EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XXXVII
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ObviousOne
United States3704 Posts
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ObviousOne
United States3704 Posts
That said, after saying hello here I need to sod off for a few hours. I'm about to run a raid so I'll be back in a bit to start my deep read. | ||
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ObviousOne
United States3704 Posts
On February 13 2013 10:57 Mocsta wrote: Hi being not involved in the thread, you might be the perfect guy for this. If you want to be active, can you please have a go at answering the below: Thank you. why have no wagons taken off this Day1? In short, what felt like the majority of Day 1 was policy talk. Even when people started to move past policy, Lynch All Lurkers was continually brought up. I understand that discussing policy is something that generally occurs in newbie games, and it seems to have definitely taken center stage here in the first 24 hours of the cycle and even bled further into the day as people were asked to clarify their intended lynches. If you(referring to generic town, not you specifically) are not convinced of your lynch candidate, don't expect anyone else to take you seriously. Vote with intent to lynch. Also: Push your read. You can sink your teeth into someone and still look for other scum. Ultimately the voting system lets everyone vote their top scum read. Bandwagons don't generally happen without help from town, possibly making some players reluctant to vote off their best scum read for a not-quite-as-scummy alternative. I realize this is a newbie game, but you newer guys/gals have to know this: you're going to make mistakes, bad reads, go with a gut feeling when it was really just gas from the chili you ate yesterday, etc. It doesn't physically harm you in any way, it just makes you wrong. How did we get to a situation where 5 or so people held 1/2 votes for a prolonged period of time. No overall accepted definition of lurker was accepted. There were differentiations between zero-post players and low-content players. Spring-boarding off policy talk, where very little agreement was met, no consensus was made and a policy without consensus cannot be called policy. In essence, a town free-for-all occurred. Did anyone create confusion in the middle of the cycle; perhaps allowing no consolidation to occur I can't say from my initial read that any one individual person is responsible for averting consolidation. You (Mocsta) seem to be one of the biggest voices, but garnered a very weak response to your call to arms. Again, this probably stems from the disagreement on terms. If one person thinks lurkers are 0-1 post players and another thinks they're "blendy half-page filter posters" or something, we can't really have an honest conversation. My conclusion is that there was no will to rally, with players more interested in their own scum reads, based on prior disagreements. This isn't absolutely terrible since it isn't a strict majority lynch, but clearly leaves room for shenanigans leading to wrong lynches when someone can unvote and change the final result between two candidates. Did anyone push for a lynch by cheap bandwagoning; or shitty justifications to "blend in" To be honest, I don't think I can look into this specific point tonight, but I'm tapped out on energy. I can follow up on this specifically later today or I can address it as part of my re-read of the game. No extra quotes, just writing from memory of reading from the thread. G'night. | ||
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ObviousOne
United States3704 Posts
On February 13 2013 15:17 Mocsta wrote: P.S. Your last game was like 6-8months ago according to profile; since it only shows town games: how would you describe your town play; as in, aside from being active what do you think we can expect from your play? Who better to judge this than you all? I wouldn't say I'm stellar at mafia in general. That comes with time! On February 13 2013 10:35 Mocsta wrote: warbaby, I think you need to get your facts straight before you start shooting your gun #1 I actually pressured Glurio. Ohh btw I even pressured your "apparent top" scum read Sylencia #2 My reasoning for Glurio were sound enough for you to even suggested you agreed I dont even understand your comment in bold; are you talking about past games, because it is referenced as if you are discussing Glurio. My point stands; you were the only person that contested my reasoning; but then state you thought he was "null" FACT: Nobody sticks up for nulls reads without a hidden agenda. (e.g. promote your bandwagon or scum creating confusion) Null reads are the ones you watch the most carefully, to see how they react to pressure. Your post above, indicates you were not fussed about a wagon on a variety of people. Hence, there is absolutely NO REASON to contest the lynch if Glurio was "null" the way you did. Your Day1 behaviour from start to finish have been suspect as. If I make an clear assumption you are scum: Its easy to see you tried to derail Glurio back to Sylencia, because you thought sylencia may have been more 'valuable' to town. Obviously this relies on a flip, so I wont jump to conclusions; but fuck me your actions are fishy warbaby. @Mocsta do you yourself think Sylencia was more valuable to town than Glurio? Consider this given any hindsight based on anything Sylencia may have posted thus far N1. What does Sylencia offer to town that Glurio lacked? Also, do you think WaveofShadow is trying to bait you into making association cases based on a town flip so you can look more scummy down the line if you're ever on another town lynch vote list? | ||
