My latest game suffered from a lack of playtime, but now I *should* be able to devote more time I'm still in the military, but now going through the last weeks, so we don't have much to do anymore. Let's hope this game starts reasonably fast.
Paranoia Mafia
Forum Index > TL Mafia |
Xatalos
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My latest game suffered from a lack of playtime, but now I *should* be able to devote more time I'm still in the military, but now going through the last weeks, so we don't have much to do anymore. Let's hope this game starts reasonably fast. | ||
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On November 24 2012 00:27 marvellosity wrote: A lot of people's attentions are focused on Chrono Trigger atm ^_^ Yeah, may be... But fortunately it's starting to fill up now. | ||
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On November 27 2012 09:13 marvellosity wrote: naturally i died first in chrono /in Welcome! Rest assured: if I'm Mafia, you'll die first night as well Hehe.. Even Ace is playing. This is starting to look pretty nice. | ||
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On November 27 2012 12:57 ShiaoPi wrote: Midterms done ! /in :D Watch out or I'm going to frame you to be lynched again, haha | ||
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On November 27 2012 10:47 JingleHell wrote: Looks better now. I think you'll appreciate the extra-special filter link I gave you. Haha, the unfortunate reality. | ||
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On November 27 2012 20:32 marvellosity wrote: can we not be putting ideas in people's heads please Isn't it more fun to start the mindgames before the actual game begins? | ||
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We'll see how that goes | ||
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On November 30 2012 08:59 Blazinghand wrote: ##vote Xatalos I'm from the government and I'm here to help. Heheh.. What ever should I do. Clearly I've been found out! | ||
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On November 30 2012 09:17 DarthPunk wrote: Yeah. But your not as new. Also I am confident in my ability to catch you should you havae had the misfortune to roll scum in this game. So I am not really worried about you. What I AM worried about is town being all retarded and lynching the noobiest player day one (again, no offense) Haha, none taken. Indeed I'm one of the least experienced players here. And already with 2 votes Go me! | ||
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IF I had to lynch one player right now, it would be DoYouHas. Why? In my earlier game with him (Game of Thrones) he was town and I was Mafia. In that game, he became our priority night kill quite fast: his tone was very decisive, he pushed the discussion forward and he was overall a threatening presence. In fact, his first guess at a Mafia member was correct. Now we arrive at the current game. Any way I look at it, his attitude is pretty different. First we have this post: On November 30 2012 08:25 DoYouHas wrote: Hi everyone, looking forward to an active game. It's nice to recognize many of the names on the playerlist even though I haven't played in a while. I'm happy to see Marv/BH/VE in here. With those 3 there is no reason the thread should be inactive. I'm perhaps overly cautious of Ace. His reputation obviously precedes him. Never having played with him paired with the knowledge that he can be a devastatingly effective scum leader makes me a little paranoid. As always, I am in favor of lurker lynching on day1 unless a better candidate shows up (which it inevitably will). This post reeks of vagueness and indecisiveness - the complete opposite of his earlier game. The meek tone of this post is also in contrast with his earlier aggressive playstyle. What's more, this is a completely "forgettable" post - the kind of post that Mafia love to open with. On November 30 2012 09:10 DoYouHas wrote: Well that is a suspicious way of responding to BH's vote. ##Vote Xatalos This post really bothers me. It *might* be trolling, but it seems more serious than the previous post by Blazinghand. Even so, it doesn't really offer anything more than "I'm jumping on a promising bandwagon just in case". This kind of half-hearted bandwagoning is something usually done by Mafia to appear "active" while keeping an easy escape route in case things go bad. In fact, I can already cast my vote based on this. If the lynch happened right now, he would be my choice. ##Vote DoYouHas | ||
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On November 30 2012 09:49 DoYouHas wrote: @Darth, what I remember about Xata is that he is not a bad player. With 3-4 games under his belt he may be one of the newest in the game, but I would not call him a complete noob. What I see are multiple posts that seem uncomfortable and uncertain. His attempt at making a joke out of BH's vote just seems awkward. Making light of confrontation is classic avoidance behavior, something that I think is more likely to be true because of the awkward phrasing. You could very well be right that this is just noob Xata being genuinely uncomfortable with the start of the game. But you are foolish if you dismiss such classically scummy behavior just because there is a different explanation. PS: I don't think you are going to like me very much given your advice to Xata. I spend quite a bit of time on my posts regardless of alignment. Ah, just my luck. A new post while I'm typing... I'm not sure if I get much of a read from this post. What I find weird is the focus on a *possibility* of a Mafia reasoning behind my posts, even though it's not much to go with, considering the equal/better reasons for them being townie. And why no actual reasoning for the vote until now? + That last statement is just unnecessarily defensive... | ||
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On November 30 2012 12:23 wherebugsgo wrote: Why does Xatalos seem scummy but has received the most attention, but not that many votes? Are you implying it's scummy that I haven't received that many votes despite being the "most suspected"? That if I were town, there would already be a big bandwagon on me? I don't think Mafia would risk jumping a bandwagon this uncertain, especially too early or with too much force. DYH's vote still seems bandwagony to me, though, given his (original) lack of reasoning behind it and overall half-hearted attitude. Right now I see DarthPunk, austinmcc and debears as the most likely townies. I would also include marvellosity, but something is bothering me. Probably it's the fact that his posts have been too vague/fluff to really contribute so far... Although I might be just extra careful, since he was my coach earlier. And WBG, why are you only asking questions? I can't say it's either townish or scummy, really, but I'd like to see your own opinions and reasoning instead of pushing the responsibility to others. Especially since it is a Mafia tactic I've used to focus on asking questions. | ||
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On November 30 2012 20:42 Ace wrote: You've got some pretty quick town reads there. Explain. Very well. First of all, those three have been active in the discussion - and on multiple topics. It's possible for Mafia to actively engage in the discussions, but it's more likely that they would be careful and observant rather than having the initiative / naturally talking about what's happening. From my experience, Mafia tend to hide behind silence and carefully talk about topics that fit them, not freely discuss anything. DarthPunk - Very active and transparent about his opinions. Clearly doesn't hesitate about posting. austinmcc - Analytic and focused posting. Looks like he's actively pushing the game forward. debears - Not as sure about him, but there are some posts that indicate he's trying to actively figure out players (completely unnecessary for Mafia): On November 30 2012 08:09 debears wrote: Hey marv is there a way to go back further than 10 pages in your posting history? I can only go back to GSL and I was wanting to go back further to see something On November 30 2012 10:39 debears wrote: Actually marv I have a slight town read on you Ok guys I looked up Marv's previous games for games where he says he is town early on. He has not done in his last few games as scum. He has done it twice as town What does this mean? Something so small as saying you are town is most likely a subconscious thing. Sure, marv could have decided to do it this game, but it was right at game start. No one else had said anything like it Boom look at that pro analysis. Links in the spoiler + Show Spoiler + http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=381440&user=140487 Town. Here is Mario Mini Mafia, Marv does not make any mention of being town http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/postmessage.php?quote=239&topic_id=382922 Town. Here marv states his posting is pro town, but does not call himself town in chrono trigger http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=376602&user=140487 Scum. Here marv does not state town in his scum game is GSL http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=363625&user=140487 Scum. Death note- no mention of being town when marv is scum http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=352668&user=140487 Town. States he is outright town On November 30 2012 13:04 debears wrote: I wouldn't be suspicious of you if you were trying to get him lynched. I am suspicious of you for saying "hey we should be wary of this guy because his scum play can be good" for no reason at all in the beginning of the game. You signed up for this game knowing that there are a lot of experienced players, yet you feel like you need to bring this up? And specifically only for Ace when others like BH, VE, and marv have been around a while? So you came into the game beingnaturally more suspicious of Ace, yet you haven't scrutinized any of his posting so far? What do you think of his lack of taking control of town? | ||
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On November 30 2012 21:10 ShiaoPi wrote: I would also like to know why you chose to share them now xatalos It's because I remembered an interesting strategy in a game I observed (Wheel of Fortune). This post explains it well: On April 24 2012 21:32 Bluelightz wrote: Toad, I know that your not Okay with this, but at least im going to explain how im going to try to find scum :/ 1 Mr Zentor 2 SamuelLJackson (Toadesstern+sandroba hydra) 3 Radfield 4 Snarfs 5 VisceraEyes 6 Phagga 7 prplhz 8 strongandbig 9 Forumite 10 Sbrubbles 11 marvellosity 13 Ace By cutting down the townies who I think are town, There are less people to read,etc. I guess you may just call this by process of elimination. Also, your exaggerating very much, I'm not calling 'EVERYONE' Town. On my suspicions, I have a sneaking feeling that prp is scum, MrZentor I'm debating as well. | ||
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On November 30 2012 21:57 marvellosity wrote: pro-tip Xata, BL does it wrong by actually telling us his townreads. Keep them to yourself unless there's a particularly good reason is generally better. Haha, getting coached again I'd just like to think that sharing information is the way to go. Mafia benefit if everyone keeps to their own opinions - especially if people take their opinions with them to their graves... A flip from a transparent player is much more informative than a flip from someone who didn't reveal his opinions. Although I guess keeping Mafia in the dark can have its uses. On November 30 2012 22:03 Ace wrote: Xatalos, debears and austin316 kinda butted heads already. Austin called him out on his reasons for voting. It's really early in the game - don't you think that should cause you to hedge your bets on both of them being town? Or did you just skim their posts without reading who they were responding to? I'm not completely sure what you mean. Are you saying they're both town because they argued early? I haven't really thought about their relationship (town/town, town/Mafia or Mafia/Mafia), rather I just looked at their filters seperately. On November 30 2012 22:30 ShiaoPi wrote: Xata marv already said why it is illadvised to share townreads without a good reason. So what is your reason? None of the mentioned townreads of your are in danger of getting lynched (deadline isnt that soon anyway). Nor have you cut down the number of players to figure out scum. So why do it? Really see no reason to do that. I know you to be a better player than just mindlessly share stuff like that as your contribution. Every time I was Mafia, I had that pressuring feeling when people started sharing town reads. It kind of reduces the hiding space for Mafia, since they are more likely to be targeted and pressured after the pool of suspects becomes smaller. It's also a fact that Mafia start the game with an information advantage, and the faster they start losing that advantage, the better. Basically time is against Mafia and they get weaker as the game continues. Keeping reads to yourself can help them by delaying the decrease of their advantage. As a sidenote, you keep saying I'm "too good" to use suboptimal strategies or whatever. Keep in mind that I was Mafia when we last played together. Naturally I knew the alignments of everyone and had a very easy time making reads. It was extremely easy to bus heist since I KNEW he was truly Mafia. And naturally I was much more careful about how suspicious I might appear by saying something. | ||
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On December 01 2012 03:03 debears wrote: @Xatal I don't think the problem is giving reads so much, as long as you have good reasoning behind them. Saying "X is town because I like his posting", for instance, not beneficial. You're follow up explaining why was good though. That's the important part Hmm, I guess so. Certainly it'd be more useful to give a town read with strong evidence backing it up. I've been in a situation where I placed a town read on the most active Mafia player and never believed he was Mafia until it was already too late. My intuition isn't infallible after all... Even so, it seems more productive to focus on those players who don't appear interested in pushing the discussion. | ||
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On December 01 2012 03:09 VisceraEyes wrote: I suppose no one but me is interested in Ace's marv vote, right? Everyone scared or something? Ace care to share with the class? Actually, I don't think it means anything. I've seen veteran players casting random votes before just to possibly get a reaction or something. A vote without any reasoning is basically a throwaway vote in any case. | ||
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On November 30 2012 14:42 VisceraEyes wrote: Good stuff guys. Good, good stuff. For anyone who hasn't played with him before, Ace is going to pop in about twice or thrice a cycle. He's not going to try and lead anyone. He's also not going to FOLLOW anyone. He's going to play Mafia. If he's scum, he's going to fucking own us. If he's town, he's going to be right but will probably lose because he can't stand people not playing on his level and will lose interest. That about sum it up sir? So let's just drop the topic of Ace as he's made all of what...1 one-liner post? We'll resume discussion of the man once he throws some content up in this piece. dabears, I'm more interested in you damning DYH for having an opinion on Ace. The guy doesn't even HAVE any posts to discredit, so why are you so concerned about him trying to do so this early anyway? Do you know something I don't about Ace's alignment? That's the only thing that's jumped out at me so far - everything else is chaff and while I don't necessarily mind it, it's certainly not helping anyone find scum (happy Bugs?) I'm going to bed guys. This post does actually have a point about debears... But VisceraEyes doesn't pursue it anyhow, just points it out (like some other players did) and never speaks of it again. The rest is pretty much safe-to-say meaningless fluff. On December 01 2012 02:37 VisceraEyes wrote: Truth. Something to do with pack mentality, wanting to fit in, etc. etc. Reading what I've missed y'all, hopefully there's more than discussing whether or not people are going to sheep Ace. :/ A quite unnecessary and forgettable post. On December 01 2012 03:09 VisceraEyes wrote: I suppose no one but me is interested in Ace's marv vote, right? Everyone scared or something? Ace care to share with the class? Actually an "original" topic, but yet again safe to say and not really that productive. Feels like something Mafia might say to look like they're doing something, while actually not doing anything. I also dislike how none of his posts are connected... It's like he's posting the minimum required amount and avoiding commitment to anything. Overall, nothing decisive, but all of this leaves an uneasy feeling about VE for me. | ||
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On December 01 2012 03:38 VisceraEyes wrote: ##Vote: dabears Frankly I don't care about further explanation from dabears regarding this whole mess. I think he's said enough. The whole exchange between dabears and DYH is ridiculous in my opinion. People don't SHEEP Ace because he's known almost exclusively for his SCUM play. I've seen him really fucking own as town, but people don't know or care about that. Ace is known as a top-tier SCUM player, and so that's the image Ace conjures. The fact that dabears is all up in arms about DYH "discrediting" Ace is nonsense...not only had Ace barely posted anything at the time, but DYH explained his motivation TWICE and dabears still didn't relent, or verily even acknowledge said explanations. Also this post rings scumbells for me. Like...I don't know if it was meant to be a joke, but I think I know EXACTLY when marv started saying he's town at the outset of games, and it had nothing to do with his alignment at the time. Yet he's trying to pass off this post as some sort of actual analysis of marv's play? Simply by calling it analysis? Give me a break. Let's just kill it with fire, yeah? Hmm... How does it "ring scumbells" that debears made a far-fetched analysis about marvellosity? I just don't see the Mafia motive in that. I don't know why debears's persistence to pressure DYH is a Mafia motive either. All of this might not be optimal play, but I don't see any grand Mafia motive behind debears's play. On December 01 2012 03:59 VisceraEyes wrote: Given my most recent post on dabears Xata, are some of your suspicions assuaged? Dabears, meta isn't about people making specific posts as specific alignments, that shit is so fucking easy to fake. How about YOU read up on meta and then come and talk to me about it. Well, it's always good to post real content in my eyes. Maybe some of my suspicions faded, but I still don't have a good feeling about you (sorry ). Something about that post just feels forced... Like it were a tactical move to look better instead of actually having a beneficial effect on the thread. I'm used to blowing things out of proportions though. I'll have to consider my vote a lot more until I can be satisfied with having catched a strongly likely Mafia. | ||
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On December 01 2012 05:36 DoYouHas wrote: Xata - Let me get this straight. You've made a case on me which you immediately stopped pursuing (yet your vote is still there I would mention). You've made a case on VE without a vote or a real conclusion and you also look like you are going to drop this one as well with a parting, "I'm watching you, boy". You have given 3 townreads which are the easiest thing in the world to change your mind on. I'm finding it hard to know where you stand or what you are actually trying to do. What bothers me the most, what I am hung up on, and what I just can't seem to drop is your response to BH's vote and then your response to my vote. I have already pointed out how Xata's response to BH's vote is classic avoidance behavior. Town tends to get mad when someone votes them, they tend to deny, they tend to confront their accuser. Especially since it was a vet accusing a newer person, that is the kind of reaction I would expect. Then comes Xata's response to my vote: "Maybe I underestimated the usefulness of these fluff posts." AGAIN, he avoids the confrontation, he avoids saying that I am wrong. In fact, in both cases he is essentially saying that we are right, "jokingly" of course. Later his rather weak attempts at misrepresenting my argument against him pop up. - Accusing me of bandwagoning - My choice of voting Xata was largely based on a reaction of his after BH's vote. This brought the count of people voting Xata to 2, some bandwagon. - Accusing me of not providing reasoning with my vote - The reasoning was there with my vote. I thought that his way of answering BH's vote was highly suspicious. The later posts simply expanded upon that. - Accusing me of being half-hearted - Simply because I admit the possibility that what I read as scummy could also be the result of nooby uncertainty doesn't change that I think I'm right about this one. I also dislike the number of qualifying statements he has been putting in his posts recently: Many of you seem to have stopped suspecting Xata because he is accepting your coaching, or because he is starting to participate more and you are uncomfortable lynching an active poster. Xatalos is certainly not a passive mafia player (Newbie Mini XV filter). We are allowing Xata to take up a position where he is excused from multiple bad plays, suspicious behavior, and weak cases simply because some of you think he is a noob that needs to be coached instead of scum that needs to be lynched. You are wrong, I'm fairly confident I've found scum. Let's lynch Xatalos At the moment I don't have a strong lynch candidate. That being the case, I haven't touched my vote for some time. You're right that it's still for you, but right now I would rather lynch VisceraEyes. Especially comparing your and his recent posts I'd say VisceraEyes is more likely Mafia. VE's vote for debears was the most bandwagony (= scummy) vote so far, but this case you present against me doesn't strike me as a Mafia play. Since my vote is clearly bothering you, I can change it immediately. ##Unvote ##Vote VisceraEyes "Heheh.. What ever should I do. Clearly I've been found out!" Really... This is a big problem for you? Blazinghand's vote for me was clearly a troll and I responded to it with a troll post. I would normally have just ignored it, but the thread was full of trolling - I decided to make one joke post as well. I can't see at all why you would tunnel on a meaningless joke and base your suspicions around that. What should I say to you? There's no reasoning behind that post. You could just remove it from the thread (BH's votepost as well, in truth) and nothing of any importance would change. I didn't "avoid confrontation" by not responding to your "Well that is a suspicious way of responding to BH's vote". To be honest, I didn't even know if you were being serious. I hope that matter is now put into rest, since it's just a big waste of time arguing about it. I guess you're right about the part where I call you "bandwagony". I just looked at it this way: 1) Player A votes for me 2) Player B eagerly votes for me soon after without a real reason That just made me automatically think bandwagoning=scummy=lynch? But really, it's more a case of misunderstandings on both ends. You started suspecting me after that stupid post (for some reason) and I started suspecting you of bandwagoning (even though BH never even tried to get me lynched and it was only you who pursued my suspiciousness). So it's safe to say that you're no bandwagoner... I think it was wrong to call you "half-hearted" as well. It's starting to feel more like you're *overzealous* over something as petty as a troll one-liner. I have no idea how it got to the point where I'm confidently scum in your mind, but if this response didn't appease your zeal, I'm not sure what to think. Could Mafia really be so persistent and careless? I have some difficulty imagining that right now. I find it much more likely that Mafia would carefully wait for opportunities rather than push the discussion to a certain direction persistently. | ||
