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[T] MTG Mini Mafia II - Page 44

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Stutters695
Profile Joined July 2012
2610 Posts
January 31 2013 00:17 GMT
#861
To expand on aperture I think he's more likely to be town not that he is. I need to see which hydras he suspects since I'm trying not to judge him strictly on the early game.
BinOnFire
Profile Joined January 2013
Laos123 Posts
January 31 2013 00:23 GMT
#862
Unfortunately, I did not draw Collective Voyage. I did, however, draw New Frontiers, the much less good version :/. I still plan on playing that next turn.

Crossfire's sequence of plays looks very anti-town to me (depriving everyone else of 2 draws to play beatdown?), and I'm currently laughing out loud about Braid of Fire. That's an awesome choice for this format, iGrok :D
Obvious Smurf. :D
(DontFear)ThePoster
Profile Joined December 2012
Guernsey584 Posts
January 31 2013 00:48 GMT
#863
So Stutters...what about Rock? You didn't mention him there.

/G
Come on townie. Townie take my hand .We'll be able to scumhunt. Townie I'm your scum
Artanis[Xp]
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
Netherlands12970 Posts
January 31 2013 01:00 GMT
#864
On January 31 2013 08:35 RockHydra wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 31 2013 08:04 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Attack Phase 1 has now begun. Remember that all creatures have haste.

ALL creatures, or creatures played during Turn 1 (as per the OP)?

Creatures played during Turn 1.
Hopeless1der
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States5836 Posts
January 31 2013 01:05 GMT
#865
On January 31 2013 08:53 (DontFear)ThePoster wrote:


Hopeless, I'd really like if you could comment on the stuff that happened in the thread so far.
For instance the whole Nova vs Suck thing, comment on Aperture and his play, what you think about the "at least 1 hydra is scum, who is it?" thingy, etc.

/G

Nova vs Suck
Colors are relative and not necessarily representative of strong reads


Aperture
That analysis post/link is awesome as far as scumhunting goes. He's set a standard for himself that needs to be upheld so I feel quite good about his overall contributions so far, and I expect similar in the future.


At least 1 hydra...
BinOnFire is my pick right now if I have to pick one, but I don't necessarily subscribe to the 1 (non)-hydra MUST 100% be scum. I'm rereading right now and grabbing dinner. Back soon.

~Hopeless
RockHydra
Profile Joined January 2013
Pitcairn222 Posts
January 31 2013 01:08 GMT
#866
On January 31 2013 10:05 Hopeless1der wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 31 2013 08:53 (DontFear)ThePoster wrote:


Hopeless, I'd really like if you could comment on the stuff that happened in the thread so far.
For instance the whole Nova vs Suck thing, comment on Aperture and his play, what you think about the "at least 1 hydra is scum, who is it?" thingy, etc.

/G

Nova vs Suck
Colors are relative and not necessarily representative of strong reads


Aperture
That analysis post/link is awesome as far as scumhunting goes. He's set a standard for himself that needs to be upheld so I feel quite good about his overall contributions so far, and I expect similar in the future.


At least 1 hydra...
BinOnFire is my pick right now if I have to pick one, but I don't necessarily subscribe to the 1 (non)-hydra MUST 100% be scum. I'm rereading right now and grabbing dinner. Back soon.

~Hopeless

Oh yeah, the hydra part of this.
Stutters695
Profile Joined July 2012
2610 Posts
January 31 2013 01:15 GMT
#867
Honest answer, this thread is moving really quick when I'm asleep/in class and not so much when I have time. I need to check his filter in general. Gonna do this post as a stream of my thoughts while reading.

First and foremost RH entrance feels town. He was pretty fierce about defending his 0/X creatures and seeing that they're artifacts I can see some synergies that make sense with that(memories of that artifact deck in DotP mostly). I'm not seeing the connections to a Ninja deck from that but I'm sure it'll become apparent. If he just chumps then then disregard this, but it felt town.