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ObviousOne
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On February 14 2013 04:16 Sn0_Man wrote: If there are 2 clear wagons, one on confirmed town and one on a null read, you get on the null read one to save the confirmed town. That is why Syl would change his vote to save himself. @Sn0_man I would have to go back through filters (currently re-reading the game backwards as I believe I just mentioned before) to check this. It's hard to judge whether or not "saving yourself" is scummy, but the best indicator to me is: did Syl have a read on Glurio before Syl was on deck to be lynched? Was there any mention of Glurio's alignment from Syl at any time? If it was town, I'll be very concerned. | ||
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ObviousOne
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On February 14 2013 04:10 zarepath wrote: Zarepath's Reads by Zarepath 9-Bit + Show Spoiler + Nothing to see. Looking forward to a modkill or replacement. Sevryn + Show Spoiler + I had a null read on him at the lynch -- he jumped on my fake case, added a little to it, tunneled glurio. But post-flip, he went very proactively defensive for it, saying that everybody was too focused on glurio/himself as the dichotomy. But HE was focused on glurio. Now that glurio's flipped, I want to see what his reads are on EVERYONE. If he was so certain about glurio, who does he think is scum now? Slight scum read on Sevryn. WaveofShadow + Show Spoiler + I see him as being mostly proactive with a variety of reads. I don't understand what his big controversial post quoting Mocsta and Sn0_Man was about, other than the fact they wanted to go after lurkers and their plan failed. I read him as genuinely trying to help town. Sn0_Man + Show Spoiler + His filter's filled with a lot of theory, policy, and meta talk. He interacts directly with a lot of other posters, and is very active. But towards the end of Day 1, he was practically begging other people to make cases he could bandwagon onto, finally settling on Sevryn. He is active enough that I don't consider him scummy, but trudging through his filter doesn't make me think he's absolutely pro-town. Leaning town, but not as sure as I used to be. ObviousOne + Show Spoiler + His assessment of Day 1 was pretty useful. I agree with Mocsta that we need to see his reads. Null, slightly to town based on his opening, but only slightly. Warbaby + Show Spoiler + Starts with general policy talk, his third post is a list, needlessly antagonistic to WoS, bunch of meta, insults everybody's mafia skills, tells people to mislynch him, prefers voting lurkers over scum, constantly asserts that he has no idea who the scum are, his final top 3 are sylencia, sevryn, then glurio. Is now focused on sevryn. I don't think he's as scummy as I've thought of him now that I've read thorugh the whole filter; I have a null read on him now, depending on how his case on Sevryn develops. geript + Show Spoiler + Geript was one of the only ones who really dug into my fake WoS case. He bought it, but only after he went through it and actually criticized a few of the points. He now has a case on Corazon that is at least original, and it's labeled Case 1, suggesting he has another case coming. I read him as leaning town. Mocsta + Show Spoiler + Super active first half of Day 1, went to "actively lurking" since after pouting about knowing when he's not wanted, and has done a lot of things that I see as pro-town -- encouraging two names so we can have clear bandwagons, picking apart bad logic, etc. I read him as town. The only other thing I'll note is that it's odd how little he's contributed (although he still has tons of filter). I think he's legit going for a different strat, but will keep an eye on him, obviously. Corazon + Show Spoiler + His Day 1 seemed pretty typical of his town meta, but he really pushed on his WB vote but didn't actively try to persuade anyone else; he just kept re-quoting his case, and then when the lynch was getting confusing, instead of asking for consolidation onto his TOP READ that he's had all day, instead he bandwagons onto Glurio. It's hard to judge any voting motivations from the Day 1 lynch, but this is suspicious to me. He gave a pretty town response to my WoS case, though. Null, leaning town. Mandalor + Show Spoiler + Mandalor's filter looks very scummy. Every other post is a list, the main thrust of his case on Sylencia has to