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On December 01 2012 07:20 marvellosity wrote: jesus, xatalos has played mafia so often You actually think I'm Mafia at the moment? How did that case of DYH convince you of anything? | ||
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Game of Thrones - Mafia - Win Newbie Mini VII - Town - Loss Newbie Mini XV - Mafia - Win Newbie Mini XXVI - Mafia - Loss Yeah, I've played a lot as Mafia. That's why I'm trying to develop myself as a town player, even though it's not working very well so far...... | ||
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On December 01 2012 07:27 marvellosity wrote: the insane number of qualifiers you use that i saw some times in that scum filter and not at all in your town filter that i found. Haha. I guess you mean Game of Thrones, where I was extremely indecisive and just followed behind others. But if you look at my later games as Mafia, I was very careful to appear consistent and decisive. I also never was in danger of being lynched (unless you count the end of XXVI where I was catched by a process of elimination). But I was under constant pressure in VII (as VT) and eventually lynched. Kind of like the situation is right now... For some reason I play a better townie as Mafia than as a real townie :/ | ||
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On December 01 2012 07:42 DoYouHas wrote: So Xata, you went from this post (probably the post I like best from you): to a troll post in the space of 16 minutes? Simply because MrZ told you to loosen up because being too uptight looks suspicious? What's your point really? I made one meaningless post that might have as well not existed at all. I guess the overall atmosphere of the thread (trollfest) had some effect on me and I just typed something without thinking much about it. After that I've focused solely on figuring out players though. What more can I say about that? | ||
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On December 01 2012 07:51 marvellosity wrote: No, I mean the filter that DYH linked. see the stuff on bold. I also went through 3 pages of your town filter and did not see a single instance of you giving out any sort of town read. It was bang bang bang this guy is scummy, this guy is scummy, this guy is scummy. Not a single townread, not one. Even in the spoiler you're giving out townreads as mafia. Aha... Well, it's impossible for me to be 100% certain about anything. Especially early Day 1 - if you didn't notice, I've usually arrived to the thread about 10 hours after the game started, but now I was online right at the start. It's much harder to make any good reads based on the first posts (and they were all just trolling this time around). With that said, let's look at VII... On April 13 2012 00:31 Xatalos wrote: I have a hard time figuring out the 3 Mafia from this back-and-forth action, but if we manage to find even one today, it should make it easy to figure out the rest tomorrow. ArcticFox, I want you to post more. Right now the majority seem to be in favor of your lynch, and unless you share your opinions and prove us your innocence, I'm pretty sure you will be lynched at this rate. If you are town, you have nothing to lose by being more active and useful. If you are Mafia, you of course have the right to be silent, but it will probably lead to your lynch. Also Acrofales and yomi, I want to hear why you disregard my case against ArcticFox and actually even have a town read on him! I can understand not being very suspicious of him, but if you're not suspicious AT ALL, I don't know what to say... I'm also calling it now: likely either yomi or Dittert is Mafia. Why? It just seems way too convenient that they lurked all game and SUDDENLY appeared to post RIGHT after I called them out. My suspicion? Could very well be Mafia lurking the thread and only posting when required... I wouldn't call my posting all that decisive. I'm going back and forth a lot with my opinions and questioning myself (see above). I also definitely did share town reads. For example: On April 16 2012 07:12 Xatalos wrote: Okay, I'm not as good with formatting (or logic, I guess..) as KharadBanar and Acrofales, but I'll try doing a similar overview analysis based on my own thoughts. First of all, we have two confirmed townies: ArcticFox and BroodKingEXE. I'm mostly interested in ArcticFox's filter, because he was A) killed by Mafia, not town B) more contributive. I can see why they would choose to kill ArcticFox: his posting style is solid, convincing and logical. His top Mafia reads are yomi, HiroPro and Dittert - although you can't deduce too much from that, as they could have killed him just to cast suspicion upon these players. Even so, I would say the chances are high at least one of these players is Mafia. I also know I am town myself. I'm not sure if I should take it into account in my probabilities, but since KharadBanar did so, I'm going to do the same. I would also say that Acrofales, KharadBanar and vonKlaust have been overall so informative, logical and pro-town in their posting, that their chances of being Mafia are pretty close to zero (in my mind). Considering I'm completely unwilling to lynch any of them right now, I'm going to make their chances of being Mafia 0% to make this a bit simpler. What do we have left now? Only 6 players, of which 3 are certainly Mafia. So, even if there would be a random lynch among these 6 players, it would mean a 50% chance of hitting a Mafia. After hitting one Mafia, it would become infinitely easier to find out the remaining Mafia. The real problem is: among these 6 players, everyone is at least somewhat suspicious. I would say there is a reasonable chance for any of these players being Mafia, although some do rise above the others. The average chance (without any other modifiers) to hit a Mafia in this group is 50%, which isn't too bad already. 1/6 is 17%, so I'm going to take that as the starting point and decrease or increase this percentage based on my own thoughts: - Willz: 10% (has made some suspicious moves, but has almost always defended himself in a very pro-town manner by tackling the issues straight at their core and not resorting to WIFOM, distraction, OMGUS or further suspicious moves - he has also contributed to the thread in an informative and logical fashion) - imallinson: 15% (has been mostly flying under the radar, not bringing himself to the forefront unless forced to, and not contributing more than absolutely necessary to continue flying under the radar) - Funcmode: 17% (it's very hard to say anything about him, since he has an empty filter so far - definitely anti-town play, but not necessarily Mafia play) - HiroPro: 18% (has been somewhat lurking and flying under the radar for the whole game, posting very cautiously and warily when he posts at all - small bonus suspicion for being suspected by ArcticFox) - yomi: 20% (started off the game with heavy lurking, finally started to post at the conclusion of Day 1 as he was in danger of being lynched, continued to post in Night 1 as he was in danger of being Vigi shot, never really contributed unless forced to, although I find his latest post about Dittert & HiroPro as a Mafia team as interesting and a bit redeeming for him - small bonus suspicion for being suspected by ArcticFox) - Dittert: 20% (was useless/anti-town during the whole Day 1, went lurking for the conclusion of the Day 1 lynch, came back after it to accuse everyone who voted for BroodKingEXE - and claimed town credibility for not voting for BroodKingEXE himself, then stopped his already non-existent contribution and martyred himself without even trying to get himself cleared of the lynch - small bonus suspicion for being suspected by ArcticFox) All in all, I think it's essential to lynch either Dittert, yomi or HiroPro for today. Earlier I thought Dittert's town flip would be the ultimate bad situation, but actually even that would provide some information. I'll also look a bit at the connections between Dittert, yomi and HiroPro: - Dittert flips Mafia: makes yomi less suspicious, makes HiroPro more suspicious - Dittert flips town: makes yomi more suspicious, makes HiroPro less suspicious - yomi flips Mafia: makes Dittert less suspicious, makes HiroPro less suspicious - yomi flips town: makes Dittert more suspicious, makes HiroPro more suspicious - HiroPro flips Mafia: makes Dittert more suspicious, makes yomi less suspicious - HiroPro flips town: makes Dittert less suspicious, makes yomi more suspicious So, all of these players have a high chance of being Mafia, and lynching any of them would be at least somehow useful even in the case of a town flip. Since the vote is almost tied between me and Dittert at the moment, I'm definitely going to keep my vote on Dittert for the time being. In case he flips Mafia, I'm willing to vote for HiroPro instead of yomi next. In case he flips town, I think I'm going to vote for yomi again. I feel quite stupid for misunderstanding yomi's post so completely, but I'll try to be more observant, calm and logical in the future. If that moment of my stupidity leads to my lynch and thus an easy path to victory for Mafia, I'll be kicking myself in the head on the observer chat along with BroodKingEXE... | ||
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On December 01 2012 08:12 DoYouHas wrote: My point is that I think it is strange that you went from anti-trolling to trolling in the space of 16 minutes. I don't think that those couple responses were as meaningless as you would like me to believe. You have explained yourself clearly, I just don't believe you. Sigh, it feels like talking to a wall. I also trolled in the pre-game discussion, so it's not like I can't do it. I just didn't like how everyone was trolling in the beginning of the game and nothing useful was happening. But then I thought "what the heck" and went with it for a moment. After that I returned to seriousness and started reading filters. And what's your explanation for my "suspicious" switch of attitude in that space of 16 minutes? How is it scummy or "meaningful"? | ||
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On December 01 2012 09:27 marvellosity wrote: Xatalos, the post you're quoting is after a couple of flips, and is quite a long way in. You should know yourself they don't compare. Anyways, outside input welcomed. (code for: a bunch of people in this game need to do some shit) You clearly like your meta reads, but let me explain some of my thought processes. GoT was my first game and I rolled Mafia. I was pretty afraid of posting anything, so I had a tiny filter with nothing of worth in it. I had some luck, though, since town focused on lynching each other and I stayed off the radar until the very end. At LYLO one player took a look at my filter and saw how it screamed Mafia. It was too late though, and his case didn't gather enough support. Next game I rolled Vanilla Town. I decided not to repeat the mistakes of town in GoT (stupid policies, WIFOM, lack of focus), so I devoted my existence to finding Mafia and getting them lynched. I became hyper-aggressive, though, pointing fingers at anything remotely suspicious and tunneling a couple of players like crazy. That lead to my demise, since the players who believed I was town were wiped out and the remaining townies had been through hell by my accusations. Naturally they chose to believe KharadBanar, who was Mafia, but had been kind of in the background and never got to be suspected (or really suspected anyone himself). I was lynched and we lost. Then I rolled Mafia again and tried for a "background" approach, similar to KharadBanar. I made some carefully constructed cases and gave vague reads on players to appear contributive. I was happily unsuspected for most of the game and when things got a bit difficult in the end, I bussed my teammate (who was luckily defended by ShiaoPi) and finished the game with a lynch of ShiaoPi. At this point I observed Wheel of Fortune and witnessed pretty bad play by town. ObsQT figured out the Mafia team without that much effort, but town lacked any kind of focus, just lynching bad/controversial players and then sinking into depression. To be fair, all the veteran players were Mafia that game and they had the thread under control. One bright point of the game was actually Bluelightz's correct town reads - he had all the Mafia as null reads and almost all townies as town reads. Unfortunately, his views weren't valued that much. Next I rolled Mafia once again, but this time I had severe time constraints and couldn't be as active. I tried repeating my earlier victory, but I had to play extremely safe (because I couldn't be there to defend myself most of the time) and I was kind of a very passive background character. Even so, I wasn't actually in any danger until LYLO. By then town had managed to secure each other as town reads - and that left only us, the actual Mafia. It was over at that point. It might have been different had I played more actively, but in any case, this game showed how powerful town reads and Mafia hunting by elimination can be. It was almost like a (game-winning) reincarnation of Bluelightz's mentality in Wheel of Fortune. Then we arrive at this current game. My second town roll. I had some pretty conflicting feelings about how to play the game (and I still do). Mostly I was thinking about my second and third game. In my second game, I had been discredited and eventually lynched, even though all I did was hunt Mafia. In my third game, I was considered innocent until my victory, even though I just pulled strings in the background. I deduced that maybe some kind of a balanced approach would be for the best. Then I started thinking about the playstyle of Bluelightz (Mafia hunting by elimination). Unfortunately, it's not working all that well so far. The players in this game seem much harder to read than in Wheel of Fortune... I don't even have a single strong town read or strong Mafia read yet. Maybe it's all the trolling, maybe it's the lack of effort by too many players, but I can't think of a lynch that would have a high chance of hitting Mafia. Even players I have town reads on appear scummy in some posts, and the other way around. The best I can think of is a lynch on one of the players who have put in *some* apparent effort (not just trolling) but have done so in a careful and artificial way. What I mean is: it's possible for Mafia to troll, go on a rampage or make stupid accusations. BUT it's a risky metagame strategy depending completely on town to think like I'm thinking right now. It's much safer to just stay in the background and avoid unnecessary attention, much like I've done in my previous games as Mafia. Blazinghand has been throwing his vote around like it's a piece of trash, but I don't think it makes much sense from a Mafia perspective. It's something to gather negative attention and unnecessarily make himself a lynch candidate. What I'm most concerned about are these players: VisceraEyes, DoYouHas, Dandel Ion. They all have been pretty passive background characters who are not lurking/trolling/playing bad, but not really doing anything either. I think there's a high chance for 1-2 of them being Mafia. VisceraEyes has answered to my suspicion though: On December 01 2012 09:30 VisceraEyes wrote: Compared to the hyper pace at game start, the thread is certainly moving at a snails pace today. Since Xata's stance on me has gone from "nothing decisive" to decisive enough to vote, I suppose I should respond to the accusations. + Show Spoiler + On December 01 2012 03:51 Xatalos wrote: One player I find suspicious is VisceraEyes. He hasn't been merely trolling or lurking, but rather posting pseudo-productive posts that make him look somewhat active - without actually accomplishing anything. This playstyle in between useless and useful is the one I'm always suspicious of. This post does actually have a point about debears... But VisceraEyes doesn't pursue it anyhow, just points it out (like some other players did) and never speaks of it again. The rest is pretty much safe-to-say meaningless fluff. A quite unnecessary and forgettable post. Actually an "original" topic, but yet again safe to say and not really that productive. Feels like something Mafia might say to look like they're doing something, while actually not doing anything. I also dislike how none of his posts are connected... It's like he's posting the minimum required amount and avoiding commitment to anything. Overall, nothing decisive, but all of this leaves an uneasy feeling about VE for me. His major problem with my play is that he thinks that I'm being productive but not really? That's pretty meaningless coming from a guy who's only act is to vote for someone based on outdated (I ninja'd him, not really his fault) information and defending himself. Considering the fact that this is D1, and considering the amount of content that is (not) in the thread, I think I've done a fair amount of scumhunting. He cites my questioning Ace as "something Mafia might say to appear helpful without really accomplishing anything." Except, it's only that way because Ace hasn't responded to my inquiry, so that's really out of my control. Further, it discounts the (true) motivation of "Maybe he's just curious about a suspicious vote with no reasoning and wants clarification" Also, I'd like to hear what's "bandwagon-y" about my vote on debears. First of all, I'm like...the second vote on the guy? Third? I'd argue that marv's no-reason vote is more "bandwagon-y", but whatever. I define "bandwagon-y" in a different way I guess. Bandwagon-y wouldn't include reasoning. Bandwagon-y would be like "Welp, everyone else is voting this guy, guess I better hop on the bandwagon." You know....as the made-up word implies? But it wasn't. I gave reasoning for my vote. What I'm most suspicious of is the way you posted your vote for debears. I got the feeling you saw your chance to look good by making a "me too" case against debears as he was getting some heat by several players. Then you just kind of dropped that matter and commented casually on some events from the sidelines, but not pushing anything or getting to the spotlight in any form. It's like you were content with your vote gathering dust off the radar and proceeded to make some fluff posts without purpose. As if you didn't even care who got lynched... As long as nobody put pressure on you? DoYouHas's only contribution so far is his weird push to get me lynched based on a troll post and my initial lack of response to him for voting me without any (in my eyes) apparent reason. Then he just posts this: On December 01 2012 17:33 DoYouHas wrote: I'm curious BH, would you say that your confidence in DarthPunk being scum is telling as to Xatalos's alignment? Given Darth's early posts defending Xata I would find it hard to believe Xata is scum if Darth is. Do you agree? If Darth is scum, what would you say he has been trying to achieve in the thread before he started defending himself? Who else do you think is implicated by Darth's play up to this point? He just asks some questions from Blazinghand about DarthPunk and provides nothing new to the discussion. He seems quite content to stay off the radar and with minimal contributions as well. Dandel Ion hasn't put any real effort into his posts yet. He's just made some fluff one-liners and semi-useful "advice" like these: On November 30 2012 23:10 Dandel Ion wrote: I mean, I agree that Lazermonkey is being overeager with calling you out like that, but Xatalos already answered you. What information do you expect to gain by asking the same thing again? On December 01 2012 14:53 Dandel Ion wrote: It's a themed game. Please tell me you're not gonna start a setup speculation. Just quickly skimmed the thread, do ya still want me to explain how, when and how well I read guides, or did you realize that it was a silly question in the first place yet? Dandel Ion doesn't just seem to care about Mafia hunting, even though he has posted a decent amount and with semi-useful content as well. I'd need to see some real improvement in his posting to make my suspicions fade. Sharing some reads or anything beneficial to finding Mafia would be a good start. | ||
