|
Lazer, if you're still around, let's have a chat. I wanted to look you over and was, but now you're here. Hooray!
You, along with all other not-mes, find my actions ridiculous and don't believe my claim. Okay. So then, about my play:
(1) You think my play is less optimal as town than as scum. Go into that, why? You think I didn't play out D2 properly if I had a red check. But that applies equally to not playing out my D2 properly if I was going to do this as scum. Especially given that I can easily make up other things as scum. Why is one less optimal than the other?
(2) Have you looked at the past games I listed? Do they matter to you? Should they?
As to you, I see a mix of posts in your filter. Mostly short ones. Some longer ones when you respond, make a case on ShiaoPi, actually get involved. But apart from throwing in some general musings on WBG/ShiaoPi and masons, and your case on ShiaoPi, I don't get the feeling there's much there. DYH was worried about you yesterday, and now he's a bit deceased.
So, some questions. At the end of each night, you've given two massive posts of reads. Why? Why not give them throughout the night? Why are most of your reads only ever popping up this late? Moreover, your reads on Sandroba haven't exactly been townie...
On December 03 2012 08:00 Lazermonkey wrote:
DI/Sandroba I cannot comment on really. There isn't anything to comment on in fact.
On December 06 2012 07:59 Lazermonkey wrote:Sandroba - I haven't done very much analysis on him either. However one of his posts earlier today caught my attention a bit. Show nested quote +On December 05 2012 21:28 sandroba wrote:
wow. you guys. really. you make me sad.
Remember that Sandrobawas not present during the lynch. Not even close, He basically went afk about 12 hours before it. Also, he doesn't actually comment on anything regarding the lynch. Just that it's bad. Saying stuff like this risk to demoralize town. So why would someone as town say this? I really don't see the motivation for it. Not really lych worthy but still. I will look more closely into sandroba later.
You don't see a town motivation for a post Sandroba made. That's basically your only comment on Sandroba. Did you ever go look at Sandroba? If not...why not? Especially given he's a major player in today's lynch, why haven't you looked at him?
|
On December 07 2012 05:34 debears wrote:
Ausin, I remember after GSL III you mentioned that you love setup speculation when I asked you about it. I would like to know that why you wouldn't push BH/MrZ as scum based on setup speculation.
If they're claim was false, then there'd be a vig, cop, 2 masons, and a watcher. That's 5 blues. I would think you would be super suspicious that there would be 2 more masons.
In other words, with the knowledge that sandro is scum if you are watcher, the game would be pretty much over.
I don't see there being 7 blues. So it's either you or BH and MrZ imo.
Combine that with that fact that you watched BH last night for some reason when DYH/Keir would be the obvious nks. Especially with the fact that you should be suspicious of BH and Mrz.
WHY WOULD YOU WATCH BH AND NOT KEIR OR DYH WHEN A BH/MRZ CLAIM TRUE WITH YOURS WOULD MAKE 7/15 PLAYERS BLUE AND 4/15 THAT COULD CONFIRM THEMSELVES??????
##Vote Ausin Well for one, I'd rather push the guy I have a confirmed red check on. Right now, that's taking up a good bit of my time. That's why I'm not pushing anyone else right now (although hopefully you can see that I'm still trying to figure this game out).
As to the speculation, rawr.
I know we have 4 confirmed roles right now. Other players may know we have 4 confirmed roles, and if BH/MrZ are truthful they know we have 5 confirmed roles if not more. (Vigi, DT, WBG mason, any role the person himself has).
I AM super suspicious that there are 4 town masons. Keirathi has put more EFFORT into this game than BH/MrZ, seems to be playing Keirathi-ish. It feels a lot like I remember in Aperture, good number of posts, some good thoughts, trying to figure out the game, but never being the guy to just yell at everyone "HEY, THIS IS WHAT WE'RE DOING AND THIS IS RIGHT EVERYONE SHEEP ME." BH/MrZ have the double claim going for them, but specifically the speed at which BH counterclaimed. When I looked things back over, it's the exact same minute as Keirathi's claim. the speed adds legitimacy, because there's no way he started chatting with MrZ in scum QT and they agreed to do this, it would have been a snap call, made unilaterally by a single scum member that affected multiple scum players.