I really don't like his filter after that though. They're barely out posting me as a hydra, and their only hint of scumhunting is calling me out for lurking, defending XFs newbie to mtg post and a list that they don't say anyone is more than town to null in. Then to defend not looking at hydras when mathematically it is way more likely for a hydra is svummy as duck to me.
Clockwork Hydra
Profile Joined January 2013
Uzbekistan442 Posts
January 31 2013 02:04 GMT
#868
I was writing a play-by-play case here on Suck but the crux of the question is this:

Marv is pretty damned proud of his D1 status of never being suspected, and that is because he generally looks pretty damned townie on D1. Recent games:

LVI, got elected and lynched scum on D1.
PU, had some arguments, but was never in doubt. Took a back seat in most plays, because 3P wincon.
Hero Mini, early support on bussing his scumbuddy D1.

I don't think Marv has ever died on D1 and that is because Marv always puts in an effort on D1. This game, he clearly didn't (at least not at the start). The only other game I can find where Marv really didn't put in an effort on D1 is MTG Mini Mafia I. He was scum in that game.

The play-by-play I was doing just showed the lack of effort he put in until about 2/3 through the day.

Verdict: scum

Then we get this:
+ Show Spoiler [Marv's defense] +

On January 30 2013 22:12 SuckMyTopdeck wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 30 2013 15:54 (DontFear)ThePoster wrote:
I find these 2 consecutive "fluffy" posts of Suck and Cross where both come out of seemingly nowhere to then go AFK, both attack CH for (IMO) weak reasons, yet neither of them even mention the other.....weird, and that's an understatement.

/G


Hi. I said I found Cross suspicious, and told you something I noted about it. I'm not gonna rehash what has already been said by multiple other posters. Although if it would make you happy I can have a go at rephrasing the same things again (hint: I won't do this).

As far as I'm aware, I'm also one of the first (if not the first) to give the opinion of Stutters that his posts seemed interested and his empty promises mean nothing for alignment.

Simply enough I was never going to post a lot this game. Last Magic game I did not a single thing, so this is me trying some

As for Aperture, I did the meme because I found what he did hilarious in its hypocrisy. I don't know how to judge it so much right now, and he'll have to be judged on his long-awaited scumhunting after the 'profiling' of the players that he's apparently carrying out.

I don't really share my other half's suspicion of CH right now, although Acro is someone I'm generally extremely wary of being able to play a strong town game as mafia. I don't particularly like the condescending tone Acro has taken in several of his posts, but I don't think that has to be indicative of him being mafia.

-marvelbabe

This touched all the wrong keys. Marv is a good player, he knows when he has been contributing and when he hasn't. So why the hell bother making this post? It's a load of nothing in which he claims to have done more than he has, and in the next breath says he won't do much this game at all.

It is NOT a post I would associate with Marv as either alignment, so we have to throw meta overboard (as with most of his play this game): in that case I see no town reason for making a post in which you claim to contribute, apologize for not contributing and fill it out with a bit of fluff.

Verdict: scum


Marv's redemption (a bit). The only post by Marv that makes me think he might be town is this response to me "catching him out":
+ Show Spoiler [Marv figuring things out] +

On January 31 2013 05:21 SuckMyTopdeck wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 31 2013 05:16 Acrofales wrote:
On January 31 2013 05:07 SuckMyTopdeck wrote:
On January 31 2013 05:01 Acrofales wrote:
Okay, I'm done reading Bin and it was rather unproductive.

It confirmed to me that Oats is all over the map. The scum explanation is as above: he throws oil on pointless conversations, hoping their ignition derails town. The town explanation is that he's a newbie who has no real clue what he is doing. Honestly, the former explanation requires Oats to be quite a lot more devious than I have seen from him in previous games. In CT he was also bullshitting his way around and making stupid posts. I have not yet read that newbie game where he was scum and got lynched D1, which insofar as I know is his only scum game.