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On December 02 2012 01:25 ShiaoPi wrote: So who do you want to lynch Xata? Which of the three is scummiest to you? VisceraEyes at the moment. DoYouHas and Dandel Ion haven't made any actual effort to contribute, but they haven't done anything outright scummy either. I'm most suspicious of VE's opportunistic vote for debears and his lack of interest to do pretty much anything useful after that. On December 02 2012 01:26 marvellosity wrote: and yeah, Dandel has been pretty shocking. Seems like he signed up and now isn't bothering to play the game :/ Any other comments? I wrote that wall of text about my meta after all :/ On December 02 2012 02:19 Lazermonkey wrote: Bolded part is wut? You write this, yet this is the first post since I called you out and you left. You say your more intrested in BH now, what happend with Xata? You STILL have not given a satisfying reason to your strange behavior earlier but instead try to ignore it by saying that I haven't properly read some parts of your filter. Care to enlighten me? You then make a couple of posts saying that you are not really sure what to think of BH and then ends up voting him anyway? I am still interested in you. You are my second highest scum read at this point. And you did a very poor job of convincing me otherwise. I agree that ShiaoPi's flip-flopping and throwaway vote for BH don't look good for him. It could be just indecisive town who ran out of time, but why BH? ShiaoPi doesn't look like he even has an actual scum read on BH...? I don't think ShiaoPi is a good lynch for today but someone to watch carefully going forward. | ||
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On December 02 2012 03:36 DoYouHas wrote: Xata, I find your recent wall of text post quite interesting. Why are you still defending yourself? Marv hasn't looked like he was going to push you for a while now, leaving just me voting you. Almost the entire focus of the thread had moved away from you. Against what perceived threat are you defending? Why, when we are in the last 1/4 of the day, are you spreading your suspicion over 3 people instead of picking your pony and trying to get them lynched? You only state which of the 3 of us you find most suspicious when asked later. (Though, the choice probably wasn't that hard since your vote was already on VE.) You seem much more concerned with showing that you have a stance than actually pursuing someone's lynch. The rest of you - This is not the behavior of a townie. Arguing against a non-existent threat shows that Xata is still feeling pressure long after it has stopped. This is because Xata feels the need to go the extra mile to prove he isn't scum (a scummy trait). Spreading suspicion around without actually trying to bring anyone around to lynching his target is also scummy play. A vote for Xatalos is a vote for SCUM Isn't it a good thing to clear misconceptions anyhow? You're right that marvellosity didn't look like pursuing the metagame argument, but I can see no harm at all in clearing it up. Establishing one's innocence is an important goal for any townie after all. Time is running out, yeah, but it's not too late to consider the options yet. There are still 4 players who haven't voted at all and several votes are probably subject to change. If any of VE/DYH/Dandel can't be lynched tonight, at least it's a perfect opportunity to make some pressure. I'll change my target from VE if needed before the deadline. | ||
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On December 02 2012 03:28 Zealos wrote: I did give reasoning for debears. Ace I would call scum if he were a different player, but no one seems to be too keen to push him yet, so I'm willing to leave it for now. Plenty of time ≠ plenty of free time till lynch. I am pointing out marv plays differently. Perhaps scum, perhaps a blue trying to protect himself, may just be acting differently for no reason. I am saying what I am thinking and seeing in the thread. I have not outright called anyone scum yet, but I don't feel I have had enough time to read over to decide who deserves the lynch. I would say the earlier stuff with DI and debears was a little dodgy, but equally, it had too much read into it at the time. The current votes on Xata seem to be the best bet for the time being. This is for instance seems a little.. odd... The sorry in particular, along with the end of the post strike me as weird. "Hey, I think you might be mafia, really sorry about that. Also, for anyone reading this, I wouldn't listen to me, because I'm probably wrong, but at least I'm contributing right? Right?! I don't really like using meta as an argument, so I'm gonna ignore trying to tie it in to his past games as mafia and/or town, but from what I've read so far, this guy seems the best lynch candidate. ##Vote:Xatalos Wut? This post is extremely indecisive and THIS is a prime example of an unconvinced/unconvincing argument: "The current votes on Xata seem to be the best bet for the time being. This is for instance seems a little.. odd..." What kind of a reasoning is that? Can you get any more bandwagony? | ||
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On December 02 2012 05:14 marvellosity wrote: yeah i don't like any of it. I'm hesitant on Zealos because his play always comes across as super weakly to me. Although why he keeps referring to some game which was more than half my mafia career ago I have no idea. Xatalos has managed to post so much without saying almost anything which is irritating. What makes me hesitant is that I can understand his thought process on some things. I also am having an extremely hard time getting town reads this game, and the timing of your debears case did seem opportunistic at the time (not even saying that's what it was, but I had that gut reaction at the time reading the thread). Ace is a dick bugs is a dick Zentor is Zentor ShiaoPi is pointless All DYH has done is talk about Xatalos Dandel has sat on his arse doing nothing literally all day. I think... I want to lynch DarthPunk. I found his early defence of Xatalos quite bizarre and unnecessary. Not only this, it has been quite out of play with his subsequent play. DarthPunk tells us he was "feeling protective" of newbie Xatalos. But he treats Lazermonkey, someone with not many games and with similar standing in the game, as a piece of fucking shit on the bottom of his shoe. He also calls the whole thread useless and retards, which jarred at the point that a lot of us were genuinely trying to talk through Xatalos and other matters. It was just shitty ranting for the sake of shitty ranting. I'm also not picking up any of the towntells I normally get from DP. They might just be absent and he's town, but I don't think so. He's aggressive without being helpful and I think we should lynch him today. ##vote: DarthPunk I think there are many better lynch candidates out there than DarthPunk. He has been active and transparent with his opinions. Any of Zealos, ShiaoPi, VE, DYH, Dandel Ion would make for a better lynch. Why DarthPunk over all these other players? | ||
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On December 02 2012 05:25 marvellosity wrote: because I think DP has a higher chance of flipping scum than any of those players for reasons i just gave. I think you're putting too much weight into metagames. I'd say it's better to lynch someone who is acting scummy in the thread than someone who might be playing according to his scum meta (or not). You guessed my alignment correctly once when I was Mafia and you were observing based on meta, but meta shouldn't be the only or even primary tool of playing. | ||
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##Unvote ##Vote Zealos | ||
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On December 02 2012 05:33 Ace wrote: Xata, bugs switch your votes to marv. I think he's Scum. Why do you think marvellosity is Mafia? I don't agree with everything he's said but I don't see him being this active and influential in the discussion if he was Mafia. At least show some reasoning for that. | ||
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It's not. Have you even read my posts? I only mentioned his inactivity when I compared marvellosity and Zealos. But it wasn't the reason I voted for Zealos. I clearly said that his bandwagoning and non-existent contribution with his posts was the reason. On December 02 2012 06:37 marvellosity wrote: I am Detective now fuck off all of you. Well, that's a surprising move. Seems too risky for Mafia, considering the high chance of a counterclaim (forcing a 50% Mafia lynch rate and unavoidable death in 2 days' time). For now I'm quite comfortable with this not being a fake claim. This leaves Zealos and DarthPunk then. I don't like DarthPunk's absence, but Zealos is the one we should lynch. He was even online a short time ago (not sure if he's now) but he's only dug himself deeper recently and hasn't done ANYTHING truly townish so far. DarthPunk on the other hand has contributed his reads openly and participated in the Mafia hunt. Which of these should be the lynch? | ||
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On December 02 2012 05:14 marvellosity wrote: yeah i don't like any of it. I'm hesitant on Zealos because his play always comes across as super weakly to me. Although why he keeps referring to some game which was more than half my mafia career ago I have no idea. Xatalos has managed to post so much without saying almost anything which is irritating. What makes me hesitant is that I can understand his thought process on some things. I also am having an extremely hard time getting town reads this game, and the timing of your debears case did seem opportunistic at the time (not even saying that's what it was, but I had that gut reaction at the time reading the thread). Ace is a dick bugs is a dick Zentor is Zentor ShiaoPi is pointless All DYH has done is talk about Xatalos Dandel has sat on his arse doing nothing literally all day. I think... I want to lynch DarthPunk. I found his early defence of Xatalos quite bizarre and unnecessary. Not only this, it has been quite out of play with his subsequent play. DarthPunk tells us he was "feeling protective" of newbie Xatalos. But he treats Lazermonkey, someone with not many games and with similar standing in the game, as a piece of fucking shit on the bottom of his shoe. He also calls the whole thread useless and retards, which jarred at the point that a lot of us were genuinely trying to talk through Xatalos and other matters. It was just shitty ranting for the sake of shitty ranting. I'm also not picking up any of the towntells I normally get from DP. They might just be absent and he's town, but I don't think so. He's aggressive without being helpful and I think we should lynch him today. ##vote: DarthPunk Maybe I'm biased because DP indeed didn't jump on me. I wouldn't still call it a contradiction that he didn't jump on me but started pushing Lazermonkey. Aren't you allowed to decide your reads on a player-per-player basis? I see no sense in clumping all newer players together somehow. And calling the thread useless isn't a Mafia tell... If anything, it's a slight town tell. Mafia wouldn't want to gather negative attention for literally no gain at all. And the thread seriously WAS mostly useless until later on, although it was starting to get better before DP posted that. I think we're making a big mistake if we let Zealos off the hook and lynch DP while he's been AFK for quite some time. | ||
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On December 02 2012 07:27 wherebugsgo wrote: LOL what kind of shit cop claims day 1? Of all people marv would know that this is a terrible idea as town. So, guess what? HE'S NOT TOWN! To be fair, votes were piling up on him and this was perhaps the only way out of the predicament. If I were a Detective and in that situation, I'd do the same. | ||
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##Unvote ##Vote DoYouHas | ||
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On December 02 2012 07:55 DoYouHas wrote: You guys are really last minute vote switching on to me... ugh. You think I'm not scumhunting? I found scum, I pursued him, and I spent the rest of my time trying to persuade the rest of you. Good luck all, you are going to need it. You vets should know better. These last minute switches never hit scum. In fact.. what have you been doing for the last 50 minutes? It looks like you've been following the thread but did nothing after bandwagoning DP without reasoning. I'm starting to feel good about this lynch. | ||
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On December 02 2012 08:25 Blazinghand wrote: Well no here's the thing: I doubt he'd have claimed last minute if his claim was TRUE. Like, if DYH claimed 30 minutes before deadline or whenever votes piled up on him it'd make sense, but why claim when there's almost no time for town to consolidate onto any wagon but DPs? This is why DYH has earned very little cred in my book. He escaped the D1 lynch but I extend him no more courtesy than that. Hmmm. I guess you're right if we assume that he estimated he might still be saved with that claim. But it was technically after the deadline, although the votes after that were still counted somehow, so I'm not so sure about that. I got the gut feeling that he would have claimed at least a bit earlier if it was a fake claim - not very likely too late. Like, what's the point in fake claiming after the deadline has passed? Something tells me it could very well be frustrated townie. But we'll see about that before tomorrow in any case. | ||
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On December 02 2012 16:11 DoYouHas wrote: I expected to catch some flak for my voteswitch onto DP, something like that always does. My vote on Xata was doing nothing. There were 3 viable lynch candidates, none of which I had a strong opinion on (with the exception of Marv, I was looking to switch to him until the claim. It also didn't sit right with me that by voting Marv I would have been agreeing with Ace, who I am leaning scum on.) That meant for me to help avoid a marv lynch and also make my vote matter, I had to switch to either Zealos or DP. I picked the person who defended my top scum read and had some points against him instead of the fairly inactive person who happened to be backing up my scum read. Not the best reasons, but the honest ones. I cannot comprehend how there is so much doubt around my claim. You all must think I have balls of steel. My claim was in a farewell post, made ON the deadline. I didn't think it would save me. Nor can I think of a single example of scum claiming like that only to have themselves proven a liar 30 seconds later with the nightpost. I also didn't think claiming earlier would have saved me (which would have been like 10 minutes earlier, as that was when I sat back down to watch the nightpost). If there is something you should have learned about me from this game, or from looking at my previous games, is that I play slow, I try to write carefully, and I can be single-minded when I think I am right. None of these aspects fit with trying to spit out my few reads before I am mislynched and then a frustrated farewell (if I am scum). They do fit with a townie me, who is suddenly pressed for time to contribute what little I can before you kill me. You have all put me in a terrible position. Why? because all scum have to do is roleblock me tonight and you will all lynch me tomorrow and do their job for them. But whatever, there isn't anything I can do about that. I'll just try and catch scum in the time I have left, and hopefully that will convince you that I'm town. I can somewhat relate to your reasons for voting DP... Although they're still narrow-minded reasons, they're not necessarily scummy reasons. Combined with my intuition telling me your late roleclaim wasn't any elaborate Mafia tactic (which it could possibly be, but I have problems believing it - Occam's razor points to the simpler explanation), I'm starting to lean slightly town on you. In addition, such heavy tunneling isn't really townish, but it's not an effective Mafia playstyle either. Mafia would rather leave their options open, not limit them willingly. What's a good point is that Mafia might have a roleblocker. If they roleblock you, we're back to square one and have to decide the truth of your roleclaim with what you've said, not with your power usage. In any case, you should claim your shot RIGHT before the deadline. Let's consider the options for Mafia if they don't have time to change their roleblock action based on your target: 1) They can roleblock you, preventing you from becoming a confirmed Vanilla Townie (after your shot has been used). But if you just shoot me or some other townie (and you're not a very threatening presence to Mafia in any case), it might be beneficial for Mafia to let the shot go through. They'd get rid of one townie and just lose one mislynch candidate. 2) They can skip using a roleblock or roleblock marvellosity instead (in case he didn't fakeclaim). This would make you a confirmed Vanilla Townie but potentially prevent marvellosity's night action and most of all likely kill 2 townies in a single night. If you claim your shot early, Mafia will have an easy time deciding their best course of action. If you do it at the deadline, Mafia will have to take a risk and decide their possible roleblock usage without information about your target. Although I guess it has to be me after all this tunneling, which kind of makes me hope you're fakeclaiming, but you never know. Reading the exchange between WBG and BH, I'm starting to lean on WBG being town and BH being Mafia. WBG's reasoning is coherent and townish, but BH looks like he's just dodging issues and ignoring facts while doing what he decided beforehand (pushing the lynch to DP, next up DYH). What's even weirder is the contradiction between his earlier and later playstyle: at first he swinged his vote around for the smallest reasons, but then he wouldn't budge from getting DP lynched no matter what. Where did this confidence suddenly come from, considering his earlier wishy-washiness? And even with his arguments being repeatedly refuted? I'm just getting more and more suspicious of BH the more I think about it. | ||
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I'm not liking a BH lynch as much anymore. It's a good point that he had little reason to save the Vigi while putting himself to the spotlight by doing so. It would have been much easier to remain passive and let DYH die. Everything's possible, but Occam's razor points to BH = town being the more likely option based on this alone. Looking at VE's filter, it seems to give some town points to at least debears, BH and myself. I'm torn on Zealos, because VE did vote for him, but he didn't provide any reasoning, just kind of dropped the vote and then quickly switched to DP when the bandwagon started to form on him. And looking at the own actions of Zealos, I'm liking him best as the lynch for today. ##Vote Zealos I'm curious DYH, what's your read on me now? You pushed me for all of Day 1 but then (fortunately) didn't shoot me anyway. I'm also very interested to hear why you chose to shoot VE, and what do you think of all the interactions between me and VE? And who would be your top lynches right now? | ||
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On December 03 2012 01:47 ShiaoPi wrote: On my watchlist right now: -Marv depending on night actions -DYH see above These two are the obvious ones, then I still want to keep tabs on BH and Xata (whom I have kind of forgot earlier in d1) BH led a mislynch, while that happens to anyone of us, i still dislike the way je insisted on SP being scum, when he was willing to swap earlier tarfets, stubbornness in a read aint necessaeily scum, but still. In regards to xata there has been a lot about him alreasy by others I am not going to rehash that. But his last post was pure fluff so it kind of adds up. I'm puzzled by that last statement. First of all, my latest post before this post of yours was nothing like "pure fluff". It had my reasoning for why DYH felt townish, WBG felt townish and BH felt scummy to me at the time. Maybe my speculation about the night actions was a bit fluffy, but it was only a part of that post. How did the whole post become "pure fluff"?? In addition to this lackluster reasoning, there's nothing suggesting I'm scummy except what "others have said". This whole post seems almost too familiar to me. It's like I'm looking at VE's post where he jumped on the debears bandwagon by just adding something unconvincing of his own and repeating earlier statements. It feels like you just wanted to have me as a convenient lynch option without committing in any way. Granted, it's only a feeling, but I got the same initial feeling when VE made his move against debears. In fact, it's enough that I'd want to lynch you if it weren't for Zealos. His actions during Day 1 feel the scummiest of all. I'm not sure what to think of the BH vs Keirathi showdown. Something tells me it might even be a town vs town situation... Or then one is Mafia. It seems pretty unbelievable that such a long interaction would be fake, so it's almost impossible for both to be Mafia. I'm not willing to lynch either of them for today, though, since there's a decent chance both might be town. Lynching into Zealos/ShiaoPi, on the other hand, there's a decent chance they could even both be Mafia. Of my other original suspects VE was obviously Mafia and DYH is now confirmed town, and Dandel Ion was replaced by sandroba (who feels townish so far) so I'm not willing to lynch other players at this moment. | ||
