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On December 31 2012 09:52 Chromatically wrote:
So Hapa, tell me again: should I make association cases before the lynch?
Nope! Haha, glad you learned something from our PM's.
A couple of townies were trying to put together scumteams, and I think that's a pretty faulty way of playing. Your job is to lynch the scummiest player, and then make the associations. Association cases can catch really straighforward scum plans, but against any decent scumteam, such cases are worthless. For example, I just finished a game (Witchcraft Mafia) where two scum members spent most of the game double-bussing each other.
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On December 31 2012 09:59 Hapahauli wrote:Show nested quote +On December 31 2012 09:52 Chromatically wrote:
So Hapa, tell me again: should I make association cases before the lynch? Nope! Haha, glad you learned something from our PM's. A couple of townies were trying to put together scumteams, and I think that's a pretty faulty way of playing. Your job is to lynch the scummiest player, and then make the associations. Association cases can catch really straighforward scum plans, but against any decent scumteam, such cases are worthless. For example, I just finished a game (Witchcraft Mafia) where two scum members spent most of the game double-bussing each other.
Shz and I had put together Cora/FC D1  but I agree, I've learned why it doesn't work now that I've watched this game. It'll be hard not to do it though >.< that and lists. lol
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Lists and association cases are the evil we try to erase during the newbie games.
They are the metascum of new players.
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Eh, I actually don't mind lists as much. What's important is that you don't use a list to summarize or just state obvious things. Lists with good and original analysis are very useful.
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On December 31 2012 09:59 Hapahauli wrote:Show nested quote +On December 31 2012 09:52 Chromatically wrote:
So Hapa, tell me again: should I make association cases before the lynch? Nope! Haha, glad you learned something from our PM's. A couple of townies were trying to put together scumteams, and I think that's a pretty faulty way of playing. Your job is to lynch the scummiest player, and then make the associations. Association cases can catch really straighforward scum plans, but against any decent scumteam, such cases are worthless. For example, I just finished a game (Witchcraft Mafia) where two scum members spent most of the game double-bussing each other.
Bleh - I tried not to make association cases as such, but if I hadn't just assumed Orange was scum finding Corazon would have been a fair bit easier.
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Hey guys it was fun for me but it was a lot more work than i expected to do. When defending my self I was always trying to put myself in a townie shoes and make up some bs about why I acted certain ways. god, getting out of that shz vote was hard and probably didnt work. Really hard to make fake scum cases too.
Kick was like, at :58 before the lynch of him or shz: FC GET IN THERE AND CHANGE YOUR VOTE. so I did. I thought it'd be a no-lynch or at least maybe a lynch for shz, but i was also trusting kick to know better cause he'd played before. Hilarious in hindsight.
GG Cora thanks for carrying us. sorry for sucking.
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On December 31 2012 10:40 FatChunk wrote:
Hey guys it was fun for me but it was a lot more work than i expected to do. When defending my self I was always trying to put myself in a townie shoes and make up some bs about why I acted certain ways. god, getting out of that shz vote was hard and probably didnt work. Really hard to make fake scum cases too.
Kick was like, at :58 before the lynch of him or shz: FC GET IN THERE AND CHANGE YOUR VOTE. so I did. I thought it'd be a no-lynch or at least maybe a lynch for shz, but i was also trusting kick to know better cause he'd played before. Hilarious in hindsight.
GG Cora thanks for carrying us. sorry for sucking.
The bolded is really interesting, and I think we both realize that trying to save Kick wasn't so good of an idea in hindsight.
As scum, you shouldn't be afraid to bus liabilities to improve your own image. Kickstart was very clearly a liability - he looked awful to most of the thread, and he was the leading lynch candidate for most of the day. At a certain point, you have to know when to cut your losses. Often the best thing you can do with a player like that is to bus him decisively and use the opportunity to improve your own image.
