EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XXXIII - Page 37
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Corazon
United States3230 Posts
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threesr
73 Posts
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
On December 22 2012 07:49 cDgCorazon wrote: I would also like to see your thoughts on Aqua's accusations on Omni. Right now it seems like you are not looking at the big picture, and are only seeing possible cases about people who are accusing you. Uh... that case was made by Chromatic. | ||
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Chromatically
United States1700 Posts
On December 22 2012 07:49 cDgCorazon wrote: I would also like to see your thoughts on Aqua's accusations on Omni. Right now it seems like you are not looking at the big picture, and are only seeing possible cases about people who are accusing you. Don't I get any credit?  On December 22 2012 07:51 threesr wrote: Too lazy to do that atm, i dont care about your opinion of me at all just fyi. Please never play this game again if you're going to play this way. If anyone has any questions about the case, do say them now. | ||
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Corazon
United States3230 Posts
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cakepie
985 Posts
Not sure what possessed me to think I could stay up late after dinner, let alone still function well at mafia. Time to try and make up for that. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
----- It is my belief that scum will likely keep a nice spread of playstyle between themselves, I don't think they can imagine getting by with everyone being middle-of-the-road, 50-50 type players. There will be someone trying to seem active, as well as a possible designated lurker/chaos-causing player set up in case a bus is needed. ----- There is scum among the group Aqua, Chrom, fatchunk, shz, (and possibly Mocsta) Not everyone jumping in the early discussion and trying to move things along is town, it is expected that at least one scum should be in that group trying to appear town and gain credibility. It is instructive to look at the first 4-7 votes, before things started getting messy with threesr and corazon. Note that corazon & threesr were really easy targets to be pushed as lynch candidates, given the state of their play from early- to mid- D1. This could cast suspicion on Aquanim and chromatically (early corazon voters) and fatchunk (taking threesr as an easy way out early) Shz did not justify/elaborate very well on Mocsta with the second vote either, even frivolously putting it forth as an alternative for an alternative's sake. Although I must say I did share some of the suspicions he (and threesr) had about Mocsta's playstyle and intent, i.e. high quantity but a bit short on substance at times. Mocsta's votes on shz is a bit omgus, and the vote on threesr could have been taking the easy road to look like he was contributing. This adds to the suspicions on him that arise from his playstyle -- although it must be said that at least that has improved since I commented about it in (post#17292684) Contrast with my vote on OrangeRemi which is a stated pressure vote to force activity, and which I stuck to for a good while, to patiently gauge a longer-term reaction from him. (More on that later, hopefully) | ||
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Chromatically
United States1700 Posts
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Mocsta
Australia9388 Posts
Mocsta’s Analysis for Town Part 1 1. Purpose + Show Spoiler + I expect to be night killed this night 1 phase. If I am still alive, hopefully before, or after reading this you will think I am town aligned. Obviously if I flip, you will see I am the same as Spaghetticus. Regardless, I have held towns best interests at heart for the duration of the game. I have asked us numerous times to think constructively, not to sling mud at others for making mistakes, and to avoid sheeping at all costs. Some of you think I spam, others say I make sense, either way, I am pro-town. Thus, the purpose of this diatribe is to enable towns people to identify the remaining scum in the game. Lastly, I am by no means proclaiming to be an expert [this is my first mafia game ever]. My motives stem from the lack of town activity. There are still people in this game I consider to be town that are minimal posting, and in occasions, sheeping. Though I don’t support premediated sheeping; I view the post/sheep behavior as a lack of confidence. I stated in a post before, some people have the personality to jump into a new activity with confidence. Others need time to soak it in and try to understand the processes. I think the quiet towns people fall into the second category; hence, I hope this will give you the confidence to push your reads and apply pressure. 2. Methodology + Show Spoiler + (1) I started to look through filters, but a lot of people responded to a question without quoting the question. This was doing my head in, so I decided to re-read the thread in its entirety (p13 onwards). (2) Knowing that Spaghetticus died Day 1, I tried to figure out, how Spag was brought onto the table, and the how the previous favourites (Corazon & Threesr) were brought to the forefront (and maintained there) (3) This process gave me quite a few town reads, and specifically, two mafia reads. (4) I needed a break from reading the thread, so started to pressure my mafia reads (p34/35). This generated the responses I was looking for, as will be discussed below. (5) The hunt now began for the 3rd mafia read. Unfortunately, many posters still have a very small filter, so the associations made are required more thought to associate. Some may argue that the evidence is “contextual’ and open to interpretation or weak. I urge you to reconsider, based on the motives of a mafia player. (6) Lastly, there is one poster who my town and mafia reads have called out repeatedly for lurking (Tip: its not Threesr…). This poster also bandwagonned Spaghetticus. Joining the dots together, I think we have a Serial Killer in our midst. (Which is why I do not think there are 4 mafia in this game 3. Summary of Events I wanted to transfer my excel notes, and the sequence of events, but sorry.. its 2.30am here and Im too tired. I apologise. If I survive, I may try to supply this if people are interested. 4. Things which are scummy / not scummy + Show Spoiler + Aquanim post hits the nail on the head On December 20 2012 16:45 Aquanim wrote: Things which are not hard for scum to do: - Talking about policy - Defending other players - Rambling about Mafia theory - Jumping on scumslips - Posting rationally (about things that aren't scumhunting) - Jumping on a wagon Things which are scummy: - Not voting for their best scumread when lynch is imminent. - Derailing fruitful discussion. And, for comparison: Things which are generally hard for scum to do: - Scumhunt. This is NOT the same thing as "put down a vote with some justification". - Convincingly converse with their scumbuddies. 5. Mafioso Suspects #1 & 2 + Show Spoiler + OmniEulogy & Chromatically + Show Spoiler + Firstly, I would like to thank Spaghetticus for putting me onto this guys trail. On December 21 2012 08:30 Spaghetticus wrote: Let us Honor his wish.Scum - OmniEulogy I want this guy picked apart. ... (1) Passive Aggressive Behaviour + Establishing Associations + Show Spoiler + On December 19 2012 11:19 OmniEulogy wrote: @Mocsta @Cromatically I agree Crom is currently my #1 town read as well just judging on how he started his other game and this one. That or he learned to phrase his sentences much better as scum. Mocsta you show a lot of interest as how Mafia should play this game to not draw attention to themselves. Giving me a weird vibe from it. This does two things. Contextually, I was trying to be proactive town; he is attempting a cock block on me by implying mafia movies. He is also establishing a relationship early on with Cromatically. This will be explored in more detail later. (2) Easy Scum Play(s) a. + Show Spoiler + Threesr is under the pump, Omni steps in and adds On December 19 2012 17:20 OmniEulogy wrote: If we use the scum guide. This post is FULL of policy ramble and DOES NOT tie in to scum hunting. OK, so he defends Threesr; but as you will later, completely back flips and jumps on the wagon. In particular I like the ‘line’ to play devils advocate.. as a mafia.. that is the game he is playing To play devils advocate for Theesr on his stance on lurkers. I could see scum using LAL to their advantage and making us waste most of D1 while they play it safe and then bandwagon a lurker, we lynch said lurker he turns up to be town and if things have really gone poorly we learn nothing and scum comes out ahead of us on D1. I agree with Kickstart entirely when he says we should push scum reads over policy lynches. Truthfully I'm more worried about anybody who thinks we should lynch lurkers without second thought.  