MG brings up some good points about SnB (not playing to his town meta) and Marv (pointless theatrics, overdoing his town read on Bin), which I find myself agreeing with. Also, his MTG play seems town motivated, although I don't buy that he'd play the deck any differently as scum. He needs his lands out to do anything, and giving town lots of creatures is fine as long as you can avoid them attacking you (by looking like a super pro-town plan maker). I would like to see more in the line of his posts at SnB and less in the line of explaining how pro-town his plan is. If his strong card requires him to have 22 mana, he'd need to get that land out asap anyway.

This makes me null, with a slight lean towards town. Now back to SnB/Marv.

/Acro


Ok, I am now suspicious of Acro. Unlike MG he knows my play and if he really thinks what I did on Bin is at all alignment indicative of me, he's either being stupid or he's mafia.

- marvelbabe


It was just something I picked up from doing my own cutesy QT talk. I might be overestimating you. What I realized while writing that up is that you used that as a reason for labeling him town. Now, you are a good enough player to realize that if you can make up a cute QT talk for why it makes no sense from a scum point of view, you SHOULD immediately jump to the conclusion that the same QT talk makes no sense from a town (hydra) point of view.

That should lead you to realize that that whole interchange is null, not townie. Yet, you went ahead with your blatant town read anyway. Maybe I'm overestimating your town play, or maybe you are scum who is using his prior knowledge about Bin's alignment and your cute QT convo is exactly that: theatrics. In that case I wouldn't expect you to put as much thought into it and you might overlook the fact that a convo between the two hydra heads about the topic makes equally little sense from a town point of view.

/Acro


It means you fail at analysis, and you overestimate yourself. As mafia, playing a card like MG played is obviously a pretty big deal, as it has large implications and certainly seems pro-town. There really would have to have been a specific conversation about it if they were mafia, I think.

On the other hand, as town, MG would just be playing this card because it's good for town, and the need to plan it out is far less.

To me it seems pretty obvious that a mafia Bin would have talked this over and made sure they were united far more than a town Bin. That is why I consider it somewhat of a town tell, not a null tell.

This is somewhat analogous to how in normal games, mafia players usually post and stuff by themselves, but for big decisions like who they're looking to mislynch the next day or who they're going to NK, they're going to talk about it.


Now this impressed me for two reasons: the first is that IF this was a scum play, it was fucking fast. The time difference between the posts is 5 minutes, which is a damn short time to come up with an elaborate story like this.

The second is that it makes a coherent train of thought and it seems as if Marv thought of this first, then jumped to the conclusion he came to, and posted his conclusion. When I then asked him how he had missed something obvious, he posted the rest of his reasoning, which fills in the gaps.

Verdict: town

He then goes on to finding Nova scummy for almost exclusively bad reasons.




SnB starts off terribly and spends almost all his time posting about magic-related stuff. I jumped to the conclusion fairly early that he is scum and I know SnB fairly well. He is not usually as useless as this. However, as scum he is prone to lurk and when posting, do nothing of value.

Verdict: scum


However, while I find his defense against attack terrible, I cannot argue that it is terrible at first sight only:
On January 31 2013 04:04 SuckMyTopdeck wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 30 2013 23:24 SuckMyTopdeck wrote:
On January 30 2013 21:14 Clockwork Hydra wrote:

Additionally, Marv evades questions with a reflection, while doing none of his usual town play. You know what happened last time Marv lurked through day 1? He flipped scum.



You best be providing some good evidence for this one.

Here's a fun-counter one, which I can actually prove: you know the last time marv was suspected as mafia on Day 1? Never.

-marvelbabe


lol yeah if we were scum theres no way marv would be letting me play like this

At first I just raged, because Marv was making such a big deal about how they are hardly communicating at all and the lack of a QT. However, if they are scum, they don't need a QT, they have a scumQT. Whether Marv would be able to stop SnB from posting like a tard is a moot point: the new question is whether they would really not sync up their stories, if they actually WERE communicating?

Verdict: town

His other defense against MG's case is pathetically bad, though. It's so outrageously bad that I am not sure what to make of it, because the case had some good points and they are all dismissed with offhand remarks.

