EPTParanoia Mafia
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DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
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DoYouHas
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DoYouHas
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I'm happy to see Marv/BH/VE in here. With those 3 there is no reason the thread should be inactive. I'm perhaps overly cautious of Ace. His reputation obviously precedes him. Never having played with him paired with the knowledge that he can be a devastatingly effective scum leader makes me a little paranoid. As always, I am in favor of lurker lynching on day1 unless a better candidate shows up (which it inevitably will). | ||
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DoYouHas
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On November 30 2012 09:03 Xatalos wrote: Heheh.. What ever should I do. Clearly I've been found out! Well that is a suspicious way of responding to BH's vote. ##Vote Xatalos | ||
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DoYouHas
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What I see are multiple posts that seem uncomfortable and uncertain. His attempt at making a joke out of BH's vote just seems awkward. Making light of confrontation is classic avoidance behavior, something that I think is more likely to be true because of the awkward phrasing. You could very well be right that this is just noob Xata being genuinely uncomfortable with the start of the game. But you are foolish if you dismiss such classically scummy behavior just because there is a different explanation. PS: I don't think you are going to like me very much given your advice to Xata. I spend quite a bit of time on my posts regardless of alignment. | ||
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DoYouHas
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On November 30 2012 10:29 debears wrote: DoYouHas Why are you trying to paint such a picture on ace? Sure, he is a forefather of TL Mafia, and I'm sure all of us are aware of his ability. But why try to focus on his scumplay so much over his town play? As I recall, he is also a pretty darn good town player. Stating how you are overly cautious of him (implying somewhat to others that they should also be) just because he's a good mafia player doesn't seem like something a townie would do Because it does the dual job of accurately explaining my feelings towards him to start the game and hopefully stirring up a little fear towards him so that people don't sheep him quite as readily. If he ends up taking a town leader role, I want him to earn it instead of being ushered into it on his reputation. | ||
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DoYouHas
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On November 30 2012 10:46 debears wrote: That doesn't make any sense. I'm not going to sheep someone cuz of their reputation. I'm going to sheep if their case 1) makes sense 2) is good 3) I believe they are town If he takes a town leader position, it'll be because of those things. Not because of his reputation ##Unvote ##Vote DoYouHas So this particular bit of my intentions doesn't apply to you personally, congratulations. Have you honestly never been in a game where someone's opinion was given more weight simply because of their reputation? I have, and I hate it. I can't comprehend how you construe my somewhat subtle attempt at working against that as scummy. On November 30 2012 11:12 debears wrote: Also, on DoYouHas I'm curious as to why in the fuck he puts such suspicion on Ace and Ace's scumplay when Ace has a higher probability of rolling town than scum (15 players, what 4 scum scum is the norm? so thats 11/15 chance of town, 4/15 for scum). Why does he want to make everyone cautious of him before he even makes any posts? Also, Marv is good at scum. He's only lost 1 game if I recall correctly. Why not mention marv in there also? Why is he scared of Ace this early? That's my reasoning I have no idea what you mean by "such suspicion". You act like I'm actively trying to get Ace lynched based purely on his potential scumplay. I'm not. I'm far more focused on Xatalos. Everyone has a higher probability of rolling town than scum. This is in no way relevant to me wanting the rest of the town to be cautious of giving Ace influence due to his reputation. I dislike arguing this point with you because currently Ace seems to have no interest in leading the town. You want to kill me off by blowing a small thing in my first post out of proportion. I've explained my intent twice now. Either you are happy with it or you are not. I'm moving on. | ||
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DoYouHas
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What bothers me the most, what I am hung up on, and what I just can't seem to drop is your response to BH's vote and then your response to my vote. On November 30 2012 09:03 Xatalos wrote: Heheh.. What ever should I do. Clearly I've been found out! On November 30 2012 09:10 DoYouHas wrote: Well that is a suspicious way of responding to BH's vote. ##Vote Xatalos On November 30 2012 09:12 Xatalos wrote: Maybe I underestimated the usefulness of these fluff posts. At least it beats inactivity and gives "something" to work with, opposed to an empty thread. Every little bit of info can help later on. Although nothing even nearly decisive has been said yet. I have already pointed out how Xata's response to BH's vote is classic avoidance behavior. Town tends to get mad when someone votes them, they tend to deny, they tend to