Smooth!b. + Show Spoiler + On December 19 2012 17:42 OmniEulogy wrote: This is all fluff talk as well. The keypoint is that he is over exaggerating the "newbie" card. Pulling out the newbie card is a defensive technique used to make people feel safe. Townies tend to pull it out when pressured. (See Corazon as an example). In this case, OmniEulogy pulls it out with no direct pressure (from a townie perspective). On the otherhand as mafia, the pressure is abundant from the get go. This goes a long way towards explaining why he slipped out "total newbie etcHonestly the only idea I can come up with as much as I hate to admit it (I'm a total newbie) is to try and either put pressure on somebody who hasn't been very active with posting, even if they are town we could get some interesting replies from other players or target Theesr for his comments on lurking. A player who doesn't want to add a lot to conversations or help scumhunt doesn't come across as being town to me, but I'm inexperienced so does anybody else have thoughts on the matter? Personally I'd love to know why he wants to lurk c. + Show Spoiler + On December 20 2012 09:29 OmniEulogy wrote: First he votes Corazon on the "slip' issue.He then future baits Threesr as the next scum target for town, using the contextual fact that Threesr posts have been interpretted as anti town. His honest line is "two mafia players can't afford to lynch each other".. ##Vote: cDgCorazon He slipped up so badly I can't believe it was a mistake. He actually claimed mafia after an already terrible start while being defensive and being overly cautious of most of his posts. I think Theesr's constant back and forth with him made him slip up. He constantly says who benefits from a 1 day Lynch. Town does in this situation even if we lynch him and he turns out town. If this happens I'm almost positive Theesr is scum, he's been trying to spread confusion and is openly claiming he doesn't want to post a lot or explain himself. Extremely scummy behavior. If it wasn't for the fact that Corazon literally said he was mafia and didn't even correct it until somebody else brought it up (meaning in his mind the sentence made sense) then I would be trying to start a hunt on Theesr. The only thing making me think Theesr is just a bad town is the way he's been aggressively going for Corazon, on D1 I would never expect two mafia players to try and lynch each other they just can't afford to. I believe at the moment our best bet is to lynch Corazon at the end of D1, see who jumps on the bandwagon and if he flips scum we'll be able to look at who tried to defend him, who eventually gave in, and who was set on lynching him right away. If he flips town and I've made a mistake on my reads than Theesr is most likely scum and used the fact that Corazon was not posting comfortably at the start to secure a town lynch D1. Either way we as town get an extremely large amount of information if we lynch Corazon at the moment. Unless proven otherwise Corazon's slips have made him 100% scum in my mind. I'm going to make something to eat and then I'll look over everything again just to make sure I've read everything correctly. Along the lines of the "newbie"card behavioural slip.. Omni offeers the following gem too. "Either way we as town get". This is such an odd phrasing. if you know you are town, tis natural to write "us townies must get" or "either way we must get".. he feels the feel to insert town in a phrasing that is not natural. It feels forced, and is in line with the mafia mentality. c. + Show Spoiler + On December 20 2012 18:22 OmniEulogy wrote: You have good points Spaghetticus but it doesn't really change my mind. People did come to his defense and tried to counter by voting for Threesr. ... My vote is not locked yet it is just on the person I find most likely to be scum. I don't think he's past the point of no return either. I believe the vote count is 5 for Corazon and 3 for Threesr at the moment. and as I said Threesr would be my #2 if it weren't for the fact that it wouldn't make any sense for both him and Corazon to be scum. I'd like Corazon to tell us his top scum reads, and why they seem to be. I'd also like to note to Spaghetticus and everybody else that if you are looking for more people who came to Corazon's defense, Orangeremi tried to make a case of why Corazon wasn't scum and went back to lurking. I'd like to actually hear why Orangeremi refused to give us an idea of who his top scum reads were and why he didn't actually say why Corazon wasn't acting scummy. The fact that he then put out the same three names for his top scum reads that everybody else had and then went into hiding again is also suspicious. In Orangeremi's own words "Instead of looking for scum players, they would be making unjustified claims hoping others hop wagon in an attempt to get an innocent player lynched." and then "Otherwise, I have a slight suspicion of Sylencia that is based solely on a hunch and little to no evidence." based on that... ##FOS Orangeremi This is hilarious. Omni has been hammering Corazon for a couple pages. Then because Orangeremi thinks Corazon may be innocent, Omni retaliates by pointing the Finger of Suspicion. He takes time to explain his thoughts, so its not an OMGUS. Instead he is aplpying the tactic of mental bullying. If you defy my thoughts, you have to be mafia, and I will vote you. Thus, townies will become reluctant to separate their views from Omni. This is a perfect mafia play. Some may counter this by saying I point the finger of suspicion as well, in what some deemed to be OMGUS. I suggest, re-read the posts I made. I am always challenging people to think for themselves, not sheep my thoughts. This is a clear difference between helpful town and infiltrating mafia. d. + Show Spoiler + On December 20 2012 21:51 OmniEulogy wrote: #Unvote ##Vote: Spaghetticus ##FoS: cDgCorazon Congrats Corazon. I still think you are scum but I'm going to hunt your buddies for the rest of the day. Personally I read Mocsta as town and don't mind him trying to lead conversation for the next day and night. If he is scum the amount of talking he'll have to do will eventually make him slip up. Of course he reads me as town. If im not mafia, I have to be town, and he knows the mafia count. When he refers to slips, he actually referring to my false accusation of Spaghetticus. He was hoping town would attempt to roast me, and I would make a slip akin to Dorazon. Mafia behaviour is written all over this. e.+ Show Spoiler + On December 21 2012 00:15 OmniEulogy wrote: Alright. This will be my first time doing anything with multiple posts in it let alone have it be this big... if I mess up and hide anything in spoilers I apologize in advance lol  ty, ofc. I'm going to play safe in my first game as VT in mafia. Omni knows this was a total slip, and tries to smooth the situation on p35 with some interplay #1 town read Chromatically. There is no reason to claim VT, no reason at all. This is completely forced. Again, he prefaces his ATTACK with a "this is my first time.. i apologise". This is a repeat of point b. f.