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On December 03 2012 19:51 wherebugsgo wrote: The fact that BH thinks Keirathi is scum is an attest to him either being scum or stupid. Neither works out well. As I said earlier, I think we should consider ShiaoPi as a lynch candidate. I also thought that we should consider Dandel/sandro today but based on sandro's contributions so far I don't think that's a good idea. If sandro continues being useful I'm inclined to call him town; he's remarkably easy to catch as scum. I wouldn't mind killing BH but I have an inkling he's just being dumb. Clearly I should've erred on the side of "marvel is saying stupid stuff about DP" instead of "marvel is scum because of how he can't see DP is town." (and once again I should've trusted my earlier read) The tl;dr reason for why I think we should consider ShiaoPi is this: Also note I'm less willing to lynch BH and Zealos given how some events unfolded and this: Of note is that VE's only mentions of Dandel came in this post, which make it entirely plausible that VE was simply throwing forward Dandel's name to distance himself from a scumbuddy. His only mentions of Shiao also come in this post. In general scum ignore some of their team and thrust some others into the limelight. It serves to hedge both bets; one that they can potentially bus, and the other that they can preserve their team. Almost every scum does this, and I don't think VE is any exception to that. While he mentions Shiao and Dandel only in these posts, he mentions other players (such as Zealos, whom he actually voted for) in other posts and multiple times with at least cursory reasoning. In addition he pushed dabears fairly aggressively, as if he was looking for people to bandwagon with him on dabears. That makes me feel like it's unlikely dabears is scum (although I already had a town read on him anyway) and I think it strengthens the idea that VE interacted more with townies than with his fellow scum. Anyway, a lot of this is connection-based, but given that these players have been flying under the radar, there isn't much else to put on the table with respect to their play anyway. To rehash what I said earlier about Dandel/sandro; since sandro seems to be helpful, let's leave him alive. His presence has caused my read of him to improve, since Dandel literally didn't do anything at all. If sandro is indeed town he's our best player anyway. Of the remaining players I think LazerMonkey also deserves attention. Off the top of my head I can't think of any strong positions he's taken all game, and that's not something you generally note about townies. (curiously, VE never mentions LazerMonkey once, unless you count an indirect mention of an observation I made of Lazer) ##vote ShiaoPi I agree with pretty much everything in this post. You also raise good points about Lazermonkey and Zealos. Almost nothing comes to my mind when I think about Lazermonkey, and that's never a good sign. And about Zealos - I don't think it's that unusual to throw a vote at your scumbuddy like that. Even so, your point about the vague reference to ShiaoPi by VE, combined with VE choosing to vote for Zealos near the deadline despite many other options, leads me to believe that ShiaoPi might in fact be the better lynch for today. Still... I can't shake the doubt that VE was only distancing from Zealos by throwing that vote at him, then changing his vote soon after. That's why my vote stays on Zealos for the time being. | ||
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On December 03 2012 21:38 sandroba wrote: Hmm Bugs does have a point. Also if we assume BH is town ShiaoPi does fit the same theme as VE yesterday. A totally unimpactful player that just stood by the sidelines, because their team was never in danger. I'm willing to roll with that because I'm getting cold feet about BH flipping scum (VE mentioning he is okay with lynching him/zealos should at least make us consider looking in another direction) and Shiao isn't doing shit so it's less risk involved. ##Vote: ShiaoPi Hmm. Alright, I can agree with lynching ShiaoPi today. It also helps that I have a town read on both you and WBG. And ShiaoPi hasn't been lurking quite as heavily as Zealos, but he hasn't done anything either. ##Unvote ##Vote ShiaoPi Although I'm wondering where Zealos has disappeared. And Lazermonkey. What we need now is more posts by several players who haven't done anything for a while (or even all game). | ||
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On December 03 2012 23:18 wherebugsgo wrote: ye sandro has it correct. A scum who is not going to die or is not under in any pressure to bus is almost certainly not going to bus. Any of VE's pushes that "seemed" genuine were probably on townies. I guess that's a fair assumption, but not foolproof. For example, I bussed my scumbuddy hard in a previous game although I wasn't in any immediate danger - just to gain towncred and win the game with that. And VE didn't even BUS Zealos, he just throwed a vote at him and easily changed it away from him. I think that's very possibly just some distancing, not necessarily bussing or genuine lynch effort. Even so, I agree that VE's comment on ShiaoPi was much more suspicious than his vote for Zealos. VE seemed pretty reluctant to even talk about ShiaoPi, and he was especially uncomfortable with the thought of lynching ShiaoPi. The obvious explanation is that ShiaoPi is Mafia, although it's only a piece of circumstantial evidence. Still, combined with ShiaoPi's clear background role and lack of effort to achieve anything, he's definitely a good lynch candidate. | ||
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On December 04 2012 00:24 ShiaoPi wrote: hai bandwagon much? Anyway, let me first write up what I wanted to yesterday but could not get to before defending myself from bugs. Catching up to the thread I am gonna scratch pretty much all of what I had yesterday. I am going to comment on some of the remaining players now, with a reread of the thread: BH: Fuck what I said, I am leaning town on him now. Zealos: I would like to get rid of him as he is just a useless lurking piece of space at the moment. His saving grace is firstly that there are better lynches today and secondly (and more importantly) he got voted by VE. While VE is scum and therefore his votes are much more likely to end up on townies (see later in the day with DP and DYH) I don't feel like just taking his filter as 100%-foolproof evidence, heck he softdefended me and I am fucking town. Xatalos: This is more or less where it gets interesting. Before the reread I had a scumread on him, this is largely due to the fact that he has an incredibly annoying (to me) way to express his thoughts, convoluted to no end, e.g.: + Show Spoiler + On December 02 2012 22:46 Xatalos wrote: I can somewhat relate to your reasons for voting DP... Although they're still narrow-minded reasons, they're not necessarily scummy reasons. Combined with my intuition telling me your late roleclaim wasn't any elaborate Mafia tactic (which it could possibly be, but I have problems believing it - Occam's razor points to the simpler explanation), I'm starting to lean slightly town on you. In addition, such heavy tunneling isn't really townish, but it's not an effective Mafia playstyle either. Mafia would rather leave their options open, not limit them willingly. What's a good point is that Mafia might have a roleblocker. If they roleblock you, we're back to square one and have to decide the truth of your roleclaim with what you've said, not with your power usage. In any case, you should claim your shot RIGHT before the deadline. Let's consider the options for Mafia if they don't have time to change their roleblock action based on your target: 1) They can roleblock you, preventing you from becoming a confirmed Vanilla Townie (after your shot has been used). But if you just shoot me or some other townie (and you're not a very threatening presence to Mafia in any case), it might be beneficial for Mafia to let the shot go through. They'd get rid of one townie and just lose one mislynch candidate. 2) They can skip using a roleblock or roleblock marvellosity instead (in case he didn't fakeclaim). This would make you a confirmed Vanilla Townie but potentially prevent marvellosity's night action and most of all likely kill 2 townies in a single night. If you claim your shot early, Mafia will have an easy time deciding their best course of action. If you do it at the deadline, Mafia will have to take a risk and decide their possible roleblock usage without information about your target. Although I guess it has to be me after all this tunneling, which kind of makes me hope you're fakeclaiming, but you never know. Reading the exchange between WBG and BH, I'm starting to lean on WBG being town and BH being Mafia. WBG's reasoning is coherent and townish, but BH looks like he's just dodging issues and ignoring facts while doing what he decided beforehand (pushing the lynch to DP, next up DYH). What's even weirder is the contradiction between his earlier and later playstyle: at first he swinged his vote around for the smallest reasons, but then he wouldn't budge from getting DP lynched no matter what. Where did this confidence suddenly come from, considering his earlier wishy-washiness? And even with his arguments being repeatedly refuted? I'm just getting more and more suspicious of BH the more I think about it. this entire post can be summed up into this: -I think you are town DYH, because of the reasons for tunneling you just shared and the late claim -Please claim your shot just before deadline to avoid too much chance for mafia to interfere, oh and wifom -I am getting a townread on WBG and BH leans scum to me or his last post: + Show Spoiler + On December 03 2012 23:59 Xatalos wrote: I guess that's a fair assumption, but not foolproof. For example, I bussed my scumbuddy hard in a previous game although I wasn't in any immediate danger - just to gain towncred and win the game with that. And VE didn't even BUS Zealos, he just throwed a vote at him and easily changed it away from him. I think that's very possibly just some distancing, not necessarily bussing or genuine lynch effort. Even so, I agree that VE's comment on ShiaoPi was much more suspicious than his vote for Zealos. VE seemed pretty reluctant to even talk about ShiaoPi, and he was especially uncomfortable with the thought of lynching ShiaoPi. The obvious explanation is that ShiaoPi is Mafia, although it's only a piece of circumstantial evidence. Still, combined with ShiaoPi's clear background role and lack of effort to achieve anything, he's definitely a good lynch candidate. It just hurts to look at it imo, the information within the post is so little in relation to the lengt Look through Xata's filter, it's full of elaborate stuff without a real conclusion/course of action. This is a clear scumtell in my eyes, no need for that much fluff if you are contributing. There are also a lot of "cases" which he never followed up entirely in a committing way. The problem I have with a potential scum-Xata is that he is making sense. Also he did not jump on the marv bandwagon d1, something I think scum would have loved to do, having a real chance to get a really good player mislynched d1. Conclusion on Xata, null leaning slightly in the red. Just because I mentioned DYH in my post before, he is confirmed town to me, I don't buy shenanigans with scum shooting themselves and stuff. Now on to the good stuff: Keirathi Obviously my changed read on BH is important for a red kei. but let's start from looking at ace: -He has been dickish, trolly and unhelpful, not exactly a scumtell but it adds to the entire picture. -What makes me wonder is especially the parts in his filter with "shiao/debears/DYH"-interaction and "shiao/VE/DP"-interaction. I do not remember having thoroughly interacted much with DYH, there were some questions from debears which I answered, also I did not interact with VE/DP in a remarkable kind of way. So I have no clue where he got this from, conclusions he does not read the thread thoroughly and makes shit up as he goes to appear contributing. Moving on to Kei now, While I initially agreed with a lot of his points against BH, I was also in the game from the beginning. Now with a clear reread I do not read BH as scummy anymore, from someone who replaces in I would expect him to have a clear mindset as well and I believe Keirathi to be a good enough player to be able to come to the same conclusion as I did. The entire amount of tunneling onto BH as an "easy" target seems to me like an attempt to just derail the entire thread into bascially the same discussion we had at the end of d1. Also the complete disregard for anything else, why? Cuz scum! ##vote: Keirathi Before I forget it, honorable mention to Lazermonkey, get out of your lurkhole and do something, you are pretty much up next right after Kei! Hmmmm. I guess you're right about my tendency to say things in too many words, haha... This has always been the case, though, especially when I have time to think (close to a deadline I often write more concisely, for example). But I still don't understand why you called my posting "pure fluff" earlier when you could find plenty of good points (that even "make sense" to you) now... Where's the logic in that? On another topic, I like your analysis of Ace/Keirathi. I haven't quite had him as a scumread at any point, but not as a townread either. Ace's weird "X/Y/Z interaction" posts and Keirathi's pure focus on BH aren't looking good. It's hard to judge a replacement player, but nothing in either of their filters screams "town!", and that's suspicious in itself. In light of your latest post, I'm not so sure about you being the right lynch anymore. Luckily we have still like 30 hours before the deadline, so we should be able to get a lot more info to decide the correct lynch before the deadline hits - at least if people would start being more active, that is...... | ||
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On December 04 2012 02:52 Keirathi wrote: But I don't think he was TRYING to get Zealos lynched. I mean, he made the one case, left his vote for an hour and a half without mentioning him again, then hopped off onto the DP wagon. If he had put more effort into it, maybe I could buy that argument. I have to say I agree with this point. I mentioned it earlier: I just can't see where VE was "bussing" Zealos. There's a big difference between bussing and distancing. When you bus, you actually try to get your scumbuddy lynched. When you distance, you just throw a vote at him and maybe provide some reason for that. What VE did fits with the latter, not the former. | ||
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On December 03 2012 20:03 wherebugsgo wrote: forgot to mention: to lend credence to my idea that VE was more willing to interact with townies than scum, note these cursory/sort of nebulous things: If you ctrl-f "marv" in VE's filter, you get the most hits out of anyone else in the game: 23. Ace: 21 (24 minus 3 occurrences of "ace" in a larger word) bugs: 15 blazing/bh/blz: 22 Xata: 14 DYH/doyou: 11 Zealos: 7 shiao/shaio: 5 austin: 5 LazerMonkey/Lazer: 2 Dandel: 2 MrZentor/Zentor/Mr: 0. I find it funny that this is almost directly correlated with the read I had on each player. By the way, this list is a piece of circumstantial evidence (at best...) but a pretty interesting list anyway. Considering that I have the "top 6" of this list as town reads (including marv, myself and DYH of course) - except Ace/Keirathi, whom I'm undecided about yet - I don't think I'm willing to lynch Keirathi today. This might seem like a stupid reason, but I agree with WBG that Mafia wouldn't unnecessarily interact with each other in the thread - this idea is given further credibility by he fact that VE mostly interacted with proven and probable townies (marv, WBG, DYH, BH, myself). I had austinmcc as a strong townread earlier, but maybe I'll have to take a closer look at him. I'm willing to give Dandel/Sandroba a pass though, since Dandel didn't interact with pretty much anyone and Sandroba has been very helpful with his posts. MrZentor and Lazermonkey are big mysteries to me... They need to post more content ASAP to make our lives easier. Zealos and ShiaoPi are also at the bottom, and I'm leaning heavily on lynching one of them at the moment. Any input on this? | ||
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I don't really like the way how WBG dodges questions and creates spam, making the thread less constructive. Still, I just can't see him as Mafia. He's been one of the most active players - and no, I don't mean just post count, I mean he's actively engaging with everything that's happening in the thread. Many of his posts are of no content, but mostly he has insight into whatever he says, and he comments on a lot of things - compare that to Keirathi for example, who doesn't apparently want to share his insight on almost anything. Or even more so to the players who have been trying to hide from attention all game. DYH also had some good points about WBG. And last but not the least, I just don't personally see WBG being Mafia. He appears much more genuinely frustrated and careless than pressured or scared whenever he rants. This all leads me to believe it would be idiotic to lynch WBG. I'm amazed how so many people actually want to lynch him at the moment. Keirathi, I'm still on the fence about you. Please share your top lynch candidates and your reasons for those. And share your insight into more topics as well. A part of my read on ShiaoPi also depends on you, since I doubt he would have went after his teammate when he was pressured to make a case. | ||
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##Unvote ##Vote ShiaoPi On December 04 2012 12:32 Keirathi wrote: Was 3 people with reasoning not enough? :o Hmm... I think I'm giving you pass for now. Your recent activity has been good and I think I underestimated your earlier transparency. That leaves Zealos, ShiaoPi and Lazermonkey for today. At least as far as I can agree with. None of them have done much lately, so it's hard to judge the right choice, and Zealos doesn't seem like a realistic option (for stupid reasons like "VE voted for him at some point" - so??). Luckily the deadline isn't close yet. | ||
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On December 04 2012 13:51 Keirathi wrote: I've said multiple times why I think BH is scummy. Even ignoring the roleblock thing, look at my meta case on him. BH hasn't been interacting with people, trying to get them to talk about his scum reads. He just throws a name and case out there, argues with that person, then moves on when its pertinent, and I don't think switching votes from one townie to the other at the last second, when BH's scum meta is to be trolly and 'suboptimal', makes up for that. But other people aren't buying it, so I've stopped trying to push him for now. As for Lazer: Particularly that post gave me a townie feel. This was after his big fight with DP, and calling Zealos out. Why would scum LM then, seeing austin doing something that could be considered "scummy", engage him by trying to get him to give reads and start discussion? It would make much more sense for scum LM to just call out austin and leave it at that. Ugh, this game is making my head hurt. There are both towny and scummy traits in almost every filter. What worries me most about Lazermonkey is his lack of presence in the thread (I can't even remember his stance on ANYTHING from the top of my head). But looking at his filter again, I agree with many things he says and I don't get the feeling he's playing scummy WHEN he's playing. Then I looked at DYH's reasoning for voting Lazermonkey and I agree that Lazermonkey is the best Mafia candidate of those who voted DP to be lynched (especially since Lazermonkey's vote was such a weird OMGUS vote out of thin air). I'd really like other people's opinions on Lazermonkey right now. | ||
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##Unvote Zealos ##Vote ShiaoPi On December 04 2012 14:32 Keirathi wrote: If his lack of presence is the most worrying thing, why Lazer over Zealos, who hasn't done a goddamn thing? Lazer might have OMGUS voted DP, but that's at least SOMETHING. Zealos was a non-factor day 1 and day 2. I'm not really sure what you're saying. I never said that I'd find Lazermonkey more suspicious than Zealos. It's just the fact that Zealos doesn't seem like a realistic option at this point - I could try to get him lynched still, but I doubt it's happening for today. I'm somewhat equally willing to lynch ShiaoPi, though, so that's fine with me. I'm also starting to consider Lazermonkey as a townread. His recent posts give me a townish feel and DYH's argument about there having to be a Mafia on the DP bandwagon isn't foolproof by any means. In addition, a ShiaoPi/Lazermonkey scumteam is looking pretty unlikely at this point, but I'm seeing ShiaoPi as Mafia, which means Lazermonkey would be town. I still can't understand the bandwagon on WBG. His attitude might need improvement, yeah, but... He's looking more and more like a genuinely frustrated townie as the game goes on. Call it intuition, but I can't see a world where Mafia would be so eager to jump into arguments and share their opinion on everything without any apparent fear for their own safety. It just doesn't make any sense for Mafia WBG to be playing like this. On December 04 2012 21:56 Keirathi wrote: Point 1: Fine. Point 2: Huh? Point 3: And here's the kind of thing about you that I have a problem again. This is a bullshit line that doesn't MEAN anything. What about him has been helpful? What about me has been unhelpful? Fucking use some posts to back yourself up. Yet more pointless bullshit with nothing to back it up. My unwillingness to do anything but tunnel BH? I've literally commented on more people/things since I joined the game than you have since the start of day 1. Rofl at the bolded party. That post came 10 hours after you already said you thought he was town. But good lord, could you possibly sheep BH any harder? Of course not, because you're scum who just keeps jumping on the popular bandwagon whenever you possibly can. ##Unvote: BlazingHand ##Vote: ShiaoPi I agree with pretty much everything in this post and I'm starting to feel good about Keirathi being town as well. What's good about a ShiaoPi lynch is that (given a red flip) it would make both Lazermonkey and Keirathi pretty likely townies. That would severely limit the possibilities of remaining Mafia players. DYH, I think you should heavily reconsider Lazermonkey and vote for ShiaoPi instead. Your vote on Lazermonkey isn't doing anything now and it didn't look you wanted to lynch WBG either. | ||