do with blue talk, and the case for his final vote is not compelling at all. He just drops a random vote and checks out, doesn't even wish town luck. (To be fair, I did something similar because of time and RL constraints.) People's reactions to my vote on Mandalor were that they had town reads on him, but I'd like to ask you all what specifically makes him look town to you, because I don't see much. Reads SCUM Sylencia + Show Spoiler + Pretty vocal opponent of RNG there at the beginning, then his activity fades from there. He speculates HARD on warbaby's possible blue roles, not necessarily a very pro-town thing to do in public on Day 1, and that is the biggest contribution he made at all. He said he hadn't read very many filters, admitted to tunneling warbaby, then voted for him. In the end, he posted this gem: On February 13 2013 09:54 Sylencia wrote: .. What lol, I gave my reasons before and I'm voting for him to consolidate my thoughts on him. I will have to change my vote to glurio if required to stay alive though. Town don't change their votes in order to stay alive; town believe in their scum reads or are willing to work with other people's scum reads. THey certianly don't do so just to stay alive; lynching scum is more important than a town's individual life. This quote makes it sound as though his number one concern is not being lynched. It's worth going through all the filters, apparently, because this was the last post in the final filter, and I think it's the biggest, latest scum tell. In conclusion, people I think are suspicious and would like other's thoughts on: Sevryn Warbaby Mandalor Sylencia Obv and 9-Bit's replacement also deserve scrutiny. But right now my two biggest reads are Sylencia and Mandalor. I think people should look at my brief reads on them, read their filters, and I want to hear your own conclusions. Could I interest you in a Sylencia lynch tomorrow based on your assessment of Warbaby vs Sylencia and the self-preservation vote? You've interested me in looking deeper into Mandalor with this list, I'll be on that later. | ||
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ObviousOne
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On February 13 2013 10:02 WaveofShadow wrote: Well fuck, I would have been right. I'll post it now, up to you guys whether you want to believe me or not. + Show Spoiler + Thank you Mocsta and Sn0 for not making me explain this action myself: [b]##Unvote: Macheji ##Vote: Sevryn On February 13 2013 08:27 Mocsta wrote: Mr Sno_Man; i said this at the start of the game (I think).. and I think now is an opportune time to say it again. Policy Lynch is never meant to occur (even town lying can be acceptable at times - e.g. "Are you JK".. Why of course not.. (lie) Lynch all Lurkers is a concept designed to promote discussion and force activity. It is never meant to be followed through with. Think about the consequence. On February 13 2013 04:57 Sn0_Man wrote: Why are you voting for a 1/4 chance when you could vote for a 1/2 chance (glurio/sevyrn)? Plus, I'm of the opinion that it should be fairly easy to lynch one of glurio/sevyrn if you make a realistic case. I can't honestly tell which of the two is scummier. If I'm wrong, risk taken and you can all decide what it means after the fact. Town is fearless. Share your reads when you have them. Your win-con is TOWN win, not YOU survive. Anything you say can and (will) probably be used against you and it's towns job to see who erroneously uses it against you. Just look at the Warbaby fiasco. Somewhere in that mess is going to be at least one decent scum read. | ||
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ObviousOne
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On February 14 2013 04:43 zarepath wrote: Fair points, Sn0, but I don't see why he's proactively saying it. Clarify please. Who is 'he'? | ||
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On February 14 2013 05:38 cDgCorazon wrote: Why would scum bus each other D1? That doesn't make any sense. I didn't want to dive into OMGUS. If you want to now, go ahead... It's called playing for the long-game, but it doesn't work unless it's super convincing. TL Mafia LI | ||
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ObviousOne
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Regarding that second point about WoS, yeah I can see how sticking to his reads could go either way, so I'm still not leaning one way or another. I'll be keeping my eye on him. My gut tells me there's something going on between him and Corazon but I can't place it just yet. I would love to hear more from Mandalor, he seems to be equipped with the tools to hunt scum and work is getting in the way. @Mandalor, are you going to have anything resembling a weekend where you will be able to spend a bit more time with us? | ||
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ObviousOne