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Wtf? My guys lost 
What happened? cora you would have survived long why did you claim town rb?
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No, they would've become suspicious of me because I wasn't voting for FC. The thing is they all thought I was defending FC when in all honesty I was trying to set myself up to bus FC tomorrow.
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But....werent you like 100% sure there was a town rb who would cc you?
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United Kingdom36161 Posts
huh holy shit this ended. i'll comment tomorrow. wp town
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On December 31 2012 11:09 gonzaw wrote:
But....werent you like 100% sure there was a town rb who would cc you?
Yeah, I wasn't thinking there. It was a split decision, and it turned out to be a terrible one.
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On December 31 2012 09:57 shz wrote:
It is actually incredible how you got nearly lynched on D1 and became basically town for us after that.
@Chrome I was kinda hoping you to be scum. At one point I was so mad at you.
Surprisingly common, Whether you are town or scum, if you come under the spotlight day 1 and live through it people will ignore you for a couple of days.
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On December 31 2012 12:12 Clarity_nl wrote:Show nested quote +On December 31 2012 09:57 shz wrote:
It is actually incredible how you got nearly lynched on D1 and became basically town for us after that.
@Chrome I was kinda hoping you to be scum. At one point I was so mad at you. Surprisingly common, Whether you are town or scum, if you come under the spotlight day 1 and live through it people will ignore you for a couple of days.
Way to rain on my parade =(
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On December 31 2012 12:12 Clarity_nl wrote:Show nested quote +On December 31 2012 09:57 shz wrote:
It is actually incredible how you got nearly lynched on D1 and became basically town for us after that.
@Chrome I was kinda hoping you to be scum. At one point I was so mad at you. Surprisingly common, Whether you are town or scum, if you come under the spotlight day 1 and live through it people will ignore you for a couple of days.
Super disagree with this. Day 1 image can dog a player for a long time.
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Depends.
If you do it like Corazon, people will get a townread on you, by the good old so-scummy-that-can't-be-scum rule.
If you're just scummy on normal levels, then you'll keep being scummy forEVER
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On December 31 2012 12:28 Dandel Ion wrote:
If you're just scummy on normal levels, then you'll keep being scummy forEVER
see hero mafia
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I don't know if we can hope to have Orange back in here to discuss what he was doing.
In any case went back to look over what he did, and am sharing this analysis for the lessons to be taken from it -- we are all trying to learn in this game after all.
Poor Orange, I really hope this game doesn't scar him for life and deter him from trying again in the future.
Note: Hindsight is 20/20. This is not intended to assign blame. (We won, after all.)
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So, I had a newbie cop read on him for the way he was behaving D1 -- patient yet uncertain, he gave me a vibe of waiting for something "concrete" and "convincing".
On December 23 2012 21:16 Orangeremi wrote:
However, none of my suspicions from then compare with how convinced I am with my D2 vote. After viewing Chrom's evidence towards Omni and then reviewing it myself, there's no way he's town.
But he got really screwed over by the frame on OmniEulogy -- a wicked good play by scum right there.
He does his due diligence based on mocsta's association case and his investigation result, but is cautious about the weakness of the case:
+ Show Spoiler +On December 22 2012 14:01 Orangeremi wrote:
@cake I'm interested in his theory regarding you+OE+Chrom scum team, but I don't know how much credibility it has.
And he definitely smelled the same thing that I did re:kickstart blue hunting:
+ Show Spoiler +On December 22 2012 17:38 Orangeremi wrote:
The one thing I'm trying to figure out is his reaction to cake 'claiming blue role' and the possible implications. It's a very plausible towny reaction, but could it be something else?
But he had to test the veracity of his investigation. Hence his reaction to the D2 mislynch:
On December 24 2012 17:51 Orangeremi wrote:
I'm flabbergasted that Omni turned town. This really puts a wrench in things for me.