If we have 7 blues, or more, that's ridonculous. Or seems ridonculous. Options to balance that would seem to include things like a roleblocker (no claims) or something like that. There's the possibility that there are two scum teams, maybe one without KP, or both have conditional/limited KP, or some other restriction. There's the possibility it's a very large scumteam but low on powers.
I don't think I like those options more than I like thinking that one or more of our masons isn't a mason. As to why I watched BH over Keirathi and DYH, I explained that in an earlier post.
If I'm watching a mason, the snap claim still feels very strongly town to me at this point. So I'd prefer to watch BH over Keirathi. Neither is a bad scumhunter, but I'm pretty sure that Sandroba (who I knew was scum) had played more with BH. Moreover, BH/MrZ are still a mason pair. If all claims are true, Keirathi is now a VT with old mason logs. BH/MrZ are still masons. They are the bigger threat to scum, if claims true. So I'd rather watch BH over Keirathi if I'm watching a mason - why would scum try to take out the unpaired mason over the paired one. Yes, they don't want to confirm boatloads of masons, but as of yet nobody is REALLY questioning BH and MrZ's "you know your buddy is town" PMs. They are...somewhat suspect, but we're not quite there yet (at least not while I'm distracted with today's lynch).
So then, again as explained before, I'm down to BH vs. DYH. We've only seen a single night. We saw 2 KP. It's a 15-man game. Potential SK, potential 2 scum teams, potential scum team with multiple KP, or a definite KP and a limited one. And again, Sandroba knows BH better, may feel him more dangerous (if all claims true and both town). And again, BH part of an active mason pair, whereas DYH is claiming to be a one-shot vigi with no shot left.
Look at it that way. Out of the 4 claims we had, we had a mason with no mason buddy. We had a one-shot vigi who had already shot. We had an active mason pair. If those claims are true...aren't you firing into the active mason pair as scum, when you saw NO protective roles N1?
|
On December 07 2012 05:56 Lazermonkey wrote:
Austin, I explained why I think your play is very suboptimal in my post quite clear. And the reason I think your claim would be bad from scum PoV is that there probebly would have been better ways of fake claiming and try to trade 1 on 1 with town, though I haven't really thought too much about it. I think for you to be town your play would have to super duper suboptimal while as scum just slightly. Thus Ockhams razer tells me that you are scum. Where is the difference? If I'm claiming watcher with a red check on Sandroba, whether real or fake, and I'm behaving in a way that doesn't match up with my claim, why is the town claim less optimal?
You haven't actually said that. You said said it wouldn't be optimal scum play, and gave reasons why it would be bad town play. But you didn't explain why you think one is for some reason less optimal than the other. Why is it slightly bad as scum but super duper bad as town?
Regarding Sandroba, no I haven't looked into him. As a matter of fact, I haven't looked into anyone today because I was really busy IRL. Will probebly be able to do that tomorrow. I did have a slight scum read on him, yes. But I didn't feel like pushing his lynch would be very beneficial because my scum reads on other players were much stronger. You may want to look into the other lynch candidate today before voting. It would probably be a good idea to actually vote based on both of us, no?
Beyond that, what do you think about Xatalos right now?