+ Show Spoiler + On December 21 2012 09:26 OmniEulogy wrote: @Chrom just because Spagh got his reads wrong and got lynched defending scum doesn't mean the rest of us have been wrong about that situation. It's unfortunate that we got taken off course because Aqua made a good point and Spagh couldn't defend himself properly but how does any of that change the fact that the logic behind Corazon/threesr/FC is still sound. Here Omni is instantly pushing again for Corazon/threesr/FC all over again. Note the commentary directly to Chromatically...This guy is constantly trying to tell us who to vote for. Same with Chromatically. Do i say vote for someone? No, i ask that you think for yourselves. If you want to join me because my logic is reasoned well, so be it. Omni on the other hand is resorting back to Mental bullying. Trying to push for the heads of those townies, and makign others feel uncomfortable to challenge them. g. + Show Spoiler + On December 21 2012 10:20 OmniEulogy wrote: I'm completely serious. make the case so I can rip it apart and then we can work together because I believe you to be town. In the mean time I'll make my own cases. This again demonstrates Omnis attitude to the town environment. Lets not me constructive, I will "rip you to shreds" This does not aid scum hunting. It actually again is mental bullying and will prevent others from posting and sharing their opinions. (3) The Trigger + Show Spoiler + This is the post that made me want to read Omni's filter in gross detail. Keep in mind I already thought Aquanim was innocent based on the information I provided Here Thus when i saw the following: On December 21 2012 19:48 OmniEulogy wrote: Alright, so to get more conversation going I'm going to go over pretty much everything I believe we've learned from D1. Reads I'll start off with Corazon. After re-reading everything he's said a few times I believe I owe him an apology. As he defended Spag while the vote was on him I'm willing to say I believe he is town. He stuck with his vote on Theesr the entire time. I am willing to overlook every mistake up to this point in his posting and trust that what ever he says from now on is from the mouth of a townie. I believe strong town reads are Mocsta, Chromatically, and Aquanim. If Aquanim were scum, he didn't need to try to get Spag lynched to save Corazon, as Corazon defended Spag and imo proved his innocence. If Aqua were scum he could have sat back and let us lynch Cora. - same thing happens N1 but his name isn't out there for starting the lynch. For this I believe Aqua is town. FC's actions at the end of D1 still throw me off a little bit. On one hand he's defending him (much too late) and if he were scum and knew Spag would turn up town it would make it easy for him to try and give a last minute case about why he thinks he's innocent. Hard to tell as he makes a few good points as well. He also tried to defend Corazon when nobody else would. Makes it much harder for me to call him scum now. Theesr moves to my #1 scum read as even during the lynch of Spag he really doesn't seem to care. I believe he even says at one point he doesn't care. Again I owe an apology to Corazon as I believe he might be right in thinking Theesr is Scum or possible SK. Shz fits into a middle ground for me. I am neutral about him for the time being. I'll need to look through the filter again. with them gone the people I really have trouble marking come out. Orange, Kick, Cakepie, and Sylencia. I'll enjoy having Sylencia around more often now and it should bring some more insight on him but I find it incredibly hard to read the other three and can't tell if they represent town or scum at all. TL:DR sorry Cora, I believe you are town along with Mocsta, Aqua, Chrom, and maybe shz/fc Aqua I think you should look this over and see if it makes sense to you. Moc/Chrom/shz/cora as well. I believe if we use D1 as any indicator we can assume this to be correct. I admit I was wrong about Corazon after reading through everything again and thinking about it for awhile. Hopefully we can move on and get some of these lurkers out in the open He confirms me, Chrom and Aqua as firm townies. My own notes did not have Chrom as a firm townie at all. So it made no sense to me that Chrom could be in his top 3.In fact Chroma was one of the guys constantly trying to bandwagon Corazon/Threesr/FatChunk; now considered to me as innocents. Reading through interplay between Chrom and Omni filters, it starts to make sense. They are both mafia feeding off each to throw townies under the bus. Coordinating between putting pressure and then pulling back to ensure the state of confusion. I must admit they did a good job. Possiblity even a bigger tell is that he apologises to Corazon. Even though many others falsely accused, no one else apologised. Its life, i didnt apologise for voting spag. I thought my case was strong. So why does Omni apologise, you could argue because corazon wasnt eliminated; but i think its because he realised contextually Corazon is viewed as a townie, and is now trying to distance himself from the lynch attempts prior. (4) The Pressure + Show Spoiler + So I decide to put indirect pressure on Omni. He seemed keen to post, so I tried to bait him and throw out comments of a hammer post. He took the bait and decides to post these early defenses..... again interplayed with Chroma... First Chroma asks Omni thoughts of me. (how kind of them) On December 21 2012 21:23 OmniEulogy wrote: no problem Chrom, I think Mocsta has been fairly good at posting his reasons and logic behind most of his moves so far in this game. He's posted a lot and I can't really say much of it has seemed scummy. He's also agreed with and worked with Aqua on some cases which could be him trying to hitch a ride but at the moment I have no reason to doubt him and there is a LOT to go through and still not have any solid scum reads on him. He generally feeds off what other people say and starts conversations with them to try and scum hunt without leading a player in a direction which I also think is a pretty big sign of a helpful townie. Translation... we want to pen mocsta, but even though he has the highest post contribution out of everyone, we cant find a slip anywhere... I completely agree.. where it gets interesting is when I slip the bait and ask him to do his mate Chroma. On December 21 2012 22:40 OmniEulogy wrote: I feel like you two are having a conversation through me. lol For very similar reasons as you Mocsta I believe Chrom is town. He was the one who originally made the case against Corazon which at that point was the correct move imo. He advanced our conversations and gave us a lot of information, even with this lynch it has still been helpful in clearing some of the confusion I had after I went over all of the posts. He pressures well, he asks good questions. and again there is a lot to go through but I couldn't find any real scum tells. He made his major cases against FC and Cora and they were both very well thought out imo. Very easy to see him as town at this point. and idk if I take offense to that or not Mocsta but if you see an error in the way I've said I see things please let me know. That goes for anybody.Again, dont read the words literally. It needs to be taken into perspective. Why is one person not have any scum reads... and teh other, he cant find scum tells.. to me, you target ppl via scum reads.. and then consolidate on them via scum tells. For F@#$s sake.. even Omni agrees LOL!! On December 21 2012 23:33 OmniEulogy wrote: As far as I know a scum tell is when they slip up, a scum read is based on opinion/fact revolving around what they post and what you think of it. basically I think of a tell as something more definite. If chroma is indeed his top 3 town.. why he is looking for scum tells? Thats curious behaviour indeed. To confirm my decision was not biased behaviour.. I decided to publically ask what their thoughts on the difference between scum tells and scum reads are... Random Towns thoughts on scum read/tell I needed this behaviour to stick... ie. Chroma and Omni were mafia But incase I was dead and not avialable to argue the case, i needed to ensure others would be able to interpret this and follow the hammer. (5) Pre-emptive Strike + Show Spoiler + After putting some pressure onto the duo of Chroma/Omni, regarding the scum tell/scum read and directly pasting their quotes. I think they put 2+2 together. I am coming after them. What is the result.. Chroma and Omni start interplaying on poor quotes from Omni, and he starts to defend them as if he was a townie. lets see the outcome. On December 22 2012 01:52 OmniEulogy wrote: quick thing about claiming VT. You would have forced me to role claim about 20 minutes after I had made that original post. I saw it coming (not from you in particular but knew somebody was going to come after me after the lynch) so doing it 10 minutes before D1 ended or 10 minutes into N1 doesn't really make the largest difference. If I don't role claim early in that situation imo D2 I'm the easiest lynch at that point in time. Anyway on to Corazon, as I mentioned in the quote you posted his starting game was bad, as I was going to sleep and reading everything over he was already becoming scum in my mind, I woke up and read through 6~ more pages of him making bad posts, excuses and no real answers to anything and then posts that he's mafia. I honestly just had a hard time anybody would be so nervous