts my brain to try and understand the concepts he is talking about. Based off the responses you guys make to what he says, seems to be hard on you too. Basically, if I had no better read, I'd be picking Axle simply because I don't want to have to deal with working with an incomprehensible teammate.

Jidolboy: From what I have seen, all that has happened from him are a few answers and then a sudden vote. If I was to guess the way this game was going to go down, it would have the one person who is more active do the swaying, while the other lurks a bit more. As far as I can tell, Jidol has been the biggest lurker in the game so far, and then makes no effort in justifying what he has said. However, does that mean he's piggybacking onto CC, making him scum (assuming that Jidol is too)? Possibly, but probably not, if they were both scum, they wouldn't be picking out Oats I think, and instead piggyback onto the Kick vote.

Kick: This afternoon, I said that Kick is a townie because of his obnoxious behaviour. Rad and Oats continue the attack, and bring up rather relevant points, most of which I didn't consider (and also some points due to a past game which I didn't observe). However, at this point in time, I still believe that Kick is a townie, and so at this point in time I will not be voting for him.

yamato: More active than jidol, but still seems like lurking, and goes with the easy way out by voting Axle. Also noticed the disappearance after heat being applied on him but whether or not that's due to time zone, I'm not sure.

Now, between Rad and Oats, I feel like one is supporting the other, but at the same time, I also feel like one of them is doing so with the intention of swaying the other into believing they are on the same team. This round, I feel like I have to be voting for one or the other here. (Also, while I think that one or the other is scum, I do not think that both would be scum. They stand out far too much and have already essentially said "We are together in this fight", and that'd be some sick psychological tactics or some really newbie play if they were to be double scum)

In this case, I will be voting for Oats for two reasons: No lynch doesn't help us get any information. Worst case scenario means if we pick all townies to be lynched, we lose at the same rate as if we didn't lynch Day 1.

Between the two, Oats feels a lot more scummy to me. The main point in the end is the suspicion on yamato, followed by the 'scum read' on yamato, followed by a complete drop of the case against him, and then a complete dodge on answering why yamato was even suspected by him in the first place. Also, to me it seems like the case made when explaining why there was a vote for kickstart in the first place could also be applied to him.
1. At the time, yamato was still a suspect, so claims possible read
2. Notices no support for yamato's suspicion, backs out, and goes straight for Kickstart.

Naturally, I could be completely off track here, but I feel like the person who I should vote is for Oats.

##Vote Oatsmaster