|
On December 07 2012 05:58 Lazermonkey wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2012 05:24 Keirathi wrote:On December 07 2012 05:13 Xatalos wrote:On December 07 2012 02:55 Keirathi wrote:Argg fuck me. I can't decide if I believe austin or not. On the one hand, why would scum claim a red check when they had done nothing about ti? Like, if you I was going to fake claim with a red check, I would have at least said it was a red check on someone I had been pushing. But on the other hand, I still can't get over: On December 04 2012 05:05 austinmcc wrote:On December 04 2012 04:46 wherebugsgo wrote:w/e, RB or not it doesn't really matter. + Show Spoiler [dota] +What DOES matter is that I just went 12-2-27 as invoker and still lost. This game is like a process of elimination right now. We have established several players as town and basically we just need to kill based on the flips we saw last night. It's that simple, really. I find it odd that BH is not around and talking, but certainly he has time to do so. Also seeing as sandro agrees with me it probably means shiao is scum lolol (<3 sandro scumhunting abilities) (1) We all know that WBG raged at his team, went afk in fountain with Exort invoker, and stole all those kills/assists with Suntrike. (2) I'd like to hear more from you concering folks that aren't ShiaoPi or VE. I got not problem with you sitting back D1, but short of other claims it looks like you or sandro or DYH would be the likely mafia targets tonight. For instance, you wanted to pressure these folks: On December 02 2012 09:44 wherebugsgo wrote:
I also think we should be pressuring these players:
MrZentor
Zealos
Dandel Ion
Shiaopi
since they essentially got away with either abstaining or not doing anything all day 1. I haven't played with MrZ. I know he has a bit of a reputation. I've found him pretty clear and logical this whole game. Does that strike you as odd, or do you have a problem with that? Or does it make you think he's town? Do you still want to pressure him? Zealos hasn't posted since partway through D1. You brought him up a little in relation to VE, but what do you make of his actual posts. I didn't like them D1 when talking to LazerMonkey, BH found them townie, but you haven't said anything about the actual posts that he did make, which is all we have to go off of. I can't wrap my head around any possible motivation for that bit about sandro being shot by scum. That REALLY pushes it towards feeling like a fake claim that just forgot something he said earlier. The problem is (for austinmcc) that there was no other option. WBG is dead, Zealos is dead, DYH is dead, BH is confirmed town. Who else did he push? He casted some suspicion on ShiaoPi early on, but didn't actually pursue that at any point - actually, quite the opposite. He's been soft defending ShiaoPi after the initial suspicion. He hasn't been pushing anyone he could conveniently frame now. So, his only option is to frame some non-confirmed townie he hasn't been pushing so far (Sandroba, Lazermonkey, debears, myself). Considering that there are possibly Mafia on this list, and that I'm a strong townread for several players, Sandroba isn't really a bad/weird pick for austinmcc. Nobody has him as a high townread and he hasn't done *too* much during this game. It's not a bad bet that he could manage to get Sandroba mislynched today - at least easier than someone like myself or especially one of BH/MrZ/Keirathi. I don't see how austinmcc choosing Sandroba as Mafia is unlikely at all. You're missing the point I was trying to make. If Austin was scum and wanted to fake claim to get sandro lynched, it would have made infinitely more sense to claim after the day post and say sandro killed DYH night 2. The problem is that if Austin is town and had a red check yesterday...well pretty much anything else would have made infinitely more sense than what he actually did. I don't know how to decide if his play was terrible scum or terrible town. Well, your point is wrong. There is no fucking way in hell he would get away watching anyone but Marv N1. The fact that you even try to use arguments like this makes me wonder if you actually are town.
You are missing the point. It's not that I would have claimed to watch someone else N1. It's that I could have claimed at the start of D3 to have watched DYH N2, and seen Sandroba kill him.
Nobody is talking about watching other targets N1.