confront their accuser. Especially since it was a vet accusing a newer person, that is the kind of reaction I would expect. Then comes Xata's response to my vote: "Maybe I underestimated the usefulness of these fluff posts." AGAIN, he avoids the confrontation, he avoids saying that I am wrong. In fact, in both cases he is essentially saying that we are right, "jokingly" of course. Later his rather weak attempts at misrepresenting my argument against him pop up. - Accusing me of bandwagoning - My choice of voting Xata was largely based on a reaction of his after BH's vote. This brought the count of people voting Xata to 2, some bandwagon. - Accusing me of not providing reasoning with my vote - The reasoning was there with my vote. I thought that his way of answering BH's vote was highly suspicious. The later posts simply expanded upon that. - Accusing me of being half-hearted - Simply because I admit the possibility that what I read as scummy could also be the result of nooby uncertainty doesn't change that I think I'm right about this one. I also dislike the number of qualifying statements he has been putting in his posts recently: On November 30 2012 20:05 Xatalos wrote: Right now I see DarthPunk, austinmcc and debears as the most likely townies. I would also include marvellosity, but something is bothering me. Probably it's the fact that his posts have been too vague/fluff to really contribute so far... Although I might be just extra careful, since he was my coach earlier. And WBG, why are you only asking questions? I can't say it's either townish or scummy, really, but I'd like to see your own opinions and reasoning instead of pushing the responsibility to others. Especially since it is a Mafia tactic I've used to focus on asking questions. On December 01 2012 03:14 Xatalos wrote: Hmm, I guess so. Certainly it'd be more useful to give a town read with strong evidence backing it up. I've been in a situation where I placed a town read on the most active Mafia player and never believed he was Mafia until it was already too late. My intuition isn't infallible after all... Even so, it seems more productive to focus on those players who don't appear interested in pushing the discussion. On December 01 2012 04:16 Xatalos wrote: Well, it's always good to post real content in my eyes. Maybe some of my suspicions faded, but I still don't have a good feeling about you (sorry  ). Something about that post just feels forced... Like it were a tactical move to look better instead of actually having a beneficial effect on the thread.I'm used to blowing things out of proportions though. I'll have to consider my vote a lot more until I can be satisfied with having catched a strongly likely Mafia. Many of you seem to have stopped suspecting Xata because he is accepting your coaching, or because he is starting to participate more and you are uncomfortable lynching an active poster. Xatalos is certainly not a passive mafia player (Newbie Mini XV filter). We are allowing Xata to take up a position where he is excused from multiple bad plays, suspicious behavior, and weak cases simply because some of you think he is a noob that needs to be coached instead of scum that needs to be lynched. You are wrong, I'm fairly confident I've found scum. Let's lynch Xatalos | ||
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DoYouHas
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DoYouHas
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On November 30 2012 08:47 Xatalos wrote: The beginning of this game is quite... different... from newbie games Trolling seems to be the norm. Somehow I just don't like making yourself artificially harder to read. It's kind of like a selfish metagame plan to confuse other players - not to help your team. What's the point in establishing yourself as a null read? Except denying meaningful information from scumhunting?to a troll post in the space of 16 minutes? Simply because MrZ told you to loosen up because being too uptight looks suspicious? | ||
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DoYouHas
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DoYouHas
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If Darth is scum, what would you say he has been trying to achieve in the thread before he started defending himself? Who else do you think is implicated by Darth's play up to this point? | ||
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DoYouHas
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Why, when we are in the last 1/4 of the day, are you spreading your suspicion over 3 people instead of picking your pony and trying to get them lynched? You only state which of the 3 of us you find most suspicious when asked later. (Though, the choice probably wasn't that hard since your vote was already on VE.) You seem much more concerned with showing that you have a stance than actually pursuing someone's lynch. The rest of you - This is not the behavior of a townie. Arguing against a non-existent threat shows that Xata is still feeling pressure long after it has stopped. This is because Xata feels the need to go the extra mile to prove he isn't scum (a scummy trait). Spreading suspicion around without actually trying to bring anyone around to lynching his target is also scummy play. A vote for Xatalos is a vote for SCUM | ||
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DoYouHas
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DoYouHas