The case against Nova is pathetic. As Dandel pointed out to me: it's as if Marv and SnB pre-picked Nova as a target and then started gathering "dirt" on him. They shrug off Nova's case as not indicative of alignment (it isn't), yet present one themselves which is even worse.
+ Show Spoiler [annotated "case"] +
On January 31 2013 05:03 SuckMyTopdeck wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 30 2013 02:27 Nova_Terra wrote:
I am not quite OK with revealing our decks, not for my own sake, but because if anyone decided to run life gain cards, they'd have little hope of avoiding scum targets. I'm fine with revealing decks, for instance my own, but I don't feel that it should necessarily be a requirement.


this is silly, someone else pointed it out before, but life gain is so weak in this format that i doubt scum would be worried, still that could be explained by him not knowing much about mtg, null leaning scum a little bit tell.

Not indicative of alignment. You even say so yourself, yet throw in a "little bit of a scum tell" for absolutely no fucking reason at all.


Show nested quote +
On January 30 2013 02:47 Nova_Terra wrote:
2 things before dinner:
I feel that ThePoster is doing a fine job, and has been attempting to do more actual scumhunting and pro-town things than the rest of us. Compared to CH, where I find that much if not most of the time he has been trying to explain why he feels that Minds Aglow is good for the entire town, not only for him. the second thing is related to this:
How is Minds Aglow particularly pro town? If we have to discard back to 7 anyway, I don't like giving CH 10 zombies. Why? Because if he gets 10 zombies before we can get anything that could even come close to rivaling that and he turns out to be scum, we're screwed. Thats like mafia having 30 kp, and we couldnt even be sure if he IS scum because he could just target "scummy" town players. kill 2 of them, and the games like, over. unless someone draws some miracle, that is.


sucking up to gonzaw, who has a history of being partial towards people who suck up to him (see last mtg mafia), this is scummy.

also misunderstanding the importance of card advantage but that's okay because not everyone has studied mtg theory, this is null.

not wanting acro to get zombies is fine but not a towntell or a scumtell/

Not indicative of alignment. None of it. Buddying ALONE is not a scumtell. It could be a sincere opinion.


Show nested quote +
On January 30 2013 03:17 Nova_Terra wrote:
On January 30 2013 02:50 BinOnFire wrote:
You must have missed my earlier post on the extended plan involving Minds Aglow. I'll dig it up for you:

On January 29 2013 09:45 BinOnFire wrote:
To further expand on plan 1)

Cast Minds Aglow T1, hope to hit Collective Voyage (77% if we do all draw ~10 cards), Collective Voyage T2, everyone has ~20 lands in play for T3.


Everyone drawing cards might not be pro-town, I agree, but everyone having upwards of 20 land by turn 3 is most assuredly good for us: even if the scum players can kill two of us immediately, it's still a 5v2, with a pretty clear indicator of alignment.

Durr. Completely misread Collective Voyage.
Heres the thing. I have a very low amount of basic lands, and from what i can tell, CH has none. what would this mean? Tons of zombies. Furthermore, there is no reason to believe that we would know who the scum are even if we did end up with 7 players left, and I would think that we may be in a similar situation (of not knowing who the scum are) then.
I would agree with using Collective Voyage on a smaller scale, but 20 lands each? I think we're begging for trouble. The strength of town is their numbers and collective majority, all we would end up doing is making it easier for people who make one slightly scummy mistake to get killed.
We have good minds here, lets figure it out.


what
what

"powering up town is bad because town can kill people more easily and they might be wrong" the solution to that is to not be wrong. it's okay to oppose powering up individual players if you think they might be scum or if you think they are likely to use that power impulsively to kill townies. it's not okay to oppose powering up town as a whole.

what
what
Weren't you opposed to me getting zombies for the exact same fucking reason? The whole thing is not indicative of alignment in any case.


Show nested quote +
On January 30 2013 07:03 Nova_Terra wrote:
Yes, i have a slight suspicion of stutters for his early posting, which is only slight as if hes at work it makes sense, and slight suspicion of crossfire for the reason already said.
I am not particularly suspicious of Aperture Science, as i feel they/he would be acting differently if he was scum. I do understand how grey's post rubbed a bit weird, but i think that it was less of a scum problem than a phrasing problem.


nice jumping in to share widespread town sentiment without providing any reasoning. like, i dont see anywhere above here in your filter you saying that crossfire is scum or explaining this suspicion.