that even while being careful they would post so many scummy things. as per what he means about the NK from what I take from it and the only thing that makes sense is that scum will avoid targeting me because they know I'm not blue. If that isn't what he meant about the NK then I don't know. This is such an obvious attempt at pre-empting other townies pick up on this. The garbage he posts is such dribble I won't even bother to dispute it. OK i will.. no one was ever trying to obtain a role claim.. i think omni tried to do an association of safe with vanilla townie. LOL.. gotta try less hard please next time.. and then comes this one + Show Spoiler + On December 22 2012 02:21 OmniEulogy wrote: because Spag made it his last case to try and convince somebody I was scum. He was town its not hard to assume I'll become a target. Also something I'm painfully aware of and I'm sure everybody else has noticed as well is that when I mapped out who should be town and why I don't actually have a place on that list. I had tried to help scum hunt and give my thoughts D1 but given that I didn't defend anybody I just need to use my consistent play and the fact that I am VT. Poor planning on my part but I think the information we got isn't the worst trade off. Hopefully everyone realizes that at the time all my scum reads and the one tell on Corazon made sense. However I wasn't about to let us waste 72 hours to get myself lynched and we end up with 3 dead townies going into N2. Translation: He knows Im coming for him, and is trying to pen reasoning down completely to Spag post. I agree, Spag made me want to look @ Omni in more detail. However, it wasnt until he made his comments about be and scum reads that I became suspecious. The rest is clearly evident. (6) The partner in crime + Show Spoiler + I am not going to waste too much energy on Chromatically. Seriously, him and Omni to and fro in posts so much, the relationships are CLEARLY there. perfect examlpe is the pre-emptive strikes on p35/36 of the thread. It starts ith Chroma Please explain VT claim and then progresses into a bunch of useless fluff I have quoted above. If you check out Chroma filter, he is just as aggressive as Omni; constantly alternating pressures, but maintaining the same three people. The same ppl spag died trying to prove their innocence. For sake of a finished product. (1) he has actually played as mafia before.. i had a quick read Chroma as Scum, framer I find his meta-style to be similar, but I will let you read for yourselves.[e.g.always references 'mafia" Personally i think the evidence is condemning enough not to bother. Just that he is so deeply involved with Omni should be enough, but lets provide a couple quotes. On December 20 2012 00:32 Chromatically wrote: @Mocsta (or anyone, really) On Corazon, I'm focusing more on his defensiveness and excuse-making as reasons for why he is scum. Do you agree that the things I have highlighted in his posts are more likely coming from mafia? Like Omni, trying to bandwagon Corazon. These two were Corazons main hecklers This quote is jus weird and contradictory. On December 20 2012 04:46 Chromatically wrote: I am fairly confident that Mocsta is town. ... I don't like his case on threesr, but I don't see him making that as scum. It draws too much attention to himself and stimulates discussion at the same time... Contradictory because he has repeatedly called me out for being useless. i.e. On December 20 2012 23:56 Chromatically wrote: Which is it chromatically..@Mocsta Please do build a case, your comments so far have been mostly useless. On December 22 2012 00:29 Chromatically wrote: I think that my suspicion of Omni may have been hasty. There's a few posts I'd like you to explain, but other than those you come out clean. FatChunk and Corazon I'm still having doubts on noob vs scum, hopefully they contribute more during d2. I think shz and Orangeremi need to be looked at more, I'll definately write something on shz. I agree with what Kick said about it (sniped me) but shz is also hardcore blending in. He hasn't taken any positions on anything and is being mostly ignored by everyone, which just bothers me. He's also been basically active lurking all day. Lol.. Fat Chunk and Corazon have no reads/tells compared to Omni. Yet Chrome says Omni comes out clean. That is fishy to me. Need i say more? [big][b]Please make your cases/cast your votes for OmniEulogy and Chromatically | ||
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Mocsta
Australia9388 Posts
Mocsta’s Analysis for Town Part 2 6. Mafioso Suspect #3 + Show Spoiler + Cakepie + Show Spoiler + For some of you this may come a shock. For others, this is no surprise. Several of you have commented on him as 50/50 reads. What is certain is.. he has a very low vote profile which makes reads/tells very difficult (unlike Omni/Chroma). The analysis I am giving below will be more behavioral focussed, and relationship based due to the limited posts. a. His first post + Show Spoiler + On December 19 2012 11:52 cakepie wrote: Cakepie definitely writes eloquently in a manner that comes across as pre-meditated and knowledgeable... Or does it?GMT-8 here -- lynch deadlines are 7am for me, it remains to be seen if I can be sufficiently awake and coherent around that time. (waking at 6?..... Why do I do this to myself when I am technically on vacation and should be sleeping in? =/) Alright, GLHF; let's jump straight into the discussion: ----- 1) Stance on Lurkers: i.e. Do you policy lynch? I am all for discouraging lurking, but policy lynching should never be a substitute for scum hunting. This game is about building well reasoned cases against suspected scum, pressing them, and the discussing and logically evaluating the cases on the strength of the evidence. When town is able to foster active, productive discussion, lurking is just another scummy behavior to be used to build up a case against suspicious players, and prolonged lurking in particular becomes more suspicious as the game continues. There is never a good reason for town to lurk. Only by discussing our reasoning and lines of thought can we hope to find and eradicate scum. Town must never clam up for fear of making mistakes -- 1. it is through discussion that we may hope to correct errors in reasoning; and 2. more importantly, in the event of a mislynch, it would leave trail for others to follow. Hence, a silent townie is a far more useless than a bad townie. I feel that it is futile to try to set predefined activity standards for what amounts to lurking; every game varies. Quality is also important. Insofar as fostering a healthy level of activity goes, this game is off to a good start; what we need to do now is to keep the discussion going. When we do get to the point when a few individual players are clearly standing out as not contributing productively (whether as a consequence of lurking or otherwise) we shall evaluate those cases at that time. Policy discussion is nice to start the ball rolling and get people posting, but now that a good chunk of us are here, we need to switch our focus to scum hunting soon. ----- You need to look up "infiltrate" in a dictionary. There is nothing to "infiltrate". The scum are already among us, posting openly in this public thread. Unless you have just made a slip? Hmmm? Scum may seek to sway opinion and/or cause confusion and influence the lynch. But everything here is open to the scrutiny of all. As town we initially outnumber scum; with responsible play and sound wits and logic, we can prevail. Remember: when everyone contributes, even a mislynch is informative for the survivors. ----- On seafood: Seafood is yummy. That it all. ----- I disagree, and disapprove. If you are not thinking and scum hunting, then you are not playing responsibly as town. If you are afraid of being wrong, then I say: by sharing your thoughts, mistake can be corrected, and you leave a trail of reasoning that we can look back at even if you are killed or mislynched. Behavior that does not help town but benefits scum is a net loss for town, and we cannot condone it. A complete ban elsewhere and a modkill in witchcraft does no bode well for you. Your posts so far have been short and without substance. I don't know what your arrangement with the mods is for this game, nor is it my place to question that. But if you don't step up your game soon, be prepared to be under heavy scrutiny. ----- On lying: In this thread it is scum that is trying to mislead town, especially while town outnumbers scum. While