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##Vote DarthPunk I still think we are making a mistake with Xatalos, but I agree with BH that lynching marv is a bad idea. If nothing else, I have an easier time reading marv as the game wears on. I'm a little biased towards Zealos since he is one of the few that agreed with me on Xatalos. That leaves me with DarthPunk as the only viable one to switch to. | ||
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DoYouHas
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You think I'm not scumhunting? I found scum, I pursued him, and I spent the rest of my time trying to persuade the rest of you. Good luck all, you are going to need it. You vets should know better. These last minute switches never hit scum. | ||
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DoYouHas
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DoYouHas
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DoYouHas
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I cannot comprehend how there is so much doubt around my claim. You all must think I have balls of steel. My claim was in a farewell post, made ON the deadline. I didn't think it would save me. Nor can I think of a single example of scum claiming like that only to have themselves proven a liar 30 seconds later with the nightpost. I also didn't think claiming earlier would have saved me (which would have been like 10 minutes earlier, as that was when I sat back down to watch the nightpost). If there is something you should have learned about me from this game, or from looking at my previous games, is that I play slow, I try to write carefully, and I can be single-minded when I think I am right. None of these aspects fit with trying to spit out my few reads before I am mislynched and then a frustrated farewell (if I am scum). They do fit with a townie me, who is suddenly pressed for time to contribute what little I can before you kill me. You have all put me in a terrible position. Why? because all scum have to do is roleblock me tonight and you will all lynch me tomorrow and do their job for them. But whatever, there isn't anything I can do about that. I'll just try and catch scum in the time I have left, and hopefully that will convince you that I'm town. | ||
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DoYouHas
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Think back to early in day 1 where debears was really going after me for my first post which boiled down to me not wanting people to sheep Ace because he was Ace. The back and forth between us lasted longer than it probably should have, but at the end of it one thing was sure. Nobody was going to be overtly sheeping Ace based on reputation. So then there were a couple posts which caught my eye from Ace: On December 01 2012 11:41 Ace wrote: Between VE, marv and that useless spambot BH something is off. I highly doubt all 3 are town and wouldn't be surprised if 2 of them were Scum or anti-town. At first I was reading and concentrating on the debears-ShaoiPi-DYH interaction but Blazinghand showed up and derailed it all. I was going to call him out for that terrible case on MrZ but he reneged on it, only to bring up a few more terrible cases on various people in the same format with no real effort to convince people on any of them. On December 02 2012 06:44 Ace wrote: No it just happens that those people caught my attention. Marv and BH were the ones I mentioned yesterday after the weird ShaoPi-VE-DP interaction. The thread just went an entire different direction after those 2 showed up. Other observations I'm keeping to myself for now. No need to point fingers all over the place. What do these posts do? they certainly don't provide any explanation for anything that he is saying. What I see them doing is spreading suspicion. Suddenly 3 of the more veteran players in the game besides Ace have 'something off' about them. "I highly doubt all 3 are town" is an easy statement to make as it reflects what pretty much all of us are thinking, but he takes it a step further and suggest that 2/3 are more likely than not to be scum. And what reasons do we have to suspect those three that we didn't have before Ace posted? None. Ace simply invites us to entertain the possibility, throws the weight of his name behind it, and let's our fears of being against a powerful scum team fill in the reasons for him. Then we get the debears-Shaoipi-DYH interaction (a strange name since I'm pretty sure I haven't interacted with Shaoipi). Now there are 3 more people that have had an interaction which caught Ace's eye. Again, Ace has managed to direct people's attention to targets of his choice without ever providing a reason aside from "I'm Ace". The interaction, renamed the Shaoipi-VE-DP interaction in the second post, but, as far as I can tell, is referencing the same thing as the first post (I could be wrong, but Ace certainly didn't make it easy on me, since he gives no details and no explanations) is now "weird". So what do those posts do? At their face they are meant to make us think that he is scumhunting, looking at things which your average player doesn't grasp. But what they actually do is prey on people's instinct to think "there must be something to these suspicions if Ace is spending his time on it". Ace wasn't trying to lead the town down the right or wrong path, he was simply facilitating the town destroying each other. P.S. It is also possible that he really just didn't give a crap about the town. It would really irritate me if he was playing against his win condition by making no attempt to win the rest of the town to his reads. Good night. | ||
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DoYouHas
