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I'd say I'm an unlikely nightkill, but may as well get these thoughts out there anyway.
The Spaghetticus wagon
I obviously have a different perspective on this to anyone else, since I know without question the alignment of the person who started the wagon.
The final votecount:
Spaghetticus (7): Aquanim, OmniEulogy, Mocsta, cakepie, Kickstart, Chromatically, shz
cDgCorazon (2): threesr, Sylencia
threesr (2): FatChunk, cDgCorazon
FatChunk (1): Orangeremi
OmniEulogy (1): Spaghetticus
Basically, I think I'd expect two scum on the Spaghetticus wagon, and one off it.
Why there weren't three scum on the wagon:
+ Show Spoiler +
Three scum on the wagon would only really make sense if they were trying to drive attention away from a scumbuddy who was going to be lynched, there's no real reason to commit that hard otherwise. This was the state of voting just before I made the Spag case:
threesr (3): FatChunk, Mocsta, cDgCorazon
cDgCorazon (6): Aquanim, Chromatically, OmniEulogy, Sylencia, shz, threesr
Orangeremi (1): cakepie
Not voting (3): Kickstart, Orangeremi, Spaghetticus
Corazon is by far looking the most likely to be lynched - I think that wagon was losing traction, but there weren't any other serious accusations floating around. Threesr is also an outside possibility. Neither of these were voting for Spag at any point.
Why one scum is plausible, but less likely:
+ Show Spoiler +
Simply looking at the proportions of players on and off the wagon. With Spag obviously not voting for himself and Threesr and Sylencia inactive, there are only three remaining players (FC, Corazon and Orangeremi). Two of these three being scum is, I think, unlikely though not inconceivable.
Disclaimer: If Threesr or Sylencia is scum one of the others could easily be as well.
Why zero scum is very unlikely:
+ Show Spoiler +
Same as above, but more so.
As for my opinions on who actually behaved scummy around the lynch, OmniEulogy and Shz hopped on the wagon unconvincingly (Omni said he had better reads, Shz' vote didn't really matter), and the behaviour of FC and Orangeremi was decidedly sketchy (FC tried to make town cred from the mislynch, Orange contributed very little). Of course, there's also threesr and Sylencia who weren't there at all.
Miscellanea:
On December 22 2012 08:27 cakepie wrote:
Contrast with my vote on OrangeRemi which is a stated pressure vote to force activity, and which I stuck to for a good while, to patiently gauge a longer-term reaction from him. (More on that later, hopefully)
It's my view that stating that a vote is a pressure vote removes a great deal of its ability to actually cause pressure. Orangeremi didn't look like he was under much pressure day one.
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GG Mocsta. I don't think it was 100% obvious you were up for the kill personally, but in any case thanks for all the effort you've put in.
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I'd still like an answer to this question:
On December 22 2012 06:49 Aquanim wrote:
@Orangeremi: What did you think of Spaghetticus' defence to my case?
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As above, so below: waiting on OE's response before I vote.
Just to make this clear: if you have been roleblocked you should say so. We gain more from you revealing this than hiding it.
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On December 22 2012 13:18 cakepie wrote:... Also a quick note for those thinking about possible SK: not compulsive kill in this setup In my opinion, there is very little at the moment to suggest if there Descartes is in the game or not, and I do not feel that we should devote too much energy into figuring that out just yet. ...
This is definitely true. It's almost not in the town's best interest to search for SK earlygame, I think, for two reasons:
- SK has a great deal more freedom to play like town early game, since he has no scumbuddies to protect. In hunting an SK we'll probably just hit townies.
- If town gets into trouble (say, LYLO against two or three scum), town and SK become unholy allies against the mafia (neither of them win if mafia get a majority, after all.)
If town gets into a comfortable position, having lynched all or all but one of the mafia, then we start thinking about looking for an SK. Before that it's not a constructive use of our time.
I was really concerned about the lack of scrutiny on myself throughout D1, and it does not help that when something as finally brought up, it had to come from a dead man's mouth. Corazon, OrangeRemi, Aquanim and maybe sylencia seem to be around atm. What is your take on Mocsta's read on me?
