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On February 05 2013 02:44 Clockwork Hydra wrote:Show nested quote +On February 05 2013 02:39 SuckMyTopdeck wrote:On February 05 2013 02:37 Clockwork Hydra wrote:
Breaking News:
Aperture is more likely to flip town than scum imo.
"Oh no!" you might cry in despair. "But he's playing so bad"
To which I reply "bad =/= scum."
Yes, my brethen, it is true. If he is town, he's played bad as fuck. Like, really bad. Abysmal. Doesn't matter though.
Just think about the situation: You're scum with Cross. Who just outed himself as scum. Who is going to die easily tonight.
"town" has plenty KP left over to kill you, and then some. YOU HAVE BEEN CALLED SCUM ALL GAME. You are aware you played like shit. Nobody wants you alive.
Why do you still bother bussing Cross?
Why would you take damage in the face, just to redirect it to Cross? Your buddy? that means you both die tonight.
After all, everybody is just saying "yeah let's flip aperture" and gonzo goes all "I WANT FLIPS! I DEMAND DEAD BODIES FOR MY GOD ODIN!" all the time.
Would you, as scum, still keep doing damage, taking damage, like it's no big deal?
Maybe. It's not impossible. I'm not saying aperture is confirmed town or anything.
HOWEVER, the far more likely, and simple, solution is this:
Aperture is town.
He knows he's going to die today.
Since he's town, he helps flipping Cross, so that town has more KP in total. Excess KP that town can deal to somebody after his body is already cold.
I anticipate WIFOM arguments to come to counter this.
I anticipate all those arguments to be horseshit.
~dandel if he didn't bus crossfire, then people like you wouldn't post things like this Except, he didn't have to do damage. The gonzo said "I have an instant which can do damage to Xfire". iGrok's response was "I drew fork. I can copy that instant". He DIDN'T have to say that. He had NO reason to claim he has fork in his hand. Would he deliberately out that he can help killing off his scumbuddy and make it easier to kill himself? I don't think so. Dandel has a point and you're just sore that your evil scumplan of killing off a townie is now failing. /Acro
I'm not sore, I think you're hilarious. You're saying "why would a scumbuddy try to be/appear helpful in killing off his confirmed partner?"
uh, duh...
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On February 05 2013 02:28 Clockwork Hydra wrote:Show nested quote +On February 05 2013 01:52 Stutters695 wrote:
I can understand not trying to defend himself anymore since it is pretty much consensus that he's dying. Don't quite get his lack of pressuring any reads however. If he is going to flip town he should probably pursue his reads up to the flip. The silence makes me a bit more confident in him being scum but also worried he's going to have something game changing.
Rock do you honestly think I'm anywhere close to as scummy as Nova? What changed in the past 24 hours that made your list go from Nova, AS, me to AS, Nova=me?
CH I'm assuming you are the next town to go due to your board. Does my 3kp difference over two turns affect our killing potential over the next two days? Right now I don't see how it does and being able to be lethal myself forces either the scum to kill me or town has a free lynch when our kp starts to stagger. Honestly, I think the game ends tomorrow (if it doesn't today). T5, if it happens at all (and we fucked up bigtime if it does), will have 2 townies and 1 scum alive. Mafia creature will be 16/16, so forget about a T6 happening. That means you come out 1 damage ahead if we include T5, if you go the Gaea's Anthem path. Moreover, Infect doesn't play nicely with other forms of damage (you need to do the 10 poison counters all by yourself, whereas everybody can chip in on bringing life total down). You're only lethal on your own if you can guarantee 10 damage regardless of blockers (trample obviously helps). However, 6 regular damage is almost certainly going to be more help than anything < 10 poison counters (even 9). /Acro
Well the infect thing would be all ten counters from me in one shot from two 5/5s. What I'm asking is mostly irrelevant to that anyway. I don't have to play triumph if my target can chump the damage out and not die. I want to know the town's opinions on if that 3kp over this turn and the next will affect our lynching ability. We're at 7 left, we kill AS and nova were at 5. mafia mob can't kill unless AS or Nova is the scum and does damage, or someone doesn't follow the town plan effectively outing themselves. Thus we don't lose enough kp to not kill tomorrow. Then we kill someone, mafia kills someone (I'd ssume you), and we're at 2-1. Given everyone will probably be sitting at between 10-15 that day having more kp is insanely better for town because if we get to 1-1 town would lose, at best tie (unless the last toothltown has crazy good instants). The door of Destiny route opens a lot more options if I pull a bear tomorrow (3 5/5s in 2-1situation) and I don't see where that KP would be relevant in the meantime.