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On December 02 2012 23:53 MrZentor wrote: Why hasn't DYH posted his role pm yet? -.- Because it doesn't prove anything. However, there is no reason not to, so here you go. + Show Spoiler [Role PM] + You are a manic paranoiac clone of Chell. You aren't entirely sure why robots scare the piss out of you so bad, but they do. Sometimes you think you see one in a random place. These days, instead of a portal gun, you carry a 9mm. Unfortunately, you're a terrible shot and only have one magazine, so you'll only get to kill one person. Hopefully you pick the right one. (1 shot vigi.) | ||
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DoYouHas
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@Keirathi - You keep bringing up that BH seemed to know that there was no roleblock by slipping that either marv or my action would go through. I completely agree that if they had a RB they would have used it to deal with both of us. (The only exception in my mind is if they really thought I was going to kill another townie for them.) Because of the unlikelihood that mafia have a RB and just chose not to use it, it makes even less sense that BH would have done his last second voteswitch to save me if he was scum. If they had no clear way of stopping both my action and marv's, scum stepping in to help save a vig when literally 30 seconds of "I didn't refresh the page" would have killed me is beyond dumb for scum to do. If one of the main reasons you are suspicious of BH is true, then you are only making it LESS likely that he would have voteswitched. P.S. Sandroba made the same slip here. | ||
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DoYouHas
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DoYouHas
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On December 04 2012 03:39 wherebugsgo wrote: The only reason scum wouldn't have an RB is if there are 4 of them. That's not that out of the question considering that this game is 15 players. Even with 4 players, DT and vig are 2 very strong town roles in a mini. I would expect mafia to have a rb and a gf. It is also possible that mafia was simply stacked with vet players and got less powers as a result. Something I'm considering at least. Past that I don't really want to speculate because of the closed/themed nature of the setup. | ||
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DoYouHas
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The votelist for DP is the one that interests me the most, it had the longest time for the wagon to build, so should have had the best chance of drawing at least 1 scum vote onto it. DarthPunk (5)<---- Has been lynched I'm town. marv was town. I have a very good reason to believe BH is not scum. I have a townread on debears. That leaves Lazermonkey as the only person I think could be mafia on a list where I'm pretty sure there is a mafia. Look at the post where Lazer votes DP. + Show Spoiler + On December 01 2012 18:48 Lazermonkey wrote: Just woke up... I really don't get how you can read so much into the Ace vote TBH. It was a joke obviously And it was less then one hour from game starting so I he was hardly in any danger at all. The fact that you are even using this as an argument against me is mind boggling. Also, I see how you can say that I don't have any reads yet when it's quite clear that he have a scum read on ShiaoPi...While I think WBG post about me was weak, DP ''case'' is FAR worse. This post is taken heavily out side of context. I said this to show how stupid ShiaoPi's arguments against Xata were. So if anything I am taking a stance AGAINST ShiaoPi. While it is true I had a null read on Xata at the time of this post(still do) that is totaly and utterly irrelavant. I don't really see how me making null reads on some players is making me scum. And the funny thing is, you find that my argument for saying that they are null makes me even more scummy. What a fucked up logic is that? So it would be better for me to simply say that they are null without even an explanation? If some action from some could be considered scummy or townie and it all comes down to WIFOM to determ which one it is, don't you think that is a null tell? While I may not have phrased myself in an optimal way I don't get how you can say that: ''You did not read the post where Xata explained his post very carefully, but why would you make a pressure against him then?'' = ''shiao you are town and made what I perceive to be an error.'' Like WTF, there is a huge diference between theese two. While a) could be done by a really crappy town player it also can be motivated from scum PoV. And saying that there is a 50% chance for either of my estimations is bullcrap. It comes down to which of the explanations you think is more likely. He obviously either did a) or b) but it doesn't really matter unless he is a bad town player in which case we might have to reconsider. But Afaik ShiaoPi is quite experienced player, no? Several times in this post DP are taking things out of context and he missinterprets ALOT of stuff. He is trying to make me look far worse than I in fact. There isn't any reason for this for town. Also notice how close after WBGs post this came. While I'd say it's quite unlikely that scum team WBG and DP would make a push at the same time against me, I think it's perfectly resonable to say that DP saw WBGs post and thought there were a decent chance to cause a bandwagon on me. DP just rose immensley on my scum-o-meter. While I am still suspicious of ShiaoPi because he is yet to come back and give a satisfying answer I think DP is looking worse. ##Unvote ##Vote DarthPunk DP is voting Lazer because he doesn't like the number of null reads Lazer has been giving out, and he didn't like Lazer's given reasons for voting Shiaopi. Lazer is not wrong that DP didn't do a great job showing why Lazer's reasons for voting Shiaopi were bad. However, Lazer doesn't stop with just defending himself. Instead he goes right past that and OMGUS votes DP. Thoughts? | ||