|
On December 07 2012 06:05 Lazermonkey wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2012 06:02 austinmcc wrote:On December 07 2012 05:58 Lazermonkey wrote:On December 07 2012 05:24 Keirathi wrote:On December 07 2012 05:13 Xatalos wrote:On December 07 2012 02:55 Keirathi wrote:Argg fuck me. I can't decide if I believe austin or not. On the one hand, why would scum claim a red check when they had done nothing about ti? Like, if you I was going to fake claim with a red check, I would have at least said it was a red check on someone I had been pushing. But on the other hand, I still can't get over: On December 04 2012 05:05 austinmcc wrote:On December 04 2012 04:46 wherebugsgo wrote:w/e, RB or not it doesn't really matter. + Show Spoiler [dota] +What DOES matter is that I just went 12-2-27 as invoker and still lost. This game is like a process of elimination right now. We have established several players as town and basically we just need to kill based on the flips we saw last night. It's that simple, really. I find it odd that BH is not around and talking, but certainly he has time to do so. Also seeing as sandro agrees with me it probably means shiao is scum lolol (<3 sandro scumhunting abilities) (1) We all know that WBG raged at his team, went afk in fountain with Exort invoker, and stole all those kills/assists with Suntrike. (2) I'd like to hear more from you concering folks that aren't ShiaoPi or VE. I got not problem with you sitting back D1, but short of other claims it looks like you or sandro or DYH would be the likely mafia targets tonight. For instance, you wanted to pressure these folks: On December 02 2012 09:44 wherebugsgo wrote:
I also think we should be pressuring these players:
MrZentor
Zealos
Dandel Ion
Shiaopi
since they essentially got away with either abstaining or not doing anything all day 1. I haven't played with MrZ. I know he has a bit of a reputation. I've found him pretty clear and logical this whole game. Does that strike you as odd, or do you have a problem with that? Or does it make you think he's town? Do you still want to pressure him? Zealos hasn't posted since partway through D1. You brought him up a little in relation to VE, but what do you make of his actual posts. I didn't like them D1 when talking to LazerMonkey, BH found them townie, but you haven't said anything about the actual posts that he did make, which is all we have to go off of. I can't wrap my head around any possible motivation for that bit about sandro being shot by scum. That REALLY pushes it towards feeling like a fake claim that just forgot something he said earlier. The problem is (for austinmcc) that there was no other option. WBG is dead, Zealos is dead, DYH is dead, BH is confirmed town. Who else did he push? He casted some suspicion on ShiaoPi early on, but didn't actually pursue that at any point - actually, quite the opposite. He's been soft defending ShiaoPi after the initial suspicion. He hasn't been pushing anyone he could conveniently frame now. So, his only option is to frame some non-confirmed townie he hasn't been pushing so far (Sandroba, Lazermonkey, debears, myself). Considering that there are possibly Mafia on this list, and that I'm a strong townread for several players, Sandroba isn't really a bad/weird pick for austinmcc. Nobody has him as a high townread and he hasn't done *too* much during this game. It's not a bad bet that he could manage to get Sandroba mislynched today - at least easier than someone like myself or especially one of BH/MrZ/Keirathi. I don't see how austinmcc choosing Sandroba as Mafia is unlikely at all. You're missing the point I was trying to make. If Austin was scum and wanted to fake claim to get sandro lynched, it would have made infinitely more sense to claim after the day post and say sandro killed DYH night 2. The problem is that if Austin is town and had a red check yesterday...well pretty much anything else would have made infinitely more sense than what he actually did. I don't know how to decide if his play was terrible scum or terrible town. Well, your point is wrong. There is no fucking way in hell he would get away watching anyone but Marv N1. The fact that you even try to use arguments like this makes me wonder if you actually are town. You are missing the point. It's not that I would have claimed to watch someone else N1. It's that I could have claimed at the start of D3 to have watched DYH N2, and seen Sandroba kill him. Nobody is talking about watching other targets N1. My bad then. But how would you claiming D3 after seeing DYH get killed make you look any better?
Ummmm. Maybe because EVERYONE'S ENTIRE DEAL is that I didn't play D2 like I had a redcheck on Sandroba.
So instead of claiming at the end of N2, when my play makes no sense, I claim at the start of D3 that I saw Sandroba kill DYH N2. Now my actions fit perfectly with what people want me to have done, or one course of action they wish I'd taken, and I don't have a whole day where I try to be cutesy and then pay for it.
If I'm actually scum, I had no reason to be worried about getting killed N2 (or very little?) and so I could have just waited for the start of D3, claimed then, not had this whole issue.
|
Keirathi, and anyone else who might be interested in checking.