This is all of course worst case scenario but if we don't hit worst case we've won anyway.
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If there is no way it could be uncovered that he didn't help out with killing off the scum, I can see no reason why you'd cooperate in shooting your scumbuddy. If we said "attack him with your 5/5, or you're confirmed scum", then sure. But the situation was:
1. Xfire is going to die, regardless.
2. Aperture is almost certainly going to die, but town might not have enough damage.
Aperture adds to town's damage, further increasing the likelihood that 2 will happen, for no apparent gain. The only gain is that someone like Dandel comes along and says "wait, there was no reason to cast that fork". Ockham's Razor says that that is far more unlikely than that Aperture is town and wanted to contribute in killing scum any way he can, seeing as his deck has failed him spectacularly.
PS. We drew complete crap from the Bazaar. We can do 11 damage this turn.
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On February 05 2013 02:57 Clockwork Hydra wrote:
If there is no way it could be uncovered that he didn't help out with killing off the scum, I can see no reason why you'd cooperate in shooting your scumbuddy. If we said "attack him with your 5/5, or you're confirmed scum", then sure. But the situation was:
1. Xfire is going to die, regardless.
2. Aperture is almost certainly going to die, but town might not have enough damage.
Aperture adds to town's damage, further increasing the likelihood that 2 will happen, for no apparent gain. The only gain is that someone like Dandel comes along and says "wait, there was no reason to cast that fork". Ockham's Razor says that that is far more unlikely than that Aperture is town and wanted to contribute in killing scum any way he can, seeing as his deck has failed him spectacularly.
PS. We drew complete crap from the Bazaar. We can do 11 damage this turn.
It doesn't take many assumptions to suggest that Aperture would do what he can to try to appear townie, dear.
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Whatever, I don't have to convince YOU, because you're scum. Town Marv would have recognized the strength of this argument ages ago.
Everybody else: Aperture is town. Suck is scum. Act accordingly
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On February 05 2013 03:08 Clockwork Hydra wrote:
Whatever, I don't have to convince YOU, because you're scum. Town Marv would have recognized the strength of this argument ages ago.
Everybody else: Aperture is town. Suck is scum. Act accordingly
lol, the argument is nonsense
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why does this feel like setting up mislynches :x
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That is a short summary of my post, essentially.
I would swap "comprehensive" with a more ...accurate choice of words, but generally....
~dandel
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bleh, I'm stuck at work for a while longer tonight.
getting really paranoid though.. is CH trying to get rid of the people with the strongest decks?
I have no idea how strong everybodies decks are. But AS and suck seem to certainly have the weirdest decks.. probably setting up for monster combo's.
Happened to me last game too, and then it all turned out alright though 
anywayz.. crunch time for me now. bbasaic
Maybe AS is scummish, but definately not convinced on suck.
/zebezt
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Town Marv, in LIX, saw Stutters as town based on Stutters going along with a plan that would kill him. What would scum's reason be to go along with the plan? EXACTLY: to appear townie. Yet, he used Ockham's Razor and read Stutters as town. Correctly. Despite having him as a "possible scum" the whole game so far (until Toad pointed out that the voting was also strange for Stutters).
Town Marv, in LIX, saw Austin as town because he could have taken himself out of the mayoral election, yet didn't. What would scum's reason be to run against his scumbuddy? EXACTLY: to appear townie. Yet, he used Ockham's Razor and read Austin as town. Correctly. Despite Austin being (apparently) on the wrong side of lynches all game long.
Scum Marv is ignoring the same reasoning here[/b] in favour of saying Aperture is scum, because it will lynch a townie and probably prevent scum Marv from dying. Town Marv sees this kind of play and recognizes the townieness in it. Scum Marv doesn't want to admit that point, because he is next on the chopping block and needs more time.