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Sylencia My biggest grievance that Sylencia felt "under pressure" with one vote. Whether that pressure stemmed from being categorized as a lurker by some or if it was the vote itself is not eminently clear. This somehow triggered a survival mechanism within: On February 13 2013 09:35 Sylencia wrote: No it will not, but as much as I would want to vote him - I might end up having to vote for my survival, since warbaby will not be gathering any votes. I'd like an explanation as to how Sylencia felt pressured enough to consider survival voting (unless I am completely missing something, which is possible considering the time I have left to get this in) with only 1 vote on him/her. Sylencia also claimed to have gone through several filters, but never gave any information regarding which ones, nor any conclusions based on that reading. I'd expect at least something would trigger asking a question, but Sylencia seemed content to tunnel WB. I also noted that the VOTE for WB came extremely late compared to the case. Tunneling is there, conviction in words is there, but the vote was delayed? Was the vote delayed out of convenience, accidental omission, or is the whole "survival" thing tied into this, or was it withheld to wait for a potential easy bandwagon? Connecting the dots here leads me to believe this survival instinct is not town motivated. On February 12 2013 13:20 Sylencia wrote: My only posts have really been against warbaby - thought it was assumed <.< I literally wrote "Uh oh" in my notes. | ||
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ObviousOne
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On February 14 2013 09:51 Sylencia wrote: ObviousOne: It was at the point where I had 2 votes (and somehow 2 votes was enough to have me up for lynching) where I was mentioning having to survival vote. I already explained it before why I felt that survival voting was possibly necessary for me. I might have missed the second vote since I was using Count Votes, but the intent to self-preserve is there and a common scum tactic when up for lynch. You don't vote to preserve, you hunt scum. | ||
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ObviousOne
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On February 13 2013 09:29 Dandel Ion wrote: ![[image loading]](https://twimg0-a.akamaihd.net/profile_images/2752616335/4b3ae0f60a4556ba1b2b4088d779492b_normal.jpeg) Count Vote:glurio (3): Sevryn, Mocsta, cDgCorazon Sylencia (2): warbaby, Mandalor WaveofShadow (1): geript Macheji (1): WaveofShadow Sevryn (1): Sn0_Man Mandalor (1): zarepath Not Voting (4): 9-BiT, Macheji, glurio, Sylencia Currently, glurio is set to be lynched! ~half an hour remaining until deadline. Remember you have to vote! I admit you are correct on the point of having 2 votes. | ||
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ObviousOne
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On February 14 2013 09:56 Mocsta wrote: I didnt accuse you of anything. Your listed under People need to give you a chance to speak (i.e. listen to) I dont think pressuring you this early is going determine your alignment. The other new guy is listed under "pressure" because he is yet to post. and we cant let him fly by Day2, being under the radar. I didn't say you had accused me of anything, I just love me some attention in this game. I'm glad you are enjoying my posts, I agree that enjoying posts it not alignment indicative, at least it's fun to read. We can effectively communicate, which is always a plus. | ||
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On February 14 2013 10:03 Sylencia wrote: There were 3 vote counts where I had 2 votes, 2 of them where I was set to be lynched. You are correct in that the goal of town is to scum hunt and not survival, but you don't really have a choice if it's either you or someone else who is going to die. I know I'm town, I don't know what he is, in this case it isn't about scum hunting for me but town number preservation. Of course there are times when you can take a bullet to prove people voting for you are suspicious but with 2-3 votes on the lynch target it doesn't give much information whatsoever. I keep an eye out for this survival kind of behavior thanks to one of my previous games. By this behavior, I mean self-preservation. It became a lot easier to spot last time because it was YourHarry doing it (I believe he's in my first and third/fourth game if you're interested in looking at what I'm talking about, it would be the topmost game with him in it). Saying "well I'm town" isn't alignment indicative at all -- anyone can say it. Just show us how town you are instead. Interrogate anyone but Warbaby. Hell, interrogate me. Ask me questions about other players. Whatever you need. | ||