Obs QT in from Looney Lynching also had a small amount of chatter about how I'm a tard. Post 66, marv notes that I "get too caught up in [my] own web." Ta da.
|
On December 07 2012 06:18 Lazermonkey wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2012 06:01 austinmcc wrote:On December 07 2012 05:56 Lazermonkey wrote:
Austin, I explained why I think your play is very suboptimal in my post quite clear. And the reason I think your claim would be bad from scum PoV is that there probebly would have been better ways of fake claiming and try to trade 1 on 1 with town, though I haven't really thought too much about it. I think for you to be town your play would have to super duper suboptimal while as scum just slightly. Thus Ockhams razer tells me that you are scum. Where is the difference? If I'm claiming watcher with a red check on Sandroba, whether real or fake, and I'm behaving in a way that doesn't match up with my claim, why is the town claim less optimal? You haven't actually said that. You said said it wouldn't be optimal scum play, and gave reasons why it would be bad town play. But you didn't explain why you think one is for some reason less optimal than the other. Why is it slightly bad as scum but super duper bad as town? Regarding Sandroba, no I haven't looked into him. As a matter of fact, I haven't looked into anyone today because I was really busy IRL. Will probebly be able to do that tomorrow. I did have a slight scum read on him, yes. But I didn't feel like pushing his lynch would be very beneficial because my scum reads on other players were much stronger. You may want to look into the other lynch candidate today before voting. It would probably be a good idea to actually vote based on both of us, no? Beyond that, what do you think about Xatalos right now? This should read ''Austin, I explained why I think your TOWN play is very suboptimal in my post quite clear.'' : /. Sorry if that tricked you. I said that you made ALOT of errors in your play town, if you would be town. But the only errors that comes in mind if you are scum is that the timing of the claim is a bit peciliar. But that comes down to WIFOM abit and I also don't know what roles scum have so I don't think it's a very strong point. I cannot be more precise than this tbh. Yes, and I will, like I said. But the amount of time I'm able to play today is quite limited so I decided to focus on you as I felt his alignment comes naturaly after I was able to decide yours. My read on Xata is unchanged. I haven't observed him today.
On a scale of 6 ducklings to 14 ducklings, where ducklings are comfortable, how comfortable are you with your vote right now?
|
On December 07 2012 06:21 Lazermonkey wrote:
Somewhere around 12 and a half duckling I guess?
You monster.
|
Hey hey. BH. Quit being persuasive.
|
Since you guys are around, could one of you post non-me related logs. Your logs from after BH posted last night?
|
Or heck, you can post the me stuff if you'd like. May as well.
|
Grrrrrr, YOU'RE SUPPOSED TO NOT HAVE LOGS AND THEN WE CAN ALL YELL "GOTCHA!"
|
Okay, thanks. I'm not posting my PM because
...
because of cheating rule #6, which actually isn't about role PMs, and there's another rule that specifically says role PMs are fine. gg me. I'm a bit paranoid about that after bureaucracy.
The zombie formerly known as Steve Irwin the Heartless Your years of experience watching animals and saying stupid shit like "Crikey" have given you great patience. Each night, you may move your grave to one person, and see who all visits them at night.
I've got my full name in blue. No punctuation after role. I don't have the little (common role name) at the end of it. Also I just want to see what Keirathi thinks about the PM.
|
On December 07 2012 09:39 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2012 09:38 austinmcc wrote:
Grrrrrr, YOU'RE SUPPOSED TO NOT HAVE LOGS AND THEN WE CAN ALL YELL "GOTCHA!" You claiming scum now? Sweet.
I forgot that scumhunting is something scum does.
If they're not masons, they don't have neato mason logs from somewhere. Or if they have logs from somewhere...they'd be scummier? The fact that he can pull up logs so quickly, with actual thoughts and discussion in them, shows that they're almost certainly not lying. Clears up most of my paranoia that BH mighta just gone for broke with the claim.
|
Like...in the logs BH says there are 3 scum and that we're at lylo-1.