Fluff = not indicative of alignment.


Show nested quote +
On January 30 2013 07:22 Nova_Terra wrote:
On January 30 2013 07:10 (DontFear)ThePoster wrote:
Not significant posting is indicative of them as players though, not of them as scum. In fact you'll find that stutters has never had a game of scum on TL but pulls this useless bullshit all the time. Do you think both of Stutters and Xfire could be scum? Who else do you find scummy?

P

The probability of them both being scum and acting like that is low. I'm more suspicious of crossfire than stutters. I'm currently looking at Marv+s&b's filter, and i'm seeing things that i dont like. I'd love it if we could all take a look at their filter, because i'm not sure if what im finding scummy is just (marv's?) typical posting style or if it is actually scummy. Also, there is the s&b policy post, which looked to me like a cut and pasted prepared "See im doing stuff!" type post. With relevant informatiOn added in after, of course.

ditto the above, way to not actually say anything. "marvs typical posting style" lolwut, there's no way you havent seen at least a couple other games from him, hes ubiquitous. also there's literally no explanation of what nova finds scummy about marvs posts so far. and how the crap was my policy post cut and pasted? except that its the same policy i proposed last time i was town in an mtg game?

Zzzzz, 2/3 of Marv's D1 was not following any meta and was just plain lurking. The only game anybody has ever played where Marv lurked, he was scum.

Your policy post was just flat-out terrible. It was beside the point, hashed together and useless. Who cares whether it's cut-and-pasted. How is this indicative of alignment anyway?


Show nested quote +
On January 30 2013 08:04 Nova_Terra wrote:
On January 30 2013 07:53 (DontFear)ThePoster wrote:
Well Nova, who do you think could be scum from the hydras? I.e who are you the most suspicious of them?

/G

Marv+ s&b

okay reasons would be nice

Nova says he'll post reasons from work. He then says work is utter chaos due to unforeseen shit. You then harrass him for reasons. Herpaderp. You could just have waited and if they weren't there tomorrow or so, then jump on it.


Show nested quote +
On January 30 2013 16:35 Nova_Terra wrote:
As i said, a analysis on suck will be forthcoming. Also i feel like many of those are self explanatory


lolk

Show nested quote +
On January 31 2013 03:51 Nova_Terra wrote:
Hey guys, popping in to give an update, had a rough afternoon and thought i might be getting fired from my work as my boss just left the company and everyone is running around like chickens with their heads cut off. I still find marv/s&B to be the most likely scum, and i will elaborate on this tonight at any rate. I really need a cold shower and some food right now though.


well this sucks we should wait a few days before we kill him. good thing we have to. also note that this is only an explanation for his recent absence not for his earlier terrible and scummy posting.



So in short, the whole case is bogus. Now making a bad case is not necessarily a scumtell, but SnB was under quite a bit of pressure to get some scumhunting done and it looks like they picked their target based on a combination of easy shot on someone who hasn't really contributed much and a bit of OMGUS. They then gathered "evidence" to fit the case, rather than the other way round.

Verdict: scum

PS. I know I just did Nova's defense for him, but he has already responded and the case was terrible anyway.




These are just my own findings from filter diving. Dandel is doing his own analysis (although we played some back and forth in skype). He didn't have time to finish, and can hopefully give you more tomorrow.

For now, you have Acro's conclusions: is this a blatantly obvious scum? No. There's some stuff that doesn't scan with them being scum. But after reading the filter from back to front, front to back and inside out, I am still fairly confident that there is something seriously off with both Marv and SnB's play and the most obvious explanation is that they're scum, despite the town tells.

/Acro
(DontFear)ThePoster
Profile Joined December 2012
Guernsey584 Posts
January 31 2013 02:18 GMT
#869
I think marv was "lazy" as town in Bureaucracy I believe?
He has lots of one-liners and takes a step back in town there.