Anyhow, I'm going to stick around in the thread for a bit now while I toss around all the possibilities in my mind. Feel free to ask for my thoughts on anything.
IMO you didn't draw much scrutiny day 1 because of the sheer size of your posts. They were pretty imposing and contained enough worthwhile content that you didn't draw anyone's attention.
I didn't and don't have much of a town read on you, but I think that the idea that you and Chromatic are both scum is a little hard to swallow. The two of you, Mocsta and myself accounted for a fair proportion of day 1's constructive and probing posts. Either or both of you could have contributed a lot less without standing out, and a lot less would have got done day 1 as a result.
I know from my own experience it's very easy to suspect those leading the thread as scum with a mastermind plot, and very occasionally perhaps some of them are - but far more often scum are just blending in with the crowd.
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The OP wrote:
All roleblocks will result in the target being notified.
He was notified that he was roleblocked. This does not mean he has a PR.
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@Orangeremi: What do you think of Kick's contributions in the last few hours?
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On December 22 2012 16:48 Aquanim wrote:
@Orangeremi: What do you think of Kick's contributions in the last few hours?
EBWOP: Specifically, how have they altered your read on him?
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It hasn't really changed much from what?
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@Sylencia Who do you think you would have voted for if you'd been here near the day 1 lynch?
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Well, I went through and read Mocsta's case on Chromatic. It seems to largely be based on that "scum tell vs. scum read" business, after which he says that Chromatic's following pressure on Omni is an attempt to distance themselves and escape suspicion. Personally, I think the tell vs. read thing is pretty farfetched, Omni doesn't strike me as being exact and precise with his nomenclature.
After that, the case seems to become "Chromatic is scum, therefore this is a bus, therefore Chromatic is scum".
I'd like to hear some other opinions on that case.
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EBWOP: Forgot to emphasise a couple of things:
- The entire Chromatic case is based on Omni being scum.
- I don't think Omni would necessarily be consistent in his use of the words "tell" and "read".
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I don't really like how FatChunk has slipped under the radar since the suspicions of him expressed at the end of day one. I have some serious problems with his end of day play:
Spag - I felt I should elaborate on this one since he's getting lynched tonight. While I agree that he has not shared a lot of his own analysis, neither have a lot of people. Also, he mentions that his analysis is in the background and will present findings as they arise. If he is not lying, this could be very useful to town. He has at least been active in trying to promote discussion, and defending people under pressure comes as a sideaffect of good judgement and rational thinking, something I respect. While I don't clear him completely of being mafia, I think it is more than likely he is town and we gain nothing from voting out Spag.
Everyone keeps mentioning that spag is appearing useful while not contributing. Spag has argued that he has been lighting fires under lurkers to gain information. Is this not considered scumhunting, whether direct or indirect? He seems to be contributing in ways that are very obviously pro-town. I do not really see conclusive evidence. But who knows, maybe thats what town's supposed to do on day1. Anyway, we would have stood much more benefit and less to lose by lynching theesr - we would have confirmed theesr as town/scum and in turn shed some light on spag's innocence. Now hes gone.
This defence of Spaghetticus keeps referencing Spag's own defensive post, but not the actual content of Spag's filter. Defending what we now know to be a townie isn't necessarily scummy, though there can be definite upside for scum.
However, I'd expect a townie to read the actual posts of a scum suspect and make their own decisions rather than relying on the suspected player's defence (which is obviously going to distort reality in their favour).
I also have no idea how lynching threesr would have given us any idea as to Spaghetticus' alignment.
And since the lynch, he's made one post partially dropping his suspicions on Threesr (because he got put under a little pressure for having them) and on myself. This smells like a scum trying to cover over his past indiscretions and hope no-one notices.
##Vote: FatChunk
If you're town FC, don't be scared by people telling you not to make cases on people because they're "easy targets" - just make a good and thorough case. If you have confidence that will shine through and our read on you will dramatically improve.
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If you think Orangeremi is scummy enough/needs pressure enough for a vote, throw it down. Asking for validation from other players before you stick your neck out isn't exactly inspiring confidence in your towniness.