I did take note of how this alludes to mocsta's posts
+ Show Spoiler +On December 21 2012 22:21 Mocsta wrote:I do not mean this to be facetious; however I was genuinely not expecting that type of post from you. Its thrown a spanner in the works for me. I am going to have to digest this before jumping to a conclusion. Man I wish this wasn't Friday night, will look into it when I get home On December 21 2012 23:26 Mocsta wrote:Show nested quote +On December 21 2012 21:23 Orangeremi wrote:
Couldn't the same be said for scum and possible blue roles? And what's the difference between information revealed earlier as opposed to later? It's revealed regardless. I do not mean this to be facetious; however I was genuinely not expecting that type of post from you. Its thrown a spanner in the works for me. I am going to have to digest this before jumping to a conclusion. [Sarcasm is not intended]
I dismissed it as WIFOM, but was he trying to softclaim blue?
In any event, by this time he had been relying too much on his PR and had not tried hard enough to do basic scumhunting in thread, and so has nothing to work with:
+ Show Spoiler +On December 24 2012 20:43 Orangeremi wrote:Chrom's going to come under pressure (understandably) but I do think we need to pressure the less active players come next Day phase. I'm really thrown for a loop right now and don't know what to think. Looking over filters and after recent events I'm stumped  On December 24 2012 23:15 Orangeremi wrote:
I'm not really looking to throw names out there if I'm not confident after that lynch. I'm sticking with my statement that lurkers need to come out before anything else.
I think the existence of framer drove his reverse psychology processes into overdrive starting around this time (which I noted in my town hypothesis on him)
Fatal error: still does not do any useful scumhunting over the extra-long night phase.
AND gets roleblocked by Chrom. Must be feeling really screwed over about now.
This is what happens when you start looking scummy from not scumhunting at all!
His gut feel is so close here!:
+ Show Spoiler +On December 28 2012 01:59 Orangeremi wrote:
I'm really curious if that's the best course of action, Corazon. You seem to just have a hit list that ultimately will lessen the size of town more than anything. Doesn't seem all too beneficial to me.
The overwhelming vote count for Kick right now leads me to believe the scum are just hopping on his wagon. If he was actually scum, wouldn't the mafia would find another player to try and start a wagon for to save him. But that isn't happening. I think we need to reevaluate.
In the meantime I'm going back to one of my initial reads.
##Vote: FatChunk
But:
+ Show Spoiler +On December 28 2012 02:06 Orangeremi wrote:
Well we've just fucked ourselves by not finding any scum thus far and at this point we don't have many options. We cannot afford another townie loss. We need to be certain or very close to certain that our next vote is mafia.
Y U NO SCUMHUNT?
His guts were right, but I think he could have been leaning too much on the cop power as a crutch.
So all he has are gut feelings on Kick, FatChunk, shz, and to a lesser extent, corazon.
This sums up what I think was going on through his head as he switches votes -- muddled by reverse psych speculation:
+ Show Spoiler +On December 30 2012 01:14 cakepie wrote:
When the voteswitch happens, he still really does not think scum would bus scum kick, and is convinced therefore that kick is town. But numerically, the only way to avoid kick being lynched was to hope that the alternative shz wagon would work -- the FC wagon, which he would have preferred, certainly wasn't going anywhere. This explains his exasperation at Chrom for moving from FC to shz.
Which is a terrible shame, really, since it was the last straw that attracted all the attention onto himself, in addition to his incredible lack of scumhunting.
He calls attention to the framer flip:
On December 28 2012 09:07 Orangeremi wrote: And tries to confirm a cop in play:
On December 28 2012 09:48 Orangeremi wrote:Show nested quote +On December 28 2012 09:45 Sylencia wrote:
Having a framer in play suggests there's a Cop in play, right? That would only make sense It goes unnoticed, and would be WIFOM anyway.
On December 28 2012 10:01 Orangeremi wrote:
We have a night to go through, and the options to lynch will shrink. It might be simpler to decide then.