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DoYouHas
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DoYouHas
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1. Your point about WBG not having a single comment about me despite me being the obvious person to switch to to avoid a DP lynch. I only became the obvious person to switch to about 13-10 minutes before the deadline, until then it was marv or zealos. It is possible that he was actively lurking between his posting at 7:40 and 8:16, but the way his 8:16 post reads just doesn't make that seem too likely. WBG, just like everyone, had about a 10 minute window from when I became a hot topic to the deadline in order to chime in on me. That he didn't is not very condemning. 2. Just because you had a townread on marv early does not make that true for everyone else. I certainly did not, I was going to switch my vote to him (instead of DP) from Xata until the claim and until I thought it through a bit more. Something was definitely a little off about his play, I don't think I was the only one who picked up on that. Him being a DT ended up explaining that difference. WBG pushing someone you think is town is a good reason to suspect him, it is not good evidence to convince anyone else that you are right. 3. The list of player mentions wasn't worthless. It would be wrong to put too much weight into it. But knowing who VE was comfortable discussing is helpful. Using the words of a confirmed scum (who didn't think he would be dying btw) is never a bad place to start. It is a firm place to stand to leverage your new reads. WBG's attack on Shiaopi based in analysis of what VE said wasn't the best case, but it wasn't horrid either. Scum DO often refer to each other like that early on when making short lists of reads. It gives them wiggle room to make a decision on bussing or supporting their teammate later on when they are more comfortable with the direction of the town. 4. Your meta analysis isn't convincing. You show that WBG bit back at Erandorr. However, what I gathered from that was that quite a few of the town was backing Erandorr up. This is a major difference between your example meta and this game. In this game you are one of the few people pushing WBG, more people seem to feel he is town. He is under no threat of lynch(day1), and nobody seemed to take your case and run with it. You are expecting WBG's response meta to be the same between a situation where he feels under threat of lynch and one where he doesn't. It just doesn't hold up. | ||
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DoYouHas
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On December 04 2012 07:35 wherebugsgo wrote: I did, and I thought marv was scummier. This is interesting, I might have to take back my #1. I had assumed that WBG wasn't actively lurking towards the deadline, but this post seems to contradict that. | ||
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I think my vote analysis of Lazer is sound, and is enough to make him a great lynch, which is why I haven't really dug into him. Clearly the rest of you don't agree, and would prefer a wall of text case -_-. Keirathi inherited my scum read on Ace, tunneled BH like crazy in the face of a good reason to believe BH town, and had weak views elsewhere when pressed. I agree that WBG has been detrimental to town and I wouldn't be surprised if he did argue with marv to keep marv occupied. I still have to vote with my strongest read, and that is Lazer. ##Vote Lazermonkey | ||
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DoYouHas
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Keirathi/austin - I'll redirect my question that I asked WBG (but he seems to want to ignore) to both of you. What did you think of my vote analysis that led me to Lazer? If you disagree, why? | ||
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I think I was wrong about Keirathi. VE's talking towards Ace sounds exactly like buddying. I don't see VE and Ace being on a scumteam together. I'm even more confident in my read of Lazer. (My Original Case) + Show Spoiler [VE's Mention's of Lazer] + On December 01 2012 02:37 VisceraEyes wrote: Truth. Something to do with pack mentality, wanting to fit in, etc. etc. Reading what I've missed y'all, hopefully there's more than discussing whether or not people are going to sheep Ace. :/ On December 01 2012 10:40 VisceraEyes wrote: Bugs I looked at marv earlier. It's not his job to keep the thread coherent, it's his job to find and lynch scum...which he's doing a better job than you of at present (pending reading up on Monkeynutz which I haven't done.) You got anything other than "Yeah what Ace said"....which is nothing btdubz. On December 01 2012 11:52 VisceraEyes wrote: Depends on your definition of quality. His observation of Lazer was pretty accurate, if a little hypocritical. However, town and scum are hypocritical in equal measure, so that's pretty null imo. For reference, that third quote is Ace responding to what he thinks about WBG's play. -First quote. A complete nothing interaction. Null to scummy. -Second quote. Shows he was already paying close attention to the early pressure WBG put on Lazer. Also, VE is making an excuse for