there are some cases where town players, and blue roles in particular, may have reason to lie in some sort of gambit against scum, there is no place for that in this newbie game, none of us are at that level yet. When a townie lies, there is a far greater chance that it will sow confusion amongst us, and when discovered, it will distract from hunting actual scum. Bottom line: it is not acceptable for town to lie in this game, it will hurt us more than it helps us. ----- That's where I stand on policy issues and early game fluff. Going to get brunch and go about my day for now, be back in a bit. He starts off with timezone fluff. Moves into a good speech regarding policies (remember aquanim signs of easy scum play.. policy talk).. This is not boding well now for Cakepie. He is the only poster to put this much effort into policy talk (albeit, was an enjoyable read) Then he tries to cock block me by insulating my vocabulary knowledge. Ironically. his statement is wrong (but I think he already knew that..) Definition Infiltrate: "Gain access to (an organization, place, etc.) furtively and gradually, esp. in order to acquire secret information." I thought mafia wanted to know gain access to the town circles.. control the play.. acquire the blue reads and finish off. This is a scum play trying to play down the emphasis on infiltration techniques (again tools for us to analyse with) and putting down publically one of the more proactive town posters. I did not challenge him on this item for a few reasons. His post received contextually solid town support, so fighting this issue of "definition' would come across as petty and lower my value as a person that is seeking fairness to arguments. *I was well aware of the poewrplay though* The rest of the post is fluff regarding policies.. modkill reference (which i already stated), and saying not to lie. THe usual fare. Nothign new was presented? It was just done in a nicely structured format. b. second post + Show Spoiler + On December 19 2012 13:44 cakepie wrote: EBWOP: GMT+8. I need to stop forgetting that I've just crossed the Pacific Ocean. this is just fluff c. 3rd post + Show Spoiler + On December 19 2012 21:08 cakepie wrote: Now that we've got some filters to work with, I’m in the midst of going through everything and taking notes. A few items of miscellany for now while I’m working on that.. ----- @Spaghetticus: this is my first game. If my count is right, this is the first time for 7 of us, and 4 others have just one game under their belt (not counting threesr who has played elsewhere before). Quite the newbie game! ----- As I have already stated, my belief is that such fear is unfounded, counterproductive, and not a valid reason for a townie to lurk. By posting, even if a player is misunderstood and killed for it, a trail will remain for others to follow. This is crucial in this game that is built about asymmetry of information. I can understand if players with blue roles are inclined curtail their activity so as not to stand out too much and present an obvious target for scum kp. However, that is not a free pass to completely lurk either. ----- Well, sorry for wanting to answer thoroughly and spell things out clearly. =( Talks about some notes. Add fluff regarding game counts. Post stuff about trails.. lets see what leads to him. (there is one post in particular we will get to later). Throws in blue role out of no where, potentially as a play to associate his role as blue. Gets horny, someone said his posts were clear and well thought out.. not much content and this is 3 posts in... d. 4th post + Show Spoiler + On December 19 2012 23:21 cakepie wrote: Here are my thoughts based on study of the filters so far, as well as questions directed at individual players. [written based on posts up to Dec 19 21:15 forum time (KST), will catch up on newer posts in a bit] ----- Aquanim: put some effort to find suspicious players, albeit evidence is too scant at this early point to build strong cases. Regardless, boldly throws down the first vote to get things rolling. I cannot fault the choice of voting cDgCorazon as a pressure vote; an excellent choice. I would hope to see more fleshed out cases as this day phase continues, and as the rest of the progresses. ----- cDgCorazon: you need to justify your stance on why lurkers should be handled on a "case to case basis" as this is a point of disagreement between you and several other players, myself included. Q1. How much time should someone be allowed in order to "sit back and figure things out?" A day phase is 48 hours long. What do you think is a reasonable expectation in terms of productive contribution from each player within that time frame? Is two to three substantial posts too much to ask? Q2. threesr openly condones lurking, and claims a lurking playstyle (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17239117). He was banned elsewhere, and modkilled in his last game here on TL. How do you propose we approach this situation, from your standpoint of handling on a "case to case basis" ? Where would you draw the line for unacceptable behavior, if his effort does not improve? My focus now is on forcing activity from lurkers and broadening the search for scum suspects, but if his play does not improve in the rest of the day, and questions are not answered satisfactorily, I would be happy to jump on the cDgCorazon wagon when we get to the phase of narrowing down the list. For now, ##FOS: cDgCorazon ----- Chromatically: pressed threesr and corazon earlier in the day, and brief discussion with mocsta, but has probably gone to sleep since, assuming NA timezones. Looking forward to more when he wakes up in a few hours from now. ----- FatChunk: not much besides a promise to be fearless. Needs to step it up. Q:Now that there are fairly substantial filters for several players and a conspicuous lack thereof for others, who do you think is suspicious, and why? You also need to address the question: ----- Kickstart: we agree that hunting scummy scum takes precedence over lurkers. Fingered to threesr’s defense of lurking, although that was pretty obvious, and comes after several others already pointed it out. Play so far seems less active than in previous games. Would like to see more activity and contribution in the remainder of the day phase. Show us the experience from your three games. Q1: re: threesr, he has openly declared that his playstyle was lurky, tried to defend it, and, well, did it. You said that: What do you think of the possibility that threesr has adopted this meta in order to benefit himself when he rolls (eventually) scum? Q2: what do you think of the shz’s case on mocsta? What is your current read on mocsta? Does it look like scum with useless questions and creating a false impression of activity? Or an earnest townie? Q3: Apart from cDgCorazon, mocsta and threesr, has anything else caught your attention by now? ----- Mocsta: prolific, but does come across as a little over-eager. A bit too excited about first game? The FOS on sylencia was definitely too hasty. Shz’s case on mocsta so far does not look like it holds much water right now. Nonetheless, the time for banter about policy is past; it is time to put forward cases. Q: You accused shz of sheeping. What do you think after studying his filter? Are there the beginnings of a case that can be built upon? Whatever you find unsatisfactory about his play, I would like to see you question him and push him to take a position on someone or something. ----- OmniEulogy: NA time, was active up till 4 am ET, before cases started being made. Will assume sleeping, awaiting further contributions once awake. In particular, please comment on the cases so far, and see if you can build a case against someone. ----- OrangeRemi: Nothing apart from useless, "unsure" answers on mocsta’s initial questions, deferring to earlier answers and pleading inexperience -- we are all new here, but that is no excuse for not even putting some thought into simple questions. Besides that, only noted timezone and first game. This is despite three posts spanning over 4+ hours during which others were active. If waking hours are "unorthodox" in a way that is "convenient" for the aussies, we could have expected much more substance by now. Q: Pick and make a case against someone. Pressure voting. ##Vote: OrangeRemi ----- shz: Tried to provide a case on mocsta as an alternative to cDgCorazon. However, the fast town read was first pointed out by spaghetticus, and OmniEulogy was the one who first pointed to