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On December 04 2012 22:38 Keirathi wrote: Don't worry, he's not going to flip town. I've played with town ShiaoPi and scum ShiaoPi. This ShiaoPi is the latter. Heh. Well, I really hope so. I've also played with ShiaoPi before and I must say he was a lot more active and decisive back then. He even defended a (Mafia) player to the very end against every other player and was pretty clear on his reads. Now it feels like he's just giving vague reads and jumping on any realistic bandwagon. | ||
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On September 09 2012 16:33 ShiaoPi wrote: Well I got some internet for a while now (yes, internet issues are still in play, recently moved to the dorms of my university, so I am not guaranteed network access at the moment). Also reading through the thread, looks like I am now on Hapa's hitlist, joy! 1) I know that my play is off from my town games take it or leave it right now when I am saying that I am town (yet again). 2)I still have internet issues, see above also I am in a stupid timezone (HKT) compared to you. I either have to stay up late or wake up early in order to catch the last of the US-timezones discussing, mostly I don't make it, did stay up once and felt trashed afterwards, so no not willing to repeat that. If that is not enough for you to explain my "meta"-switch, can't do more. Onto something else though... I said I'll take another look at maverick and what strikes me as odd is the focus he has on lurkers, while I can agree that this game has a shitton of lurkers (counting myself as well) it is pretty "normal" for a large game to have them around. One should take a look at the (even if few) posts the lurkers have in order to search for scum motivation/anti-town behaviour. Mav does not do it though, for him he has the simple equation of lurker=scum. There is quite the disconnect between this argument and his own behaviour as I would count him into the lurkers as well, so shouldn't he step up his game to fulfill his perception of good town play? Also looking back into d1 there is quite some amount of soft-defending towards Mattchew within his filter, e.g.: + Show Spoiler + On September 04 2012 13:17 Maverick32x wrote: Hey guys- got a chance to catch up and I have a couple thoughts. First- Not totally comfortable voting Mattchew at this point.. I understand the potential for lying about the role claim.. and I'm not a big fan of role claiming in general... HOWEVER- I'd like to reiterate BlackMamba's post that said something to the tune of "ITT- Townies arguing with Townies" because I find that people are so quick to blame each other for stupid stuff that we end up wasting the first couple days with literally zero reason for voting someone besides "They drew a picture".... That being said- I'd like to draw a little bit of attention to the first voter for whom I feel like I can make an actual observation on- Toadesstern. The reason I want to focus on that is just because of the speed at which he strikes out just makes me wonder why that's beneficial from a town perspective? And I'm just wondering if he just wanted to try to promote chaos right away?? Also- consistently attacking other posters seems to be a trend.... On September 05 2012 00:41 Maverick32x wrote: Well, I must of skimmed past the FoS on me from Bill Murray, so I'll weigh in a bit. The reason I was hesitant to jump on Matt was because 'bad play' doesn't equal Scum play. And our goal is to hunt Scum, not hunt bad players. That being said, lying goes a bit beyond 'bad' and starts to seem more scummy. @Broodking- I re-read your post like 10 times and I have no idea what point you're trying to make... He also claims to be really focused on scumhunting instead of "looking good" + Show Spoiler + On September 07 2012 10:14 Maverick32x wrote: I don't even know what Dwarf Fortress Mafia is?? How is that relevant? And yes- I acknowledge I defended Matt because I had no reason NOT to. He had just made a post and a couple people started to jump on him about it. I honestly would not of voted him if Palmer didn't say that NN were not self-aware. I'm not too concerned with 'looking better' but rather trying to scum hunt and win. but his "cases" until now has been this single post: + Show Spoiler + On September 07 2012 10:11 Maverick32x wrote: Okay, got through everyone's filters, so lets label some of the lurkers just to make sure we're aware: Hopeless1der, Shady Sands, ShiaoPi, and honestly I'd like to put Austinmcc in there too just cause his posts are useless.. but meh Okay, Obviously my read above on Forumite still stands- but I'm going to focus on DoYouHas for this next post. He randomly decides that Bill Murray must die right away. No idea why this was important for him to post- and to be honest Bill Murray is suspicious in his own ways (not to de-rail, but a lot of one sentence responses, fluctuating 'lists' of scum etc) So my sense is that this is a way to just accuse a peer early on, knowing that it won't stick. And of course it doesn't, because he quickly /unvotes that so quickly that it doesn't even make sense why he would do it in the first place. The majority of DoYouHas's posts involve meta game. Starting right at the start its his 'friend' who wanted him to vote, and people are playing as their 'meta' which he frequently refers to. We're looking at a definite Matt lynch, and he knows it, and even states it... why wouldn't he get behind that vote? He then jumps to Hopeless1der as his next target. He just appears far too sure of himself that Hopeless is voting scum for a townie- considering his entire case is built around it. His defense involves his own meta!! This leads me to believe that he is very aware of the 'meta' in the game, and is actively trying to fit whatever he views as 'usual' for him when he is town. So there you have it!! My top 2 reads currently. I am not impressed at all. Furthermore adding up to his shady behaviour, we have this little exchange between him and me: As soon as I am asking him some questions he feels uncomfortable with, he says this: Ignoring my questions (still is btw) alltogether. After we mislynch BKE, it's straight up, back to the lurkers, no mention of DYH or Forumite which were suspicions of him before. I don't know if you can see town motivation behind his play, I certainly don't, mav is scum, so shoot him tonight or lynch him tomorrow. Probably won't have internet again before the deadline passes so yeah, that's it from me. ShiaoPi is decisive and open about his reads in LVII. He has good arguments and he seems convinced about his cases. Compare that to this game: On December 04 2012 00:24 ShiaoPi wrote: hai bandwagon much? Anyway, let me first write up what I wanted to yesterday but could not get to before defending myself from bugs. Catching up to the thread I am gonna scratch pretty much all of what I had yesterday. I am going to comment on some of the remaining players now, with a reread of the thread: BH: Fuck what I said, I am leaning town on him now. Zealos: I would like to get rid of him as he is just a useless lurking piece of space at the moment. His saving grace is firstly that there are better lynches today and secondly (and more importantly) he got voted by VE. While VE is scum and therefore his votes are much more likely to end up on townies (see later in the day with DP and DYH) I don't feel like just taking his filter as 100%-foolproof evidence, heck he softdefended me and I am fucking town. Xatalos: This is more or less where it gets interesting. Before the reread I had a scumread on him, this is largely due to the fact that he has an incredibly annoying (to me) way to express his thoughts, convoluted to no end, e.g.: + Show Spoiler + On December 02 2012 22:46 Xatalos wrote: I can somewhat relate to your reasons for voting DP... Although they're still narrow-minded reasons, they're not necessarily scummy reasons. Combined with my intuition telling me your late roleclaim wasn't any elaborate Mafia tactic (which it could possibly be, but I have problems believing it - Occam's razor points to the simpler explanation), I'm starting to lean slightly town on you. In addition, such heavy tunneling isn't really townish, but it's not an effective Mafia playstyle either. Mafia would rather leave their options open, not limit them willingly. What's a good point is that Mafia might have a roleblocker. If they roleblock you, we're back to square one and have to decide the truth of your roleclaim with what you've said, not with your power usage. In any case, you should claim your shot RIGHT before the deadline. Let's consider the options for Mafia if they don't have time to change their roleblock action based on your target: 1) They can roleblock you, preventing you from becoming a confirmed Vanilla Townie (after your shot has been used). But if you just shoot me or some other townie (and you're not a very threatening presence to Mafia in any case), it might be beneficial for Mafia to let the shot go through. They'd get rid of one townie and just lose one mislynch candidate. 2) They can skip using a roleblock or roleblock marvellosity instead (in case he didn't fakeclaim). This would make you a confirmed Vanilla Townie but potentially prevent marvellosity's night action and most of all likely kill 2 townies in a single night. If you claim your shot early, Mafia will have an easy time deciding their best course of action. If you do it at the deadline, Mafia will have to take a risk and decide their possible roleblock usage without information about your target. Although I guess it has to be me after all this tunneling, which kind of makes me hope you're fakeclaiming, but you never know. Reading the exchange between WBG and BH, I'm starting to lean on WBG being town and BH being Mafia. WBG's reasoning is coherent and townish, but BH looks like he's just dodging issues and ignoring facts while doing what he decided beforehand (pushing the lynch to DP, next up DYH). What's even weirder is the contradiction between his earlier and later playstyle: at first he swinged his vote around for the smallest reasons, but then he wouldn't budge from getting DP lynched no matter what. Where did this confidence suddenly come from, considering his earlier wishy-washiness? And even with his arguments being repeatedly refuted? I'm just getting more and more suspicious of BH the more I think about it. this entire post can be summed up into this: -I think you are town DYH, because of the reasons for tunneling you just shared and the late claim -Please claim your shot just before deadline to avoid too much chance for mafia to interfere, oh and wifom -I am getting a townread on WBG and BH leans scum to me or his last post: + Show Spoiler + On December 03 2012 23:59 Xatalos wrote: I guess that's a fair assumption, but not foolproof. For example, I bussed my scumbuddy hard in a previous game although I wasn't in any immediate danger - just to gain towncred and win the game with that. And VE didn't even BUS Zealos, he just throwed a vote at him and easily changed it away from him. I think that's very possibly just some distancing, not necessarily bussing or genuine lynch effort. Even so, I agree that VE's comment on ShiaoPi was much more suspicious than his vote for Zealos. VE seemed pretty reluctant to even talk about ShiaoPi, and he was especially uncomfortable with the thought of lynching ShiaoPi. The obvious explanation is that ShiaoPi is Mafia, although it's only a piece of circumstantial evidence. Still, combined with ShiaoPi's clear background role and lack of effort to achieve anything, he's definitely a good lynch candidate. It just hurts to look at it imo, the information within the post is so little in relation to the lengt Look through Xata's filter, it's full of elaborate stuff without a real conclusion/course of action. This is a clear scumtell in my eyes, no need for that much fluff if you are contributing. There are also a lot of "cases" which he never followed up entirely in a committing way. The problem I have with a potential scum-Xata is that he is making sense. Also he did not jump on the marv bandwagon d1, something I think scum would have loved to do, having a real chance to get a really good player mislynched d1. Conclusion on Xata, null leaning slightly in the red. Just because I mentioned DYH in my post before, he is confirmed town to me, I don't buy shenanigans with scum shooting themselves and stuff. Now on to the good stuff: Keirathi Obviously my changed read on BH is important for a red kei. but let's start from looking at ace: -He has been dickish, trolly and unhelpful, not exactly a scumtell but it adds to the entire picture. -What makes me wonder is especially the parts in his filter with "shiao/debears/DYH"-interaction and "shiao/VE/DP"-interaction. I do not remember having thoroughly interacted much with DYH, there were some questions from debears which I answered, also I did not interact with VE/DP in a remarkable kind of way. So I have no clue where he got this from, conclusions he does not read the thread thoroughly and makes shit up as he goes to appear contributing. Moving on to Kei now, While I initially agreed with a lot of his points against BH, I was also in the game from the beginning. Now with a clear reread I do not read BH as scummy anymore, from someone who replaces in I would expect him to have a clear mindset as well and I believe Keirathi to be a good enough player to be able to come to the same conclusion as I did. The entire amount of tunneling onto BH as an "easy" target seems to me like an attempt to just derail the entire thread into bascially the same discussion we had at the end of d1. Also the complete disregard for anything else, why? Cuz scum! ##vote: Keirathi Before I forget it, honorable mention to Lazermonkey, get out of your lurkhole and do something, you are pretty much up next right after Kei! Really... "He's tunneling BH. Why? Cuz scum." That's basically what his case is there. He doesn't even sound convinced himself! I get the feeling he's just throwing his vote at someone to appear to be scumhunting. Then there's this post: On December 04 2012 23:37 ShiaoPi wrote: So you seriously want to lynch me off a single mention by VE sandroba? What the fuck is wrong with all of you? I can't help but feel that this is a post by a cornered and panicking Mafia. Granted, it's only a feeling, but the tone of it is so aggressive that it would fit a Mafia being cornered and starting to crack under the pressure. It's nothing decisive, of course, but I tend to give some weight to how I feel about tone differences in posts. | ||
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On December 05 2012 01:06 ShiaoPi wrote: Hey Xata, What made that 180°-turn from this: to I can't even comprehend this at all. also your last thing about emotions and stuff is utter trash, I am reacting the way I am since you guys are fucking retarded to lynch me over bugs..... Earlier I was glad that you were producing content with that post, and I was also glad that you brought Ace/Keirathi into my (and others') attention. But after looking at your posts/cases in the earlier game (when you were town) and rereading your reasons for voting Keirathi, it just falls short. Basically the only reason is Keirathi's tunneling (which he didn't continue for all that long after all) and Ace's weird posts during Day 1. It's really not enough to convince me you honestly thought he was Mafia at that moment. We'll see the truth of that with your flip though. I don't think there's another choice for today but you, especially with WBG being the runner-up in votes now. | ||
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On March 22 2012 05:32 MrZentor wrote: Hello people of Mafia! It is I, MrZentor! Anyways, I thought this started a day after it did, so I am a little late to the party. Let me tell everybody my opinion, so you can get a good read on me! First we have Acrofales overreacting to a vote that didn't have a basis. He then votes for Mattchew. Lyter defends Acrofales. Then Mattchew, bad spelling in hand, attacks Lyter for defending Acrofales I really don't like that Mattchew attacks Lyter for defending Acrofales, who I think at this point is innocent. It also seems silly that Mattchew is 100% positive that Acrofales is innocent over one nooby overreaction. If you look at Mattchew's filter, you will see he only said something slightly helpful when he was asked to; everything else is just him attacking other people without any real reason. For now, I think he is most likely to be scum. But now, he's just posting one-liners and not really doing much of anything. What's up with him, seriously? Could someone tell me where they're getting this strong town read from? | ||
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On December 04 2012 09:07 MrZentor wrote: I have narrowed the mafia down to five people. I can't decide which of those I want to kill. But ShiaoPi is on the list and WBG wants to kills him, so why not? Here it looks like MrZentor has a town read on WBG - he's even willing to follow WBG's lead to lynch ShiaoPi. On December 04 2012 11:39 MrZentor wrote: WBG is a vet; he knows what kind of posting is beneficial for town and what is detrimental. Making these terrible posts is a conscious decision. There is no reason for him, a vet, to post like that as town. So, for actively hurting the town environment while fully aware of his actions, I will ##Vote: WBG. Also, WBG, I challenge you. I challenge you to either refute each of BH's points in his case or to admit to purposefully being detrimental to town. I challenge you to not say something useless like Two hours later, he's suddenly Mafia??? What the heck??? MrZentor seems to also have a very strong townread on BH. I pretty much agree with his arguments, although I wouldn't give them such heavy weight as MrZentor does (especially the weird case against MrZentor isn't that big of a towntell IMO). I'm puzzled more than anything by MrZentor, but I want to hear an explanation for that voteswitch from ShiaoPi to WBG right now. I also want to hear some more reasoning for his actions so far in the game and what this mysterious "list of five suspects" is. | ||
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On December 05 2012 04:45 debears wrote: Xatalos what do you have to say about the stuff posted by me, BH, and austin on WBG? All I've seen you mention is ShiaoPi and WBG's "how many times VE mentioned ppl" post. You have failed to address any of the main content addressed at WBG, yet you are more than happy to jump on ShiaoPi and Zentor I suppose MrZentor can wait, since it's close to deadline and he isn't even really related to the lynch at hand. By the way, I just had a strange thought. What if the remaining scum were ShiaoPi and austinmcc? I've had austinmcc as a townread for so long, but he's been pretty unimpactful during Day 2 - and recently he's been soft defending ShiaoPi, and simultaneously boarding the opposing bandwagon (WBG). Them being a team would make lots of sense (at least if it wasn't for my original townread on austinmcc). Now, back to WBG. I sometimes start doubting him when reading your (debears etc.) arguments against him, but I have the terrible feeling that I would regret heavily voting for him instead of ShiaoPi. Yeah, he hasn't been as helpful as he could/should have, but the same applies to marvellosity - and he was town of course. The points against WBG aren't really scumtells - they're nulltells that could mean either town or Mafia. They would also mostly apply to marvellosity. There are always two people in a flamefest, and they were both equally guilty for it IMO. Both were caught up in a senseless waste of time, resorting to petty insults and otherwise ignorant posts. I don't think this is condemning for either of them though. In fact, looking at where it has gotten WBG (half the players wanting to lynch him) I doubt he would have entered such a useless interaction with marvellosity in the first place as Mafia. It just makes no sense. Okay, there's the theory that scum WBG wanted to "neutralize" marvellosity's contributions before he could be shot. Is something bizarre like that really worth reducing your own credibility and raising yourself to the spotlight (and to the lynch candidates)? It's far too risky for far too little gain. Occam's razor again points to the simplest explanation: it was just two townies having a stupid argument where neither of them was going to benefit from it in any concrete way. There's always the chance that I'm wrong, but I'm pretty confident that I'm making the right choice right now. | ||