not properly looking into Lazer up until this point. Where was the pressure for him to do this? (In his own head, because Lazer is scum.) -Third quote. Without ever looking to push, explain, or analyze Lazer, VE comes out saying that WBG was pretty accurate in his observations about Lazer. Those observations were ~3 negative points ending in a vote. VE agrees with Bugs that Lazer has been acting scummy, but what does he do then? Nothing. Scum do not simply allow scummy looking town to be left alone. They push them to make it seem like they are scum hunting, they defend them to show that they are right if that person flips later. VE's 3rd post is distancing, plain and simple, there is no other explanation. I do not like a WBG lynch anymore. The interactions between WBG and VE give me far more of a town read than a scum read. You can get some of that from when bugs is mentioned in my case on Lazer above, more if you read VE's filter. Also there are Bugs' original questions: On November 30 2012 12:23 wherebugsgo wrote: Questions: Why is Blazinghand so useless? Why has VE not complained about the lack of scumhunting? Why did Lazermonkey find the need to vote Ace before telling us all he'd be on later? Why does Xatalos seem scummy but has received the most attention, but not that many votes? I find myself questioning a lot in this game. In his first post Bugs is calling out both VE and Lazer, and later he votes Lazer with pretty good reasoning. I hope I have finally convinced you of Lazer's guilt. And if you grant me that, it is very unlikely for a scum to use his first post to call out 2 of his teammates, and then follow through with a case on one of them. | ||
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DoYouHas
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Lazer is scum. BH, my reasons for voting Lazer are not lazy. I came to the same conclusion from looking into both the voting patterns and VE's filter. I was ready to rethink my assumptions when I was filtering WBG and VE. Indeed, I did exactly that for both Keirathi and WBG. BUT, my conviction on Lazer was only strengthened. BH classified my analysis of VE's posting on Lazer to be 'soft defending'. This makes me wonder if he even read it. The ONLY mention that could be construed that way was the first one where Lazer made a generalization about people's behavior and VE responded with "truth". It was a nothing interaction, not soft defending, and I classified it as such. Hypothetical - If I was to come out with a PBPA on Lazer now, what would happen? You all would ignore me even more than you are now because you would assume I was tunneling Lazer, just like I tunneled Xata. I gave you the evidence that convinced me, and you are all fools to ignore it. It is time to wake up and smell the coffee town, neither of our candidates today are scum. And in true BH style, I will eat my hat if I'm wrong. ##Unvote Lazermonkey ##Vote Shiaopi | ||
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DoYouHas
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On December 05 2012 06:18 austinmcc wrote: HYPOTHETICAL LAND. You're scum this game. WBG is town. WBG and sandroba are both vets with solid scumhunting credentials. sandroba not a lynch option, because he looks townie. Aren't you going to make the play to try and get WBG lynched? If that's true, in the same way we've looked at "someone voting for x probably scum," there is almost certainly scum on WBG if he's town. Saves you an early NK on someone you were going to have to get rid of, and you let town do most of the heavy lifting. Do you agree with that thought process, that scum would be delighted to mislynch town WBG today? If so, who, out of the folks on WBG, do you think is scum? If I was scum, I wouldn't care which of those two got lynched. Killing Shiaopi won't make WBG's detractors go away or the other way around. WBG is the stronger scumhunter between the two, but arguments over him also occupy more thread space. Killing WBG gets him out of the way. Letting him live will hurt the day 3 discussion since we will keep arguing over him like a dog with a bone. | ||
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##Unvote Shiaopi ##Vote WhereBugsGo This whole situation is stupid. WBG should serve as a better wakeup call than Shiaopi to illustrate my point, sry bugs. | ||
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##Vote Lazermonkey You are going to lynch bugs with or without me, so I'm sticking my vote back on scum. | ||
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On December 05 2012 07:50 austinmcc wrote: I am currently not of the mind that there's a "scum pair." I imagine there's more than 0, and less than 4, scum between you guys. How convenient that we would have to kill 3-4 of them in order to confirm your theory. Scumlist: Lazermonkey, austinmcc, zealos/xata | ||
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DoYouHas
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Exempting yourselves, myself, and Keirathi from scum possibilities the remainders are:
Sandroba and debears seem townie to me, you both seem to agree, let's remove them from the list:
If we indeed have 2 pairs of town aligned masons, then it only makes sense that there are at least 4 mafia in the game. That means there should be 3 mafia in the 4 names I just presented. But if that is true, that means that at least one or both of Xatalos/Lazer is scum. And if one or both of them is scum, it drastically reduces the chances that Shiaopi is scum with them. If you don't understand why, then do some time rereading. Take that name off the list.