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On February 14 2013 10:17 Mocsta wrote: Im taking a break; thsi is seriously fucked up (1) Who did mafia actually target? (2) 2nd hit: Vig hit or SK hit; (3) Your RB; town JK or scum RB? too much WIFOM for me. Be back later when head is cleared. Still have some time for a possible Vig to check in. I'm surprised there wasn't a claim given there was an hour window during which night actions were being put through, but that might just mean they're not able to respond yet. Going to have to assume SK if there isn't a claim in the next 24 hours. How do you think we should deal with the SK? I see you are ogling WB for it and he's gotten lots of attention already. Do you want to just lynch him and remove all doubt, or is there a way he can make it back to the green (or even just null) side? I feel I might be one of the few voices who wants to see what he can do before making a decision on him, particularly given how much time he spend defending yesterday. | ||
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ObviousOne
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On February 14 2013 10:24 Sylencia wrote: Ok if anyone can tell me I'm not crazy: Someone made a post about Vig shooting on night 1 and saying they were an aggressive poker player and even that was too much of a gamble for them. If someone could help with finding this post I would be grateful. Also for point 3 Mocsta: - Town JK: Since I'm being seen as scum, might've chosen me to block a shot but why would the scum team ever choose me to shoot in that spot, since everyone is already looking at me. Unless they thought I was a framer, this seems unlikely. - Scum RB: Sn0 was saying he suspected me as being either blue or scum. Knowing I'm not scum, they could possibly see that as being the best shot at hitting a blue and running iwth it. That's how I see the RB. There's a history of "people who like to discuss blue roles tend to have blue rules" here on TL mafia that I have seen. We can't read into it too much unless someone outright claims it or it is revealed at endgame, but there's one possible reason you were RB'd but not NK'd. On this topic, why the two people who actually were killed? WoS had some suspicion on him from a few of us not long before the deadline, and geript was suspicious of WoS... I'll take a look through their filters for the next project. A wise man once told me that dead townies filters get largely ignored and dead scum filters tend to get over-analyzed, so I'm going to see what I get from looking at them, see who their suspects were, where their votes landed, what they said after lynch, etc. | ||
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On February 14 2013 10:40 zarepath wrote: I don't understand how geript is a good target for either an SK or a Vig, but I've never played with an SK. Geript wasn't exactly a lurker, and of the bottom 5 contributors, he was a head above the others, imo. The only solution I'm willing to accept is that scum avoided killing WB to let the town hang him instead. That's about as far as I'm going to speculate about it. | ||
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I read through Sevryn's filter and the only thing from it I can hold against him is the vote on Glurio and possibly concern for the replacement of 9-bit. Sevryn also seems well-equipped to scum-hunt so I will keep an eye out for his case(s). | ||
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ObviousOne
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On February 14 2013 10:53 zarepath wrote: And apparently there aren't even MAsons, either. LOL. Okay, it wasn't clear why you were bringing it up, but it hardly matters now anyway, so moving on. Zarepath is hosting an AMA guys! Zare: If you were the deciding vote on a lynch between all the players in the game, who would you vote for right now? | ||
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ObviousOne
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I am Pops the Doorman and the Vigilante. I shot WaveofShadow. I thought he was scum. I couldn't get a good read on him based on D1 and I felt it would give me insight into his back-and-forth with Corazon and thus more information about Corazon. Haven't looked yet at Corazon in light of the flip but now that it's out, you know where I was going with it and why I mentioned it earlier. I don't believe in breadcrumbs (as you can see in the case of Zarepath, they aren't exactly invisible) and from what I've read/experienced in normal games, breadcrumbs are a good way to get yourself killed with a power role. I also didn't want to give scum a chance at finding a confirmed town for tomorrow so I just kept quiet. | ||
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ObviousOne
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On February 14 2013 11:50 Mocsta wrote: I have serious problems with this claim as TestSubject pointed out. Then there is: Now, i said @ 10:03 it is SAFE TO SPEAK UP, you are now VT note @ 10:23 ObviousOne says ##Vote: ObviousOne You just fucked up majorly Mr.SK Who else but me as vigilante is able to speculate on the existence or absence of a vigilante so confidently? I knew nobody would speak up since I was responsible for the kill, and if anyone had dared I would be an instant counter-claim to it. | ||
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Pops is indeed a muppet for you doubters, by the way. Guess the wrong person walked through my doorway (hint: it wasn't Johnny Cash). | ||