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On December 05 2012 06:04 debears wrote: But what about his flaming of the town despite him not even being at lynch because he was playing dota? What kind of town motivations are there for that? Actually, I think that's a null tell at worst. What reason would there be for Mafia to bash the town and gather negative attention for literally zero gain? There's no Mafia motivation for that. Not really a town motivation either, but it fits better with a frustrated townie than a scheming ("hey I'm gonna demolarize town by insulting them, how clever") Mafia. For example, this is from one of my newbie games. A frustrated townie is... bashing the town, because he is frustrated. There's a decent chance the exact same thing happened here as well. On April 14 2012 13:23 Dittert wrote: Okay, so I leave this morning feeling pretty good about our chance to lynch a mafia member, and I come back to this. Oh, btw, while I was gone I went to work where I got jerked around by several clients, had a meeting with an accountant who gave me terrible news, had a spat with my fiance, and found out I have to move out of my current house much sooner than I anticipated. So it's been a banner day... Now I log on from my fiance's shitty netbook that I can barely type on and I find this garbage? Here's my read: you're all a bunch of idiots. Seriously. All I hear about is how "such and such FEELS scummy/townie to me." After 3 or less games of mafia, what makes you think your intuition is worth anything? I'll bet you FEEL like you're constantly producing SCV's too, and I bet you're in the bronze league. For everyone who saw Brood's play as "so obviously mafia/scumslip," what do you think of your judgement now? As I mentioned before, I thought Brood was just kind of bad town (or as I said, "says some really stupid shit"). What irks me is that before I left, we had a pretty good case going against willz and a general ##FoS pointed at yomi. Once willz started posting more, everyone seemed to think that he must be town (why does posting more mean you're town, especially when posts with any kind of substance whatsoever came after Acro and myself built a strong case against him). Okay, so if you're convinced willz is town, why not vote for yomi? Yomi didn't even really have a defense, and I don't understand why everyone switched off of him. From now on, I would appreciate it if everyone read every post and ignored all of their feelings. Feelings are for little girls. Use your brain. Does post X make sense if so and so is town? What about if they're mafia? Do I see a pattern of posting between people? Remember that the mafia are coordinating with each other. Can you pick out anything that looks like coordination between 3 people? If you think so and so is mafia, with whom are they working? Can you construct a consistent and compelling story about what might be happening in the thread? Are you willing to assume that most people are just chattering townies (which is statistically true)? And for everyone who consistently says that my logic is dumb, my posts are bad, and my reads are wrong, my only read on brood was that he was a townie doing dumb stuff. Looks like I'm 1 for 1, or 2 for 2 if you count the townie part and the dumb stuff (like making a "scumslip" at the last minute) as 2 separate things. For the love of god, will the vig please shoot yomi or willz tonight so we can get some real info? Thanks. Mods, if the tone of this post is too harsh, let me know and I will tone it down in the future. | ||
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##Unvote ShiaoPi ##Vote Wherebugsgo | ||
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What now? Could DYH be SK? Is ShiaoPi Mafia after all? I have to go to sleep now in any case. Maybe this will all make sense tomorrow. | ||
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1) If DYH was SK, it would be an almost impossible stroke of luck that he claimed Vigi at such a time when it couldn't have realistically saved him anymore - although it managed to somehow save him anyway. And even if he still somehow was SK, it's a fact that there are still Mafia alive, so it's beyond stupid IMO to lynch a nearly confirmed Vigi while letting Mafia freely continue killing. 2) Keirathi was WBG's Mason partner, and unless this is some really cruel joke of a setup by the host, Keirathi must be town. Granted, it's "paranoia" Mafia, but lynching a confirmed Mason would be too stupid (realistically just doing Mafia's work for them). 3) BH/MrZentor would have been extremely stupid to fakeclaim just to ensure one mislynch at the cost of certainly losing the game eventually. Think about it: we now know that they are both town or both Mafia. If one of them would flip Mafia (lynch/SK kill/whatever), it would be GG right there and then. It's an extremely disadvantegeous position to put yourself into without any real gain. It's also most likely that one of them will be nightkilled before LYLO, which would confirm the other. It would make absolutely zero sense to lynch either of them. That means we have pretty much half the players as confirmed town, which is a great spot. I'm worried about what roles Mafia might have, though (or if they might have 4 players) considering the strong roles town has. But now it's basically just a process of elimination to figure out the remaining Mafia. Realistically DYH, Keirathi, BH and MrZentor are out of the picture. I'm also leaning town on debears, sandroba, austinmcc and Lazermonkey. That just leaves... ShiaoPi. What?? There's just no way there would be only 2 Mafia in a setup this stacked with blue roles. I feel like our only sensible option is to lynch ShiaoPi tomorrow, and in hindsight I feel it might have been better to lynch him today instead of WBG. Although WBG's flip at least (practically) confirmed Keirathi and the reality of this setup having tons of blues, so it's not too bad. I started suspecting this earlier and it's still on the back of my mind, although it ONLY makes sense if ShiaoPi is indeed Mafia. I mean austinmcc's weird behavior towards ShiaoPi. Let me show you some posts of his: On December 04 2012 23:50 austinmcc wrote: Xatalos, I would suggest looking at... LVII at least. I remember having the same feeling about ShiaoPi there that I did D1 here. He turned out to be town. It doesn't make him town here, but ... I've seen town ShiaoPi be relatively uninvested early compared to his play in that newbie game. It somehow looks like austinmcc is reluctant to talk about ShiaoPi. He rarely even mentions ShiaoPi, let alone asks him anything or interacts with him. When he does mention ShiaoPi, it's like this post (soft defending him without really committing to anything). In my mind it's way more scummy to make vague defenses for Mafia players than to directly defend them or to at least openly analyze them (granted, we don't know ShiaoPi's flip at this point). On December 06 2012 04:28 austinmcc wrote: Can't figure out what to make of ShiaoPi. If he were scum, then scum was under pressure yesterday to get votes on WBG and we can maybe get something out of that. If he's not scum...come on man. We need more analysis from you regardless, but also you've got a lot of people on you and you don't seem very worried. Pleasantly surprised to be alive...how is that your reaction to nearly being lynched? How is your reaction just "Ok, cool. I'm alive, this is good, wow some interesting stuff sure happened there, be back maybe before the end of night or perhaps just D3." I don't expect LVII(i think that's correct) end-of-game antics from you, but...it would be nice if we had more to work off of with you. You're posting very infrequently, often just to say that you'll be gone some more. That doesn't give us anything to work with, and it starts to look like you're just stalling and trying to keep from getting lynched for another day or so. Once again some more vague comments on ShiaoPi after the WBG lynch, although this time apparently willing to lynch him. I can't help but feel like austinmcc has realized that his scumbuddy is most likely being lynched tomorrow, and that this post is the start for preparations to convincingly bus him and get some towncred. There's also a stark difference between austinmcc's lenient attitude towards ShiaoPi's scummy points and his way of finding the smallest things about WBG as scummy. This is just an intro, and not really a convincing case without knowing ShiaoPi's alignment at all, but considering my scumread on ShiaoPi and the lack of other suspects, I'll have to drop my townread on austinmcc and read through his filter looking for possible Mafia motivations later. | ||
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On December 06 2012 06:25 austinmcc wrote: Peculiar. I'm reluctant to talk about ShiaoPi and I rarely mention him or ask him anything. Yet you can pull out a couple quotes showing me doing that... Yes, the interaction is odd. I'm trying to figure out someone who just won't post, but who has done so as town and scum both before. Plus, he's someone I usually read based off of his reads, and without more info from him I find it difficult to read him myself. I'm not saying you never mentioned him. It's just that you've done so very rarely and when you did, it was just some wishy-washy stuff without any result (except your apparent reluctance to lynch him until that latest post of yours, I guess). But this is all just speculation without ShiaoPi's flip... I definitely don't think you should be lynched unless ShiaoPi flips Mafia. | ||
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On December 06 2012 08:09 austinmcc wrote: Yup. I had a confirmed scum check. You KNOW someone is scum, 100%. But town is in an okay spot and doesn't NEED a scum lynch D2 to survive, and you think one of the top lynch candidates looks scum + is being defended by the guy you know is scum + the guy you know is scum is attacking the only other candidate. Do you think it's actually ridiculous to try and milk information out of scum in that situation? I want Sandro to take stances, to give thoughts (you'll note there isn't very much of that beyond the lynch post we all (including me) kind of liked). I'd like to be able to look back after lynching him D3, and maybe finding another scum N2, to be able to try and get some associative juju going. I'm having some major difficulties buying this claim. If you actually found a confirmed scum N1, it sure looked nothing like it. You didn't pressure him, you looked like you thought he was town all day, you didn't breadcrumb, you didn't share your PM when you claimed... The list just goes on and on. And now you're just throwing your vote at him all of a sudden. Why? I'd take a wild guess that this is a desperate move since you know you're in a tight spot. All the more so if you and ShiaoPi are the remaining scum, which makes lots of sense. What's more, I don't see Sandroba as scummy (especially compared to ShiaoPi/yourself). This only leaves one option. ##Vote austinmcc | ||
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On December 06 2012 08:22 debears wrote: Xata I would like some insight Why would austin claim and say he knows sandro is scum and he is watcher if scum? He's watcher and sandro scum - he wants to make sure we lynch mafia He's scum and sandro scum - bus sandro for town cred he's scum and sandro town - get a mislynch and a 1 for 1 trade point 3 is just dumb The situation is desperate for Mafia right now. We have several confirmed townies and several high townreads among the players. It's going to be very difficult to get a mislynch through traditional means. This could well be just a (risky) move to trade one for one, which is a good trade in this situation. It buys time to kill 2 confirmed townies and turn this into a more manageable situation. | ||
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On December 06 2012 08:23 debears wrote: So, the way I see it, if we lynch sandro, we get a scum no matter what Are you honestly convinced by austin's claim? And are you okay with us losing 2 confirmed townies if we mislynch Sandroba? I don't know why you're so indifferent towards this lynch. | ||
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On December 06 2012 08:31 Xatalos wrote: Are you honestly convinced by austin's claim? And are you okay with us losing 2 confirmed townies if we mislynch Sandroba? I don't know why you're so indifferent towards this lynch. Might I add: 2 confirmed townies + 1 non-confirmed town for 1 scum. That's a REALLY bad trade...!!! | ||
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On December 06 2012 08:34 austinmcc wrote: Xatalos I have a sneaking suspicion you might be scum too Yes, I could be mean old nasty scum, just trying to get you to lynch Sandroba in order to buy time for me to NK townies. MWAHAHAHAHA. Of course, you could be mean old nasty scum, just trying to get people to lynch me in order to buy time for you to NK townies. MWAHAHAHAHA. I don't know about anyone else, and I only called it peculiar at the time, but this post felt INCREDIBLY constructed and worked-on, compared to a lot of the thread. It yelled I'M A SCUM POST. I'M A SCUM POST. to me when I first read it. + Show Spoiler + On December 06 2012 06:16 Xatalos wrote: I'm starting to believe more and more that all of the claims so far have been real. There are some strong points to be made for all of them: 1) If DYH was SK, it would be an almost impossible stroke of luck that he claimed Vigi at such a time when it couldn't have realistically saved him anymore - although it managed to somehow save him anyway. And even if he still somehow was SK, it's a fact that there are still Mafia alive, so it's beyond stupid IMO to lynch a nearly confirmed Vigi while letting Mafia freely continue killing. 2) Keirathi was WBG's Mason partner, and unless this is some really cruel joke of a setup by the host, Keirathi must be town. Granted, it's "paranoia" Mafia, but lynching a confirmed Mason would be too stupid (realistically just doing Mafia's work for them). 3) BH/MrZentor would have been extremely stupid to fakeclaim just to ensure one mislynch at the cost of certainly losing the game eventually. Think about it: we now know that they are both town or both Mafia. If one of them would flip Mafia (lynch/SK kill/whatever), it would be GG right there and then. It's an extremely disadvantegeous position to put yourself into without any real gain. It's also most likely that one of them will be nightkilled before LYLO, which would confirm the other. It would make absolutely zero sense to lynch either of them. That means we have pretty much half the players as confirmed town, which is a great spot. I'm worried about what roles Mafia might have, though (or if they might have 4 players) considering the strong roles town has. But now it's basically just a process of elimination to figure out the remaining Mafia. Realistically DYH, Keirathi, BH and MrZentor are out of the picture. I'm also leaning town on debears, sandroba, austinmcc and Lazermonkey. That just leaves... ShiaoPi. What?? There's just no way there would be only 2 Mafia in a setup this stacked with blue roles. I feel like our only sensible option is to lynch ShiaoPi tomorrow, and in hindsight I feel it might have been better to lynch him today instead of WBG. Although WBG's flip at least (practically) confirmed Keirathi and the reality of this setup having tons of blues, so it's not too bad. I started suspecting this earlier and it's still on the back of my mind, although it ONLY makes sense if ShiaoPi is indeed Mafia. I mean austinmcc's weird behavior towards ShiaoPi. Let me show you some posts of his: It somehow looks like austinmcc is reluctant to talk about ShiaoPi. He rarely even mentions ShiaoPi, let alone asks him anything or interacts with him. When he does mention ShiaoPi, it's like this post (soft defending him without really committing to anything). In my mind it's way more scummy to make vague defenses for Mafia players than to directly defend them or to at least openly analyze them (granted, we don't know ShiaoPi's flip at this point). Once again some more vague comments on ShiaoPi after the WBG lynch, although this time apparently willing to lynch him. I can't help but feel like austinmcc has realized that his scumbuddy is most likely being lynched tomorrow, and that this post is the start for preparations to convincingly bus him and get some towncred. There's also a stark difference between austinmcc's lenient attitude towards ShiaoPi's scummy points and his way of finding the smallest things about WBG as scummy. This is just an intro, and not really a convincing case without knowing ShiaoPi's alignment at all, but considering my scumread on ShiaoPi and the lack of other suspects, I'll have to drop my townread on austinmcc and read through his filter looking for possible Mafia motivations later. Wut? Is that post supposed to be a joke or something? If so, I'd appreciate if you actually tried to convince the thread you're telling the truth. Like... Any breadcrumbs? Role PM? Anything? | ||
Xatalos
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On December 06 2012 08:43 austinmcc wrote: Although you being scum makes the interactions between you/ShiaoPi and sandroba/ShiaoPi all the weirder. Are you BOTH bussing him? I guess then you bus him, use that post to say it implicates me, then get me lynched while trying to get a little cred for lynching ShiaoPi? Curious. All I know for sure right now, is that Sandroba is scum. If you think I'm so scummy, why is Sandroba townie? I notice in that post you say "you're leaning town" on Sandroba, but you don't give any further reasoning. See posts like these: D1 - Xatalos thinks Dandel Ion is scummy 3 posts, VE and Dandel Ion so scummy. Let's lynch em. Let's lynch em. N1/D2 - Dandel Ion now Sandroba, Sandroba suddenly townie for no real reason Would you care to explain why Sandroba is townie? Would you care to explain why DI was one of your top scum suspects D1, but D2 it's "Dandel didn't interact with pretty much anyone and Sandroba has been helpful with his posts" so they get a pass? It's curious to me that one of your top 3 scumreads became a guy you think is townie but you never actually said why. The main suspicious point about Dandel Ion was his clear lack of care for achieving anything. He posted little and didn't interact, scumhunt, analyze... It could have been just disinterested town as well though. But Sandroba has been transparent and his posts have been filled with real content. He's not my top town read, given his relative inactivity, but I'm not liking him as scum. | ||
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On December 06 2012 08:46 austinmcc wrote: Breadcrumbs can be faked np. Same as with a breadcrumb, if you believe my claim, you may find that it explains some of my ShiaoPi v. WBG actions, and explains me trying to milk info from Sandroba. If you don't, you'll think I'm making it up, whether breadcrumb or explanation. The "anything" that I can PROVE my role with would be nothing, unless we have a rolecop. However, Sandro will flip red whenever you lynch him. And I'll flip watcher if I die. You're certainly not making it easy to believe you. No breadcrumbs, no PM, no attempts to pressure the confirmed Mafia... All you have is that you tried to "trick" your 100% Mafia target while pushing hard for someone else you thought was "looking scummy". Is that really plausible? I have a hard time seeing that. Surely we'll have to lynch either you or Sandroba today, and if you somehow flipped town it would mean lynching Sandroba tomorrow, but you're the far safer bet to go for now. | ||
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On December 06 2012 09:30 austinmcc wrote: Posts. Specifics. You say Sandroba has been transparent. I disagree (not just because he didn't tell us he was scum). You say his posts have been filled with content. Replaces in, promises an end of night post. Fine, some people like not posting during night, but Sandroba JUST JOINED and says nothing but that there will be an end of night post. Here is his giant night post. 4 townreads including "so townie I don't understand how you baddies blah blah blah" which doesn't actually say anything. 2 scumreads, one he "doesn't think he needs to explain" and one post from Zealos that he doesn't like because "it has scum written all over it" LOOK AT THAT NIGHT POST. He replaces in, waits all night, ends night with that post. There are his reads. Half of them aren't even reads, they're just him saying he thinks someone is town or scum but without an actual reason. This from someone who replaced in, for someone who was inactive. ShiaoPi stood by sidelines, isn't doing shit. That's worth of a vote. WBG picks up some votes 11 hours later he finally defends WBG. On what grounds? "WBG's behavior makes no sense as mafia." No posts, no quoting, just "his behavior doesn't make sense." his "tone and emotional content" were genuine. No specifics. It's not quite a nothingpost, but it says what Sandroba thinks without the WHY he thinks that. N2 we get like 5 lines responding to DYH's rabbit hole. So Xatalos, Where has Sandroba been transparent? Which posts were filled with real content to you? Point them out. Let's discuss this. I know he's scum, but I'm curious about your defense of him. Because right now, you've never mentioned a single specific post, and I 100% disagree that Sandroba has been transparent. Moreover, I 1000% disagree with you that Sandroba was "transparent" at the time you made mention of him being so. I see a few posts with some reasoning and some logic, but most of them are after you already starting leaning townie on him. Really, looking at Sandroba's filter, it just reads more and more town. Every post of his (except a small number of totally unimportant one-liners and such) has: A) tried to figure out players and details about their play, such as: On December 03 2012 05:36 sandroba wrote: Normally if there is no mention of sanity you assume sane, otherwise it's too much trolling by the host. If you don't know your sanity, you are a least informed that you don't. Did you ask and did the host answer you? I don't need to know what the answer was, yet. On December 03 2012 21:47 sandroba wrote: @BH that comment on marv interactions seeming fake is annoying me, why would you think that? B) put pressure on players he's found suspicious, such as: On December 03 2012 06:51 sandroba wrote: @VE anything would like to add? I must say you didn't make an impact at all in the game and I only noticed you were playing after rereading the thread. What's your stance on DYH/BH after this quick switch and the late claim? On December 03 2012 07:13 sandroba wrote: @BH didn't you pull very similar shit on bureaucracy day 1 as scum? Yes you did. On December 04 2012 02:47 sandroba wrote: @kei Let's assume lynching BH is out of the question today. Who would you want to lynch instead? C) shared his reads very transparently without ANY pressure to do so, such as: On December 03 2012 07:40 sandroba wrote: I have to go out quickly so I'ma post my thoughts early: Sandroba's Town List for dummies (TM): WBG - marvelosity = both too emo ragers for it to be fake. I can't see the genuine asshole behavior being faked here and there is no scum motivation for it. I would seriously like to lynch marv for being an assface jerk, but unfortunately I can't convince myself he is scum. Xatalos - LOL this guy is so townie I don't understand how you baddies manage to bandwagon him day 1. 