There is your scumteam. There are two things that could throw my thinking out the window. 1. I could be wrong about sandroba and debears. I don't think I am, but it is possible. 2. You (Mrz & BH) could be mafia in spite of everything. I would much rather confirm my thinking by lynching Lazer, but if you actively oppose me in this, it had better be because you don't agree that keir/sandro/debears are town. Otherwise I am forced to assume that you are scum. | ||
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DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
On December 05 2012 09:29 austinmcc wrote: DYH, I follow you down the rabbit hole. But your conclusion is wrong. Or at least your scumteam is wrong. Please, walk me through your current suspicions. Surely you have it narrowed down a fair bit yourself by now. | ||
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DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
I must say, your points on MrZ are reasonable. Perhaps I should not have excluded him so readily. (Especially since scum don't seem to have a RBer.) | ||
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DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
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DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
On December 05 2012 22:19 sandroba wrote: Xatalos is most likely not scum. The random Shiaopi isn't scum makes no sense. If you look carefully of how the day went the most likely scenario is that he is indeed scum, given the counter wagons and the hopping out of his wagon as soon as it became clear that there was a possibility of him not being lynched. I don't agree that debears looks townie. I would put him toghether with lazer and austin as the possible remaining scum (besisdes shiaopi). These mason claims I'm going to look into some more. 4 masons does seem like a lot, but I never before have seen scum claiming it. What I am hearing is that you are behind a Lazer lynch tomorrow, and we can work from there. | ||
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DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
This sequence of posts On December 02 2012 08:59 debears wrote: I have a feeling we could confirm most of town right now.........garrrrrrrrrr On December 02 2012 09:01 debears wrote: My role pm is different from the two presented so far On December 02 2012 09:03 debears wrote: Because its different in a way scum would not know On December 02 2012 09:05 debears wrote: Actually nvm. I think we should save it for lylo It could be helpful. EVERYONE WHO IS TOWN. LOOK AT YOUR ROLE PM COMPARED TO MARV'S AND THE ONE REVEALED TO BE DP'S DON'T REVEAL IF IT'S DIFFERENT YET. WAIT UNTIL LYLO IF NEED BE THEN REVEAL On December 02 2012 09:06 debears wrote: No joke I might have won us the game at lylo On December 02 2012 09:29 debears wrote: Ok scratch the role claim idea at lylo. I let jingle know the situation. I don't want to break the game for a stupid role pm play. Let's win this for real :D This seems to me like a genuine sequence of posts. This looks to me like he looked at his role PM, realized it was different than marv's PM and DP's PM, and realized that if we mass claimed all at once it would reveal something that would confirm town. (My first thought was that if mafia got copies of role PM's instead of unique ones then a mass claim would reveal double claims, giving us a bunch of 50/50 lynches. However, I don't know what debears plan actually was, but I believe he did come up with something, and he did interact with host about it.) If you think debears is scum, then you think that this whole sequence was an elaborate lie, because it is certainly townie otherwise. Why I read Shiaopi as town + Show Spoiler + Lazer is scum. If you look at Lazer's filter, he has been going pretty consistantly after Shiaopi from day1. It also doesn't look like your standard distancing play from Lazer. It looks like he is actually pushing Shiaopi. So I ask you, which is more likely. Did Lazer decide early on to go with a bussing strat when there was very little reason to? Or did Lazer go after Shiaopi because Shiaopi's play so far is exactly what inexperienced scum look for in a target? The latter is far more likely. Why Xatalos should seriously be on the table for scum + Show Spoiler + What has Xata actually done since day1? He has played the reasonable middleground this entire game. Nobody else finds that suspicious? Look at his most recent post. He is willing to admit that austin makes sense for a scumteam, but is only willing to push him after we lynch Shiaopi. (Shiaopi flips town, Xata can freely back off his accusation of austin. Then come out with a post saying that as improbable as it is, the only team that makes sense includes BH/MrZ or debears/Sandro. Nicely deflecting at least 2 lynches away from himself, austin, and Lazer.) | ||
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DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
GL Town! | ||
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DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
gg | ||
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DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
E: If I had realized early the scum's willingness to bus Shiaopi it would have made my case against Lazer all the more believable and would have made me less blind to Sandro. | ||
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