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On February 14 2013 12:09 zarepath wrote: Then WHY WOULD YOU LET TOWN ASSUME THERE'S AN SK??? Because it shouldn't change how you play? | ||
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On February 14 2013 12:11 zarepath wrote: Is that an offer? In exchange for another day of life, you'll kill someone we tell you to? You should probably judge that based on the evidence I dredge up, and not on me making promises for kills. After all, if people are decided that I am SK I'm not exactly sure how to refute that except to keep doing the job I'm supposed to be doing as town, as I have advocated others to do as well. On February 14 2013 12:14 zarepath wrote: And here's another thing -- you might not be SK. You could easily be mafia, the one who carried out the scum hit, and the SK hit geript. That's pretty easy to judge based on what I bring to the thread and how successful I end up being ousting mafia. Look at it this way, you either have to take me out now because of your suspicions that I am SK at the risk a faster loss with two town lynches in a row, meaning town play MUST be very successful (town CAN come back from two town lynches in a row) - or - You can wait til you find the three scum with my help and if the game doesn't end you just straight up hang me on the spot. | ||
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I am The One and I acted alone. There are most likely only three among you who were handed the red pill. You are going to need weapons. Lots of them. The agents of the enemy are among us. Did you see her? The woman in the red dress? | ||
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ObviousOne
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The rebels shall bow before the power of this fully armed and operational battlestation. | ||
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ObviousOne
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Just the thought of you guys wielding me as a weapon and the scummers shitting their pants makes this whole reveal worth it. Except for that whole roleblocker thing, if that's a scum-side ability (don't fucking claim it if you're town), which could shut me down right quick. Then again, that leaves mister tracker free to snoop around. | ||
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On February 14 2013 15:01 cDgCorazon wrote: Umm I don't see why you can't vote him off later...? I like where this is going. | ||
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As for how to play it after the tracker claim I really just winged it. I'm not the best of liars and didn't read the OP super well replacing in nor did I do any setup speculation based on my own role. Really think it could have gone differently without Test's claim but as they say, "They say it don't be like it is, but it do". | ||
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It's not buddying. I got the impression you were smart. Maybe I was wrong. | ||
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I think I can handle a question or two that you can verify against my SK flip if you want to run some things by me. I'm not really as invested in the thread and re-reading now that I'm for certain deadski but I won't mind helping town in this case because you're so damn lucky I was ousted N1. Short and sweet tidbits would be best, you can throw them all in one post if you want so we don't clutter up the thread. One-time offer per player. Expires when I die! | ||
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ObviousOne
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Or are you asking us or telling us it's a scum slip? | ||
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Syl Zare Mand ##VOTE: Mandalor For not living up to my expectations thus far. | ||
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A life for a life. My life for Warbaby's life. | ||
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On February 15 2013 10:08 ObviousOne wrote: ##VOTE: Mandalor Can't think of a reason not to. | ||
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Experience all that the Brown has to offer. For the Brown is like gravity. It is an undeniable truth. And the truth? The truth sets you free. | ||
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On February 21 2013 14:27 warbaby wrote: Dude did you read Chezinu's posts in the LIX scum qt? Chez is totally not nuts at all, and he's playing you like a fiddle if you join his Brown Brotherhood. I MUST DEFEND THE HONOR OF THE BROTHERHOOD! Shirley, you jest? The prongs are two, like the divining rod in search of water. One prong acts as key to the game. The other prong acts as key to the fun. Two prongs, used together; an artists' work. I enlist myself as thrall in service of the art of death. Should the method impair the madness, the madness will recede. Should the madness impair the method, the method should concede. For though the eyes of the Great Observer are ever watchful, the doubt must remain. We are players upon the greatest stage of them all. | ||
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