'Nuff said. DYH - I really thought this guy was scum for his retard case on xatalos before I read the last 30 pages. However that last minute claim looks really good so I'm putting him as town. Hopefully he can get confirmed by shooting into scummers tonight. Assuming scum have 1 rb (can't really imagine them having 2) either him or marv should get their actions through. Scummers : Zealos, BlazingHand are scum. I don't think I need to explain why for BH. Read Zealos oportunistic jump on xata wagon. That post has scum written all over it. People that I'm unsure but leaning scum: VE - who you might ask? Yes this dude is playing in this game. I bet you didn't know either. Kei/Ace - Meh ace is a hard one for me to figure out. I thought he was scum when I was obsing because of his "Oh this is interesting" comment, but I'm liking kei a bit more. This BH case seems very convinient though. On December 03 2012 21:38 sandroba wrote: Hmm Bugs does have a point. Also if we assume BH is town ShiaoPi does fit the same theme as VE yesterday. A totally unimpactful player that just stood by the sidelines, because their team was never in danger. I'm willing to roll with that because I'm getting cold feet about BH flipping scum (VE mentioning he is okay with lynching him/zealos should at least make us consider looking in another direction) and Shiao isn't doing shit so it's less risk involved. ##Vote: ShiaoPi On December 03 2012 22:24 sandroba wrote: Well the thing is that VE didn't know he was gonna die. Do you think he would agree preemptively to lynch zealos in that case? I think our best bet is to ignore those 2 for now at least. On December 04 2012 23:08 sandroba wrote: LISTEN PEOPLE! I've reread WBG's filter a couple times by now. Consider please that yesterday lynch was between 2 townies and scum shot marvelosity. WBG's behavior makes no sense as mafia. Even if you can twist it somehow like you guys have been trying to do, the tone and emotional content of his posts are very genuine. I've played with mafia bugs before, and while he is hard to read, he is either non confrontational or trollish, he doesn't pick fights with people for absolutely no gain like he has been doing this game. Now let's look at ShiaoPi. This dude is desperetely trying to survive. Compare his posts d1, when he wasn't in any danger, to his posts today. He is trying really hard to justify any bandwagons he can hop on to save his own ass. Also look at how this retard wagon on bugs gained traction out of the blue. Even more reason to suspect we were right about ShiaoPi. Use your heads please. On December 04 2012 23:51 sandroba wrote: @shiaopi I'm voting for you because i think you are scum. Doesn't matter if you say "but, but, but, i didn't do anything, it's ve's fault" or w/e. To find scum you need to define a pattern in which you believe they will behave given a specific situation. Unfortunatelly for you, you fit the pattern I arbitrarily defined that scum would behave day 1 in a 2 townie wagon and then day 2 after being acused. Ve's comment is just icing on the cake and serves to strenghen my belief and make everything fit toghether even more nicely. On December 04 2012 23:57 sandroba wrote: Being detrimental to the town =/= wbg is scum. His emotional response to marv makes sense given the lack of knowledge of marv's alignment because it was the exact same response I had when reading through those pages. On December 05 2012 22:19 sandroba wrote: Xatalos is most likely not scum. The random Shiaopi isn't scum makes no sense. If you look carefully of how the day went the most likely scenario is that he is indeed scum, given the counter wagons and the hopping out of his wagon as soon as it became clear that there was a possibility of him not being lynched. I don't agree that debears looks townie. I would put him toghether with lazer and austin as the possible remaining scum (besisdes shiaopi). These mason claims I'm going to look into some more. 4 masons does seem like a lot, but I never before have seen scum claiming it. The point is, you can clearly see Sandroba's opinions behind his posts and his posts are all aimed at 1) improving his reads on players 2) pushing the lynch on the most likely scum C) hard defending players he finds townish. Everything just screams "TOWN!". I seriously can't find a single Mafia motivation inside Sandroba's filter. You try to dismiss his reads as "not saying anything" while they in fact are decisive and logical. Sometimes he says stuff like "I can't be bothered to explain it", but that's just being lazy (a null tell), not being vague or evasive (a scum tell). And mostly he DOES have a real reason for his reads. You're grossly exaggerating by saying that he's not providing reasons for his reads. A reason doesn't always have to be a huge commentary on someone's filter, it's just as relevant to analyze someone's overall playstyle, activity, emotions, interactions etc. Often it can be better for finding Mafia motivations than "scumslips" inside walls of text. | ||
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On December 06 2012 10:00 debears wrote: Ok here are my thoughts on the situation 1. Austin lying and we lynch him: We get a scum Sandro most likely confirmed town 2. Austin telling the truth and we lynch him: We lost our watcher Sandro scum confirmed 3. Austin lying and we lynch Sandro: Austin confirmed scum We lose an inactive townie 4. Austin telling the truth and we lynch Sandro: We get a scum Austin most likely watcher Results in which we kill scum first attempt: 1,4 Results in which we get confirmed scum as other after killing a townie: 2,3 So I think the question is which out of 2 or 3 is more favorable for town? The answer is 3 Austin has been active, he has made reads. If he is the watcher it gives the mafia someone to kill as priority Sandro has not been active. He has not made much in terms of read. Scum wouldn't be inclined to nk him quickly Based on the above, from a purely neutral view, lynching sandro is the better choice based purely on how much we lose if austin is telling the truth and we lynch him first. I will ponder the claim and how austin acted n2. But I would like to share this. As of now I would rather lynch Sandro first That's just a stupid way to look at it. If we mislynch, we trade 2 confirmed townies and 1 other townie for 1 Mafia. If we lynch correctly, we trade 1 confirmed townie for 1 Mafia. It's pointless to consider this from a "neutral point of view" and calculate the disadvantages of lynching austinmcc in case he actually is a blue compared to lynching Sandroba in case he is town. There's always a chance that we will fail with the lynch, but it shouldn't be the starting point. It's unquestionably multiple times more beneficial to lynch correctly (saving 2 townies in the process), so we should only focus on that for today. Answer this: do you honestly think austinmcc is more townish of these two? | ||
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On December 06 2012 10:31 austinmcc wrote: I don't want to quote the giant post there, but I think you're making things up. One of the two things Sandroba "tried to figure out" was Marv's sanity, something that scum would want to know. If he's not sane, he's not necessarily a N1 kill. The "pressure" you quote is 3 small questions to people. Do you find that he followed up on his questions? Do his reads look like he actually cared about his questions and the way that other players answered? If "he asked these three questions" is something you find townie...there's a problem. In fact, you'll notice that you said Sandroba felt "townish" after REPLACING ONE OF YOUR TOP 3 SCUMREADS at 19:54 on December 3. Out of the posts you listed of Sandroba's, the following were prior to that: His asking about marv's sanity His 3 dinky questions His reads at the end of the night, which are half "it's so obvious I don't need to explain it" That's what you had to work with when you first said Sandroba seemed townie. Sandroba, the guy who replaced one of your top 3 scumreads from D1. Dandel Ion wasn't a strong scumread for me to at any point, maybe slightly leaning scum. He was just someone I wasn't feeling comfortable about since he didn't really seem to care. But Sandroba was the opposite, instantly asking relevant questions and sharing his opinions about any topic. Granted, I'd like to see some more evidence for his opinions from now on, but the point is that he clearly cares about what's happening in the thread and tries to actively direct the flow of the thread. IMO his posting style is a bit like MrZentor's, except more townish (with more reasoning and less sheeping). If you find Sandroba scummy, you should find MrZentor scummy as well (granted, he's clearly a Mason, but I mean on principle). | ||
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On December 06 2012 10:52 austinmcc wrote: If Dandel Ion wasn't a strong scumread for you, then who WERE your strong scumreads D1? 3 different opportunities you grouped together VE/DYH/Dandel Ion. VE was scummiest to you, you did say that. And I'm not whether I believe you'd have put 2 scumbuddies in a list of three. If Dandel Ion wasn't a strong scumread, was DYH? If neither of those were strong scumreads, you just had a strong scumread on VE and nobody else? I didn't really have any strong scumreads during Day 1. I had some slight townreads (DarthPunk, austinmcc, debears) and some slight scumreads (DYH, VE, Dandel). It's all evident from my filter. I was willing to lynch one of those three, and since DYH was basically the only realistic option, I voted for him in the end. I'd say that I was actually suspicious of VE and DYH but only uncomfortable about Dandel, making him not the ideal lynch for me. Luckily we didn't lynch him and he was replaced by a much more useful player. It's useless to get stuck on something like how Dandel/Sandroba became scum->town in my mind, since it should be pretty obvious just looking at the differences in their posting. Also keep in mind that my original scumread on Dandel was weak and it didn't require much to change it. But DYH only became town in my mind with his Vigi claim (really unlikely to be a fakeclaim) and VE actually was Mafia. So that's that. On December 06 2012 15:15 sandroba wrote: Austin, thx for making life easier =) We can lynch austin then shiaopi -> lazer -> debears if we haven't won by then. Can scum just concede and save us the time? ##Vote Austin I think you must be town at this point, but please put in some more effort. If you're town, you of course know that austinmcc is Mafia, but that's not the case for the rest of us. Why are Lazermonkey and debears suspicious? Why should we lynch austinmcc instead of you? Where does your strong townread on me come from? austinmcc is actively participating in the discussion recently while you are not, which is making it slightly harder for me. If you're town, there's no danger in participating. What you say is true and your posts will be logically coherent without any effort. If you're Mafia, it's of course easier to just stay on the background and let things roll at their own pace. No risk involved. So, don't be lazy about this (although austinmcc is likely lynched anyways) and show without a doubt that austinmcc is the right choice. | ||
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On December 07 2012 02:55 Keirathi wrote: Argg fuck me. I can't decide if I believe austin or not. On the one hand, why would scum claim a red check when they had done nothing about ti? Like, if you I was going to fake claim with a red check, I would have at least said it was a red check on someone I had been pushing. But on the other hand, I still can't get over: I can't wrap my head around any possible motivation for that bit about sandro being shot by scum. That REALLY pushes it towards feeling like a fake claim that just forgot something he said earlier. The problem is (for austinmcc) that there was no other option. WBG is dead, Zealos is dead, DYH is dead, BH is confirmed town. Who else did he push? He casted some suspicion on ShiaoPi early on, but didn't actually pursue that at any point - actually, quite the opposite. He's been soft defending ShiaoPi after the initial suspicion. He hasn't been pushing anyone he could conveniently frame now. So, his only option is to frame some non-confirmed townie he hasn't been pushing so far (Sandroba, Lazermonkey, debears, myself). Considering that there are possibly Mafia on this list, and that I'm a strong townread for several players, Sandroba isn't really a bad/weird pick for austinmcc. Nobody has him as a high townread and he hasn't done *too* much during this game. It's not a bad bet that he could manage to get Sandroba mislynched today - at least easier than someone like myself or especially one of BH/MrZ/Keirathi. I don't see how austinmcc choosing Sandroba as Mafia is unlikely at all. | ||
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On December 07 2012 05:24 Keirathi wrote: You're missing the point I was trying to make. If Austin was scum and wanted to fake claim to get sandro lynched, it would have made infinitely more sense to claim after the day post and say sandro killed DYH night 2. The problem is that if Austin is town and had a red check yesterday...well pretty much anything else would have made infinitely more sense than what he actually did. I don't know how to decide if his play was terrible scum or terrible town. Hmmmmm. Alright, I can see your point. This is really weird/bad play no matter his alignment. Is it really plausible that he would have intentionally made his job harder if he was Mafia trying to get a mislynch? Is it really plausible that he would have publicly announced Sandroba as a townread of his and had almost non-existent interaction with him during Day 2 if he was 100% certain Sandroba was Mafia? None of this makes any sense. But if he's playing suboptimally in any case, I'd rather lean on the possibility that he messed up / tried to somehow WIFOM his way around this as Mafia (rather than that he didn't act upon his confirmed Mafia knowledge). | ||
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A) If he is Mafia, austinmcc is most certainly Mafia as well. They're just connected in so many scummy ways. B) austinmcc flipping Mafia would basically confirm Sandroba as town (unless this is some CRAZY tactic play, but that's not really realistic at all). C) austinmcc would be far more dangerous alive than ShiaoPi in my opinion (deciding NK's, power role usage, convincing players not to lynch him, etc). D) austinmcc's filter is a huge pile of information to look at if he flips red, but ShiaoPi's filter isn't that useful to look at. | ||
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On December 07 2012 20:58 Blazinghand wrote: man no i get the point though, one of austinmcc/sandro si scum, and sandro is townie and austin is scummy so we should lynch austin by that logic but damn man look at shiaopi. just look at that sucker. tell me that dude is town! tell me! Tell me in a way that i'd believe even for a second! Haha, I can't do that, because I don't believe it myself. The point is that they're very likely both Mafia (probably with one Mafia remaining after them). But lynching austinmcc would clear Sandroba and give us much more information than lynching ShiaoPi. And I have bad experiences about not lynching one of the two players in a redcheck situation... One game I was lynched even after the DT had a redcheck on a real Mafia. It was even LYLO.... So we lost the game when it could have been easily won just by deciding to lynch one of the two. | ||
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I'm having some trouble figuring him out. On the other hand, when I read his filter, he is basically commenting on anything he notices and generally seems like a genuine carefree townie. But on the other hand, his posts about austinmcc today strike me as weird. At first he wanted to lynch Sandroba based on some speculation, then he hesitated some more, finally coming to the conclusion that he wanted to lynch austinmcc after all. This would fit with Mafia reluctantly bussing his teammate when left no other option. But then I keep coming back to this post. On December 02 2012 09:05 debears wrote: Actually nvm. I think we should save it for lylo It could be helpful. EVERYONE WHO IS TOWN. LOOK AT YOUR ROLE PM COMPARED TO MARV'S AND THE ONE REVEALED TO BE DP'S DON'T REVEAL IF IT'S DIFFERENT YET. WAIT UNTIL LYLO IF NEED BE THEN REVEAL I just don't see Mafia posting something like this (or some other posts of his either). I'm starting to get a bit paranoid about the differently highlighted PM's myself, and I wonder if debears actually knows something about this that he's going to save until LYLO. Maybe some special role? Or special PM? Then again, why is debears so confident that he's going to live until LYLO anyway? Could that be a scumslip? Ugh... This setup is the weirdest one I've ever played, that's for sure. | ||
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On December 07 2012 21:37 ShiaoPi wrote: Let's get this on, Sandroba/Dandel Ion: I am starting this with another look at Dandel Ion, remember the one sandroba replaced? No, well that's the thing, he never took any position and was replaced out before he voted, maybe it is due to time constraints, but keep it in the back of your mind that Dandel Ion was more than happy to do nothing d1. Now onto the n1 and beyond when sand takes over n1: Sandroba is active a lot and does some prodding around the relevant issues in thread at that time, So far he already looks miles better than dandel ever did. not much to take notice of here. At the end of the night he gives out a couple of reads: First thing in the morning, he votes for me, "convinced" by bugs trash "case". Look at this closely! First he agrees with bugs nitpicking from the filter of VE, where I get mentioned, then he says he "assumes" BH as town in this scenario, when he was his biggest scumread earlier. As main thing justifiying this change of opinion is VE's filter yet again, but this time he is suddenly wary of the things inside VE's filter. I do get softdefended by VE but VE being "ok" with lynching BH is basically the same thing if you take it at facevalue. Now the intersting thing is that he is willing to lynch a less-risky target instead of his earlier top-scumread.... For most of the day he is doing nothing, except some more double-standards regarding VE's filter: It is basically WIFOM but here WIFOM is not enough to convince him to make a go on Zealos, while in my case it was enough. Why? Then he cruises by until the bugs train gains momentum. He posts this: + Show Spoiler + On December 04 2012 23:08 sandroba wrote: LISTEN PEOPLE! I've reread WBG's filter a couple times by now. Consider please that yesterday lynch was between 2 townies and scum shot marvelosity. WBG's behavior makes no sense as mafia. Even if you can twist it somehow like you guys have been trying to do, the tone and emotional content of his posts are very genuine. I've played with mafia bugs before, and while he is hard to read, he is either non confrontational or trollish, he doesn't pick fights with people for absolutely no gain like he has been doing this game. Now let's look at ShiaoPi. This dude is desperetely trying to survive. Compare his posts d1, when he wasn't in any danger, to his posts today. He is trying really hard to justify any bandwagons he can hop on to save his own ass. Also look at how this retard wagon on bugs gained traction out of the blue. Even more reason to suspect we were right about ShiaoPi. Use your heads please. He is defending his hardtownread, but what is the main argument tone/emotional content are genuine? seriously? He also engages with debears case: + Show Spoiler + On December 04 2012 23:47 sandroba wrote: Adressing points on debears case: 1) WBG defended DP, but didn't care DYH was lynched. I would have mislynched DYH 100% D1 if not for his vigi claim. As I've stated before I thought his case on xatalos was utter bullshit and was very convinced of this guy being scum before replacing in. It doesn't surprise me that WBG didn't care if DYH got lynched instead of DP, which he had a town read on. Now as to why he didn't push DYH instead of going for marv I don't know, but I have to admit that marv's claim was pretty sketchy and I had to think real hard before determining he was likely town. "I am DT" in the middle of D1 with slight pressure on him, followed by "I might not be sane" after people start unvoting him looks suspicious as fuck, specially when you are biased because the dude is being a dick in the thread. For mafia it would make way more sense and be way easier to simply ignore marv and try to get into one of the main alternate wagons. Since you say WBG had no qualms lynching DYH why would he not as mafia simply jump on his wagon instead of trying to get marv lynched. Surely you can imagine the backlash he would suffer once marv flipped DT. 2)Vote on marv I adressed this on the block above. 3)Bunch of random facts stating facts and saying that they are scummy does not make it so. 'nuff said 4)bunch of random facts see above 5) Meta comparison to mad men I thought he was mafia on mad men. I then learned he wasn't. Your comparison is good for proving he is likely town this game though. You see, wbg and erandor had a much closer relationship than you-him. WBG expected erandor to identify he is town and got pissed off and raged in the thread. Simillar to how he expects better of marv and raged in the thread/assumed he was scum for playing like shit D1. The fact that he didn't adress your points can be explained by how he doesn't know your play/doesn't expect much from you and sees no needs to adress a case that has no traction. I doesn't mean he is auto mafia for ignoring you, sorry. 