I don't know why he knows that, but even seeing that I have a hard time thinking they're scum given the amount of actual stuff BH was just about to post without hesitation.
|
On December 07 2012 09:44 Blazinghand wrote:
but... tohr ppl posted their pms dood
See previous. We can discuss me being King in the Jub later.
|
On December 07 2012 09:48 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2012 09:44 austinmcc wrote:
Like...in the logs BH says there are 3 scum and that we're at lylo-1.
I don't know why he knows that, but even seeing that I have a hard time thinking they're scum given the amount of actual stuff BH was just about to post without hesitation. How many scum do you think there are? 4 scum is the most logical explanation. It means 4 mislynches for scum to win (3 to get to LYLO), which is the same as C9++ that doesn't have an SK. 3 scum would mean 5 mislynches for scum to win, which starts getting a lot harder.
I think it's a decent assumption. I can't say for sure. We have a boatload of blues apparently, including masons, which I think is a particularly strong role.
So in the back of my head is dumb stuff like a third party. We're a long way from that being a legitimate concern, but given that this feels like more blues than a normal game, I'm not discounting the idea there could be more scum.
|
It pretty much removes any doubt that you guys were trying to pull something. Besides, now I know that you get less blame than BH.
|
Argle bargle.
I've seen a couple "he didn't act on the redcheck." He did. He just didn't act in any of the ways you want.
BH,
The ShiaoPi vote was interesting and I thought about trying to get behind lynching him, but that doesn't do anything. That puts today off until tomorrow, because scum will just send Sandroba to kill not-me, and we'll be right back here. I'd rather get this out of the way today.
Mason logs. I asked Keirathi for his with WBG. I asked you for yours with MrZ. I asked you for follow-up, more logs, just to make sure. I'm still trying to think through this game, figure out who's the remaining scum and whether all these claims are true. I'm assuming that you can understand why I'd want to see logs, and why you posted a second set immediately clears you guys to me. Is that a scummy thought process? If I'm scum, set to be lynched today, am I really thinking about confirming our masons? Heck...NOBODY ELSE seems to have been worried about this, to want follow-up logs from you guys. Sandroba doesn't seem to want to do anything at all today, other than I guess note that I could be a traitor.
Not only am I asking for logs, I'm clearly reading though. I pick out that you talk about scum numbers, which is something that would normally be concerning (being SURE of scum numbers in a closed setup), but oh well. The logs themselves confirm you so I drop it.
If I'm scum, I'm probably not the only person in this game asking for logs to try and confirm you guys. If I'm scum, even IF I'm sneaky and ask for logs, I'm probably not reading through them.
|
If you are voting me, you are placing you vote with lazermonkey's.
Lazermonkey who said N2 he hadn't done much analysis on Sandroba, and had problems with one of Sand's posts coming from town - + Show Spoiler +On December 06 2012 07:59 Lazermonkey wrote:Sandroba - I haven't done very much analysis on him either. However one of his posts earlier today caught my attention a bit. Show nested quote +On December 05 2012 21:28 sandroba wrote:
wow. you guys. really. you make me sad.
Remember that Sandrobawas not present during the lynch. Not even close, He basically went afk about 12 hours before it. Also, he doesn't actually comment on anything regarding the lynch. Just that it's bad. Saying stuff like this risk to demoralize town. So why would someone as town say this? I really don't see the motivation for it. Not really lych worthy but still. I will look more closely into sandroba later.
Lazermonkey who drops a vote on me.
Lazermonkey who admits that he hasn't looked at Sandroba (despite voting to lynch me), but will have lots of time today! + Show Spoiler +On December 07 2012 05:56 Lazermonkey wrote:
Regarding Sandroba, no I haven't looked into him. As a matter of fact, I haven't looked into anyone today because I was really busy IRL. Will probebly be able to do that tomorrow. I did have a slight scum read on him, yes. But I didn't feel like pushing his lynch would be very beneficial because my scum reads on other players were much stronger.
This is the company you're keeping.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