the questions about scum startegy. Not sure the case is viable at this point, but I agree that Mocsta seems a bit too eager. Q: Evaluate my play. Does it look town, or does it look scum? Why? ----- Spaghetticus: solid so far, no complaints. Would like to see you start getting on one of the cases or form one of your own. ----- Sylencia: Declared busy, has been mostly absent. Would hope to see at least some participation in the lynch discussion. Expecting to be much more active after your work dinner party when you are "free from any obligations whatsoever." ----- threesr: Has posted nothing but useless one- and two- liners. It is coming up to daytime EST, time to step up your play or else. As I and others have already mentioned, lurking is not acceptable here. In the absence of scummier targets, I will not hesitate to lynch you. ##FOS: threesr The thing that maeks Cakepie come across as pro town initially, is that he was one of the few (if not only) person to actually provide a bunch of questoins to each person. This comes across as fair and well-reasoned. Until you start examing how many people have received questions etc. Confirms Corazon is an excellent choice, but provides no reason to why, other than a request to justify stance... is that really worthy of a vote? For some one as well reasoned as cake pie.. i think not. Tries to associate me with the current lynch hot property (croazon and threesr). a nice subtle play. When talking to OmniEulogy.. he is only asked to build a case.. there is no justification or answering to anyone else. Seems like he got away scott free. When talking to Chromatically, says "looking forward to more' when you wake up.. does this comment even follow the flow you try to associate with a cakepie post (as limited as they are?) Then to avoid associating a relationship with Omni/Chroma he votes a guy that has received 0 attention (OrangeRemi). What a play to distance yaself. Hwoever, to ensure ppl who value his opinion and think he is town still sheep him; he Finger of Suspicious Threesr. He does it smart too. Most ppl FOS within the post, and ensure the vote is at the end. Not Cakepie. he plays teh manipulative vote in the middle, and the FOS @ the end. Most ppl wont even notice. Guess Cakepie was right.. there is a breadtrail to be found.. unfortunately for Cakepie I was alluding to a different one!! The only reason I found out was because I wanted to see where his vote on Threesr was in teh queue and i coudlnt find it lol!! Then I realised the play. This is enough to vote Cakepie as far as Im concerned. e. Post 5/6 Is just referencing the Day1 vote count. f.Post 7 + Show Spoiler + On December 20 2012 03:55 cakepie wrote: My read of his scant content is just slightly scummy. The lack of contribution is a bigger concern for now, and so I think two pressure votes plus the credible threat of more should hopefully cause a reaction one way or the other. I am waiting to see how he will address my questions to him. (may need to update questions though.) ----- So, we’ve got some shit starting to hit the fan. Mocsta with a bunch of posts, voting shz. Threesr the self-proclaimed lurker stops lurking and FoS Mocsta, triggering a voteswitch by Mocsta that does not look completely well-reasoned, even somewhat omgus. Then threesr himself switches to FatChunk before clamming up again. This is something I have noted myself. Looking at Mocsta’s filter, for all the prolific output and various questions posed -- hardly any of the questions apply pressure on anyone, only fluff about policy, scum strategy, what environment allows Mafia to thrive, how to stimulate discussion, etc, rather than scumhunting questions. Now, this is not to say that Mocsta has not openly presented (or tried to) his reasoning for suspecting people, and responded to questions and accusations. But his two votes were in response to others suspecting him, and there is no original scumhunting to be seen. Things seem to start going really haywire with the deathwish post: It is way too early in the game for this nonsense. It is not only poor form to appeal to blues -- even if Mocsta earnestly believes that his play has singled him out as target for scum, I would consider it overrating his own contributions. Then, in response to the FoS from threesr: Counter-arguments (1) and (3) are fine at refuting the accusations from threesr, but I am not completely convinced by (2) as I do indeed find a lack of substance in the questions posed by Mocsta. Mocsta seems to swiftly conclude that threesr is seeking to misrepresent what he had said, and quickly switches his vote on the basis of lynching liars. I offer an alternative explanation: the weak aspects of the case put forward by threesr could be merely lazy scumhunt by someone who has been accustomed to lurking and not following closely, but has been forced to participate under pain of lynch. (This is by no means defending threesr or offering an excuse for his behavior.) Mocsta You’re definitely getting too excited with the flurry of posting and you need to cool your head. Try to consolidate your posts more, it also gives you time to reflect and digest things. I hope you take another fresh look at things when you wake up in the morning. Q: Consider: if threesr is lazy "scumhunting" because he simply doesn’t know any better -- how would that measure against your case against shz for sheeping, and poor vote justification i.e. lack of critical analysis before voting based on "questions raised by others"? especially @ Aquanim, Chromatically, Kickstart, Spaghetticus, shz Q: what do you think of mocsta’s flurry of posts and vote switch? Is he merely overly excited, or could there be merit in the accusation that his incessant questions were noise without substance? ----- I think you’ll have plenty to work with by the time you wake up  This, very, very much. Keep in mind: if I were to be mislynched or killed by scum, what could you infer from the trail that I am leaving? What about Mocsta? Or anyone else for that matter? Comments on Corazon , AFTER following the prompt of Chromatically.. How convenient for them two. Then trys to associate me as scummy, and then to avoid me coming after him with an OMGUS, he backfoots and potentially infers I am still being pro-town. Comments on my case against threesr, which even I can admit was terrible. and then poses me qusetions. Why.. its a power play. He essnetially "tore me to shread - respectfully" and then asked me questions in an attempt to enforce superiority over me, and thus, make a stake at leading town, as I was one of the more active posters. g.Post 8 + Show Spoiler + On December 20 2012 04:36 cakepie wrote: As for threesr: try harder. Two brief cases against Mocsta and FatChunk, but refusing to elaborate on the question of Corazon? Dislike writing? Why do you sign up to play then? Elaborate on your case against FatChunk. Not a valid excuse. Lazy is worse than just plain bad. ----- It is early yet. The vote stands as a reminder so that OrangeRemi is not forgotten while we carry on at length about other players. Yes, there are several more hours, let’s wait a bit and see what he/she does with that time. Other key suspects have votes on them already, my FoS stands to back those up as well. As we draw closer to the lynch, there will be a process of consolidation. But I shall leave this pressure vote where it is for now, rather than switch frivolously, and will see where things stand in a few hours. Really? As opposed to Mocsta, who you have your vote on? If you had to lynch for inactivity and/or lack of serious contribution, how would you order the 3-4 candidates? ----- It is past 3 am, going to bed now. I like that some NA folks are starting to chip in more now that it is day over there, and look forward to longer filters to analyze when I get back. Calls out Threesr. Easy play to make. He has made so many comments aginst the grain of town thats a no brainer to fit in. Then stands by vote to Orangeremi for being a lurker. The real cause is.. the bandwagon on Croazon was big enough for a lynch. THus.. cakepies vote was not required. he could safely distance himself. Then talks about fluff with time zones h. Post9 + Show Spoiler + On December 21 2012 02:52 cakepie wrote: Upfront disclosure: Had an unexpectedly long day today due to complications with consular/visa stuff that needs to be done ahead of my return trip across the pond. Will be occupied early tomorrow dealing with this as well, followed by social obligations -- but will definitely aim to get some