6) claims meta is the same even if you say it isn't yes. so? Except of the first paragraph he is actually not answering the case at all, he is just talking it down, trying to shut it down with not much real arguments. It would basically be okayish to do that, but in regards of bugs flip and austins check I think he was just trying to get some cred for defending bugs. Now in further pushing me: So I am scum, because he decided so, nice stuff, nice stuff. Fast forward to n2: He is now stating the scumteam as me and some out of lazer/austin/debears. Little to no reasoning at all (besides some stupid stuff about me), looking in his filter we have exactly this mentioning of Lazer, while I can agree with that read since he is fucking useless in gaga-tunneling it is interesting to see debears and austin on that list as well. Sure it can be kind of through negative deduction with him having town reads on Xata and all the masons, but besides this post there is little to no interaction between him and these two. How did he arrive on these reads and why? Now in d3, he just votes austin, not a big deal as scum or town would do that in face of a redcheck, but wtf starting speculation on a possible traitor role? Sure it is a closed setup and the game is called paranoia, but why bring it up in the first place? Occams Razor says he is either a watcher with a red check or a stupid scum for doing a fakeclaim to trade 1for1. I am inclined to believe it is a watcher. -------------------------------------------------------------------- Now on to my read on austin: He starts to scumhunt early into d1: + Show Spoiler + On November 30 2012 11:01 austinmcc wrote: Your votes, in particular, aren't very important. Dandel is discrediting himself. You say it doesn't make sense from a town perspective. However, it doesn't make any more sense from a scum perspective. Then you quickly drop a new vote on DoYouHas. Because...you don't think that you would sheep Ace because he's Ace. DoYouHas does NOT want people sheeping Ace based on reputation. You want the same, but vote him because he said that? What exactly is your reasoning for voting DoYouHas? + Show Spoiler + On November 30 2012 11:22 austinmcc wrote: He's not asking to be ignored. This is the chain in which Dandel Ion speaks: He says he's a noob. Discrediting was DoYouHas's word I believe, but I'd argue that (1) There can be benefits to scum in lurking (2) What Dandel Ion did (making a post calling himself a noob) =/= lurking To some extent, calling yourself a noob implies that you're going to sit back and let other people do the heavy lifting. But I don't really attribute any kind of purpose to Dandel Ion's post like that, and I don't think it makes sense for scum to point out newness, because iirc every newbie guide says apologies/hiding behind newness = scum. tl;dr I think there's a difference between lurking/being passive/playing to be ignored and Dandel Ion's post. Just 2 of many examples of him prodding/analyzing all day long. He is also sharing reads repeatedly e.g.: + Show Spoiler + On December 02 2012 06:32 austinmcc wrote: I think Zealos is my top scumread. ##vote: Zealos Beyond that, I'm worried about...hmmmm. Both you and DP concern me, I don't think both of you are scum, but I can't figure out which is which. Right now, I'm inclined to believe you're scummier between the two. DP had some good points on you, and I was going back and forth with you yesterday because I haven't played with you (I don't think), so I wanted to try and get a better sense of where you were. I came away feeling alright from that exchange, but reading over how some other people viewed it, I think a lot of my good feelings came from the fact that you actually interacted and kept things moving somewhat, and I wasn't paying enough attention to your actual comments on folks. However, you're not my #2 scumread. That's actually ShiaoPi right now. I don't like typing that out, it seems like someone else should be there, but it's him. I don't care about reading BH right now, because I think he's useful for town regardless of his alignment. I'm not bothering to really try and solidify reads on some people that aren't relevant to the D1 lynch - Ace, Zentor, DYH. Nobody in the remaining players sticks out to me like Zealos, ShiaoPi, and you do. Read those posts I quoted, I would assume it gets rather obvious that his d1-play was incredibly pro-town. Now the main problem of you seems to be that he did not react at all to the redcheck he got. Now without knowing the fact that he has a redcheck, go through his day2 posts, they are more of the same, contstructive posts, pushing discussion, asking questions, sharing reads, in short townplay. Now lets take a look at his claim: + Show Spoiler + On December 06 2012 08:00 austinmcc wrote: Assorted stuff. I don't think I will die tonight, but there's a small chance, and may as well get this into the open. I am a watcher. N1 I watched marvellosity. Sandroba, and only Sandroba, visited him. Therefore, Sandroba killed marvellosity. Therefore, Sandroba. If you look at my D2, I ask Sandroba a couple questions, some concerning his reads on ShiaoPi and WBG, especially his defense of WBG. This is one reason I ended up locked in on WBG and not wanting to lynch ShiaoPi, and one reason I've been weird about ShiaoPi. Sandroba dropped a vote and ShiaoPi early and was gone for much of the rest of the day, and defended WBG in this odd manner. In my mind, knowing that Sandroba was scum, it made the choice between the two easy - lynch WBG. I didn't claim because I actually thought WBG was scum, that there was no need to claim to ensure a scum lynch. Now, we've got a bit of uncertainty, so I can do so. We can lynch Sandroba to partially-confirm me if you guys would like, you can lynch me to confirm (not recommended). Tonight I am watching keirathi or BH. Still flipping back and forth between the two (5 minutes until end). Scum, non-sandroba scum, pretty please shoot the guy I'm watching. Right now I'm worried about the power roles in town. Confirmed cop, confirmed 1 mason pair of at least one townie, I'm confirmed watcher to me. That leaves a vigi...maybe? And maybe other masons. For a game in which scum had one KP N1 allegedly. Not buying it. Either DYH is scum or SK or scum has large numbers low KP, something. Otherwise, I've kind of been a bum as I am wont to be when blue, relying on role too much to play the game and not analysis, and also trying to wrap my head around CT mafia. Now that this is in the open, I can go back to playing normally. Slash what an awful end of night/claim post. Why claim at night if you are scum? YOu could easily just do so at day, since you will not get shot anyway. straightforwardclaim in which he also shares some of his reasons for claiming now, and why he was not on the fence against sandroba. I can understand him and therefore I chose to believe his claim. Now look further into the day, even when pressured from so many sides he continues to scumhunt: + Show Spoiler + On December 06 2012 08:43 austinmcc wrote: Although you being scum makes the interactions between you/ShiaoPi and sandroba/ShiaoPi all the weirder. Are you BOTH bussing him? I guess then you bus him, use that post to say it implicates me, then get me lynched while trying to get a little cred for lynching ShiaoPi? Curious. All I know for sure right now, is that Sandroba is scum. If you think I'm so scummy, why is Sandroba townie? I notice in that post you say "you're leaning town" on Sandroba, but you don't give any further reasoning. See posts like these: D1 - Xatalos thinks Dandel Ion is scummy 3 posts, VE and Dandel Ion so scummy. Let's lynch em. Let's lynch em. N1/D2 - Dandel Ion now Sandroba, Sandroba suddenly townie for no real reason Would you care to explain why Sandroba is townie? Would you care to explain why DI was one of your top scum suspects D1, but D2 it's "Dandel didn't interact with pretty much anyone and Sandroba has been helpful with his posts" so they get a pass? It's curious to me that one of your top 3 scumreads became a guy you think is townie but you never actually said why. and also this: + Show Spoiler + On December 07 2012 05:15 austinmcc wrote: Lazer, if you're still around, let's have a chat. I wanted to look you over and was, but now you're here. Hooray! You, along with all other not-mes, find my actions ridiculous and don't believe my claim. Okay. So then, about my play: (1) You think my play is less optimal as town than as scum. Go into that, why? You think I didn't play out D2 properly if I had a red check. But that applies equally to not playing out my D2 properly if I was going to do this as scum. Especially given that I can easily make up other things as scum. Why is one less optimal than the other? (2) Have you looked at the past games I listed? Do they matter to you? Should they? As to you, I see a mix of posts in your filter. Mostly short ones. Some longer ones when you respond, make a case on ShiaoPi, actually get involved. But apart from throwing in some general musings on WBG/ShiaoPi and masons, and your case on ShiaoPi, I don't get the feeling there's much there. DYH was worried about you yesterday, and now he's a bit deceased. So, some questions. At the end of each night, you've given two massive posts of reads. Why? Why not give them throughout the night? Why are most of your reads only ever popping up this late? Moreover, your reads on Sandroba haven't exactly been townie... You don't see a town motivation for a post Sandroba made. That's basically your only comment on Sandroba. Did you ever go look at Sandroba? If not...why not? Especially given he's a major player in today's lynch, why haven't you looked at him? THough to most of you this post of him sums it up pretty much I guess: I believe him, you don't, I have a scumread on sandroba you dont. Also please keep in mind he was the only one who asked for mason logs. Those logs have basically confirmed BH/Zentor as town, there is no fucking way that those were faked. What would be to gain for austin to keep asking for the logs at end of the n2 and now during d3. Don't tell me it's this, because he obviously was not serious: There is so much more town-motivated play behind austins post than behind sandroba. Thing is you are all blinded by the fact that he did not push a redcheck he had. Everything else is unimportant to you. So following your logic there is no way for me to convince you even with this wall of text. But please please consider what I wrote here. Austin is our watcher and it is incredibly silly to lynch him now.... I agree that austinmcc's play was proactive and overall townish during Day 1. That's why I put him as a townread then. The point where I started getting suspicious was him squirming about you (especially since you're starting to feel like a confirmed scum at this point). Then his claim... He didn't breadcrumb his redcheck, he didn't act upon it in the slightest... It's just too much to believe it's real. It's a point in his favor that he asked for masonlogs, but it's something easy to do as either alignment, and doesn't really tell much (they would have probably provided them sooner or later in any case). I'm not really convinced of that scumread you have on Sandroba. You start by saying that he's "looking much better than Dandel" (who was somewhat of a null read). So you had a townread on him before the events of Day 2? But you don't really point out anything scummy in his play during Day 2 - okay, maybe his inactivity, laziness to reason and opinion changes without real explanation, but those are just lazy/anti-town/null traits, not inherently SCUMMY traits. If you compare to MrZentor, MrZentor has been WAY more fickle and lazy than Sandroba ever was. Yet he's very evidently town. There's just no Mafia agenda to be seen behind Sandroba, although I agree that his play as town isn't optimal. | ||
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On December 08 2012 01:23 ShiaoPi wrote: Can you pkease switch off austin??? Seriously he is town as fuck. Get over the fact that ge did not crumb and pkay the way you would play tracker. Hm. I have to say that austinmcc's defense today has felt townish. But it would mean that Sandroba is Mafia and you+austinmcc are pretty much confirmed town. And I have quite a hard time believing that the remaining Mafia would be something like Sandroba+debears+Lazermonkey/debears instead of austinmcc+ShiaoPi+Lazermonkey/debears. | ||
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On December 08 2012 01:48 austinmcc wrote: I didn't "not react" to my watch. I reacted, but in a way that nobody likes. I decided to be sneaky, but don't seem to have done that well, and didn't get anything for it really. And no, I didn't crumb. But I generally haven't crumbed my roles, and I didn't crumb when I found a message in Bureaucracy, and didn't crumb when I shot someone in LVII. Hmmm. I can somehow accept that you don't usually crumb, although it's stupid. But being "sneaky" (passive) after getting a redcheck is just too much to believe. I think your way of defending yourself today is townish, I really do... more townish than Sandroba's play today definitely... still, it's not enough to change my vote. I can't bring myself to believe you actually got a redcheck on Sandroba and didn't actively pursue that. | ||
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On December 08 2012 02:23 austinmcc wrote: So I was playing townish on D1. I'm playing townish today. But you disagree with what I did D2. That's fine. But if I've mainly been playing townish, and Sandroba doesn't seem to be playing townish (and bee tee dubs, is supposedly lazy as scum), then I'm not entirely clear why the vote's on me. If we kill sandroba today, he'll flip red. You guys will almost certainly see me flip tonight, because sandroba would be gone and scum would be taking a risk trying to kill someone without getting watched. They could try and be tricksy with targeting, but even that confirms me somewhat - a less-than-optimal NK shows that they're playing around a watch. You may not believe I have a redcheck, fine. But that entirely overpowers the fact that I was playing townie on D1, townie today, that Sandroba isn't raelly playing townie? When I've got a history of being somewhat retarded with my roles (although less so than this I guess) and Sandroba has a history of being lazy scum? Ugh........ This is hard. It's a good point that Sandroba is supposed to be lazy as Mafia... and he's playing very lazy now... and not exactly townish either... while you're playing active and townish... meaning he might be the Mafia after all......? Even though your Day 2 doesn't make really sense as town. But you've played retarded as town before, I guess. Now I'm unsure again. | ||
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On December 08 2012 02:49 austinmcc wrote: Hi town, it's me, austinmcc, and I'm one of you. You are pretty sure that only one of Sandroba or I is town, and the other is mafia. I am either town and trying to figure the game out today, trying to leave you with my thoughts, trying to pull extra information out of other players OR I'm putting on a show of it. I'm asking for logs, I'm poking at lazermonkey, I'm actually doing things to get reads and push the game forward. But yes, I could be making a show of it. On the other hand, Sandroba, at most, is ... reading. That's nice of him, and it's nice he thinks today has just been a circular argument, but it hasn't. Today you will probably lynch me or lynch Sandroba. The game will almost certainly not end. Sandroba is putting no effort into the longer game. Sandroba is putting no effort into figuring things out. Sandroba is content to sit back and read, not engage, and do nothing. If I'm actually trying to push the game forward today, that fits. I'm town; he's scum; we're playing about how you'd expect. If I'm putting on a show of it...what is he doing? In that world, I'm mafia and he's town. Yet he's not making an effort to do anything beyond see me lynched. He's not trying to figure the game out, he's not engaging in any discussion, he's not asking for logs from our claimed masons. If you think that I'm just putting on a show, then why isn't Sandroba trying to do anything today? Becuase either he gets lynched today or tomorrow. There's no reason for him to put effort into this game, because he's dead either way. I'll flip watcher, you'll lynch him. There's absolutely no scenario where he survives and helps his team, so there's no reason for him to put in any effort. I'm actually starting to believe in the possibility of you being town. Sandroba playing like he has would definitely fit a Mafia who has given up and isn't going to leak any more information, since he's dead soon. But you've continued pushing even harder to play the game when your death has seemed almost certain. That's not how I'd expect Mafia to play at all. And if you're Mafia, you have really done an incredible job of appearing so townish throughout the game... I'm seriously reconsidering right now. Sandroba, how about you try adding something to the discussion? | ||
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On December 08 2012 02:42 sandroba wrote: I'm not being lazy, I just don't see the point in repeating the obvious ten times over. Austin is for sure putting in a good show, but that's to be expected since it's likely he put all his chips in this silly move. I am reading this constantly, I just don't feel like participating in this circular argument. On December 08 2012 02:58 sandroba wrote: Huh? I'm not posting huge walls of nonsense because I have no agenda to get some townie lynch and trade with him one for one. If people were being dumb enough to believe your ridiculous claim, yes, I would have to maybe argue a bit more, but lucky that isn't needed. On December 08 2012 03:01 sandroba wrote: What would you like me to add? I made my stance pretty clear on everybody in this game. On December 08 2012 03:16 sandroba wrote: Actually it's paused for 120 hours. We were supposed to lynch Shiaopi 5 days ago. Sandroba, you're not making this easy. Even if you say you're not being lazy, what are these posts if not lazy? They don't contribute anything, they don't add any new information to the thread, they do absolutely nothing. If this goes on, I'll start having some serious trouble believing you're town and still playing like this. | ||
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On December 08 2012 03:20 Keirathi wrote: ##Unvote austinmcc ##Vote sandroba My gut right now says that despite all the reasons to believe his claim is bullshit, that austin is just trying too hard to be scum. Alright, I'm in as well. ##Unvote austinmcc ##Vote Sandroba At the very least this should force Sandroba to do something useful today. And considering austinmcc's devotion to pushing the discussion today, I'm starting to have cold feet about austinmcc flipping red. | ||
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On December 08 2012 07:17 debears wrote: Lol. You know what I am paranoid about. You and sandro both being scum o.O It would be an epic strategy on your guys' part if you are both scum LOL | ||
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On December 08 2012 07:17 debears wrote: Lol. You know what I am paranoid about. You and sandro both being scum o.O It would be an epic strategy on your guys' part if you are both scum That would really be the double bus of the decade. | ||
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The other remaining scummy player is Lazermonkey (I guess there have to be 4 Mafia considering we have tons of blue roles as well). Here he says he'll have lots of time today: On December 07 2012 06:20 Lazermonkey wrote: Btw, I'm going to bed now. Will have alot of time tomorrow. What does he do today? Basically.... nothing at all. He could have as well been invisible. He did make some posts, but nothing to make even the slightest difference concerning the lynch. This is not how town caring about the lynch plays. This is how Mafia caring only about himself plays. To sum up the situation, we have: Practically confirmed townies BlazingHand MrZentor Keirathi Very likely townies based on activity and effort (and other things) austinmcc debears Likely Mafia ShiaoPi Lazermonkey From the looks of it, this game is pretty much over already. We can almost certainly still afford 1/2 mislynches, but if ShiaoPi/Lazermonkey are both Mafia (which almost must be the case, unless there's only one Mafia left), we should win even if we couldn't afford any more mislynches. I'm pretty certain that we have 4 Mafia, or this setup would be just too unfair for Mafia. Even then, this is feeling a bit too easy, and the setup is called "paranoia", so I'm a bit paranoid. Maybe there's some dangerous third role? Or maybe the Mafia have still some ace up their sleeves? Who knows. But the important question now is, should we lynch ShiaoPi or Lazermonkey first. Whichever is fine with me, although I think I'd prefer ShiaoPi. Opinions? austinmcc, I think you should definitely watch Keirathi or BlazingHand (*maybe* MrZentor...). I'm pretty sure that one of them will be hit tonight. Or maybe you'll get killed, but there isn't really anything you could do about that. I think it's almost impossible that I or debears would be killed, considering that we're the only realistic mislynch options left at this point. | ||
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On December 08 2012 08:41 Blazinghand wrote: you did! you really did. lol well good thing nobody listend to me except you Yeah, it's all your fault that we almost mislynched! Lesson learned: don't listen to BlazingHand | ||
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On December 08 2012 09:02 Keirathi wrote: I actually think LazerMonkey looks way worse than ShiaoPi right now. Why so? | ||
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On December 09 2012 03:50 DoYouHas wrote: Well, I definitely had my share of bad play this game. But at least I shot well and my most certain scumread was actually scum. gg Good job on shooting VE! And you were right about LM, yeah. Not about me though | ||
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