Scum Marv must die for his sins.
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On February 05 2013 03:30 RockHydra wrote:bleh, I'm stuck at work for a while longer tonight. getting really paranoid though.. is CH trying to get rid of the people with the strongest decks? I have no idea how strong everybodies decks are. But AS and suck seem to certainly have the weirdest decks.. probably setting up for monster combo's. Happened to me last game too, and then it all turned out alright though anywayz.. crunch time for me now. bbasaic Maybe AS is scummish, but definately not convinced on suck. /zebezt
That's because you are a newbie, falling under the entrancing hypnotism of scum Marv. I suggest you read some scum games by Marv. For instance, Hero Mini Mafia, where scum Marv wraps town around his finger. However, scum Marv can be found out, because sometimes he is forced to push a scum agenda, such as now. Learn to recognize when scum Marv is not being a friendly townie and is not scumhunting and also not townhunting and you can catch scum Marv.
/Acro
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On February 05 2013 03:12 SuckMyTopdeck wrote:
why does this feel like setting up mislynches :x
Dat scumslip!
There is 1 scum left
If that scum is us, why push this lynch away from the easiest fucking mislynch in the world?
If that scum is NOT US, we are clearly not (intentionally) setting up a mislynch.
However, if that scum is scum Marv he would really really like [greenyou to think so[/green]
KILL IT WITH FIRE. OR ZOMBIES. OR BEARS. IN FACT, ALL OF THOSE
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On February 05 2013 03:12 SuckMyTopdeck wrote:
why does this feel like setting up mislynches :x
Dat scumslip!
There is 1 scum left
If that scum is us, why push this lynch away from the easiest fucking mislynch in the world?
If that scum is NOT US, we are clearly not (intentionally) setting up a mislynch.
However, if that scum is scum Marv he would really really like you to think so
KILL IT WITH FIRE. OR ZOMBIES. OR BEARS. IN FACT, ALL OF THOSE
Now without format fail
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I'll read that game, but I think AS is a better flip right now (before checking the meta). I'm really out of my element in terms of meta on hydras though.
I was thinking about the adding to towns KP thing but I saw it a little differently. A scum AS has nothing to lose.If he doesn't contribute to town kp, he's still dead this turn (the main question was who else should flip). If he does contribute he's still dead unless someone comes along and WIFOMs into thinking he must be town.
I could see a suck/AS double kill today, but if you're wrong and we leave AS alive his deck is probably packing some scary combos and that scares me.
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Anyway unless someone has a good reason to not go DoD I'll be dropping that at an hour to deadline (when I have to be at work, so I can make sure I get it.
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Anyway unless someone has a good reason to not go DoD I'll be dropping that at an hour to deadline (when I have to be at work, so I can make sure I get it in before the deadline.
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United Kingdom36161 Posts
On February 05 2013 03:54 Clockwork Hydra wrote:Show nested quote +On February 05 2013 03:12 SuckMyTopdeck wrote:
why does this feel like setting up mislynches :x Dat scumslip!There is 1 scum leftIf that scum is us, why push this lynch away from the easiest fucking mislynch in the world? If that scum is NOT US, we are clearly not (intentionally) setting up a mislynch. However, if that scum is scum Marv he would really really like you to think soKILL IT WITH FIRE. OR ZOMBIES. OR BEARS. IN FACT, ALL OF THOSENow without format fail
This is all kinda funny. If you are mafia, you can kill me first, and have aperture as another lynch after when you are
Amazingly wrong.
I will submit to death if gonzaw and others tell me that if aperture and I are both taken
Out, then CH can be taken down as well, because I can't work that shit out.
Phone posting hence terrible formatting and on this user, sorry
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Meh, if nobody wants to keep Aperture alive, we have enough damage to just kill both him and marv.
Tho killing aperture is really overrated and just killing marv is a better way to win.
~dandel
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Ah.. finally back home
beer time!
My thoughts on lynching today. I'm okay with lynching 2 people, as long as Nova is one of em.
I was getting a little paranoid about CH, but I have decided it's probably too much of a longshot that he is actually scum. Will try to spend my energy on other things for now.
Going to read through CH's case on suck, and see what I can find out about Aperture.
/zebezt
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EPT