I want to talk some shit with Prome but he isnt' around
I guess we will wait until Suck's analysis of Hopeless, which apparently is such a big deal to Prome lol

/G
Come on townie. Townie take my hand .We'll be able to scumhunt. Townie I'm your scum
BinOnFire
Profile Joined January 2013
Laos123 Posts
January 31 2013 02:24 GMT
#870
CH is scum.
Also hopeless wtf man,
why you so lurky?
Obvious Smurf. :D
(DontFear)ThePoster
Profile Joined December 2012
Guernsey584 Posts
January 31 2013 02:37 GMT
#871
I think I might be the only person in the whole game left out of this "CH is scum" fan group that has formed..

/G
Come on townie. Townie take my hand .We'll be able to scumhunt. Townie I'm your scum
BinOnFire
Profile Joined January 2013
Laos123 Posts
January 31 2013 02:40 GMT
#872
I don't think CH is scum. I need to have a talk with Oats >_>

/MG
Obvious Smurf. :D
(DontFear)ThePoster
Profile Joined December 2012
Guernsey584 Posts
January 31 2013 02:42 GMT
#873
You need to have your hydra head on a leash apparently

/G
Come on townie. Townie take my hand .We'll be able to scumhunt. Townie I'm your scum
iGrok
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States5142 Posts
January 31 2013 03:05 GMT
#874
On January 31 2013 11:40 BinOnFire wrote:
I don't think CH is scum. I need to have a talk with Oats >_>

/MG

Just check your scum QT. Whats the other name listed there?
MOTM | Stim.tv | TL Mafia | Fantasy Fighting! | SNSD
MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
January 31 2013 03:07 GMT
#875
You still aren't giving this up? What will it take from me to convince you otherwise, considering I have no MTG plays to make until T2, and that we can't check if our reads are right until someone actually dies?
Trust in Bayes.
iGrok
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States5142 Posts
January 31 2013 03:09 GMT
#876
On January 31 2013 12:07 MidnightGladius wrote:
You still aren't giving this up? What will it take from me to convince you otherwise, considering I have no MTG plays to make until T2, and that we can't check if our reads are right until someone actually dies?

You could post the link to your scum QT
MOTM | Stim.tv | TL Mafia | Fantasy Fighting! | SNSD
MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
January 31 2013 03:14 GMT
#877
When you ask so nicely, how could I possibly refuse you?

http://www.quicktopic.com/50/H/eH55vAZ5JTcd
Trust in Bayes.
Aperture Science
Profile Joined January 2013
United States151 Posts
January 31 2013 03:16 GMT
#878
My powers are not to be trifled with! Now, which Hydra is Scumbuddy part of?
We do what we must, because we can.
Hopeless1der
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States5836 Posts
January 31 2013 03:29 GMT
#879
On January 31 2013 12:14 MidnightGladius wrote:
When you ask so nicely, how could I possibly refuse you?

http://www.quicktopic.com/50/H/eH55vAZ5JTcd

iGrok!

On January 31 2013 11:24 BinOnFire wrote:
CH is scum.
Also hopeless wtf man,
why you so lurky?

Are you genuinely upset that I'm lurky? Like...if someone had to pick 1 word to describe me, that's probably the one.

On January 31 2013 11:37 (DontFear)ThePoster wrote:
I think I might be the only person in the whole game left out of this "CH is scum" fan group that has formed..

/G

Nah, I'm right there with you.

So...I've reread and haven't come up with much that I can report on right now, nothing strikes me as scummy enough to pursue at this point. I'm headed to bed. See you all tomorrow.

~Hopeless
(DontFear)ThePoster
Profile Joined December 2012
Guernsey584 Posts
January 31 2013 03:48 GMT
#880
On January 31 2013 12:14 MidnightGladius wrote:
When you ask so nicely, how could I possibly refuse you?

http://www.quicktopic.com/50/H/eH55vAZ5JTcd


lol

/G
Come on townie. Townie take my hand .We'll be able to scumhunt. Townie I'm your scum
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