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@Sylencia: Who's your top scumread at the moment? If it's Omni, who's your second?
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On December 23 2012 06:15 FatChunk wrote:
...
Mocsta has some great points, I find it very hard to provide new insight when cases are well-fabricated and I agree with them. While I do not think the evidence is inconclusive against Chromatically (while I always shared a suspicion of him) Omni is a real issue.
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I don't quite understand what you've said here. Are you suspicious of Chromatically or not?
This being said, I would like to hear from sHz and Sylencia, two players who have been posting infrequently and pretty much agreeeing or disagreeing with others without providing reasons. I honestly don't know why these players have been given a free pass, with nobody prodding them during their time afk.
Does anyone agree with any of these points? What are your opinions of shz and sylencia?
I'm really not a fan of shz at this point, for largely the reasons you and Chromatic have raised.
I don't think Syl is the most active poster at the best of times (on a quick read of XXXII, where he was VT). I'm prepared to give Syl a little more time to get his head in the game and start contributing and committing to reads... my patience is running out, though.
Aqua, I thought there was a relationship between theesr and spag, as spag was advocating theesr as town. If we lynched threesr and he turned town, you can probably expect spag to be town too. However if we lynched spag, and he turned town, we would be stuck with the non-useful townie.
Like I've said, scum defending some of the weak townies is by no means unheard of, so I don't entirely agree with you here. I'm glad to see some rationale for this though.
I haven't seen quite enough yet to justify moving my vote, but do keep posting sensibly and looking for scum.
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On December 23 2012 08:35 Chromatically wrote:
Aqua, do you think that FC is scummier than shz/Omni or are you just pressuring?
At this point? Pressure. Obviously, I reserve the right to change my mind if he stops contributing or starts posting rubbish.
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Okay, we're more than halfway through day 2 and this is becoming silly. (Most of) the lurkers are still lurking and we don't have a clear idea of who our lynch candidates are yet.
I'd really like to put some direction into this day. Who is here?
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I think I disagree with you on preferences here. I too like both Orange and Shz as lynches, but Orange's behaviour around the day one lynch is pretty ridiculous.
His first post after the Spag case is:
The case for Spag is huge, I'm leaning towards that. It's really the only case so far that has actually made me consider voting something other than no lynch (my previous top choice). I'd currently rate my voting choices at 1. Spag 2. Kickstar 3. FatChunk with a possibility of no lynch if they have sufficient evidence to the contrary.
He then proceeds to vote no-lynch after saying some other random stuff.
When he comes back in the morning, he votes FatChunk. With absolutely no reason.
So, did he switch from Spag because he found Spag's defence convincing?
On December 22 2012 12:30 Orangeremi wrote:Show nested quote +On December 22 2012 06:49 Aquanim wrote:
@Orangeremi: What did you think of Spaghetticus' defence to my case? I wasn't swayed either way by it. Your case was a tough one to argue and he tried. I don't feel like he succeeded. When he answered my question about his defense it seemed to me even fluffier as well. ##Vote: OmniEulogy
Nope.
As for his read on Kick:
On December 22 2012 19:04 Orangeremi wrote:Show nested quote +On December 22 2012 17:39 Aquanim wrote:
It hasn't really changed much from what? Wasn't convince he's town before, still not convinced he is. No reads on being something else, either.
This was in reference to Orange's read on Kick before his posts day 2. Kick only posted once during the night, and I don't see how a #2 scum read turns into a null with that one post.
Basically, the only reason I can see for voting FatChunk is to avoid being on the Spag wagon, and the only reason for that is to avoid responsibility for lynching Spag. As for why he voted FC rather than Kick, FC was the more generally acceptable target at that time I think.
In fact:
##Unvote
##Vote: Orangeremi
Orangeremi, explain yourself. Now.
@FatChunk: Still want to see more from you.
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On December 23 2012 12:55 shz wrote:
...
What does that mean? If Chrome is scum, I don't think Omni is. If Chrome is town, Omni should be too.
So you're saying that you think Omni is town regardless of Chromatic's alignment. Could you justify this some more?
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EPT