solid content in around 5 hours before end of N1. It has taken a large chunk of the evening for me to catch up with all the posts since I was last in here, taking notes, etc. It is 0100 KST as I start drafting this post (excludes newer posts from consideration), and I have now pretty much made up my mind for D1. It is late and I need to get an early start to tomorrow as well, so forgive me for not addressing the status of every player (compared to my previous posts). But the important bits are definitely here. ----- As I did my catch-up reading I grew increasingly suspicious at the lack of pressure being applied from Spaghetticus. His response to my questioning is that he wanted to wait until he had a >30% scummy read on someone, but that is followed by some 15 or so posts in which little real pressure is applied on anyone. He tries to coax threesr and corazon to not OMGUS and to pick and stick to a read. Then presses OmniEulogy to diversify his suspects list, and asks OrangeRemi and Sylencia to step things up without any questioning of substance. I refuse to believe that Spaghetticus can have nothing of worth to bring to the table in that 8-hour duration. Of course, following that is the defence of Corazon as the votes got stacked up to a dangerous number of 6+fos. Aquanim builds a thorough and well-considered case, and that I agree with all of it. One thing I can add is that I am watching how others react to my choice of playstyle, and compared to everyone else who generally addresses my (early) play only in passing, or only addresses me directly in response to my questions, Spaghetticus comes across as conspicuously eager to seem chummy with me (but also deliberately cautiously so, under the caveat that I am leaving a trail if he later deems a need to consider if I am scummy or not.) This is anomalous and I do not like the vibe that it gives me, considering the various possible motives for such behavior. The only thing he has going for him is the lack of OMGUS, but he jolly well can't do that if he preached against it earlier! Consequently, he still has not voted yet, and it is now getting late in D1. ##Unvote ##Vote: Spaghetticus Let's do this thing for reals. The only votes left on Corazon are threesr, shz, Sylencia. Two of those I will not take too seriously, and shz voted there as an overnight placeholder pending later consideration. @Spaghetticus out with your reads, if you are town and we are all terribly mistaken. It may not save you, but it will help the common town wincon when you get mislynched. There is no time to wait for >30% scummy or whatever now. ----- Reminder: these still stand from my earlier post. ##FOS: threesr ##FOS: cDgCorazon threesr has posted more, albeit abrasive, lazy, and chaotic. but it is marginally better than before. I can understand his play from a lazy angle, but I still do not approve of it. willing to see if there is a further effort at improvement. My FoS on cDgCorazon has strengthened at the attack on Aquanim's case in lieu of defending Spaghetticus. (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17302166) He has also failed to address my questions adequately. Q1 was ignored, and his answer to Q2 (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17295870) is hardly informative as by the time he posted that response, threesr had posted quite a bit as well as voted several times. Furthermore it is notable that the only votes left on threesr as I write this are corazon and fatchunk, both of whom picked him for being an easy target early on. (Don't forget that fatchunk is also under suspicion as well. I don't FoS him yet, but he has stayed firmly in the scummier half of my semi-ordered players list.) ----- Additionally, ##FOS: OrangeRemi although I unvoted. I can understand some reasons/motivation why you might be cautious, and am willing to wait to see what you can bring to the table N1/D2. But do not test my patience too much. Also, as chromatically already explained, no lynch leaves us with no info and down at least one from N1 scum kp -- please do not no lynch. ##FOS: Kickstart the lack of activity from him has gotten to the point of really uncharacteristic compared to his earlier games. Other than spaghetticus, only he has yet to vote. Give us something to work with soon, otherwise be prepared for further scrutiny. And please do not get modkilled -- if you are town, we'd like to see you put your past experience to work. ----- It is late now and I need to be out and about early tomorrow. Depending on whether I manage to drag myself out of bed, I may or may not be able to pop in around 2h before lynch (before I need to head out). Regardless, with the information at hand now, we should be on track for a lynch of Spaghetticus or cDgCorazon, with FatChunk earmarked for scrutiny next. I am satisfied with how things stand, at 6 hours to go. If this is headed for a mislynch, I trust spaghetticus will keep his head on, do the right thing and give us as much to work with as possible. (side note: good to see a less frenetic mocsta. keep it up.) This is the breadcrumb post. You can read all teh fluff. giving excuses blah blah. But the guy who in post one was so in control, well reaonsed and calm.. decides to join the bandwagon on spaghetticus. Breadcrumb: try this one.. (I think shz picked it up as well) On December 21 2012 02:52 cakepie wrote: ##Unvote ##Vote: Spaghetticus Let's do this thing for reals. (1) He directly quotes Chromatically as his justifcaition. Why so much trust.. never presented him questions.. I think its cos they are working together, just like with Omni. Then what is this lets do this thing for real? You could say its a rally to townies.. but.. the way that is expressed is to different to the typical cakepie style. I think its a slip of the tongue from excitement that the new last minute plan has worked. and in his excitement, he posts that not realising. This is obviously very subjective, so I won't push it further. I am hoping the links between cakepie, and definite mafia (OmniEulogy & Chromatically) is enough to seal the deal. In the end, he has another 5 or 6 posts. Most of it is junk. Says a bunch of crap about his night philosphy posting. which conveniently promotes no activity, so town start day 2 with no knowledge. Again why I am posting this huge text. 7 Serial Killer + Show Spoiler + Kickstart + Show Spoiler + Sorry for keeping this goign. but if i am to die. i think this in particular needs to come out. I think KICKSTART is the serial killer. I am too tired (5:10am) to do a similar case structure to the mafia, so i hope someone reads this and builds upon it. Essentially I accused Threesr of maybe being a serial killer for exhibiting several traits. Kickstart is rpetty much doing the same thing but worse (lurks more (less content).. bandwagons (check the vote history) and offers no opinions of value. Going through his post history quickly (no pasted quotes) He comments on lurking... standard fare says Threesr can be either alignment (what help is this) Admits he has nothing to add. Bandwagons Spag Does NOT reply to questions addressed to him. If you read Omni/Chorma/Cakepie posts. they include him in list of potential scum.. i.e. they dont associate him as mafia. he definitely doesnt play like his meta games.. many ppl int eh therad have commented that. the logical suggestion is.. he is on his own team... SERIAL KILLER And just in case you didnt know.. Kickstart has played in a similar setup newbie game before (ie. the 13 roles known at start, but qty of each role unknown) and taht game had 3 mafia and 1 SK. 8. Caveat + Show Spoiler + I do *think* Kickstart is the SK.. but I certainly do not know this. There could be a 4th mafia instead. If that is the case. I would investigae OrangeRemi in more detail. He has flown under the radar (even with Cakepies token vote which successfully drew no attention).. I think no attention was drawn, because one.. the vote was hidden in text and two.. orangeremi never pulled cakepie into line about the phone. i.e. cakepie was never questioned etc? Isnt that abnormal? If someone votes me.. i certainly question them. however, remi didnt.... WHY? and then thre is this on p34 i think. On December 21 2012 21:23 Orangeremi wrote: Couldn't the same be said for scum and possible blue roles? And what's the difference between information revealed earlier as opposed to later? It's revealed regardless. This is jsut plain weird.. he wants all the town info out during night, when mafia can kill ppl. either inexperience or