"Hey, without a framer around, I'll be able to do whatever I want and carry town to victory, right?"
Wrong.
Incredibly on point here:
On December 28 2012 11:44 Orangeremi wrote:
I'm not that stupid. I don't think any of the combinations are correct, but FC is most likely. But his partner ?
As we now all know, he knew that he could not simply check FC, and then come out with his investigation on FC as basis to lynch FC. He did not have anything to back the case up with, and did not have the towncred to pull it off, plus he risked being killed in the nightphase for his cop claim.
So he actually did the best that he could: try to find FC's scum partner:
+ Show Spoiler +On December 28 2012 22:20 Orangeremi wrote:Show nested quote +On December 28 2012 12:12 cakepie wrote:
@orange: Assume not all scum is stupidly trying to swing onto shz. Who is scum initiating/moving with Kickstart onto shz: chrom, FC, or neither? And where in the Kick wagon is the remaining scum hiding?
If both FC and chrom are misguided townies, what was Kickstart up to? How has he managed to misdirect both FC and yourself onto chrom's case? And who among the Kick wagon would you finger as the two likely scum, looking to gain town cred off of Kickstart's 'sacrifice' play? 1) I'm leaning towards neither, unless it's just bad scum play. If I had to choose, it'd be FC since he hopped on last and could use that fact as an excuse. 2) I wouldn't say I'm on chrom's case. I am suspicious because of that move, but his motives seem sound. I don't understand what Kickstart was doing AT ALL. The only thing I can think is that the rest of the mafia planned this lynch to avoid their own suspicion. The wagoners? I don't know, Syl and Aqua seemed to hop on that train with little initiative and rode it undercover. With what they've contributed, I'm surprised they haven't been nk'd yet. I still want to wait to see who gets killed tonight. I'm really curious who they'll pick.
It was pretty clear to everyone that Aqua was going to get killed if he was town. So he checked Syl, and was prepared to finger Aquanim, if aquanim somehow lived.
Too bad that his reverse psychology didn't work out correctly.
Corazon had done a really good job of being hidden.
And despite my townie hypothesis to support him coming out, he could not -- he had nothing!
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I feel like if I had further developed my cop hypothesis, I might have found something. But that is pure speculation with the benefit of hindsight. Truth is, I did not have the clarity of vision to want to try to develop an Orange cop hypothesis, because a) I did not want to out blues, b) I had another competing cop read, c) I knew that in the absence of SK, town RB already wins the game for us.
It's a good thing scum stuck to killing Aqua and not me. I don't even want to imagine the WIFOM if Aqua lived and orange fingered him. I can totally see Aqua and Corazon piling on to orange for the OMGUS value, and I don't know if Chrom would have enough clout to prevent a mislych of Orange.
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GG orange. You tried to do what you could in N3, but it was too late.
I hope we all learn from what happened here, and I hope it does not scare you from playing again.
And we would all do well to remember not to rely too much on powers. Information gained from powers cannot be revealed openly until late in the game when a roleclaim becomes necessary. Fundamental scumhunting is bread and butter for town and blue alike, in order to build strong cases.
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On December 31 2012 12:49 cakepie wrote:
Fundamental scumhunting is bread and butter for town and blue alike, in order to build strong cases.
Also brush and floss daily! So cheesy when I read it again.
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I know I'm just a boring VT, but if anyone would go over my play and critique specific bits I would really appreciate it!
I already know my logical flaw, which Chrom caught: FC could be anything other than RB and still lead to Chrom+Cora RB pair. I was tunneling too hard at FC as one of (scum RB, town RB, or VT) with confirmation bias from Syl's roleblock accounting attempts (town RB read) to see the other possibilities.
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Your ability to figure these things out amazes me Cake. I wish I could have the thought process that you have.
Of course, maybe it will come to me when I'm not focused on who to kill and how to not get suspected of being scum.
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EPT