leading town astray due to motives? please investigate. Orangeremi also has a weird quote. im surprised no1 else picked up on and followed On December 20 2012 19:02 Orangeremi wrote: This is getting exciting. Two in a row :D .... Completely reasonable. Clever, in fact. I'm happy you caught that, I never would've thought about it. I'm not sure what kind of rationale you're looking for. The only thing I can think of is how foolish it would be of me to post what I did if I were mafia. I'd have no reason to defend a non-mafia claiming to be one since he would be an obvious distraction and good lynch target for me to bandwagon without suspicion. His response is odd. I cant tell if thats shock, or indirectly admiting. Again, please investigate further. And as a reminder. [btw. its 5.20am.. sorry for all the typos.. im definitely not proof/spell checking this beat of a case the purpose of this diatribe is to enable towns people to identify the remaining scum in the game. Lastly, I am by no means proclaiming to be an expert [this is my first mafia game ever]. My motives stem from the lack of town activity. There are still people in this game I consider to be town that are minimal posting, and in occasions, sheeping. Though I don’t support premediated sheeping; I view the post/sheep behavior as a lack of confidence. I stated in a post before, some people have the personality to jump into a new activity with confidence. Others need time to soak it in and try to understand the processes. I think the quiet towns people fall into the second category; hence, I hope this will give you the confidence to push your reads and apply pressure. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
Worth a good long look. ----- OmniEulogy: Seems more suspicious to me in hindsight, with the benefit of voting analysis. First votes corazon, although long after the initial accusations there, and conveniently after corazon's possible "scumslip", although crafted to be primarly on the "slip" rather than other aspects of his play. Could be carefully spaced to be later than Aquanim. Particularly strange that: On December 20 2012 19:47 OmniEulogy wrote: Till then Corazon is still my #1 read. without unvoting... what?! Other vote is the fairly quick follow-up to Aquanim's sudden push on Spag. Like Aquanim, not much else to work with in terms of other players. Very scary to consider the possibility of him working in concert with Aquanim as the scumteam. ----- OrangeRemi: I will be hoping for a lot more in D2. Held up patiently against my pressure vote in D1, choosing not to jump into anything in haste at all. Inspecting his filter in relation to the whole thread will reveal that he is present and paying attention, watching and waiting, and hopefully analyzing. The no lynch was a terrible idea, but I can understand a newbie view of preferring to avoid a mislynch. But now with all the information from D1 and the voting patterns, there should be enough for him to start forming some thoughts and opinions, if not full cases. I don't think it is possible to wait for any more certainty. Will look to judge on if he delivers, if he has indeed been watching and thinking. | ||
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
The Spaghetticus wagon I obviously have a different perspective on this to anyone else, since I know without question the alignment of the person who started the wagon. The final votecount: Spaghetticus (7): Aquanim, OmniEulogy, Mocsta, cakepie, Kickstart, Chromatically, shz cDgCorazon (2): threesr, Sylencia threesr (2): FatChunk, cDgCorazon FatChunk (1): Orangeremi OmniEulogy (1): Spaghetticus Basically, I think I'd expect two scum on the Spaghetticus wagon, and one off it. Why there weren't three scum on the wagon: + Show Spoiler + Three scum on the wagon would only really make sense if they were trying to drive attention away from a scumbuddy who was going to be lynched, there's no real reason to commit that hard otherwise. This was the state of voting just before I made the Spag case: threesr (3): FatChunk, Mocsta, cDgCorazon cDgCorazon (6): Aquanim, Chromatically, OmniEulogy, Sylencia, shz, threesr Orangeremi (1): cakepie Not voting (3): Kickstart, Orangeremi, Spaghetticus Corazon is by far looking the most likely to be lynched - I think that wagon was losing traction, but there weren't any other serious accusations floating around. Threesr is also an outside possibility. Neither of these were voting for Spag at any point. Why one scum is plausible, but less likely: + Show Spoiler + Simply looking at the proportions of players on and off the wagon. With Spag obviously not voting for himself and Threesr and Sylencia inactive, there are only three remaining players (FC, Corazon and Orangeremi). Two of these three being scum is, I think, unlikely though not inconceivable. Disclaimer: If Threesr or Sylencia is scum one of the others could easily be as well. Why zero scum is very unlikely: + Show Spoiler + Same as above, but more so. As for my opinions on who actually behaved scummy around the lynch, OmniEulogy and Shz hopped on the wagon unconvincingly (Omni said he had better reads, Shz' vote didn't really matter), and the behaviour of FC and Orangeremi was decidedly sketchy (FC tried to make town cred from the mislynch, Orange contributed very little). Of course, there's also threesr and Sylencia who weren't there at all. Miscellanea: On December 22 2012 08:27 cakepie wrote: Contrast with my vote on OrangeRemi which is a stated pressure vote to force activity, and which I stuck to for a good while, to patiently gauge a longer-term reaction from him. (More on that later, hopefully) It's my view that stating that a vote is a pressure vote removes a great deal of its ability to actually cause pressure. Orangeremi didn't look like he was under much pressure day one. | ||
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Chromatically
United States1700 Posts
I haven't read your whole case yet but.. wow | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
Sylencia: got a free pass D1 for being away, but had better start contributing. Looking okay so far in N1. ----- On Corazon: Reanalysis of his defense of Spaghetticus, as well as they way he has conducted himself since, lifts a lot of the suspicion cast on him based on his earlier play, which can be explained as coming from an uncertain newbie. As for the "slip", a simple mistake could be just that -- a simple mistake. I am willing to evaluate him afresh based on how he steps up his play henceforth. | ||
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Mocsta
Australia9388 Posts
On December 22 2012 08:56 Chromatically wrote: Mocsta, you think I'm in a scumteam... with OmniEulogy? I haven't read your whole case yet but.. wow Its pretty simple. If you disagree, post a counter/retort. Whoever is left, can try and piece it together. | ||
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Chromatically
United States1700 Posts
Lynch OmniEulogy unless he provides a very good defense to my case AND a good explanation for his slip. Probable lynch of shz. If OE flips red, there's lots of association to be made between him and shz. | ||
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Dandel Ion
Austria17960 Posts
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Dandel Ion
Austria17960 Posts
Day 2 ![[image loading]](http://farm7.staticflickr.com/6025/5956508571_3e1eb4953b_z.jpg) The sun rises over Rome. Every good Christian should stay at home during the night, since sinners hide in the shadows. Newton was on a visit in Rome for a highly scientific and intellectual debate. The whole day, he conversed with Galileo and his peers. He went to sleep a bit later than would be advisable, and somebody was already hiding in the hotel's closet. In the morning, the maid found a lifeless body that had an Apple jammed into its mouth. A note has been left on his body, reading: "Gravity this, you heretic!". Mocsta, as Sir Isaac "Issac" Newton the Jailkeeper has been killed! It is now day 2. Dayphase means lynchphase! You have to vote until deadline, which is in 48 hours. | ||
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Mocsta
Australia9388 Posts
It was pretty obvious this was going to happen, hence my essay to you all. I know it is going to be a mission to read it all, but please try, it took a lot of effort to make. | ||
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Chromatically
United States1700 Posts
Well, let's hear it. | ||
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